Long Game 13: Traitors on the Plains

[Emerald101]

Leftinspace's post there looks to me like it's a not-super-subtle attempt of type an eliminator might make to look like a villager.

[Mailliw73]

Truthwatchers and Lightweavers, you need to be extremely cautious in your PMs. Any Radiant who can make PMs either has a scan ability or a healing one, so any Eliminators that discover the identity of someone with the Illumination surge also can kill a scan/heal role. If we lose another, we'll be awfully disadvantaged way too early in this game. 

 

My biggest suspicions now are Leif and PK. I'll vote for Paranoid King to see what he has to say regarding his PM with Bort.

[Renegade]

Bort did indeed contact me, and said that he contacted the same players as Twelfth mentioned.  Our PM consisted mostly of us discussing general strategies (such as the one Bort suggested in-thread yesterday, which I mostly disagreed with), and some basic suspicions.  He also heavily implied that he was the Truthwatcher (rather than a Lightweaver, which could’ve been the other option).  I was a bit suspicious of him as he claimed that anyone else with PM-ing capabilities would likely be a Diagramist.

 

To me, Bort’s death seems odd because I don’t exactly see the point in a Diagramist killing Bort off right away, had they been contacted via PM.  If the Diagramists wanted to get away with killing Bort, it would’ve made much more sense had they waited a few cycles to loosen the connection between the PM and Bort’s death, or if they killed off all the players in PM contact with Bort first.  I mean, sure, if they were really afraid of Bort's protection ability, it might make sense to kill him off immediately, but with the capability to make Gravity-assisted kills, such a protection ability wouldn't exactly be a game-changer (especially since Bort seemed intent on using his charges towards PMs).

 

By no means should we discard the idea that one of the four of us killed Bort, but I feel that such a plan is sort of foolish, as it pretty much guarantees that those players would be immediately scanned or lynched.  The only exception is if the player in question is of little use to the Diagramists (i.e. inactive), which would point towards Paranoid King.  (Of course, I'm not going to leave myself out of the suspect pool, so if any of our Lightweavers/Elsecallers are suspicious of me, I have no problem being seeked this cycle.)

 

However, since Paranoid King already has accrued some votes, I’m going to put my vote on Phattemer for now, who only showed up once last cycle to poke-vote Clanky.  Yet, in that post, Phatt also said that it was important to have lynch discussion with the intent to kill.  Unless you were really certain that other players would bandwagon onto that vote, that poke-vote doesn’t seem to have an “intent to kill,” does it?

[Feligon]

Plurn sniffed the air; "someone's baking cookies," he muttered to himself.  Probably ardents.  Back home, Plurn's grandpa was the one that always baked cookies.  He made the best chocolate ship cookies ever.

 

Plurn was quickly growing bored of the march through the plains.  Nothing had tried to kill him or steal his money for a few days now.  He wondered if he should be fearing this like the calm before the storm.

 

It's probably nothing.

 

I'm interested to know what went on inside the conversation.  If anyone wanted to elaborate for me, that'd be cool.

[Macen]

Just an update on the votes:

 

Macen (1): twelthrootoftwo
Renegade (1): Macen
Paranoid King (2): Herowannabe, Maillew73

Leiftinspace (1): Emerald101

Phattemer (1): Renegade

[Emerald101]

I'm interested to know what went on inside the conversation.  If anyone wanted to elaborate for me, that'd be cool.

 

I'm wondering about this too.

[eramit]

renegade is right i think we should vote Phattemer because its VERY suspicious what he said.

[Herowannabe]

We interrupt your regularly scheduled Stormlight-themed game of intrigue and betrayal to announce the coming of a new Mistborn-themed game of intrigue and betrayal:

Crafty games just announced Final Empire: a Mistborn Board Game

Okay, seriously geeking out now.

[Macen]

We interrupt your regularly scheduled Stormlight-themed game of intrigue and betrayal to announce the coming of a new Mistborn-themed game of intrigue and betrayal:

Crafty games just announced Final Empire: a Mistborn Board Game

Okay, seriously geeking out now.

By Kevin Wilson, eh? Wilson, any relation?

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Ok, sorry for my inactivity so far this game - a myriad of personal reasons I'm afraid.

I am of the opinion that whilst it is certainly plausible that Bort was killed by someone he was communicating with, we should remember that he was also outspoken in thread - and as such we might be risking lynching a set of villagers fruitlessly - having said that though, I am somewhat in agreement with Emerald's view that leiftinspace 's post seems over like an attempt to 'seem' like a villager, and that the ooc text sounds like an attempt to dismiss conversation regarding his own contact with Bort.

I would suggest that any truthwatcher squire this coming night cycle - allowing both a mouthpiece, but also potentially a scanning charge from the highstorm.

[Emerald101]

Just getting on to say that I'll be getting on just before the end of the cycle to change/retract my vote (which I'm not super sure about) if the votes are still tied. We don't want another no-lynch like last day cycle.

 

Edit: Capitlization

Edited July 22, 2015 by Emerald101

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I was a bit suspicious of him as he claimed that anyone else with PM-ing capabilities would likely be a Diagramist.

Ditto.

 

My reasons were already more or less brought up by Ren. I had been targeted for making points about things that went against the Diagramists (with the exception of me missing the Use of Gravitation with the Diagramist kill ability).

I still think it's odd that he took everything I had said as points to help our Radiants and singled out the one oversight I had, but he stated that he was more or less doing it due to lack of information on any other front. I just had a feeling I was going to die and wanted to make sure the person I thought was the most suspicious was out there. Him being part of the Bort PM ring does back up my suspicions though. Due to this I am going to vote Renegade.

I'm not satisfied; the post weighted the player above the reasons. That said, in the interests of not lynching an active player, Macen Paranoid King.

 

My biggest suspicions now are Leif and PK.

Why not Ren or myself?

[Shallan]

We can confirm, yes, yes! Bort PMs us, yes he did. He felt that one of us four would hurts him though. Poor Bort. And poor Smeagol. No more beardnutses.

We weren't able to discuss a whole lot though. He was somewhat active toward the start of the cycle then just kinda fizzled out. [\color]

Very close. Do this: lalalalalala [/color*] minus the asterisk. Just a different slash. I'll be on more in a minute.

[leiftinspace]

Sorry. My lack of content was also due to the fact that i was on mobile at the time and its a pain. by way of explanation, he told me who he had pm'd with, voiced the same suspicions about anyone else pming that they may be an eliminator, said he wasn't one. I asked him if he could send a pm to Ronzo having him do some RP with me just by way of confirmation, and because i thought it would have been cool to see smeagol and a herdazian together. he said he hadn't seen Ronzo on in a while but would ask him. then I asked if he was a truthwatcher, he confirmed that he was. I asked him if he had a squire, and also discussed the possibility of creating a simple code whereby we may comminicate in the thread if we had suspicions of people who may or may not be refugees. And he never got back to me. then he died. 

[phattemer]

Bort did indeed contact me, and said that he contacted the same players as Twelfth mentioned.  Our PM consisted mostly of us discussing general strategies (such as the one Bort suggested in-thread yesterday, which I mostly disagreed with), and some basic suspicions.  He also heavily implied that he was the Truthwatcher (rather than a Lightweaver, which could’ve been the other option).  I was a bit suspicious of him as he claimed that anyone else with PM-ing capabilities would likely be a Diagramist.

 

To me, Bort’s death seems odd because I don’t exactly see the point in a Diagramist killing Bort off right away, had they been contacted via PM.  If the Diagramists wanted to get away with killing Bort, it would’ve made much more sense had they waited a few cycles to loosen the connection between the PM and Bort’s death, or if they killed off all the players in PM contact with Bort first.  I mean, sure, if they were really afraid of Bort's protection ability, it might make sense to kill him off immediately, but with the capability to make Gravity-assisted kills, such a protection ability wouldn't exactly be a game-changer (especially since Bort seemed intent on using his charges towards PMs).

 

By no means should we discard the idea that one of the four of us killed Bort, but I feel that such a plan is sort of foolish, as it pretty much guarantees that those players would be immediately scanned or lynched.  The only exception is if the player in question is of little use to the Diagramists (i.e. inactive), which would point towards Paranoid King.  (Of course, I'm not going to leave myself out of the suspect pool, so if any of our Lightweavers/Elsecallers are suspicious of me, I have no problem being seeked this cycle.)

 

However, since Paranoid King already has accrued some votes, I’m going to put my vote on Phattemer for now, who only showed up once last cycle to poke-vote Clanky.  Yet, in that post, Phatt also said that it was important to have lynch discussion with the intent to kill.  Unless you were really certain that other players would bandwagon onto that vote, that poke-vote doesn’t seem to have an “intent to kill,” does it?

It wasn't really a poke vote so much as a potential target. I had hoped that other people would vote for him, thus forcing a defense, and we could see who was for him, against him, etc. You can see a good example of this in LG12, especially the first few cycles. I'm certainly no expert on "lynch with intent to kill" but from the explanation in LG12 I think I understand it well enough to explain again. Basically, "lynch without intent to kill" is pointless, since Eliminators know they can just say nothing and nothing will happen. Oh I'll just quote it.

3 different things:

To quote Kas:

I think we have to distinguish between three things:

1. Lynch discussion [i.e. the discussion that goes on as we decide who is suspicious and who should be lynched, etc.]

2. Lynch kill [i.e. the actual information gleaned from someone being killed off and Hreo the GM telling us about their role.]

3. Lynch discussion with the explicit intention to kill.

 

Let me explain why these are separate things. Let's say we kill Wyrm (sorry King, I just had to pick someone no one would be twitchy about in this game.) We find out he's a Jindo Warrior example role (lolnope). That's all the information we get from the lynch kill. (2.) Now, we may get more information from the lynch discussion: e.g. who was pushing hard for Wyrm's death? Who defended Wyrm? Who abstained? Who is advocating what? Notice that this information may not even be related to Wyrm or about Wyrm. So, the information obtained from a lynch discussion (1.) is separate from the information obtained from 2. but it may complement it. It is also clearly more expansive, and in a sense, less definite.

 

Well, what about 3.? I separate this because we can simply sit here right now and agree we will kill no one today and then discuss. Or we can sit here and discuss with the intention to discover a candidate who will be lynched. I think it is important to note I say, 'with the intention'. Why? Because our discussion can be oriented around/guided by an intention that ultimately gets overruled. There is nothing that stops us from deciding at the end of Day 1 that we don't really want to lynch anyone today after all.

 

But.

 

A. If we start out saying that we shan't lynch anyone today, the lynch discussion becomes toothless because the stakes are virtually nothing. No one has any reason to comply or to participate in the discussion. 

B. Beginning with a commitment to lynching does not mean this commitment is not or should not be defeasible.

C. This is an LG. I, at least, tend to be less uptight about lynching off the bat during an LG. If it were a QF, I would not at all stress the defeasibility of an intention to lynch and would rather we lynch right away.

D. ...Mislynches happen. I don't mean to be gung-ho about lynching. My point is that if they haven't stopped us in most previous games, I find it somewhat difficult to see why they should stop us now. [unless, of course, the suggestion is we wait a day or two and then lynch. But once again, I am a supporter of 3. I think this is a decision that must emerge from discussion rather than both pre-empting and precluding it.]

Edited July 22, 2015 by phattemer

[Araris Valerian]

Wow, this cycle has been going longer than I thought. It seems that we need a lynch, since so far we have had 2 eliminator kills and we haven't made much headway with roles and whatnot. I suspect Macen, Leif and PK right now, along with Peng, although I don't think he is worth chasing right now due to inactivity. Perhaps a scan or something would be useful on him.

 

Anyway, I am suspicious of Macen because his post this cycle suggests that we should go after the PMed people with the lynch, and he implied that at least one was an eliminator, possibly more. That sounds like it could be a ploy to put the lynch off track for several cycles, and if Macen is an eliminator then he would know all four of those people's alignment.

 

Leif is suspicious because of the reasons that others mentioned in the thread; his posts seemed to deflect attention from himself and onto the other three. However, this isn't really compatible with my suspicion of Macen since it is unlikely that an eliminator would suggest and idea that could lead to scanning and/or lynching of one of their other members.

 

And PK is suspicious because he is inactive. It could be that he, as an eliminator, doesn't want to entangle team members in a defense, like Winter did in the last LG by surrendering. I would rather lynch Macen or Leif, since we would learn a bit more from killing somebody who has given some concrete info, but we also would risk losing an important contributor to discussion.

 

Edit: Greened Vote

Edited July 22, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[Alvron]

Updated vote tally because I need something to fill this post.

 

Macen (0) : Twei

Ren (1) : Macen

Paranoid (4) : Hero, Maill, Twei, Araris

Leift (3) : Emerald, Orlok. Alvron

Phatt (1): Ren, Eramit

 

I doubt PK was behind any leak of Borts PMness as he hasn't been on in 5 days.  Assuming of course that Bort was killed because he PMed an eliminator.  If I were to base my vote on that then I would be most suspicious of Leift as both Ren and Macen are far more experienced so they wouldn't make that mistake.  Seeing as Aonar isn't playing, I now feel obligated to bring up the point about how this is the sort of thing an experienced eliminator might do just to throw us off and get others lynched first.

 

Edit: Storming colours.  I'm meant to be immune to your trickery.

Edit the second: Realised I hadn't counted my vote. *head slap*  Sleepy time calls.

Edited July 22, 2015 by Alvron

[Clanky]

The problem with Alvrons reason above is that the Eliminators would discuss the kill amongst each other and it wouldn't just be the eliminator who got PMd that makes the decision of whether to kill Bort. Also I think if I were an eliminator it would definitely be worth it to rid the villagers of a Truthwatcher or Lightweaver in exchange for a little extra suspicion.

 

Since PK hasn't been on recently enough to be the leak as Alvron pointed out I will put my vote on leift for now.

[Alvron]

The problem with Alvrons reason above is that the Eliminators would discuss the kill amongst each other and it wouldn't just be the eliminator who got PMd that makes the decision of whether to kill Bort. Also I think if I were an eliminator it would definitely be worth it to rid the villagers of a Truthwatcher or Lightweaver in exchange for a little extra suspicion.

 

Since PK hasn't been on recently enough to be the leak as Alvron pointed out I will put my vote on leift for now.

Yes, they would discuss it but if I was an eliminator then I would advocate waiting a cycle or two before killing Bort as then it's not just down to those he PMed in the first night but rather all of the players.  Only four people were PMed and the names of those was given to the others as insurance should Bort be killed. (At least that's what I'm assuming.)  I doubt Ren would've taken that big a risk.  In fact I'm more inclined to believe that it was just chance that they hit a Truthwatcher and none of the others are eliminators.

 

Also PK could still have leaked the info even by not being online.  He could have it set up so the any PMs he gets is e-mailed to him.  Depending on what words Aonar uses when he sets up the PM, Borts name could've been revealed so PK could go into the Doc and reveal it that way.  

 

Any of those PMed by Bort care to reveal if Borts name was revealed in the PM when Aonar set it up?

[leiftinspace]

looks like quite the bandwagon on me. It's kinda funny that people are against doing it against experienced players because of their experience and potential threat, but don't seem to have a problem doing it with someone who is inexperienced because they think it led him to be stupid. I'll just say, first of al, that if anyone is willing and able to, please scan me. on the off chance that i survive this, you will know that I'm innocent. Bort knew that I was, but sadly he isn't around anymore to prove it. I would also like to point out that you can participate in PM's through your email without logging on to the 17th shard if you have it set up, and the eliminators have a google doc so they can communicate that way if someone just checked their email and then decided to leak info to the others that way.

 

That being said, I agree with the sentiment that has been voiced that it would not be the wisest idea to target bort immediately after him revealing himself because it would cast suspicion on those he revealed himself to. especially since he himself warned of that possibility. I don't know who to suspect, although i think I'm more suspicious of Paranoid King than the others, for those reasons that i mentioned. and if nothing else, if he's not an eliminator he is inactive, which means that he's not doing any good at the moment anyway. Finally, I just don't want to die yet, and voting for him gives me my best shot to survive this.

Edited July 22, 2015 by leiftinspace

[leiftinspace]

 

Any of those PMed by Bort care to reveal if Borts name was revealed in the PM when Aonar set it up?

yes, it was. and I'm sorry Alvron, I didn't notice you mentioning the point about the email.

[Renegade]

It wasn't really a poke vote so much as a potential target. I had hoped that other people would vote for him, thus forcing a defense, and we could see who was for him, against him, etc. You can see a good example of this in LG12, especially the first few cycles. I'm certainly no expert on "lynch with intent to kill" but from the explanation in LG12 I think I understand it well enough to explain again. Basically, "lynch without intent to kill" is pointless, since Eliminators know they can just say nothing and nothing will happen. Oh I'll just quote it.

3 different things:

To quote Kas:

I think we have to distinguish between three things:

1. Lynch discussion [i.e. the discussion that goes on as we decide who is suspicious and who should be lynched, etc.]

2. Lynch kill [i.e. the actual information gleaned from someone being killed off and Hreo the GM telling us about their role.]

3. Lynch discussion with the explicit intention to kill.

 

Let me explain why these are separate things. Let's say we kill Wyrm (sorry King, I just had to pick someone no one would be twitchy about in this game.) We find out he's a Jindo Warrior example role (lolnope). That's all the information we get from the lynch kill. (2.) Now, we may get more information from the lynch discussion: e.g. who was pushing hard for Wyrm's death? Who defended Wyrm? Who abstained? Who is advocating what? Notice that this information may not even be related to Wyrm or about Wyrm. So, the information obtained from a lynch discussion (1.) is separate from the information obtained from 2. but it may complement it. It is also clearly more expansive, and in a sense, less definite.

 

Well, what about 3.? I separate this because we can simply sit here right now and agree we will kill no one today and then discuss. Or we can sit here and discuss with the intention to discover a candidate who will be lynched. I think it is important to note I say, 'with the intention'. Why? Because our discussion can be oriented around/guided by an intention that ultimately gets overruled. There is nothing that stops us from deciding at the end of Day 1 that we don't really want to lynch anyone today after all.

 

But.

 

A. If we start out saying that we shan't lynch anyone today, the lynch discussion becomes toothless because the stakes are virtually nothing. No one has any reason to comply or to participate in the discussion. 

B. Beginning with a commitment to lynching does not mean this commitment is not or should not be defeasible.

C. This is an LG. I, at least, tend to be less uptight about lynching off the bat during an LG. If it were a QF, I would not at all stress the defeasibility of an intention to lynch and would rather we lynch right away.

D. ...Mislynches happen. I don't mean to be gung-ho about lynching. My point is that if they haven't stopped us in most previous games, I find it somewhat difficult to see why they should stop us now. [unless, of course, the suggestion is we wait a day or two and then lynch. But once again, I am a supporter of 3. I think this is a decision that must emerge from discussion rather than both pre-empting and precluding it.]

 

I understand that, but I seriously doubt that you'd end up drawing out any eliminators by voting for Clanky, with only your vote.  Especially considering that Clanky had made only one post prior to that, meaning that there's very little information there that could lead people to make posts to attack/defend Clanky at that point.  While you claim to have an intent to kill Clanky, it seems odd to pick an inactive player out of the blue like that, and expect that players will try to lynch him.  Unless, of course, you didn't expect anyone to lynch Clanky, and only voted for him to attempt to distance yourself from a fellow Diagramist.  (I know it might seem as if I'm being nitpicky here, but these are all things to keep in mind for later in the game, when the pieces of the puzzle start fitting together.)

 

Nevertheless, seeing as the lynch train has careened towards Paranoid King and Leiftinspace, I don't think my vote on Phattemer is currently of much use.  Not sure who exactly to vote for yet; I'll figure that out tomorrow.

[Mailliw73]

I've thought about it and realized that it doesn't quite make too much sense for the PMd players to take out Bort so early on. Paranoid King. You guys have brought up enough points about that and I can't see a good reason for it yet. Especially if PK hasn't been on at all, I doubt it's him. My gut currently points at Leif, Araris, and Phatt. But that's not enough for me to vote for one of them.

[Araris Valerian]

Well, I'll be darned. We still have 24 hours to discuss things. My head clock is all goofed up right now, sorry folks. My last post was geared towards finding a lynch right away, and since we have a whole day left, the focus on a couple people seems to have halted discussion a bit (not that there was much already). The current vote tally is 4 for both PK and Leift (well, until I made this post, now PK has only 3). My vote retraction means that Leift is currently up for the lynch, but I'm not sure where I actually want my vote to be. Again, to clarify, I made my last post thinking that the end of the cycle was eminent.

[Lightsworn Panda]

Sorry, unepectedly busy lately. Will be able to post Night Cycle.