Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Ashbringer]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

-Symph is on some form of inactivity warning. @Ashbringer - When will Symph be replaced, if she falls afoul of the filter? Depending on Ash's answer, I'm fine with leaving Symph to be replaced or filter-killed, rather than going there right now.

I'm gonna check with Devotary, but at least by D3. Maybe by N2 (this rollover), as they've been online on the Shard, but not entirely sure how that works. Also depends on Archer's availability.

 

Vote Count

• _Stick_ (2): Conquestor, The Wandering Wizard
• JNV (1): Matrim's Dice
• Shining Silhouette (1): _Stick_
• Turtle (1): Illwei
• Shqueeves (1): Kasimir

[JNV]

Hi Im writing this quickly on mobile cause Im out on a school thing for the rest of today and wont be able to get on sorry so Im just quickly going to respond to questions to me and I cant figure out how to get lots of quotes on mobile so just line by line

Illwei I dont think it makes you evil itd be a weird evil move its just weird and youre actually feeling smooth this game

Kasimir I didnt vote in that post cause I fell asleep at my keyboard and woke up at like 1 and decided Id just post what I have and I didnt really touch on the votes cause Matrims was just spice on a question and yours had nothing to argue against its a reasonable vote 

Conquestor you dint have to change your style for me I need to just get used to it

So on to what I came on for the vote I consider Silhouette a no go for mostly the same reasons as everyone else plus Im trying to separate weird behavior and evil behavior and I dont think theyd be talking about how theyd look bad as evil Shaueeves doesnt really seem like anything like I dont really have a feeling one way or another I woildnt be incredibly shocked if theyre evil but not from what theyve done so far Turtle well I feel like Turtles a bit more present then usual but I dont want to punish a player for a positive shift and besides it doesnt feel evil per se just different now Stick of all the people Sticks been the wobbliest and its kind of the Silhouette vote thats sealing it for me like not even bothering to consider the logistics of evil Silhouette just throwing the vote down and the only thing making me hesitate is the lack of self pres but tentatively Stick and now I have to go bye bye see you next turn

[---]

Conq, Mat, Kas, Stick

If I were to put these into tiers it would be something like

Stick, Conq
Mat
Kas

These are my village reads right now. If I'm to add another tier it would probably be

Jnv, TUN.

My thoughts on stick are pretty much of her last post and the wording (as well as the whole trying to vote at night, which i find mildly clearing in this case- it shows that stick was actively trying to find the elims and was excited when she thought she saw something), even though targeting someone who talks about the village as a separate entity and the other things Shining did last night is a pretty easy thing to latch on to when lost. That as well as the potential slip about knowing xino's alignment last cycle...

With the absence of Shqueeves and others talking more though, it's something I agree with-

EDIT: Yes, my village reads are basically the people who are talking. I have some reservations about kas but there's a recent post....I suppose I'm conflicted on. But I'm not going to talk about it because it could quickly spiral.

I also think Wizard has some Elim equity.

Turtle, Shqueeves
Wizard
Shining

Edited September 22, 2022 by Illwei

[Mat]

I prefer JNV to Shining I think, if only because of Shining staying on xino last cycle, but idk if I prefer Stick to JNV. I have work and I’ll miss rollover by two hours so we’ll see where my vote ends up I guess :P. I did like JNV’s last post and there’s potential for Stick’s flip reflecting on Conq so I might move in about an hour.

Edit: But if people moved to Shqueeves I wouldn’t be opposed to that.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I prefer JNV to Shining I think, if only because of Shining staying on xino last cycle, but idk if I prefer Stick to JNV. I have work and I’ll miss rollover by two hours so we’ll see where my vote ends up I guess :P. I did like JNV’s last post and there’s potential for Stick’s flip reflecting on Conq so I might move in about an hour.

Edit: But if people moved to Shqueeves I wouldn’t be opposed to that.

I feel confident in stick flipping vil

[Shining Silhouette]

Okay, time to do some actual thinking this game . I guess I'll just start by looking at each player's posts and giving general thoughts. Usually that helps me make sense of a game. In previous games though, I forced myself into putting people into elim lean categories even if I saw them as neutral cause I didn't have too many suspicions, so this time if that happens to me I'll just make more tiers of vil lean haha and see where my thoughts take me.

Mat - Wow. He's posted a lot this game (Yes I opened each individual post from this game in a different tab :P.) Feels solid, doesn't really seems to be pushing anything. He's done a good job, has great to the village. His vote at the end of D1 doesn't feel like E!Mat to me (after elimming with him last game), though I could see it maybeee being an elim strategy. Probably not though :P.  Vil lean

TUN - Five posts. First post seemed a little sketchy at first, but honestly doesn't give me bad vibes overall. Seems a little disconnected (didn't realize he had been voted on) and I feel like that's villagery to me. Slight vil lean

Wizard - Feels really similar to previous games. Not too much to be said here, could go either way. Neutral

Stick - 

First off, in regard to their post:

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Honestly my vote on Shining has little to do with their D1 in isolation and more to do with their N1 explanation of their D1 thought-process. I’m aware that I’m hyperfixating on this post and the one preceding it because it feels straight out of an elim mindset and too self-aware.

I would like to highlight these parts in particular: 

Speaking of the village as a separate entity, the conscious caution being taken against scrutiny, etc. 
I don’t think I’ve played with Shining before so I can’t tell if this is alignment indicative behaviour from them but it sets of alarms for me. 

To be fair, it is kind of straight out of an elim mindset as that was my role last game

I don't really see a problem with calling it the village, to be honest. In my head I just think of it as the general majority of players. Though I might be a bit of an over-rationalizer for my actions, now that you mention it. If that sets off alarms for you, it's no issue of mine, but I'd like to point out that you did make the hyper-aware point about Araris earlier and they flipped green. 

On 9/19/2022 at 9:28 AM, _Stick_ said:

I don’t like this post. The part where you needed to explain why you’re talking it out seems off to me, like, explaining things has always been part of the game, no?  Seems a tad hyper-aware. It’s also very r00d that despite all this talk of giving reasoning you have none for your vote there xD (I know, I know, D1 and whatnot but it’s funny regardless.) Araris

In general, I find myself liking your posts even if they are mostly directed at me. In fact, the point about Araris shows consistency throughout the game and so I'm slight vil reading you now. 

Shqueeves - He exists? Lol I haven't really paid attention to any of his posts, didn't even register that he was playing. 

This post doesn't sit right with me though:

On 9/19/2022 at 1:07 PM, Shqueeves said:

Conquestor's vote on TUN doesn't sit right with me. Not only did he accuse someone of making a tie by making another tie, but he also accused Mat in the RP and TUN in parenthesis, both colored red. I'm open to retracting the vote if someone more suspicious comes along

Gives two reasons for voting Conq, but then appears to waver. Yes I know this might be hindsight confbias as I just saw Mat's post but it is my genuine thought on the post. Slight Elim lean. 

Conq - Read through all posts, seems genuine (yes another ). I like how throughout this game he's caught onto a lot of the things the village has pointed out. Seems truly interested in how the game is progressing and as if he really wants to catch the elims. Vil Lean

Symph - Inactive? Neutral

Kas - Wow. Once more. Lots of contributions. Right now my head is saying "Kas is the good guy" cause of the conf vil role last game but I'm trying to get it to shut up. I'm not really sure what to think right now- he has a lot of good points and has been helpful to village and eager to consider all sides of issues, but I don't have time right now to read through everything, so I'll procrastinate and put him in neutral for now. 

Turtle - AHHH I said I wasn't going to put everybody in neutral but what the heck there have to be like at least another two elims, right? Ummmmm slight slight slight vil lean

JNV - I feel like out of principle I need to have more elim reads. And they are slight elim to me, so yeah. Not going to vote here, but just throwing that out there 

Illwei - Seems like a mastermind. I'm kinda running out of free time here, so I didn't get a chance to really analyze her posts, but the fact that she seems so confident that she should be basically conf village is a point to her, I say. E!Illwei would not be that dramatic (?) Vil lean

Also you're so confident about Stick that you posted it twice. You gotta admire it xD

 

So that puts us at 

 

V lean - Illwei, Mat, Conq

Slight V - TUN, Stick,

Slight slight V - Turtle 

Neutral - Wiz, Symph, Kas

Slight E lean - JNV

E lean - Shqueeves

 

Wow. Didn't expect it'd be this bad. I guess I'm voting Shqueeves

[Conquestor]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

• _Stick_ (2): Conquestor, The Wandering Wizard
• JNV (1): Matrim's Dice
• Shining Silhouette (1): _Stick_
• Turtle (1): Illwei
• Shqueeves (1): Kasimir

I'm not sure that I like the fact that the votes seem to have stabilized, especially D2. If Stick is elim then either she is cutting herself off from her team to avoid further hurting the team, or she doesn't have a teammate. I mean, the teammate would try to save her somehow, right? She is sitting at 3 (JNV+) and Shqueeves (Shining+) is next at 2 votes. JNV's vote on Stick sits wrong in my stomach as well... grumble. Stick didn't even vote on one of the many trains going on...

Either the elims are happy with the way the current votes have gone down or they are too afraid to make any overt moves... @The Wandering Wizard What do you think? 

@Illwei You seem to be in a rather explainy mood this cycle. I'm not saying I dislike it, it just seems, weird. Why all the sudden explanations?

2 hours ago, JNV said:

Conquestor you dint have to change your style for me I need to just get used to it

You're not the first to mention it. I think I'm enjoying D2 more than I did N1 though, so I'm gonna keep going like this for now.

 

P.S. I also don't know how I feel about everyone targeting the inactives. It makes it easy to explain the seeming lack of thread control, but there is no way that the whole team is inactive, right? 

[Mat]

I’ll trust Illwei since I really have no idea about Stick and I’d rather my vote do something, if no one’s voting JNV, so I’ll go onto Shqueeves

Last post this turn, gl everyone :P.

[Turtle]

Ugh all my stuff got deleted cos mobile so I’m just gonna say what I tried to say earlier but without the quotes:

-I don’t think there’s any real way all of the elim team is inactive, but I think at least one of them needs to be inactive or their must have been some communication issues in their doc

-so kas quoted a post shqueeves made and said it gave weird vibes or something along those lines but he didn’t know why, and to me the post felt a bit like an elim trying to aggressively put themselves in a town mindset if that makes any sense

sorry for how brief this was I spent a good amount of time typing something up and it got deleted and I’m a touch salty lol

[The Wandering Wizard]

21 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Either the elims are happy with the way the current votes have gone down or they are too afraid to make any overt moves... @The Wandering Wizard What do you think? 

I was tired earlier, less tired now and have more energy to think some things through

There's the third option of them all being inactive and they haven't seen the recent vote count.

Current VC

Stick (3): Conq, Wiz, JNV

Silhouette (2): Stick, Illwei

Shqueeves (3): Kas, Silhouette, Mat

So there are two ways I see this

Option 1: The elims are happy with the way the votes are.

Meaning that none of the elims are being voted on, the elims that are being voted on don't have many votes, or they are confident in masking their vote manip. This puts (Mat, TUN, Me, Conq, Symph, Kas, Turtle, JNV, and Illwei) in that group, maybe Shining. If I clear those I read village (Mat, TUN, Me, Conq, Symph, Kas, Turtle, JNV, and Illwei) 

Option 2: Too afraid to make any overt moves

This seems to fit better for the elim team in my mind, as D1 has shown that they probably have little thread control or are new elims.  So this would put (Turtle, Symph, and Shqueeves) in this group, though not certain about Turtle as they are more active now. 

Stick, I feel a lot less confident on her being elim, so I guess I'll jump on Shqueeves for now.

[Ashbringer]

5 minutes!

[---]

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

You seem to be in a rather explainy mood this cycle. I'm not saying I dislike it, it just seems, weird. Why all the sudden explanations?

Are you wanting to push on me for it? I've switched to something that is purely pro-village for me to be doing so i don't see why question it

Why am I doing it? My activity varies game by game and day by day. Something happened (nothing specific, just threadstate) that gives me more motivation. Or whatnot. I play differently when I feel like it. 

EDIT: Wow that's a flash wagon that happened 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Illwei

[The Unknown Ajah]

I exist. 

TUN

Edit: Illwei just described what I play like perfectly. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Ashbringer]

Time! Rollover soon.

[Ashbringer]

LG89 Night 2: Unfounded

A few kandra could have encountered ArVaal in the night. One of them was WalDo. They'd been a bit too hard to find, maybe a bit too aware. WalDo insisted they were a member of the Second Generation, had the knowledge of the First in order to prove it. The council imprisoned them all the same.

 

Shqueeves was imprisoned! They were a member of the Second Generation with a Blessing of Awareness!

 

Vote Count:

• Shqueeves (4): Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• _Stick_ (2): Conquestor, JNV
• Shining Silhouette (2): _Stick_, Illwei
• The Unknown Novel (1): The Unknown Novel

 

@SymphonianBookworm is being warned for inactivity. Please make a post this turn or you will be replaced by a pinch hitter. (Speaking of which, if any onlookers would like to become pinch hitters, let me know!)

 

The turn will end at 8:00 PM PDT (or 10:00 PM CDT) on Friday, September 23rd.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice - MaTriim
2. @The Unknown Novel - NoVeel
3. @The Wandering Wizard - WiiZaad
4. @_Stick_ - Stiiik
5. Shqueeves - WalDo - Second Generation, Blessing of Awareness
6. Araris Valerian - ArVaal - Second Generation, Blessing of Presence
7. xinoehp512 - NottIt - Third Generation, Blessing of Potency
8. @Conquestor - ConQuis
9. @Shining Silhouette - Taazzel
10. @SymphonianBookworm - Zanaria
11. @Kasimir - KeSaam
12. @Turtle - TurTaal
13. @JNV - JenVee
14. @Illwei - IllWei

 

[---]

I feel confident about stick being village, just as I feel confident about an elim being on the shqueeves train

[Conquestor]

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I feel confident about stick being village, just as I feel confident about an elim being on the shqueeves train

Who do think is Elim on the Shqueeves train? I don't think it would be Wizard or Kas. I could see it being Mat or Shining though. 

[Mat]

Well that’s annoying but whatever I guess

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Who do think is Elim on the Shqueeves train? I don't think it would be Wizard or Kas. I could see it being Mat or Shining though. 

This opinion is kinda eh from your POV since I’m on the list but I’d switch myself out with Kas there if I need to have two. Kas felt like v Kas this turn but Wiz was voted on by xino in a way that makes me think they’re unpaired. Shining… I still don’t know why e!them stays on xino though.

Does there have to be an elim on the train :P. I’ll look at wagonomics tomorrow ig 

[Kasimir]

52 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Shining… I still don’t know why e!them stays on xino though.

This is still my main issue with E!Silho, and I'd like to know how @Illwei or @_Stick_ account for Silho staying put in E!Silho world. I feel like the vote analysis and the post analysis currently just talk past each other. Like...I agree that given E!Coinshot has one extra free kill, willingly surrendering that when the goal is just to survive one Turn is just weird decision-making, and Silho was in a position to affect that. I guess it's not impossible that Silho thought that swapping a vote was too risky, and that a tie was fine/Xino could self-pres, but IDK. Risk appetite question?

I suppose the counter to that is that if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train (why? - if V!Stick, V!Shqueeves, either train is fine for the Elims - there's only an issue if you hypothesise E!Silho and the train swing was to pad away from Silho.) - leaving that parenthetical aside, if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train, then I'm more or less committed to Silho. But I'm not really sure I am committed to that view yet. Akan datang. Vote analysis later.

@Illwei - You mentioned you think Wiz might be E. Why? I'm of the view that Xino trying to put a distancing vote on E!Wiz that early is odd - I guess one could say it's early and Xino always planned to withdraw, but it is a fairly blase way of calling attention to a teammate.

My other thing about Wiz is that as far as I can tell, the vote situation would've been a tie, causing no one to die, before Wiz intervened to vote Shqueeves. In an E!Stick world, this is obviously bad. (I guess? Or is the theory that the Elims are so far down they have to force a ML? But basically almost anyone could've done it anyway.) In a V!Stick world, this is...unnecessary for E!Wiz. It's possible there's some level of meta-play there, but Stick intuitively feels like the better ML for the Elims - Shqueeves has historically never been very active in any game not QF30 (Devo can feel free to correct me there as I believe they have playhistory.) 

Skimmed the thread but I'll do the vote analysis for last Turn later if I'm not dead knackered after class tonight. If not, I'll do it after class tomorrow .__.

Impression is of the last minute swing - but if V!Stick, then that just seems odd. Elims have no particular reason to gaf about the Stick-Shqueeves brawl, so how does it get swingy? If E!Stick, swinginess is obvious. No assessment until I get the time to look through the vote progression. Intuitive theory has to do with nascent JNV/Silho trains in a V/V ShTick world.

[Stick.]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is still my main issue with E!Silho, and I'd like to know how @Illwei or @_Stick_ account for Silho staying put in E!Silho world. I feel like the vote analysis and the post analysis currently just talk past each other. Like...I agree that given E!Coinshot has one extra free kill, willingly surrendering that when the goal is just to survive one Turn is just weird decision-making, and Silho was in a position to affect that. I guess it's not impossible that Silho thought that swapping a vote was too risky, and that a tie was fine/Xino could self-pres, but IDK. Risk appetite question?

Yeah like I said, I'm not familiar with Shining's playstyle so I can't really make confident assumptions about their risk appetite but from what they've said I'd be willing to bet they're one of the more cautious players. @Anyone who's played with them before - please weigh in on this.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I suppose the counter to that is that if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train (why? - if V!Stick, V!Shqueeves, either train is fine for the Elims - there's only an issue if you hypothesise E!Silho and the train swing was to pad away from Silho.) - leaving that parenthetical aside, if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train, then I'm more or less committed to Silho. But I'm not really sure I am committed to that view yet. Akan datang. Vote analysis later

Tbh I don't know if there absolutely has to be an elim on the Squeeves train (although this comes with the knowledge of my own alignment). But if we assume e!Shining for a second, their vote on Squeeves brought it up to 3-2-2 between myself, Shining, and Squeeves. But it's important to note that their vote came after Mat explicitly said he'd be okay with moving his vote to Squeeves if other people moved there. And sure enough he did, after an hour, bringing it up to 3-3 between myself and Squeeves. At this point, it's in the interests of both alignments to break the tie because just like the elims want one less player to deal with, the village wants a flip to work with. After Mat's vote was cast, both exe candidates were v so it was safe play for elims so they could sit back with their popcorn if they wanted. Wiz broke the tie, and I think I maintain my mild v-read of them for now.

Also - TUN. Why are people village reading them, again? I don't know how I feel about that self-vote because it exudes nonchalance and given the state of the votes at that point I would think the elims were pretty unconcerned about the exe.

[The Wandering Wizard]

That was unexpected. I'll do a deeper analysis later when I have time to sit down and gather my thoughts, ie not in school. 

[Shining Silhouette]

24 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

That was unexpected. I'll do a deeper analysis later when I have time to sit down and gather my thoughts, ie not in school. 

^^

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Also - TUN. Why are people village reading them, again? I don't know how I feel about that self-vote because it exudes nonchalance and given the state of the votes at that point I would think the elims were pretty unconcerned about the exe.

Will have to think more about this- you raise an interesting point.

[Mat]

I took TUN out of my PoE because he was one of two people xino suspected but I’m not sure how much stock we should put in that. I feel like killing a lower active isn’t our best course of action for tomorrow (even if we did already get a hit that way :P) but I guess that depends on how you define lower active. There’s only so much you can do with almost no info.

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah like I said, I'm not familiar with Shining's playstyle so I can't really make confident assumptions about their risk appetite but from what they've said I'd be willing to bet they're one of the more cautious players. @Anyone who's played with them before - please weigh in on this.

I don't know I'd agree with that profile, but @Matrim's Dice worked with Shining in both Shining's games, so I think he'd be a useful barometer. My observation from playing against E!Shining as a Villager is that Shining thought a good play in a cycle (C4, for anyone who wants to refer to QF62) where the Village was going to lynch E!Mat was to commit hard and come in late and support Mat staunchly - Refuge in Audacity, if you will. He gambled that if he supported Mat extremely strongly, we wouldn't read him as Evil for it. My view is that the conservative play is to distance and to bandwagon. 

I'll also note that Shining basically tried to play the derpclear / new(er) player bluff, though not in the traditional way, so that's very much within his repertoire. To me, that indicates flexibility. He definitely had me indecisive on the basis of his tone. (Not necessarily relevant here, but I'm bringing the profile up since we're on the topic - I'd say flexible player with a decent amount of risk-positivity, but I cannot definitively rule out conservative play in this instance. I presume your theory then is that you more or less picked up his actual considerations vis-a-vis what kept him off defending Xino.)

He also explicitly paid attention to how players were trying to clear other players as Village and to use those reasons - so it was an explicitly targeted sort of blending in. I'll probably go back and look to see if that shows up in any posts, but that's a later problem.

Now, could the game have had an effect? I'd expect so - people usually learn from experience. It's possible that Shining decided that it didn't work and went back to being conservative, since he got lynched the cycle after Mat. 

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Tbh I don't know if there absolutely has to be an elim on the Squeeves train (although this comes with the knowledge of my own alignment). But if we assume e!Shining for a second, their vote on Squeeves brought it up to 3-2-2 between myself, Shining, and Squeeves. But it's important to note that their vote came after Mat explicitly said he'd be okay with moving his vote to Squeeves if other people moved there. And sure enough he did, after an hour, bringing it up to 3-3 between myself and Squeeves. At this point, it's in the interests of both alignments to break the tie because just like the elims want one less player to deal with, the village wants a flip to work with. After Mat's vote was cast, both exe candidates were v so it was safe play for elims so they could sit back with their popcorn if they wanted. Wiz broke the tie, and I think I maintain my mild v-read of them for now.

1. Agree in that I don't see a break as being explicitly V/E-indicative, but believe the Es have more incentive to sit back, as tie-breaking could draw unnecessary condemnation - late vote movements tend to draw attention. Relying on the fact that Vs would likely break the tie no matter what, and if it is a V/V tie, then you have no investment in how it is broken, only that it is broken. I note that Wiz has a tendency to E!read late vote movements (cf. Elan's recent MR) so I do not know if E!Wiz would try to use it on a meta level.  Don't think we substantively disagree on assessment of the situation post-Mat (in a V-V world) and on Wiz.

2. As I said, my issue with Shining right now is I feel the votes and the post reads point in different directions. I accept I prioritise votes more, as I presume you and Illwei prioritise the posts more, but it bothers me that they don't talk to each other at all, because they come from the same player and alignment! I will concede it is probably easier to reconcile the votes than the posts, but even so. But I would agree that in an E!Shining world, that vote shift would explain things, but also:

Two things on my akan datang list due to time (I just got back from night classes, it is 12:30AM, I have class tomorrow, w00ts.) I list them because someone else can do them as well and I'd probably encourage it but will still do it myself:

- Evolution of lynchlist across D2

- Vote progression analysis

I recall noting at some point about how much people are agreeing on the <JNV, Shining, Shqueeves> shortlist in the cycle. It was late, and a brief impression, so I didn't have the bandwidth to chase it down, but it's something I want to look at. I'm not sure how often strong agreement occurs and I think it could be noteworthy (though how to interpret?) if suspicions have coalesced so narrowly.

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Also - TUN. Why are people village reading them, again? I don't know how I feel about that self-vote because it exudes nonchalance and given the state of the votes at that point I would think the elims were pretty unconcerned about the exe.

It's also very blatant and showy, though. Does E!TUN do that? I presume that at some point, an Elim will actively exploit the dgaf = Village line of reasoning, but I can't help but think an Elim team with one member down doesn't play around as much. Easier to simply not vote at all.

Also - for TUN, it's a weak Village read, on the basis of him unvoting when tied with Wiz:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

This is the situation. And TUN simply unvotes and doesn't put his vote elsewhere. Sure, it's insanely early in the cycle, but it doesn't really cost him to leave his vote there. The counterpoint could be: it's early, and also that at that point, TUN felt certain his teammates would protect him. This is fair depending on your theorised team and if you believe Wiz and Mat are Village, (also Stick I guess) since that's two potential trains capable of taking off. But it still seems a counterintuitive move for E!TUN to make, I suppose, so that nudges me a bit towards V.

I did entertain E!TUN insofar as:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

This ties Wiz, Mat, and TUN. So he kind of has a bit of a slight sus of TUN:

On 9/19/2022 at 4:27 AM, xinoehp512 said:

Standard reminder ties are of the eliminators yadda yadda yadda I'm sure this is nothing new. Maybe slight sus towards TUN for his attitude towards ties but it was the second post in the cycle he didn't exactly have much of a choice. :P.

Half takes it back, and then votes on another train other than TUN, further diluting the votes and making the tie even more stable. Slight ??? of TUN here from Xino's attitude - I don't consider it as damning as vote dilution but I think it's definitely a bit more friendly to TUN than I'd expect off his comments. TUN for now I guess I can change it or roll a die for it later on.

Yes I know sorry I quote myself because it is late and I am CBA tired and past!me probably was thinking better than I am now, just let me do it. Basically that flag of TUN and half-taking it back is kinda weird, especially since Xino...has voted alongside TUN in the same post. But I don't really know how to read it, other than that it could be perfunctory softballing to distance from a teammate. But I don't really feel it since he didn't vote there. IDK. Your thoughts?

15 hours ago, Conquestor said:

P.S. I also don't know how I feel about everyone targeting the inactives. It makes it easy to explain the seeming lack of thread control, but there is no way that the whole team is inactive, right? 

I think my main worry is that it's like LG73. (Like, how do you want to think about the Elim team? If you want to think Ash will nudge team compositions to make sure at least one active is on, then I'm in a quandary because one reason I was not sure about Stick was simple PoE - I had strong V reads in you and Mat, somewhat less but still there in Illwei, Araris flipped Village, I sure as hell know I'm Village so who the hell is left in that profile? But ok - suppose Stick is Village. Then I'm more or less committed to what consensus already is, that the team is hiding in low or semi actives. Though I suppose it's less of a problem for you because you suspect Mat  ) We've had games before when the Elims had low vote control, a low activity profile and Devo just ruthlessly bussed every single one of her teammates. We probably only found TUN via map hoarding or something like that. It felt like that game was just hunting for needles in a haystack and I don't recall how we did it, but we did have to ruthlessly vote despite low information.

Not saying we have to do it here. I could be badly wrong about the profile of the Elim team. I think my thought just is that if that's where reasoning and arguing with people and adjusting your evidence takes you, then sometimes it do be that way.

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't know I'd agree with that profile, but @Matrim's Dice worked with Shining in both Shining's games, so I think he'd be a useful barometer.

I agree with Kas more on that one, for the reasons he said, and I don't really have much more to add. I think it's within Shining's playstyle to have voted a teammate but I guess I'm still just stuck on why they stayed-- it's a gambit and a gamble, but with a low active xino and him being a Coinshot on D1 there isn't much incentive for that to happen.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Matrim's Dice