Sart
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Everything posted by Sart
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Also note that Elenion will put his Duke vote on Kipper, and if SD is the last Noble, his vote will also go on Kipper. Kipper, I understand my analysis may have been too biased, but you still haven't addressed my primary concern. What is your role? I've been suspecting for a while that the Eliminators have some sort of PM spying. It would make sense of one strange rule: PMs only during the day. I can see a night action that allows you to read a target player's PMs during the day. It would be a balanced mechanic that Joe's been working on for a while now. Therefore, I think it is in the thread's best interest to publicly role claim. If we can get the Eliminators to claim powers they don't have, we can expose the contradictions. While I suspect some Jeskeri have duplicates of village powers, I highly doubt the Practitioner does. We need to get all the information out in the open.
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Alright, someone's lying about a PM. I'm going to do an analysis of Kipper. First post, supposedly without looking at his role, is a condemnation of Elenion. Also says he lies as villager, which might explain what is happening now. His post hadn't been approved, so two votes on Elenion were uploaded while he waited. Accuses Elenion of using Gambler's Fallacy. Agrees with Wilson that Emerald is suspicious. Jokes with a terrible bad pun to STINK. Boooooo... Explains that STINK's actions are abnormal, even for him. Also, says he has become "more of a lurker, and more aggressive" Doesn't want to summarize the thread. Fair enough. Encourages bandwagon on Elenion Doesn't like strange question marks from Rae. In retaliation, reveals that Rae is supposedly a Neutral Beggar Kipper likes hashtags. More banter with STINK Suspects Magestar for using inferences Strongly advocates for off-topic discussion Argues that slip-ups are important clues Doesn't understand why Straw was lynched Votes for Mailliw, claims he is a master manipulator Understands why he was listed as Eliminator Argues against killing Stink Asks who was contacted by the Dula Does not want to be scanned, claims Mailliw's list is completely false Really goes after Wilson in this post: Wants a web of trust, relevant due to the Practitioner Claims he hardly asked for information Argues that outing the Dula is a good thing Defensive after being accused of bandwagons by Elenion Argues he wasn't bandwagoning, he was the first vote on Elenion. Oh boy, another long post: Would not say an info dump is wrong if a teammate is on the list, said it was wrong because it was factually wrong. Argues against Aman suspecting him as well Well, there's three things that strike me about his posts thus far. One, he keeps bragging about his powers as an eliminator. That's never a good sign. Two, he really attacked Elenion. If he's a Jeskeri, it's highly doubtful Elenion is. His post attacking Wilson's Dula (later to be revealed as Elb) really strikes out at me. He's arguing for a web of players, that theoretically would be targeting each other. That's a prime target for the Practitioner. He's really on my radar now, especially since we never got a role from him.
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Since Rae is now claiming to have healed Aman, we can edit the role to chart to include that claim. However, that still leaves four people without role claims. I suspect that not all of them are eliminators, but I would bet that one of them is. I would like to hear from Kipper first. He hasn't posted since Monday, which could imply that he is the Philosopher.
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Arrrrr, why is that not on the chart Elenion made?
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Since you just revealed Orlok's role, the Practitioner and (Evil) Duke should theoretically be running out of room. So, I might as well role claim. Introducing, Sarrrrr, the not-so-Retired Pirate.
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So, cycle one, who did Orlok arrest?
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Aman, Lopen, you're better than this. Lopen, attacking Aman won't prove your innocence. He's the most likely player to be protected, so your attack will not be put in the write-up. However, since we're low on protection, attacking anyone else will probably go through. Why don't you attack a player you think is suspicious, who is not Aman? Since lynching a Jeskeri is going to be difficult, we need to get lucky with our kills. If you still suspect him after tomorrow, I'm fine with you killing him, but there are better targets right now, especially if you value your own skin. Aman, scanning Lopen doesn't do you any good. I see four possibilities: You see Lopen as good, and Lopen is good. Lopen still won't believe you're a scanner, and will actively try to kill you. He will not participate in your trust group. You will not have any leads to the Jeskeri. You see Lopen as good, but Lopen is neutral evil. Then your scan would be useless. We would invite a wolf in sheep's clothing, giving him protection from the Jeskeri, and allowing him to keep killing. You see Lopen as evil, and Lopen is a Jeskeri. His allies will say that you either lied about your scan, or that there is a framing ability. Or, they could disown him, and we would run out of leads. You see Lopen as evil, and Lopen isn't. Then we have a framer, and you get lynched. None of these outcomes are particularly good in my mind. While Lopen is still a candidate for Jeskeri, if he kills someone, he's much more likely to not be one. Yes, he could be a Beggar, but I doubt that, since the number of Beggar claims would be through the roof. Target one of the three people whose role you don't know. The Jeskeri won't know who you're targeting, so they'll be at a disadvantage. Come on guys. I truly believe you're both village. If you're not, then kudos to you. But as of right now, this in-fighting has to stop. We can't afford any more mistakes, and we're doing the Jeskeri's job for them.
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The bold change is mine. So, with that claim out of the way, there are six people who haven't claimed roles. I know I'm innocent, so that narrows it down to five players. In addition, we know through the thread that several roles have been claimed to Aman. Namely, there is a second Legionnaire, as well as a third Chay Shan claim. So, that narrows the list down to three players for Aman to scan. In addition, there is a second Duke running around. While they could be Jeskeri, I doubt they are the Practitioner. It seems likely that the second Duke, if they are village, would be either Eol or Bard, since they both voted for Ren. If one of them has already claimed to Aman, which I suspect has happened, then the other one is most likely a Duke. That doesn't tell us about their alignment, but it narrows Aman's scanning targets. As long as the practicioner hasn't fake claimed (difficult to prove, especially if a teammate has covered for them, "proving" their role), then Aman should only have three targets to scan. I don't know who those targets are, but Aman does. He could scan me, but I'm innocent, so I wouldn't recommend it. That leaves two juicy targets for him. I recommend scanning one of those two.
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The Young Bard: Poke votes Eolhondras Hadn't gotten any PMs at beginning of day one. Banters with Eol, changes his vote to Silverblade Slightly bigger posts on the lynch targets, I'll break it up again. Does not like Elenion's suicide plan Is neutral on Emerald Trusts Stink a tad bit All his suspicions are extremely minor. Useful for an eliminator to hide with. Asks Mailliw to explain why his last post was "off" Mailliw's not sure. Another longish post: Retracts his vote on SilverBlade. He requests a scan on Elenion, to be revealed in thread if possible. Votes on Straw to solidify the lynch. Odd, considering he suspects Elenion. Wants to do an OOG PM with STINK. Clearly crazy. Has a parrot that can say PAFO. More banter. Fine with letting Mailliw see his death scene. Laughs that Mailliw will see his vote as suspicious. Farewells from all. Votes for Elenion, since Elen had claimed Pirate in a PM. Oh crap, he made a player list. This won't take forever to analyze... Paranoid about Alvron Believes Aman is innocent. Mentions that Lopen distrusts Aonar Suspects Rae is lying about being neutral Wants Burnt dead for quick links. Mostly joking. Not paranoid about Conq, even though he and Alv have the same roles Suspects Elb due to PM activity Abandons Elenion train after Aman's post Thinks Emerald's case is overstated Doesn't have a read on Eol. Suspects Kipper a lot. Lopen is his second-best village read No opinion on Orlok or Silverblade Frustrated by Ren Suspects Silverblade due to Rae, and posts his vote on her. Has no idea about Wilson Denies that there is a Jeskeri faction, saying we don't know what faction is out there. Wants a PM if he missed something. Angry that people aren't voting, and apologizes for not voting. Because he trusts Aman, he votes for Ren. You may be asking yourselves, "Why did Sart post an analysis of Bard?" I just chose a player who didn't have a role claim. Bard was at the bottom of the list, and I hadn't considered his alignment. Reading through his posts, I'm guessing he's the other Chay-Shan practitioner. I could be totally wrong, but that's my read on him. Obviously, I was hoping to find a Jeskeri, but this is still an interesting result. I doubt that the Practitioner has another role besides Practitioner. Therefore, I think it's a good idea to concentrate on finding that role first, by checking in with the people who haven't claimed anything yet. If I have time, I'm going to do an analysis on Aonar.
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And then there were 16. My analysis of Ren did pull up some suspicious things, but there was nothing in there that convinced me to vote for him. This whole lynch shows the danger of lynching someone for what they said during the current cycle. A full analysis of the player is needed, especially if they make an honest mistake. On that note, I'm not sure what to make of Aman's claim of Dula. It's certainly possible that we had two Dulas, but I find it odd that they both went to two of our most vocal players. I haven't suspected Aman this game, so I'm willing to entertain the possibility of him being a scanner. I need to do an analysis of his posts, but that can wait til tomorrow. On the subject of voting for a scan. Don't. We're at a numerical disadvantage right now. It would be extremely easy for the Jeskeri to lead the vote away from their target. It's better to keep it hidden, so that they don't have a chance to prepare. On that note, I would also recommend that Lopen kill STINK. It's better to get him out of the way now, rather than have him muck up the votes yet again. There's also still the possibility that he is Jeskeri, so we want him dead asap.
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I already did.
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I went and did an analysis on Renegade's Posts: Advocates PM safety. Wonders why we haven't lynched STINK yet? Votes on Ecth, who dies that night by Philosopher. Defends Elenion, and slightly defends Emerald. Goes to an amusement park. Wheeee! Goes back on his word and votes for Elenion. Explains that Elenion went too quiet after the insanity of Day 1. Points out that Elenion claimed both Pirate and Duke day 1 to Lopen. Lopen later clarifies that Elenion said he was "working with" a Duke. Changes his vote to Maill. Then he goes back to Elenion to make the game interesting. After Maill's "info" dump, he votes Maill again. He laughs at being called a conversion role. Ren has been looking at colleges. Don't worry Ren, college is a lot easier than high school. He also apologized for not posting as much. He was not a fan of the fake conversion plan. He does a big post. It's an analysis of the kill targets. I need to break this one down into sub-parts. He was worried about ending up dead. Seems like an odd concern. Doesn't understand why the philosopher targeted Ecth or Conquestor Distances himself from Alvron's death, claiming he wasn't privy to Alv being protected. He assumes Alvron was jailed. Believes there is a second Chay Shan due to Emerald's attack. He argues that having a group of well-protected trusted players is bad, especially if there is a conversion role. Advocates not clearing anyone who was targeted for a kill. Ironic, considering what happened last night. His last post night three seemed a little off. Other than that, he's been posting short posts that haven't been very telling of alignment. If he's a Jeskeri, I suspect that Emerald is on his team, and that Elenion is innocent. If he is evil, I would guess that he is the Philosopher, since he was the only one noticing Ecth.
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@The Only Joe If someone targeted Magestar, would they have been affected by the Practictioner?
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Lynching STINK isn't going to cost us a vote. Regardless of what we do, the Serial Killer is going to attack. Since we lost three protection roles last night, it seems likely we're going to lose another vote. They could hit a Jeskeri, but it's more likely that they're going to hit another villager. That's not good. Meanwhile, Stink will have less and less reason to actually vote with the village. I don't think he would vote as a block with them, but he might be contacted in a PM to change his vote to someone else. If he's neutral, then his vote should be treated as neutral or evil, not as a village vote. There's also the matter of if Stink is actually neutral in the first place. There's no evidence for it other than Stink's word, unless a Dula decided to scan him. The claim has allowed him to go under the radar as a possible Jeskeri or Serial Killer. I also find it interesting when Stink revealed. He revealed after a couple of votes were placed on him early in Day 1. While that could be for trolling purposes, I can see a more sinister reason. If Stink was evil, he would be more paranoid about the lynch. That could also explain the sudden reveal. It netted him a fair amount of suspicion, but his gamble has paid off. I need to go through his posts tomorrow to make sure I'm not being paranoid, but I believe this to be the best course of action.
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Emphasis mine. I need a clarification on that. Does this line mean that people targeting Magestar were also affected by Jeskeri Practictioner? If so, that would make a lot more sense than the theory of Aman being targeted by everyone. Not sure what that means about his alignment, but it would make a lot more sense in my mind. At this point, I think we need to lynch Stink. We started out with 28 players, so having 5 eliminators seems probable, especially if they only have a kill every third cycle. There's also the matter of the Serial Killer running about, who is either a 6th evil, or takes the place of one of the five. We're down to 17 players now. If there's 6 evil players, over a third of the town is against us. Even if there's only five, it's still close to a third. It's going to be ridiculously hard at this point to lynch a Jeskeri, since they're going to have at least 3 other players supporting them. We need as many town votes as possible, before the situation gets even worse. That's why I cannot allow Stink to live. He's supposedly a neutral role, which could easily swing the vote in the Jeskeri's favor. That would be a nightmare scenario. If he is actually town, then he is fishing for a kill, and is probably a Retired Pirate. It costs us an extra life, but it doesn't cost us a vote. If he's actually Jeskeri or the Serial Killer, we've managed to gain back an advantage. Whichever way I look at it, he's the safe choice. That's all from me for now. I don't have work for the next three days, so I should be more active now.
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I don't want to be lynched, but I haven't had the time to properly analyze this game. Work has been keeping me busy, and I have guests coming tonight. Tax-free weekend isn't going to help things either (Apparently it's like working black friday...) So, can someone please inform me why lynching Elenion isn't a good idea. We're having a third day slump, and I think his lynch would generate the most discussion.
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I'll sign up as Footsteps. He had been acting weird the last week, and everyone was concerned. Now that he had vanished, everyone back home was rooting for him to come back safely.
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Excuse me? We had the longest Day One thread in SE history, but there was no discussion? That's simply not true. While there was a large amount of banter, the fact is, we had a lot of discussion. Unfortunately, most of this discussion was centered around one person. Which brings me to this post. I should explain my actions yesterday. My one post in the thread was complete chull dung. The arguments against Elenion were flimsy at best, and didn't have much backing to them. I was honestly more suspicious of Emerald, mostly because he said he was still new at this game, while having "First SE Pinch Hitter" in his member title. Thus, I had no motive to kill Elenion. However, I recognized that most of the discussion was either for or against him. It reminded me of what happened in LG22. I was lynched for no good reason, but I was still an eliminator. So, I took a page out of Mailliw's handbook. I lied to the thread, in order to put more pressure on the eliminators. The reasons for voting for him were bull, but the amount of information we could gain was immense. I hoped that his teammates would form a bandwagon on someone else at the last minute. They did so onto Straw. I didn't say anything to the thread, as that would ruin the purpose of my gambit. Elenion's team would shy away from the bandwagon. I stayed silent. Now that day 1 is over, and Straw is confirmed to be innocent, it's time to find Elenion's alignment. If I'm right, and history is repeating itself, we will have a massive advantage over his team.
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Well, saw that one coming. I would prefer to lynch Elenion today. A lot of the discussion was focused on him yesterday, and it would greatly reduce our eliminator targets if he was evil. Of course, there might be another team out there, but it would still be a good place to start.
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Elenion, this isn't personal, but you have to stop referencing MR15 all the time. The eliminators lost that game due to poor game balance, not because of your role. I know that has been your only game so far, but you keep bringing it up, trying to maintain innocence. I know getting lynched day 1 sucks, but we need to start discussion somehow.
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I didn't realize this was Mailliw's last game. I'll sign up then. Haven't had any good ideas for RP in a while, so any suggestions would be nice.
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Sorry about not paying attention to this game. I was more focused on my new job and LG23. That's not a good excuse but it's the truth. I read through the rules to get an understanding of what's happening. That led me to an interesting conclusion. Straw has to be a villager. According to the rules, Acolytes are guaranteed good roles. Unless he's bluffing like crazy, Straw is confirmed to be an Acolyte. So, I'm in favor of recalling Aman. Next cycle, we put Straw in, to make sure that the Jeskeri don't get another vote. I skimmed through the thread, and although I'm not convinced Aman is Jeskeri, I would feel much better having someone verified in there instead. Does that make sense?
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Tram was tired. He had narrowly avoided getting Spiked last night, and now the other Houses wanted to kill him. He wanted to scream. Honestly, he probably could scream. He doubted that would damage his reputation at this point. He had killed the Inquisitor, and yet everyone was set on killing him. He saw the reason why of course. Sandyha (Elbereth), was claiming his role in the night's affairs. It was a foolish gesture. A simple examination of Tram's body would prove that he wasn't Spiked. With no one else to scapegoat, Sandyha would be the next logical target for the lynch. He supposed she might try to ally with another House to get out of it. That would be a risky proposition for anyone, but the Nobles might be desperate enough to do it. The Spiked couldn't be trusted. He was getting very annoyed by all of it. His house had been nearly exterminated. He was the only true Venture left. He shot a coin angrily into the sky. With the help of her allies, Sandyha would have little trouble lynching him. If he hadn't shot Dominic, he wouldn't be in this situation. He would be allies with the Spiked, instead of being hunted. He didn't want that fate though. He didn't want to be controlled. He wanted to be feared, true, but he didn't want to be controlled either. It would just be pity from an angry god. He would not accept that. His only regret was shooting Kipper. If he had listened to his gut instinct, his House would not be in this mess. There was an idea. He had a record of that, didn't he? He searched through the various ledgers. There! He had voted on the Inquisitor day 2. He supposed this could be a distancing tactic, but with the volatility of the lynches, why would he have risked something so blatant. There also could be the assumption that he was Spiked after that point. However, the Inquisitor was going after him with his Steel spike. The Inquisitor was prepared to die to give him that power. The only reason for that would be if the Inquisitor knew he was a Coinshot. The Spiked wanted a kill every cycle. Thus, someone from his House had to have been already Spiked for them to know that information. There were only two members in his faction right now. Since he was one of them, and was going to get converted, the other must be Spiked. It all pointed back to Elbereth. He just hoped the other Houses would listen to him.
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Tram needed to leave. There was something off about Jaena's death, and he needed to investigate it further. He couldn't afford to spend time here arguing with the other nobles. It might have clues to the identity of the Inquisitor. However, he could not leave without placing a vote. Such an action might draw displeasure on him from his benefactor. He decided to go with the flow, and vote for the one leading the lynch. "Vela (Burnt), I am sorry, but you have not convinced me of your innocence. I would argue more, but I am needed elsewhere. Good day." He hopped in the cab that had just arrived. Time was of the essence, and he was running out of it.
