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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    Whoops, I forgot to take my vote off of Ventyl when he posted. We should probably all be rather nervous right now.
  2. Araris Valerian
    It might make more sense for people planning to defend the camp to do the same as xino's contact (rather than reveal publicly, as Snipexe just did), to message another person who can reveal to the thread. That way the elims have a lower chance of being able to Invigorate the defenses. It would be easy to communicate through several different people, so that everyone isn't letting the elims know who to roleblock. For example, if someone else were to do the same thing, then they would want to tell someone besides xino. It would also make the defenders a bit more accountable to everyone else.
  3. Araris Valerian
    @Butt Ad Venture I'd just like to point out that voting on someone to get them to unvote on you is a very un-village way to use your vote. It doesn't encourage activity or help us gain any new information. Also, I agree that lynching an inactive is probably a good idea at this point, and CadCom has been fairly active. For the sake of discussion, I'll put my vote on Ventyl, since a lynch between two inactives might give us more information than a bandwagon on Snipexe.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Hmm, so far only 6 of the 13 players have posted. @StrikerEZ Wardell @Dr. Dapper: Rick Devotary of Spontaneity: Jenoue Xinoehp52: Ecnelis @Butt Ad Venture: Nathaniel Araris Valerian: Elysian Cadmium Compounder: Caden @Lumgol: Character TBD @Ventyl: Jerm Apple Alvron: Blackbane Elandera: Brodie Fields @Shqueeves: Jeeves @Snipexe: Snip We need you guys! (unless you are not on my team, in which case you can stay inactive )
  5. Araris Valerian
    If everyone went for the gun, then the village would win 11/13 or 10/13 times . Too bad we can't force the Forgotten to go after it.
  6. Araris Valerian
    Seems like the lantern could be very valuable late game (in a few cycles) after 1-2 elims have been killed, since it would let villagers confirm that they didn't submit the night kill.
  7. Araris Valerian
    @Sart If a player has a lantern, can they take the following action at night? As a Day Action, you may take an item from the supply. It will be revealed who took what item in the write-up. Basically, a player could confirm that their night action was accounted for with this method.
  8. Araris Valerian
    I’ll start off with a vote on Cadcom. Seems like the crab and the chalk are the two most useful items, for the village at least. Perhaps we could vote on who gets the gun, so that we don’t all kill each other trying to grab it, and so that it doesn’t vanish during the night. I’m not too sure on the usefulness of the lantern. The acid seems to be a worse piece of chalk, and the bribe won’t be too useful for either team until later on in the game. Elysian felt nervously the chalk in his pocket. He’d trained at Armedius for this, and yet he also hadn’t. Nebrask was supposed to be a defensive position, with tens of Rithmatists working to hold the line. Nothing had prepared him for a stealth mission. Nevertheless, his resolve was firm as a Line of Forbiddance. If this mission failed, humanity itself might be Forgotten.
  9. Araris Valerian
    I'm going to change my character to Elysian, who was mine during the Melee.
  10. Araris Valerian
    I'm pretty sure you're on the right track. You are exactly right about where the .05 comes from. The one thing that might be off is that the equation is the marginal propensity to save, and you probably want the marginal propensity to consume, since the question is about the consumption function. (I may be totally off here, since it's been a while since I did econ). Just check to make sure that you are solving the right problem, because your math checks out. Marginal propensity to consume + marginal propensity to save = 1, so the math won't change that much.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Wow, it's been so long that I'd forgotten I was in the first Rithmatist game, MR3. I guess I need to avenge Tavi this game (or betray his legacy, I suppose, if I'm a baddie).
  12. Araris Valerian
    Since it isn't really described in the book, I'm having a hard time envisioning the camp at Nebrask. Do you guys see it as temporary location, with tents and fire pits and so forth, or more as a village sort of thing with wood/stone buildings? It's hard to write when you don't have a good understanding of the setting, and I want to be consistent with other people.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Okay, so you may be better off googling this one. A quick search for "producers surplus" seemed promising. However, the first step is to find the market equilibrium, which is the value of x where supply = demand. Using the equations you are given, we would get 169 - x^2 = x^2 + 10x +141. You can reduce this to a quadratic equation: 2x^2 + 10x - 28 = 0 --> 2(x + 7)(x - 2) = 0. Since x can't be negative, the market equilibrium is at x = 2. Using either the supply or demand equations, we can find the price to be $165. Producer surplus is the area between the supply curve (p = x^2 + 10x + 141) and the constant price line at equilibrium (p = 165). To find the area between curves, we evaluate an integral of the difference between then two: The bounds of the integral are 0, since selling less than 0 units doesn't make sense, and 2, since that is where the market equilibrium happens.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Okay, so you want to do a u-sub again. Set u=x+4, and then du=dx. You can factor out the 30, since it is a constant, and you get 30 times the integral of u^(1/2) du, which you can solve with the regular power rule. For the previous problem, you want to set x^5-5x as u, and then du= 5x^4-5 dx, so (x^4-1)dx = 1/5 du. I think it just takes some practice to recognize what to choose as u, and until you've done it for a while it can seem kind of arbitrary.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Since there is a 5th degree polynomial and a 4th degree polynomial, I'd make the 5th degree one "u".
  16. Araris Valerian
    With the first part, you’ve almost got it. When the investment has doubled, then $P will become $2P. So you can write the equation: e^(13n) * P = 2P. (Basically saying that the money after n years equals double the initial money). Ps cancel and your calculator should be able to do the rest.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Okay, so the 1/3 comes from the u substitution. Since u is some form of x^3, du=3x^2 dx. Since the original equation only contains x^2dx, and not 3x^2 dx, you divide both sides by 3 to get 1/3du=x^2dx. I don’t have a great way to take a picture right now, but you can think of the e problems with u substitution as well. Take the e^(8x)dx from the last problem. We can write u=8x, and du=8dx, or dx=1/8du. When you substitute, you get the integral of 1/8*e^u du, which is 1/8e^u, or 1/8e^(8x). Possibly another way to think of it is the chain rule. When you take the derivative of e to some power, you get the e bit back, and multiply by the derivative of the exponent. Here, when you take the integral of e to some power, you get the e bit back, and divide by the derivative of the exponent.
  18. Araris Valerian
    @Kestrel The trick to use here is called "u-substitution." The idea is to find an expression and its derivative within the integral. When the integral is of polynomials, a good indication that u-sub is the right method is when there are two terms with degrees that differ by 1. You then substitute "u" for the higher degree polynomial, and du as the lower degree polynomial times the "dx" term. Using problem 1 as an example, we can see that there is a x^3 term and an x^2 term, so we probably want to set the x^3 polynomial as u. First write u=x^3+4. Then the derivative of u, du=3x^2 dx. We now substitute these expressions into the original example, giving the integral of u^2*du. We can evaluate this as 1/3 u^3. Then we substitute x^3+4=u back into the expression and get 1/3(x^3+4)^3. Then add a constant "c" since it is an indefinite integral. This same method should generalize to problems 2 and 3. For e^(something) integrals, its probably worth memorizing that integral(e(a*x) dx) = 1/a * e^(a*x). We can verify this by taking the derivative of 1/a * e^(a*x) = 1/a * a * e^(a*x) = e^(a * x). I hope that was helpful. If not, I can try again, or you could try looking up "u-substitution integrals" or something similar.
  19. Araris Valerian
    I'll sign up as Max.
  20. Araris Valerian
  21. Araris Valerian
    I mentioned this in the dead doc already, but this is one of the most fun LGs I've played recently. Many thanks to Striker and Mailliw for running the game!
  22. Araris Valerian
    There is no way that the elims have a Mistborn, or we would have had a lot more players dead.
  23. Araris Valerian
    What do you mean by this? You mean that a second village soother only makes sense if the elims have a smoker?
  24. Araris Valerian
    I'm going to put my vote on Snipexe. He's provided almost no content to analyze, but has posted enough to dodge the inactivity filter. Given Aman was a very public front for the elim team, I can definitely see some of the other team members hiding with low activity. Also, how is Ventyl soothing someone helpful at all? For one, (assuming elim!Ventyl) another elim could be the soother, unless a seeker has confirmed his role. It also doesn't really give us information, except in the case where there is only one elim that is Ventyl.
  25. Araris Valerian
    I'm sort of suspicious of Ventyl as well, although there's not really anything imbalanced with 2 village soothers. I do expect the elims to have either a soother, rioter, or seeker, but I don't know how helpful that is for finding one of them. @Ventyl Why do you say everyone knows your role? I have basically 0 knowledge of people's roles, hence my suggestion for people to claim if they thought elims knew. I'm not really sure what to make of Fifth, and could totally see the Fifth-Aman interactions this game being something they fabricated. On the topic of Snipexe, I sent him a PM asking for his current suspicions during the night cycle and still haven't heard back. If I were a Coinshot, I'd probably shoot Straw, since I don't think Straw has really given us enough content to do analysis on. I'd say that it is an elim tell, but it's just Straw. Devotary made a post last cycle that gave me village vibes, but now that Aonar is revealed to be Kandra I'm beginning to think Devotary might be elim. I'll try and do a more in depth analysis post today. I would also ask that all other players also do some analysis, whether that just means listing who they think the elims are or actually rereading the thread and going in depth. We need everyone to be posting suspicions to help root out elims.
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