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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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@Fifth Scholar, I think you may be tunneling on Doc. I'd also appreciate the Seeker hitting Snipexe, although I wouldn't be too surprised if the Inquisitor killed him tonight.
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I'm rather confuzzled by this game, to be honest. The lynch isn't a very reliable tool, and I've never been good at getting reads on people from PMs. I'll support Drake as Mayor, since his chances of being an elim seem rather low. Snipexe getting frustrated with mayoring could be an elim tell. In the first shard game, which was horrendously broken against the elims, I made a few posts to that effect. As for Alvron, I'm honestly not sure whether to believe his story. I'm leaning toward him being an elim, but I might be biased from my interactions with Aman recently. I'm somewhat suspicious of Fifth for voting on me last cycle. It didn't seem like a normal vote from Fifth, and he never acknowledged my response.
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Bother. Somehow I totally forgot that Snipexe had claimed misting this cycle. I feel rather silly about that, given I directly responded to his post and said we shouldn't lynch him (at least not specifically to allow a conversion). I guess I'll join Doc on Ray. The vanilla claim would be confirmed by a Seeker, and if he's telling the truth then there won't be a conversion tonight.
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@Rathmaskal, what do you think about Bard being Randuir's only village read in his analysis post? You mention the village read here, but Bard is the only person Randuir gave a village read. It seems odd to me that they would cause their teammate to stand out like that.
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I'm going to switch from Doc to Snipexe. I could be wrong and Doc could be the Inquisitor, but both players are suspicious, and I appreciate the effort Doc has put into his post this cycle. Seems rather lame to lynch someone after they demonstrate a willingness to be a solid contributor. We still have 3 hours left in the cycle, and only 6 votes placed. Current Vote Tally: Lumgol (1): Elandera Doc (2): Araris, Doc, Hael, Fifth Devotary (1): Sart Ray (1): Doc Snipexe (1): Araris
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Given that the elims apparently planned to lynch Wilson, it would seem rather odd for them to have the single vote on Wilson be one of their team. If it was necessary for an elim vote to be on Wilson to secure the lynch, then why me? I haven't really gathered any suspicion prior to this cycle. (Also, I'm an American with a sane sleep schedule, which is why I left. Rollover will never be seen by these eyes.) I suppose I agree with the Alv lynch, but in the interests of preserving the integrity of the lynch outcome, I won't add my vote. I still need to read what happened after I went to bed last night, so I'll withhold my suspicions for now. As for items, I just have the 3 Senators that I started with.
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I'm pretty sure things are only dead in the water because several players aren't participating very much. I feel like we have a decent amount of information, having lynched Rand. I posted 4 different lists of 3 players' suspicions, so that alone should be enough for everyone to place a vote. We already gave the Inquisitor a helping hand D1, and there's no reason to do so again.
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Snipexe came up during my cursory read of Randuir's analysis post. I picked out the people Randuir read as Neutral, but didn't dismiss for inactivity, which is the list from N3 in my above post. Doc is also on that list, and I voted for him because he's on Fifth's list as well. My vote isn't really based on anything that Doc has actually done, it's based on my analysis of Randuir.
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@Doc12 sorry you feel that way. If it helps, I don't think you need to read through the entire backlog. Just look at what Randuir posted after N1, since he hopefully left some clues about his recruiter. Also, if you do end up lynched this cycle, know that murder is the highest sign of respect in SE . Edit: Some suspect lists: From D2: From N3: From Elandera N3: Fifth's list this cycle: Hmm. I don't think a really agree with a Lumgol lynch in fact, unless someone provides a convincing argument. Maybe Snipexe could be an alternative to Doc. Also, could somebody @mention everyone who hasn't posted this cycle? I type a couple and then it stops working for some reason.
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I'm not really sure this is worth anything.
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Hmm. One of these days some eliminator is going to post something suggesting they don't understand their own roles, and I'm going to read them as village. But for now, I guess Rath is going to move down from my suspicion list. @Fifth Scholar, did you have any other reasons for putting Rath in your "reasonable trust" group? I suppose I'd prefer a lynch on either Lumgol or Doc, since I doubt Rand would have put the Inquisitor as his single Village read (Bard). Maybe we could do a tie and lynch both of them? Of the really low actives, I'd probably go after Ray for his vanilla claim, which would match a Seeker scan if the Inquisitor has UberCopper.
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I may be wrong, but I don't think Ark's alignment is well established. You are assuming (it seems to me at least) that Burnt is village, and that elim!Ark would name a Dagger something that would make him an obvious culprit when he used it. Who's to say that I didn't name a Dagger that and stab Burnt to frame Ark? Or perhaps Ark did stab Burnt, but was honestly suspicious. I'll add my vote to Striker.
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I just did a read over Randuir's analysis post. Quick summary below: I'd wager that the Inquisitor is in the Neutral category. I'd guess one of Burnt, Snipexe, Doc, or Rath, based on that analysis alone. Edit: Rath is the only one of these 4 that was in my other list, so I'd prefer a Coinshot/Seeker target him.
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Because of how much most SE players value PMs (regardless of whether they personally use them), it seems reasonable that Joe would make Wilson corrupt, if he didn't do it randomly. I personally think that PMs can be detrimental to a game. The reason to wait a bit is because we only have one more Constable lynch. It would be nice to get everyone to say which constable they prefer to lynch and have some discussion around that before we potentially make things much harder. Also, I see that @little wilson is watching. Just want to let you know that my pursuit of your death is nothing personal .
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I think we should lynch a Constable as well, and I of course want to lynch Wilson. Seems to me that since everyone likes PMs so much, that’s the constable Joe would make corrupt. Also, this being a QF game, keeping up with PMs on top of the thread seems like a pain. I’ll also vote for Araris to be the governor. Seems like a reasonable enough fellow.
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Just noting that I'm here, and that Randuir should die. I might have more later.
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Good point. There is a 50% chance that the elims have a Soother, discounting any potential UberPowers the Inquisitor has.
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Hmm. I'm not sure what I think about having 2 votes on myself for the stated reasons of being active and participating in the lynch. That being said, @Randuir, I think that Striker is less likely to be an elim based on that post. It just doesn't seem well thought out (no offense), which runs contrary to my expectations of the elims. Now, if Bard or Rand are elims, then I'd lynch Striker in a heartbeat, because his vote on me could be an attempt to protect the Inquisitor/convert. Consequently, I'm happy with my current vote on Bard. As for Randuir's claim, we should be able to verify that with a Seeker, assuming he doesn't die.
