Aonar

Finally got time to write up a response to this: I haven't said much in the Thread (I am trying to not get quite so involved in this game; finals are coming up next month), but I've been plenty active in PMs (I'm not one of the people who know all the Spanreed holders though). My biggest suspicions were and are Jim Bob and Grellin. At that point in the last Day though, they'd both been called out already, and there was no real point in voting for either of them. There's no way Grellin would have been lynched, and I didn't really feel like messing with Meta's plans by voting for Jim Bob. He carries a lot of influence, and a vote to kill Jim Bob could also be construed as a vote to protect Tors, the person that several people found most suspicious at the time. Probably not helping myself much here, but I think being as open as possible about my motivations is likely a good thing, seeing how I can't unequivocally prove myself innocent this time 'round.

... Of course, if there's going to be a signing in Canada, it has to be halfway across the country. One question I wouldn't mind having asked is: Does the loss of colour in Awakening directly correlate to the colour lost when a limb is severed by a Shardblade? And if so, can the colour being drained in Awakening be modeled as energy being drawn from or connections being broken in something's Spiritual Aspect? I know that one's a little awkwardly worded, but I'm trying to avoid loopholes. If he doesn't RAFO it, this should confirm one of my pet theories, which would be awesome.

Dang.... I was originally planning on offering to help out, Hero, but that game looks sounds like it's going to be awesome. If you feel like you might need the help, I'd be more than willing, and should be around plenty for day to day clarifications and the like. However, if you don't think you'll need it, I'm definitely going to be signing up for this one.

For the first time that night, Faialen cut off his playing. The song ended in a discordant tangle of notes as Sprenil made his announcement. Storms. He's got some spheres for a Stormwarden. Asking to be hanged in front of a mob of scared and paranoid Lighteyes? Alethi Lighteyes? That was madness. Faialen could name a dozen people at this party who would be more than willing to take Sprenil up on his preposition. More then a few of them likely had the means to do it personally, too. Faialen was perplexed, but content to wait and listen. As discussion resumed and more suspicions were voiced, he struck up a new melody. Tense and clear; the different lead lines weaving in and out like voices in a debate, the bass strings droning ominously in the background all the while. Well, this is interesting. I have a few suspicions, but nothing concrete enough to vote on. (Most of those I consider suspicious have been called out already anyway.)

Small musicspren flitted about in front of Faialen. He sat of in the corner of the hall, keeping his rhythm steady despite the terrible news that was spreading. His habit of playing at these events was considered deplorable, if not heretical behaviour for a young man from a powerful house, but it was one of the few things that brought him comfort, and his family was just influential enough he could get away with it. In all honesty, Faialen didn't much care that the King was dead. He'd never cared much for the court, and given all the problems back in Alethkar, as well as the untenable war of attrition being fought on the Plains, it would be hard for Naladar's replacement to do worse. 'Tis rather late where I am, so not much in the way of RP. Analysis on the other hand... Looking at the roles, the number of players, and Maill's clarifications, I think we can make a couple deductions. 1st: Seeing how there are sixteen separate roles, and twenty players, we can assume there will be two players completely without roles. Only the Spanreed is likely to be doubled, and one of those Spanreeds will likely belong to the GBs. There is also most likely one GB without an item. 2nd: The only players who can be conclusively proven innocent are the Soulcaster and the Shardblade bearer. Logically, the GB's cannot start with these items, but pretty well anything else is probably fair game. (Though with the number of players we have, I highly doubt that the GB have the Grandbow.) Once again, it's very late, so that's all I've got for tonight, and I'm a little too tired to even tell if any of this is helpful. I figured I may as well try though.

Finally finished reading the PK doc. That thing is massive. I feel terrible now for everyone who tried to read though our 75,000 word doc from game two. It was very well played for the most part. Major props to Wilson for manipulating me for that long. There were several points where I was suspicious of her, but she never quite made the top of my List. I should really have listened to my gut (and Maill's suggestions) and killed her on the Fifth night. That was a lot of fun, though I must say it is far more stressful trying to coordinate everybody as a Monk than conspiring kill everybody as a Spiked.

Cuddles is certainly a weird way to go out. This is my attempt at a half-decent death/end of game post, but I'm writing this after midnight my time, after getting likely far less sleep than I should have for the last little while, so bear with me. There was a faint sound upon the wind, like a lute being played in the far distance. It was a bittersweet sound, one part melancholy, one part strangely happy. Aodan sighed and rose from his position on the Salmon's roof. Much had been lost in the pursuit of peace, but much had been gained also. He stretched out of habit as he stood, despite no longer having muscles to make the gesture necessary. He supposed he really should have stuck around and spoken with Tril and Gammer, but he needed to see how things would work out first. Now at least things had finally been set right. The last traitor was going to die, and negotiations would proceed largely as planned; neither side having a great advantage. He couldn't fault the Hallandrens for trying to balance the scales with his death, but It seemed as though it wouldn't make much difference for them now. Whatever Wil'son, and the other traitors said about his death's repercussions, to Aodan's eyes it looked like the Idrians and Hallandrens were in a position to reconcile. United by a mutual enemy, they were working together properly for the first time since the Manywar. Looking over the assembled ambassadors, he smiled contentedly, and faded back into the void, searching for whatever it was that lay beyond. The soft music continued for a moment, and a few of those gathered seemed almost to hear. Then it too faded. For a time, silence hung heavy over the Salmon, as its patrons waited for the day's end. But silence too has its purpose, for without silence, new songs cannot be written.

Grim/Joe: Oh, you should have seen my Lists from the last game. Nearly three thousand words before the end of the Third day. They're on my other computer right now, but they ended up huge. And it still wasn't quite enough to catch all of the PK. Still. They proved very useful. I have new ideas for even better Lists this round, as well as analyses of previous behaviour for each returning player and... I think I might be preparing too much.

Well, I can't see the current game lasting too much longer, so I may as well sign up for this one. However, if you find this game getting too big Maill, feel free to boot me out. After that last game, I highly doubt that I'll be taking on a really important role in this game anyway. "Brightlord Faialen, musician and scion of House Ruthar, at your service," the young man said bowing deeply in the general direction of his new fellows. "I'm not usually much for the court's politics, but it seems we don't have much choice, eh? Being threatened with death can be quite the motivator." He gave a wry grin, and retreated to a corner to tune his lute. Trying for a slightly lighter character this time. Knowing my luck though, now I'm going to get a Shardblade or the Thief role or something.

The thing is, we've already killed two of their Awakeners. If a full half of them were Awakeners, they could only have started with one extra Breath each. This completely excludes Barty and Wilson. Your reasoning could work if all the PK we'd killed had been normal, or if there had been only one Awakener, but knowing what we know now, really only Ver fits.

I'm also fairly certain that he's inactive. However, there are other things that make him suspicious. There are three instances immediately following his announced inactivity where the Pahn Kahl tried to cast suspicion on him. First, Jeo tried to lead a vote on him at the beginning of day three. Second: Peng tried to start another vote for him on Day Four. Third: Peng claimed to be Strawmanning him on Night Four, likely with the intent to reveal Ver's nature as a PK, and try to protect himself, due to his status as the Swordbearer. This might seem like a bit of a stretch, but it's the same sort of gambit I would have pulled as a Pahn Kahl. Wilson and Barty are largely cleared for the same reason you and Rick are. They both used up a large and verifiable quantity of Breath in the first three days. Quite seriously, at this point I'm confident enough that I'd eat my hat monk's robes if Ver isn't the last PK.

That sound like a good plan Claincy. It's nice to have a setting where you can bring people back to life, eh? Alright then. There are five people who cannot be proven innocent, but only three that I have honest reason to be suspicious of. Ver Barty Wilson Rick Summon With the lack of a kill last night, either Ver is the last PK, or someone wants us to think Ver is the last PK. I'm inclined towards the former, as neither Barty or Wilson are overly suspicious in my mind. As Ver appears truly inactive, there isn't much evidence for him being a PK. There is one big one though. Almost immediately after he went inactive, a few of the PK began voting for him or suggesting to "Strawman" him. An inactive, evil player can prove a very nice cover, as Jeo showed in the last game. To give a bit of the reasoning behind this List, and the last few night kills, here's the original List, and how we came to those conclusions. ​First, we separated people based on Breath use, using criteria that both Nepene and I outlined earlier. Peng Rowan Elo Ben Jeo Gammer Asgren Cen Ver Thomas Tulir Meta Sifa Wyrm We then removed Wyrm, Meta, Sifa, Rowan and Ver because of their roles/behaviour. From there, we just started going through the List by priority. Jeo was obviously PK from the whole Day Three fiasco, Peng was an uncooperative Awakener with the right amount of Breath to be the Swordbearer, Elo gave away Breath to Peng the third night, Asgren and Tulir had suspicious actions and voting patterns. This left Ben, Gammer, Cen, and Thomas. None of whom were greatly suspicious, so we added back in Meta, Barty, Wes, Wilson, Sart and Rowan. Tulir's death excluded Rowan and Cen, leaving Ben, Gammer, Barty, Wes, Wilson and Sart. Now, we're left with Barty, Wes, and Wilson. Once again, we don't find any on them really suspicious. So there are two others. Ver is inactive, and Rick Strawmanned Elo the night he attacked Alan. The last PK will be on this List somewhere. If you see any flaws in our reasoning, feel free to point them out.

Aodan sat on the inn’s roof with Elo’s lute, his heavy, white monk’s robe warding against the chill. His nightly meetings were over; if the night went well, there would be only one murderer remaining. He couldn’t rest, however. Seven Ambassadors were dead, four of them his kinsmen. More would be joining them far too soon. Picking up the lute, he began to play again. It was an old song that he played, composed during the darkest months of the Manywar. It was made up of rolling minor chords and an oft dissonant melody that hinted at sorrow and violence. In its quiet chords, there was a lament for those who had fallen and would fall, and a promise that they would not go without being avenged. Well. This night should be interesting. Things are winding down though, and it's getting harder and harder to predict the Pahn Kahl's actions. As I've said, hopefully they'll be down to one tonight.

Joe: Sure. It's better than freezing to death in the mountains, even if Duladel's being controlled by power-hungry Derethi zealots. Speaking of which, anybody know what time is this set relative to the Reod? Maill: You can be with us in spirit.

You may as well vote for me. I've already gained two votes to my knowledge (one from Kai, since I'm voting for her, and one from Vron, though being voted for simply because I've shown some slight degree of competence in this game feels weird; all it means it that it'll be that much worse when I'm lynched unnecessarily), and with how aggressively I've been playing this, the Mysteries probably don't want me alive either. I'm not expecting to stay alive long, whatever happens. I'm feeling a little suspicious of Vron. Past success doesn't mean that everything I'm writing is going to be an attempt to deceive people. I've tried to be fairly open in my role in the other game, and excepting the gambit at the beginning, (which was more for fun that anything) I haven't deceived anyone. (As an aside, the gambler's fallacy is a terrible way to justify anything. There's about a 1/120 chance of him being evil three games in a row, but after he was evil the first two games, he had the same chance [1/4] as anyone else to be evil in this game.)

Ah, but they know that it would be silly. We know that they know it would be a bad idea, and that logically, they would never kill someone who had voted for them. So you would appear to be clean by that reasoning. The problem is, they know we know that it would be a bad idea for them to kill Mai, so they would kill Mai, knowing we would discount you as a suspect... But we know they know we know they know it would be a bad idea to kill Mai, so we can't trust anyone, whether they were voted for by Mai or not... What was I trying to explain again? Basically, it boils down to the fact that observation of an action changes the action, and the observation of this changed action changes it again. It theoretically keeps going on infinitely, with the two eventual outcomes being equally probable. We can't trust anyone. There isn't really anything more to it. Thanks for correcting the time-frame though. In the current full-size game that extra condition is missing, because the sheer number of killing/defending abilities keep the outcome from being set once the PK and ambassadors reach even numbers. (Which won't happen, but still.) So yeah. Three days to find one, five to find the lot of them. I was planning on voting last cycle, (for Mai, ironically enough) but real life got in the way. I've gotten my vote in early this cycle, just in case something happens again.

Grey: Maill was the only person in the thread to openly proclaim who he was voting for. He was also the very first person to be killed. Coincidence much? It could have simple been the Mysteries trying to discourage anything that might lead to cohesive behaviour, or Maill could have gotten lucky. We won't know for sure until we act (or die, of course ). So for the time being, I'll be voting Kai. Remember: There are no coincidences. ; )

After being rudely awakened by the outpost's more-than-slightly-hysterical guests, Faidh wasn't sure what to do. His predictions had proven true, and it didn't seem like anything had really changed. Everyone was still quiet, still unfocused, still unwilling to work together to do what needed to be done. Something needed to change, but what? One would have thought another death would have been enough to provoke people to action. Hmm... I'm thinking we're going to have to find some way to work together here. If we keep our votes and suspicions secret we're never going to get anywhere. If we play the same way today as we did yesterday we may as well hand the Mysteries their victory. Before he died, Mai voiced suspicion for Kai. This might mean nothing, or it might me everything. I myself am going to vote Kai this cycle. Team evil has a decent advantage right now. Presuming that they know who each other are, they can coordinate their votes, while we're stuck here too paranoid to really discuss things. We should be calling who we suspect, and saying who we'll be voting for and why. I'm hoping that the Priest of Jesker has targeted someone and started building a trustworthy group. We really need to use this cycle to get something done. Four days, people. We have to find one of them before the fifth day, or we're dead.

Twelve are playing, so that means there are 3 Jeskeri Priests (I really doubt it would be higher, or lower, as it would make things either too easy or too hard for us). Assuming we get lucky, this could be over pretty fast. However, the lack of special roles and the compressed time-frame means we've got a lot less to go off of. It also means we can't sit around waiting for the Priests (I mean team evil, I figure there's only one Seeker-type Priest) to make a move. Faidh grimaced when he saw the freeholders body. Being stuck in this Domi-forsaken trading post in midwinter was bad enough, but it was clear things were just going to get worse. He'd had run-ins with the Mysteries' handiwork before, and odds were that they weren't going to stop until the whole outpost was dead. He gave their small group six days. Seven if they got lucky, five if they didn't. If they didn't catch the killers in those six days... Faidh didn't want to think about what was going to happen to them.

Currently, my largest Idrian suspicion is Thomas. If he's not PK, then I applaud whoever is; you're doing a pretty darn good job. However, there are only four possible PK Idrians. Thomas, Tril, Rowan and Cen. Of those four, Thomas is the most suspicious, which is why I'd be most comfortable with lynching him this cycle. Hallandren suspects are a little more broad, really because there are very few who I have real reason to be suspicious of, and even fewer who I feel I can trust. Once again, nicely done. I was suspicious of both Gamma and Ben in the early game, but less so now. (You're by no means off the table though.) Excepting Quiver, who seems to have gone inactive, most of the still living Hallandrens have made one or another gestures (making Strawmen, donating Breath, etc) that make them seem fairly trustworthy. However, in this game, that means nothing.

Aodan sat in the corner of the restaurant, ignoring for now the small discussion taking place. It had been another successful night, though not so great as the last had been. He had things to mull over before he made another accusation. Elo's lute case sat at his feet, unopened. It had survived the fire in the library miraculously untouched. He'd taken it as a memento, a token to remember the lives that had been lost, and the damage that had been done. Aodan bent down and undid the clasps. The lute was a thing of beauty, perfectly shaped and in pristine condition. Hesitantly, he plucked a few of the strings and adjusted the tuning keys. It was amazing how much easier these sorts of things were with absolute pitch. Glancing around to be sure no one was paying attention, Aodan began to play. Slow and halting at first, but gradually increasing in speed and complexity as old knowledge came back to the fore. Conversation slowed and stopped; the restaurant's patrons taking notice. He would've preferred they keep talking, but for now he continued to play, pondering the best course of action for the coming hours. Being a (wannabe) musician IRL, I couldn't resist. I hope you don't mind me borrowing your lute, Elo. Would people mind actually discussing things a little? I have suspicions, but no one I'm certain enough of to start a mass lynching on.

Eh... why not. I'm in too. It's not like the current game's going to last much longer anyway. To make a name with the other half of my username this time, I'll be Faidh. (There are two possible Aons in there, but neither of them have definitions unfortunately.) A compressed game like this should be interesting.

Walking into the Salmon, Aodan smiled grimly. Wyrm was gone, but now the Pahn Kahl would pay for what they had done. Their Awakener was dead, the Sword was safe, and now Alan's attempted murderer would be brought to justice. "We got lucky last night. A Strawman happened to catch Alan's would-be murderer. Do you have anything to say, Elo?" You've had a good run Elo, but I know who the Commander is, and it isn't you. Three down.

Well. I really didn't want to do this, but now that I have to, it may be too late. Wyrm is a Returned. I cannot be sure of his alignment, as I have not yet been able to Spy him (and he has acted very suspiciously), but I am fairly certain he is what he claims to be. If he is Pahn Kahl, then they will lose a powerful player, but if he isn't then we will lose a still more valuable asset.

Darn. I didn't realize Fifth Heightening won't protect against the Sword. I'm still not dying any time soon though. The goal here is not to keep the Pahn Kahl from acting, or to make me more powerful, but I have a list of about 6 of you who I believe may be Pahn Kahl. It's very interesting to see who of them object, and why. Those of you who are already Drab, or have gotten off this list by other means, I'm not expecting to give away your Breath. Let's imagine a worst case scenario. They get really lucky, the Mercenary kills their regular, and the Swordbearer kills me. We have more information, and they don't have any spare Breath. Realistically, they can't gain our Breath by any means, so that's not a concern. I'm fine with you making a Strawman tonight Peng, I'm just going to be confirming that that's what you're doing. Lets do a slightly more complete analysis of the Pahn Kahl night actions: To start, here's some basic assumptions: 1. If the Pahn Kahl were able to make a Sword on the Second Night, they would have. 2. Therefore, the Pahn Kahl must have started with between five and nine Breath. 3. Seeing how they were able to make a Sword on the Third Night, they must have made up the difference between their Starting Breath and the ten Breath required using the Breath lottery and their Night kills. Now, on to their logical actions based on these assumptions. Night 1: Everyone but the person preforming the Night Kill enters the Breath lottery. Night 2: There are two possible situations here. 1. As the previous Night Kill was unsuccessful, we can assume they won between one and five Breaths in the lottery. Statistically, it is far more likely for them to have been able to gain one or two Breath in the lottery than it is for them to gain four or five, so it is fairly safe to assume they started with around eight Breaths. They would have been careful to transfer exactly the amount required for the Sword. The Swordbearer would not have taken any Night Action. Whichever Pahn Kahl did not transfer their Breath would preform the Night Kill. The majority of the Pahn Kahl would be Drab. 2. The Pahn Kahl do not gain enough Breath to make the Sword. Every Pahn Kahl transfers Breath to the Swordbearer, and the Swordbearer makes the Night kill. In this case, they likely would have started with seven Breaths or less. Every Pahn Kahl save the Swordbearer is now Drab. Night 3: The Swordbearer Awakens "Cuddles" and all the other Pahn Kahl save the person preforming the Night Kill re-enter the Breath lottery. Most of the Pahn Kahl are likely to still be Drab.