luckat

I apologize for apologizing. This has just been an off game for me. Now that we know Jain is the Gyorn, there's two groups to look at. If there is an Odiv, it is luckat, Wilson, Kas, Twei, or Spaghetti. It seems likely that Jain chose an Odiv last night if he hadn't already due to the amount of suspicion on him. However, it is not certain. Regardless of whether he did or not, nothing we say now can change what choice he made, so I think some discussion of each possible Odiv and who we think Jain would choose would be useful as long as it doesn't get in the way of finding Cultists. It's too late for me to add anything here though. There's also the possible Cultists: Hael, Spaghetti, Clanky, Dow, Araris, Emerald, Claincy, Silverblade, Wyrm, Seonid, Sart, and luckat. Probably two or three of these are Cultists. Seonid is less likely because he was attacked. I'm not sure who I suspect the most. I do want to say that I disagree that a lack of a Lover kill is a good reason to rule out Wyrm. That would depend a lot on who the Lovers actually are as well as what the Cultists' current priorities are with their attacks. Many of the Cultists' attacks have failed. Wilson, Seonid, Twei, and whoever the attack night 6 was on (do we know who that was?) were all attacked, but there is no evidence one way or the other whether any of them is a Lover. It is possible there was an attack on a Lover that failed. Conversely, perhaps the Lovers aren't priority targets right now. There are several confirmed players with more to come because of a Priest as well as at least one Warrior. If the Cultists know the identities of a pair of Lovers, they might think one of them is likely to be lynched, or at least that killing them will only narrow down the suspects and make them easier to find. Also, an early hit on Lovers would have made a Dula immediately suspicious, and that's not a role that is easy to hide, as we have seen, so if they have a Dula, it's not surprising they didn't go after the Lover pair the first night. The question of whether the Cultists would have a Dula in the first place is a valid one, although I don't think we can by any means claim it's safe, especially when there's two, but in my opinion the lack of a Lover death does not say anything one way or the other about Dulas. It's really late, so I'm not sure if I made any sense here or said anything useful. I'll post anyway because I might as well say something. I'm not sure if I'll have time to put together actual suspicions.

I’m really sorry about how inactive I’ve been. Again. I just haven’t been able to put much thought into this game, and I don’t usually like to post unless I have something to add to the discussion. For now it seems like Karlin is going to be lynched. I’ll add a vote for him just to make sure nothing can happen, although I don’t think there’s anything anyone can do to mess with the lynch right now anyway. If he’s good, I hope he’s made someone trustworthy the heir for his Seon so it’s not lost. (I hope he’s done that if he’s not good too, but I doubt he would.) I’ll try to look through some of the thread again and put together some analysis during the night cycle, but I’m not sure if I’ll have time. I know I haven’t been all that helpful this game, and I’m sorry.

I said who had been converted because I figured I might as well get that out before too much time passed. I knew I wasn’t up for any actual analysis, but I didn’t want info about the converts to be kept from the thread until I had time to organize my thoughts about other things. I added the bit about Meta being poisoned because it was on my mind at the time. That wasn’t analysis. It was a quick sentence showing how unlikely it was that Meta had not been poisoned. I wasn’t trying to imply I thought Meta had lied. And that wore me out. I changed my play style a lot for LG11 (and MR5 and QF6 to an extent). I was a lot more active in PMs than I have ever been, although I still didn’t post a lot. I was trying something new, and it worked during those games, but now I’m still trying to recover from all those conversations. I thought I might be able to be more active in this game after a cycle or two despite how I felt at the end of LG11, but I’m still not in a good mindset to contribute and post. I’m sorry I haven’t been contributing. I’ve been trying to, but I just haven’t had many thoughts this game, and the ones I have had I’ve been having trouble putting into words. One thing that I was thinking about was how much we could trust Meta. I thought how quickly Winter gave up when Meta came forward was a bit odd. Not only did she not even attempt to fight back, she gave up within ten minutes, which isn’t really much time to discuss with her teammates. But any plan I thought of that involved Meta being a Cultist sacrificing one of their own sounded contrived and unnecessary, and I didn't want to bring it up when it would distract from other players. After reading through the thread, however, I found that Araris’s explanation makes the most sense. In fact, it explains it so well that I almost find myself wondering about his alignment and whether he saw Winter’s thoughts. However, I don’t think that’s really enough to accuse him, and I know he’s clever enough on his own that seeing it isn’t the only way he could come up with that idea. I think it wouldn't hurt for the people Meta scans to get in touch with him so they can vouch that he knows their roles (other than Kas since he already shared his role), but other than that I think we can trust Meta for now. Player analysis isn’t my strength. I’m better at analyzing game mechanics and strategies. Right now I think the thing I could most effectively analyze is possible Gyorn strategies, but I don’t want to give them any ideas and I don’t think we really need to focus on them for at least a few more cycles other than to share converts and keep in mind that anyone other than a Priest could become the Odiv eventually. The Cultists are a bigger threat right now. I can try to analyze all the players, but I’m not sure how well I can even do. It would take a while, and I don't have much time today.

There's a new convert to Shu-Dereth: Wilson. That seems likely. Meta claimed to have a Korathi Pendant, so either he was lying about that and the Shaod happened to hit him now, or he was poisoned. It seems like a Cultist attempt to get him out of the way.

I finally got caught up reading everything. Hopefully I’ll be able to stay caught up and actually contribute going forward. I don’t have a lot of time right now, but I’ll try to write up some thoughts in a few hours. For now, since Winter is clearly a Cultist, I’ll vote for her just for in case anything weird happens.

I figure I should post this before I go to bed: The Gyorn decided to target me for conversion again. I have no idea if it was because they really wanted me to be converted or because they didn’t want to give more info about who they were by spreading out the targets, or just because it was likely converting me would be successful since my Pendant was already used and it was unlikely I had another one. The other convert is Zas.

I'm really sorry about how inactive I have been. I've barely had time to read some of the posts, let alone do any analysis on them. I'll try to do more in the future. I'm really just dropping in here because I have some information that I thought I should share. I'm the one the Gyorn tried to convert. I'm sorry for not mentioning this earlier. I spent most of the time I had for this game during the day cycle trying to figure out whether that would be revealed. (If it hadn't been revealed, I was considering whether it might be better to let the Gyorn think I could be a Priest.) Now that it has been, I think it's better for me to share this information so we have a better idea of who the Gyorn is based on who they want to convert, even though I won't have future convert lists. I'm going to try to look back through the thread and see if there's anything I can contribute. It will probably take a while though.

I’m really sorry I’ve been so inactive. I’ve been a lot busier than I thought I would be, and I haven’t had time to really look at what everyone’s said, let alone post. I’m trying to get my thoughts together, but I have a headache, so I don’t know how much sense I’ll make. First, I’ll put up a current vote tally. Dow (2): Jain, Bort Hael (1): Clanky Luckat (1): Kas Wonko (1): Araris Clanky (1): Kipper Piff (1): Meta Spencer (1): Dow This isn’t necessarily complete because Elantrians could have voted, but they can only vote for each other and there’s only four of them right now so we probably don’t have to worry about that right now. However, we don’t want to completely ignore the Elantrians. While it doesn’t seem likely the Cultists started with any (although they could have), and obviously none of them are the Gyorn, eventually there will be Cultists among them. Some of the things Phatt said last cycle seemed a bit suspicious, but now we can’t really talk to him about them. Obviously, voting for them wouldn’t be very useful right now because they could only respond through someone with a Seon and it wouldn’t be good to make them all Hoed. However, it would be good for some of the people with Seons to open discussion with them, if they haven’t already. Regarding Orlok’s death, I agree with the others who have said there are too many possibilities for discussion about it to be very productive. People can only be converted during the night. I agree with everyone who has said that whoever is converted should speak up. No one has yet that I’ve seen, so maybe the gyorn converted a lurker. For now, I think all we need to do about the gyorn is keep track of converts until we know more about their strategy. Spencer also hasn’t posted since signing up, and he didn’t give any reason for being inactive that I saw. What is also interesting is that his vote was used by a vote manipulator last cycle. I don’t know what to make of that, if anything.

I’ll straggle in as Liala. She’s been around longer than anyone remembers, but she doesn’t remember things as well as she used to.

Wonko, both other times someone was attacked when they were protected by iron, they were referred to as "someone". We know Kirrah has Feruchemical iron by process of elimination. On night 6, Hemalurgic Feruchemical iron was observed in B2. The only people who were in B2 when the Feruchemical iron was present were Vine, Alvron, Splinter, Sart, Wonko, and Twei. Most of these are dead now. Unless you lied about your powers, the only one left is Twei. In addition, Twei was one of the ones who was in B2 when the Feruchemical iron attack came, and unless you were the someone who was attacked, you were not. Twei must have Hemalurgic Feruchemical iron. She claimed something else, so she lied about her powers. Before last night we had the Feruchemical iron narrowed down to Acer and Kirrah, but Acer's death just showed which one it was. I had hoped there wasn't enough stored yet for an attack, and I'm sad so many died. At least we've found another Spiked now. Kirrah.

I'll add my vote to Jaelre because I'm sure he is spiked. Also, I can vouch for Meta. Araris was spreading lies.

First, I’m sorry I haven’t been very active in the thread. I’ve been busy for the last couple of weeks, but I should be less busy now, so hopefully I’ll be able to be more active. Second, a vote tally: Alvron (8): Wonko, Neo, Ostrich, Bort, Karlin, Maill, Dow, luckat Nicroburst (1): Araris Jaelre (1): Meta Meta (1): Jaelre I agree with the vote on Alvron. I’ve seen compelling evidence for it in PMs. Finally, I have a plan to help us find the Spiked more efficiently, but it will require cooperation. As has been mentioned, Ostrich was verified by Vine. I was also verified by Vine, and any of you can check that with Ostrich. We want to try to find the Spiked as best we can, and since we’re verified, we think it is a good idea for people to share information with us. If we have information about people’s powers, actions, items, and positions throughout the game, it will be possible to learn a lot about the identities, positions, and capabilities of the Spiked. We want to organize this as efficiently and openly as possible. We need cooperation from as many people as possible for the information to be useful. We don’t want to turn this into a dictatorship at all, and what you share and what you do is entirely up to you. However, I hope you will see the benefit of getting a lot of information together.

Sorry about being less active. I'm pretty busy with school right now. I'll have more time in about a week. About Tulir, I pointed that out because I had voted for him earlier, and Wonko reminded me Tulir had said he would be away, so that was on my mind. Clanky, you missed Jain's vote for Jaelre. So it's a seven way tie.

There's not much time left, but I have something to add. Phatt gave me his seeking results from the second night, and they included hemalurgic allomantic bronze. I asked my Kandra contact, and it wasn't due to a Kandra, so there must have been a spiked seeker. Earlier in the game, Winter told me she was in contact with a seeker besides Phatt and that they had given her some results from the first night. I thought it was a little odd that they would trust her like that, especially when those results included that there had been both hemalurgic and nonhemalurgic versions of her feruchemical power active. When I learned there was a spiked seeker who had been in the Town Square during the second night, I decided to ask Winter about the seeker she had been in contact with earlier. At first she didn't give me their name, but said she would tell them I wanted to contact them. After a while, I pushed harder and explained why I thought the seeker was spiked. She finally relented and said the seeker was Spencer. I decided to contact Spencer myself, and he said he was not a seeker, had never claimed to be one, and had never been in contact with Winter. He also gave me some good evidence and a contact who confirmed what he said. Throughout this process, I felt that Winter was acting odd, and Spencer seemed sincere. While I could be wrong, I think Winter is the one who was lying. (And also, it is a bit late to change the lynch.) I'll vote for her now. If she turns out to not be spiked, Spencer definitely is. If Winter is spiked and she's not the spiked seeker, there is still a spiked seeker out there, so any claims to Allomantic bronze should be looked at with suspicion. Votes Winter (5) Lev, Araris, Dow, Spencer, luckat Dow (2): Clanky, Badger Clanky (1): Bort Wonko (1): Twei Fel (1): ostrich Did he actually tell you that his spiking was based on bronze results, or did you infer it? Everything I've seen indicates he just attacked Wonko for his power.

Thanks for posting Spencer, lev, Dow, and Neo. I'm glad people have been discussing a bit today. I hope there is more in the future. I forgot Tulir said that. Sorry. I'll retract that vote because he has a good reason. It would have been nice if he had reminded us of that like Mailliw did though. There's not really time to lynch someone this cycle, and everyone close enough to be lynched has voted, so I'll hold back my vote again. I was in the Town Square when I was attacked. I was attacked during action cycle 1. Everyone was in the Town Square then. Also, no one could have initiated an attack from a different room that night. However, in that RP the person who was attacked was sleeping during the attack. I was not sleeping at that time. I've asked Aonar about hints in the RP, and he said that, other than what is explicit, the RP doesn't necessarily have anything to do with what actually happened. I don't think we could use it to determine the alignment of the spiker. Besides, I think there is an argument to be made that they were already spiked, but had never been the one to charge a spike before. Caution is a good plan, but for now I think the Kandra are willing to work with us. We do have the numbers, after all. He never mentioned anything about his powers to me, and I didn't hear anyone else mention him talking about his powers. We have no way of knowing who knew something about him from PMs, and I doubt the Spiked would mention it if it was a factor. Edit: Aonar, doesn't Araris still have a vote on Eol?

First, I am in contact with a Kandra who is willing to work with us for a Village win. We're going to want to coordinate with them to find and eliminate the Spiked more easily. If the people here agree and are willing to trust me, I can serve as a liaison to the Kandra. Next, the day is already more than half over, and there's only one vote. We need to start trying to find the Spiked. We're not going to be able to do that unless we're more active. I know a lot of us have been in PMs, but we need to remember that the thread is where our most valuable information is. Not posting just makes it easier for the Spiked to hide. There are nine people who have not posted at all since the game started: Nicroburst, Spencer, Splinter, Tulir, lev, Dow, Neo, Sart, and Jaelre. We need you to post. This inactivity is going to hurt us. I normally don't like poke votes, but with so little discussion happening so far, I'm going to vote for Tulir. I've seen that you've been on, and I'd like to know what you've been doing this game and if you have anything to add. We need to put together the information we have so far. There have been two nights. The Spiked have attacked two people. First, they attacked me, but I was protected. Next, they attacked Joe, and he died. Joe didn't say much. During the first night, he advocated keeping what room we're in secret. He didn't say anything after that. Perhaps there is something we can glean from these targets. Also there are the time bubbles. We know there were two Cadmium mistings and two Bendalloy mistings active during Night 1. According to Winter and Piff, there was at least one Cadmium misting active during Night 2. It would be helpful for them to tell us where they were and whether they moved in addition to how many actions they lost so we can figure out what time bubbles were active. Joe was a Cadmium misting, but given people's reactions to the Cadmium last cycle, it seems likely he would not have left it on. There's no way to know for sure, but I suspect a spiked Cadmium misting is responsible for the lost actions this cycle. The Bendalloy mistings might not have been active and might have spread out to other rooms.

So topics of the cycle: the attack, the time bubbles, and the vote. The Attack This is probably the most important thing for me to comment on right now. I received a message from someone who claimed they were a Lurcher who protected me from an attack last night. I’m inclined to believe them right now, especially since no one else has come forward claiming to have been protected. It is odd they chose to protect me over themselves. However, I believe them when they say they thought I was a more likely target than them. This means the spiked attacked me last night. I’ve mentioned this to a few people in PMs, but I really have no clue who decided to attack me. I’m putting it in the thread now because I think it is information everyone should have. Especially since the Spiked already know. Time Bubbles As far as I can tell, there were two Cadmium and two Bendalloy bubbles in the Town Square. Everyone who stayed had three actions. Everyone who left, no matter where they went, only had the one they left with. There is nothing that happened with my actions that contradicts this. I don’t really know what we should do with this information. At least we know the Cadmium and Bendalloy burners have to be in the Town Square now, I think. Voting Due to the Cadmium bubbles and the fact that it seems many people who stayed in the Town Square chose to forgo sleep in favor of other actions, there probably aren’t many people who can vote. In fact, a small group of people could control the vote without most players having a say. (Of course, the Spiked might have just as little ability to vote as the rest of us.) Since there aren’t many people who can vote, and it’s so late in the cycle, and we have no real suspicions, I think it would be best to let this cycle be a no vote. I’ll view any vote now with suspicion unless there is a very good reason for it. As Alvron mentioned, we don’t need to worry about vote manipulation as long as no one votes. However, I think we should try to have more voting in future cycles. Voting is a major part of the game. Votes help us kill Eliminators and gives us important information about them. Hopefully in the future there will not be too many votes lost to Cadmium and lack of sleep.

Great job everyone. It really was close at the end. Especially excellent job to Gamma for pulling off the win! And thanks Alvron for running such an intense game so smoothly. It was a lot of fun. Alvron, when I click on the Watchers Lair doc, it says I don't have permission to access it.

This game looks wonderfully complex, and with so much new blood to spill, it should be quite interesting. I might not be very active for the first few cycles, but I really want to play. I'll sign up as Ella, the village baker.

I’ll vote for Tulir.

If you want a list post... Alive: Vin Yard Awg/Vya (Vineyarddawg) Tristal (Tuilr) Dow (Dowanx) Cleo and Kae (Winter Cloud) Keira (Little Wilson) Arall (Araris Valerian) Karlin (Surgebound Rainspren) Count Piffula (Lord Pifferdoo) Tammy Kingswright (A Smart Guy) Todd Smith (Twelfthrootoftwo) Figgldygrak (Gamma Fiend) Ferrin (Feligon) Lu (Luckat) Dead: Epics: Jain (Lightsworn Panda) Atreides Agamemnon (Ostrichofevil) Lil' Meester Fafa (Splinter) Keldre (KalaDellexe) Librarians: Malcom (Mailliw73) Eol (Eolhondras) New One the Toddler (Newan) Samhain (Seonid) Cosmere: Joe (The Only Joe) Ash (Ashiok) Naran (Aonar Faileas) The Shard (ShardbearerFanatic2014) Rithmatists: Ank (Clanky) Bortholemew (Bort) Honorable Sir Maestro Dr. Brightlord Seixa (Phattemer) Independent: Restless (Renegade)

Wilson. Newan

Wilson, your hub of information and manipulation of the players is beginning to scare me.

Clanky. Sorry.

I'll vote for Maill.