luckat

Thanks for posting. I'll retract my vote for Wandrin now. You're right that I didn't sooner because of sleep. I don't know if I should actually vote now. I might not have time to get back on later and keep up with arguments. I agree that Hadrian's plan is suspicious, but I'm inclined to give him a second chance because it is his first game and because it's really close to the end of the day and piling votes on someone now doesn't seem like a great idea. Also, I'd kind of expect skaa to be more careful than suggesting a plan like that, that really only looks good to the skaa and to Nobles that are trying to put their own house ahead. But maybe that's just me. Edit: Color

@Tonul Cadri voted for Mesist, not Fien, and a few of your vote totals haven't been updated. By the way, here is a list of the people that have current votes on them. Normally I prefer to look at all of the votes that have happened, but since it's day 1, that's a little hard to look at to see who is currently ahead in votes. Ashette (3): Ashette, Fien, Jain, Mailu Wandrin (2): Cat, Tonul Mesist (1): Tonul, Cadri Jain (1): Hyrun, Hadrian Jae (1): Mailu, Alden Hyrun (1): Mesist Also, it looks like New One is on the community index every half hour, on the dot, so I don't know what he's doing. He's posted elsewhere within the last day, but I don't know if he's looking at this game at all.

I agree with Kassel's analysis. I think that there is an outside possibility that Assumption 5 is incorrect and both of the original Great Houses that weren't changed have 5 members, partly because Wyrm said that Great Houses would have "about four" members while giving a fixed two for Lesser Houses. It seems much more likely that they have 4 members apiece though. But I did post. That leaves Wandrin as the last person who hasn't posted. He's been on a bunch all day, and his activity reminds me of how he was at the end of QF 2. I hope he posts soon.

Cat wasn’t really sure what to think about the idea that skaa had infiltrated the Houses. It seemed a bit bizarre that they could, but those thoughts were filled with politics, which Cat wasn’t that good at. Finding the skaa was something best left to the others. Meanwhile, she and Triss could just enjoy one another’s company in peace. Unfortunately, peace wasn’t easy to come by here. Already accusations were being thrown out from every corner of the ballroom. Cat huddled over Triss to protect her from them. It was irrational, since who would accuse a cat of being skaa, but it made her feel better, and it seemed to calm Triss down too. Most of the accusations didn’t even have reasons, as far as Cat could tell. She supposed that it made sense to the other nobles, but the whole scene seemed strange to her. A few whispers of her own name startled her. Not accusations, but nearly so. They wanted her speak up and help find the skaa. She didn't know how much help she could be, but maybe if she did help, she could get out of here sooner. Getting out was appealing. She set her mind to work, thinking about how she could get home as soon as possible. Sorry it took so long to post. I don’t really have much to say at this point except to agree that most of our conversations should be in the thread if we want to find the skaa. Also, we probably want to make sure a lynch goes through today so we can learn someone’s alignment, since night kills won’t tell us that. We have a while before we need to worry about that though. I suppose I’ll put a vote on Wandrin now, since he’s the last one who hasn’t posted yet and hasn’t been voted for. I’m sure it will change before the end of the day though. Really, I'm not surprised at who hasn't posted yet, and the fact that they haven't posted isn't making me suspicious of them. I do hope that they post soon though. Edit: color

I almost forgot to sign up. I hope I'm not too late. Sorry about coming in at the last-minute. A soft purr sounded from Triss as her mistress stroked her fur. Cat Lekal–everyone called her Cat because of the companions she brought everywhere–looked around from a secluded area of the room. There was quite a gathering at House Heron, full of unfamiliar, and rather unfriendly-looking, faces. She’d never been one for politics, and she never could keep track of who was who and what was what in Luthadel. Everything was part of some plot to the Nobles here, and Cat just did not have the patience for it. She stayed away from the city as much as she could get away with. She hadn’t been able to refuse the summons here this time. She rather suspected that the only reason she had been sent along by her family was that it was dangerous and she was disposable. They were always trying to think of ways to get rid of her. Cat whispered to Triss, “It’ll be okay here. Soon this meeting will be over, and we’ll be able to escape away to the country. We won’t have to worry about all of this plotting and planning.” She supposed the words were more to comfort herself than anything else.

Every time I think about our chances of winning, I die a little inside. So I do something else for a bit, then realize how little time is left. I would be really annoyed if the Mutineers did something like this. It’s just cruel to drag the game out without admitting it if they’ve already won. Here’s the thing about trying to change our votes now. We need all of the loyal players to change to the same person if we want to succeed. It can’t just be two people. Otherwise, the Mutineers could take advantage of the split vote and make last-minute votes for the captain. And if it turns out that Jatae is loyal, then changing who we lynch is impossible because I don’t think he’ll be back on this cycle. We need feedback from Riitii and Hreo if we want to try anything. Otherwise we need to just stick with the vote for Riingar. I have no idea who the best target for the hook is. Assuming the Mutineer kill cycles around, if there’s only two Mutineers left, then it can’t be Hreo’s turn, but there’s probably three Mutineers anyway, and I don’t even know if the Mutineer kill cycles around in an order. If Hreo is one of three Mutineers, then using the grappling hook on him now probably gives a 1 in 2 chance of stopping the kill. If he’s not a Mutineer, then it probably gives us less of a chance of getting the grappling hook back, if that even matters. I wish the grappling hook had been used more often so we could have more information about who is next in the kill cycle.

We're going to need a lot of luck if we want to win at this point. Obviously, all of Riingar's fellow Mutineers have voted for him by now. I doubt he'd have set this up unless he either has the buckler now or is another gunner. I don't think we have a chance unless we actually kill a Mutineer this cycle, but I don't know who it would be best to go after. I'll change my vote if it seems like we'll actually have a chance to kill someone I think is a Mutineer, but I don't know how likely it is that all of the loyal members will vote together in the little time that is remaining this cycle. I have the hook right now. I'll take suggestions on how to use it. Ideally, I'd hit the person who has the kill for the night. Using it on Riingar to make sure he doesn't have the buckler next cycle could work, but really only if he's not a gunner and we lynch a different Mutineer this cycle. We need to make sure the Mutineers don't get the hook. The Mutineers have to have at least one gunner, but I find myself trusting Jeno, who is the only proven gunner who's allegiance hasn't been revealed yet. If they have a gunner who hasn't been hit yet, then I don't know how we can win.

Right. I'd rather hear his answer, but I don't think he'll be back on before the cycle ends. I can think of a reason for him, though: Voting for a mutineer with a buckler is better than voting for someone I trust and letting the grappling hook decide, so I'll vote Jain.

I thought if be able to get on more today, but I was busy. Sorry. Throughout this game, I've been completely honest about my suspicions and actions. I've been doing most of my thinking in posts rather than in my private notes because of the condensed cycles, so they might not be very consistent or polished. I'm probably going to repeat a lot of what's already been said here. I really don't know what to believe at this point. Due to their helpful posts, I am most inclined to trust Wyrm and Riingar. However, I know from QF 2 MR 1 that both can be manipulative and could probably write posts that only seem helpful while doing a lot of planning for the evil team at the same time. So I don't know if I can trust either of them. They seem to be going against each other right now. Both have recently been a bit suspicious to me, but at this point everyone seems suspicious. I'd probably trust Wyrm over Riingar. However, I wonder if his most recent groups of three are a way to manipulate innocents in each group into voting for innocents in the other. The Mutineers might have used a WGG. I don't really think they'd do it twice though. I don't really like how Jeno is going about his reasoning. Wyrm and Jeno seem to be working together right now. Jain sounds like he's telling us to vote for him. I don't think he'd say he's not innocent unless he was a Mutineer, but who knows with him. However, I think it's most likely that he has the Buckler today and is trying to draw attention away from someone else or wants to split the vote. I don't know why Riingar seems to be falling for such obvious bait. I'm away from my notes right now, so I can't really analyze much. I'm pretty sure Jain is a Mutineer now, but I'm not so sure we should vote for him now. I want to look more at past votes for him, but I don't have time today. I'm still suspicious of Riitii, for the reasons that have been mentioned, but it looks like there's no one else trying to lynch him. He still hasn't voted yet. I'm still suspicious of Hreo, but no one else seems to be. It's his timing in revealing his use of the grappling hook that is suspicious more than its actual use. If he'd revealed this earlier, we would have had a better picture of whether to suspect Kal. Jatae seems to be acting mostly like I'd expect him to, but I don't know what side that means he is on. He's been flying under my radar, so I haven't analyzed much of what he's done. I still don't know who to vote for. I guess it depends on what else happens in the next hour or so. We can't let the Mutineers get the voting block.

Before anyone gets any ideas about analyzing how the grappling hook went, I'll just tell you. I had it, and since there wasn't much I could do with it to affect the vote, I used it on my top suspect (Hreo) on the off chance that he happened to be the killer this time. Obviously, he wasn't. He could still be a Mutineer, but now there's a little evidence that he's not. Now it seems we have 5 confirmed gunners (a full third of the original players), two of whom were definitely loyal. It is possible that there are even more gunners. I don't know how likely it would be that all of the rest of the gunners are loyal. If either Jeno or Wyrm aren't, then one of their attacks would have had to have been a WGG, which they probably wouldn't do if they could kill another person for a win. If there's 4 Mutineers, then I don't think we have a chance anymore. If there's 3, then we might be able to pull it off if we find one this cycle. I suppose there could be 2. If so, then they're probably both gunners. The list of kills that Riingar made makes it look like there's an even number of Mutineers, but they could be trying to make us think that.

This sounds like weird reasoning. If he's loyal and there's 4 mutineers total, then we probably lose if he is lynched because there will be 3 or 4 Loyals left (depending on if the mutineer kill goes through). If he's a mutineer gunner and there's 3 mutineers total, then we can afford one more mislynch, so we don't need to lynch him yet. Not lynching him has the most probability of not turning out bad if we're looking at it this way. I realize that a lot of how I have played looks like how a Mutineer would play. I don't know much of a defense it is, but this is my natural play style. I've known since the beginning that there are several reasons to be suspicious of me just based on how I play. I'm the type that doesn't attract a lot of attention. I don't think I've been playing much differently from how I have previously, other than possibly being more active than I was in the full games I played. There are several little things that I've done that I probably wouldn't do if I was a Mutineer, but they wouldn't make a good defense unless you knew me well. As for trying to direct suspicion, I haven't been trying to. I've just been putting down my thoughts. If that has directed suspicion, then I hope people aren't reading more into it that it being my opinion. I haven't suspected you because of suggesting that Jeno pulled a WGG. In fact, I was glad someone mentioned it because it is a possibility that shouldn't be overlooked. I don't think it happened, but I don't suspect you for bringing it up. I think you are suspicious mainly because your voting behavior on week two was suspicious (not just the last-minute vote thing, but also how much you jumped around before that) and because there were next to no suspicions of you raised in the following cycles. I thought it odd that so many people seemed to trust you so much for little reason and something just has seemed off about you. If you didn't want people to be led astray by the grappling hook week 2, then why are you mentioning it now when it is nearly irrelevant instead of earlier? The grappling hook was one of the largest pieces of evidence against Kal. Why were you so bent on lynching him after, when you knew that this piece of "evidence" was not due to the Mutineers' actions? Why did you try to grapple Mai to further save Jene instead of trying to grapple one of the people who voted for Wyrm when you did not suspect either? Honestly, what you say you tried to do looks like you were trying to cast suspicion on Jene, and the fact that you kept trying to kill Kal after cycle 2, as well as the posts in which you mentioned the grappling hook, makes it look like you were using the grappling hook as evidence against him. This bit of evidence just makes me suspect you more. I know that there is an argument of why would you mention this if it is suspicious, so you must be loyal, but I think too much doesn't add up. So right now I am putting in a vote for Hreo. This is subject to change, however, if it is necessary to keep the Mutineers from controlling the vote. I know that a lot of people have brought up that it is suspicious that I have voted for the person who was lynched so much. While this could be a way for Mutineers to hide, it is also a way to make sure that Mutineers don't change the vote at the last minute. (It doesn't look like they can change anything right now without last-minute votes though.) Current Vote Tally: Jene (3): Riitiidiikiiiir, Jeno, Wyrm Riitiidiikiiiir (1): Riingar Jain (1): Jatae Luka (1): Hreo Hreo (1): Jeno, Luka

About the status updates, while they have the potential to be abused, I don't think they were. The thing about secret messages worried me, but there weren't any secrets. I think it was just Jeno and me making a bigger deal of it than there was. I'm going to mention right here that I had the buckler yesterday, so there's no evidence against Jain for that reason. He definitely is a gunner, and the mutineers didn't know for sure that Mai didn't have the buckler last cycle. I got the buckler because I wanted to keep it away from the mutineers, and I didn't know at that time that Mai had been doing the same thing and was using it to pretend to be a gunner. I don't know why he decided to admit to his plan on a day when he didn't have a buckler, or why he thought that telling everyone that he was a gunner would make the mutineers more likely to attack him. I didn't mention that I had it yesterday because that would have told them that Mai didn't have it. I didn't mention it earlier today because I've been scatterbrained and trying to piece other things together, and I'm still not sure that casting extra suspicion on the only person who I know is innocent is the best idea. I know that admitting that I had the buckler casts a bunch more suspicion on me, but I think that holding that back will just give the innocent players inaccurate information, and I might as well give the information that I have now so others can use it while I'm gone for the next day. I'm not going to blame anyone if the vote turns against me. I know that I've been suspicious and made mistakes this game. If that does happen, I'm not going to be able to get on to argue for myself. So I'm just going to give a bunch of my thoughts for in case they're helpful and I don't get another chance. I really hope there are only three mutineers. I think that the use of the grappling hook on cycle 2 implies that the mutineers didn't mind if Jene died unless Hreo had it, so I think Jene is likely innocent. However, if the mutineers didn't have the hook, then that doesn't really tell us anything. I don't think the mutineers would pull a gambit on their gunner, so I think Jeno's innocent. That leaves Jain as the fourth gunner. I don't like using gunner numbers to prove innocence or guilt, but with Jain, I don't know what else to go on with him, and if he is innocent we aren't losing much if he dies. However, if he has the buckler this cycle, then he won't die, and that would be bad. I think Hreo's vote cycle 2 is only a little bit suspicious, but it is weird how everyone seems to have jumped on that as proof of his innocence. I haven't had time to analyze much that Matim has done. He doesn't really seem like a mutineer to me right now, but I'm not sure. Jatae hasn't done a lot to persuade me one way or the other. He's quiet enough that he might be focusing on helping the mutineers. Wyrm has said a lot of helpful stuff. If it was anyone else, I'd think he's said too much to have time to help the mutineers, but, well, Wyrm can talk a lot. Riitii's charts seem good, but they have a lot of potential to manipulate. Riingar has been helpful, but now it's getting to the point where I'm a bit suspicious because the mutineers haven't killed him yet, and I feel like a lot of people have been too quick to trust him. So right now I'd say my strongest suspicions are Jain, Hreo, and Riitii, but I'm not sure of any of them. I won't be able to get on later to change my vote. If there's four Mutineers, then we need nearly everyone who is loyal to vote together on a mutineer to outvote them. I don't know how likely that is when many of us probably have incorrect suspicions. I don't know whether the mutineers are more likely to be trying to save up for the axe for if the quartermaster dies before the game is over or trying for bucklers and grappling hooks now. Given how few grappling hooks have been used and the fact that loyal players have had the buckler at least three times, I'm inclined to think the former. That makes me wonder if they even had the grappling hook cycle 2. If they get the axe, then we're not likely to have a chance, but if enough of us who are loyal get grappling hooks and bucklers, we could probably stop some kills and perhaps even find out who is making them.

I just thought the way you mentioned it was a bit misleading. You opened with stating that I had voted for the lynch target more than anyone other than Riitii, but you never qualified that you were counting yourself as a lynch target during cycle 2's tie when Kal had more votes. While the sudden votes for you can be considered suspicious, that's not what you were talking about right there. The way I naturally thought about "lynch target" for that cycle was "person with the most votes". You might have been thinking about it differently, in which case I'm sorry for any confusion I have caused. It does make some sense to count both, but since later in your post you said that Matim had voted you that cycle instead of me, it looked like you hadn't been counting that anyway. I have been meaning to look at those last-minute votes more closely, but I ended up explaining my own part in them instead of looking at the others' actions right after it occurred, and then there were other things to figure out later. I agree that the sudden votes for you were suspicious, but since I know that I'm innocent and I was a huge part of them, they haven't been super high on my list of things to look at for suspects. (I know, that's probably the least-convincing argument ever.) Jeno's vote alone was not enough to make a difference unless someone else came on later (like I did), which they couldn't have seen coming. Also, I don't see why they would try super hard to get you lynched when there was already an innocent about to be lynched (and they didn't know he was a gunner yet), especially when they already have their own kill to use to get rid of the people they really want to get rid of. I wonder if Jeno and Jene backpedaling has anything to do with votes for you suddenly looking suspicious in general. That doesn't really say much about their loyalties one way or the other. I think that Hreo's votes look most like an innocent who happened to choose correctly to all appearances and so continued to follow through until it was discovered that he was actually wrong. Given that Kal was innocent, however, it is also possible that he was trying to force a vote through and didn't know about the grappling hook. I've been thinking more about the grappling hook, and I wonder if its use was less about canceling a vote and more about keeping Kai (Kasimir) from making an action. It is possible that they really wanted to get rid of him and wanted to make sure he didn't have a buckler the next day so they would actually get a hit in. I don't know if they believed his claim of being a gunner or not. Maybe they though he was doing what Mai claimed he had been doing with bucklers. Of course, that means that they were probably okay with Jene getting lynched, which would mean he was clean too, unless you want to propose that I tied the vote to save Jene because I knew what would happen with the grappling hook (if that's the case, why not just vote Kal?), which would require a lot of coordination, and I doubt the Mutineers could pull something like that off this game. Or the grappling hook was used by someone loyal who really suspected Kai. Or the grappling hook was used by the Mutineers to try to force a lynch to go through and it was just bad luck for them that last-minute stuff stopped it. Also, I've been looking more closely at the Status Updates, which is a part of the site that I've never paid much attention to. Theorymaker has made 6 updates since the game began. The one from this morning is probably the most suspicious. He said in one of them that he was loyal, but I didn't look far enough back to compare it to what he's said at the beginning of other games. There were some earlier ones (before this game started) where he and Aonar talked about game 6 in the comments (nothing too important, I don't think, but I wonder if we should check status comments more often).

Wyrm, I haven't had time to look at all of your analysis, but I noticed a couple of things that were slightly off. First, you said that I was one behind Riitii in the number of times I have voted for the lynch target. While this could be considered true if you count yourself as a lynch target for the second cycle since it was a tie, it was Kal who had the most votes on him. If you only count him as the lynch target, I've only voted for the lynch target three times, which is the same number of times that Hreo and Riingar have. Second, you said that Jeno, Jene and Matim voted for you during cycle 2. It was actually Jeno, Jene, and me. (So it is kind of weird that you missed that I voted for you then if you were counting yourself as a lynch target.) I don't know if this affects your analysis at all, I just wanted to point it out. Edit: and now I see that this has been mentioned. Matim's most recent status is: and it was posted about half an hour an hour and a half ago. Below it is a comment that Matim made on it: which was added a minute later. Of course, these could easily be changed without anyone knowing. Jeno, Matim, care to explain? Messages through status updates seems near to cheating to me. By the way, I'll be off much earlier than usual today and won't be back on until late in the cycle tomorrow, so I won't be very active during the next two cycles. Edit2: And now I see that Matim's status has changed again, with part of the comment being "(Really glad no one paid to Jeno)" Edit3: Umm, when I said that Matim's status was posted half an hour ago, I meant an hour and a half (from about when I first made this post).

I’m inclined to believe this explanation. Honestly, your actions seem a lot more like someone who sincerely believed that Kal was guilty than like someone who knew he was innocent and was trying to push blame onto him. I almost think that someone who knew that he was innocent would not vote for him during the last cycle so as to not seem as suspicious. Also, I think someone who knew he was innocent would be more prepared for the outcome and probably would have posted sooner. That's strange. It looks like the BBCode changed to HTML somehow. I'll leave your chart here so it's visible on this page. I decided to look back over Jain’s votes. Week 1: Kal, after Kal was the second to vote Aonar. Jain said that he didn’t like bandwagons and wanted to even up the votes, although it didn’t really even anything up. Week 2: Ratel, purely for RP. This was the same week that Ratel died. Week 3: Mai, because of the messages with Kai. Week 4: Kal, for no given reason. This was the first vote for Kal after the first attack on him. Week 5: Jene, although at first it was for Jeno because of the similarity in names. This time Jain said that he liked bandwagons. Also, votes for Jain: Week 1: Ratel for RP, Riitiidiikiiiir (later retracted) Weeks 2-3: None Week 4: Wyrm (mostly to get him to talk) Week 5: Wyrm, Riingar, and Riitiidiikiiiir, all because he has been confusing and unhelpful Normally, I would think that the fact that Jain was the only vote for Ratel the same cycle that Ratel died made it less likely that he was a Mutineer, but given how difficult it is to figure out what he is thinking, I’m not so sure. Overall, even if Jain is loyal, he’s not exactly helpful. He’s hard to really be suspicious of because he’s consistent, but that itself is suspicious. He’s the strongest suspicion I have right now, and it’s a bit late in the cycle to start anything new, so I’m voting for him now. Edit Current vote tally: Jain (4): Wyrm, Riingar, Riitiidiikiiiir, Luka Mai (2): Jeno, Jene, Matim Riitiidiikiiiir (2): Jatae, Mai Jene (1): Mai, Jain Jeno (1): Jain, Hreo Matim (0): Riitiidiikiiiir No vote: Jeno

Okay, I don’t really think that voting for someone just because they are a gunner is a good idea. It’s possible that assuming that one of the three gunners is a Mutineer is likely to go about as well as assuming that one of the three spanreed holders was a ghostblood went in game 5. We don’t know that there are no more gunners, and I wouldn’t expect any more to speak up at this point, no matter which side they are on. Also, just because there are no safe roles, it does not mean that there has to be a gunner that is a Mutineer. I wouldn’t put it past Meta tell us that there are no safe roles, but still give all of them to us. I’m not saying that I think the Mutineers don’t have a gunner. I’m just saying that the fact that someone is a gunner and the other gunners seem loyal shouldn’t be the strongest argument for voting for them. Even if we could know that one of the gunners we know about is a Mutineer, we’d basically be taking a fifty-fifty chance that we’re right when hopefully we can do better than that by analyzing everyone’s actions to this point. Analyzing votes seems like a good idea. That is a good point about Riitiidiikiiiir. It could be just as good to look at when he voted as who he voted for. Week 1, he was the last vote on Jene to keep the Mutineers from doing a last-minute captain vote, and he voted Jain earlier. Week 2, he followed Riingar’s vote for Kal and week 3, he led the vote for Kal. Week 4, he voted for Kal again after Jain did. Honestly, it looks more like he wanted Kal dead than like he was following the crowd.It could be helpful to look at all of the votes that have been placed on Kal, since he is the only person who has been lynched for whom we know his alliance. Week 1: Jain Week 2: Wyrm, Riingar, Riitiidiikiiiir, Kai, Hreo Week 3: Riitiidiikiiiir, Riingar, Luka, Hreo, Wyrm, Jeno, Jatae Week 4: Jain, Riitiidiikiiiir, Hreo, Jatae, Luka Two people voted for him three times: Riitiidiikiiiir and Hreo. Only one person ever retracted a vote for him: Wyrm. Edit: @Mai Thanks for clarifying whether Jeno could have been saved by the buckler. That's all I really wanted you to tell us. I agree that giving too much information could be a bad idea. @Riingar It is good to let others come to their own conclusions, but I hope that if you are confident in your suspicions you will share them later today for in case the Mutineers decide to kill you. You're in a position where I'm worried they might go after you.

Obviously it was Meta. Are you suggesting we should lynch him now? Obviously, I’m kidding. I just thought it was funny that you listed him. On a more serious note, why do you think the reason for the attack on you was due to your post about Mai? Why would they suddenly change whatever plans they had when there was about 1 hour left in the cycle on the off chance that it would cause us to think they way they want us to think about Mai, when as you pointed out it could go either way? Honestly, I’m surprised that they attacked you. Several people have expressed suspicion of you, and you’ve been relatively quiet this game, so you don’t really stand out as someone they would want to get rid of. The best reasons I can think of for them to attack you are either a gambit as has been brought up or they are running out of players that have been active this game that aren’t them so they wanted to throw us off. It is definitely interesting that you were apparently attacked with both the Grappling Hook and the Mutineer kill at once. I don’t quite know what to make of that. I would also like to know the details of when you have had the buckler and who else could have had it. However, I don’t know if giving all that information to the Mutineers is the best idea. No matter what, I’m pretty sure it is impossible that Jene had it the week he was attacked because that was the first cycle, before anyone had any items, and kills are done before items are received in the action order so a buckler can only be used the cycle after it is bid on. I guess what it would be best to know is if Mai had the buckler during cycle 3 after bidding for it during cycle 2, so we know if it is possible that Jeno had it (instead of being a gunner). This seems like a reasonable use for the Buckler. I imagine that if a Mutineer who wasn’t about to be lynched got one, then they might do something like that. Both the person with the buckler and the killer would have to weigh the costs and the benefits, and given how little they can communicate, it might fall through if just one person had the idea and tried to convince the other. The benefits are basically getting someone we are very likely to trust, unless we call them on it, and possibly implicating someone who would want to attack them. The costs would be losing a day of killing and losing the coins necessary for the bid. Depending on how much they want the axe or other items, they might not want to use those coins just to possibly get someone to be trusted. Would it be worth it, given the risk that it might fall through? I guess the question here is whether the person attacked (Jeno in this case) would be willing to probably lose out on his chance to get the axe for his team and whether he could convince the current killer to attack him. It doesn't seem the most likely, but it is a possibility. ​I don't know if this post even makes sense. I probably shouldn't be up this late. I'll try to figure out who I most suspect tomorrow. Oh yeah, and here's the current vote tally: Mai (2): Jeno, Jene Jene (1): Mai Jeno (1): Jain

This is a situation that I considered quite likely at first. However I later thought it more unlikely after considering his activity during cycle 2. In fact it is exactly what I was arguing against when I said: If I remember correctly, he wasn't even on after people started voting for him (and that's part of why I was reluctant to jump in and vote for him), and if he didn't even have time to post and vote, I don't think he had time to bid. It is possible that Kal is a Mutineer Gunner, but I'd think the Mutineers would have been more likely to let the votes stand if he was instead of throwing an incriminating hook, especially since it was almost a tie anyway. However, it is possible that whoever had the hook didn't know he was a Gunner yet because they were the last to get to receive PMs or something, in which case they would want to save him at the risk of making him look suspicious. It's also possible that a loyal crew member had the hook and just doesn't want to speak up, in which case most of the discussion about the hook is pointless. Either way, it looks like he's going to die this cycle unless someone changes votes last-minute. I'm just going to throw a vote on Kal FangShi now so that that doesn't happen, and because he's still the top of my suspect list even though I'm not certain of his guilt, and because I still need to vote for someone. The more I think about it, it really is possible that the Grappler didn't know that Kal was a Gunner or that they did want to protect his second life. I just hope he doesn't have the Buckler this time. Here's the most recent votes: Jene (0): Mai Riitiidiikiiiir (0): Wyrm, Matim Kal FengShi (5): Jain, Riitiidiikiiiir, Hreo, Jatae, Luka Mai (2): Jene, Jeno Luka (1): Mai, Matim Jain (1): Wyrm Hreo (1): Riingar Jatae (1): Matim No vote: Kal

I almost forgot, here’s the most recent list of who’s voted who. Jene (0): Mai Riitiidiikiiiir (0): Wyrm, Matim Kal FengShi (4): Jain, Riitiidiikiiiir, Hreo, Jatae Mai (1): Jene Luka (1): Mai, Matim Jain (1): Wyrm Hreo (1): Riingar Jatae (1): Matim No vote yet: Luka, Jeno, Kal So far, Kal is ahead by a large enough margin for the vote to go through, although I think Jatae implied he might change his vote later, and I’m still not convinced that Kal is a Mutineer. If there are a lot of last-minute vote shenanigans, though, things could change easily.

I totally wrote this whole in the time since you posted. ​Not really. I’m sorry I haven’t been very helpful this game. The combination of the short cycles and my being out of town at the beginning have made it difficult to catch up, and yesterday I ended up using the time I had for this game defending my actions the day before instead of adding anything useful. I’m going to try to comment on the current situation now, and hopefully I can add something useful. It appears that there was no grappling hook used during the last cycle. I see three possibilities concerning this: 1. No one had it. If no one bid on a grappling hook during week 2, then no one would have it. Whoever used it during week 2 couldn’t have bid on it during week 2, so if there wasn’t someone else bidding, then it might have stayed in storage. However, if anyone bid on it and lost, then this isn’t possible. 2. The person who had it forgot to use it. This doesn’t seem very likely, but it is possible if they thought they would get on later, especially since the most recent writeup went up slightly less than 24 hours after the one before it. 3. The person who had it didn’t use it on purpose. This seems the most likely to me. They might have cared more about keeping it from others than about using it themselves (for example, the Mutineers probably don’t want to risk someone blocking their group kill with the Grappling Hook, no matter how unlikely it is), and they might have wanted to gamble or try for a Buckler or the new Grappling Hook or something instead of using it when they wouldn’t affect the vote anyway. Kal obviously either survived because he is a Gunner, as he claimed, or because he had a Buckler. I think the former is more likely because he was inactive the day before. While he was on at some point during week 2, he neither voted nor posted, and he thought he would be able to get on later. So I suspect that if he was going to try to get a buckler that day, he would have expected to have time later when he could vote. Also, I don’t think he was on after most of the votes for him were cast, so I don’t think he knew that he would be in danger and need a buckler the next day. The more I look at the situation with Kal, the more it looks like a setup. I could see some Mutineers joining in on one of their own last cycle after the suspicious grappling hook, especially since he was a gunner. However, no one has really put up resistance to lynching Kal other than to point out that it is a bandwagon. I am reluctant to jump on the bandwagon right now, so I’ll hold off on voting for now and hope some better information comes up later. If it is a setup, then that makes me think that both Kal and Jene are innocent, unless whoever used the grappling hook on Kai was an innocent and was correct in distrusting Jene, and that leaves us to suspect only people who have been less suspicious. Whatever we do, we’ll need to make sure that we don’t leave enough room for the Mutineers to control the vote at the end of the cycle, and we need to make sure that someone actually dies. While it is good that we haven’t lost anyone to a mislynch yet, this is our fourth cycle and the only successful kills have been done by the Mutineers. If we keep this up, they will chip at us until we are all dead. Even if we lynch an innocent, at this point we need the information that comes with someone dying in order to learn the allegiance of the people who voted for them. Right now the people I am most suspicious of are Kal and Jeno. However, as I said above, Kal looks more and more like he is being set up. Jeno looks suspicious for similar reasons that I imagine I look suspicious—inactivity and poor reasoning—that are more likely related to real life stuff than game stuff. The people I probably trust the most now are Riingar, Riitiidiikiiiir, and Wyrm, mostly because they are promoting discussion and putting out their suspicions. I don’t know what it says that two of those three have led the vote against Kal twice (I believe Wyrm retracted before anyone else voted Kal during week 2, so he didn’t really lead the vote against him), although they seem to be trusted by most people. I also trust Mai a fair bit, although not quite as much, and I don’t really think Matim is acting like a Mutineer. Oh yeah, and Hreo has been pretty proactive in discussions, especially early on, and he, along with the Rii’s, has been one of the most consistent votes against Kal. That puts him in pretty good company at least. The other living players are Jene, Jatae, and Jain. Jain is difficult to analyze in general. Jatae hasn’t really said a lot and seems pretty passive. I don’t know whether that is because he is trying not to do anything too suspicious or if it is just his play style. Jene still seems a bit suspicious, but not overly so. By the way, I really hope that enough innocents are saving up for the axe. If the Mutineers get it, then we will have no chance. Depending on how many of the Mutineers are saving up for it, it will take quite a bit of luck for us to get it. Gambling seems like a poor way to get enough coins for it since it would take two wins for a one-day worth of increase in coins. I was going to try to write an RP post, but I really can't think of anything and I don't really have time.

Overall, most of the stuff here has more to do with the situation yesterday than the current one. So it isn’t necessarily the best for figuring out who is currently suspicious. It is just an explanation for how I voted yesterday in hopes that it will ease some of the suspicion currently on me. If you don’t care about reading a convoluted summary of my thoughts yesterday, you can skip to the last paragraph. I’ll explain my actions as best as I can now. I gave a rushed explanation when I voted, but I’ll try to expand it more now. Keep in mind that any logic or analysis that I used yesterday is likely to flawed since I was pressed for time and I had been out of town, so wasn’t in the best mindset for the game. When I looked over the posts yesterday, I noticed three people who had suspicion cast on them: Jene, Kal FangShi, and Wyrm. I didn’t have time to analyze the reasons behind the suspicion, and I didn’t realize how flimsy the one for Wyrm was. (How he was apparently using PMs doesn’t strike me as how the Mutineers would be using them this game. His name was brought up by more than just Jene, but the others apparently were just gut feelings or unexplained.) As it was, I didn’t see any reason to suspect any of those three over the others. What I did see was a two-way tie between Jene and Kal, with Wyrm trailing one behind them. It seemed late enough in the cycle that I didn’t think anyone else would vote after me (or that whoever had the grappling hook would be likely to change their action), especially since the people who were on at the time seemed pretty solid in their votes. I figured that if I left it at a two-way tie, then the grappling hook would be used by a Mutineer to save one of their own and leave the other person in the tie to be lynched. At that point, these were my general thoughts from what I remember. I obviously didn't have time to write them down like this yesterday. (I’m probably going to put scenarios I found less likely first and progress to the ones I found more likely. If that seems unintuitive, sorry): The grappling hook was either in the hands of someone loyal or a Mutineer. Since it can only be used the day it is received, it would almost certainly be put into use. 1. If someone loyal had it then they would either put it on someone they considered suspicious in hopes of blocking the Mutineer kill or protect whichever of the two people in the tie seemed less suspicious to them. 1a. If they were trying to block the Mutineer, then that would have no effect on the results. 1b. If they tried to protect whichever seemed less suspicious, then I didn’t see any reason to trust that they were right. 2. If a Mutineer had the grappling hook, then zero, one, or two people in the tie were Mutineers (Wyrm wasn’t part of the tie yet). 2a. If both Jene and Kal were Mutineers, then the Mutineer with the grappling hook would do nothing to the tie if the votes stood as they were. 2b. If both Jene and Kal were innocent, then the Mutineer would use the grappling hook to protect one of them, getting one of them lynched and casting extra suspicion on the other. 2c. If one was a Mutineer and the other was innocent, then the Mutineer would probably use the grappling hook to protect the Mutineer and cause a lynch or protect from a last-minute vote change. This would cast suspicion on whichever of the two was a Mutineer, but was probably safer than just throwing the grappling hook out at random. Based on this, I thought that it was most likely that the grappling hook would be used to protect either Jene or Kal, which would leave the other, likely innocent, one to be lynched. I say a few options for myself. 1. Avoid the issue and vote for someone random to get the coin. 1a. This seemed like a bad idea because it would make it likely that the innocent one of Jene or Kal would be lynched. It gave complete control to whoever had the grappling hook, which I thought might be a Mutineer. 2. Vote for either Jene or Kal. Be the deciding vote in a tie when I didn’t have any reason to suspect one over the other. 2a. If I chose correctly, then the grappling hook would make the result a tie. This would save the loyal player, but would not make a lynch on the Mutineer go through. However, I didn’t much like this option because it was just as likely that I would choose incorrectly. 2b. If I chose incorrectly, then I would only be playing into the Mutineers’ hands by making a lynch for an innocent go through. 3. Vote for Wyrm to make the tie unbreakable unless someone voted after me. 3a. I thought that Wyrm was suspicious, mostly because I had seen that others did, so I figured a vote for Wyrm would at least be better than a random one. (I’m sorry about that. Now that I’ve examined the suspicions more carefully, I think that those suspicions are unfounded.) 3b. If I voted for Wyrm, I wouldn’t have to pick one person as more suspicious to break the tie and risk getting an innocent lynched. 3c. Voting for Wyrm was an opportunity to take control from whoever had the grappling hook. It made a three-way tie, so if the grappling hook was used on either Jene or Kal, we would know who was being protected without having to lose the other one. The tie could only be broken by someone voting even later than I did. Based on all of this, I decided that voting for Wyrm was the best of my three options. It took control of the vote from whoever had the grappling hook, it potentially protected an innocent, and it kept votes on the people who seemed the most suspicious. Of course, my reasoning falls apart with Hreo’s last-minute vote change. I didn’t see it in time to change anything. If he had posted ten minutes earlier, I would have had a different situation to analyze and I probably would have acted differently. In general, I’m not a big fan of last-minute vote changes, especially ones that could change the outcome significantly. I tend to consider it suspicious. I’ve only been voting last-minute this game because of real life stuff (and my votes have been for someone without any votes and to defend against grappling hook shenanigans, respectively, not to cause a sudden lynch), and I won’t anymore if I can help it. Since Hreo changed his vote to the person who was protected by the grappling hook, however, I don’t suspect him for it (especially since the Mutineers can’t coordinate much: if he and Kal were both Mutineers, then he would have had to have known who had the grappling hook and who it would be used on to cast the vote he did). I realize that how I voted seems suspicious, and I realized yesterday that, depending on how the vote turned out, what I did could seem suspicious, especially since forcing ties and voting last-minute usually seems suspicious. However, It was what I considered the best option at the time. I would like to add that if I was a Mutineer, then I would not have forced a tie when I could just as easily have forced a mislynch without casting suspicion on myself. Given how the grappling hook went, I now see the most reason to suspect Kal FangShi, so I’m voting for him now. It’s not a sure thing that he was being protected by it, but it seems probable.

First off, I’m sorry for my inactivity. I’m back home now, so I should start being more active now. I once again haven’t had much time to look at stuff, and I definitely don’t have time for RP right now. Here’s an updated list of votes, as far as I can tell (I really hope I didn’t make any mistakes): Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo Kal FangShi (3): Riingar, New One, Kai Wyrm (2): Jene, Jeno Ratel (1): Jain Mai (1): Ratel Luka (1): Jatae New One (?): Matim? Kai (?): Matim? (I didn’t see a retraction for New One, but I could have missed it) It looks like there is a tie between Jene and Kal FangShi. That means that there is a tie between Jene and Kal FS. So whoever has a grappling hook can decide the vote. If a Mutineer has it then I think that gives too much power to them, and if a regular has it then I'm not sure I really trust their judgement. However, I don’t really like being in the position of being the tie-breaker. If I cast a vote for Wyrm, then that makes it a three-way tie, which the grappling hook cannot break. (I really hope I'm not making a big mistake.)

Luka hadn't meant to fall asleep, honest, she just had been really tired after her last few adventures. She was a bit disoriented at the crazy accusations all around her. Someone had even accused her! How was she supposed to be planning mutiny while she was asleep? I'm sorry I haven't been active. I've been having internet issues, and I'm on my phone. I did say that I might not be on for the first day or so. I'm probably also not going to be very active tomorrow, but after that I should be. I haven't had time to analyze anything yet, and don't really want to try for a tie or anything, so I'll just vote for Mai to get the coin since he doesn't have a vote on him.

If the game’s not starting until the 5th, then I’ll join. It’s not very likely that I’ll be on again until Sunday or Monday. It would be too hard to catch up with the original start date even if I managed to not get kicked out due to inactivity, but if it’s pushed back to the 5th, then there probably won’t be too much to catch up on once I have time. Luka left Duladel in hopes of a grand adventure, after years of being not quite content with how little anyone else around her wanted to do beyond farming. Sure, raising plants was important and all, but it wasn’t what anyone would consider exciting. Kolo? Adventures turned out to be not quite what Luka had bargained for. She enjoyed them well enough, but she rarely got got far in doing one thing before deciding that maybe something else would be more fun. A long series of trying new things eventually landed her as a member of the crew of AonTeo. The life of a pirate seemed a great adventure, and hopefully it would be an easy way to get some gold. All of her adventuring hadn’t exactly been kind to her pockets. Kolo?

Yep! She's probably royal, because she's Denth's sister (and he has the Royal Locks), and that battle and Vasher's reaction were pretty terrible.