coolsnow7

If anything it suggests the opposite - that Kaladin will lose his title (arguably he already did, no longer a leader in the army) as will Jasna (the crown) and Dalinar (the Tower, representing leadership of the Knights Radiant at Urithiru). The better question is who would be a plausible candidate for any of that? Personally I can’t think of any answers. But the placement of “the spear” hardly suggests that Kaladin is about to pick up new titles.

I’ve been toying with this idea internally but I haven’t spent too much time on it because I find it kinda boring. But given the very clear foreshadowing of the structural health of Roshar being at risk in this book, time to put it on paper. Can Odium be bound to Roshar if Roshar is destroyed? I recognize that Odium is technically bound to the Rosharan system, not Roshar the planet itself. Let’s leave that aside for now - either assume that Odium is bound to the planet itself, or that in the (presumably upcoming) ecological disaster Braize and Ashlyn get destroyed too. Would whatever restrictions Honor placed on Odium hold if the place that they were tied to no longer exists? Why I think this line has potential is that it fits the bill of a) something Wit wouldn’t have thought of, because he expected Rayse to try to win the contest outright; b) something that would require knowledge of Shardic mechanics to know how to parse; c) something that Taravangian can arrange: he can pick a champion such that, if Dalinar kills them, Roshar collapses. Some evidence: Deathrattles: we have Deathrattles building up to ecological disaster centering around stone and storms. In particular stone: Storms: Dalinar’s visions: in Oathbringer ch. 109, we have a very peculiar reaction from Odium when Dalinar brings Venli into a vision: he proceeds to dismantle the city Dalinar and Venli are in - namely Alethkar - and then dismantles the stones that comprise the ground itself. Only a single cliff where Dalinar was standing remained intact. Now you might say, that has nothing to do with Odium’s intentions - it’s just how he dismantles visions. And yet, we’ve seen this before: this was Honor’s parting vision to Dalinar - down to first destroying the Windblades of Alethkar. And it’s interesting to note what Odium tells Dalinar: Converging themes and foreshadowing: Wind and Truth has several themes that have been building up that we know are connected: - we know that the Recreance was a decision made by Radiants and Spren to save the world from destruction. - the RoW epigraphs from Kelek told us that the capture of BAM did damage to Roshar the planet and continues to do so. - we know that the Shin worship stone in a way that makes no sense to us now, and that we’re going to find out what that’s about in this book. - we also have more than a few indications that Rosharan stone is unusual and seems to be alive in some way: we have a specific stone shaping surge independent from soulcasting, we have the curious episode of Ishar transferring human Connection to stone, and we have Dalinar hearing the stone maintain ideas about its “rightful” configuration as a statue. It makes sense for these to come together climactically in some way at the Contest of Champions. So to offer a specific prediction (with very loose conviction) on how this will play out: TOdium will introduce a Champion whose death would entail the destruction of Roshar itself (via bonds between stone dissolving somehow). Dalinar will be faced with a dilemma: either cede the Contest of Champions, with all that entails, or win and destroy Roshar, freeing Odium (and likely relegating humans to Braize.) Unclear which Dalinar will choose; there are death rattles supporting either one. Anyway, like all theories around the contract loophole, this is quite speculative and I have low conviction that it’s right. But I think it makes more sense than just about any of the other theories out there. (PS to mods: I’m not sure if this is the right forum for this thread; feel free to move it if I’m wrong!)

I’m 90% sure that BAM was the ancient god of either Spren or Stone. And I lean towards Stone because of all the buildup towards BAM, Shinovar stone shammanate, possible existential threat to the planet Roshar which is almost entirely made of stone, and the Recreance all converging to the same book. And then that leaves room for Sja Anat to be the ancient god of Spren. Important to note that right before the capture of BAM, one of the gemstones in the archive said “Honor is changing” (and it didn’t sound like it was in a good way.) Point being, if we’re interpreting Maya correctly that Honor died before the actual Recreance, and the Radiants knew with basic certainty that Honor was alive right before it, strong case to be made that the capture of BAM was the killing blow to Honor just based on the timing alone. And here I’ll note that Kelek said that they betrayed BAM, which is consistent with theories that to kill a Shard you have to force them to go against their Shardic intent in some way. And I was just looking at the death rattles for unrelated reasons and found:

My guess: - we have Deathrattles about an “eternal storm” or something like that - we have the Weeping, which is just bizarre - and fits the bill of “a storm with no wind” on some level - the Wind mentions to Kaladin that that’s what she’s afraid of, and we haven’t heard much else about this otherwise - even though the Deathrattles imply that it’s a very important component of the (ostensible) loss to Odium So my guess is the wind actually disappears, the Highstorms get turned into endless Weeping, the only storm in town is the Everstorm, and this all matters for reason we’ll begin understanding when we get through the book.

I don’t like this “Kaladin talking to the wind” business so far. There are more than enough mysterious beings communicating with people on Roshar already, we really don’t need another. In fact it’s already too reminiscent of the Sibling doing similar business last time.

The one thing missing is why she doesn’t have a tattoo/why she needs to be reinitiated. And it’s a pretty big hole. I personally like the “Shallan is Chana” theory in which case a) the first decade of her life being a sham fits (because her whole Shallan persona is made up) and b) she had plenty of time to learn all the spying that Veil knows. And c) her joining the Ghostbloods can work too. But with Shallan just being Shallan, it’s harder to make work.

Shallan bonded a Cryptic. This is also simple: Chana had a child named Shallan, killed Shallan, and took here place. That, by the way, would be something to feel guilt for, as opposed to killing her mother in self-defense - who happens to be the key to the Oathpact and oops now Roshar is existentially threatened (please ignore Kelsier saying “sometimes I think none of what we did made this any more or less likely to occur” to Dalinar which blows that theory up.) Counterpoint: she wouldn’t. Who’s right? No one, because we know nothing about the mechanics of such a thing. For all we know, Chana did some extra super duper illusion making magic that prevents her from feeling it. Or, her personas blocked her from feeling it or remembering feeling it. There are a lot of plausible options here, and you’re making an assumption about mechanics that is unwarranted. I don’t think Nale would forget to send another one Then why are they re-initiating her instead of saying “you’re already a member”? How did she manage to get so much training by age 10 or so? Why doesn’t she have a tattoo? If you say “she illusions away her tattoo” well then we’re already in the territory of her perpetually maintaining a Shallan illusion. I want to reiterate that the “Chana was Shallan’s mom and Shallan is just Shallan” theory fits badly thematically and doesn’t explain a number of difficulties OP raised (for example, why is Hoid so supportive of her - and only ever her? By contrast we see Hoid’s affection towards the Heralds in how he deals with Taln.) There’s no Occam’s Razor theory in terms of the plot or mechanics - we can poke holes (or make assumptions about mechanics and then poke holes) forever until the book comes out and Brandon elucidates the relevant mechanics. But thematically, Shallan feeling like a totally worthless person for killing her mother in self-defense and accidentally playing a role in the Final Desolation is… frankly silly and shallow. Contrast with Dalinar, who committed actual, blameworthy atrocities. Or Kaladin who struggles with suicide. Or Szeth who, in his attempt to be honorable, became a one-man death squad. Or Venli who knowingly led her people back to Odium because she was jealous of her sister. By contrast, Chana being so overwhelmed by the torture and madness that she kills her own daughter to hide herself - from herself! - in her persona - now THAT’S a revelation worth building towards. Two final points of evidence to add: 1) this theory explains what Radiant represents much much better: Radiant is the version of Chana that she hides from, all the good parts of her personality that made her a Herald candidate in the first place. In “Shallan kills her mother Chana”, what purpose does Radiant serve? In general I find “Shallan killed her mother” theorists completely neglect Radiant’s lack of role in their theories. 2) It’s clear that Ash, while the Herald of the Lightweavers, is going to become the book-length representative of the Dustbringers. It would be neat symmetry for Chana similarly to do this kind of “order swap”.

I think this is more likely to be correct than “Shallan’s mom is Chana” theory. I’ll say up front I don’t know how the mechanics will work. But there’s a whole book for those to be worked out. If I’m going to choose between a theory that works thematically vs. a theory that works mechanically, I will choose the theory that works thematically 100% of the time - and Shallan’s mother being Chana does NOT work thematically AT ALL.

This is almost certainly wrong. Consider the two things we know about the Radiant structure: 1) we know that Surgebinding is considered insanely powerful and dangerous. Literally nothing we’ve seen has even hinted at extreme power and danger from Surgebinding. (No, the stuff with Ishar transferring relationships is not “this will destroy a planet” dangerous.) 2) we know that the purpose of the Radiant structure - different orders with access to specific surges, and more importantly, oaths gating which surges you have access to - is to prevent access to that insane power except for those who can be trusted to wield it for the right reasons. That’s it - that’s what the oaths are for in the first place. It’s pretty clear that the 5th ideal grants some crazy powers. Whether any/all of the orders will be able to destroy planets with these powers, maybe not. But it’s going to be serious business. Not “you’re swearing this 5th ideal because you’re just such a sweet guy, service is its own reward.”

I haven’t seen much speculation about what the non-allegorical meaning (I know Hoid, I know, stories don’t have meanings, art is just for its own sake blah blah blah) of the “dog who wanted to become a dragon” story is. My best guess is that this is about Hoid himself in the present day. He’s trying to assemble all of these powers that emerge from divinities. He realizes that they won’t make him a “dragon” (God) - that’s fine, he will settle for “good enough to save the farmer’s son” (the Cosmere). If this theory is correct, where does that leave us? Well, that he wants to lead humanity and/or all sentient life throughout the Cosmere - not by being omnipotent but by having everyone’s support.

My guess: - Sazed syphons off the “excess Ruin” into an avatar - namely Marsh - Marsh is chosen for a lot of reasons, but an important one being that he has exceptional ability to resist Ruin’s control - humanity is locked in a treadmill where Marsh seeks to destroy them, and they have to devise technological solutions to protect themselves - after which, Marsh recedes for some time but then comes back stronger - Kelsier’s mission in Ghostbloods is to find a way to reach stability and break the cycle, particularly by obviating the need for an outlet for excess Ruin at all Why do I think this? The key is Sazed and Kelsier’s observations about the speed of technological progress. To go any faster while doing things the “right” way like Sazed wants, it would have to be in response to some challenge, rather than just Sazed handing over knowledge. We know Discord will happen, and we know Kelsier is worried about needing to protect Scadrial from Sazed. And of course Sazed responds “that depends entirely on you” - in other words, it’s up to Kelsier to devise a solution to Discord’s destructive tendencies. Finally we know that by TSM, Scadrial is ahead technologically, whereas they’re starting off quite far behind - Marsh is how they start accelerating at a faster pace than anyone else.

I feel like there are many, many options in between “dead” and “Worldhopper” that we can’t possibly entertain until we know more.

Yes it is true that if you assume your conclusion - namely, that the intent of the Change Dawnshard is actually Cultivate, and that the intent of the Connect Dawnshard is actually Honor - then it will be hard to fit other Shards into a 4x4 format with Dawnshards. An exercise for the reader as to whether this says more about the 4x4 format, or the evidence adduced for this theory.

I absolutely love your post as a whole. Problem I have with El as champion is all this buildup to “who would you choose as your champion if you were me?” Maybe we’ll understand more about El and why Rayse wasn’t willing to bring him back whereas Taravangian did, but right now the setup is all but explicitly that Todium’s choice of champion is the loophole, is not what Rayse would have done, and is very counterintuitive.

As we all know, the intent of a shard is subject to the interpretation of the bearer. So while the intent we got for Honor + Odium was War, some adjacent concepts might work as well. Let’s review some facts about Szeth: - he really is devoted to Dalinar and would feel quite lost without him - he is at the edge of sanity - Taravangian continues to manipulate him and he’s not a fan - in fact successfully exploiting him to ascend to divinity - Brandon seems to be foreshadowing (heavily) that Taravangian’s manipulation of Szeth is coming to a head. Especially now that Taravangian is Odium, I expect this to be a major issue in book 5. Why do I bring Szeth up? Because I think a natural alternative to War is Vengeance. I’m not sure exactly how it would work, but I could see Book 5 ending with some kind of Shardic Intent shuffling, whereby Taravangian kills Dalinar, gets (the heretofore unspecified) combination of Cultivation and Odium, someone else (Navani?) gets Honor + Cultivation, and Szeth ascends to become Vengeance - setting him up to hunt Taravangian down across the Cosmere in Revenge for what he did to Dalinar. (Another alternative is that this is the spin Szeth puts on the Honor shard. I’m not in a position to ask Brandon questions for WoBs, but if someone out there is, I strongly recommend asking whether Vengeance would be an intent more suited to Honor+Odium or Honor alone - if he RAFOs then we know we’re on to something.)

The question we’ve all been more or less obsessed with since 2020 has been: what sort of loophole can TOdium cook up to weasel his way out of the contest? I want to say off the bat that “force a tie” is a ludicrous suggestion and if Brandon goes this route I will be ludicrously disappointed. Hoid literally highlights this trick as he’s trying to write up the agreement - how exactly would he manage to overlook it? This clearly is not the loophole; we need to be more creative. Dalinar’s legitimacy It’s important to note that a key clause in the agreement is that Dalinar undertakes it as a representative of humanity: Dalinar’s position as representative of humanity rests on his leadership of the coalition, which in turn rests on his role as de facto king of Alethkar. But Dalinar actually has no legitimacy to rule Alethkar; (speculating only slightly) if Jasnah withdrew Alethkar from the coalition and ordered Dalinar to resign from it as well, at a minimum Dalinar could no longer claim to represent humanity in his negotiations with Odium. But let’s recall, Jasnah doesn’t have much legitimacy either. She’s a woman and is not meant to be in line to the throne - she only has it because Gavinor is too young. Well, what if Gavinor sides with Odium? Even if Gavinor doesn’t serve as Odium’s champion, Gavinor can claim that he was unfairly held from assuming the role of king, order Jasnah and Dalinar to withdraw from the coalition, and likely undermine Dalinar’s ability to negotiate with Odium at all. If he does serve as champion, then Dalinar winning would almost certainly destroy the coalition: everyone - Alethi population, Emuli and Thaylen leaders, everyone - would see Dalinar as ruthlessly trying to seize the throne from Gavinor by killing him under the pretext of this “contest of champions”, and consequently collapse Dalinar’s ability to represent humanity at all. Heads Odium wins the contest, tails the contest is void. There’s obviously a fair bit of speculation here, but at a minimum I think it represents the sort of direction we should take our theorizing for the next 8 months. (The other perhaps clearer option is that Dalinar holds “the remnants of Honor’s power” - unclear if he can negotiate if he no longer does. Odium may try to find a champion that threatens either the Stormfather or the bond…)

These are good points, but some of them are off the mark IMO. - Thematically I agree Pailaiah working at the hospital fits. But what is the payoff of Taravangian being wrong? “Haha! Actually Dova isn’t one Herald you’ve never met and have no flashbacks of, it’s a totally different one!” At this point we can safely presume that Taravangian has her identity right. - If anything, Aesudan working with Gavilar is further support - as you note Kalak is working with him too! So you can say “well his motivations were different” but we don’t know her’s in the first place, except for taking what she says at face value. - that said it is true that she comes off as a petty villain more than a significant force. We still don’t know anything about her, and given the emphasis put on her in the plot, I expect we will. In fact, she reminds me a lot of Gavilar himself. Could be that seeking her out was just Elhokar’s way of trying to live up to his father’s expectations, could be that Gavilar chose her for him like he’s trying with Jasnah, who knows. I think that if/when Gavilar himself plays more of a role in either Book 5 or back half, we’ll learn a lot more about Aesudan as well. - I’m not sure how much weight to put on Odium saying she’s dead. I lean towards “he probably wouldn’t lie” along with you. But it’s not a crazy possibility to suggest that he doesn’t want them to know she survived (or that she’s a Herald). Bottom line, I say: when we find out more about Gavilar we will learn more about her as his counterpart in some ways. But the one thing we can be sure of is that Brandon set her up as both the opposite of the Ardentia and as their corruptor.

Let’s be real: none of this is dispositive. None of this is even close to strong evidence. And a point against is that it’s a bit weird for Heralds to integrate themselves into Alethi elite circles that heavily - at some point someone has to be like “so… who are your parents?” Not impossible to work around, but it’s a point against. All that said, I like this theory a lot. Right now we simply have no clue what Aesudan’s deal was in any way. Hell for all we know she survived her interaction with Yelig-Nar. It’s clear that whatever it is she’s doing, it’s the exact pathological opposite of what the Ardents are all about, and the Ardents seem to be in the mold of Pailaiah. Indeed, the chapter in WoR suggests that she thoroughly corrupted the Ardents; maybe they were in decline over time, but at a minimum she clearly sealed the deal in a significant way. Ironically the fact that there’s no dispositive evidence makes me like the theory more. Brandon tries to keep some secrets close to the chest, and given the giant void around Aesudan, this seems like that’s what’s happening.

KoWT prologue is literally called “To Live” lol.

I’ve been playing with this idea. I think there’s something to it. Gavilar would need to be alive, which is not impossible but not obvious from the prologue. (At the same time, Brandon has hinted pretty heavily towards that in the prologues…) Anyway he’d need to have been heavily invested at his death. Not impossible but not obvious how. Secondly it’s not clear how having Gavilar as the champion helps Odium achieve his goals. It’s clear to approximately everyone that Dalinar is the better fighter. Again not impossible - we don’t know anything (and all the theories around it are junk) about how Odium plans to win - but not obvious yet. Bottom line I’m starting to think this is correct just because the foreshadowing is so goddamn heavy. But what it means in terms of the rest of the story, I got nothing. It’s kind of a meaningless piece of the puzzle right now. Have we read the same prologues?

IIRC Thaidakar is explicitly interested in democratizing Invested abilities among Scadrians so that they can keep up in the arms race. So perhaps what he’s looking into is to be a Scadrian Unmade.

It’s possible but extremely uninteresting. We didn’t need a Deathrattle for that. If book 5 is just “Odium get Dalinar to lose via a perfectly conventional fight, and then gets him to break the agreement by having him kill a child”, aside from not fitting other pieces (the Deathrattle itself refers to “give us further breath to draw” - who’s “us” if Dalinar is already protected in the agreement?) would just make for an extremely boring book. It’s also not consistent with Hoid needing an expert on intershardal law, which we know from a pre-read. And it’s this reason that I think any theorizing about the precise mechanics of how Odium wiggles his way out of this is a waste of time (since we certainly are not experts on intershardal law).

I cannot emphasize enough how much I agree with this. Is it still possible that this theory winds up being true? Yeah maybe, though I’m not convinced. Would I be disappointed if it is? Massive understatement. It would just be such weak writing on Brandon’s part (which is one of the main reasons, though certainly not the only one, I’m not convinced by the theory.) Anyway there were a lot of very popular theories before RoW that turned out to be total gibberish in the book, and I’m looking forward to a lot of nonsense getting deflated in 11 months.

Given the Jasnah excerpt, the place to look for the loophole is the mechanics of this Contest of Champions in Shard terms. Moreover, the foreshadowing has made it pretty explicit that “even if Odium loses, he wins” - in other words, we should be thinking about an Odium loss that frees him from the system via Shard/oath mechanics. One option is for him to lose, then be able to break the deal in such a way that he’s not vulnerable to Cultivation - either because Cultivation is no longer against him, or because of other mechanics yet to be revealed.

Forget all the good reasons alder24 raises for why this theory is bad - the starting premise is just terrible. Honor is supposed to intervene in the Oathpact and if he doesn’t he’s evil? What? Why would anyone just naturally assume that he can intervene, much less that the shard of Honor would want to intervene to modify the outcome of an oath?