That thread title makes this sound more confident than I actually am, so sorry for the clickbait. My prediction is based on the following:
1) the fact that we’re dealing with T and not Rayse anymore. Rayse would try to win the “conventional” way, because winning the sneaky underhanded way wouldn’t “prove a point” as Wit said. But T is not so limited; he would see that the best way to beat Dalinar isn’t to find a better fighter than Dalinar, but to use Dalinar against himself. And what better way to do that than to force Dalinar to either lose, or kill the person in the world he feels the most responsible for? And a child no less. This much I am confident about: T is not going to use a conventional champion; he’s going to try to turn Dalinar against himself.
2) the deathrattles:
And
We still don’t know what these refer to, in contrast with a whole bunch of other deathrattles. I think that the first one has to refer to some pivotal/climactic moment of this arc given the way it’s written. And the second one hints what I strongly suspect for narrative reasons: TOdium wins, Dalinar loses, and we set the stage of books 6-10 investigating the nature of oaths and how to safely free Dalinar from the consequences here.
What ties them together in my opinion is this choice: to kill the “suckling child” or to choose life. “The night will reign” in my reading refers to reigning across the Cosmere, rather than on Roshar specifically.
3) well I kind of specified this already: narratively it just makes sense. We know that books 6-10 focus on the Heralds, and in my reading Dalinar becomes a Cognitive Shadow just like them. The Heralds want to get out of their oathbound existence, as would Dalinar. And it just fits well for us to have a temporary resolution at the end of books 1-5 without a full resolution that would make books 6-10 disconnected.
Reasons for skepticism:
a) I mean, I hope I’m wrong. It would be extremely depressing for Dalinar to be consigned to this fate, even for just 10 years. And to wait something on the order of that long in real life until Brandon even begins showing us how he’ll be rescued in books 6-10 is gonna be brutal.
trying to use the deathrattles to support a prediction is extremely dicey, especially when there’s a whole book 5 worth of material that we still don’t know about.
c) How would Gavinor be a “willing” champion? Dalinar in RoW ch. 112:
To answer this specific point, Gavinor seems like a pretty traumatized kid. It’s plausible to me that if offered the “gift of silence”, like Moash got, that he would take it.
Is this a stretch? Very much so. But that’s better than the prediction that, say, Adolin would be willing to be TOdium’s champion, which is just ridiculous.
Anyway I’m putting this out there both to be able to claim credit on the off chance that I’m right, and to pressure-test the prediction, so fire away!