coolsnow7

What sparked my thinking was the following: Hmm... sounds familiar, but not something we’ve heard about Rayse... Contrast that with what we see Rayse doing constantly: sacrificing the optimal strategy - and his stability with the Shardic power - for victories that, as Wit says, “mean something”. If Taravangian saw in the Diagram that Odium was always going to win because of his craftiness and ruthlessness, he wasn’t seeing Rayse as holding Odium! One last point on this subject: we’re constantly confronted with the Diagram being wrong. Every time Rayse tried to make an important move, he - and the Diagram predictions - fail. As Dalinar points out: this is not a source of truth that I would put much stock in! If I were Taravangian I would have ditched the Diagram if I thought that that’s the big bad villain it was warning me about. I would only keep relying on the Diagram if there was a much deeper understanding embedded within it - one which presented Odium held by Taravangian the ruthless, cunning, brilliant manipulator, rather than the (frankly) quite hapless wannabe-show off Rayse. The interesting implication here is that the fatalism that drove Taravangian was actually not his understanding of Rayse, but his understanding of his future self - a self that existed after Cultivation’s plans to have him hold the Odium shard were already complete. In other words the Diagram is really about TOdium’s destructiveness, which Cultivation clearly did not foresee (or she wouldn’t have arranged events this way in the first place.) This leads me to the whacky speculation that TOdium, not Cultivation, was the instigator of Taravangian’s Connection to the Spiritual Realm which brought about the Diagram. Even whackier and/or more speculative: Dalinar the Fused Connected him.

This is a good WoB re: our discussion. Clearly I’m in the “misunderstanding Kelsier” group. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/455/#e14601

I am saying that in order for this perspective to make sense, we need more information. Either El is wrong/lying and he was stripped of rhythms and title for other reasons, OR suggesting that humans be conquered rather than exterminated has more significance than we think. Everyone’s focused on a draw, as of yesterday I think the real answer is that TOdium wants to force the humans to tear up the contract. Given the foreshadowing of “the health of the planet” or whatever that’s been going on through Rhythm of War; and given El’s unique relationship with the rhythms; I’m pretty confident that if El is T’s champion, it’s because he can threaten the planet even if he loses. This

Sure but there’s a difference between “doesn’t like him much for personal reasons” and “convinces Jasnah that his decentralized organization poses an existential threat to the Cosmere.” Your points about the trust in the crew are stronger I think.

That’s a) just El’s perspective and b ) a very narrow explanation. Kind of like saying “WWI started because the Archduke Ferdinand got shot”. Technically true, but doesn’t tell the whole story. It’s not obvious to me why merely suggesting the humans be conquered rather than destroyed would warrant such a severe punishment, especially when it also means sidelining an incredibly powerful Fused (he makes Lezian look like a joke in the final scene.) And to reiterate: that was just his perspective. We’ve seen Cosmere characters report false information before. To the extent that we know anything, we know this, insofar as the “thoughtfulness” that triggered Wit’s terror and subsequent wiping of his memories was the question “who would you choose as champion?” That makes it as clear as it can get (without just giving it away) that the choice of champion is the key to TOdium’s plan.

I think this is probably right, and connected with the Rysn interlude.

Umm if TOdium wins and Dalinar is running rampant as a Fused throughout the Cosmere? I’d say there’s a pretty big need for another 5 books!

This is not true, and there’s WoB to that effect. I’ll see if I can find it. EDIT: I think this is the one, but if not, there’s one that R’Shara and Karger cite every time we go down this dead end. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/332/#e12312

At the root of a lot of narcissism is hatred IMO. So on some level I actually think they’re compatible in an unconscious way. Still the purpose of the Sazed epigraph is to tell us “you don’t need to worry about the personality being compatible with the intent, what you need to worry about is the personality arming the Shardic intent with the tools it needs to succeed.” The question (at a minimum, according to Sazed) of the compatibility of Odium with T is interesting but kind of irrelevant. TOdium is set up as basically the most dangerous force for destruction that a Shard can be.

To me the biggest difference is that when Kelsier went to take down the Final Empire, whatever atrocities he committed had a “greater good” motivating them, and he also didn’t, say, kill anyone for no good reason. The Ghostbloods don’t seem to be motivated by a mission that’s good for the Cosmere as a whole - indeed Wit thinks their goal is extremely dangerous - and they also feel comfortable just killing whoever whenever. Another aspect: Kelsier built his crew around a deep unconditional trust. That’s not what we see in the Ghostbloods. When Mraize starts to realize that Shallan has manipulated him, his response is “that’s fine, ambition is a good quality, just be careful not to overdo it.” The Ghostbloods as an org just seem incongruous with what Kelsier was about when he was alive. Either he changed his attitude or he’s done fighting for the good guys now that the good guys didn’t kill his wife. Or maybe Wit is wrong and the Ghostbloods’ vision is actually a good one! I guess we’ll find out but that’s why I was very surprised.

I agree, and also it won’t happen because Brandon has a much better sense of what the appropriate boundaries of a magic system should be than all the yahoos around here who want to deus ex machina everything with the flick of a wrist and a bunch of references to Fortune/Spiritual Realm/Connection. It’s like, “if I say Fortune 8 or 10 times, then I’ve got a plausible way for the Cosmere to achieve world peace and annihilate all evil actors!” Well that was easy.

Yup! 14 years of Jewish education paying off

I’ve been theorizing along these lines as well but can’t come up with anything specific. A couple more things that are relevant: - Brandon said that Deadeyes are supposed to remind us of another similar typology in the Cosmere. The best I can come up with are Kandra=>Mistwraiths. So whatever it was that happened, it was the equivalent of pulling out the spikes for the Parsh, and then probably only leaving Spren with 1 spike, namely their bond. - Another Cosmere parallel is Sel, where the power of Dominion and Devotion was tied to the land since each had been killed. Well, Honor was dying at the time, and it could be that the power underlying the surges was becoming more strongly tied to the land of Roshar than to him. As a result, taking such strong action on BAM who is apparently in some way important for the land of Roshar => bad for everybody, especially Spren. - Another angle along these lines with Sel is that Elantrians are stuck in stasis - which brings to mind how deadeyes are in stasis in the Physical Realm, in the shape of the weapon they had last formed. In fact, it could be the parallel we’re supposed to be drawing isn’t Mistaraiths, but Seons in Elantris/human Elantrians.

It probably matters a lot that Honor isn’t around to keep them on the straight and narrow.

I too thought that Rlain would be a Bondsmith, and if not, a Willshaper. I thought we’d get the explanation of the Recreance in this book. Definitely had a higher opinion of Kelsier, wouldn’t have put him in the Ghostbloods much less as Thaidakar. I thought Ishar would still be sane to all appearances and just be secretly plotting the destruction of the planet - not outwardly acting like a complete whackjob. Like why would Nale or Ash even bother talking to him if this is what he’s like? I would that thought that Nightblood+Perpendicularity = something big, not just collapsing the Perpendicularity and Nightblood in food coma. (Though that hasn’t been fully confirmed yet.) I thought we’d get some good Venli teleportation stuff going on. Actually kinda disappointed that we only saw Lezian do that. I thought the Dawnshards would play any sort of role in the book.

I’m not sure Moash would want to serve Taravangian at all - Taravangian is/was a king! Kaladin grew out of his hatred of the nobility whereas Moash is letting it consume him. Indeed, remember that the moment he gave up on humanity in Oathbringer was when he went to the Singer camp and found that a lighteyes of high rank had managed to manipulate the other humans into serving him. No, I don’t think Moash and Taravangian are gonna see eye to eye at all. Another interesting question: what happens if Odium reveals himself as Taravangian to Jah Keved? Does he immediately gain their allegiance? That would make the 10 days between now and the contest much much more consequential! It might force the humans to up the stakes of the contest.

There’s something here. In particular, Moash going blind probably signifies either a weakness that renders him unfit to be champion, or Odium’s disfavor. This would be stronger if we thought that Moash would be Rayse’s champion, which we don’t have great reasons for thinking; but if we stipulate that Moash would be Rayse’s 3rd choice, after Dalinar and Kaladin, then the shift in favor to El is clear. The other thing that’s missing, though, is: why is this such a cunning maneuver that Rayse wouldn’t have contemplated? It’s clear that it wouldn’t have served Rayse’s goals of “not just winning but winning in a way that makes a statement” in that El is just some Fused, he’s not one of the greatest followers of Honor brought down to Rayse’s level. But what is the angle that makes El such a terrifying adversary, and how will choosing him get TOdium off the planet? Of course we don’t need answers to that right away - if this is right, we’ll find out why in the next book. And if I were to guess, “He Who Silences” doesn’t refer to silencing people or Heralds, but silencing the rhythms themselves. My guess is that El lost his title and rhythms by going too far and threatening Roshar in some way, and will present that sort of conundrum at the contest of champions. EG he has some connection (maybe Connection) with Roshar in such a way that if he dies Roshar collapses too. That would force the humans into a situation where even if they win, their planet gets destroyed like Ashyn. And this makes the tie-in with the Recreance and the Shin much clearer as well... I’ve gotten a bit ahead of myself but yes I like this theory a lot, as weak as it is right now. A good question to ask Brandon: “what metal does El use to replace his horns?” If he RAFOs that, that alone signals that El is very important and nuances like that would spoil the plot. But if the answer is eg aluminum, then we know that the “silencing” is much more profound than just killing people or Heralds or whatever.

This seems far-fetched. The simpler explanation is that Thaidakar doesn’t have a particular opinion about Lift, and that Mraize didn’t have an “excuse” to hunt her because he has to focus his actual efforts on his job. But hey, anything is possible and maybe something will come of this theory.

I wonder what Batab is like and whether her willingness to work on the Diagram is consistent with treachery.

Re (5) I’ve long theorized that she’s going to weirdly join a new order, namely the Dustbringers. Mostly because she’s leading the book, but also because you can see her personality fitting as well. (8) what triggers his realization is TOdium asking him “who would you choose?” So I don’t think it’s about changing vessels mechanically so much as something that was an option for Rayse too, but Rayse just wasn’t thoughtful enough and/or was trying to make a statement with his victory.

It’s possible that this is the plan, but I suspect that that plan is going to be unsuccessful no matter what. For example, TOdium is very clearly a disaster, and that alone might tip her other plans over. Sidenote that people around here (not necessarily you) give Cultivation way too much credit and are tempted to use her as a deus ex machina for the entire series. Guys, Tanavast and Rayse are both dead! Why do you think she’s infallible?

I don’t have time to respond in depth, but this part is too important to pass up: you are 100% right that the “Taravangian’s a utilitarian” thing is beyond ridiculous. The problem with what Taravangian did isn’t that his actions were immoral - it’s that he was simply wrong. In order to be a good utilitarian, first and foremost you need to have correct beliefs about reality that your ethical commitments then inform. To go a step further, if you’re going to do truly atrocious stuff in the service of some much higher goal, you’d better be absolutely certain that that atrocious stuff is necessary. Well, Taravangian was certain - and he was wrong. That’s the problem - not “utilitarianism taken too far”!

This is a good point, but Wit doesn’t seem dissatisfied with the contract - in fact he seems even happier.

I particularly like the theory because of this bit about only showing up via Avatar.

Keep in mind the Stone Shammanate of the Shin: one very important component of Shin religion is the holiness of stone. Combine that with the pointer from Kelek about Ba Ado Mishram’s capture doing damage to the planet. These are all clearly related and going to be at least one of the main themes of book 5 when we finally explore Shinovar.