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Ashbringer

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Everything posted by Ashbringer

  1. Ashbringer
    Tinfoiling, in my opinion, isn’t incredibly suspicious. We don’t have much to go on in the first cycle, and since there’s no roles there won’t be much to go on for a while. At least a tinfoil reason is a reason. Am I saying this because I will end up tinfoiling a lot once I can actually analyze things? Yes. Yes I am. But spouting theories is NAI in my opinion, until it becomes a case of tunneling or refusing to listen to anyone else’s reasoning. I think it’s currently Silber (5), Pyro (4). I don’t know if I read anything from either, so... Pyro for the tie. If people are emphatic about not tying the lynch D1 I’ll move back to Experience or someone else, but I’d rather let fate decide over my skimming on mobile for a real judgement.
  2. Ashbringer
    Gah, sorry. I have to leave for somewhere so I can’t really do the analysis I wanted to. That being said, the lynch is between Pyro with 4 votes, Silber with 3, and Straw with two. I don’t want to lynch Straw because he seems to be doing good analysis, but as far as I can tell from skimming the main suspicion of Pyro is that he hasn’t been active, which I can understand with LG66 being in the endgame. That leaves Silber. If making a tie is a bad idea, than I’ll move somewhere else. Aaaaaand ninja’d by Mint. Sigh. I don’t want to be a tiebreaker. I’ll vote Experience because I can’t tell when the cycle will end, but I’ll probably move it.
  3. Ashbringer
    Shoot, I need to catch up on this. Give me a second to see where this Pyro train came from. Will (hopefully) edit.
  4. Ashbringer
    Here's my attempt at making a meme. Sorry if something similar has been done! WoR spoilers:
  5. Ashbringer
    Hey everyone, I'm here, but like a few people here I'm going to be balancing this with LG66 for a few days, along with, you know, life. I'll see if I can do some reads later, but my experience with D1 voting is... well, everyone in LG66 knows how well that went... I'm used to doing role analysis over post analysis, so I can look at game facts over just what I think people are saying. I'll post with a poke vote soon.
  6. Ashbringer
    Hmm. Well, I can't think of anything that would change this, unless @Karnage finally shows up. I don't know how balanced we want the set of votes to be. I don't think that there should be any further vote manip, but it's still a possibility, especially with possible storing canceling votes. I'd rather for us to be more united, but at the same time I don't know which one of the two of them I want to lynch. In the meantime, I have no idea what to do about Mist. If there are two Elims, Mist has at least a 25% chance of being one, in which case it will be hard to break through a Thug, especially if she has a Vest or something. Or Thug-Firesoul could be a worry. If there's only one Elim, than hopefully the Emi/Lahilt lynch or the Augur power will find them and we can move from there. (This is why I don't like this Augur thing, because we have to wait to get the information for so long... ah well.) There's also a good bit of problems around what the shop could have missing. If it's the lerasium, that could be very bad if we don't find who has it. But a spike or dagger in the wrong hands could be just as problematic.
  7. Ashbringer
    I get that you would rank yourself the most village in any scenario... but what is this supposed to mean?
  8. Ashbringer
    Lord Faleast had tried to be quiet. He had tried to sit in the corner, not saying anything, merely being a neutral observer. It didn't go very well. To many people had died, and now only eight members still stood, staring daggers at each other from across the room. Who knows where Darson had hid himself, and the small kitten appeared to be hiding as well. He looked around. Pyria Young, the child. Reginald, the bloody man who claimed he'd seen a Loyalist in Augur-fueled visions. TJ, the analyst of the group that considered themselves pure. Lorinne, the girl who'd had a close encounter with the man Lafay and survived to tell some amount of a tale. Lumen, the apparent Thug who seemed to be grudgingly trusted. Lahilt, the silent soldier, and Lance Neverwatch, the suspected Faceless Immortal, sat around the table as if asleep. There sure are a lot of people here who's names start with L. And, of course, himself, watching the group and failing to avoid taking sides. This was the Endgame, for both the People's Republic and for the Loyalists. If the "core" could truly be trusted, then the PRE could likely come out of this disaster intact. If. ... Striker... I just realized... is the Village of the "People's Republic of Elendel" trying to lead a Communist revolution of Scadrial?
  9. Ashbringer
    Yup, those are the three TJ. I could support either Emi or Lahilt for today's lynch, but I'm open to arguments as to which one of you two to lynch. @Lahilt. @Karnage is probably pseudo-clear as the most likely Kandra, and if he happens to be an Elim!Kandra then the real Elims may just take care of him for us. Making a tie between the two could prove interesting, but that's probably an unnecessary risk. But mislynching here would... not be good. I will say this: I'm slightly nervous of this all being an Elim!Mage masterstroke. It's probably my conspiracy-theory me talking, but think about it. We now can't lynch Mage this turn because we need his information. Next turn, he could "reveal" his attacker, essentially sentencing them to death by Coinshot or the next lynch, forcing the Village to possibly hit two villagers in a row. ... you know, that made a lot more sense in my head than when I type it. I think we should still follow Mage's target, but we should do it with the Coinshot instead of with our next lynch. We don't have any more leads, and I think I trust Mage, but we can't afford to wait on two lynches.
  10. Ashbringer
    "I never let my Soulcaster out of my sight," Cassie replied, smiling and showing the bracelet. She wasn't exactly comfortable with this stranger knowing about her Soulcaster, but it couldn't be helped. She wasn't exactly worried about thieves anyway. "What is it you need?"
  11. Ashbringer
    Well, there has to BE one...
  12. Ashbringer
    Okay, I'm going to do a little role analysis here. There are 32 different roles in this game, Allomantic and Feruchemical. I'm discounting Hemalurgist and Thief for now. If we strike out all the roles that have appeared in dead players, we get this: Meaning most of our live players should have some of these unused roles. With some of the ones players have claimed to have (and Aluminum Gnat, because... useless) and bolding the rest, we get this: Meaning that of the living players who haven't mentioned things about their roles (you know who you are), we may likely have a Steelrunner and a Soulbearer. And if that's in Elim hands, that could be very worrying, especially if they now have the Lerasium. A Steelrunner who's been charging all this time may have enough charges that if they get the Lerasium and become a Coinshot, they could wipe out all 5-6 Villagers, especially if they've been hoarding the Vests. A clever Duralumin Gnat may be able to pull this off as well, but it's hard to tell. An Elim Soulbearer can't do that, because they can't charge Coinshot hits until they have the Coinshot ability, and I highly doubt the Elims have a Coinshot-Soulbearer at this point. But I can't imagine there isn't a Soulbearer out there somewhere, and it's kind of now or never for both the Village and the Elims. And hyper boosting almost any Allomantic ability at this point would be very dangerous. Oracle and Skimmer are relatively innocuous, and I feel like a Windwhisperer would have done the damage they could at this point, regardless of alignment. Some of the roles that haven't repeated themselves (ie... not Leecher, but also not Gasper, Sentry, Lurcher, Smoker) may also pop up. Not really alignment based, but an interesting set of findings.
  13. Ashbringer
    Tyrian looked at the... thing in front of him. It looked like a cross between a dog and a man, but it didn't look like it should be alive. It had definitely came for him, and it claimed to have been sent by Silas. Silas. The one he had came to rescue. The one who had such power. The one he would need as an ally in this city. The one who had abandoned him. "Fine. Take me to Silas. I also have a... need of him."
  14. Ashbringer
    Poller jerked awake - he hadn't realized he'd drifted off. Sitting and watching a door for hours on end bored him, and that made his... problem worse. "Welcome to Cassandra Adama's Metallurgic Emporium! We can supply any metals, be it decorative or industrial, Allomantic or Feruchemical, Soulcast or natural! What can I do for you?" he recited from memory, then shook himself. "Well, mostly. My name is Poller. I'm Ms. Adama's assistant; she's not in right now, so we can't do any Soulcasting, but I can take requests for comissions or sell pre-made items!"
  15. Ashbringer
    Ooooh. That is clever, and a really nice Twinborn combo. I was wondering when the Brute would show itself once the two Lurchers went down. So, did your spike or your Brute ability kill Kidpen? Or was it something else? I'm assuming our Contribution Crusade of a Coinshot killed TKG, but that's besides the point.
  16. Ashbringer
    Well, someone needs to say something so Mage doesn't double post. Kidpen being an Elim Spinner is interesting: for one thing, if we'd actually succeeded in lynching Hatz D1, we would have started this game a whole lot differently... and being only a Spinner in this game has to be not great, Village or Elim. With TGK being a Connector, I think the Elims probably only have maybe a Soother for vote manipulation. Still, 8 players left, with 1 Kandra and 1-2 Elims. I don't know how good a record that is, but hey, I'm still here, which is better than I expected.
  17. Ashbringer
    Oh. Oops. For some reason I keep getting you and TJ confused in my brain. I think because you read almost identical.
  18. Ashbringer
    ... Well, Pyro, saving the Village is up to you! I just don't know if being redirected by a Slider or another Pulser would tell me like it does a Roleblock. I assume it does, but I don't really know. Also I was really tired last night when I posted that... I think this analysis makes sense. I will say, clearing Mist for the Kandra for being a Thug depends on when (and how) you learned Mist became a Thug. The Thug role is hard to prove without, you know, testing it, so I don't know if that can act as a full Kandra clear. But it's better than nothing. Maybe it could mean something, maybe it couldn't. I'll be busy today, so I probably will only make a few other posts. I will say that I'm a little put off by how certain Mage was that Walin was an Elim Connector, but it made some sense at the time. But "some sense" is relative to the lack of sense I seem to be seeing. What do I know. My specialty is just strategic analysis.
  19. Ashbringer
    The Alleycity Watch seemed to say they would take care of the Dustbringer situation, but Byron wasn't really sure. He heard a click! and the voices coming from the phone stopped. Byron slowly lowered the device, then looked at the group that had gathered around. He took a few steps to the left, trying to make sure they were all outside his shrunken time bubble. "Um, should I be answering this too?" he asked.
  20. Ashbringer
    Fantastic. Another mislynch. Just what we needed. I’m going to be taking a look at this. But since no one wants to say the obvious... the Lerasium is still there. Pyro, Mage, you should both have enough naturally by now to try and buy it, and if we’re in a point where the Village can contest the Elims buying it than that’s what we need to do. Since there’s an Uncharged Spike missing there might be three deaths tonight anyways, but now that there’s some time to discuss I pulsed Karnage last night. I think.
  21. Ashbringer
    Blast, I thought I had posted something before. I’ll put a vote on Walin, but I’m at a loss for what to do. This late into the cycle I don’t think stating my Pulse target will change anything. Might do it during night cycle, depending on how different things flip with the lynch and the black market and people nagging me. I will say it wasn’t Walin or Mist.
  22. Ashbringer
    Tyrian slipped through a crack his pulse of anger had created. He had found some sort of sewer system beneath the city, and it seemed to lead for a long ways. It would be a good place to run, to get away. He sniffed. Smelled awful, though. Cinder started whiring around, sparks trailing from her fingers. Of course he would love this place. Tyrian started into a jog, slipping one sickle from his back sheath. He wouldn't have time to go for anything less than a killing blow. He needed to run, he needed to hide, he needed to flee... Flee what? Suddenly he froze, watching as Cinder lazily whizzed around to face him, smiling. "You finally figured it out, didn't you?" "One of them... they did something to my mind, didn't they?" Tyrian asked. Cinder's smile widened. "Yep, you did figure it out. I'm so proud." Tyrian growled, turning to punch the wall of the pipe. He left a dent in the stone. "I can't fight that. Not all at once. I need to wait, to not be so exposed, to..." He needed help. Someone who could plan, attack, and someone he knew he could trust enough. And, he knew someone who owed him something much more than he was asking. He started down the sewer pipe, heading toward where he thought the outskirts of the city lay. He needed to find Silas.
  23. Ashbringer
    Byron looked at the device, then pushed the buttons in the order that Aln had shown him. It emitted a brief noise, then a high-pitched, cadmium-dilated voice toned, "Alleycity Watch, what is your emergency?" Byron hesitated, trying to talk quickly to counteract his time bubble. "This is Byron, calling from the... Scholar's Guild. There was an incident a few blocks away... east of here, I think. A prison van was broken into by T-- by a hostile Dustbringer. He unleashed a man that could control shadows. The prisoner disappeared, and the Dustbringer was engaged by a group of Knights Radiant, but... he set a building on fire, and I don't know what happened to them."
  24. Ashbringer
    "Ah," Cassie said. She hadn't noticed that before; it was a clever design for transport. Cassie looked it over, then took the box and re-covered the device, leaving the wheels open and cutting a hole for the handle with her pocketknife. "Now," she asked, ignoring the new 'customer', "do you need anything Soulcast for me?"
  25. Ashbringer
    I'm getting very weirded out by all of this. Both TJ and Pyro seem to know a great deal of convinient information, and a chain of Pyro to Archivist (possibly through another player) leaves too much room for deception for my liking, and with the Coinshot's identity at stake then I'd rather keep my mouth shut. I need to get some analysis done. It's also going to be really hard to judge whether there is a missing kill, because my guess is that someone has the lerasium now, which means that the Elims may have an extra Coinshot or defensive role like Slider. In the meantime, I think there are 2-3 Elims left. If Elandera got killed for her suspicions, then Emi and Walin could be more suspects, or it could be a ruse. As for Mist being a Thug, what exactly does that change? Village or Elim, being a Thug is really only potent when people don't know you're a Thug (as far as I can tell). It would take two lynches to kill Mist, but if she's really suspect by enough people than lynching her once would at least make her vulnerable to an emergency Coinshot-ing. Being a Thug is NAI, but if she's really an Elim suspect then waiting to lynch her could put us in danger later. We shouldn't lynch her for being a Thug, but it also shouldn't be the only reason to stop lynching a suspect.
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