Mat
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I was focusing less on where he ended up and more where he had left- if e!Thaid voted e!TJ, he'd want to get off eventually and it fits with mirrorAraris!Thaid to match TJ's vote in that scenario. Later though I ultimately decided those three being evil together doesn't really make sense because they entirely composed the Stick train. What I was getting at there is that there's no way three elims voted Stick together unless Stick is also elim and her theory she posted late was, like, what was actually happening :P. That being a lot of elims piling on an elim to get credit. That 'Wait a minute' link is Stick's bus post, so that's what I was referring to when I said 'bus'. No, I don't believe this. But it was if Stick is evil :eyes: Good podcast, would recommend. Doesn't have to be last minute, just elim-voting-elim, but yeah.
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Ah, I see the confusion. A bus is when an elim final-votes on a fellow elim, especially when their exe goes through. The pile of votes you’re describing is called a bandwagon. I called your phrasing an elim slip (mostly as a joke) because as of now, with only one elim dead, we don’t know if there was a bus or not. Personally, I find it unlikely.
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How does one vote analysis Hmm So if I mess up a VC anywhere just @ me because I'm making these as I go through the thread and probably missed something K so the first VC that's maybe useful to look at is this one: (Up to here) Which is basically just all of the enter-thread-go votes, at the beginning of C1. Things of potential note: TJ's vote, though I can't legally call it shaky reasoning since I half agreed with it at the time Araris' vote on me, come to your own conclusions. I greened myself, yes, but only because this is coming from my PoV. You're entitled to see it however you wish. Most interestingly, Thaid's vote on TJ- wondering if this is a situation where a 'random' vote is actually distancing in disguise. I know in my early elim days 'poking' a teammate was something I liked to do, but I don't know if it fits Thaid's profile. @Thaidakar the Ghostblood I know you said you didn't have any but try to explain it, please and thank you! Moving on- (Up to here) Striker's vote is interesting to me, since the only thing Bort had said at this point is that he wants to use the Fang ASAP, which is also one of the only things Striker has said. Not sure where this vote came from, seeing as their views were, on paper, pretty similar. @StrikerEZ I don't really mind xino's vote, it makes sense with his progression imo After some more posts we end up here: First, Thaid's movement from TJ to Stick is of obvious attention- I know some people (me included) just saw this as a ??? self pres but another way to look at it is a continuation of the Thaid-TJ distancing theory. Again, Thaid's playstyle lends itself to this not really being a conclusion that can be definitely made, but it's not not there. Ngl I'm kind of a fan of Striker's abrupt switch from Bort to xino here, even if I didn't like his first vote. Reads village to me. But Araris' vote I think just implies v!Striker, straight up, I know it's a movement off me and that could look weird to some people but I just don't read that as a bus, especially since Striker voted Araris in response to this vote and stuck with it. (Which isn't reflected in the above VC because of the large gap of posts between his and Araris', but his vote is here) I also know that I mentioned Striker being the most likely bus candidate, but that was before I reread the thread and remembered exactly how it went down. The Araris train is likely just pure. The next lightning rounds of votes take us to this Kinda sorta reopens the e!Striker-bus possibility but eh Gotta say I do not like the sudden Thaid train reading this back, I'm semi-indifferent to xino/Bort. And starting to favor Archer's read of Thaid :P. Also, I'm busting my TJ/Thaid/Araris theory since there's like no way they all end up on Stick here if they're all elims, right? There's been some crazy elim votes lately but surely not a bus to that extent... Wait a minute ...Moving on... There's basically no reason for e!Stick to move at this point, it's a dangerous move to make since she was tied with someone near EoD and went for someone- an elim no less!- with only 1 vote and not a ton of attention. Even if that bus post of hers totally fits with TJ/Thaid/Araris Archer's vote is also just extremely villagery since there's no reason for him to touch that wagon unless one of Stick or Thaid are evil and Archer for some reason prefers Araris dead. And that's our final VC. A few last notes: Orlok gets many village points for unvoting Stick, a move that was as critical as the Araris votes in getting him exed. There is absolutely no reason for e!Orlok to do this unless Stick is also evil, and preferred over Araris for some reason. I don't see it. I've seen people mention that TJ should be condemned for doing nothing at EoD, and I don't actually agree with this statement. I think e!TJ is smart enough to recognize that tying it with Stick is suspicious to begin with, so much more so if Araris loses the tie, so it makes sense for e!TJ not to have voted there. CONCLUSIONS: Village: Stick, Archer, Orlok Sorta Village: Striker Sorta Elim: Thaid And no, I don't think anyone's votes were inherently elimmy. Elims typically know how to vote without looking super sus I think the clears are the value we get from the C1 voting. There's probably something to be said about Bort and xino (both in their votes and the votes on them at various points in the cycle) but I don't have those words right now and this analysis took up more time that I thought it would (Kas, you're exceptional >>) but look I got it done tonight I'm so glad Anyway TJ Shade shhh yes I used your old name it's longer and more visible to GMs To be crystal clear- not voting TJ because of his abstinence from voting at EoD last turn. I think his Stick vote is strange with the perspective of v!Stick, especially since it stuck for so long, and also because of the way he's fixating on the bus, and a little bit of his Archer suspicion which I just don't understand xD But here's the vote and I'm tired, good night. If you read nothing in this post, read the spoiler box below, I c/pd the most important bits there which ended up being half the post anyway
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Ok, so last turn Araris plopped a first vote on me immediately, for reasons that were eh at best, which attracted some attention (but not a lot). Later, Araris moved from me to Striker for reasons that were more eh- this is what initially started the thoughts of an Araris exe in most people's minds, I think- but Striker theorized that the move on Araris' part was unnecessary unless I'm teammed with him. I went along with it as a joke somewhat but since it was early cycle and I was a help in getting Araris killed I don't think it should be looked at as serious evidence. I think that if there's a bus it's most likely from Striker, as the first Araris voter. The last three came in like the final hour of the cycle. I'm not set on a bus, I think based on the way the votes were cast it's more likely there wasn't, but if there is one it's almost always from Striker. Sorry if I mentioned it as a foregone conclusion- that's not my view, as I've mentioned. I prodded Bort because of the matter-of-factness of his question, but the prod was mostly a joke anyway. The other thing about Stick (besides being the countertrain) was her late vote on Araris, which, granted, could just be self pres. Like, if I'm elim, I'll self pres on myself before my teammate a lot of the time :P. But still, it makes more sense for it just to be v!Stick. The initial case on Thaid actually came from me- I didn't like his viewpoint on the Fang usage and what it implied to me about his priorities, paired with his disengagement levels being higher than usual. Both of those are sort of eh points which is why I ended on Araris over Thaid, but now that the possibility of Thaid having mirrored Araris' Fang views is there I kinda like that. I mean, he never actually said that, it was just the vibe I got. I agree that outright it would have been overly extreme, but it wasn't, and that was what I didn't like. I like your point on TJ and might sheep you on that, but I promised myself I'd do the vote analysis first which I haven't started but tomorrow, I promise :P.
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I might end up on Thaid, but I want to take a page out of our GM’s book by doing a full vote analysis before I vote. (That might come tonight, but maybe tomorrow morning.) Thaid’s mirrored opinion and Araris shifting the vote further from Thaid are two decent pieces of evidence though. @xinoehp512, what’s your reasoning for your Archer placement?
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I voted yes, but I bet you could have guessed that :P. I think that’s a dangerous assumption to make and that we’d do better to forget about the whole thing because there’s no way to know
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Elim slip? :eyes:
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Ok, that’s nice. Knowing at least one elim was pushing against Fanging early is good to know, makes me wonder how shared that opinion was among the elims. Kinda am tinfoiling Thaid used that view because Araris was using it, but idk. Looking at votes from EoD and before should be pretty useful; I’m resisting the urge to clear Stick and Archer but you know >> Ngl I appreciate the Illwei kill since I was tinfoiling e!her in my head, not enough to bring up or really to be a concern but now I don’t have to worry about that :P. smh xD I’d like to think that was a view Araris wanted to be pushed, and I did my best to show it’s false by ruthlessly voting for him late in the turn :P. That being said, you as the earliest voter are probably the most likely bus candidate. You were on at EoD and could have jumped off for the tie you were suggesting, but that’d have potentially looked sus and could be why e!you stayed on Araris. What was the me/Araris e/e thing about again? I don’t remember despite being the one who kept bringing it up :P. Likely won’t be on for fourish hours.
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Yeah, we need seven Huh, surprised those were the two you mentioned. I didn’t notice that xino’s vote pattern being that way, which is a valid point, but Archer I think is one of the most reasonable vote switchers we’ve had :P. I don’t see how either of those relate to your bus theory though?
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Araris wants later, Orlok wants later, Thaid wants later, TJ wants C2, pretty sure Archer wants later, and those are just the ones I remember. I definitely can’t think of seven people who would activate today, but maybe y’all will surprise me :P. What would your bus theory imply, do you think? Which candidate do you think is being bussed and who are the bussers?
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I mean sure, but afaik more people were in favor of waiting for the Fang :P. What are you implying?
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There’s an hour and a half left in the cycle, right? Feel bad about this if Araris isn’t coming back xD Araris I do think we should try to use the Fang today
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It is ideal if we never need to use it, because that would mean we get an elim today, but that wasn’t what it seemed like Thaid was implying to me. It also isn’t a reason not to use it, it’s not as if using the Fang successfully harms us in any way. Not using the Fang can harm us if we are just misexeing. About Stick, do note that I never said that I village read her :P. Though we’re mindmelding so much rn that I can’t decide if I should, or if it’s a pocket attempt >> I do think her exe shouldn’t happen today. Also would be fine with Araris but it looks like Thaid’s picked up some votes which makes me nervous since the reason I’m voting him is something only I saw. I would have thought other people would be more hesitant to join me. Village points to TJ for not voting Thaid?
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Eh, I think Araris has a point. The best argument for your case I can think of is e!me and, well, that’s not what’s happening It is possible he wanted to move and needed a way out but Araris likes his stab votes and probably could have found something else if he really wanted to… I don’t love a few of his posts but this specifically I think is fine.
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Pretty sure I had more people in my good pile as well :P.
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that looks suspiciously like sarcasm
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There’s a lot of things we can give pause to because he’s done it before but they’re also just suspicious which makes it hard to read him :P. I think his activity has been less than ever before, which is potentially e indicative. Hard to say when he’s never been elim. I asked about Thaid’s opinion on the Fang debate- his answer suggested to me that he didn’t want it to be used at all and was trying to cover that up with siding with later-rather-than-sooner, if that makes sense. Like he said C2 would be good, and C3 would be good, and also C4, and when I pointed out that C4 would likely be too late he didn’t say anything. It was an answer to me that didn’t fit with what I expected based on his playstyle and seemed like he’d really just rather not use it. I don’t think Stick should die today. v!Stick is definitely an asset to us and the reasons against her, while somewhat valid, I don’t think are enough. I’ve thought about this for awhile and think I’d rather wait for more evidence before voting her.
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There was only one game I can think of where everyone was a Thug :eyes: I do remember reading a game with 1 starting elim though, and they won
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An elim dying D1 is never in the elims’ favor, even if they get to stay in the elim doc. They get to stay in the elim doc if we don’t Fang, but they also still count for parity. I think it’s weird people keep comparing it to us exeing an elim because if we exe an elim today the Fang doesn’t take effect. It only activates if we misexe. To me the only way this makes sense is if you’re arguing against using the Fang at all. I’d rather get a red flip as soon as possible, preferably through the exe but through the Fang as an insurance policy.
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Can you try to explain why, for both of these reads? As well as your Stick vote, basically what Stick said I mean, it's a weak read and I wouldn't have made it myself, so /shrug. I'm voting Thaid, who as you've pointed out just made a weird self pres onto you.
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Yes, you're somewhat avoiding the thread and I got bad vibes in PMs :P. Specifically on your thoughts on using the Fang.
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Sorry for not being around yesterday- Invitational track meets take a long time and I was tired afterwards Here now though. Kinda just want to do the bucket list thing, but I'll add in the reasons why. Note that these will be spit-fire as I've read the entire thread once through and should redo that and respond to things, that will come later. Buckets include only people with posts, and aren't ordered within themselves. Good Bucket: Bad Bucket: Feel best on Thaid at the moment. I don't mind Stick but I guess it depends on the VC in 24 hours.
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Philico’s last Sel game went pretty well… he’s in.
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No, a red flip from an exe we choose is better than a red flip that the elims get the choose, as Archer has pointed out. My point is that it doesn’t matter. If we exe an elim today, it doesn’t matter if we activate the Fang or not, it’s the same result. If we misexe today, the Fang gives us a red flip anyway, which is better than no red flip.
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This is a weird vote, since Bort wasn't suggesting we forgo an exe to activate the Fang. The Fang comes after execution, and its placement in the OoA disincentivizes messing with the exe to begin with. If we exe an elim today it doesn't matter what we prefer, we won't get a Fang flip.
