Mat
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Everything posted by Mat
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Sorry for being so disengaged this game. I think that Exp’s claim is NAI since it was likely was devised in their Empire doc and Aman is in that Empire doc But disregarding that I’ve gotten a village feel from his explanations on this page.
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Aman Really can’t see his votes from a village perspective. In what situation does v!Aman park on an inactive last cycle and stay there? Aman’s usually very invested in solving, using his votes to prod people and work out the elims. He’s not a villager to stay on an inactive for a turn like he did last cycle.
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Sigh. Almost wish I was NKd. Seriously though, where are the Veterans? >> I don’t even know where to go with this. I’m beyond confused why xino needed my prompting to unvote or why he didn’t self pres, I guess he thought his misexe was necessary, or something? And apparently had no confidence in e!Aman? Idk. No point in talking about that now. TJ/Aman not e/e.
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A massive amount of gut that refuses to go away, primarily, but it's also not based on nothing. First, I see a difference between Aman this game and Aman in his last games. It reminds me more of the AG, where he was Hyena, and elim, than any other game. His votes don't match with what he's saying. Last cycle, he vocally suspected Bort, but voted Orlok. This turn he vocally suspects xino, but votes the inactive. That doesn't make sense, nor match with how I think v!Aman usually plays. There are a lot of other little things as well. Like the strange confidence in being NKd, the fact that he wanted a PM with Orlok and didn't send Orlok a PM (implying to me that he was concerned Orlok could use the PM to decipher his alignment), his mid-game assumption of 3 elims when the consensus has always been 4. All these things together is something that I can't ignore. A warning to everyone that I won't be on for the last hour of the cycle, so don't expect me to last minute switch back to xino if that's what we're doing. I won't be there :P.
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I think they do replace PMs, yeah. Don't think I've ever seen a game where everyone publicly claimed all their PMs in thread ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯ It may be naive. This is the first time I've had the chance to sit down at a computer and really think about the game, since I had a fairly hectic day yesterday, but I don't understand how it could be misleading. 'Misleading' implies that the secrecy option is directly harmful, when everything accomplished by wide-spread claiming can be accomplished by a single emissary. Edit: Also going to further clarify about the RNG- I imagine it went down similar to the normal process for randing the alignments- the GM does a few options and picks the best one. Most of the time that results in an average game, but sometimes Orlok and Kas are elims together, sometimes people get 6 elim games in a row, RNG messes with you I think with four docs and four elims there's a doc with 2, a doc with 0, and two docs with 1, but that's based on literally nothing mathematical. I think this is an absurd request when I definitely haven't seen five reasons in favor of publicizing the Emipre rosters, so no, I won't start listing reasons. I've made my case. I'm not going to ask for five reasons from you, either, because I'm sure you could come up with something and we don't need to go there- that's not the point. I'm sure it's helpful if everyone's Empire is known, I'm sure it's helpful if they're not. They're both helpful in different ways, and I prefer keeping it hidden. This isn't a right answer/wrong answer situation, just like using the Fang early vs. using the Fang later. I think it's funny that you think differing opinions about this is enough for a vote :P. It's definitely the first- like I said, just woke up after a hectic mobile-limited afternoon/evening- but I don't like how this implies there's a correct answer to this question, because I don't think there is. As I've mentioned, there's upsides and downsides to both, my instincts like keeping it relatively secret. smh they came as fast as they could, I was sleeping ...........so why the heck are you voting me for suggesting a level of said sharing xD Obviously I can't stop everyone if they want to share their members, and if the rest of my Empire does as well, I will go along with that. There's upsides to both. Other thoughts on the gamestate Voted Thaid half as a joke, half because it makes some amount of sense- I don't think they've cared about votes on them ever before, at least not like this. Change in playstyle may equal change in alignment? Also a fraction of self pres going on here, apparently >> I do like Aman's approach to the game thus far, and I like how his first vote on me didn't stick even to a single post. Striker's vote does read like opportunistic elim Striker to me, but we'll see if that vote sticks. Archer/Thaid not e/e I should reread the thread because I probably missed a lot yesterday
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Aman
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Obviously I don’t think anyone would slip on purpose, but I don’t see a ton of benefit in revealing when it feels like half the point of the docs is that they’re secret. imo the possibility that the elims will make a mistake outweighs the benefits from publicly revealing the docs but I seem to be the only one with that opinion so I could just be wrong :P. I also am under the assumption that the docs were true RNGd and so I don’t think the elims are equally spread throughout them. I don’t think we can clear people based on being in an Empire with one or two elims.
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I know who’s in my doc. If someone outside of my doc knows who’s in my doc, and everyone in my doc has kept quiet, that’s weird.
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I don’t think we should reveal our empires in case someone slips up later by knowing more than they should
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What if I just went like Thaid
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Why not vote on TUN or Aman here? I understand that Aman is in your village reads (and now doesn't have any votes :P) and TUN is inactive, but surely you realize that there's pretty much no chance of a TJ exe this cycle and would want to self pres.
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it says gullible on the ceiling
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Looked at xino, focusing on his reads progression. Cycle One's list is apparently unordered, but the others are all ordered. Note: When I use quotes 'like this' I'm not using to imply that the contents within the quotes is incorrect, I'm just using it as an easy way to direct quote/paraphrase xino. When I "do this" it's a direct quote. Cycle One, List One : Note that Araris wasn't included in the list, but when it was pointed out that Araris was absent, xino stuck him into the evil slot. This list was posted entirely without reasoning, but xino was aware of this, so that itself isn't suspicious imo. When asked, had 'good vibes' from Bort Thought TJ's aggressiveness was elim (which is fair since TJ just came off of a power/deepwolf game :P) but fair or not it's not a super great reason Had 'evil vibes' from Stick, from a 'confrontational tone'. Also: xino was the first person to outright village read Bort, in fact when he did so Bort had 2 votes. Further prodding made xino move TJ to the good bucket, but that was never reflected in any of his lists. This is a good spot to again mention Araris' switch from me to Striker- he did so because "there are too many names in that good list for my liking". At the time, xino had one less name in his good list than Striker, which sure, is less, but I think if xino and Striker were v/v he wouldn't have singled out Striker so much. But he also glossed over me, so idk. After this was when xino put Araris in the evil bucket, which I mention again for clarity in timing's sake. Bort and xino voted Thaid back-to-back, tying him with Stick. Idk if that means anything, maybe just further confirmation that Thaid is village :P. Cycle Two, List One Probably the most interesting thing I find about this is, despite claiming C1's list was unordered, the village tier is basically exactly the same; the only difference is Illwei is substituted for Stick. That seems like an elim was lazy in making a new list This theory would be better if the elim tier was closer, but it got shuffled pretty good. There's no change to it though, despite moving Stick wayyy up for reasons that were never articulated. Reasons, which came later at request, were: Archer is elim because he's defending Thaid Bort and JNV village because 'good vibes' C1 Araris elim because Araris was "arguing that using the fang would be detrimental to the village, which seemed like something an elim would say." Look at that last point for a second- it's interesting to me, because xino did something similar in implying the Fang isn't meant to be a massive help. It's not exactly the same thing, but it's also not a view that goes in line with the Araris suspicion, imo. Plus, that wasn't really the vibe I got from Araris to begin with, elim or no. Cycle Two, List Two Bort inexplicably shifts down because of 'bad vibes'. In between xino's two lists this turn, the first with Bort giving 'good vibes' and the second with Bort giving 'bad vibes', Bort posted a total of five times, two of those being confusion about the term 'bus' (which I think was a legit confusion, for what it's worth, since the Araris train was pure ) and the other three being defenses, one replying to Orlok and the other two in response to Archer. I think there's enough here to theoretically change a read, so I won't end this paragraph with saying that I think it's weird xino did this- it isn't. I didn't know it wouldn't be until I checked how many times Bort posted, and what those posts were TJ's claim 'is suspicious' and xino doesn't like his persistence on Stick (ironic, considering xino's persistence on TJ), and that something about TJ 'feels off' I think that overall, the changes from C2L1 to C2L2 seem natural to me. When Thaid's exe isn't going through, votes TJ instead. (This will come up again later) Cycle Three, List One: This list came halfway through the turn. Perhaps notable that Thaid stayed in the elim tier, despite derping several times since xino's last list, but perhaps not. No further reasons are given for the list or changes to it. However, I think there's something to be said about his vote on TJ. Remember last turn, when xino switched to an exe candidate that had a chance of being exed, despite them being lower in his list? (Thaid -> TJ) Well, in this exe, he stays on TJ despite the two candidates being Orlok and Bort, the next two players in his elim list. That's a notable behavior change, and one that looks suspicious considering Bort was evil. I don't think Orlok has to be elim here to make xino elim, either- If TJ/Thaid is v/v, e!xino would have no preference between the two. But in an e/v exe, xino does have a preference and would perhaps not want to show it when everyone else was leaning towards Bort. e!Orlok does work here, though. Cycle Four: Just says that his opinions have not changed, and makes no comment on the Bort flip. Other Misc Thoughts xino was on the wait for the Fang team, which probably doesn't mean anything since Bort heavily advocated for using it immediately. I'm of the opinion that the elims are more likely to be on the wait for the Fang team, but I don't know if that's actually true. Mentioned the possibility of an elim Veteran on D1 (relook at if xino flips evil) It's interesting to me that I've been parked at the top of xino's village list for literally the entire game, with no fluctuation in the slightest :P. Especially with Striker and Archer being elim reads, and Stick moving around, clearly xino thinks a bus is possible- why leave me there, ignored, at the top? Conclusions: Nothing crazy. I'm perfectly happy keeping my vote on xino, based on the game so far. I think with the PoE we have and the likely group of villagers, xino makes sense as a next step. Connections: xino/TJ not e/e xino/Orlok potentially e/e xino/Thaid probably not e/e
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This is somewhat of a moot point imo, since basically everyone was :P. Or at least stuck him in their village reads and left him there.
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I mean, I think it’s interesting that Aman thinks he’s an NK target more than anything else
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Why is backreading never as useful as I think it will be? EoD D2 should be useful because it's close with two villagers and TJ, except the reason that Striker went through was Archer and Orlok. D1 was pretty uneventful as far as connections go, basically just all the confirmed villagers and TJ reading Bort village :P. Here's a thing- Orlok- D1 the exe was tied between Stick and Araris, and Orlok caused Araris' death. He also pushed very hard to get Bort killed. Outside of exlo and exhausting all other options, not going here. Thaid- Generally disconnected, with multiple moments that... just don't really come from an elim Like forgetting what exe means, or whatever that thing in like C2 was that I forgot. All this is possible to fake, but that's not the vibe I get. JNV- As Aman mentioned, a player that's really trying. I haven't PMd them much but I agree that I just get a general village feel overall I'm reasonably certain that everyone in that list is a villager. TJ- I do get a gut village read from TJ, and I sympathize with being confused at how this is all playing out, but he's also turned up on the wrong side of a lot of debates and EoDs. Base interactions definitely give me villager vibes though. The one thing that's stopping me is the LG, where I had a similar TJ progression and he turned out to be evil, but his play that game was very different looking from his play this game. Aman- Don't love how he elim read Bort but voted Orlok last turn. Still gut read elim but that's all I've got I'm /shrug certain about anyone in that list xD xino- I keep wanting to iso xino and I keep not doing it, it will happen this turn. I mainly want to look at his reads progression vs his vote pattern. Generally under the radar, so idk. I do recall him elim reading Bort, yet consecutively voting TJ, so that's something to look at. TUN- Just inactive, which makes it hard to tell, you know? I'll start on xino, and I'll either reaffirm this or change it after my iso. That'll come either late tonight or early tomorrow, depending on how my schedule plays out for the rest of the day.
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0 for 2 let’s go This was the wanted outcome though so there is that. Recognize I look bad but whatever :D. Rethinking everything, be back later
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inb4 Bort flips village and I’m the NK
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On mobile, will get back to you C4 if I’m still alive In my head they’re linked as having similar reads and ideas but I guess that might not be as true as I think it is. You can see me citing this in one of my longer posts this cycle, briefly, I think. Idk lol
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The activity point is the weakest, imo. For me xino is the next step if Aman flips elim because they’re kind of mirrored and backing each other up but I don’t want to go there first
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Here's my case on him (Some points helped by Stick) A healthy sum of gut, but reasoned gut due to the rest of the bullet points here. Aman's solving approach this game feels much more like Hyena to me than his last few games. I really don't like the way/amount he's pushing Bort and Orlok, or the way all of his opinions just kind of... manifested His progression on you, in our PM, is weird. First he seems fairly confident in v!you, but I make a little comment about how you deepwolfed during the LG (this comment concluded with a village read on you, which I do have) and that alone sent Aman into a paranoia spiral which I found unusual. The Archer kill could be explained if it was a quick submission at the beginning of the cycle, and not the end, and the elims simply weren't around as Archer picked up votes- this suggests a very limited pool of elims but Aman is definitely in that pool :P. Is the only player to first assume a 3 elim team, which could be a differing opinion or could be a slip :P. TUA/Aman as the remaining elims works with the previous point /shrug I can list things and write them out all I want but at the end of the day it's a gut read, so decide what you want about that. I'm voting where I feel the best voting, but Bort isn't an exe I necessarily disagree with so much as see no reason to agree with it, if that makes sense.
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No Bort I don't like it Aman That's better
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Anyone being 90% sure about anything with this gamestate also worries me xD
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I'm honestly looking at Aman/xino right now and would switch there if I thought it anyone else did. Bort does work, don't get me wrong. I just want everyone to go to Aman and xino next if Bort flips village, and there's no guarantee of that happening :P.
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Am I the only one worried by literally everyone's bottom tier being identical?
