Mat
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Everything posted by Mat
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I certianly can see both, and haven't shot down either, for what it's worth.
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If I vote out JNV, if isn't because I think they're partnered with you, it's because they work with the most people as a partner. I want to make that clear. If the only reason I was considering JNV was because I think they're your partner, I wouldn't be considering it, I'd just be set on you.
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What is your goal with this? Surely you don't think that Orlok has any chance of being exed today. Ok, here. Your posts in the last hour and random voting have read more like frustrated village than anything else, how would you feel about voting JNV today? TUN? I'm unlikely to vote TUN but his last post has increased my paranoia of one of the teams with him in it significantly. If you're village you already have that right until the end of time :P.
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You're right, sorry I didn't make this more clear when I worked it out in my head- I guess I never really posted it into the thread so here: [Aman, JNV, TJ, Orlok, TUN] I'm taking out Orlok due to D1 and Bort. If I took out TJ due to reasons I already articulated many times it would leave me with you, JNV, and TUN, and you don't work with TUN but I think you work with JNV- whether your opinions this cycle are the same or different than JNV doesn't matter, elim teammates can do both and you are both voting on the same train- I'd be committed to e!JNV which is why I switched to JNV earlier. But no one followed me and I'd rather vote you over TJ (or me, now :P) If I didn't take out TJ, he basically only works with TUN because neither you nor JNV have incentive to vote him earlier in the cycle if you're teamed with him. There's no reason for you or JNV to distance and risk me jumping on it. So I'm essentially down to Aman/JNV JNV/TUN TJ/TUN As the viable 2p teams left. I dislike the thought of voting someone with the low content level of TUN this close to lylo, and I tried to vote JNV but that didn't go anywhere. From my PoV I've seen you and JNV vote similarly and back each other up, so that's what makes the most sense to me right now. I hope that makes my thought process more clear for why I appear to be set on only one option. I think if JNV became an option again this turn I would still go there but as it is, I'm voting you. ...Ninja'd by TUN, I really don't like how his post mirrors my thoughts exactly I feel like that shouldn't be happening >>
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Huh, I like this thought. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that implies e!Devo, no? I don't remember if there were any other strange reactions to the claim that drew any attention. Aman- Decently strong village. Progression and solving amount feels normal, not to mention the huge Archer push he made. Bort- Bad gut, due in part to the post I know Kas dislikes. Striker- I dislike basically every one of his votes but also sympathize with his first post this cycle so idk. Still probably elim but it's hard for me to say that when the reasons against him are the same as the reasons against me. Exp- Pretty strong village. I like how you executed the gambit, especially your level-headed reactions to it. I like how you mentioned your vote switch at the start of this cycle (which is probably NAI, but still) and even though it also is NAI, mathematically, being in the same Empire as Archer you're more likely village than before he flipped (I think that's how the math works, I dislike probability with a passion). This applies to Aman as well but I don't think he needs the help. Not that you really do either. Kas- As I mentioned, I think his late switch from Devo to Archer is villagery. That is, unless you're right about the first thing I quoted, and Devo's elim, so idk. Village for now. Araris- I remember nothing about him except that I thought Bort's bad gut against him was unjustified. Why these people specifically? I know, but I'm choosing to take your word for it since your word matches my initial assumption anyway :P.
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You both first voted TJ and second voted me, so I'm not sure what you're talking about here since you seem to have exactly the same beliefs about who the elim is.
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I'm sad that you think I would play elim this obviously I mean, it kinda does. If that's your working assumption about the votes then that makes the widening of the gap I described a reason that works. I think you picking Archer over Devo at EoD implies v!you unless Devo is an elim with a role that's worth picking Archer over.
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Elims do win at outnumber, not parity, so there's always a chance, technically. A 2-2 next cycle would have a 50% chance of continuing, but if the elims hit a Veteran today it could be 3-2 as well. My whole other point though was that e!TJ has no reason to not just go for xino right there, it's infinitely easier. I was already the main person going after xino so he didn't need to vote Aman to set me up as a fall guy if that's what he wanted to do. Why. Genuinely curious. What I've seen this cycle is Aman and JNV both going after TJ to try to convince me to follow them (Aman in PMs, JNV in the thread) and once it became clear I'm sticking to my guns here both of them swapped over to going after me and trying to get TJ to follow them. That's... not how honest progression works :P.
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You made a 4-3 [Archer/Devo] with an elim in the lead a 5-2 [Archer/Devo] with an elim in the lead (technically 5-3 [Archer/Thaid] and double technically 4-4 [Archer/Thaid], but >> and that's not how the VC right before your post appeared, and I missed Exp's switch as well, so this point might not even be valid anymore depending on how you kept up with the VC) Essentially I came to this conclusion because you (appeared to) widen the gap between a conf elim and a countertrain to said elim. This reads extremely village tonally to me because I absolutely sympathize with it :P. Well, I read Thaid as more evil than Archer or Devo, so I switched :D. Which ages extremely well, I know.
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I didn’t move first, though, at the end of last turn, TJ did. I assume we’re referring to different movements but I don’t know what else you’d be talking about. Yes, that makes sense. But again, TJ voted first, not me, and I didn’t follow so much as move where I felt the best now that it was an option. I guess you could be talking about hold up in the middle of the post but ima say this first and edit in the rest later- @Experience you are not in this game :P. Edit: ninja’d smh Anyway I guess you could be talking about TJ following my suspicion despite literally casting the first vote but I thought it was pretty clear that his reason for Aman was less about Aman and more about me- which sort of fits in your theory but if so then why add in the part about me being evil? To me this makes far less sense then TJ just having a moment of honest progression
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Huh Edit: Missed Kas’ post and onward when making my last one, will go back and look and hopefully make more conclusions than I made last cycle Edit2: Obviously Thaid looks pretty clear, and Striker looks pretty bad as well. I might look the worse coming off of this, which is funny. Aman’s decently clear. Resisting the urge to clear the entire Archer wagon but I… kind of… want to :P. Edit3: I guess I don’t see any motivation for a late bus there. Kas’ vote almost never comes from an elim, I don’t know shadow’s meta but I’m decently sure her vote came lateish when the vote was tiedish. Devo could be an elim with a role but it’s impossible to tell with self pres. Still don’t remember when Exp voted but iirc he looked like not e/e with Archer Edit4: If I had to rank in order of least likely busser to most likely I’d say Aman->Kas->Exp->shadow with Devo as a shrug because self pres
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That makes sense, and is decently obvious in retrospect. I like the level of Empire knowledge that’s making its way into the thread, and suspect my controversial first opinion was a result of me putting approximately two seconds of thought into it, and then hanging onto it for too long. Looks like people are primarily voting Archer for his Aman case which is weird to me but it’s a voting strat that has worked in the past so whatever I guess. Don’t have time to check Exp’s reasoning and I know Devo’s is self pres.
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Thaid
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Again, TJ’s Aman vote last cycle was completely unprompted by me. I had asked his stance on Aman earlier in the cycle but based on the answer I assumed an Aman vote wasn’t really the plan. Precisely Tbh I have a problem following this (commas are underrated ), is this a response to the question of why you wrote a whole paragraph about why TJ’s actions don’t come from an elim and then still voted him anyway? Could you try to clarify this a bit?
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Explain to me how TJs post wasn’t pointing fingers at you and how it’s different enough from me to have you trust him ‘infinitely more’ because it sure looks like he quoted a bunch of reasons you’re elim to me
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I can second this, yeah. Misc thoughts during a thread reskim: Village read of Exp is increasing. It seems like my theory about it being a reaction test is accurate, and Exp's own responses to the responses to his claim are village, imo Also village reading Kasimir but I legally have to say there's room for changing this later >> I don't like Aman immediately voting someone who voted him but eh I still think Thaid's change of playstyle is a bit suspicious but also a playstyle change for the better so /shrug Bort is who I'm getting the most bad vibes from, apart from maybe Striker (see below), mostly due to the post Kas and Araris outlined. Araris I'm more null to but leaning village just due to gut. I still think that both of Striker's votes are pretty opportunistic and I don't like that but I guess it depends on Devo's alignment. I don't think her response to Exp's claim makes sense as a reason to get three votes. Still frustratingly disconnected. C2 will be better.
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Right back at you. I was loosening my paranoia until you started posting walls condemning me I understand the concept, but there's two sides of the coin and for v!you who doesn't know, both should be equally likely. I'm aware of my C3 play, believe me :P. You keep bringing this up as a reason to vote me, but you never mentioned it before. I was high in your village reads until the start of this cycle.
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This is how I've felt the entire cycle :P. Back to Aman. I'm restraining myself from replying to everything Aman's saying because that will be unhelpful, but Trying real hard, yes, with my one edited in vote. I don't get how that's relevant. So what if the others are dead? Someone has to be last, and it's not an outlandish move for the elims to leave one alive to allow for paranoia. Or so they can push this point themselves. e!me does not vote Araris there under any circumstance. e!me pretends to be afk at the end of C1. I'll bus, but not last minute, not with the person being bussed afk, not the voter that gets them killed, 99% of the time. LOL "Confirmed good does not equal confirmed right" That's like, a motto of SE. Doesn't equal confirmed wrong either, but you can't use that as a line of reasoning. You just can't.
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Huh just noticed Aman's post True, but that'd be pretty storming obvious of me, wouldn't it? You're acting like voting you at EoD was my idea xD Regardless, what would e!me have to gain from last minute switching from a villager to another villager? It's the same reason TJ doesn't make sense, why not just let xino go through? Again, Thaid was literally the only person who was consensus village read. He makes sense as an NK. Archer was ascribed to Bort and Stick was also consensus village read. I don't know if I was, but I don't think I was. I could have been left alive because I'm just wrong and in a tunnel, but then who would the team be? Not TJ and you. Not TJ and JNV. Not Orlok in anyone. It would have to be TJ and TUN or JNV and TUN, and TJ doesn't make sense, so do you want me to vote JNV? Assume that TJ switches from villager to villager for no reason right there? It... probably doesn't make sense but you know me >> As I outlined in the previous paragraph, I'm kind of limited as far as PoEs go. I'm not considering Orlok. A two person team is restricting and I almost want to vote JNV for fitting into more possible comps, and his contradictory last post. As much as I do not want to vote v!you, I do not want to not vote e!you. Especially if I've been on the correct track this whole time. But I'm getting tired of fighting you about this, I've made my points :P. Yes. The fourth Araris vote which tied him with Stick last minute comes from an elim, clearly. EDIT: (@Kasimir) No. I can't bring myself to do this right now. I don't know if it's just AtE or what but- no. If Aman is evil, he's probably paired with JNV. If Aman is village, JNV is likely elim anyway.
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Exactly. e!TJ doesn't vote xino and then edit in an Aman vote. e!TJ either ensures xino's death or straight-votes Aman if that's his plan. Moving suddenly to Aman when xino was a shoo-in misexe isn't an elim play. Excuse me if I massively misunderstood your first paragraph, but did you not just reason out that it doesn't make logical sense for an elim to shift the vote right there? Before you do that, what's your thoughts on what you've read so far? Edit: Forgot about the ping whoops I asked him near to the beginning of the cycle if he'd consider voting Aman and he was unsure but leaning towards not, I think. I needed absolutely no convincing to vote Aman, and his Aman vote was unprompted from me but made sense in the context of his progression. TJ's my middle tier at the moment.
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First quote: There's a difference between your trusts voting together and everyone voting together. It was the quantity that was weird to me, and I was wrong about Bort anyway. Second quote: The first line is directly related to the bolded bit, it's just the inverse (I would vote here if I had some townreads back me up). Second line isn't really relevant. Third quote: I stand by that statement; it's irrelevant to the bolded bit. What are those quotes supposed to imply? They seem loosely related at best to the bolded bit.
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Thaid kill makes sense from any elim PoV, imo. They were the only player that was unanimously trusted. Keyword, that I can recall :P. I read your posts and I'm definitely not intentionally lying, I just also can't remember everything you said, or maybe I missed it because of the edit. Still though, as far as saying xino is town that's a pretty discreet way to do so. Three townreads voting someone would imply to me more than I'm on the right track than not, depending on the surety of those townreads. Reading the bolded sentence I honestly don't read that as a defence of xino, so maybe I did see it when you wrote it before.
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Both TUN and Orlok have been on the Shard within the cycle, and could have submitted the kill without posting in thread. That’s not my point, though. My point is that you went for TUN to begin with, and didn’t consider anyone else. The town Aman I know of wouldn’t do that. You say xino did town things but you never said that while he was alive that I can recall. You never seemed opposed to his death, instead just chasing after the side train the whole time, and sure you might not have been online but that isn’t a defense to starting on TUN and staying there, I think
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I could, but that’d be a lie
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Yep.
