Furamirionind

*Cough*Haelbarde*cough* ; )

Yeah, thats why I didn't dive too deep into it. Just wanted it mentioned. Also, I know Wilson is a troll, but a game where all the elims are Edema would just literally not be fun for the elims. So I'm kind of assuming there are limits to her trolli-ness. While we already have proof that not all elims were Edema, I'm just using that as an example. A well balanced Elim team should be able to pick how they play this game, yet the ranks players are given strictly limit what those players can effectively do. I actually didn't realize how detrimental the Noble roleblock was, until talking to a Noble this cycle, and them telling me how it makes the field they went into a lot more risky... edit: Hi Karnage, don't think I don't see you viewing the thread! : P Edit again: Aw, now he seems to have gone offline again. : /

Hmm, it's worth noting the two elims that are dead were Edema and Commoner. While I know all of these were attempted to be balanced (so you could theoretically have an elim team with only Edema Ruh), I don't think that would be reasonable. It would be funny when opening the doc, but it would really suck, and basically force you into playing the game in a specific way. Due to this, I don't think the elims are going to be too concentrated in either Nobles or Edema. This being said, I'm pretty sure it was obvious someone was going to point this out at some point, so there doesn't have to be a noble Elim, for example. They may have thrown a curveball... But I don't think we should completely overlook this either. Now looking at those that have been attacked by the elims: Does this tell us anything? Probably not. Haven't worked that out yet. Definitely shows either that the elims aren't feeling threatened by the Edema, or they have a larger number there so are leaving it alone. I'd guess though that they don't feel threatened. Most/all of the Edema, from what I can tell, dropped out of the university fairly early on to stockpile money. Due to this, they would be behind the curve, and would take a while to catch up.

I have other reasons to think Devotary is village, though technically I don't know what I know is 100% true. xD I wasn't going to say anything, but this post is just to allow you to make another post without double posting (just in case you're working on that post now. Lol

Sorry for the double post. This site is glitching out super bad for me, so this is all it's letting me do. : / Anyways, I just remembered @Karnage's comment about me fishing in PMs, and I'm not letting that go. How would Karnage know this? Just to re-iterate what I asked before, I want to know who told you I'm fishing for info in PMs. I'm going to Araris Stab Vote™ until I get an answer I like. Karnage has also been online since rollover happened, so I am suspicious as to why he hasn't responded to me on this yet. I'll go back and read though Karnage first... Once the site stops glitching out for me. Karnage, Karnage

If... The elims know your first two elevations, maybe you could share with the thread as well? Would definitely make my spreadsheeting a bit easier... =) How do you know he was a physicker? did he prove it? If the elims lost their physicker, that's a pretty big deal... Jeez, I wanted to go into linguistics cause I thought It'd be fun. I didn't actually think it would turn out being this useful for the village. xD Anyways, this makes me inclined to think that Burnt and Araris are both village as well. Araris was already good in my mind, but I was sus on Burnt. So this help. (Still going to look over her stuff myself though) This makes sense. I like that. Eh? I'm funny like that. : P

Lol. Maybe that makes me feel better? We'll see. : P I'm still on the fence about Straw. I just want that reads list before I make judgement...

RIP, if I knew this was the case I wouldn't have bothered to say this in thread. I just would have PMed him. xD I'm going to wait for GM confirmation though. @little wilson @Elbereth

Oh, with Hael dying, I forgot to mention I'm 99% sure CadCom is innocent now... Cool, glad that info is going to help a lot... : / @little wilson @Elbereth Can we PM expelled players if we are attending Imre for the term?

I still think it's quite possible the lie was from the RP. I'd have to look over Bard again (to remember all the details), but I'm getting less convinced he was a skindancer. I lie all the time in these games regardless of alignment, so him lying doesn't necessarily mean he is evil. I'd also like to apologize for trying to shake things up 10 minutes before rollover. It was the first time I truly did any analysis on that cycle, and I don't like not casting my votes. (despite having done that for 2-3 turns so far this game) : / Hael hasn't had much attention for a bit now, so there haven't been a ton of interactions with him that I recall. Votes are probably a good, though limited, place to look. I'm a little confused as to how I got elevated. I clearly misunderstood how the roleblock/elevation lock works, as I didn't think I'd be able to be elevated until next turn. When I'm awake enough to ask the GMs a proper question on how the "elevation-lock" works, I'm going to do that. Also... Seriously? Roleblocked again? Like, GMs, you couldn't have just cheated and expelled me instead? then I'd at least be able to do something. >_> I'm not actually frustrated at all, but I am starting to find it pretty funny. First I pick a field I didn't expect to be as competitive and/or I get unlucky and don't get elevated. Then the moment I get elevated I get roleblocked for 3 cycles... So I still can't use my ability(ies). I think the universe is taunting me with how badly I wanted to be a master. Watch us either end this game (or have me die I suppose) before I can do anything. xDDDD Araris said 3 turns, so I looked at the past three turns. Here were the votecounts for them, made to the best of my abilities: Cycle 3.2 Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2}, Straw{1}, GreenRover{1}, GreenRover{2} CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}, Xino{3}, Xino{4}Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2} , Elkanah{1} Fura(1): CadCom{1} Xinoehp(1): CadCom{2} Cycle 4.1 Zillah(16): Haelbarde, CadCom, CadCom, Haelbarde, Elkanah, Elkanah, Experience, Experience, Karnage, Karnage, Araris, Araris, Devotary, Devotary, Walin, WalinRathmaskal(3) Straw, Straw, StinkStink(2): Xino, XinoCadcom(2): Lopen, Lopen Cycle 4.2 Devotary (5) - Hael, Hael, Elandera, Elandera, Kynedath (4) - Lopen, Lopen, Araris, Araris Fura (2) - Karnage, KarnageStraw (2) - Experience, Experience Experience (2) - Straw, Straw Lopen (1) - Fura Hael (1) - Fura ________________ So those are the votecounts. The people Hael votes on were Kynedath, Zillah, and Devotary. I already thought the two of those that aren't dead are villagers though, so this helps me with literally nothing. Another thing of note, I specifically gave information to the thread last turn to see how people responded while I was preparing my votes. I'm pretty sure I made this clear, but based on how people responded, I was going to change how I voted. Now, while I unfortunately was too busy looking through the game history to see who specifically was online during rollover, I think in addition to those that posted after I said I was spreading the votes, STINK is the only other person I saw online. (Sorry, your name is blue. That's the only reason I saw it xD ) Now, Both Experience's and Straw's last minute votes where very very strange. I think we should look a lot into those. However, we know I voted on an elim, and I think it possible one of them may have been trying to spread out the votes more. I have one more suspicion I don't want to share yet. @Straw @Experience Have you done a player reads list at all this game? Would you mind giving me one pls? Doesn't have to be based on analysis. Gut will suffice. This should be enough to disprove my paranoid theory. : P Ok, pulling back up the votecount for 4.2, when I voted on Hael, the votecount was as follows: Fura (2) - Karnage, KarnageKynedath (4) - Lopen, Lopen, Araris, Araris, Devotary (5) - Hael, Hael, Elandera, Elandera, ExperienceElandera (1) - Experience Lopen (1) - Fura Hael (1) - Fura Here is xino's math for 5 people up for the lynch Not accurate in this situation, but it will be less that what we see here. This does make it clear that Hael was in minimal danger of expulsion, and probably had a 50/50 (or a bit less) chance at getting roleblocked. He definitely would not need to be saved here unless he was in a field where they needed his action, or if all the other elims are all in fields where they need their actions (or are expelled). If either Experience or Straw turns out to be an elim, this should tell us a lot about the composition of the team, though right now I might hazard a guess they are both village... or not... I need those reads lists first. : P Edit: oh, ninjad by a long elandera post. Cool! ED2T: @Elandera Ok, I'm less excited for a long Elandera post now. : P I don't find you particularly suspicious right now, can't remember why, I'll have to go reread 4.1? 4.2? I stopped being so suspicious of you somewhere there... I said if POE narrowed down too much, Id have to re-inspect Araris, so I think I will have to be doing that. Beyond that, I need to re-look at other players in this game. I feel like we are at a very solvable point in the game right now... I'll be much more active this cycle, so don't worry. I'll find a better place for you to put your vote. : P Unless we all want to try keeping me roleblocked until the end of the game? xD

Already explained

Second vote going on Hael. Firmly a neutral read for me all game, and DeTess had their eye on him. Haelbarde Fura (2) - Karnage, KarnageKynedath (4) - Lopen, Lopen, Araris, Araris, Devotary (5) - Hael, Hael, Elandera, Elandera, ExperienceElandera (1) - Experience Lopen (1) - Fura Hael (1) - Fura

The fact that we have people online, who have presumably read that I'm considering spreading the vote, and have not told me off for it, tells me everyone here is uncertain about their votes. This does not strike me as a good sign. My first vote, as promised, is going to Lopen. Still working on the second one. Just reached 3.1 in my quick analysis Lopen

Looking Over what Elandera did, she put in a lot of effort towards analyzing Walin. She also presented everything, which makes it easier for others to analyse these things too. When I was reading these posts over, I started getting suspicious of Lopen as well. Someone who I have been suspecting more and more as the game goes on, and seemed a bit sus to me in out PM a turn or 2 ago. She also picked me out as suspicious, which I don't find suspicious. : ) I'm continuing to look over more people right now, but if I vote on a train, I'm voting on Kynedath, despite agreeing with Lopen it's a wasted lynch. If I spread out votes, one vote will probably be on Lopen (sorry Lopen, I know this is late). If no one else posts after me, I'll keep editing stuff in.

Sorry for not being in-thread this turn. I have had time, so I don't really have much of an excuse. It's most just been me messing our with friends outside the game... Anyways, I'm here for the time being, and am going to try to contribute something. Well, I'm one of 4 people up for the lynch... I think I might actually prefer to be expelled over getting roleblocked again. At least I have an action I can use now. : / Ninja'd by Elandera. Oh... hm... Alright time to look into Devotary again? Something bugged me a bit about our PM this turn... Probably just the minor fear-mongering about Imre... Though I don't really think that to be AI. This line bothers me for some reason as well... Though I'll admit the first time I read it I thought it said, "That almost makes me wonder if Fura..." which is far more suspicious. So I think my issue with the post is more how I read it initially. There are a lot of percentages missing, and the words don't really tell us much about what you think about the players... However I'm pretty sure I saw you do the exact same thing in a village before... So NAI I guess. I normally don't say this about Devotary, but I think this first paragraph is pretty villager-y, and not just because she is defending me (for what it's worth, I normally am suspicious of non-Drakes defending me). The first paragraph's reasoning seems good, and I'm currently somewhat inclined to think this is true. I'm not sure if CadCom is evil or not. I'm not sure about the second paragraph due to the sole reason Devotary in the first p. seemed to be assuming that CadCom isn't an elim, and in the second paragraph she is assuming he is an elim. That being said, I don't recall Devotary doubling back on herself often at all, so It may be more of a villager thing. The only thing that would make me concerned here is if Devotary and Kynedath are on the same team. However, looking back at 3.2, while she voted on the other major lynch (CadCom), she also was trying to get people to consolidate votes, making it more likely for someone to get expelled. I don't think she'd do that if her teammate was leading in the lynch. The last option to lynch is Elandera. However since I did my last analysis of her, I've become less convinced Bard is evil, and by association, less convinced she is. I'm going to post what I have now as there isn't much time left in the cycle, but I'm seriously considering just spreading out the votes, as I'm not sure I like any of these options. Oh, I forgot Kynedath, I should look into him on my own, though Devotary does make good points. Edit: I'm going point out that Straw was under a lot of scrutiny early game, but hasn't been talked about much since. Might be true of other players too, but I just realized this.

I thought I posted my response to you, but I guess not? Anyways, I was asking if you have any reasons for any of your non-me suspicions, but that has already been asked by araris. See, this was going to be the next part of my response. I haven't PMed Karnage at all this game. Clearly there is some inside information somewhere. I will 100% admit to fishing for info in PMs, but I've been doing that less this game due to the PMing restrictions. I'd like to know who's PM you are referring to. : ) Also, I've only fished in PMs 2-3 times all game, so if you lie I'll know. ; ) I can't check the rules as of this moment, however I'm pretty sure I specifically remember that being a banned question. All questions have to be passed by the GMs first, and I think the rules state you can't ask "are you a skindancer?". And yeah, Xino makes the most sense to be a villager, regardless to Bard's alignment.

Well, the plum bobs can't be used to ask if they are skin dancers. I havent put much thought behind them, but the main things I can think of them being useful for are past/future action intentions and field info.

Bard was attacked as well?

Apperantly I didnt vote last turn? Idk if I even remember last turn at all. I think I'm getting the QF and LG confused with each other at this point... I'll try to get my head straight once school is done. CadCom, Stink and Rath all got unlucky. That sucks. Zillah died to the streets, and Walin died to an assassin, meaning that Xino must have been the skin dancer attack. I thought Xino was village before, but @xinoehp512 any idea why you survived?

Hmm... I actually thought that was going to look suspicious as I'm pretty sure halfheartedly defending villagers up for the lynch is something I like to do. (Cant quite remember as it's been a full year since my last elim game :'( ). Granted, CadCom is the only one here who has actually played with me as an elim before so, perhaps only he would have called me out for that. Lol. Well, I village read you early on (I played it off as a joke, but I was serious) for the most NAI thing possible... so I figured I could probably just assume you're village until someone else analyses you well. : P I also realized this game that (at least I think) I have yet to be wrong about your alignment in a game, as I have always village read you, and you have always been village. This kind of makes me trust my read of you a bit more, despite it not meaning anything. XD You think Elkanah will give more info than the person who escaped the lynch twice?

Honestly, I really struggle with read/player analysis, as I'm really good at picking at innocent things to make them look suspicious, bot not great at really pulling out suspicious things on their own... A Joe in the Bush - I'm getting a bit nervous of Joe. Joe's first post, all NAI content. Quotes Rae, but it's not particularly useful in determining alignment. Next post. The vote count here was: Mist (3): Brightness, Sart, KidpenBrightness (1): The_God_KingThe_God_King (1): Elbereth Karnage(1): Drake Still NAI, especially as they didn't place a vote. Ok, I've actually completely forgotten why I was suspicious of Joe. I like their content this cycle, and even if they were my best suspicion, I might refrain from voting on them just because this is the first cycle with significant content. However I was thinking a Rae/Joe/TGK elim team might work pretty well. I don't remember what got me thinking that though... so take it with a grain of salt. : / Sart - Village Started their post C1 when I was tied with Rae with 3 votes, and was arguing against my lynch. Also could have rewritten their post to be suspicious of Kidpen to tie Rae's vote, but didn't do that either. Zillah - Inactive Megasif - Strong Village Pretty confident is village. Was the second vote on Rae, and broke the 6-way voting tie in her favor. This was the votecount before he voted on Rae: Xino(1): CadcomJoe(1): SartSart(1): TGKFura(1): FuraArraenae(1): BR Drake(1): Xino There are too many people here that are options for Mega to vote on other than Rae. In addition, he hedged a bit on Rae's lynch, giving him the perfect oportunity to jump ship if she posted again. These are the remaining people I haven't gone through... But my reads are mostly neutral-village, which is pretty uncharacteristic for me, so I'm not sure. I'm quickly losing motivation for analysis though, so if I continue, it's going to take me a lot longer to post this... So I'm just going to post as is for the moment, and come back later... Again... Lord_Silberfarben - Silber Kidpen - Aradia Elbereth - Crepuscula The_Archivist - Archer CadCom - Patience DrakeMarshall - Verity Amanuensis - Nok the Bard

Yeeeeeaaaaaaahhh

My assumption was that it wasn't random, but for some reason she doesn't want to share yet. I do that sometimes anyways... I disagree. I think I've done my distancing much better than that. : P Are you saying I'm not contributing enough or you are looking forwards to my analysis post? Both are fair, just wondering. =) I've faked misunderstandings before due to people often considering it clear-able (including myself). Idk what misunderstandings you are talking about, but I wouldn't put it past El to fake these things either. I'll keep my eyes open for what you are referring to when I look at El. I'm pretty sure Zillah is going to die to the filter... Copying someone else's vote, specifically without providing your own reasoning. Edit: Though Mega provided his own reasoning, he is still primarily voting on Zillah because you did first. Hence, sheeping. Edit again: Just an update about my analysis, will be coming soon-ish. I have one more chore I'm supposed to do, but to do it, I have to pass through a swarm of bees, which I am deathly afraid of so... Trying to deal with that a bit. xD

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah (Idk why I find this so funny... It's not that funny... but it is...) I'm not suspicious of Aman either, though I will mention that my first game with Aman he was evil, and inactive until the last 1-2 cycles of the game. Like, Aman would never intentionally go inactive as an elim, but I don't think he would as a villager either, so... I'm still pretty neutral on him. 0.0 You know what, I'll... Nah, I'll do my own work instead of sheeping copying your vote. : P @The_Archivist I'm wondering why you kept voting on me? If I remember right, this is the first cycle you've voted on someone other than me. xD Karnage - slight elim A couple posts hitting some red flags for me, but I can't yet explain why... So I guess I'll call this a gut read until I have time to work out why I'm sus on him. Elkanah - Neutral? Leaning villlage? That's a strange post. Other than that I like them. Inclined to think they are village, though idk. The_God_King - Village Seems to have a village mindset. Voted on CadCom last cycle. Lord_Silberfarben - Profile page isn't loading on my computer, so I'll resume here when I finish my homework. xD Since I essentially promised a vote, the only elim read so far is Karnage, so I'll have to put my vote there. Karnage

I mean, STINK, in this game a single vote on someone can get them expelled, even if others have more votes, if they are unlucky... So... It's kind of a big deal : P