Furamirionind

Alright, well I can't say for sure that Devotary is good, but thanks to her I contacted Stick about giving her Binoculars to someone else... so... I'm going to claim responsibility for there still being Binoculars in play, even though it probably had nothing to do with me. : P Sart was... evil... So... um... D1 was a strange lynch I suppose. Now I shall go through all the players that discussed the Sart lynch on D1: Players pushing for Sart lynch: DeTess, Venture Players against the Sart lynch: Stick, Kynedath, Elandera, Devotary, Striker Voted for other parties: Joe I think Venture is probably village due to this. Elim!Venture likely never would have voted on Sart that late in the cycle, putting him in the lead, and adding a lot of momentum to that lynch. I'm kind of facepalming now as I jumped from the Sart lynch because I thought it was V/V because no one was defending Sart. Looking back at it though... There was actually quite a push to get Sart out of the lead... I think I might have gotten ninja'd... but still. In the spoiler, you will find a post by post analysis of Sart's lynch. As I said in the spoiler, I will be voting on Striker this cycle, but Devotary might be a close second, and I might switch. I will be voting for one of those two however. Striker

need to change the ">" to "]"

Well, if DeTess is pocketing me... She is doing a terrific job, as I still think she is village. : P Edit: I voted on Venture as he is the only one online... However, as it seems everyone is happy about this lynch right now, I'll switch my vote to Elandera (just for the sake of it) as I think she is more likely to be an elim. I know she is busy, however, that doesn't mean she isn't an elim. Devotary hasn't seemed like an elim to me in our PM. Venture I'm mostly neutral on... But the kill target would point towards someone in the community much longer. All this would point towards Elandera. Kynedath (1): Elandera Twibanu (2): StrikerEZ, Venture Elkanah (1): DeTess DeTess (3): CadCom, Stick, Kyndedath Elandera(1): Twibanu Venture Elandera

And what about all the other unconfirmed people? Kynedath (1): Elandera Twibanu (1): StrikerEZ, Venture Elkanah (1): DeTess DeTess (1): CadCom, Stick First of all, I trust DeTess. I also seem to be the only person defending her... Which makes me a bit uncomfortable. In addition, she is really good at distancing, and not to put myself on a pedestal, but my most recent games as an elim in LG54, 55, and on MU, I was told my distancing was pretty good. If the two of us were elims, I feel like it wouldn't be quite so obvious. The people with unconfirmed actions are: DeTess, Sart, Venture, Elandera, Devotary, Kidpen, and myself. One of these people is probably an elim. I think DeTess and Sart are village, and I don't think Kidpen would have submitted the kill. That leaves Venture, Devotary, and Elandera. Out of these people, I'll vote on Venture. Venture Edit: Oops, ninja'd and doesn't include my vote... and not updated Kynedath (1): Elandera Twibanu (2): StrikerEZ, Venture Elkanah (1): DeTess DeTess (3): CadCom, Stick, Kyndedath Venture(1): Twibanu

If we are both elims, why would we both have unconfirmed actions? Venture also has an unconfirmed action, as does Sart, Devotary, Elandera, and Kidpen. This is too many people to all be elims... And beyond that, there can only be one damning unconfirmed action per cycle. The rest of the elims would be taking actions just like the village. One of the people with unconfirmed actions is an elim. But we can't say more than that are.

So, I didn't take any action because I don't have an item to protect, and I wanted to wait until I had some reads before I stole from anyone... Then I promptly forgot I could steal from people as I got caught up in the rollover voting between Sart and Coda. Is the info not public knowledge? partly.

Exactly. AND I don't think any of us know exactly how the time away counter actually works. If you just walk away from your computer for an hour but leave it running, does it mark you as away or online? What if you have it up on your phone but turn it off? What if it is up on your computer, but you are on a different webpage? I mentioned when I originally shared my findings, that this method of analysis is flawed, and this is why. None of us know what those numbers truly mean. and... i think the game is more fun this way. Being able to find elims on meta, should never be a thing. Lynching based on when someone was last online sucks, it isn't fun for me, and it definitely isn't fun for the lynchee. This is why places like MU don't have a counter for when someone was last online. If we all agree to log offline and not show up for a cycle, then if someone died, we kill the only person to log on during that cycle. I don't think stuff like that is a good idea.

If DeTess and I were on an elim team, I'd ask to post first to dispel these things about me. I know these sort of comments don't help *too* much, but Striker's vote is an attempt to get me to explain myself. Something I wouldn't need a teammate to save me from. Anyways, I'm a little miffed that Joe lied to me... But as I lied to him, I suppose that serves me right. I didn't take an action last night, and when Joe asked in thread if anyone else Stole from Striker, I PMed him telling him that I did. I gained some info that I otherwise wouldn't have gotten, so I'm pretty happy about that. Granted, I did trust Joe's word that he wouldn't share the identities of those that contacted him. - _ - If we are to lynch one of the three, I think Elkanah is the best choice, but I don't think information lynches are very fun in general. And I don't think it will gain us that much info. CadCom would be a more informative information lynch... But again, see the above sentence. EDIT: I can confirm that this is exactly what I’ve been told by these players, except for Twibanu, who I haven’t talked to in PMs since last cycle. I can confirm that I have claimed both. : P ED2T: (Yes, I'm copying Aman) @DeTess If Kidpen is going to die today anyways, lets use that as our method of finding out if all three are evil. If Kidpen flips evil, then we can kill Elkanah, and then decide if CadCom is the right person to kill. If Kidpen flips village, we know our logic is flawed.

Your belief in this analysis is based on the premise that Elims wouldn't want to kill the lynch target. If they would never let that happen, that would mean that none of them were online over rollover. If that is the case, the full elim team is CadCom, Elkanah, and Kidpen (who hasn't been online in over 48 hours). If you adamantly believe that to be the case, I think Kidpen would be a better lynch. The alternative to that is that there may have been 1 or more elims online that either forgot about the kill, or didn't care. If that is the case, as many as all of them could have gotten online before rollover. If this is the case, the elims could still be anyone, and we are really tunnelling on something that means nothing. Personally, I see the second as significantly more likely. I'd love to hear your thoughts though. And just to be clear, there absolutely could be an elim in those three. If there is, CadCom is the one I'd be least willing to lynch. Elkanah technically was last online in the sweet spot of late enough to reasonably submit the kill, and early enough to miss the voting... Or maybe the elim left 17S running and walked away from their computer, so the website thought they were online... Or maybe they did this intentionally just to mess with our heads (which, would be a great idea I must say). I think there are just too many factors.

So... I originally found that, assuming that elims couldn't change the previous kill target, it would make the most sense that whoever submitted the kill wasn't online. That left the players Kidpen, Elkanah, & CadCom (completely due to him outing himself as having not been online, as I couldn't have proven it without him saying so). However, now that we know that other elims could change the first elim's kill order, all of that analysis on time is completely useless. I don't really suspect CadCom right now, and idk about Elkanah... but I do suspect that people pushing this idea a bit more now. Particularly people who haven't really gone after anyone in particular or subtly just encouraged people going down this rabbit hole... Such as myself xD Edit: I just realized, if I was an elim, which I totally and completely am not... But if I was, and if Kynedath was my teammate, I would be really proud of my defense of them I just posted. I mean, I'm not proud of the defense I just posted, because it isn't a defense of them at all... Just if it was, I'd be very happy with myself xD Ed2t: Though... If it had been a defence, I probably should have posted this either before Elandera's most recent one, or after a couple more people posted... You know... To distance it from the idea of Kynedath a bit... See? Proof this isn't me being evil! : P

... I'm busy right now... but that... I feel like we might be able to solve the game on that? Seems pretty big.

Ok, so I don't have much time right now, but I'll try to do this really quick as it has to be done now before more people get online (thx CadCom : P ) The turning point on the Coda lynch was probably Devotary's vote... About 2 hours ago, but it's more like 2.5 now, I think. Last online: This singles out Kidpen, Elkanah, and CadCom (as he basically admitted he should be singled out, thx!) Out of these people, Kidpen was last online before most elim teams would have sent the order in. Most of the time, they wait some time to get the feel of the players... That actually puts Elkanah kind of in the exact place where they were online late enough to reasonably place the order, yet early enough not to see the switch to Coda. People who have been around SE for a long time have a tendency to attack lower active players D1/2 as well, and Elkanah's first game was LG15... However, I don't know exactly how this thing works... So I wouldn't trust it too much. And meta analysis is fun... but just as often inaccurate as accurate. Well, I personally think my vote jumping was 100% justified. Sart's is interesting. Probably NAI though. Very true. However, if Sart isn't an elim, then Devotary, Striker, and myself are also probably villagers, as we would have more insentive to vote for Sart (the not kill target), over Coda. Even Stick would probably be a villager as she was online near rollover, and could have switched her vote (though I'm less confident about her, I think). I have more to say, but I'm out of time.

:facepalm:

I don't want a no lynch either... So I'll solidify this one. Sorry Coda. Sart Coda

I was just about to remove my vote for Sart because there was no push to get Sart out of the lead... But then there was a push to put Coda in the lead, and now I'm conflicted. Either way, I think this is probably v/v but idk. Lol

@StrikerEZ why didn't you say anything in support of Sart previously or in our PM?

I think your suspicion on me is primarily due to my vote on Venture. Really quickly on that, I have played in two games where there was a no-lynch D1, and in those games it still felt like whoever we lynched D2 wasn't going to be able to play the game, so really imo, the question then becomes do we kill someone early so 2 players don't play all that much (C1 lynch and C1 elim Kill), or wait until C2 so that 3 players don't play much (C1&2 kill and C2 lynch). Also, I felt like we were running out of meaningful things to discuss on C1, and votes are definitely something meaningful no one had done yet. I'm not quite sure where you are getting I'm trying to defend Sart. I thought it was pretty clear I didn't like his vote sheeping mine. I was also pretty suspicious of Stick until I just read her response to my post, which I think is pretty villager-y... Wouldn't mind hearing something from @Sart though. It has been 13 hours since he has been online, but he should have had time to see my post questioning his vote though. I'll move my vote to Sart for the moment, and there are a couple players who should be able to confirm this is not coming out of thin air from me as well... If that means anything : ) Venture Sart Edit: Would someone mind doing a vote count? I'm pretty sure Sart is now in the lead with 2 votes... Venture should have one, and apparently Coda has 1?

@_Stick_ I would have to read through Codas posts from other games to be sure, but I'm pretty sure they say stuff like that pretty often. Also, I hardly think the discrepancy between actual points gained and amount they say, is AI. If they were an elim, and they made that mistake, it is almost certainly a mistake as we can see for ourselves that it's not the case. Same for a villager. Also, I think your statements also support the Sart lynch. The thing is, we were halfway to rollover with no votes. So clearly elims werent just sticking their votes "anywhere". You also said that elims can get away with putting their votes anywhere, meaning conflicting with your following statement that due to this, they would create their own lynch. Also, is your argument against the part lynch that he wouldnt vote on one of his own, so he wouldnt vote on Venture? Which is implying both that Venture and you are elims (with or without Sart). Also, ignoring that part, if elim!Sart voted for someone else, then the lynch would still be open for adding new people into the conversation. If there is a clear vote leader, people will often stop trying to lynch other people. If Sart has a teammate in the conversation that isnt Venture, it is in his best interests to vote on the only person with a vote.

Being laid back isn't inherently a bad thing. However... It was more that I think your post made it seem to me that you weren't concerned at all. Does that make sense? Elims aren't too scared of the lynch (especially early) as they have teammates to get them out of it, they aren't scared of being killed, as there are few ways for them to die at night, and it is statistically unlikely. Basically, I think I saw that mentality in your post... But Why are you sheeping me?

Sure, but it doesn't take much to convince me not to vote on you D1... : P Well, I don't think you are disagreeing as much as you imply from the words "I disagree" : P However, I think there are different ways of reading the post. I read it as a preliminary analysis post, with initial thoughts on the game after the game started. I tend to make half thought out or rushed posts at the beginning of games, so I kind of give people leave for that. CadCom typically also does quite a bit of analysis in general, so I am kind of expecting him to go into more detail soon. I'd rather not kill him before he has the chance to do that. Good points. Alright, I never like C1 lynches as I always feel bad for whoever is lynched. However, I think I have procrastinated enough on putting down a vote. I have my list of people I will not vote for, so I'm going to vote for @Butt Ad Venture (whose name is no longer an Ookla?). Venture's single post this game seemed far too laid back in my opinion. kind of like he wasn't concerned about the items or elims at all. Venture

I was thinking the smoke bomb was infinite use, with it being one use, that makes a lot more sense... And makes it a lot worse. In that case, I could totally see an elim starting with one... Generally not *super* useful though, I think. I don't think anyone has cast a vote yet, and we have almost completed the first 24 hours of the cycle. Striker's posts in-thread I found off-putting, and I would probably be casting my vote on him had he not PMed me. In our PM, he sounded pretty pure, though It's only C1. DeTess seems like herself. I'm not planning on voting on her this cycle. I always like seeing people analyzing potential game length and scenarios, and CadCom does good analysis. CadCom's head feels like it is in the right place. Quick disclaimer, I'm going pretty much off gut for probably the first half of this game or so. I'm just too busy to do otherwise. Elkanah - Haven't played with them before. seems to have a village mindset. That's all. And those are my thoughts on players for the moment.

Should have asked in our PM xD. Did not expect this Lol Have fun! ... I thought it came out tomorrow... But whatever : )

Kinda too tired to respond to everything I'd like to, but yeah, turn 7 is the earliest a gun can get used. Made a mistake about turn 8. Not super important, but could be later. Also, I just spent 5 minutes trying to @ Cadmium Compounder, just to find CadCad actually shortened his name... lol I really am tired. Anyways, @CadCom You think the elims will start with a smoke bomb? If that was the case, that elim would just always submit the kills and the binoculars would never have a chance of catching them. I think this would make sense if the binoculars were in the black market, or are at least prevalent, as this would indicate the primary use of the binoculars is to see peoples actions and not the elim kill. However, if that *is/was* the case, I would expect fewer smoke bombs (or possibly none at all) in the black market, as the more in circulation, the more meaningless the binoculars are. Does that make any sense? I'll probably reread it in the morning and need to clarify.

Emphasis mine. So technically cycle 7 is the earliest the gun comes into play, assuming no one currently has one. : P Also, @BrightnessRadiant, Does purchasing from the black market come before or after stealing in the OoA? (even though it isn't an action) Edit: oops, posted early. And Sorry BR, I have some more questions... So, 15 players. That means likely 2-3 elims. I would assume 3 as of right now as one of the elims wont be using items while the entire village can use them. Looking at all the items: Gun - one time use, may kill any player you target unless they're protected by the vest 15 player game with 2 dying per cycle gives us a maximum game length of 7 turns. Since we cant use a gun from the black market until Turn 8, I think it might be more of a tool to prevent the game from stalling. As guns are 1 time uses, I think there is a decent chance one is floating around somewhere, but not more than one. If someone has a gun early in the game, they are close to guaranteed to be a Villager. Also, if you fire a gun, I can't think of a reason for a villager not to publicly claim that you did so? The gun is destroyed after use, so there is no particular target put on your head. Bullet proof vest - one time use, protects against any attack excluding the lynch (passive ability but if activated by an attack it will cancel out your other action if you took one) As it is a passive ability, there are probably less of them than if it was an active ability. There are two available to purchase, and it will take at least 3 turns to buy one. I am similarly thinking that there will be 2 floating around. As the elims have a faster maximum rate they can collect points, and the low chance of shooting them early in the game, I wouldn't expect them to start with these in the game, though it is possible. Knife - wounds a player of your choice, blocking their action for that cycle (may be used once per round) This I am less certain about. 10 available for 3 points means that these are a near limitless supply. I would expect at least 1 player to start with one of these. Probably village, but could go either way. Binoculars - may spy on a player's action, seeing whom they targeted and with what action (may be used once per round) Both the elim kill and the gun will show up as an attack if the binoculars spot it. It will not specify which one it was. These are extremely powerful. The fact that they show who the player targeted means that you see someone attacking someone else, you can make a very good guess as to if they are evil or not. This is mirrored through there not being any of these in the black market. There will likely be one person with this *at most*. So if you have one of these, please try not to die : P (If there is more than one, I would personally predict that the elims started with the second one... But I don't think that is particularly likely) These will likely not produce consistent results past turn 4, as elims are able to receive Smoke Bombs at the end of turn 3. Smoke Bomb - You cannot be observed with Binoculars. Using this doesn’t consume your action. So... as far as I can tell, this item only helps elims. But if anyone can think of any other reason for it to exist, please correct me. There might be a villager that starts with this item, but it doesn't really matter. I expect the elims will want one or two of these once turn three comes around Is someone able to spend their action to pass their item to someone else? Strongbox - Cannot be stolen. You can store one item in the Strongbox. That item cannot be stolen while in the Strongbox. Putting an item in a strongbox does count as an action, but the item is still available for use on following cycles even if it is in the strongbox. This item is cool, and 20 in the Black Market means we shouldn't run out. i don't particularly think this means anything though. At least not as of right now. Is a player allowed to pass a Strongbox? What if the box has an Item in it?

Sometime tomorrow I presume? I know BR was predisposed today.