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Furamirionind

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  1. Furamirionind
    Araris Valerian - Village Seems to be actively trying to solve the game. Accurately calls out players for major/minor missteps, sometimes votes on them sometimes not. Reads on players seem to change understandably from a village perspective based on the state of the game and other player's posts. Ventyl - Elim As of writing this, Ventyl is actually now my highest suspicion. Devotary of Spontaneity - Slight Village I'm going to say Devotary is slight village, but if Ventyl flips evil Devotary will move to slight elim. FlyingBooks - ELIM Tied for me with Ventyl as extremely suspicious. If Books flips evil, kill Condensation/Jester next depending. Lotus - Village Full disclosure I only skimmed through Lotus's posts, as most are nonsense. However, I think she's mislynch bait. My sole reasoning is I've gone pseudo-insane several times in these games (great examples LG55 for evil, and MR35 for village). As an elim, I start out kind of wacky, but get more and more focused on game stuff and reasoning. The insane part goes into the doc, because you need to be careful not to be insane and get lynched for it in thread. As a villager there's no outlet for the insanity, so it goes all in thread. I think that's what's happening to Lotus. The game started and they were trying to play, but they just kinda... went insane. Ok. I have 5 more to do hopefully before rollover, but this is enough to put a vote down at least. (Edit: Still need to do Condensation, Vasher, Jester, Alv, Eternum) Connie Ventyl
  2. Furamirionind
    Even though I don't truly trust Alv... I'd be cool with this Gears - Neutral... Maybe slight village Pretty busy, so has very little content... Said he'd be busy before the game started so this doesn't mean anything. I like this post: Even though it's missing a lot of important information that makes it difficult to read, it feels like Gears is trying to solve the game... However the list of people they want to cast suspicion on at the end is suspicious because it has a double standard in it. It's suspicious of Eternum and Devotary for giving "no reasoning" when it doesn't put Quinn in there... Despite me finding this normally suspicious... On the flip side, Quinn was a villager, so it's unlikely an elim would do something obviously suspicious to protect a villager. More likely he wrote this quickly, hence the issues I have with it... That being said, that could mean it was a decent elim post with major flaws, or a decent village post with major flaws... SfS - Village Honestly no idea about SfS... I'd probably give slight village. On first read it felt like he was actively trying to deny the village information, but he's actually given some good ideas and thoughts that no one else has. Perhaps this is an elim sign as typically you don't see players with similar posting styles contributing a ton of new stuff to the thread... but I'm not about to elim read him for a horrible meta reason like that. Lol In addition, in his defense of himself he has been a bit aggressive... which draws attention to himself. Lastly, he has had a lot of suspicion on him for the past cycle or two, and no one has said anything in his defense... He reminds me of Ark honestly. Mist - Neutral We'll have to see what happens from here on out. Coming out swinging but then backing off would normally be a sign of an elim, but she's a pinch hitter, and I think in that context it could just as easily be a sign of being village. Kings_Way - Neutral Has added very little original content. The only original thing is: Which ended up being incorect... However he he is casting suspicion on Connie. If Connie is a villager, this looks suspicious being the only content he has given. If Connie is an elim... He's probably not an elim. He's also one of the few people in this game actively thinking about secrets despite being minimally active. This makes him a prime target for possibly being a secret himself. Windrunner - Neutral Literally no content. Only post is saying he hasn't read the thread yet. It's times like this I kind of wish we didn't have pinch hitters and people just died for being inactive... The downside with pinch hitters is we have a player that we have a D1 amount of info on... but on D4... Kind of sucks. Lol Stink - Village I don't trust my ability to read Stink as an elim in the first place... but he's been playing exactly how he normally does in our games as village. He's been adding content (though typically indirectly) and has been having a very similar experience as me this game... So I'd rule him as village barring more information. After working on this for a couple hours, I'm going to take a break and post this. It's not really a ton of content. I started going down the list but started feeling a tad overwhelmed, so I just did the easy ones first. Just a note though, these are my content-based-reads. After integrating and modifying my gut reads based on this, Through PoE I do believe at this moment in time my pick for an elim team would be Connie, Ventyl, Jester, maybe Devotary... Though you could switch out either Jester or Devotary with a couple other people. Of course, this is subject to change once I complete my content reads, as I havent done those for any of those listed as likely elims. Lol EDIT: Whoops, didn't realize I was double posting. Been a bit and probably worth the notification though.
  3. Furamirionind
    A Freudian slip is basically like, saying something that unintentionally reveals something about you. Working on my post... I'm 3 people into it lol
  4. Furamirionind
    Hey everyone... So idk how much I'm going to be active this cycle... I'll put my reads out and then I may just let you all kill me after that. Like honestly, I'm cool with people being suspicious of me, and I'm used to people finding my playstyle kind of suspicious, but I'm not used to people being so reactionary. There were a couple overly reactionary people in my championship game on MU, and the way my elim team responded to them is we said they were village. We let other vilagers say those people were sus, and when they said that, the reactionary players tried to take over the thread and get one of the two people lynched... I think being reactionary kind of detracts from the game and discourages analysis. Instead of doing real analysis, people just say, "You're voting on a person I trust so you must be evil"... But you're forgetting I don't have your information. In fact, none of you have shared either publicly or in my PMs why I should trust Connie. Due to this, as Connie is my highest suspicion, I am obligated as a villager to push for my highest suspicion. If I am given reasons to trust her, that's great. Maybe she wont be my highest suspicion anymore. But if I'm not given that information, then there she stays. Matrim was a neutral. Without knowing his wincon we cannot know if he was genuinely trying to solve the game or not. Even if we assume he was genuinely trying to solve the game, he wouldn't care as much as a villager due to his win not revolving around it, and therefore there might be some issues with his analysis or whatever. We couldn't before, and we still can't take his word as law. Also going to throw out there... I'm a PM player. When I play these games, I like to PM people and through those try to tease out information and manipulate people... To differing extents as village/elim. This is the first ever game I've been in where I will ask whoever has the power to open PMs, to not open them anymore. They are actually detracting from the information the village has, because all we've got from them is a circle of players that have cleared each other for some reason and wont tell anyone, and we outside that circle have no reason to trust any of them. MMmm I am not completely sure what you mean here. Or maybe I wasn't clear? The number of kills I was talking about was the number of Chana kills. I said 1 was worse than two because whether Chana kills once or twice, we have the same number of lynches either way. If we have the same number of lynches, it would be better for a villlage Chana to get more kills in because that's a net gain of village directed deaths, meaning a greater chance of hitting an elim. In short, in debating the second kill: If she doesn't, we better lynch correctly. If she does, either we better lynch correctly or she needs to hit an elim. Either will do.
  5. Furamirionind
    Cool so uh... Why do you mildly suspect Gears? Why do you suspect SfS? Why do you think Books is village? Why do you think Lotus is evil? Why do you think Jester is evil? Sorry for just prodding you like this, but this has basically been the discussion this cycle and I don't have the time to add something new. There's no way I'm getting my analysis done in 2 hours. I would specifically like to hear reads lists from @Ookla the Grammatical, @Ookla the Sprinkle, and @Ookla the Larkin. I also wouldn't mind some thoughts from @Eternum in case he dois tonight as well. He's on my short list for likely deaths tonight.
  6. Furamirionind
    Hmm... ok yeah... Since neutrals don't count for parity, 4 would make the most sense and be most likely. I'll drop the idea there might be 6, but I'll still keep 5 as worst case scenario.
  7. Furamirionind
    23 players left in this game. 19 alive. Maximum 6 possible elims. That leaves 11 village, 2 neutral, 6 elims. Going to go through every cycle and look at how close we are to losing. I will be assuming Chana kills most of the time. 6 elims With 5 elims: With 4 elims (cause their roles are powerful): TLDR: I believe 5 elims to be the most likely. This means we have between 1-2 mis-lynches left depending on how much Chana chooses to kill. With 6 elims we have 0 mislynches unless Chana doesn't kill anymore, and with 4 elims we have between 1-3. The more I think about this game the less likely 6 seems as it would be rather unbalanced with Nightblood and the radiant roles... So I don't want anyone freaking out. I feel fairly safe in that we have a mislynch left. I don't know if I'll have time for a full player by player analysis tomorrow. Have a lot of homework to do. But I'll try to get it done by the day turn if Im still alive.
  8. Furamirionind
    . . .
  9. Furamirionind
    Yeah just completely ignore it this is right, im blind. This is why I don't do vote counts
  10. Furamirionind
    Furamirionind (4): Ventyl, Condensation, Vasher 212, JesterLavorre JesterLavorre (4): Furamirionind, Matrim's Dice, Quinn0928, Quinn (4): Eternum, STINK, Alvron, Devotary Lotus (1): Araris Valerian EDIT: Didn't ad Devotary's vote wow
  11. Furamirionind
    I'm not a big fan of ties... but you're to cute to say no to soooo... /shrug xD
  12. Furamirionind
    Ok... that's fair... I'm less suspicious of you now, but as I didn't have a read on you before, I'm going to still mark you as sus. =)
  13. Furamirionind
    I trust that he trusts you. I don't trust that he is right. If you want to reread old games, you'll find many where the elims win because people trust a villager's wrong reads. Personally, I typically find it suspicious when people read me as village... And this is why it's suspicious. If everyone active thinks you're a villager, then either elims think you're a villager (meaning that from a non-you perspective you might be evil), or the elims are all inactive. I never bet on the latter early in a game. Also, even if everyone in the game village read you... that doesn't make you village... edit: Yeah, look at old games with Aman... and then when he flips evil he brings the entire game down with him xD
  14. Furamirionind
    If Eturnum's interpretation of Quinn's mistake was correct, that is a mistake that can justify a lynch. It is indirectly claiming elim. The game after my championship game on MU had a player that posted in the main thread something along the lines of, "Great job [elim name] misdirecting [villager name]. I think we should kill [villager name] next". This is also a mistake. One that is also lynchable. (just more overt) Granted if he misread then obviously it's not lynchable lol. Edit: Please remember to only use blue text for out of game talking. What if Eturnum is an elim and trying to use that to mislynch you?
  15. Furamirionind
    This is sus to me. Adds next to no content and over explains a (reluctant) vote on me... which I was assuming was going to be made... But instead they are pushing their vote off to later... Another thing elims like to do. same... It's weird my reads list is literally the same as Araris's on the previous page. Was unsure about Araris, but either I'm so incredibly misguided that I have the same reads as an Elim, or we're both village... I'm more inclined to think the second. Ishar did not adhesion anyone. Alright. So just going to throw out there that I'm pretty sure Connie dying gives far more information than me dying. You say you don't know about Connie, yet you're going to vote on someone you are sure about? That's not village behavior. Mat is probably village, but not mechanically confirmed. Let's be careful not to unconditionally trust him. Also... villagers can be wrong or pocketed... Just going to throw that out there as people seem to be saying we need to assume Mat's information/reads are correct. Oh, ninja's by Eternum saying the same thing. Lol. If either Eturnum or Araris turn out to be an elim... Well... I guess I must be more out of practice than I thought. Since for some reason again Connie isn't on the table to be lynched, I'll switch my vote to Sprinkle, and I'll see who becomes a viable lynch target later. Also not a big fan about how the train on me started with someone voting on me because I suspect them, and then a bunch of people sheeping. I normally don't criticize my own trains, but this doesn't feel village to me. Connie Sprinkle
  16. Furamirionind
    Very. xD Mmmmm... I mean, just going to throw out there that people voting on people that are voting on them, and for no other reason, is very sus to me... I know you said it's normal for you, and I've also noticed some other people doing it... but I am just throwing it out there. Personally if I had Ishar's blade I'd probably claim to 1-2 people I trust, and then prove it, and ask them to claim for me tomorrow. Ishar's blade is also one of the scarier ones in Elim hands, so if I still had it on me I wouldn't claim in thread. Similarly, if someone counter claimed in thread and said it was stolen from them, as an elim I'd probably kill them tonight as the chances of Eternum and this person not being in contact, yet Eturnum claiming the exact scenario that actually happened to someone is very very unlikely unless Eturnum is the stone shaman... Which there is a 1/13 chance of (assuming 6 elims) I struggle analyzing Devotary as the only way for me to read her is to read far too far into her messages, which also has a high risk of overanalyzing. I do find it a little suspicious that devotary here is implying that someone should counter claim eternum if he's lying.
  17. Furamirionind
    I just remember that one game we played where you were semi active, but night killed elims something like 3 nights in a row. xD
  18. Furamirionind
    Yeah, that's why I put the idea in the thread instead of PMing you. I was thinking about if you could have it... And... I'm pretty sure if you did you'd have gotten in contact with Ishar to kill every cycle xD
  19. Furamirionind
    Alright, well we know either Chanarach killed one of them, or a neutral did... Or one in the same... I don't see much of a reason why a villager would kill either of them, as Illwei was fairly well trusted, and TJ just... wasn't very suspicious imo. I think that if someone wanted to kill a neutral, Illwei wouldn't be a bad target based on in-thread interactions. But that doesn't sound like a village thought, and I'd have to do more digging for info on the neutrals, but from what I do know that doesn't seem quite right to me. I think TJ was probably killed either by someone who wanted to start getting rid of lesser active players (unlikely as Gears would have been a better choice), or someone who specifically wanted a blade, and knew TJ had one somehow. This is more likely in my opinion. I feel like this is a neutral, because barring the horror of Alv having Chanarach's blade, I don't think the wielder would feel compelled to go around killing for more blades. : P ...Unless people actually thought TJ was suspicious? I havent been online most of the day so am not sure what happened earlier I guess. Doesn't change much though. Just going to throw out there that it's interesting someone with a blade has died every cycle. I shouldn't be getting on tomorrow, as I have a final that I meant to complete today (that I didn't) due then. Ninja'd Just going to throw out there, Connie is still super suspicious, has strong connections to a couple of people that are also suspicious for me, escaped a lynch, and has not had much conversation on them since they escaped the lynch... Connie/Grammar
  20. Furamirionind
    The same as what's in the writeup. Pre-vote manip is just one added vote onto Ventyl and Quinn. This means both Ishar's blade and Kaladin's powers were used Ookla the Shadowed / Experience (4): Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice, Flyingbooks42, Lotus, Quinn0928 Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl (3): Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian, Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei, Furamirionind, Ookla the Grammatical / Condensation Quinn0928 (1): STINK, Ookla the Shadowed / Experience Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian (1): Somebody from Sel Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade Furamirionind (1): Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl Gears (1): Quinn0928 TJ Shade (1): Ookla the Hypodecadal / Devotary of Spontaneity
  21. Furamirionind
    I don't think Araris was ever in danger of the lynch, while Quinn did look at one point like she could? Idk, I think both were pretty far fetched most of the cycle. If someone was genuinely trying to protect Quinn, I think they either forgot to remove that action or haven't been on since earlier this cycle, which is possible, though I wouldn't bet on it. That's why I don't disagree with the theory that this was Ishar trying to prove who they are. While I wanted and still want Grammar lynched, I think it was very clear all cycle that wasn't going to happen. I don't believe my vote was the one removed due to that. So my conclusion again for Ventyl is someone wanted Ventyl alive.
  22. Furamirionind
    Aye!
  23. Furamirionind
    This over defensiveness is exactly why I think Quinn is village... This kind of cements it for me right now. I don't think anyone would be looking at her wagon too critically right now. If she was an elim, this almost certainly would have been discussed, and she would not want to draw more attention to it by making a big deal about it. definitely TWTBAW imo. I will mention, it really concerns me we haven't touched the people that made a big deal protecting each other D1. I really think it's important we kill at least one of them. I would have just gone for Grammar before this point, but the fact neither Gears nor Grammar died for 2 cycles is very concerning to me.
  24. Furamirionind
    Well I'm trying to encourage voting in a way that's not saying, "if you don't vote I'm going to keep tring to get you killed" : P Edit: Oops
  25. Furamirionind
    If you're not voting on anyone, might as well put your vote somewhere...
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