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Devotary of Spontaneity

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  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Mist could have used acid D5 if she started with a bucket, since failing to take the SB is an unconfirmable action. I'm pretty sure Books taking no action N5 means they tried to give the SB to someone but Ash stole it before that could happen. Burnt claimed a LoW+ for N5 so she couldn't have been the secret extra defense.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    All right so Gears or Books. I do think Gears has been more village in the past and has a more narrow elim team scope, so I'll vote Books.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If Books didn't need to use a LoM+ to know my action, that does make it more likely that they're an elim, but also opens up the possibility for pretty much anyone to be their elim teammate. I don't think Books could have gotten the SB to Archer but if Books submitted the kill then anyone else's actions could check out while still being evil.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If elim!Ruby took the SB N6, then the only way it could have gotten to Archer is if Gears is also evil. They would have had to provide two defense N7 since both Gears and Ruby took items D7 and it doesn't fit to have two extra defense and pass the SB and submit a kill, so this isn't true. Teaching goes at the end of the night so Books couldn't have stolen it N6. Ventyl's the initial revocation specialist so unless multiple people can start with the same one or someone other than Reading started with rainbow chalk that means nobody could have given the SB to Archer. I assume that Ruby claimed a LoW to somebody since Kas told me last night that someone was drawing a LoW. I don't know if Gears could have guessed that Ruby was the one who took the Book of Making N6. It looks like Gears claimed the LoM+ on Ruby before the day went up and elim Gears would have had to guess from among Kas, Burnt, me, and Ruby I believe even after getting lucky that a traceable item was taken. Gears/Ruby is mechanically viable though as is good guesser Gears and pretty much anybody except Archer. The only person I told that I was going to use a LoM+ on Burnt was Kas. Did that information have any way of reaching Books? Any chance that Kas told people that it would be unnecessary to scan Burnt which would have lead to Books being able to guess it was me? Ultimately we have either Gears/Ruby, guessing Gears/anyone*, Books/me, guessing Books/anyone*, where anyone doesn't include Archer unless we had distribution weirdness.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Signing up as Sonnah Cojic, alchemist. When Sonnah Cojic had lived up by the border between the Northern and Western Dominances, they'd helped a trio of Terris escape their captors and make new lives for themselves. She hadn't really set out to do so, but the three of them had been brought into the noble estate to spend the night and tried to slip away before the escorting guards woke up the next day. The horses sensed their departure and ten year old Sonnah, working late in the stables, discovered them in the process of leaving. They'd been wanting to run away from the estate for years and impulsively decided that this would be her best chance. Surely these three adults, though in retrospect none them could have been over 16, would be able to get away. And so Sonnah had helped them steal horses and make for the Western Dominance across the river. By the time the estate lord put together a search team, they were nowhere to be found. In gratitude for three lives helped, the youngest Terris, a Keeper, had offered Sonnah three lives from her Coppermind. The first was some sort of devotee of a long gone religion, one that didn't make too much sense. The second had been interested in weather patterns, but Sonnah didn't really see the point of that since the ash rain was just sort of inevitable. The last had been some sort of alchemist and this, finally, was interesting. They took the names of the first two to become Sonnah Cojic which sounded respectable to a ten year old but decided to devote her life to unlocking the secrets of alchemy. Upon separating from the Terris in a small town in the Western Dominance, Sonnah began the process of achieving that dream.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I doubt Araris as the last elim would have gone for the gun and risked an immediate loss. Taking the 50% chance of death for trust is somewhat more likely if he had a teammate who could still win without him. It still seems drastic for elim!Araris to take that step when he wasn't in immediate danger of being exed.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So two extra defense got added. Looks like Ruby is claiming that and they got the warding specialisation so entirely possible. Net of -1 bucket of acid, +1 lantern. Kas should have had 1 chalk, 1 rainbow chalk, a lantern, and possibly an acid bucket according to what I think his actions spreadsheet is saying. If Kas used up his rainbow chalk, this checks out since a chalk is added to the supply with his death and then Burnt took a piece of chalk to leave the same amount behind.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Burnt has had a rough time with items like me. PM reasons early with Gears, liked Matrim and didn't want him to die D1 but didn't notice D2. Skipped over the the D3 and D4 exes as well. Most notable thing is going after Striker, first by saying Striker and Mist are worth looking into after Order flipped elim, then by voting Striker the next day. Suggested there was reason for village Striker to be left alone but wanted to resolve her suspicion. I don't have any PMs with Burnt but apparently those have been happening to some extent. Claimed Warding+ line the night Books had the Shadowblaze which I'm pretty sure means Books and Burnt aren't both evil since they would have needed not to submit a kill that night if that was true. Books votes Mist D6 jumping off Araris after voting Araris D5. Unclear if Books no longer suspected Araris at this point or just thought his reasoning on Mist was good. Forgets to do actions and claims so preemptively. Their D5 list of claimed actions matches up with Kas's spreadsheet, probably because Kas used Books' list to make it. Voted Order late D4, didn't think the evidence for Order, Gears, or Striker was that strong. Didn't understand the Shadowblaze rules when they came up D4 but learned them at some point. Wanted a tie D2 without caring much about Illwei v. Matrim. Was involved in book coordination D1 and got vigor+, hasn't claimed to use it. Can't really tell the difference between going for an item and failing, forgetting to submit an action, and submitting the night kill. They seem to be fairly individual/rogue elements until recently. Both seem to be in the unconcerned in the beginning->absent when elims were getting exed->started getting more involved and coordinating D5 and beyond category. I'll only be around for the next ~forty minutes, so might as well put in an early vote. Books and Burnt aren't the worst votes but of the three, I'll vote for Lotus.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I did not start with a map. I'd assume a making+ that got blocked by vigor+ would just report the target took no action, and that wouldn't have stopped Randby from taking the book. I don't think 'Warding for village cred' and 'semi-vocal' are mutually exclusive pools, or that all the elims have to be in one pool (although activity is correlated with my higher trusts). Nothing about one strategy precludes the other. I know that in LG 57 Sart called the game when the elims outnumbered the village on the assumption that if the elims controlled the exe it wouldn't be possible for the village to maintain a defense. I'd assume there would also be a point where the elims could win this game without ever overrunning the camp. So four people in the night kill pool unless Gears is evil, which shall be dismissed unless the other three are all villagers. My read of Lotus is pretty much the same from last cycle except that with Reading being village the fact that Lotus was a countertrain to Connie D3 isn't village indicative. I don't remember a lot about Books other than the Shadowblaze thing, and for Books and Burnt both the early votes without much indication of independent reasoning. I'll get to those later so I can actually post this. I was saving my chalk for when it would be really necessary, and then chalkling strength just never reached dangerous levels. And then I blew all my chalk in a single cycle and have had to resupply.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Reading (4): Kas, Gears, Ash, Devotary Araris (2): Archer, Mist Mist (2): Araris, Books I've had a somewhat village read on Araris. Striker being village decreases that trust because an Araris/Striker/Order team makes less sense than v!Striker + e/e Araris/Order. If they were all evil Araris probably would have bussed Order over Striker. There's no reason v!Araris couldn't have voted for Striker over Order though. Araris passing the lantern to Kas seems a village thing to do since even if elim!Araris planned to kill Kas, that leaves a lantern in the supply for a villager to potentially take instead of in elim hands. If Araris was evil it's also more likely that he would have been more afraid of being killed by the gun. Archer definitely wasn't roleblocked and a LoF+passing the lantern to Kas puts a strain on the elim action economy. It's possible the elims just didn't submit a kill but if Araris was evil I don't think they would have prioritised giving away a lantern. I remember essentially nothing about Mist. She was right about Ventyl and Striker D5. Was suspicious of Araris, but did not vote for him over Striker even when the vote was only 4-2. Is voting for Araris this cycle. If they were e/e then voting for each other doesn't seem like it would be a good strategy, especially if they're the only elims left. Vague, largely unaccountable action claims. Didn't want to pick between Gears and Striker back D4. Random voting, but she decided that before the game so NAI. Still has a bribe so far as I know. Doesn't really have connections to anyone else so isn't a priority exe target. Reexamine a cycle or two from now. Reading and Lotus are somewhat connected by the D3 vote. I don't think they're e/e, since elim Reading could have gone after anyone else since Lotus only had one vote at the time and there weren't too many votes on Connie at the time. One vote is better than none, so it would make sense for an elim Reading to vote village Lotus to save Connie. Reading doesn't think this is how Mist normally plays. I don't think there's that much of a difference but I don't have time to look now. Voted Ventyl D5, Order D4, with a very confident village read on Striker/gears that he backed down on a little when questioned. Didn't want to connect Connie and Archer, which is a bit positive given they are different alignments. Lotus supports Araris, despite being suspicious of everyone. Is largely unwilling to use items but did dump a bucket of acid D4. Supposedly supported the Connie exe but didn't actually vote for her. Voted for me D4 almost a day before rollover and didn't come back to say anything that turn. I largely ignored her vote but did say something in between the vote and cycle ending. Voted for Archer as a claimed NR instead of Mat or Illwei D2, though Archer wasn't really in danger at that point. General feeling of lack of commitment to votes. This took way too long and now the cycle is almost over. I'll vote Reading over Araris or Mist this cycle.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I ended up taking Archer's suggestion and used a LoM on Books to see who they passed the Shadowblaze to, but they didn't take an action that I could see. I've asked what I would see if Books tried to pass the Shadowblaze to someone but someone stole it before it could be given away. Books also could have just kept the Shadowblaze or lost it to a LoV+. Whatever the case, this should mean that Archer is still a villager unless Archer was actively trying to become an elim and me getting hit by a LoV+ would return that Books took no action regardless of what happened, but this seems highly unlikely. I do wonder what was going on with Books claiming that Ventyl threatened to steal the Shadowblaze since Ventyl couldn't have actually done so unless he was passed chalk for whatever reason.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I believe the vote tally looks like this after my vote for Striker. Striker (6): Araris, Gears, Burnt, Kas, Ash, Devotary Araris (2): Striker, Books Reading (1): Ventyl Books (1): Archer
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I only had the one crab, and Gears has specifically denied having the clock. Since it looks like you're claiming that the clock was not in fact stolen from you and that you did give the clock to Gears, there's a discrepancy here. Perhaps @Gears could clarify this. Being able to find out whether Archer's been converted wouldn't stop newly elim Archer from killing a lantern holder who claimed to him. It doesn't really make sense for Order to have been framing Striker given that doing so would only work if Order died and that's not a worthwhile trade. I see this more as Order taking an opportunity to exe Gears, which is the main reason I see Gears as village. It seems too early and obvious for a defensive vote but I don't know what changed such that Order was willing to cast a vote for the first time. D3 Order said they were most suspicious of Striker, though it was a minimal suspicion. Order was quick to jump on Gears D4, but didn't take the opportunity to do so D3 when he was one of the main alternatives to Connie. If Araris was evil the remaining elims would likely be among those Araris has been vocally suspicious of, but he hasn't really followed his recent elim patterns this game, so that can't be assured. Araris being evil would not be conclusive of Striker's alignment but I don't think elim Araris would have actually wanted to bus an e/e Order/Striker despite suggesting the latter two could be teammates upon initially voting Striker over Order D4.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I still had a crab all the way back from D1 and figured last night was a good time to use it, especially with defense taken care of.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You did mention Connie and Quinn as your second and third suspicions behind Mat D1 before saying that Mat was your only real suspicion 30 minutes later. That brings Connie up but doesn't really put her in danger. Voting alongside elim you would have been more about protecting you than sheeping you, but Order wasn't at all protective of Connie so that would be a change. Order hadn't voted at all in previous rounds so mostly I think that makes Gears more village without proving anything about you. The vote was 5-3 Order-Gears when Reading voted, which isn't quite doomed, but it was clear the vote was heading towards Order. I think elim!Reading gains more by stating that Gears and Striker are likely v/v if one of them is evil, since an elim would want to leave open the possibility of voting for one of them next cycle if they were both village. Books doesn't seem to be putting a lot of thought into votes. No reason given for voting Matrim D1, voting Matrim again D2 seemingly just for the tie, and then a foregone vote for Order as a slightly better option than Striker or Gears. No vote at all the turn Connie died, though looks like lack of time from their blue text, and probably hasn't had a lot of time to think about any of their votes. Elim Ash would likely be using that revocation specialisation to disappear inconvenient items. I don't know of anything important being taken, although I doubt Ventyl would have been informed of the difference between losing the clock to the thief vs a LoR+. I did scan Ventyl, no clock. I believe the only revocation specialists are Ash and Ventyl, unless Archer's handed it out or multiple people started with revocation. There's a decent chance the elims couldn't have stolen from Ventyl. I don't know why he would claim to have given it to Gears, especially since Gears says that's not true. There were no bribes available, so Stink would have stolen from someone. If nobody else was stolen from, the clock was presumably stolen instead of given to Stink.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It is a problem that an elim up for the exe could go for the gun and potentially kill anyone else trying for it. Roleblocking the exe target would make that no longer a concern. On that note, we only want one person to go for the gun because if multiple people go for it, nobody gets it. For the Shadowblaze, regardless of who gets it we'll want lantern users standing by to see what the defense totals suggest about the holder's alignment. Right now, we only know that Araris and some anonymous player have lanterns. Since the Shadowblaze is destroyed if the owner dies, it's probably worth spending the chalk saved on defense to protect a village Shadowblaze holder. Ventyl does not currently possess the clock.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If multiple people go for the gun, all but one of them die and nobody gets the gun, so there is no gun currently in someone's hands.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Not using a map for several turns in a row is more suspicious than jumping on Striker for lying about the clock, so I'll vote Order over Gears.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Given that Striker claimed to be going for the clock last night, Gears must have been trying to confirm that specifically. With a previously stated suspicion of Striker, that would make sense to do. Gears mentioned using a LoM on Araris to confirm that he drew a LoW, although I don't think it was public knowledge that Araris was going to do that N2 until Striker posted right before rollover so it would have been for some other reason. If Striker wanted to make sure he got the clock without anyone knowing he had it, he wouldn't have claimed to be going for it. Claiming potentially decreases the competition for grabbing it, or increases for people already suspicious of Striker. Claiming an action beforehand trying to show you didn't submit the kill would only work if you get scanned or prove you got an item, so that wouldn't be an especially viable strategy. Grabbing a map is a neutral action, but using it is village aligned since the extra defense items mean the addition of items benefits the village for than the elims.Witholding a map is unhelpful.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    This vote's a lot more decided. It would take a bribe and a silencing to even get a tie, but we'll put it a little more out of range with Condensation.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as a spectator.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Theoretically we could get more villagers than elims to go for the high profile items like the ornate clock or the Shadowblaze when it shows up, but that is complicated by the need to draw LoW at night. If the elims don't have a revocation specialty it's definitely better to get the good items out to be taken during the day, with the understanding that whoever ends up with important items is liable to be killed in addition to being stolen from. I think we only had three defense claims until the very end; Araris, Alvron, and anonymous claim to Striker, which was low enough to be worrisome. We somehow ended up with six defense though which seems too high. We have the aforementioned three, Kas, Order, and then I don't think we know the sixth. Horde wise, exing Archer would be better than exing Illwei or Matrim if Lotus thought they were both village, though doing so would warrant a stronger village read on them than Lotus's earlier read list suggested. Why are you suspicious of Archer? Do you doubt his NR claim, or think the Shadowblaze is somehow in play? +1 defense every cycle probably will be better than even a permanent -2 strength. If you're confident enough in your reads to cast a vote with the intention of killing a particular player, it's reasonable to use vote manipulation to ensure their death, although vote manipulation comes at a higher cost than usual this game. Ventyl's vote manipulation was definitely not an elim saving a teammate as Matrim was a villager. Framing is more likely, but chalk is decently valuable. I don't see TJ/Ventyl spending valuable resources to play both sides of the manipulation. So if strength is three say, we would want four villagers to draw LoW just in case and then claim the following day. If a lantern holder says the defense is five, it suggests that the Shadowblaze holder is village. To fool that if the holder was an elim, the Forgotten would need to contribute two defense. Alternatively, they could try to block two of the four villagers so that the reported defense is 3 like it would be if all the lines had gone through but the Shadowblaze was elim. Any villager who ended up with the Shadowblaze would become a prime kill target.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I also went for a map and failed. The most obvious possibilities for the person who removed Illwei's vote are who voted for Illwei. Ashbringer, Ventyl, StrikerEZ, Random Bystander, Condensation, Matrim's Dice Definitely wasn't Matrim, Striker, or Bystander, and both Ash and Condensation claimed something else, so the last aboveboard option is Ventyl. Even if it was someone trying to save Archer instead of Matrim I think these are the options. If it wasn't @Ventyl ,then I think it's malicious.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We had so much vote manipulation. Illwei, Archer, and Alvron all had their votes cancelled. The earlier version of the writeup also had Archer's vote bribed to Matrim, but either that's not true or it's irrelevant because Archer's vote was also cancelled. Mat claimed two pieces of chalk, so this makes sense.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Illwei (7): Archer, Ventyl, Connie, Matrim, Bystander, Striker, Ash Matrim (7): Araris, Quinn, Kas, Books, Devotary, TJ, Illwei Archer (2): STINK, Lotus Flyingbooks (1): Mist
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