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Devotary of Spontaneity

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Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Ash, for future reference.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It doesn't look like my vote means anything at this point. Downside of missing most of the content right before rollover. Still don't think Dannex is a good exe but nothing will come of it unless a bunch of people vote for Quinn or something.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I think the point is that an elim wouldn't have removed a vote from Dannex if Lotus was evil (although I guess the elims would have known elim!Lotus would survive), and thus if Dannex is suggesting that the elims did purposefully remove a vote it's implying a belief that the elims would be okay with Lotus being exed.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If the Grey Ajah wanted to save Dannex specifically, Ash who placed his vote early and Lotus who definitely wasn't going to switch her vote off their main competition would be good choices. An elim Grey Ajah might as well use their ability, since it's unlikely any given player will be scanned by a Blue Ajah and being seen targeting someone who doesn't die isn't automatically incriminating. I don't see why the elims couldn't have a Brown Ajah though. There's too many unknowns about the distribution to say that's too powerful.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Missed a lot of what was going on it seems. Dannex isn't playing like I remember from MR47 elim game. Green Ajah claim can be confirmed pretty easily, but it's better if the kill target is announced seconds before rollover since the elims can also kill. It's 6-5 against Dannex right now, I will not be reading all these new posts, and just vote for Lotus instead.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Warder/Ajah don't have to share an alignment. There aren't necessarily the same number of Warders and Ajah. Aes Sedai and Ajah are the same* thing and Warders can only protect their bonded Aes Sedai, if any. Red Ajah used to identify a random Warder, but then it got changed to a worse Brown Ajah. White Ajah is useful for the elims because killing half of a Warder-Aes Sedai pair removes all abilities from the survivor. I assume you're counting three kills as in elim kill, Green Ajah, exe, but there's a lot of protection and extra lives potentially flying around. There's potentially enough village protection that the elims would need a larger-than-standard team. I kind of doubt there's a village brown Ajah and two village yellow Ajah. Usually GMs put in the no targeting in consecutive cycles clause because they don't want it to be possible for someone to be continuously protected. The Green Ajah can't tell you unless you happen to be their Warder, as Reading points out. Ajah almost certainly will not have multiple Warders, that was back when every Aes Sedai had at least one Warder and Warder-Aes Sedai had to share alignments, giving TJ the option to have an odd number of elims. Claiming elim wasn't a good strategy for Gears, why are you doing it now? Warders don't start out knowing what kind of Ajah their partner is.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Kine, who is still somewhat resentful about having been denied a place in the White Tower several years ago.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Everybody who voted Ventyl D2 showed up again to kill him, so I'm fairly sure about Fura, Connie, and to a lesser extent Araris being village. Nobody who directly opposed the votes on Ventyl D2 tried to stop Ventyl from dying this time, but expanding the definition of 'opposed to Ventyl' to include everyone still alive who voted for someone else D2 and/or D4, we have Books and Lotus voting Experience, SfS voting for Araris, Stink voting for Quinn, and me voting for TJ on D2, and then Mist voting SfS while Eternum votes for Jester this past turn. The only people still alive who posted between the time the Experience-Ventyl vote was 4-2 and when the cycle ended were Fura and Condensation, but I know that I saw Fura's vote before rollover. Books posted a minute after rollover talking about vote manipulation, though supposedly the vote removed from Ventyl was not Kaladin's doing. I expect that Kaladin would have stepped in to save Szeth if they noticed the vote was tied in the <1 minute between Condensation voting and the day ending. It's a lot less certain that they would have interfered at 4-3. Books summoned everyone to vote at 3-2-2 Experience-Ventyl-Araris and indicated a willingness to vote Ventyl that disappeared after Eternum claimed that Kaladin wasn't the one to remove a vote from Ventyl. They suggested that Ishar's Blade was responsible, which Eternum also claimed was false. Lotus broke a 2-2 tie between Experience and Ventyl D2, but also it would have been really easy for Lotus to stick with the Fura vote when it was 2-2 instead of switching to Ventyl which lead to a largely uncontested vote.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    While it's possible Matrim was working with the elims, he did get attacked by what was presumably them N1 and again, Matrim pretty much could only have gotten Battar's Blade with elim help if the Shaman knows Eternum's evil and just never bothered to say anything or the other secret role was also working for the elims. Okay looking at the Ventyl votes D2, we had obviously Connie, Fura, Araris, and Illwei against him, while Matrim, Books, SfS, and I (and Quinn but she's dead) are the ones who looked to be against it. That makes sense with the current votes, as all of the surviving Ventyl voters have returned while none of the people who defended Ventyl have posted since the votes started piling up. I don't have a lot of strong feelings about Ventyl, mostly because it seems like he gets bandwagoned on a lot and is rarely evil when that happens, but his death would indicate who Matrim was helping and I mostly clear Araris/Fura/Condensation if Ventyl is evil. My vote is irrelevant at this point but putting it on Ventyl doesn't hurt.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    TJ had Battar's Blade as of N2 and both transfers and claims happen after deaths, so the only way Condensation could have gotten the Blade in time to give it to Matrim is for her to have killed TJ N2. Eternum seemed to believe that the elims were the ones to kill Illwei N2, and if true would mean that if Connie did kill TJ she wouldn't be an elim. Right now I believe we only have Condensation's word that Chanarach opened PMs N2 and thus couldn't kill anyone, though supposedly Jester can confirm. We know Matrim didn't kill TJ because doing so would have made him win at the end of D3. For this to be a conspiracy where Connie is an elim I think we'd need the elims to 1. Either have Vedel's Blade or get information from them and therefore know what cycles Chanarach opened PMs or have Chanarach/an ally freely share this information with elim!Condensation and 2. Either have Eternum also be evil and be fully lying about starting with Ishar's Blade with the Shaman never bothering to contradict this claim or a secret kill role allies with the elims and lies to Eternum (or is Eternum, but this runs into the Ishar claim problem again), telling him they killed TJ when it was actually elim!Connie who killed TJ.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I think the elims needed all seven Blades to win, so that win con is now impossible. How much do you want villagers to share reads on people that are village for role reasons? If someone is read as a non-elim because they've demonstrably proven to be the Stone Shaman, the original Bearers of Ishar or Chanarach's Blades, or a neutral role, what would you want brought up in thread? I don't think 2 kills is worse than 1 in the model? In the five elim scenario, only one Chana kill instead of two ends up reaching a night turn with 6-2(or 1 now)-5, which is just as much of a loss as 5-2-5 since parity will be reached after the elim kill. In the four elim scenario, one Chana kill goes to 6-2-4 instead of 5-2-4 at the beginning of D6, which still loses at the end of N6. Fura's model neglects the possibility of elim kills being roleblocked or the target protected so "worse in every way" isn't strictly accurate for anything but the worst case scenario, but having that second Chanarach kill opens up the possibility of hitting an elim.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You didn't have a vote cast at the time, so nobody would have targeted you. Any vote manipulation to remove a vote from Fura or Quinn would have just meant that the other would have a 50% chance of dying instead of a 100% chance. I don't really see why Lotus would have made herself look really suspicious by putting a vote on an elim teammate to create a tie. Maybe that makes sense for them to do if Fura was also evil since a 1/2 chance to a 2/3 chance of an elim dying is potentially worthwhile if the elim death comes with additional trust for Lotus, but then Fura dying and flipping elim would make Lotus look bad. Introducing an elim teammate to a v/v situation just gives a 2/3 chance for Lotus to look suspicious and a 1/3 chance of an elim dying needlessly. You did order these most to least, so does that mean you have Jester as largely exclusive to Lotus and quite possibly Fura?
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It doesn't count as being the gods of luck and chance if there are cheating villagers around to decide a tie against someone who didn't even have the most votes at rollover. I'll vote on Quinn to make this one a tie though.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It does seem weird that Quinn would suggest that Eternum might know who killed TJ without mentioning Illwei, especially as Quinn suggested that either of them would make sense as the elim kill. Quinn's response in thread indicates that this omission is because only TJ had a Blade, but the knowledge of where his Blade ended up is inextricably linked to the identity of TJ's killer.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If Eternum was lying about starting with Ishar's Blade and having it stolen N1, it should be counterclaimed since that's the basis for assuming Eternum as a villager and that the information about the secret role removing a vote from Ventyl while Kaladin removes a vote from Quinn is correct. That doesn't mean the theoretical real Ishar bearer has to publicly say that's why Eternum is lying.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The possibility of Chanarach's Bearer being an elim has been considered and specifically discounted because it gives the elims too much killing power. If Vedel opened PMs N1 they couldn't have also saved Matrim that night, which would mean XP saved him. It seems like nobody has counterclaimed Eternum about starting with and subsequently losing Ishar's Blade, nor has anyone reported hearing from someone who tried to prove they had Ishar's Blade. If a secret role removed a vote from Ventyl, then it seems Kaladin cancelled the vote of one of the Quinn voters without trying to prove access to Adhesion, after not influencing the results of Danex vs. Connie D1. One stormlight isn't a high cost for Kaladin, but it isn't nothing.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I was checking whether people would try to swing the vote onto you, with the intention of switching to Experience if they did. When nobody voted for you, I didn't bother to vote move my vote since it was 4-2 at the time. I had a post ready to switch from you to Experience, but by the time Condensation voted it was already rollover by my clock. To clarify, I was referring to my general feelings about Lotus and Books, not their vote reasoning.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yes, Araris was never in more danger than you were.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yeah, I looked at where Experience's vote previously was and saw SfS on that same person and ended up switching SfS and Stink. Yes, if someone cancelled XP's vote when it was on Araris, it would still remove a vote from you.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Just quoting you randomly out of everyone. Adhesion removes a players vote, not a vote from a player. That means one of Experience and SfS had their vote removed, and one of Araris, Illwei, Fura, and Condensation had their vote cancelled. SfS's first and only vote was on Quinn, while Experience switched from Araris to Quinn slightly over half an hour before rollover. Araris and Fura had their votes on Ventyl for a while, while Fura switched from Condensation to Ventyl four minutes before rollover and Condensation had no prior votes.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There's enough time for you to vote on someone you actually suspect and then switch later if its nonviable (this made more sense at the time I started writing this post). For instance, TJ Shade. Supposedly a lot of people want to vote for him, but nobody has. I'm not voting Gears today. I'm somewhat surprised the votes for Connie went away, but that might be a point in her favor. Quinn is slipping but not yet vote-worthy. Don't have a lot on Fura. I'd look at SfS if XP flips elim. The post Araris was voted on for doesn't seem especially suspicious and nothing else is particularly AI. The Ventyl votes are for supporting Condensation. I don't know why the Truthless would be indifferent to someone getting voted out, as the Truthless had no special information about alignment and just wanted to get votes for themself. The Experience votes are for an odd vote on Araris, apparent odd tone, and PM reasons. Of the XP voters, I'm feeling better about Matrim, Books seems fine, and I'm not feeling great about Quinn or Lotus.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Right, sorry, should have read your previous post again and also taken another look at the reason why you voted Connie in the first place.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That is true, but a lesser elim read and not putting Connie in your list of people you'd vote for today suggests that your suspicion of Connie isn't based on the vote switch to Danex,
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If Connie is a villager, why would the elims have wanted to switch the vote over to Danex? There are almost certainly some elims on the Danex train just because elims don't usually like to vote together, but there wouldn't necessarily be more on one side or another unless Connie is also evil. Technically, Chanarach could have have opened PMs on both the day and night turns, even though this would be a silly thing to do for the most part. Why do you think it couldn't have been elim!Pailiah saving Matrim with Progression? I'm doubt the value of the elims running a WGG on someone who wasn't under any suspicion, but it doesn't look like you addressed this possibility. On the other hand, if the elims were not responsible for Matrim's survival, he has to be either village or neutral.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I thought Danex was a secret role because of their speculation of what the secret roles could be, but I wasn't thinking Truthless. Danex not being evil certainly makes the swing from Connie to Danex look worse. I'm kind of concerned that whoever it was decided to open PMs for a turn instead of waiting long a little longer and opening them for a cycle. It seems like a waste of stormlight since we can't count on PMs being open consistently. I'm leaning more towards overeager for PMs than elim who needs the night action for a kill though.
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