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Devotary of Spontaneity

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Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Do you still think that Mat and Illwei are both elims such that you don't care which one gets exed?
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I noted her retraction from Mat and then forgot to check whether she'd previously voted for someone. But now it took me so long to get around to this that I've looped around to being right. Even more confident that Matrim/Illwei not e/e. Illwei feels more village of the two for content and vote patterns, most of my support for Matrim comes from the acid bucket thing. If extra items were distributed randomly and elim Matrim ended up with one it would be entirely reasonable for him to get out of a bad situation by claiming and following through. If we do have elim Matrim with acid, Ash is probably village as it would have made more sense to try and recruit a villager into saving him than appealing to a fellow elim. There would then likely be an elim among Burnt, Quinn, and Ventyl if Matrim is evil. Village Matrim says very little about any of these people. Elim Illwei would likely either be with Gears or didn't want to get involved in a v/v and just tossed out a random vote. The latter doesn't really say much about the gush of Dannex votes. I think I'll vote Matrim over Illwei. I'll consider Striker's switch after posting this. Illwei (6): Ashbringer, Archer, Ventyl, Connie, Matrim, Bystander Matrim (7): Araris, Quinn, Kas, Illwei, Books, Devotary, Striker Archer (3): TJ, STINK, Lotus Flyingbooks (1): Mist
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You're right, and I also can't count. This should be correct now. Illwei (7): Ashbringer, Striker, Archer, Ventyl, Connie, Matrim, Bystander Matrim (5): Araris, Quinn, Kas, Illwei, Books Archer (3): TJ, STINK, Lotus Flyingbooks (1): Mist
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Illwei (5): Ashbringer, Striker, Archer, Ventyl, Connie, Matrim Matrim (4): Araris, Quinn, Kas, Illwei Archer (3): Random Bystander, TJ, STINK, Flyingbooks (1): Mist This should be the current vote count. Archer's not in danger. I don't think it's likely for Illwei and Matrim to both be evil. If Matrim is evil there's a decent chance he actually did have and use a bucket of acid, as compared to near certainty for village Matrim. Elim Illwei would have likely assumed the Dannex train wouldn't take off with village Matrim and Gears. With the latter two E/V voting for the other would be easier, or trying to start a train on Striker who Illwei expressed actual suspicion of. All three of them being evil seems far-fetched.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I can confirm that I received a specialisation and was then PMd by Archer saying he was the one who'd given it to me. Killing Archer doesn't increase chalkling strength but also kills a villager with no chance of decreasing horde strength. The Shadowblaze can be tracked if it's taken during the day which would make it more difficult for the elims to get it to Archer without anyone noticing, with the downside that if a villager gets it during the day it's easy for them to be targeted. If it's taken at night we won't know if it makes it's way to Archer. I don't want to vote Archer now while he's still a villager.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Archer is strangely willing for a thief to steal from him. Since the thief gets a random item instead of a bribe, there's no reason it couldn't be the chalk that got stolen instead. Archer didn't claim a LoW and no votes were cancelled, but any other lines other than revocation would have gone before theft. Alternatively, he didn't fully read the rules, doesn't care if the thief got his chalk, or never had any to begin with. Crabs used to be action scans, but in this game they just tell you what items someone has. Mostly good for something like confirming that someone actually used an item or finding out who snagged a valuable item at night. Lines of Making are the target scans. E/E Illwei/Gears could have lead to her starting a new train on Dannex, but it would be easier for them to just not do the Striker vs. Mat analysis and stick a vote on Matrim and the Dannex vote peeled away more Matrim voters than Gears voters so it would have been a risky strategy to try. Was this before or after Matrim apparently claimed acid to Ash ~7 hours before rollover D1?
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I see, so you're thinking it was someone who drew a LoF who asked that question and not just someone like Kas who wanted to know if protects/roleblocks showed up in the writeup.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Sart said that someone using a LoF wouldn't be informed if they blocked a kill, and you responded that someone else must have also drawn a LoF when it was possible that you were the only one who had.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Pretty sure this means that if you could have been the only LoF and have gotten attacked, but I doubt the elims would have attacked you given how much you were indicating that you would self-protect. TJ has not contradicted Quinn's claim of 3 defense, so we're sticking with that and Matrim, Kas, and Order as the protectors. Matrim promised to tell Ash about having an item ~7 hours before rollover which is probably related to Ash deciding to join a vote saving Mat. I doubt this would be an E/E ploy so early; better to get a villager on your side if Mat was evil, elim!Mat wouldn't want to commit to spending a chalk to cover up a fake acid bucket when other options were available, and self-contained evil loop probably could have avoided using an acid bucket, so I'd guess that Matrim at the very least is telling the truth about using acid. Elim!Illwei probably wouldn't start a new train on Dannex if Gears and Matrim are both village. They could have voted for either if the other was evil up until she made the post about Striker being more suspicious of Mat, after which it would have been hard to vote for him. Anytime before that a vote for Matrim would have been accepted.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yeah, which is why the only reason it could be a village revoker is if they had a strong suspicion of you being evil. Without that suspicion, they wouldn't have stolen from you, while an elim revoker would benefit from stealing from you or a thief, actually I don't know why the thief would steal from you since there was no indication that you were going for a bribe and that's the only item that would materially benefit a thief except for a map which the thief doesn't need to possess. The thief doesn't (specifically) start with chalk so going for revocation specialisation doesn't make sense.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If you and a revoker are both village, it is a waste since it goes from two pieces of chalk (yours and theirs) to one piece of chalk (the one that used to be yours). With a village revoker and elim you it wouldn't be a waste since you wouldn't have done anything productive with that chalk anyway in that case.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You won't really see the effects of acid, including the bucket of acid Matrim claimed to use, with random defending since you won't know how much defense there was supposed to be. Everyone who did submit a protect claiming the turn after would help with that, but would also let the elims know who doesn't have chalk anymore. If the thief wants to just take five bribes from the supply and leave there's no reason to stop them, though they might not find that fun. The someone with a specialisation in Revocation would likely be an elim in that case, unless a villager was so confident that Ash was evil they were willing to waste a chalk to steal his. Last minute switches that hit a villager don't mean the person saved is evil, but I still don't know why a lot of people decided a null was a better choice than Matrim. Illwei thought Matrim was making reasonable statements that Striker was blowing out of proportion, and Quinn didn't think an elim would publicly give up more than two hours before rollover with a single vote difference but everyone else is more opaque. I would feel better about Matrim if we could confirm acid use, though again that requires people to claim chalk use.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Dannex (5): Illwei, Ash, Burnt, Matrim, Quinn Matrim's Dice (5): TJ Shade, StrikerEZ, Flyingbooks, Ventyl, Devotary Gears (3): STINK, Araris Valerian, Kasimir Random Bystander (1): Mist Illwei (1): Archer Dannex said in signups that signing up was a mistake, which presumably indicates a lack of time to dedicate to the game, so the lack of posts (though they have said things in PM) cannot be assumed to be auto-evil. Gears claims elim immediately, advocates for no D1 exe and small group defense instead of the RNG plan. I know the every post analysis is something Gears has done as evil, but didn't do in his last village game, although that probably has more to do with QF 50's 20 page cycles than alignment. I do get some aggrieved elim annoyed they're dying for the wrong reasons from Matrim, but don't remember if this is how Matrim responds to unwarranted suspicion. I don't like the sudden swing to Dannex for reasons they had little control over. I will scream if this turns into 'saving Dannex every cycle again', though the situations are quite different. Acid would be a weird item for an elim to start with, and can be checked for lies. I'll vote Matrim I guess but I don't really like this. Should have read more.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    In general, looking for extra reasoning to convince other people to vote for someone you already suspect might help get that person killed, but it doesn't do a good job in helping you pick the correct exe target. You'd need to already be confident in your read of that person, either by accumulation of previous evidence or by knowing their alignment by virtue of being evil. It's not clear that's what you were trying to do since you did retract the book reasoning after being corrected by TJ and it seemed like you personally did temporarily think wanting to go for a book was suspicious. I think Quinn is the only one strongly advocating for other lines, though perhaps other people share that opinion. It's possible we'll have the leeway to do that. The book thing looks like the main reasoning because you put your vote after mentioning it instead of where you talked about overprotecting. Even less of a strict LG 57 rerun than before! I guess this can help defense a little, but I'll still believe that maps haven't changed to suddenly produce a mountain of defense items unless Sart actively proves me wrong.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Maps absolutely do not grant anything close to the current camp supply. They'll drop a few of the rare items we don't have access to now like guns and Shadowblaze, not ten extra defense items. With constant mixes, we'll run out of defense well before cycle 12. What size groups were you wanting? The bigger the group the more likely it is to have an elim who would know who was responsible for contributing the defense, and the only one who can trust that a number was actually randomly generated is the person who randomly decided. The math checks out as in 'we probably won't get overrun tonight', not 'this is the most efficient way to protect the camp'. It should be good enough until PM coordination can start happening without major concerns that the elims will know who to block. I would not expect a lot of people to use their chalk to do anything other than draw lines of warding when we don't really have a good idea how much defense we're going to need over the course of the game. Every other line is only useful if you have a good idea that you're hitting the right target at the right time. Again, maps aren't that valuable for defense, and I sincerely doubt that anyone started the game with any items other than chalk. If anyone who played LG57 started that game with something in addition to chalk, now is the time to say so(though the rules aren't quite the same as they were in LG 57 even beyond secrets being revealed). You are right that some overprotection will be necessary to avoid elim roleblocks, though they're less likely to try roleblocking people who are making decisions at random.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Right, okay. Looks like there's a 94/95% (depending on 16 or 17 villagers) chance of getting at least two defense with 1/4 odds and a greater than 80% chance of 3+ defense. With 1/5, that's 86/88% and 65/69%. Actual coordination would require some sort of accountability and claiming in PMs. Potentially have the people known to have grabbed chalk and acid today largely cover defense until more trust can be developed.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    What do you think is going to happen that 4 defense would be needed to stop one chalkling? It looks like the only thing that can lower defense is a LoW getting roleblocked.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The non-rithmatist claiming is how the village lost last time when the conversion ability of the Shadowblaze was a secret. Right now the non-rithmatist is a villager and I don't think it's beneficial to immediately let the elims know who to target if they ever get the Shadowblaze. People have treated the thief as somewhat hostile in previous Rithmatist games but the benefit of having such a high player count in this game is that there's so many more items, including six valuable items right there in the camp supply, that any harm the thief causes by bailing with items is minimised. Lanterns are good if defenses get coordinated. Three people say they're going to contribute to the defense but then only two defense actually manifests, the lantern wielder knows that something went wrong and for right now everyone knows whether they got roleblocked. I know people have differing opinions on this, but I would disapprove of the specifically village non-Rithmatist purposefully converting themselves to the elim side by grabbing the Shadowblaze. The ornate clock doesn't automatically prevent the camp from being overrun if the elims have the Shadowblaze, but we'll have some indication as to whether that's a possibility. The elims can roleblock people from adding defense, so we'll need more than openly claiming the exact amount needed to protect the camp every night. There's only so many actions you can or should target other players with, and watching someone target a player who winds up dead is always suspicious. I assume that the thief and non-Rithmatist start with nothing while everybody else has one piece of chalk. Every other item has to be claimed from the supply. A Shadowblaze probably won't be introduced unless someone uses a map. It's hard to predict how much defense we'll end up needing over the course of the game, but we have 16-17 now, 10 available in the supply, three maps which can potentially get more defense options, and a non-rithmatist who can grant people double strength lines of warding, so I think we do have the budget for two defense tonight just to be safe.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Kaniae Moreau, continuing the proud tradition of trivowelic names.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Breaker is correct, I will not be using vote manipulation this turn.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    24 total lives and the Ajah roles tilted in the village's favor, so a six possibly seven lived elim team makes sense. I think there's a good chance Archer is evil but I doubt he's the last elim.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Archer (4): Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Devotary of Spontaneity, Condensation Condensation (3): Gears, Archer, Breaker The only way we instantly lose in a tie is if for some bizarre reason the elim team is Gears and James, since a three Warder elim team doesn't make sense, so we're going to ignore those. Gears Breaker is winnable so long as Breaker is hit first. Anything else should be doable if it comes to that. You have not voted for Archer that I can find and certainly not in any situation that mattered. You have Liranil->Dannex C1, Dannex->Ash C2, Dannex C3, Lotus C4, Dannex->Devotary C5, ended up on Order C6. @James Brafin, if you want a tie, you can submit the vote manipulation and I'll abstain from doing so.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    What votes has Archer actually cast? I don't like him comparing his vote on Striker to James's two votes for Lotus given that Striker was never in anything resembling danger while Lotus was actually shrekt both times. Archer votes Dannex C2, but since we're now 100% sure that Dannex is a villager as was Ash, that means less. Archer voting Dannex C3 looks bad, Lotus putting a vote on Archer instead of Dannex looks somewhat better. I still don't know why people voted on me D5 but since the main opposition was Burnt that's less AI. Possibly more so should Order be evil. I think I'm willing to vote Archer for now.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I would not kill teammates for absolutely no reason when there were perfectly fine villagers available to be shrekt. I see you believe that elim Gears wouldn't vote on villagers to protect his teammates, but early bussing isn't extremely common.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Remembering that Matrim claimed Archer as his Aes-Sedai. All village vote manipulators is fairly common specifically because vote manipulation is much more powerful for the elims. QF 48 was the most recent game where the village had vote manip while the elims didn't. Connie and Order also aren't bound to reds. If Breaker was an elim red then Gears would also be evil.
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