Jump to content

Devotary of Spontaneity

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2184

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Araris I guess. Better than a tie or me dying.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Maill voted for me last cycle for having voted late on trains along with people who aren't dead yet. I assume he's still following that reasoning even though only my D3 vote had actual significance. I missed rollover last cycle but I'll make sure not to miss it this cycle. I'd be willing to vote for any of Stink/Maill|Stick I think even though I'm worried about the split around Maill's alignment. Burnt has helped me realise that her name being signed at the end of the first tineye message does not mean that she's the tineye who sent it, which does open up e/e Maill/Burnt again. Fifth seems to have roughly the same suspicions as Maill but different reasonings. @Fifth Scholar, why did confusion over my posts turn into suspicion? I would also like to see your response to TJ's post from C4.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Maill is going to be in the top three for continued survival if nothing else. Maill and Burnt both being elim tineyes would be a fun distribution, but I don't think it's likely. Some of the people who helped Maill survive D3 and D4 would presumably be evil if Maill is, but we may have run out of mixes depending on whether there's 6 or 7 elims. I'd say STINK if Maill is evil, for twice voting in Maill's defense while not voting D1 or D2. Village Maill means the elims could have just hung out the past two cycles and perhaps the whole game. It would have benefited them to keep attention on Maill and pit him against villagers to try for a string of mixes, but that could include people on both sides of Maill trains. Nobody currently alive voted for Maill both D3 and D4. Stick and Ash have both seemed at times willing to let Maill get close to danger without actually dying, leaving D3 at a 5-5 tie and then making sure Maill/Gears was close. Stick is less likely to be e/e with Maill than Ash is, so of just three suspicions I'll put Stink/Maill|Stick.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I didn't think the things Striker said D1 meant he deserved death. I mentioned why I didn't vote Striker D2, because I didn't think the vote patterns would make sense for an elim Striker. There's functionally no difference between me voting Books D1 and me choosing not to vote. The only thing it does is make a permanent note of my opinions. It is true that my saying late votes are NAI is partially because I did so. It is true that Illwei wasn't in mortal danger at the time Striker moved his vote. All three of Striker, Quinn, and Biplet being village means they couldn't have been trying to protect elim!Illwei. This was in agreement with previous posts by Gears and Quinn; TJ says that Gears is TMI village reading Quinn, Illwei, and Striker, Gears and Quinn argue and I agree that an elim Gears might defend these three even if they weren't all villagers. The votes disappearing from Ash was something pointing to elim!Ash compared to a previous null-positive view of Ash, but didn't make me read him as elim overall.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Why do you think the suspicious votes from D1 are the ones on the person who got exed while the D2 suspicious votes are the ones on the main counterwagon? And then D3 it's back to suspicion of the votes for the exe target. My votes already aren't super valuable since things are often decided by then, but they would be even less important if I didn't vote or voted for someone without any votes, so I'll pretty much always go for someone who has a chance of dying. My Maill opinion is worse now than the neutral-positive when I voted for Quinn yesterday as Maill survived with Burnt and Maill's votes after mine and then apparently a Soothe from Gears, with Quinn then flipping village. I do also note Maill voting for me based on my voting patterns after earlier criticising Quinn for basing her reads on voting patterns. Opinion hasn't gone all the way to negative though. I'm not a fan of Gears Soothing a vote off Maill but then not making his opinion public by actually voting for Quinn, especially since people seem to have known Gears's role already. Gears' opposition to the Fallion Four's D2 decision to vote for Striker seems too honest to have known about it, i.e. be evil with any of those four, or at the very least would have opposed it in doc if Maill or Stick were evil with Gears. Someone else, I don't know. I'd agree with Araris that the elims killing lower posters suggests that there are several more active elims. There's not actually a lot of people matching that; we've got a lot of mediums and I don't want to vote someone just for activity. I do think Tani's reaction to Quinn's death means she and now Connie are village. Vague Matrim/Illwei team just because the initial PM group agreed to kill Illwei and the group that included Matrim ended up killing someone else but I could be completely wrong on the timing of this and who was making the decisions to switch the kill to Maill and then XP. I've never really been into a vote on Ash. I probably should know more about Stick but also have the anti sunk cost feel like she's village if Maill is evil and a village Maill means we should give up and look somewhere else.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There's a nine month spoiler policy for RoW so if your game runs before August you'd have to mark it as spoilers. I'm pretty sure you'd still be able to run it so long as you marked those. You do have permission to name roleless players the Devotary of Spontaneity.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    For the name, maybe something referring to the War of Loss that the radical ardents want to revisit? All the roles seem fine. If it takes long enough for this game to run you might be able to add a couple more Devotaries if you wanted to fill out the standard Mistborn roles or something since there's 10 Devotaries in total. The Devotary of Spontaneity is functionally equivalent to no Devotary since its members wouldn't plan ahead enough to take an action.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Illwei probably would have voted Maill over Quinn but they seemed somewhat conflicted and confused D3 and now she doesn't, which suggests that something, Quinn being village or otherwise, has happened to change that read.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Immediate four votes on Maill, the kind of voting you get when someone is scanned as evil. Except there's no indication that's the case. Of the four people voting on Maill, only Mat voted for Maill D3 and said things indicating he would do so again today. TJ talked about the vote manipulation that saved Maill, but it looks like we know what that since Gears is claiming to have Soothed a vote off Maill. Simplest explanation is that Gears is the only vote manipulator still alive with the three missing votes D1 being Quinn, Gears, and XP moving a vote to Stick, but it's also possible there are more manips out there. When you edit the original post you can add tags, so I've been manually copying the tags for each turn into the main thread. We haven't been doing it because it requires typing the tags up again with no automatic way to merge them. Sometimes the tags are arranged in the order I add them and sometimes they aren't, so I don't know what's going on with that.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Part of the reason I voted for Quinn was to see how people responded when the vote was close. It looks like the main response within the limited group of players involved was not really wanting either Maill or Quinn to die but being forced to go through with it due to momentum and it being too close to rollover. Attempts to swing the vote to anyone else were halfhearted. Only two votes were removed as opposed to the three votes removed D1 when the outcome was less in doubt. The difference could be because Experience is dead, having caused one of the three missing votes D1 by moving someone to Stick, leaving only two and now one soother(s). Who would you have voted for if you'd switched in time for rollover? Any Seekers have had two chances to find a villager with a role to give scan information to, so there's a decent chance that's a viable source of information without exposing the Seeker and is more accountable than a tineye message.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    One Coinshot or Seek is better than none. There's also not really a good reason to self-pres so early in the cycle. Your vote for Quinn happened ~19 hours before rollover and the exe on Striker was cemented ~12 hours before rollover, plenty of time for you to vote for people you found suspicious instead of jumping right to must survive at any costs mode. Not sure how this makes Maill good unless Illwei is evil. A village Illwei wouldn't suggest that Maill was a villager for identifying her as a potential highly active elim. It's tempting to just go tearing through the PM group looking for an elim, even though it's not necessarily the case that we'll find one there. I do think it's necessary to resolve at least one of the six including this group of four + Illwei and Matrim. Right now Tani seems too regretful/paranoid of the people she previously trusted to have been an elim ploy. I really should know more about Stick. Going for the v!Illwei->v!Maill progression would be helpful for e!Stick even if it got her exed D5 so I do think it's encouraging she backed off that. E/E Stick/Illwei or Stick/Maill seems like a lot, though the latter is less likely I think. Those two elims in that PM should have been able to keep the kill away from Maill and e!Stick shouldn't want to draw a clear line from v!Illwei to teammate Maill even to retract. If Illwei and someone else in this PM were both evil their teammate likely would have tried to redirect the kill to someone else. Anyone involved, was their any initial dissent on this subject? Matrim is less likely to be evil if Maill is and more likely if Illwei is evil based on the kills he suggested. All that isn't super relevant at the moment since it looks like the main things that could happen within this group are Maill or Quinn. A close vote this late in the cycle is intriguing. I'd like to make it closer and see who tries to intervene to save either of them. I also don't want to be on for rollover. Let's see. Either Maill or Quinn flipping village doesn't tell us a lot; not enough to immediately go kill the other one. Either of them flipping elim does reduce the chance that anyone else in this group is evil. I'm not a fan of the way that the votes on Quinn have gotten there. Araris wants to vote for a group member but didn't want to vote for someone who already had votes. Elandera doesn't give a reason, Stink doesn't like that Quinn has PMs with so many other people but didn't have a significant conversation with him. Meanwhile, everyone in the PM group except for Stick has turned on Maill, with Illwei not thinking that any of the people who contemplated killing them are suspicious enough to exe this turn. Of the other two people, leaning village on Biplet, nothing on TWS. Overall if Maill is evil that's it, much less reason to look at the other PM people. If Maill is village it's a bad situation, since there would be a bunch of people who could be evil that we can't afford to exe through until we found either an elim or a solid group of villagers. Elim Quinn is also largely final, village Quinn it's probably worth it to check Maill lethally, so V!Maill->E!Quinn is less likely than V!Quinn->E!Maill. I've lost comprehensibility including to myself by this point. More likely Maill evil, safer vote Quinn, can't afford to focus on Ash while all the discussion is on the PM group. Vote Quinn see how things work out in the last less than six hours I guess. Illwei (1) - Burnt Maill (5) - TWS, Matrim, Quinn, Tani, Biplet Quinn (4) - Araris, Elan, STINK, Devotary Ashbringer (2) - TJ Shade, Fifth Dannex (1) - Illwei
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So long as they didn't try to get people outside of the PM group to join with Striker, this doesn't seem too different from sharing suspicions in PMs. I don't think it's a good idea to vote on someone just because your PM group agreed and the person getting voted on deserves to have the reasons for that consensus addressed in thread, but this isn't the same thing as a PM group saying 'X is evil, everyone go vote for them'. Probably more of the problem is the 'we'll vote for Striker no matter what even if there's a decent chance he's village' thing. Why were Tani, Stick, and Quin your top village reads? Stick especially had been one of your suspicions for vote placement as of the beginning of D2 with gut village. Quinn you'd suggested D1 that you would be okay if she died and didn't fully retract and Tani you already knew her role when you claimed? So Illwei preferred XP over any other kill? They did mention a bad feeling about XP during the D2 vote and tried to vote XP today, but voted for Araris and then Pyro D2 which could have been higher priorities for her. For all the vote count things, it does tend to be true that elims will split their vote, including no-votes, especially if they aren't desperate to defend a teammate. That doesn't mean that people who cast unimportant votes either because all options are the same alignment or because the outcome is also concluded by the time the vote is cast are more or less likely to be evil. An attempt to save elim Ash would have happened well before the Pyro wagon started. The vote count was 7-3 Striker-Ash when Illwei voted Pyro, and then after Striker switched from Ash to Pyro, Ash was no longer the main alternative to Striker.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So you have PMs with Tani, Stick, Quinn, and Maill. You heard about the plan to kill Illwei from Tani but preferred a kill on Maill or XP? Did you talk about your kill preferences with anyone other than Tani who might have had their own suggestions?
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Do you know how active Bard was in PMs? That doesn't necessarily correspond to post count. If he was low-PM that does mean he was less likely to have told people his role and make him a better Seeker target. Did you and Maill know that Tani was a Mistborn when you were discussing kill targets, during D2 apparently if Striker was still alive at this point? So Matrim was also in the PM group and not just you, Maill, Tani, and Stick. Did he suggest Maill or XP? Going back to point 1, would Bard have known that you were a Mistborn and possibly protected you? The last few votes on Reading were largely unnecessary. At that point it wouldn't have mattered who we voted for regardless of Reading's alignment. Why are you grouping Araris with Mat and Dannex in the same sentence as you talk about people who didn't vote on one of the two main exes? Just because Araris was the first vote on Reading? Mat's order is correct, but doesn't really reflect the vote tally at the time the votes were cast. Ashbringer(5): Young Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris, Quinn Striker(3): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Maill Araris(1): Illwei Illwei(1): Tani Quinn(1): Ash Tani(1): Illwei This was as much as the vote against Ash ever was, and then after Fifth cast a vote here: Striker(4): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Maill, Quinn Ashbringer(4): Young Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris Araris(2): Illwei, Experience Illwei(1): Tani Gears(1): TJ Order(1): Ash . Striker was the main exe for the rest of the day with all of Ash's voters going away and Pyro springing up as an alternative to Striker. I'm not really a fan of all the votes coming off Ash, but if Ash is evil I'd be more suspicious of the people who tried to save him by voting Striker than those who initially voted Ash and moved away. However, it doesn't look like that's the thing that's happening today. Correct any of this if it's wrong. So we had D2: Tani claims Mistborn steel to Quinn and Maill. Quinn and Maill suggest Illwei and Striker to a PM with Tani, Stick, Quinn, and Maill discussing who Tani would kill that night. The PM group agrees to exe Striker apparently. N2 probably: Tani tells Illwei she's going to shoot them. Before N2 pt1 ends, Tani was going to shoot Maill instead. At some point Matrim gets looped in and gets told that XP would die instead. Mat prefers the Maill kill but doesn't oppose the XP kill. Was there anyone particularly supporting shooting XP?
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So if you're reading Stick as somewhat village and Striker and Ventyl are dead, does that make you reconsider which Books votes are more likely to be evil? Knowing if Illwei or Reading are evil could give a better understanding of when an elim shift to Books would have happened, unless they're both village in which case the elims had free reign to do whatever they wanted. Pocketing means something different than it used to, gets applied far more readily nowadays to a wider variety of non-hostile interactions, so this isn't an Experience specific thing. I also don't think it's likely that an elim rioter would expose their existence so pointlessly with the prospect of getting alignment scanned, regardless of whether or not XP is a rioter. I do also note that you're agreeing with Striker's read of you being strong elim. Striker wasn't the only or even the main alternative candidate to Books. The first vote on Books was when Illwei had four votes and Striker, Reading, and Quinn all had two. The Books wagon started gaining steam to bring it into a 3-3-3 tie with Reading and Illwei, with Striker still at two votes. The late push on Books ocurred when Reading was the main alternative with four votes and Striker remaining at two, and ultimately ended up with that same two. Striker was really the main one concerned about Ventyl and he's a villager. Mat was wary but that's not the same as suggesting a Coinshot hit Ventyl.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That's a lot of votes on Striker. I don't know why the elims would just throw away a teammate like that unless Ash was also evil and they decided Striker was expendable. Of course I know from personal experience that sometimes its less that the elims sacrifice a teammate than that they just don't speak up in time and get trampled by villagers. Anyway, if Striker is an elim then I'd say it's likely that either Ash is evil and/or the people fueling the Pyro mini train are evil. Seems like it would have been smarter to push someone who had votes in that latter case. It was also 5-4 Striker-Ash when Araris switched to Pyro with Illwei in third place with 2 votes, easily within vote manipulation range. A Striker-Ash-Araris-Illwei train seems like a reach though and combined with not finding Ash incredibly suspicious, out of the possibilities e!Striker/Ash, e!Striker/Ash/Araris/Illwei, and v!Striker, that last one seems the most likely. I don't know where that puts me since the Pyro votes just seem to be based on Araris's D1 read for something that I don't think indicates evil Pyro. We don't learn a whole lot from Pyro regardless of alignment compared to an evil Striker flip, but village Striker also doesn't say too much. Pyro wasn't suspicious of Books or Ventyl after their fates were sealed and floated an elim Coinshot theory if there were several village lurchers. 'If I'm vaguely suspicious I'm probably village' doesn't read well but is also pretty much true from what I remember. Or rather the strongest guarantee of Pyro being village is if they get exed early, so if they die today they'll be a villager but if they survive they're more likely to be an elim because that's how probability works. Time to test the variable alignment hypothesis I suppose, with Pyromancer. Since this is the last I'll be on for the cycle I guess I'll just find out what everyone else decides. I was going to do more for Sonnah but I'm stalling out on her. Imagine that they're having to work overtime now that there's only one alchemist in Fallion's Tears. Takes up a lot of time that was previously spent supplying Terris resistance groups. One might have expected there to be somewhat less urgency with The Lord Ruler dead, but in fact with the rebellion seeming like it has a chance instead of being doomed to failure against the might of a living god, now is the time to shatter the might of the noble houses forever, ideally with the help of high explosives.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I don't know what's going on with the vote counts but it should be this. Striker(5): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Maill, Quinn, Fifth Ashbringer(4): Young Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris Illwei(2): Tani, Quinn Araris(2): Illwei, Experience Gears(1): TJ Order(1): Ash I get why Ash wouldn't vote TJ, as there wasn't any chance of TJ being exed. And voting for Reading over other people with similar vote patterns because again Reading was a viable exe. It was a bit closer than I remember and it looks like Ash already got to this but I don't think this is unreasonable. I will note Ash voting someone who doesn't have any votes this cycle. And then retracted it so that's a wash. Now is voting for another 0 voter, but doesn't look serious. I wouldn't count on Ash feeling the need to self pres at 4-3 ~15 hours before rollover. Overall not feeling very enthusiastic about an Ash vote. Gears being evil shouldn't mean that Illwei, Quinn, and Striker are all village. I don't actually remember a lot of Gears elim games, but the TLR game I remember didn't have a lot of Gears defending villagers to my recollection.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    In a game with protection roles, the other consideration for elim kills is not wanting to hit someone who might be protected by a Lurcher. Not wanting to run into protection may have also played a role in the elims leaving Ventyl alone, while a low profile player like Ruby is less likely to be protected by someone else. Quinn and Biplet retracting took the pressure off Illwei more than Striker did I think. It was 4-3-2 Books-Illwei-Reading when Striker switched and one of the votes on Illwei was herself which couldn't really be expected to stick long term. The 3-3-3 when Stick voted was when there were a couple people who didn't want to break the tie/vote on Books. If everyone here was village an elim wouldn't have a strong incentive to meddle. I do remember Araris putting down stab votes D1 and Fifth going for the lengthy multiquotes regardless of alignment, so there's no strong reason either elim or village for this.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Elim soothers are more likely to use their powers freely than elim rioters, though an elim rioter who didn't vote would be able to use their abilities without detection. If the vote manipulation is the simplest three soothers and no rioters an elim soother is plausible. It was 6-4 when Ash voted and 7-3 when I voted, neither of which are particular danger for elim!Reading. If you think an attempt to save Reading was either late push on Books or early vote manip and that the manip is more likely, I'm not sure why you then think the late voters are the most suspicious. A village Reading means that all the later voting is less alignment indicative.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Ties ten hours before rollover when there's still plenty of time for things to change are fine, not end result ties. It's a bad idea to be around at this time. In the future, votes will most likely be several hours before rollover and then not changed. For this cycle though, I'm pretty much null on Reading. Voting on FlyingBooks should at least give more information.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Ventyl's claim might not have been smart, but it's likely that he's telling the truth or at least that he's not an elim. Even if he gets scanned as vanilla villager I wouldn't go immediately to gambitting elim. I believe Striker could have forgotten that a smoked individual would scan as a vanilla villager, since that's a new rule for this game. I don't think Books has played in a game with an infinite village kill role so I don't think there's precedent either way for not wanting to see the Coinshots kill every night. i do think killing every cycle is generally a good thing. Illwei exe is cooling down. They're defensive, but I think that's an Illwei thing since LG 73 Illwei was also aggressive/dismissive in defending themself D2. She's still self-voting; not sure why. Perhaps because she doesn't want to vote for Books, who's a main alternative. Ties at this point are fine. i do expect there to be less last minute voting than usual in this game because of when rollover is. I don't remember a lot of what Reading has done to provoke three votes. Looks like wants village Smokers to keep their clouds down, thinks Stick might be vanilla as part of not believing people would roleclaim so early. I don't think that's any particular reason to vote Reading over anyone else. I know Araris at least doesn't unvote D1 unless there's a good reason not to, and there isn't any particular reason Reading is village either.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Saltpeter production had taken way too long today. After Leas Fel's death a little over a week ago, obtaining the requisite nitric acid had become much more difficult, even though the man had been killed by a spike with no hints of acid being involved. Nevertheless, Sonnah had to work the old fashioned way, collecting bat guano from the nearest caves to crystallise, which had still taken her out of town for days since outsiders coming into the village had been discouraged. They'd come back right after Bartholomew's death, but decided to ignore this latest victim in favor of working on the explosives for their Terris contacts who had already been waiting long enough. They were afraid of new travel restrictions being imposed with the second spike murder, but hopefully she'd still be able to smuggle the explosives out to the dropoff point when she was done with them. Someone voting on an elim could easily be a target for an elim soother or rioter, in which case a coppercloud would be helpful. Village smokers usually get thrown in so that smoker != evil, and in this game vanillagers would ensure that vanilla village != smoked. That's why you shouldn't trust a claimed seeker who hasn't found an elim. A seeker who outs and causes the exe of an elim isn't guaranteed to a villager, but it's more likely. Before that, there's no reason to assume that someone who knows your role is a villager.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Alv, we didn't try to pass the SB to Archer because everyone would know Archer was evil when he wasn't able to teach anyone a specialisation and Books would have been implicated. It turned out not to matter who we gave it to because Ash got lucky and stole it first. It looks like we have been on the same team before; QF 29. The elims won that game without losing a single player. I was not trying to lie when I said that you only had one chalk when you died. I had counted every entry in your spreadsheet, including the duplicate turns, and got the wrong number. We were afraid that Kas was going to scan me, which would have been bad since I submitted the kill that cycle. Killing you that turn wouldn't have been helpful since Ruby drawing a LoW would be confirmable without your scan. Books did LoV+ you that turn. An unfortunate amount of planning took place in PMs instead of the doc because we procrastinated on picking actions/telling each other about them.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You're claiming that you took chalk N1 and N5 but never told Kas? Making sure that you were committing to the claim of scanning me so they'll know who to vote for next. Gears. I'm fine with a shortened cycle.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Well we know for a fact that Gears got a false result, since Gears didn't have any chalk according to Kas's spreadsheet, Araris claims to have roleblocked me, and nobody else has the LoM+ specialisation or rainbow chalk so they would have just seen no action taken instead of a LoM+ at Mist. If it's Gears claiming to have personally scanned me that's just a lie.
×
×
  • Create New...