Devotary of Spontaneity

Well the most suspicious thing about Illwei is that people showed up to defend her D1. They weren't really in danger until Mint's vote, so if she is evil the most likely teammates are Esooa and Steel. Esooa thinking Az/Ill were e/e and voting for the former makes sense for v!Esooa I think. I don't know what Steel's reasoning was. If neither of those two are evil I don't see any particular reason for Illwei to be an elim, and if either are that certainly increases the chances even if it isn't a guarantee. Not interested in playing the clearing/condemning people because of their role game. There's no guarantee Araris assigned roles based on how useful they would be to their respective alignments. TJ wanted to claim a tenement in thread, because if only one person did so they could get confirmed village by a tineye and protected by a lurcher before being shifted to a new location. Possibly could have worked, but would depend on their being a village tineye, lurcher, and location shifter willing to participate and then not an elim shifter. I don't necessarily think it was helpful to have dumped all the locations in thread because that can help the elims narrow down where people are, but also elim!you probably could have gotten away with not sharing that information and maybe even killing someone who claimed to you. Vanity vote presumably referring to anyone who didn't vote for Azmine or Illwei. I'm less suspicious of Mat today than I was D1. I think this is mostly because people have been voting on Mat for reasons that don't really make sense, although the thing that most felt like this was Archer's vote immediately after disagreeing with Mat's reads and that vote has since been retracted. TUO is voting for I think similar reasons as Archer did, I'm not sure why Illwei's going for Mat over Archer since their complaint was about the latter, and then Dalinar's vote made sense at the time but I'm willing to give Mat a pass for his first few comments this turn as being part of a gambit. I was going to vote for Archer at the end of this post. I see Illwei has already done so, which I guess makes sense since she indicated suspicion of him earlier. Archer does read like he cares more about exing someone than making sure that person is an elim. I think I will vote for Archer here but go back and check if this is something e!Archer does more than v!Archer.

I don't think an elim would have killed you even if you did claim to one. First of all, if you were lying about your location that's a wasted charge. Secondly, if you did die the identities of everyone you claimed to would be revealed and it would be possible to identify who the elim was. I voted at the end because I don't like to not vote. I voted on one of the leading trains because I wanted my vote to mean something, in this particular case that Illwei wouldn't die C1 like they did in LG 78 and LG 79. I don't know if that's the reason other people were willing to defend her/vote Azmine, but that's something worth looking into this turn.

It looks like the only thing Az has done is state an elim read of Illwei, who is the other main exe candidate (no longer true). Notable things about Illwei are positive in-thread interactions with Esooa and Steel, who are both voting for Az. Archer and Matrim had more combative interactions with Illwei, but look to be supporting each other. I don't think Azmine and Illwei would be e-e. I do think one of the people voting for Az is evil if Illwei is an elim. Meanwhile, I'm not a big fan of Mint's dismissal of an elim Coinshot as a possibility, but Illwei also did that and Mint's voting for Illwei so they probably can't both be evil. Azmine refusing to vote for Illwei 13 minutes before rollover even when doing so would save him is a village sign, given previous thought that the two aren't both evil. Oh, but now Az is voting for Illwei so this is moot. I think I'll vote Azmine and then take another look at the Illwei + supporters group if Az is village. I don't really want Illwei to die C1 for the 3rd? LG in a row.

Accurately claiming locations also allows elims with allomantic abilities to target villagers. Elim coinshots would be the most harmful, but soother roleblocks and seeker allomantic rolescan are also potential threats. The only useful allomantic abilities to get targeted for by a villager are the alignment scan, and to a lesser extent the role scan, and protection if the elims already know your location, which without a claim is pretty much only through the records scan.

I'll sign up as Ven. If you only lose a charge with an incorrect guess, then location roles would be infinite use and the elim kill could be used every cycle, among other things.

Double posting to note that if @Elkanah is village, he knows that at least one of the people voting for me is an elim. Also that solo elim Lance Elandera would still win this cycle with a mix, but I'm not going to worry about that.

If Elandera was an elim Lance, the game would probably be over now. She could be evil and lying about this, or a village Lance and our best chance. Archer does make a good point about Elkanah voting for Elandera D1 when the game is short enough that it wouldn't make sense for an elim to do that to a teammate. He supposedly rolled for three people, which I think were himself, Elandera, and Archer since he wasn't suspicious of Steel. This also means that Archer wants me to vote for him, since if the Els aren't teammates then Archer would have to be evil. Village Archer obviously votes for me. Village Elandera doesn't have a conclusive reason to decide whether Archer or I are evil, but I see that voting for someone with votes in an attempt to kill them is condemning. Village Elkanah knows he's not e/e with Elandera but doesn't have much beyond that. Unless someone wants to counterclaim Lance I'll go with Archer. If Elandera is evil, all those times rolling thug paid off in being able to lie about it. Or maybe we have a sniper or something, which would be fun.

Lotus not even trying to make gem-related comments happens more often when she's evil.

Do you want to argue for two village Flightleaders, one of which lied about using their ability? Unless TUO was a Sniper kill, this is true. Any particular reason I would have been NKed? Did you vote for me?

So it looks like Archer was lying about being a Flightleader.

Everyone's shown up except for Droughtbringer, but very few posts. It's like we're already several cycles into the game and nobody knows what to do anymore. The elims don't get a doc, but I still think Archer would have known how the kill worked as an elim. I don't think Elandera's Lance claim is super trustworthy, but a villager would be more threatened by two votes than an elim and we'll be able to see by next cycle if anyone counterclaims her. Elkanah hasn't come back I see. More substantive in the one post than TUO or Lotus, but not evil I'm thinking. Steeldancer had the worst tonal post, especially now that elkanah has shown up after being poked, so I'll vote for him.

Two elims sure. There absolutely doesn't have to be any of any role. I'd say it's likely that some roles are not present. I would not rule out elim Sniper or Lance, especially if the second elim is roleless. The extra kill especially would be helpful since the odds of them being able to kill someone are: six villagers, four submissions, someone only dies if they get two votes; elim 2 guessing randomly has a 1/3 chance to match with their first vote and a 2/5 chance with their second vote, so a 60% chance of killing someone overall? The elims can submit a kill and use a role action simultaneously, hence "This targets both the elim kill and any other action that elim might be taking". The elims may well choose to have a roleless player submit the kill so as to avoid getting outed by scouts, but we can't guarantee that since being seen targeting someone who dies is already strong grounds for execution. IMP and Flightleader are decent roles for the elims if they don't have one of the first two. Scout would still get one use for the elims, which would mostly be helpful for not hitting a village Lance, but probably is better for the village. Overall probably only one elim role and one roleless but I don't think we can guess which role that is.

I'll sign up as Velveteen, callsign Vandal, who infamously ejected from a damaged fighter but was allowed to keep flying since the acclivity rings were salvageable.

You can retroactively use bluetext for "real life events/situations that affect your ability to play".

Araris didn't actually change his vote, but did have Mat as a higher suspicion than me. Mat did indeed sit on yesterday's results, but then so did everyone else, timezone issues notwithstanding. I think I would be willing to vote for either Szeth or Mat, who appears to be his highest trust. Szeth's reads don't seem to be that of someone who drew conclusions from reading posts, though that may just be me being biased because I think I have made AI or at least noteworthy posts this game, unlike most games. I think Szeth for now, see what the votes look like closer to rollover. Bonfire Day Six: We lost two good soldiers yesterday and confirmed that Awakeners are present within our party. Hopefully there are few enough of them that we can still root them out while maintaining operational security, but in case of failure I must prepare a message for King Dedelin. One of the perks of being in charge of the effort to prevent outgoing messages is that I have the best chance of sending my own message without it being intercepted. Meanwhile, I must prepare for the fight that will surely ensue even if we manage to catch these Hallandren agent. Missive: Gatemaker – King Dedelin Our mission has been compromised. Operatives in the employ of Hallandren have begun to assassinate members of our expedition. As of the time of this writing, six days after our journey began, I believe they have not managed to warn the dye fields, but I cannot ignore the possibility that the Hallandren army will be waiting for us or that enough of our agents will be picked off as to render our operation inviable. In case of mission failure, we need an alternative strategy. Our armies cannot match Hallandren’s on the field, an even victory in a guerilla war costs Hallandren merely their unused corpses and the souls of their poor, while we suffer unacceptable losses of people, land, and resources. I hereby recommend reaching out to Pahn Kahl independence movements with trade offers while our diplomats avoid open hostilities with Hallandren for as long as possible. We cannot supply overt aid to the Pahn Kahl without provoking conflict, but we can let them know that they have an ally in resisting tyranny and supply them with money, weaponry, intelligence, and personnel as they request. We cannot afford a failed Pahn Kahl armed rebellion, but unrest at home will force Hallandren to negotiate with us rather than face a war on two fronts. While they have the military potential to do so and win, their dependence on Lifeless armies to fight carries with it some glaring vulnerabilities. First, their Lifeless commanders cannot give them complicated orders without risking their lives by accompanying the army. Those commanders can be assassinated, or preferably forced to give up their codes, should it come to war. Second, Hallandren’s citizens will be reluctant to fight should their own lives, instead of Lifeless, be threatened by war. Open warfare is still to be avoided, as even in the absence of further orders, tens of thousands of Lifeless unleashed on Idris spells our doom, but enough internal resistance to conflict will convince the Court of Gods to negotiate as they cannot long survive without public support. Enclosed is a list of prominent Pahn Kahl known to support independence as of our latest intelligence reports. Be warned that many Pahn Kahl may support the Hallandren Empire, either willingly or because they feel they have no other choice. Hopefully this will be enough for your other agents to get started in the event of my team’s failure, or even if we succeed. An independent Pahn Kahl that views Idris favorably would be a valuable ally. P.S. In the event that I do not return, and should you weather this current crisis, may I once again ask you to consider my social suggestions? I am sure Austre would approve.

For tossing a random vote on Liranil, then not mentioning it again when she was actually up for death. This makes sense for Araris, less so for Steel. My original vote was thinking Steel and Liranil could be teammates, but this was no longer a suspicion by the time I decided to keep my vote on Steel.

I was around a little under two hours before rollover. I could not be on at any time after that. I kept my vote on Steel because in the absence of anyone bothering to save Liranil, I thought Steel was more suspicious than her. I counted on votes being cast in the 90+ minutes I couldn't be there because only half the players vote. Of those, four of them were seemingly based on nothing while Araris's appeared intent on making sure somebody died with no particular interest in the target's alignment. Since people frequently vote close to rollover, I assumed the vote tally would change and perhaps someone different would die. The fact that it didn't should have been an indication to the people who actually were around at rollover that Liranil was more likely to be village.

I did expect someone else to vote, yes, if not necessarily on Steel. The votes on Ash, Striker, and you didn't seem to be based on anything, and I thought there was a decent chance that either Steel was evil or that someone would attempt to save Liranil.

Liranil(2): Steel, Araris Archer(1): Matrim Striker(1): Aureole Steel(1): Devotary Ash1): Szeth Steel opening up the game with a vote on a teammate made as much sense as anything, which is why I voted on him. Now that it seems like Liranil will die for real, that seems less likely even though there's still two hours to go and a lot of votes will probably happen in that time frame, easily enough to get someone else killed if Liranil is evil. She, Striker, and Danex are the only ones not to have posted so far, which does mean that it would be a little odd to move a vote off her without actual suspicion for another player. Danex also hasn't been voted on, which appears contrary to Szeth's claim of there being nobody left to poke. I won't be around to make another post, but I think I'm going to stick with Steel and see whether support for exing Liranil continues..

I see Liranil has two votes on her already and that two people thought there was a possibility to vote for no exe. I think Steel is evil because he hates cats and his poor teammate Liranil. Bonfire Day Five: Confirmation that Hallandren has agents placed within our company to prevent us from completing this mission. I'm choosing to see this as a positive for now. If these agents are willing to break their cover to sabotage our efforts, these dye fields indeed represent a great vulnerability, but the lack of an open assault means that we have not provoked Hallandren enough for them to declare war. Of course, the fact that people in Hallandren's employ know what we're planning means we could easily arrive at the dye fields only to walk into an army of Lifeless, even if we act now to prevent all outgoing communication. We'll have to keep everyone together and stay on the lookout for any Awakened constructs or animal Lifeless who could convey a message back to Hallandren. We can't even warn Idris that we've been compromised and that they need a backup plan if any one of us could be in the enemy's service.

Don't think I'm Link anymore? Interesting mistake. I suppose you did say you trusted Waffle and Quill if he had a PM N7. Although you then said you thought there were 7 elims, which would mean that making a PM is not clearing. Waffles switched pretty quickly too. You can make one action per turn, so someone could absolutely make a PM during the day and submit a kill at night. They would only be caught out for not making a PM if they didn't hit Link. Well looks like I'm going to die. Guess I don't have to decide between quill and Waffles. I'll still vote WhiffleWaffles. And use mighty bananas, that'll be that. Quillin(1): Ash Devotary(4): Alvron, Waffles, Steel, quill Edit: Eh, I guess it's likely the bananas will go to a villager so I'll leave it.

The only way a knight's actions can be confirmed is if someone else tried to target the same person and got redirected. I don't think PMs can be redirected, so even if the 'knight's' actions for all seven cycles were released it's unlikely we'd be able to confirm any of them. If PMs can be redirected, there's a better chance. We definitely won't have Link claiming though.

Right, of course, so there cannot be anyone who's confirmed village. Well probably what would happen if Link claimed to this Knight is that he'd be telling the elims and thus immediately die. Even in the miraculous case where quill and this Knight are village, there's no way for Link to get in contact with them without trusting an outside party or quill guessing correctly. I doubt that the village would have Mipha and two Knights while the elims have no protection. Also, apparently Knights cannot self-target.

So N2. There's not really such a thing as confirmed village; even if TJ did scan this person N2 and told Dannex, that information would have died with both of them N3 unless they were willing to tell someone who wasn't cleared. And even then, 'Tj/Dannex told me this person was scanned as a villager' is only trustworthy to the person who directly received that message.

If we did have an Urbosa we could count on that gives us an extra chance at having Link not die, but I don't think we know enough to guarantee finding the elim today by claiming. If Knights can self-target, it's possible they decided they were more likely to die than purple and then Kayla. The knight role says they can target a player, as opposed to Mipha who has to target another player. If Knights can't self-target then kayla shouldn't have died unless there's currently two elims left or Yeet/Mist is the elim and thus the knight likelihood drops sharply.