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Devotary of Spontaneity

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Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Being okay with someone she didn't think was village being able to make an item from a role that could have 'bad, destructive outcomes' is something. How would your opinion of Araris change based on Mat, Stick, and Karnatheon's potential alignments alignments? Presumably every death will have a delayed flip, and we can't afford to only have a suspicion exe every other cycle. An elim knows whether the elim team is all Epics, but a villager doesn't regardless of whether or not they're an Epic.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You have no other elim suspicions? Is your hesitance to vote Stick because you want to see Mat's flip or do you have a reason to read her as village? I'm not feeling good about Araris but that's mostly related to suspicions of Stick (village gut read, leaves Stick out of his PoE) so I'm not going to vote for him right now.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    What about this doesn't make sense to you? The people discrediting the _Stick_ vote can't all be evil, but it's so weird, especially when we don't have a Matrim flip yet. Devotary (3): Aman (I think), Archer, JNV Striker (2): STINK, Thaidakar Araris (1): Experience Dannex (1): _Stick_ Experience (1): Araris Karnatheon (1): Striker Szeth (1): Kasimir _Stick_ (1): Devotary
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That's fair. I was thinking that with v/e Mat/Stick we would get extra votes on Mat to save Stick e/v my vote makes it easier for elims to take advantage of an opportunity to save Mat, v/v would be more scattershot, e/e someone might try an alternative. That does get confused with the votes on Stick not seeming to be based on anything. I think there's a decent chance that it's not v/v with how much push there was to save honestly both of them but mostly Stick in terms of votes and then Mat just from Karnatheon's riot. I think Karn voters should be mostly okay unless Mat/Stick are e/e. The Karn push I see mostly as an effort to avoid killing Mat, and it would be so much simpler to switch to Stick instead if it's e/v. No. I don't think most of those votes were about things Stick said. More in the 'note for later' category at least for me like thinking a belief that epics are elims is elim indicative, and a village read for Archer based on his role claim. I have no idea why Tani voted Stick. Striker's votes can't be counted as coming from a village mindset. Mat's vote happens 24 hours before rollover which is strange for what almost looks like a self-preservation vote.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There were a bunch of votes on Stick, and I wanted to see if there was anything she'd said that was provoking those votes. I kept my vote on Stick because the thread response to her being in the lead was to add more votes to Mat, and the counter to that push was on an entirely different person. I am defending Mat because when two people are in danger and significantly more effort is put into protecting one of them, that one is more likely to be elim. If Mat/Stick were v/e, I'd expect elims to have been perfectly happy voting on Stick instead. Karnatheon voting for Mat while intending all along to swing votes onto Stick does complicate things but e/e Mat/Karnatheon would still be a tie at best without more votes for Stick. I'd prefer to see Mat's alignment before voting for Stick again, but the more people pop up to say the votes on Stick were wrong the more I feel like that's a good vote.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That only applies if the people voting for Stick were elims, since a villager's level of vote volatility doesn't say anything about the alignment of the people they vote for. Matrim we should find out about. Striker could be lying about being a neutral. Illwei I'm not currently thinking is evil, but would reevaluate with v!Stick. Aman and Tani did unvote Stick towards the end.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Do you get told who you ended up rioting or would everybody just have to guess? Archer's role would still be useful for getting information from someone who was elim killed, although a villager with useful information still has to decide whether to trust Archer and then any information learned gets filtered through him. @Archer can you ask questions of everyone who died in the previous cycle or do you have to pick one? Karnatheon being a Rioter gives a reason to switch off from Archer since a lone vote that gets removed with evidence of Rioter activity puts them on a Rioter shortlist. Just that one vote manipulation would bring it from 7-4-4 to 5-5-4, which is dangerous for e/e Karnatheon/Stick. We should learn something about e/e Karnatheon/Mat soon since both Mat and Archer's claimed roles appear to only work for one cycle. Why don't you like the votes on Stick? Is it just your gut village read of her from last cycle? Is that also why you removed her from the pool of voters?
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    This meant 'If you picked a random Epic and a random non-Epic, the Epic has a higher likelihood of being evil'. Archer's claim thus put him in a category of players that has a higher percentage of elims, regardless of whether there are more village Epics than elim Epics.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    that doesn't mean I should immediately unvote when I get a response. Stick did eventually indicate a strong desire to live, but I also wanted to see how other people would react to Stick having votes and it turns out that some people voted for Mat while others created an entirely new train on Karnatheon while net votes on Stick decreased, which reads as people not wanting Stick dead. The vote manips tell a different story, with a bunch of votes being removed from Mat and Karnatheon while one was added to Stick which suggests did want to save the former two and were okay with the latter dying so I don't know what's going on. I wanted to see what cool and fancy role Mat had that wouldn't belong to an elim but didn't think it would be a good idea for him to actually claim if he could softclear himself like that with e.g. an alignment scanner. So if an elim tried to kill you it would bounce off and kill an elim, but you don't want this to happen because you want the elims alive? How do you feel about keeping the village alive?
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Why do you think e!Karn would decide to show up an hour and a half before rollover to intervene in v/v Mat/Stick when they'd previously claimed they probably wouldn't be around for rollover? It would have been so easy for e!Karn to stay out of it in that case, and if Mat/Stick are not v/v we were better off exing one of them. Matrim's Dice (5): Experience, Ashbringer, Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Thaidakar the Ghostblood (6) Karnatheon (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Tani, Amanuensis, Karnatheon (4) _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity (4) Kas's claim means one vote missing from Matrim, three votes missing from Karnatheon, one vote added to Stick. Assuming rioter's votes get cancelled that's one missing vote accounted for, then simplest by emotional allomancy standards is a second rioter voting for Matrim or Karnatheon moved a vote to Stick and then one vote on either Matrim or Karnatheon was just cancelled outright.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Sivera had always heard that Nightform helped you predict the future, but in the years since first acquiring it she’d learned that it was more about understanding the present. When you could see all the forces in play, knowing how they would all interact became much easier. Nightform was still frustratingly vague and incomplete, consistently failing to capture every aspect of a situation. She could detect that new variables had entered play aboard the Survivor, but no specifics beyond that. This time with her mistspren Ephemeral-yet-Eternal by her side, she sent out a request for a status report. Though the same hand wrote the response, Sivera knew from the first strokes that Moash was controlling it this time. The ancient mavset-im had mastered writing to Rhythm, and she saw that he had chosen the Rhythm of Excitement. Sivera hummed Appreciation. “We could be helpful up there Phem, but Larkin and Moash can handle themselves better than any other operative I’m responsible for. We can count on them to give us the time we need.” “How are our other operatives doing? Kerian was supposed to get a new batch of trainees today and Hnawi is checking up on our aluminum production.” Sivera concentrated on her Nightform powers. “I can’t sense anything wrong with the aluminum, although all that aluminum makes it hard to tell. At least one of those trainees is a Confederation plant. Can you-” but they were already gone. Sivera hummed Amusement. It was nice to have such an efficient spren. Then she began to cycle through the rest of her operatives to see whether any more of them would require assistance. A long campaign was ahead regardless of the outcome on the Survivor.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Enough push for Matrim that I'm still going to keep my vote on Stick. I don't see a good reason for e!Karnatheon to suddenly show up to vote for Mat unless Mat/Stick are v/e, in which case Stick's still a better choice. E/E suddenly getting derailed onto a third target would be certainly something, and I don't think it's that likely considering Aman's one of those votes and he drove the Mat train. In a v/v train, Karnatheon easily could have sat on Archer, which sometimes gets scrutinized later on but I don't remember whether v!Karnatheon stays on sidetrains. I don't think Mat's claimed role confirms him as village since role recovery is plenty helpful for the elims even if all Epics were elims which does not seem to be the case. I do see the case For Science!, which would apply if Mat is evil and we learn the elim team isn't exclusively village, but if Mat is village we don't learn a lot about gamestate except to reaffirm Archer's roleclaim. I did want to see whether people would defend Stick and it kind of seems like they have, with extra votes popping up for Matrim and an effort to save him swinging onto a completely different person instead of on Stick. Edit: @Matrim's Dice I don't see any added italics in your reads list.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The role Archer claimed only works so long as alignment is not revealed.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    What Mat claimed is the role I was thinking of to explain why a dead person's alignment wouldn't be revealed immediately.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I did also assume that, which is why the second part is more important. Still keeping the vote until I can see how things play out in the next several hours. If Mat's claim is true I don't know if I want to vote for him.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If you are an Epic on an all-Epic team, it would be easy for you to assume that of course all the elims would be Epics, just look at the name. More that you didn't seem worried about being tied in stark contrast to Mat and wanted to see if adding votes would change that.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That would seem to mesh with Archer's roleclaim if dead players don't have their alignments and/or roles revealed for the cycle when their cells could be harvested. A logical inference from Archer's claimed role even. Thematically a village/neutral role unless the elims aren't all Epics.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    What has Stick said? I will flag her seeming to have a role (asking questions, although it also seems she was asking questions that she knew wouldn't get answered, e.g. are there neutrals so is potentially roleless) + instinctively assuming all elims are Epics. That's not really provable unless Stick dies though. She believes Archer's claim makes him likely village which does make sense but will be reexamined if he's evil. Much less concerned about the prospect of being exed than Mat is. Let's see if that applies when she's in the lead. Ashbringer, _Stick_. _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, Tani, Striker, Devotary Matrim (4): Ashbringer, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Kasimir Experience (2): _Stick_, Araris Illwei (1): Archer Ash (1): Experience Archer (1): Karnatheon I kind of want Mat to claim but that probably not a good idea since it would make v!Mat a target but likely couldn't clear him and E!Mat could just make something up or even be truthful. @Experience, what about looking at Ash's posts made you vote for him?
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It can be useful for both villagers and elims to talk to dead people, especially in a blackout game. Someone who dies has a chance to spill all the information they know, which could be good or bad depending on Archer's alignment. It would be risky for E!Archer to claim V!Epic if he didn't know whether V!Epics existed. The only time Mat was D1'd recently looks to be QF57 as a villager (which did happen to be a game where every villager had a confirmed good role. I don't think role claims will be super helpful in determining alignment in this game unless there's something like a role scanner + all elims are Epics) when both elims voted for him. Harder to tell with that one since those were the only two votes but Mat did push back against the second one and mentioned that he was behaving differently than if he was an elim. He was also willing to die to ensure that somebody got exed. Anagrams: oncemum 1, 2, 3 harkaqueet 2, 8 labileturninivy 4, 12 interestediga 3, 4, 6
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Nominally at least all the Corrupted Epics would be Epics which would make the elim Epic/village Epic ratio much higher than the elim Regular/village Regular ratio of 0. In practice it doesn't have to work like that and I wouldn't clear anyone for not being an Epic but I can't see the Corrupted Epics not having Epics. And multiple Epics seems more likely than one stupidly overpowered High Epic + minions, though I guess a blackout would be a good place to throw in something like that.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'd still expect a higher percentage of Epics than regulars to be elims. People being on the Corrupted Epics team without actually beings Epics would be funny though.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    To be clear, Sonia is not an Epic, or at least wouldn't claim to be when she's part of an organization whose whole purpose is killing Epics. It's a bold move for you to claim Epic in a game where the elim team is listed as being (Corrupted) Epics.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Reckoners: Famously not Epics. Except for the ones that are of course, but it's still quite rare for an Epic to be anything other than self-serving, especially in 1960.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Sonia heard someone address her and flinched involuntarily, before turning to see who had spoken. He wasn't someone she recognized, which was good. Chances were very low that he knew her from before her Reckoner days. Someone knowing her name was always a potential threat though, someone who might try to keep tabs on her after the job was done. She might have to leave quickly after whoever was behind the earthquake had been taken care of. Speaking of which, she should start looking for a culprit. The Weatherman Ashbringer seemed a likely suspect, as the cold had no visible effect on him. Either he was an Epic and should be taken out on principal, or he had acclimated to the cold from recent presence in Antarctica. Or maybe he just had really good cold weather gear, in which case finding out where it came from would still be a positive.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I don't get to unilaterally decide what prompted the rebellion. Kavar or anyone else can have a different view of what specifically the Confederation has been doing recently. Sending in Mistborn saboteurs and assassins disguised as a diplomatic envoy to a celebration isn't a good look though.
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