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Elenion

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Everything posted by Elenion

  1. Elenion
    My single highest-rep post is one word. In a thread about the invasion of Aimia, I posted "Aliens."
  2. Elenion
    Hold on, brain wave: if Brightness had made a PM between a Thief and the elims, it would have closed upon Brightness' death, leaving the elims in the dark about the Thief's most recent actions, which Araris knows about. That makes me pretty sure Araris is the real deal, meaning that Jon is lying to us. @Seonid To make sure, a Hazekiller can block a Thief and would become injured from it, right?
  3. Elenion
    Exactly. I've been around for a good amount of time, and I'm still learning new tactics!
  4. Elenion
    As I see it, there are four explanations for the events last night. From most to least likely in my opinion, they are: 1. Jon blocked the elim kill. Results: Jon village, Araris evil, Thief working with the elims 2. Jon blocked somebody else and no elim kill. Results: Jon evil (lying about Araris), Araris neutral Thief 3. Elim!Jon blocks own teammate, not Araris. Results: Jon evil and lying about Araris, Araris neutral Thief 4. Jon and Araris both evil Results: one if the two would be bussed, the other would become trusted. Not wise, IMO, and I really doubt the elims would do that. Therefore, if we lynch Araris and he's evil, then Jon is almost certainly village. If we lynch Araris and he's a Thief, Jon is almost certainly evil. If we lynch Jon and he's village, Araris is almost certainly evil. If we lynch Jon and he's evil, Araris is almost certainly village. The good news: between today and tomorrow, we're practically guaranteed to lynch an active elim.
  5. Elenion
    The problem is that you were blocked and there was no elim kill. That suggests you're not a neutral. Edit: but I do see that my theory of a fellow elim being a thief is wrong. What likely happened is that Brightness made a PM at random, and the thief claimed, as many neutral players would in order to not be elim killed in the future.
  6. Elenion
    If you want a great example of a neutral role, look up the Mad Prince from LG24. His win con was to get all those with the Noble role killed in some way, after which he gained a bunch of abilities. He was completely neutral, but could be converted, and Alv brought him over to the Derethi.
  7. Elenion
    I think Araris is using the old role-substitution ploy. Because the write-up confirms that Jon blocked an action, and accounting for Yitzi and I injuring each other we know that Jon wasn't blocked by another Hazekiller, that means Jon must have blocked Araris. But assuming Araris is an elim, he knows the roles and actions of all of his teammates, and so it would be easy for him to pretend to be a role of a teammate, and have knowledge of whom his teammate stole from. Also, I'm just going to throw my role out there so we can plan around it: in addition to being a Hazekiller, I'm a Hemalurgic Rioter. Currently I'm sitting on one charge of Zinc, and if anyone wants to pass me another I'd be much obliged.
  8. Elenion
    One tactic that I would suggest for future situations like that is to take the active suspect first. If BB had turned out village, DA couldn't put in a kidnap due to inactivity, so the village takes DA the second cycle for the win with one Element left. But going for DA first gives BB the final kidnap opportunity that he needed.
  9. Elenion
    I'll join as Plato Andersen. He's a scrawny fellow, better with Cytonics than most because he has to be to make up for his lack of brawn. He left his homeworld after the woman he loved rejected him for another man, and the other man subsequently ended up in a spaceship accident. Although Andersen didn't actually have anything to do with it, rampant suspicion and prejudice forced him to find work on an outer platform. His life's work is to prove his innocence, but there are few ways to fight public opinion. Hopefully I'll have time to write some in-character RP this game!
  10. Elenion
    What a mess! *laughs* Now we just have to figure out who targeted who. I Hazekilled Yitzi, acting on a gut feeling that the elims would have had a lesser-active player perform the kill. @Yitzi2 @JondesuWhom did you guys target? Edit: I meant lower-profile, not lesser-active. Lesser-active elims are unreliable killers, while lower-profile elims are good at not getting scanned or blocked. Hence my targeting of Yitzi.
  11. Elenion
    And I usually run a character who loves his alcohol, so it's funny that you of all of us ended up as the drunkard this game. I, like Jon, am going to wait for the information from tonight's kill before making my analysis. If I get killed tonight, you have basically everything I know / have reasoned out.
  12. Elenion
    I'm going to go out on a limb here and just throw out some guesses as to the organization of the elim team right now: They probably have at least one of [Meta, Araris, Jon, Len] as an experienced member. I'm putting myself in there because Jon would comment that I should be in there if I left myself out. They also likely have at least one inactive, so one or more of [HH, Manukos, Drought, Sart]. They most likely had 4 members, according to the 20% rule, meaning three still living. By probability, one is inactive, but only one. That leaves two active elims. Generally, an elim team doesn't have more than 2 new or less-active players, so there's another reason why I don't think there are 2 inactive elims. Most likely, Cloud and Meta are not both elims, because Cloud has been tunneling on Meta. Last cycle I reasoned out that I expect that at least one of Araris and Jon is an elim. I'm currently reading very village on Flash and slightly village on Meta. Throwing this disorganized mess all together, that leaves me thinking that one of [Jon, Araris] is evil, one of [Meta, Yitzi, Cloud] is evil, and one inactive is evil. Because we have 4 inactives, I don't think the best course of action would be to start lynching them, because we have a decent chance of just killing another villager and making ourselves even worse off. Besides, an inactive elim doesn't help the others at all, except as a body for the win condition. Currently we can lose 5 villagers before things are tied up. When it's a less-unholy time of night, I'm going to be taking a good hard look at Jon and Araris. Until then, I'm going to bed.
  13. Elenion
    Guilty. I'm older than Jon but came waaay after Meta and Araris. Those two are dinosaurs. With you being an elim in LG33 with Alv and Orlok, I'd be surprised if WGGs didn't get discussed at least once. Still, I'm going to follow Meta's judgment here. Maybe not as far as to agree with him that there's only one active elim, but I've been suspicious of Cluny's role for multiple cycles. I think he's got the largest chance of being an elim of the living players. After him I'll be looking into which of Araris/Jon is likely the elim, because I've got a gut feeling that one of them is.
  14. Elenion
    I'm fairly sure that one of Araris, Jon, and Meta is evil, because I doubt Seonid would form an elim team that didn't have at least one more-experienced player on it. Backing that up is the non-kill N0, which I've theorized in that past was either for info deprivation or to give all players a chance to participate, both strategies that tend to be suggested by experienced players. The question is: who? I'm leaning away from Meta, because he suspected Flash. You'd think that an elim who knew Flash was village would say they were reading village on him, to try to win his trust, but Meta did the exact opposite. That reads to me like he had no idea of Flash's alignment, and is therefore a villager. I don't have too much time, but one more question: @Cluny the Scourge how do you know what a WGG is? That's the kind of thing that often is mentioned in elim docs but rarely in the thread.
  15. Elenion
    I like this idea, but you're forgetting that the House has to take a cut, too. If they used your numbers a player playing the game an infinite amount of times would break even, leaving no net profit for the House. What if we threw in a 5 to 10% casino fee deducted from all winnings? Also, all of this talk of gambling makes me want to run another gambler character, like that last one with the wine bottle that I killed Lopen to get back.
  16. Elenion
    @Devious Nice mustache, comrade. In Soviet cosmere, mustache grow you!
  17. Elenion
    My understanding has it that the Glyph of Rending keeps the Chalklings two-dimensional but allows them to bite/slash/attack three-dimensional objects. Then again, it's been a couple months since I read Rithmatist. With standard Rithnatist chalk, I doubt the object would have enough structural integrity to hold its own weight. But if you formulated a special chalk that could hold itself... I dunno on that one. That might be a good question for Brandon.
  18. Elenion
    A group of bridgemen save a Highprince's life. What happens next will astound you! Murder and mayhem: what REALLY happened inside the Tower? Kaladin: "I don't care if she is betrothed to another man!"
  19. Elenion
    Whoever that guy is, he bears a serious relationship to my econ professor.
  20. Elenion
    Warrior. Few people need to be a scholar in a pinch, but if I get mugged that warrior stamp would be dead useful. Would you rather be a Drab in Hallandren or a plantation Skaa?
  21. Elenion
    Dadgum. Cluny
  22. Elenion
    I doubt the elims would have killed a Rioter based on role alone. More likely they killed him as a fear kill, to silencd him, or to cast suspicion on those who suspected him. Lopen being a Rioter was just a bonus.
  23. Elenion
    That was an Ecth thing, not my response. You can keep it.
  24. Elenion
    Do you mean N2 and N3? We don't know who they're killing tonight. But anyway, good point about them not coordinating with a Metallurgist. And that puts us back to the Seeker conundrum: do they have one, or not? I'm leaning yes, and so my vote is again going on Cluny.
  25. Elenion
    I'm a proponent of creative problem solving. Things like your #1 are not only allowed, but encouraged.
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