Elenion
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Everything posted by Elenion
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In the aftermath of the Kynedath lynch I got suspicious because you had been in agreement with Kynedath about a lot of points, such as suspecting me. Then BR rightly got on my case for not giving her a fair shake in analysis, and when I put my vote on you the cycle Caesura was lynched I was 75% sure you were evil, for the reasons I specified in your post. You knew too much about the elims: how many there were in the abstainers, that they rotated the kill around instead of using a less-active player, etc. I took my vote off of you because I knew I could get more support and field better evidence in a Caesura lynch. Jon, Eternum and I had a trusted villagers group PM, and BR also PMed the three of us and told us she was aciding you because since she was village she knew you were evil, and so Eternum had me convince you into getting an item. That way you couldn't perform any actions, but on the chance that BR was evil your successfully getting the item would be proof that BR had lied. The second you complained that you had been acided, that cleared BR, and your own vote implicated you with 100% certainty of being an elim.
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To attribute the entire scheme out: --BR and Eternum came up with the idea of BR blocking Monster independently --I came up with the idea of collecting action claims in general before Eternum suggested it to me, but... --Eternum extended that to having me coordinate item grabs in PMs --BR was the first to call a Steel, Monster, Caesura trio IIRC --I wrote the contingency plans and how to interpret the action results, but they weren't needed
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Good game villagers and villains! This was a really close one, and had the coinflip gone the other way I would not have been surprised had the game been an elim sweep. I especially want to commend @Caesura for a great first game. My one regret is that Mr. Klenien wasn't able to get home and marry his fiance , but given the state of the soldiers after the final write-up that might not have been possible anyway. Also I'm stealing Kynedath's quote from the elim doc, "Only if Len doesn’t convince the village to kill me out of pure unadulterated passion," for my signature.
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Well played, elims. Let's see how this ends.
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1. The elim kill went through C2, but Kynedath, Steel, BR, and Monster couldn't have done it. Since me, Jon, and Eternum are village, that leaves only you. 2. You voted along with Kynedath last cycle, nearly causing an elim win. While a villager could have done that, an elim certainly would have. 3. My "3 assumptions" logic on the previous page shows how we can account for only 2 of the 3 elims in the other 7 players. That's the really solid stuff.
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@BrightnessRadiant Caesura's C3 action was scanning Orlok. She saw him do the Steel steal.
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I'll make a vote tally so I can see how things stand right now: BR (0): Jon1, Eternum1, Len1, Monster1 Monster (1): BR1, Len2 Caesura (4): Jon2, Eternum2, Len3, Monster2
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Caesura is the formal term for a dramatic pause for emphasis. If Caesura isn't elim, the game is over. Same with any other mislynch. Right now I think we have 5 villagers and 3 elims, so if we lynch a villager and the elims kill another then it'll be 3/3 and we can't lynch any more elims. @MonsterMetroid Is there any way I could convince you to go for an item tonight? It doesn't have to be a gun; I just would like to see as many players as possible get items so they have alibis for their action tonight. That goes for everyone else as well: please, go for an item tonight. If you're concerned that someone else is going for the same item you want to go for, PM me and I'll find out for sure. Most everyone trusts me at this point. Oh, also, since it looks like I'm getting support for my crackpot plan... Monster Caesura. Gotta put my vote where my mouth is.
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Your church asks you to write attacks for them? What do you attack? About Bribes, I'm investigating them right now. Doy, forgot about BR's vote. It doesn't tell us much about her alignment, but she did vote. Your defensive logic looks sound, hence why I'm changing my focus to Caesura. I do have another point in BR's favor though: she had to have passed her Bribe to Orlok last night, which doesn't fit with what she would have done had she known Orlok was going to die.
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Hey, I just had an absolute crackpot theory, but I think it will work. Assumption 1: Len, Jon, and Eternum have no chance of being elim. Proof: If even one of us had voted differently, Kynedath would have lived and I would have died. Assuming 4 elims, the elims would have reached parity and won. Assumption 2: Either BR or Monster are elim. Proof: Someone had to have put in the kill N1. Most of us are cleared, Eternum can't be elim due to assumption 1, so that leaves the 2 of them. They aren't both elims because of the tunnelling that has been happening on both sides. Assumption 3: Either Steel or DoS are elims. Proof: If assumptions 1 and 2 are true, then there's only 1 elim in 5 players. If Steel and Dos are villagers, the max number of living elims is 2, which is too low. If Steel and DoS are both elims, Steel wouldn't have been tunneling on DoS like he has been. Therefore, one but only one of Steel and DoS is an elim. Conclusion: Between Assumptions 1-3, we have accounted for 2 elims and only 2 elims in 7 living players. There is almost certainly a third elim on the field, and this logic leaves only Caesura to be it. BR just told me she has a lead, but I'm seriously contemplating going after Caesura and leaving BR/Monster alone for now. Caesura also claimed to me in PM to have missed an action one cycle, when she told me she was scanning somebody, so that's another piece of evidence against her in addition to the ones I've already shared.
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@Steeldancer Kynedath kept trying to deflect attention from the 6, and broke the C2 tie by voting on Alv, which helped both BR and Monster. The only time that Kynedath helped BR is that they launched an attack on me C3, the same cycle that I went for BR. In that same cycle, however, Monster voted on me along with Kynedath, while BR voted on Budgie. Had BR kept her vote on me I likely would have died that cycle, so I'm more suspicious of Monster's vote than her own. BR this entire game has been voting on Monster and before that Budgie, so that's consistent with her voiced suspicions.
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Bodyswapping game sounds exciting, but I think I'd prefer the shard game.
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C1 Brighness arrives and suggests a decent plan for determining who gets the gun. Minor village read from that. However, she also suggests that we all claim what items we're going to take, which would help the elims more than the village, so slight elim read from that. Monster's C2 defense for not taking an item was that he thought it was a day/night game. Later on Budgie used this same excuse, and they are village. I'm beginning to think Monster posting the list of 6 may be NAI. If you assume elim!Monster, they would have known there was only 1 elim in the 6, which is less odds than lynching randomly, so they would have had incentive to post, elim or not. One thing I don't like about Monster is that they only planned for 1 elim in the 6. Could they have known for sure there was only 1? Monster claims to have no PMs cycle 2, just in case that's useful for later analysis. Doing a bit of metagame reasoning here, I'm beginning to think that BR wouldn't have put in the kill C1, because elims usually have their kill in more than 10 minutes before turnover in my experience. C2 Monster says "If we get a lucky early elim kill it will put a lot of pressure on them as the rotation will be cut shorter for them." Whoever said the elims were on a kill rotation? It would make sense, giving the game rules, but I don't like how Monster seems to know how the elims are structuring their kills. C3 Monster says they consider themself to be right about Orlok being village because Orlok wasn't an elim. That doesn't sound like a village perspective to me. A villager would have predicted Orlok as sharing their alignment and so would have been wrong, but an elim would have been thinking of Orlok as not sharing their alignment and so would have seen Orlok being neutral as them being correct. (Not sure if this one makes sense). C3 Monster makes a post saying that if there was only one elim in the 6 then we shouldn't have started searching there because there's better luck lynching outside. Well, when Monster posted the list they only suspected one elim in the 6, so this analysis actually attacks their own original position. C3 Monster votes on me right before Kynedath does. Coordination perhaps? But then again, BR votes on me not long after. But later on, BR takes their vote off me, but Monster holds their vote with Kynedath on me. Neither Monster nor BR voted last cycle. I think we may have been had. BR Monster. I've had a blind spot on Monster ever since I read them as village D2, but the more I look at their posts the more they don't hold up to scrutiny. @Sart @Straw Is there a reason why this cycle is only 1 day instead of 2?
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Brightness does have a point, and I can see why Orlok wanted to trust her. Right now I'm flat on my back sick, so it's not like I'm doing much else, so I'm going to go back and collect evidence for a BR vs Monster analysis.
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"To arms! To arms!" As Mr. Klenien raced out of camp he attempted to grab supplies, but the chalklings were following him too quickly. His legs hurt from running and his heart was pounding like a jackhammer, but something about it felt good. He was mortal. He felt pain. He was alive. --- Ok, so now that I'm (hopefully) trusted for putting Kynedath up for lynch I'm going to explain some things, in case I die tonight. 1. Orlok voted for Kynedath yesterday because I promised him a Bribe if he did. I had a feeling that he might have had other Bribes, but I had to play Dr. Faustas a bit or else Kynedath would have gotten off and we might have lost then and there. 2. I have a heavy trust of Jon. He saved my bacon yesterday with that vote, which I can't see an elim doing at this stage in the game. Same with Eternum, but I already trusted them. 3. Voting habits also give me bad reads on Caesura, Devotary, and Steel, for voting and nearly saving Kynedath. 4. I was aware that Orlok had the map last cycle, but I asked him to kill BR instead. However, he used the map. Monster had said that he knew where the map was, so I'm thinking that that's why he gave his bribe to Orlok. 5. Steel didn't willingly give their bribe to Orlok. Orlok told me how he trolled Steel by getting Steel to scan Orlok stealing from him. 6. Caesura in particular deserves their own paragraph of analysis. They've been my PM contact since D1 and I was reading village on them in PM. However, at the end of last cycle they turned on me and nearly saved Kynedath. In addition, she had told me she was going to protect me with chalk, but instead it looks like she took a Bribe. Caesura is possibly my best lead at this point. 7. I'll get analysis up on Steel and Devotary at a different time. But for now, I think one but not both are evil. 8. I agree with Jon. Brightness needs to die today. BR, to address your points: A. You didn't put your vote where your mouth was. Many elims give lip suspicion of a teammate, but don't want to vote on them. I think that your suspicion may have been a distancing tactic. B. All it takes is one opportunity to put in a kill. C. The elim kill wouldn't have stopped Orlok from shooting you, due to OoA, so the elims didn't do it for that. I think it more likely that they realized he was collecting a lot of bribes. Heavy trust: Len, Jon, Eternum Sight trust: Monster Moderate distrust: Steel, Devotary, Caesura Distrust: BR I think we have 3 elims left alive, and they're in the bottom 4 of my suspicions. I'm thinking BR, Caesura, and one of Steel or Devotary.
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Then it appears it'll be up to the coin flip. If I die, I'll flip village, and in that case I ask all of you remaining villagers to take down Kynedath next cycle, assuming the game lasts that long.
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Thank you, I guess? I'll take a vote on Kynedath for no reasons over a vote not on Kynedath at this point.
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Of my six reasons why I suspect Kynedath, only one of those requires that you're an elim, and that's #6. Every other one of those points works regardless of whether the elim is you, Monster, or even Eternum. Even if you could prove to me that you're village right now, I'd still suspect Kynedath. So while I'm fairly sure you're the elim, if you do flip village it won't mess up my analysis on Kynedath.
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I only swapped the BR lynch out for a Budgie lynch that gave us info about BR. I didn't remove the heat, I just took a different approach to finding out BR's alignment, one that didn't require killing BR. Had Kynedath had their way, we wouldn't know anything about BR. What other motivation would a sneak have had than keeping the map from the village? I admit to having us focus on only the abstainers, because that's where I believed we had the best chance of finding an elim. I don't think I've been tunneling. I started with some general analysis, zoomed in on Kynedath because of their voting habits, and then I spotted the hole in their story. Also, if I was an elim, wouldn't I have wanted to vote on Budgie instead of BR? Budgie had attracted a lot more suspicion, particularly from Orlok, and voting on BR nearly got me lynched yesterday. It would have been a very unwise thing to do were I an elim. I'm not as concerned about the short post as I am about how you covered it up afterward. The post itself I had planned to mark as NAI, but your response struck me as very elim.
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It's just a ninjafest out here
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You just got ninja'd. The problem that I see with this is that if you didn't have that reasoning back when you made your post, that means you made up this reasoning after the fact. This fits with what an elim would do if they needed to justify a lie that they told, but doesn't really fit with a villager explaining what they were thinking at the time. So my evidence against you is: 1. When the initial voting came in on the abstainers, you didn't seem to want to take a side, which could have been to keep you unassociated with the elim in the abstainers 2. You break the one-vote tie in favor of lynching Alv. Doing so takes the heat off of BR (or Monster if BR is village) 3. In that same post, you rebut my suspicions of Orlok, which further serves to concentrate votes on Alv for the mislynch 4. You claimed that the village might have the map, which the elims would have had knowledge of because none of them had it --you've already responded to this one, and your explanation is plausible, but your original post still set off a bad gut feeling 5. In defending that post, you used C3 reasoning which you couldn't have had access to at the time. That tells me you made up this reasoning after the post, not before 6. In this post you start pushing heavily to divert the lynch away from the D1 abstainers and target me. This is notable because it's the same cycle that I begin going after BR, so this seems like an attempt to discredit me and take heat off of BR.
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The post itself makes sense, although I don't agree with it, but when I challenged Kynedath on it they responded: Kynedath explained their reasoning for the post, but they're lying because the post wasn't made during the third cycle. It was made during the second. And Kynedath based their reasoning supporting it on things they wouldn't have known second cycle, like stating Alv had already passed the map off. He couldn't have, because it was still cycle two. Therefore, Kynedath is lying now about a post they made (without a lie) back then, and that's elim behavior.
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Because Kynedath just revealed themselves to be lying in the thread. Monster has a chance of being an elim, but Kynedath is basically confirmed.
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He actually just told me the same thing, so that matches. OK, alibi confirmed, Eternum didn't do it. I'm getting a villager-y read from BR's posts at the moment, but the logic says what it says. But in case BR turns out village, that leaves only Monster as the elim.
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You don't have to do it in-thread, just over PM. That way only you two know.
