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DeTess

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Everything posted by DeTess

  1. DeTess
    @Matrim's Dice, really Matrim, 'empty votes'? Those votes were based on science, and the sight of your bloodstained hands!
  2. DeTess
    Right, sorry, forgot to take that into account when looking at who hadn't voted. I would still like to know who you'd vote if you could though. Same goes for @Alvron.
  3. DeTess
    @The Known Novel , @Illwei , @TheAlpha929, @Walin, @Steeldancer, @Alvron, @Devotary of Spontaneity None of you have put a vote down yet this cycle. I realize we're at an info drought until the mat/araris thing gets resolved, but if you don't at least put your vote down all we know for sure is that it's highly unlikely we're executing the right one this cycle.
  4. DeTess
    You're not outside the N3 mech pool(only reason you were excluded was trust based on D1 iirc) had an extra life so D1 could be a wgg (and archer did break the tie in your favor), and obviously e!mat would not submit the kill today, but let their team mate do it.
  5. DeTess
    Ah, that would make sense. Thanks for clearing that up. I'm pretty much out-analyzed at this point so let's try this again. mat Edit: out of analysis, not out-analyzed
  6. DeTess
    You don't have iron will, right? You're not listed as insane either, so how did losing the mask block your action?
  7. DeTess
    Okay, so I doubt I'll make it through the night (frankly, I'd expected to die last night), let me run through some mech for After Araris/Mat has been resolved. If Araris is evil and a shade expert: Either Walin is the last elim, or there are two elims left. If Walin is not evil, the two remaining elims are Illwei and one of <Alpha, steel, alvron>, otherwise Walin and one of <Alpha, steel, alvron>. Either way, I'd advice executing walin first in this scenario. One of Araris' team-mates has to be a writer. If Araris is evil and a writer Walin has to be the last elim remaining, and the shade expert (I really don't think there's a 5-person elim team with two sets of silver bones). If Araris is evil but neither writer nor Shade expert Welp, good luck? In that case there are two elims left, one writer, one Shade expert. Refer back to the first scenario, but keep in mind one of those in the PoE will need to be lynched twice. If mat is evil and the shade expert Both PoE's have been resolved as Mat was in both of them, so from a mech perspective it is open season on who mat's team-mate is. I'd say Araris, Walin and Alvron are less likely though, and dropping Devotary and TKN from the pool as well leaves a functional group of <alpha, illwei and steel>. In that group I'm gut-reading alpha as most likely to be mat's team-mate. If mat is evil but not the shade expert Has to be one elim left, same group of suspects, Alpha a bit less likely as I doubt the shade expert would also have a pallid mask. Also, I don't really get why there was a sudden switch onto Araris for their writer claim? In general, I don't like how both Araris and Mat tried to use 'I'm not a shade expert' as a reason for why they shouldn't be suspected at all though. Also, I mentioned this before without naming specific names, but Kas had gotten enough PM's after Sart's death that there should be two writers left, and Araris had made the writer claim in their PM together with info about previously made PM's, so as I pointed out earlier, if Araris is elim and not a writer, there has to be a writer on the elim team.
  8. DeTess
    Okay so if we assume araris is an elim then either walin is their team-mate, or it's a 3-person team, but in the latter case Araris has to be the e!se who was faking being a writer with the help of a writer team-mate. If there's still a crossbow out there, I'd prefer it if one of walin, araris or mat gets shot so we can go into the next day cycle with some info.
  9. DeTess
    So what is your argument exactly? Is it "I didn't claim SE D1 so I can't be the e!SE", or is it "I didn't claim SE D2 to protect Aman so I can't be the e!SE"? Because the second argument is countered by the fact that no one claimed SE to protect Aman that day. Anyway, just because you're not the e!SE doesn't mean you're not an elim (which goes for Araris as well). I actually think a four-man elim team with two sets of silver bones is more likely than a 5-man team with 1 set.
  10. DeTess
    Still tired an not feeling to well, so I'm not really up to do post analysis yet. There was some other mech stuff I wanted to run this cycle though. With the various claims we can actually account for the actions of quite a few players last night: TKN Mat Araris - got roleblocked Illwei - did nothing according to steeldancer glowpaste Alpha Detess JNV/Walin - got replaced, highly unlikely to have taken any action steeldancer - (I think glowpaste doesn't also take the night action, does it @Elandera?) Alvron devotary - roleblocked araris So that leaves a mech PoE for the TJ kill of: TKN Mat Alpha Detess Steel Alvron With TKN unlikely to have done so given how instrumental they were to bringing Archer down, and not including myself either. I initially thought steel could be cleared as well, but looking at the rules again glowpaste seems to take a day action, not a night one. So the two PoE's that each have to containt at least 1 elims are: N3: Illwei Mat JNV/Walin N5: Mat Alpha Steel Alvron Mat is the only common point to both of them. Therefore, if Mat is not evil, there are two elims in the group <Illwei, JNV/walin, Alpha, steel, alvron>, and still going with the 1 of mat and Araris must be evil, that also means that if Mat is village, there must be three elims. I am unsure if 5 elims makes sense. There have been a lot of protective items, but the elims also had a shade expert which gave them an extra life, so a 5 elim team would have 6 lives and required 6 lynches, while only allowing for 3 successful mislynches before Lilo. edit: why do you think there is one in alv/araris?
  11. DeTess
    JNV just got replaced for inactivity so it's highly unlikely they submitted an action this night, which means that, assuming 2 elims remaining, they can't be teamed with Araris (as Araris was roleblocked), and you going after them means I don't think they can be teamed with you either. And running wit the assumption that one of Mat or Araris is evil, JNV not being teamed up with either of you means they must be village. But I also just reread and apparently @Steeldancerused glowsap to track illwei and they didn't do anything this night. In that case illwei and araris can't be the last two elims either, which means one of the following must be true: There are three elims left (unlikely but not impossible imo) TJ was hit by a village crossbow (seriously, if this happened, please claim) Araris and Mat are both village (unlikely I think, as it means there is a lot of village protective power) Mat is an elim.
  12. DeTess
    Yeah, that is assuming you aren't both evil which is not impossible I suppose. And the elims having two pairs of silver bones is not impossible.
  13. DeTess
    Interesting. That would mean a JNV/walin + Araris team doesn't work unless there's another elim or TJ died to a crossbow or something. And with Mat going after JNV/walin, they probably aren't on the same team either. Add to that that with TJ flipping village Alvron can't be the one that attacked me. So let's see if my tired head can draw some conclusions here. knowns & reasonable assumptions: at least 1 of JNV/Wallin, Illwei or Mat is evil at least 1 of mat and Araris is evil at most 1 of JNV/Walin and Araris is evil at most 1 of JNV/walin and Mat is evil Therefore: If araris is evil, Illwei has to be evil. If Illwei is not evil, Mat has to be evil. JNV/wallin can't be evil. The above is assuming a 4-player elim team and that the kill on TJ was done by the elims. If it was a crossbow shot instead, claiming that would be pretty important to solve the game.
  14. DeTess
    Okay, surprised I'm still alive. I'm not opposed to a JNV/Walin execution, but I want to look at other options as well, those options being Araris, Mat and alpha. Unfortunately, I'm not doing super well today, so any analysis will likely have to wait until tomorrow. @Alvronwhy did you say that Araris was guaranteed to be evil last turn?
  15. DeTess
    In his PM with Kas.
  16. DeTess
    Okay, so I wan to quickly go over the protective items that have been claimed or revealed. Pallid Mask: DeTess, TJ, Alpha Silver bones: Araris, Mat, Kas (shade expert) Pendant: Ash That's a lot of protective power, and I highly doubt it was all in the hands of the village. In particular, I think it is likely that one of Araris and Mat is evil, as I don't see the village having three sets of silver bones.
  17. DeTess
    Yeah, so for the record, the group of suspects we established D4 was not a group that had to contain all elims, but rather just the group that had to contain the one that attacked me. The other elim(s) could be outside that group.
  18. DeTess
    It's fine to keep him in the PoE, just the only way he could be the one that attacked me is if you are his teammate and lied about the redirect.
  19. DeTess
    Just JNV and Illwei, but mat got cleared based on the D1 stuff rather than mech, and TJ and alvron cleared eachother, so if they're team mates they could also be options.
  20. DeTess
    @Alvronthat's your vote on Araris I assume?
  21. DeTess
    @Ashbringerinteresting guesses. The truth is, I'm not 100% certain what the emergency was. I think kas just wanted to get into contact with someone they trusted to share info in case they died that night. Or Kas had some suspicion of me and there was some kind of test in those PM's that I presumably passed as Kas never denounced me.
  22. DeTess
    I am curious about your guess here. Would you be willing to share that before I reveal the actual reason?
  23. DeTess
    Oops, my bad. I meant to put Kas there XD
  24. DeTess
    I don't know about every PM Mat had, but I think he had more than what could be accounted for with Sart and just 1 of the two that claimed writer, so there's probably at least two writers left. edit: I realize I'm being rather coy about the contents of my PM with Kas here. That's mostly because I'm not entirely certain about what bits of info are safe to share with regards to claims and the like. @writers, you contacting devotary this turn is probably for the best, but if for whatever reason you don't want to (or have a PM left over next cycle if I'm still around), I wouldn't mind one with Devotary myself so I can hash that stuff out with her.
  25. DeTess
    I did think it was off, and initially discussed it with Kas in our PM. I was actually going to give it to him, but got hit before the transfer happened (as that was last in the order of actions). Our conclusion at the time was that it was not impossible for all three to be village depending on the elim team composition. There is actually a bit more to it, but I'm not 100% certain I want to bring that up right now, as it concerns several other defensive item claims made in PM's (Kas was a bit of a PM hub, to put it mildly).
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