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DeTess

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Everything posted by DeTess

  1. DeTess
    Alignment indicative and Not alignment indicative.
  2. DeTess
    Hmm, that would definitely be worth looking at once we know how Kidpen flips.
  3. DeTess
    Mr Doctor He's certainly showing his work with insightful and interesting posts. He's also making me paranoid because he seems to really know his stuff, but I'm just going to assume he did a bunch of reading in advance. I found it odd how apologetic he seemed about the Araris lynch before Araris had even flipped, and how odd he found the kill on Kidpen. He wouldn't be the first new player to be put off by the general bloodthirstyness of this game though. I'd like to put him as village, but those two things I mentioned could possibly be an elim slip (or just general new-player ness. I remember Walin (I think) was pretty upset about the way the day 1 lynch target got taken down, and that got village!Walin lynched as the D1 lynch hit an elim). I'm keeping him as Neutral and on my watch-list. I kinda want to do some other things this evening as well, so I'm going to cut my analysis a bit short here. I haven't seen much AI from Rath, @Mark IV, @Coop772 and @Rebecca, with those I pinged having posted very little in general. Hey people, do any of you have any suspicions at this point? Same goes for Val, but he jsut claimed Dread Pirate, so unless someone counter-claims I suppose he's cleared. Likewise I have no reason to doubt Elbereth's Claim of being Max right now. Sart voted on roadwalker C1, and the attack on Roadwalker places that in the same convoluted WIFOM case as it does Walin. This cycle he voted on Straw for pretty much the same reasons as I'm currently suspecting him. Not much of note here ither. So, general conclusions: there's a lot of people posting very little right now. This is very annoying because any number of the elims could be hiding among them, but lynching among them is a crapshoot that won't get us much information. On the other hand, lynching among the actives could leave us with a very quiet game if those currently being quiet don't step up. My current elim reads are Devotary, Straw, Elenion and Eternum, more or less in that order form most to least suspicious, but I have no hard suspicions on any of them right now. In fact, I'm tempted of borrowing Alvrons trick from MR29 and rolling a 4-sided die. I won't do that though. I'm going to vote on Devotary, as his slight defense of Araris still feels off to me, and partly because process of elimination drops the other 3 for this cycle at least. I feel like I end up lynching straw just about every time I've got no better idea, I've got a PM with Eternum that's given me a not-horrible gut-read, and I feel like Elenions posts today have been better than what made me initially suspicious of him.
  4. DeTess
    So, where was I? Doc12 ...hasn't actually posted today yet. @Doc12? My position on him hasn't changed much. His tone is good, I haven't seen anything articulately suspicious yet, and I'm fairly certain I need to keep a close eye on him. Dalinar hasn't posted much yet.. @Dalinar Kholin, how is your catch up coming along? Are there any insights you'd be willing to share already? Bugsy My read on him is currently fairly neutral. I had some mild suspicions of him initially, but based on his defenses I concluded that what had made me suspicious was fairly NAI for him. However, I do note that Bugsy hasn't really posted much today apart from speculation about the dread pirates identity. @Bugsy, do you have any current suspicions that you are willing to share with us? A quick intermezzo , regarding something I only just noticed on a re-read. HH apparently knew that Roadwalker wasn't Max, which makes me elan a bit mroe village on him. I can't really figure out why the elims would have hit roadwalker unless they believed his Max claim and wanted him out of the picture quickly, so if HH had been an elim and knew that, then I can't figure out why they would have hit him anyway. @Hemalurgic Headshot, did Roadwalker say anything else in that PM that could explain why the elims would have hit him? Straw Given how many posts he's made there's surprisingly little content. @Straw, who are your current suspicions? Is there anyone you think is fairly likely to be village? I'd be inclined to put straw on neutral, but he's had enough posts that I don't actually like his silence on reads that much. very slight elim read for now (maybe this time, for once, I'll be right...)
  5. DeTess
    I don't have particularly strong opinions either way. On that topic though: I will be pretty much inactive from Friday to Sunday because of an event I'm attending over the weekend.
  6. DeTess
    Apparently the link to the elim doc is currently malfunctioning. This one should work though.
  7. DeTess
    from the secret rules
  8. DeTess
    I don't think I was disagreeing with you on this point?
  9. DeTess
    Alright, the final group I'll be able to get to today. I'll try to finish the rest tomorrow. Snipexe Well, there's nothing much here to analyze. If Sart's evil, Snipexe is probably good, but that's about it. @Snipexe, do you have any reads on people other than Sart? Neutral read. Fifth Scholar He posted a Defense of Bugsy during D1. If Bugsy's an elim, I'd be more suspicious of Fifth over that, and vice-versa. He then throws in that vote against Araris that has been discussed before. I disagree with the sentiment behind the vote (close votes can potentially get us some interesting info), but given that Araris flipped village, I can't see a reason for an elim to chip in a vote like that at the end of the day when no one else was really at risk of being lynched. One thing that stands out is a bit of a lack of direct reads this cycle. There's a bunch of responses to other people reads, but he hasn't really provided any of his own, apart from the fact that he thought Elenion was the most suspicious of Araris, Elenion and Bugsy yesterday. Neutral, or maybe very slightly village(mostly based on tone) read Jondesu Two posts, not much alignment indicative stuff. @Jondesu, you said that you think that arguments used during D1 are rarely alignment indicative. Can you elaborate a bit more on how D1 is different from D2 in this regard? Elenion I've already talked about Elenion's vote against Bugsy before. The point Eternum brought up about him seemingly reading Araris village for no reason is somewhat refuted (Elenion brought up that the comment from Araris that made Bugsy lean very slightly elim on Araris actually made him Lean more village on Araris), but I agree that that seems like a slim reason, and I haven't seen much else from Araris that would make me lean village on him back in D1. Not much else stands out to me. The fact that the elims seemed fine with the focus around Elenion, Araris and Bugsy last cycle still makes me a bit more hesitant to continue lynching in that group, but Len's seemingly strong village read on Araris looks pretty odd on review. Slight elim read.
  10. DeTess
    Anyway, on to the next group of people, starting with: Cadcom(who ninja'd me, and more than doubled his word-count doing so) I've talked about CadCom before when I voted on him. I can see his explanation for it being a bit of a D1 joke-vote, but an elim would probably say the same thing. His analysis of Fifth is interesting, but I have a bit of trouble seeing how he comes to his conclusion. Unless I'm mistaken, he puts a bunch of stuff down as NAI, as well as some stuff as village or elim that seems to balance out. @Cadmium Compounder, could you maybe make a short summary of your long analysis post in which you explain what made you decide Fifth was suspicious? Overall(apart form the conclusion), his analysis of Fifth seem fair, and I hope he keeps this up. Neutral-ish read. Devotary The one thing that stood out to me is that Devotary noted that he didn't believe Araris' actions where worth lynching over. He then proceeds to vote on Bort. though his reasoning for that isn't bad, i find it odd that he didn't make a vote better positioned to help Bort if he believed Bort was a mislynch. Elim!Devotary could have made that comment regarding Araris to look better when he got mislynched, without actually doing anything to fight that lynch. @Devotary of Spontaneity,c an youe xplain your position on Aaris from alst cycle again? Slight elim read for now. Eternum Heh, I missed his question about how slow this game is by championship standards. @Eternum, I'm pretty certain I alone outposted all of cycle 1 over the course of that game, and the person that had posted most had more posts than a lot of our smaller games have over their entire run (about 600 or so). I'll let you draw your own conclusions . For the rest, your comment about Elenion seemingly reading Araris village without reason is interesting, but I'll look more into that once I get to Elenion. The same goes for your catch of Doc stating that it was a self-claimed joke vote when you hadn't actually stated that (the opposite, in fact, you alter backed that vote up with some reasoning). I'll also be interested in seeing the conclusions you'll draw from yesterdays discussion. On the other hand, I still don't particularly like the quick vote you made against Araris, and the way you seem to try to portray it as a joke-vote now, while it was a vote he was backing up with some analysis before doesn't sit well with me Slight elim read. HH His reasons for voting Araris look reasonable, given that he'd decided to focus on that group because they where the loudest discussion. His response to suspicion from elenion seems very village on tone. I'd also expect an elim to be scrambling for ways to get the suspicion off hi, or finding ways to turn it against someone else, rather than acknowledging it as fair. I'm reading him neutral for now, and hope to see more content from him to be able to refine that read. More to come in an hour or so, if I'm still awake enough by then.
  11. DeTess
    The elims know who is good and bad, yes, but the village doesn't. Anyone attaining a status of 'confirmed villager' will become a major target for the elims as that person is highly unlikely to be lynched. If Wesley instead remains alive untill the late game, revealing his role could help narrow down the suspect list even more.
  12. DeTess
    An interesting thing I learned during the championships is that IKYK is known on some forums as WIFOM, or 'wine in front of me'. The Ethymology of that expression is becoming quite clear to me now . I'da lso like to say that I think it's a bad idea for Wesley to claim. Yes, he's currently without powers, but his role still makes him confirmed good. I'd rather have him reveal himself when it's actually going to do us some good to have a 100% cleared villager, then now, where revealing will just put a target on his back. Anyway, Let's go do a review of everyone. I'm sure that'll take no time at all... Walin Hasn't really spoken much since last I mentioned him, but I find it interesting that the person who claimed Max after Walin asked for a Max claim ended up dead. I don't want to speculate on this right now as that would be the epitome of WIFOM, but I'll be keeping an eye on him. Bort Bort has only a bit. His first post was a random vote on Walin, and posts after that where him explaining that vote, and asking some questions of participants in the Araris wagon. I don't have a proper read on him yet, but I do have a question. @Bort, in hindsight the Araris lynch is obviously a mislynch. If you where to look purely at C1 without that knowledge, do you think the Araris lynch had merit? Elephant Has said two sentences, neither of which are related to finding the elims. @ElephantEarwax, is there anyone in particular you suspect or think is likely village right now? Anyway, my trains is about to reach the station. I'll be back with moer thoughts (and hopefully more interesting thoughts than 'didn't post much. next!') in about an hour or so.
  13. DeTess
    I thought it was semi-serious, given that I can see why someone could see Araris statement when he voted for bugsy as something worth slapping a vote on if they where just catching up and had no other suspicions.
  14. DeTess
    First of all, Mr. doctor, have you played Maffia before elsewhere? This was a pretty insightful post, especially if you're new to this game. Regarding my own more Neutral stance, that's mostly the consequence of an initially fairly quiet, and then very narrowly-focussed D1. I should be stepping out of that this cycle now that there's a lot more to look at. I don't think early voting is in any way pre-mature, as votes are not 'locked' and can be changed. Getting an early vote out does promote discussion if reasoning is provided. My guess would be that Kidpen was Wesley's kill. I don't think it's that odd of a shot. I agree that Kidpen barely said anything, but she had a lot of posts in which very little was said. let's wait and see what her actual alignment is before we mourn her, shall we .
  15. DeTess
    It's too early in the day for me to be rhyming, This truly is terrible timing. Anyway, the discussion centered around Araris, Len and Bugsy for most of the day yesterday. I had my own part in that, of course, but one thing I did notice is that the elims (or anyone else for that matter) seemingly felt no need to move the discussion elsewhere. I made a vote against CadCom in the second half of the day, both because I thought the way he went after straw looked odd and suspicious, and because I wanted to see whether people would jump on a fourth option outside of the main discussion or not. That vote got pretty much ignored, but if the elims believed one of their own was getting an uncomfortable amount of attention, I would have expected them to try and move discussion away if given a decent excuse. I'm not ruling Bugsy or Len out as elims right now, but it makes me feel a bit better about both of them. More in depth analysis will follow in about 8 hours or so once I'm back from my internship.
  16. DeTess
    Why did you feel this was necessary? If I'm reading this correctly you where not really suspicious of Araris, so why did you want to lock the Araris vote in anyway?
  17. DeTess
    Actually catching an elim would be. As would hammering the vote against the village to ensure that the elims win . In all seriousness though, I know you're pretty good at this game, so I'll be looking a bit more at your results to get a read on your alignment.
  18. DeTess
    Araris got lynched, which is fair enough, given the discussion today. I'm a bit dissapointed that the discussion never got broader than that, but nothing much to eb done about that now (though I still want to hear more from @Cadmium Compounder about his straw vote, and from @Eternum about his Araris vote). If/once he flips we'll have a better idea of whether there was actually something fishy going on with the votes surrounding him and Bugsy. If he flips elim, I'd take another look at Elenion (as they could be team-mates) and fifth (as that last-minute vote could be someone getting a bus in place after a team-mate looked like they where about to be lynched). If he flips village then I'll take another look at today's votes to see if there was any particular vote that could be attributed to elims piling on.
  19. DeTess
    I've finished a review of Bugsy's posts and defenses, and at this point I don't think the move I highlighted would be an elim-tell for him. Maybe he's playing innocent very well, but it took too much explaining to get across why I thought his early shading of Araris was suspicious for him to have intentionally been doing so as an elim. I'm not saying that he's village, just that I now think that the catalyst of the votes on him is likely NAI. In my own reads, he's moving to Neutral for now, though I'd like to note that if he is lynched later and flips elim, we should take another close look at today;'s lynch candidates, as by his own admission he wouldn't be making a move like he did as an elim if the village was going to mislynch on its own. I'd say Devotary would need reviewing in that case. I'll be going to bed in a couple of minutes, and won't be around for turnover.
  20. DeTess
    I'm doing a quick pass of all the players. If your name isn't on there, it means I could 't find anything alignment indicative in your posts, and you should probably post more Walin (Bill Ted) His only game-related post was asking max to claim. I disagree with him saying that it would help to avoid mislynches, as a max claim when that's actually about to happen will work just as well as a claim now. His reasons for why no one would want Max dead sound reasonable, but he then spends a lot of time on the idea of the 'elimbassador' to max. My opinion on Walin can be summarized as *shrug*. The first half of the post feels genuine, and I don't see how the elims would benefit from an early Max claim unless they intend to try and remove him ASAP (which seems like a waste of a night-kill), but Walin then talks about the benefit to Max of being contacted by the elims, which is odd, to put it mildly. Araris Valerian (Araris) His vote without explanation on Bugsy was definitely odd, but the lack of explanation itself doesn't seem overly suspicious. I can't find out how that little detail would have been tot the benefit of elim!Araris, at least. Responding to a stated mild suspicion with a vote seems a bit over-defensive, but his explanation of wanting to get actual voting started is one I can respect. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya) The first time I saw his vote on Straw, I thought it looked pretty suspicious, given that he was voting after establishing that straw was either village or or elim. I thought nothing of it after he backed off after being called out on it, but in hindsight it still looks bad. Eternum (Rob Indie Banks) His quick vote on Araris seems serious, and I don't like it given that it was his only contribution. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) As I said, I don't like the way he jumped on the Bugsy lynch, but the way in which his post mirrored the suspicion I had laid out of Bugsy (which he referred to, and so must have read) is really throwing me off, as it seems too careless for an elim. "Hey this guy is suspicious because he did A. let me vote on him while also kinda doing A". Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Max, apparently. I have no reasons to disbelieve him right now. Doc12 (D. Senfalo) Nice analysis, most of which I agree with. That's also pretty NAI right now (for Doc, at least), but I wouldn't lynch him anytime soon. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund) I brought up my point against Bugsy way to soon. It provided some interesting discussion, but in this environment it would have been far more useful to wait and see if Bugsy would actually act on his stated mild suspicion or not. His response was quite defensive, but he voted on Elenion instead of Araris (Which would have put Araris in the lead), which suggests he's interested in solving the game, and not just in staying alive. But then he set things up to maybe make a switch towards voting on Araris. Is it too paranoid to suspect him and Mr. Doctor of setting up that post exchange to make Bugsy look more village? Anyway, during my trawl through the thread, I've established that @Snipexe, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Dalinar Kholin and @Sart haven't posted yet. Right now I want to hear some more from Cadcom. Their vote on Straw just made no sense at all from a village perspective, while I could see an elim doing what he did either as distancing, or to appear to be working on solving the game. Edit: I haven't made this quite clear yet, but I'm currently somewhat suspicious of Cadcom, Bugsy, Eternum, Araris and Elenion in roughly that order of more to less suspicious. None of them are particularly solid suspicions right now.
  21. DeTess
    Let's say that a villager got lynched, and you're suspicious of two people who voted on that villager. One of the two provided decent reasons for voting that person when he voted, but hadn't really mentioned the person at all before that. The other had been talking about his suspicions well in advance of that person even becoming a lynch target. Which one would you be more suspicious of?
  22. DeTess
    Fifth/Bugsy w/w confirmed! In all seriousness though, I'm starting to agree with you here. I think it's the lingering tournament mindset that makes me look at everything with a more suspicious eye and expecting a different kind of elim play.
  23. DeTess
    The advantage that it would convey is that it gives you a progression to your vote on Araris. Araris is taking a bit of heat because he suddenly voted you without explanation, while if he'd had a prior suspicion stated, he could easily point back to that when making the vote as an explanation. So it's definitely in the elims interest to seem to be working towards a vote, rather than just jump on the nearest available bandwagon.
  24. DeTess
    @Bugsy, you stated that you don't think elims will vote early to attract attention to themselves. Both Araris' and Elenion's votes attracted quite a bit of attention, especially at this stage. If one or both of them are elims, do you think there's a reason for them to be moving more agressively?
  25. DeTess
    Speaking of which...*runs of to his GM PM* Edit: There's some other things that stood out to me as well. @Kidpen(and there's some others for who this goes as well), you've made a number of posts, but unless I missed it its mostly RP. There's nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't make figuring out your alignment any easier. I think only about half or so of the players have posted game thoughts, which makes it harder to find the elims.
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