DeTess
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Everything posted by DeTess
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I've only ever been a New Elim once, so take this with a grain salt, but I think New player would, all other things being equal, be a bit more active as an elim than as a villager, because this game can be rather overwhelming, and having people around to help you out and to plan with can be a boost to activity.This is not really something I think we can base suspicions on though, as you need to know how active someone normally is to see the difference, and that's kinda a problem with new players . I'd say that's different, as I do that all the time myself, even when I'm dealing with someone that's so ridiculously hard-cleared that it would take like four or five secret rules for him to be an elim. That's however crazy theories showing a lack of knowledge, while the theory I called out showed too much of it, if you get my drift. Just for the record, you're not my number one suspicion right now, but it is something that stood out.
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I did have a slight suspicion of straw before, and I did explain why I was suspicious of him now as well. Anyway, I should have time tomorrow to review Fifth and several others to get a vote down that doesn't have a poking element to it.
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I don't actually. Not saying you're wrong here, but it's never stood out to me before. Do you have some quick examples for me to look back on?
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Woops, sorry. I hadn't mean that as a way to rub salt in old wounds, just in reference to Borts defense of me. As for why he'd do so when he could have also just let me be lynched, I can only guess. Maybe he expected the lynch on me to go through regardless of his defense, which he could then have swung in his favor. Or maybe I've been so off the mark with my analysis that he didn't consider me an important lynch target right now, but I would have been a useful ally if I trusted him.
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This is the second time an elim died with an incredibly small amount of votes on him and wit the second and third votes being very close, so the elim team is pretty inactive, isn't around during turnover and/or doesn't have any vote manipulation. Anyway, this pretty much clears Dalinar, Drake and Sart. I'm really not seeing much of an argument against Sart at this point (though if it comes to it, Sart and Fifth can't be evil together, as fifth's knife use would have given Sart a village target to lynch last cycle). I mentioned before that I didn't like the way Snipexe was jumping around yesterday. He first voted to solidify the Fifth lynch when that one looked like t was locked in, and then switched when the Bort wagon started gaining momentum. However, his switch actually moved Fifth from first place, so unless he, Fifth and Bort where all elims together, it's a move that I don't understand. In fact, even in that case it's an odd move as a three-way tie results in two people getting lynched. So despite me being puzzled by the way he moved his vote isn't necessarily indicative of him being an elim. I'm going to throw a vote on Straw ( @Straw) instead for now (I know, I know, but hear me out here). This is in part a poke-vote, as I'd really like Straw to become more active and start commenting on the game, and the last big game-related post of his was directly related to voting on him. On the other hand, his vote on Sart during the Elenion wagon is also at least slightly suspect, and he seems to fit the (suspected) profile of the remaining elims being rather low activity. Of the remaining players, @Walin, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Jondesu, and @Doc12 (kinda, but I expect more activity from him if he had the time if he was an elim) would fit the activity profile of low-activity elim (I'm ignoring newly subbed in people right now, though I don't think @manukos has even checked in yet). I've explained ebfore why I'm leaning village on HH, so that leaves Walin, Jondesu and Doc. I've got nothing on Walin, despite him posting quite a bit. it's noteworthy taht Bort voted on him D1, but that's an action that could go a lot of different ways: 1. Bort really just piked a random guy to vote on: NAI. 2. Bort picked an elim to vote on to do some distancing and had missed the existence of a pre-exisitng vote on Walin: Elim. 3. Bort picked a villager with a vote on them already that he could 'randomly vote on': Village. Trying to analyze that now just leads to WIFOM in my opinion. However, i really do hope to see some more content, or even just votes from Walin so we can see how he stands on things. Regarding Jondesu, the only thing I've got against him (apart from fitting the low posting category) is his quick conclusion that both me and Devotary where village, and implicating Doc with it. It seems like that jumped the gun a bit,a s that's the kind of conclusion I'd expect a villager to come up with only after both me and Devotary where dead, so I've got a slight elim read there. Regarding Doc, he did a lot of decent looking big analysis posts. And then he didn't. He didn't post anything that I really disagree with, and his comment yesterday about having trouble catching up sounded genuine to me, and more importantly, if he is an elim he'd have a team that would/should help him get caught up quickly and easily. It's not much, but I'm not really seeing an elim!doc right now. I do hope he gets caught up an starts posting more soon so that I can refine this read. On to other things. @Fifth Scholar, are you familiar with the technique of pocketing? Do you think it inconceivable that an elim would try to pocket a villager by stating a solid defense of them when they're at risk of being lynched?
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The most important reason for that is that lynching inactives does not give us a firmer hand-hold. Lynching actives at least generates direct interaction and discussion. If we where to all decide to lynch elephant earwax tomorrow, there'd be less of that. I doubt anyone currently active would just go and sit on their hands and do nothing if we decided to lynch someone that's less active, but the discussion around the lynch would generate less information. I understand the general sentiment very much, but it is a move we should be careful with as we risk losing discussion.
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I don't really agree on this part. Leaving votes tied would seem rather dangerous given the opportunity for vote manipulation it presents. Creating ties near EoD between two major suspects can be very interesting for the village as we could then observe how ties get broken, but I don't think consistently breaking ties is indicative of elim behaviour. Consistently breaking ties in favor of elims is something else entirely, but I don't think Sart can be accused of that yet. I also disagree with your calculation of the risk. On paper it seems correct, if you assume that one elim and one villager are up for the lynch. However, if I see a tie and believe that one person is far more likely to be an elim than the other, it would make sense for me to break the tie, as it would turn a 50% chance to lynch an elim into a 100% chance. It'd only really make sense to not interfere in a tie if you are equally suspicious of both victims and/or believe you can get information by observing how others treat the tie. @Dalinar Kholin, that's fair enough, I suppose, given that I would suspect you for similar reasons if Bort flips village. However, it should be fairly obvious that I did not forget to put myself on there anymore than anyone else forgets to do analysis on themselves. Edit: and now I actually read the entirety of Dalinar's post. Regarding the dagger, it could have been done to provide this very argument. I'd also like to point out that, since Elenion got lynched with only 3 votes, and Sart had two votes, poor coordination could very well be a thing for the elim team. The Bort lynch also took quite a while to take off, so Fifth might already have submitted his action by then when I still looked like a likely target. However, this is a discussion I think we'd best continue once we know how Bort flips. Anyway, regarding fifth and Len, I brought up the fact that Fifth mentioned he was quite suspicious of Len during D1 (but he settled for voting on Araris as Elenion didn't get any votes). However, during D2 he didn't appear to pursue this suspicion. He mentioned it several times when explaining his D1 vote or to remind other people the Elenion is aggressive both as a villager and as an elim, but he never re-analyzed Elenion or otherwise pushed for his lynch (or explained why he no longer was suspicious of him), which looks suspicious given Len's alignment and Fifth's earlier stated suspicion.
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...that was interesting. Apologies for not being around to provide my own opinion on the alternate lynch. I had a rather busy evening. Anyway, there's a couple of take-aways I've got from this. If Bort flips village, I'd think there are pretty good odds of Fifth and Dalinar (and maybe Rath) being elims together. If he flips elim, then I think that clears Dalinar, Drake and Sart (and makes Rath look a bit better). It also makes snipexe look more suspicious. @Rathmaskal, you backed off from Fifth after some argument Dalinar made. can you tell me what part of it made you rethink him? I personally didn't see Dalinar make any argument that I hadn't seen before, but I could be wrong. @Snipexe, can you explain w hat makes you so suspicious of Sart that it weighs against his position in the Elenion wagon? @Mr Doctor, you did explain your vote on Sart more, but didn't mention his Len-vote. How does it affect your read of him, if at all?
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@Rathmaskal, I don't remember stating a hard village read of you. Did I forget about something? As my last read on you was fairly neutral afaik, I might as well go and check how that changes though. *Elevator music plays* Well, that wasn't particularly enlightening. I'm getting the feeling that Rath ahs played this game before (he said as much), but that's about it. He said nothing that stood out in a negative way, and had little telling interactions with Elenion. That's a decent reason to read him as slightly village for now, but he's someone to keep an eye on. I've also done a reread of Jondesu, but apart from the thing I highlighted last cycle (he seemed to be jumping quite far to get to the doc=evil conclusion, and though it's not impossible for a villager to do that, it;'s easier for an elim to do because of their insider knowledge), I haven't spotted anything particularly informative on his alignment. It'll be interesting to see how he decides to vote in the coming days, and if he abstains entirely I'll be quite willing to lynch him.
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@Mr Doctor, I believe the argument against me from D3 was the same as the one just brought by fifth, namely that I seemed to be hedging Elenion's alignment too much. If there where any other arguments that day that I missed, please link them so I can take a look. Anyway, as I said when Fifth brought them up, i can see how people came to that conclusion. it assumes I made a pretty big mistake, as elim!me should (and I hope, would) have bussed or hard-defended Elenion, but not remained in the middle, as that would put me in this exact situation. However, as I said in response to fifth already, I was just generally unsure about him. As for me moving on, that stems from what I said before, I understand where the accusation si coming from, and the only way I see t prove my innocence is to move on and catch an elim. Worst case scenario, I get lynched, but at least in that case I've left analysis of other people that can be evaluated when people know I wasn't trying to manipulate things.
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Yes, they take over everything from that player. basically the only thing that changes is the name of the one posting. edit: oops, double post. I hadn't realized that as Doctor ninja'd me. Edit2: @Mr Doctor, I'd be careful with drawing too many conclusions from individual elim kills, as that's a big pit of IKYK. Overall trends (elims killing mostly loud or mostly quiet players, for example) are useful, but reasons for individual kills can go any which way.
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While it is true that you mentioned him, you only ever did so in relation to what someone else said. You never went through his posts again to establish what you where thinking about his newer posts and you definitely didn't establish a position of whether you where going to vote on him. You did bring up that you wanted to lynch him after that had already happened, which is a rather safe thing to say if you wehre team-mates with him. Regarding Devotary, he claimed with less than an hour to go, which is just enough time to get people to move votes, but still leaves a very small window for a counter-claim. Judging by previous cycles, the amount of people on around End of Day was rather low, and he only pinged those whose votes needed to move, so it would have been a safe move for elim!devotary. I keep bringing it up despite me being wrong and you being right precisely because you where right while, in my opinion, you didn't have anywhere near enough information to be so certain that you felt it safe to start accusing me, unless you where an elim and therefore knew Devotary's claim was likely true. As for why I voted so late? I literally got on 10 minutes before the cycle ended, and catching up and making my case against Jondesu cost me 9 minutes. By that time I either needed to switch to Devotary, or let myself be lynched when I wasn't certain about Devotary. If you want to accuse me of last-minute hammering, don't lynch me when I'm gone (and have announced that would be the case) for most of the cycle.
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@Fifth Scholar, you bring up some good points against me, and I can see why village!fifth would come to the conclusion that I must be an elim. I don't have much else to say apart from the fact that what I posted really did represent my feelings regarding Len's alignment, in that he looked a bit off, but I really wasn't sure. However, I did do a quick re-read of Fifth's posts in light of me looking at other people's interactions with Len, and something really odd stood out to me. He stated suspicion of Len during D1, but went with the Araris Lynch as he couldn't lynch Elenion by that time. But then During D2 he only ever brings Len up when explaining his vote on Araris or when correcting others misconception about Len's aggressiveness. He never seems to do anything to progress his read on Len or the way the D1 lynch turned out, and then parks his vote on Elephant Earwax because he was fairly inactive. I don't know about my own apaprent hedginess, but if a team-mate might get lynched, wouldn't it be better to cut ties, keep your head down and let the village decide whether to lynch him or not? I'm going to vote Fifth for now, based on the speed at which he was willing to accept Devotary's claim and turn it into a lynch elsewhere, and how his suspicion of Len seemed to go into hiding during D2 while it would have made a difference in the discussion around him. Edit: I've still got a few minutes, so I've looked over Straw's interactions with Elenion, as Straw is another suspicion of mine, and they're basically entirely non-existent. Straw hasn't had direct interactions with a lot of people, so that in itself isn't suspicious. His vote against Sart did create a tie between Len and Sart though, which is suspicious, though neither of them had a lot of votes at that point and Straw's vote wasn't accompanied by a push to actually get the lynch switched to Sart. Conclusion: Straw's interactions with Lena re fairly non-existent and because Len doesn't stand out in this regard, fairly NAI.
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Alright, I'm done looking over Len's posts. I'll use the rest of this day-cycle to also go over people's interactions with him, including the D2 lynch. I should probably be able top complete that if I've got Wi-fi during my commute. Otherwise I might not be able to get it done entirely. For starters there was the D1 vote on Bugsy. Judging by Bugsy's responses, I'd say this was a genuine lynch attempt, rather than an attempt at distancing. If I'm wrong, it was a pretty nice bit of acting, but I don't think I am. During D2 he goes over the Araris bandwagon. Of those people, he townread Doc and mr. Doctor, outright suspected HH, and hedged his opinion on Fifth and Eternum. The fact that he decided to draw a lot of attention to this lynch makes me suspect that it might have been pure, or almost pure, because if there had been a lot of elims on it attracting attention to it would have been quite dangerous. He then puts in quite a bit of work to try and get HH lynched, pinging me and Elbereth to convince us to lynch HH. What's also noteworthy is that he also defends Eternum doing so, by trying to draw the lynch on HH(and then sets himself up to move his vote to Fifth instead of eternum if he needs to move his vote). I feel fairly certain clearing HH based on this interaction, and will be taking another look at eternum. That's pretty much it from Elenion's posts. tl;dr Bugsy and HH are soft-cleared, Eternum looks more suspicious. As I've got the time, I might as well take a quick look at Eternum. He provided the first vote against Elenion, and was around long enough to see CadCom place a second. There was some stuff in his posts that looked contradictory, and if it had led to a villager being lynched it would have been downright suspicous (most notably him supsecting Elenion for his village read on Araris, while he himself said that his elim!read on Araris was weakened by the same thing that Len brought up as making him read Araris as village). However, I don't see why elim!eternum would do that to throw Elenion under the bus when that didn't look necessary yet. So, Eternum could have been doing some pretty hard bussing, but I'm not really seeing that right now.
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I've been casting a rather broad net in my analysis as I don't think we can afford to narrow things down yet. there's something like 18 people still alive (though looking at the thread today and yesterday, you'd be forgiven for thinking there are only 8 ), so I can't really narrow things down to a small group of suspicions yet, as I've got little basis to do that on. I also lack the time to take people posts apart bit-by-bit in the thread, as unlike during previous games, I'm currently on an internship that's eating up a lot of my time. I'll be going through Elenion this evening though to see what I can learn from his psots now that he ahs flipped elim.
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@Dalinar Kholin, you're right that false-claiming is suicide, but Devotary was already as good as lynched. If I had been an elim at that point, I'd have false-claimed to get an additional mislynch. Is it so inconceivable that an elim would lie to be able to take one more person down with them? You're right that the spaniard has a kill and could have used it to resolve the claim, but he also has a special win-con involving him killing one particular elim, so presumably that's what he'd use the kill for. Devotary made his claim so close to roll-over that reasonable doubt still existed in my opinion. If he'd claimed 8 hours earlier I would have let the lynch roll over me, but the time he gave it was just enough to swing the lynch, while still keeping the chance of a counter-claim low.
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Bort brings up a very interesting point regarding the speed at which people believe role-claims. Devotary's claim has proven to be true, but it was made at a point where it could just as easily have been false. there's no reason for an elim not to try a ploy .like that if their lynch looks locked in after all, as it might buy them an extra cycle, and will either reveal the real holder of thew role, or people they trust enough to claim to. I'd seen Devotary's claim, but at that point there was now any to be certain about that, while I am certain about my own alignment. I'm going to take another look at those that where quick to trust his claim, as it's not inconceivable for an elim to accidentally slip up and betray their privileged knowledge by immediately believing such a claim. An elim would be less likely to consider the possibility of an elim ploy, after all. Edit: Bringing this up makes me elan more village on bort, btw, as an elim could easily have just sat back while I got lynched over this. edit2: So, in immediate response to Devotary's claim, Rath and Sart backed off. Rath claimed that he hadn't intended to keep the vote there anyway, while Sart went with a innocent untill proven otherwise approach. Rath had shown some uncertainty about his vote on Devotary before, but the same can't really be said about Sart. The night after that, Fifth was the first to jump on this as well, though by that point enough time had passed without counterclaim that Devotary's claim looked less shaky. On the other hand, if Devotary's claim had been false, there would have been no reason for the real Spaniard to counter-claim at that point, as Devotary was done for anyway. The last one to bring this up is Dalinar, after the claim had been proven true. Of these four, I least like fifth. Rath's response was backed by his progression, Sart's stance of 'let's see if there's a counterclaim' is understandable(but I don't like that I can't see any progression from him on me, who he then swung the vote to), and Dalinar waited for proof of Devotary's alignment before making any any conclusions. Fifth on the other hand was quick to make claims regarding Devotary's flip after he'd already died but before his alignment was actually revealed. He'd also expressed suspicions of Devotary in that cycle, and had voted on him for a while, only moving off because he thought Straw more suspicious, so I'm having some trouble believing that he immediately took Devotary's claim at face value.
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And what information do you mean here? Wesley's identity is revealed on his death as well, and the shot at Kidpen looked somewhat understandable. It's a moot point, as Wesley claimed, but I still don't see how an early Wesley claim would help the village. Regarding my read on HH, I believe I put him initially at Neutral because he had very little content overall. What he had seemed good, but I preferred to be careful. I later adjusted that read once I realized he knew roadwalker faked being Max. Edit: The main thing that stood out to me with Devotary was his stated defense of Araris that wasn't backed up by actual actions. He stated that eh didn't think Araris actions where worth lynching over, but then didn't take action to prevent the lynch from happening, which made me think he might have been trying to get a bit of village cred from an upcoming mislynch. edit: Anyway, stuff's been really quiet right now, and that's bad. I could do more analysis, but that hasn't gotten people talking that much. I'll have some during the day cycle, but for now I've got questions for everyone. I'd also like to once again reiterate my request that everyone vote. It gives people things to look at, and it prevents stunts like the one I pulled at the end of last cycle (though, you know, maybe Devotary was lying about being the spaniard and is actually an elim?) @Walin, you asked Max to claim D1, and stated that you thought it unlikely that anyone would want Max dead. The elims ostensibly disagree, given their attacks on Roadwalker and Elbereth. Can you think of a reason they want Max dead, and do you think anyone here would be more likely to want to get rid of her? @Bort, You've talked about the Araris lynch before and suggested that an elim could have pushed that lynch in the hope of getting a lynch on a villager. Do you think an elimw as among those threatened by the lynch that day? If so, who would that be? @ElephantEarwax, let's present a hypothetical scenario: You have absolute poer to lynch one player, but if you don't use it, you'll get lynched instead. Who'd you pick, and why? @Cadmium Compounder, you voted on me to start a discussion as you thought me and fifth where an anti-aligned pair. Why did you pick me over fifth for this goal? Where you aware I'd indicate I would be away for this cycle? @Hemalurgic Headshot, you highlight Devotary's use of the word Massacre as making him more likely to be village. Do you think this is something the elims can't fake? If so, is there anyone thing else that has stood out about other people regarding word-choice? @Snipexe, You mention that Cadcom's theory working so well when it's apparently incorrect scares you. Can you explain this more? What consequences does this scary theory have for your reads on people? @Fifth Scholar, you say that it appears I am evil. Assuming you are right, what conclusions about other people could you draw? And If you've got time, what would your reads be if you prove to be wrong? (This is a question anyone voting for me tomorrow should try to answer if they've got the time, btw) @Jondesu, you brought up quite the complicated elim ploy yesterday. It's a bit hard to judge in hindsight, but how likely to be right did you think you where yesterday? @Doc12, How useful do you think it is to look at someone's past games to get a feel for their alignments? Are there any other people in this game you'd cosndier reading through their past games if you had the time? @Dalinar Kholin, you brought up the problem of people being quiet yesterday, and noted that hat is very convenient if you got suspicion on you. Has anyone else shown similar 'evasive' behaviour? @Bugsy...I've got nothing, but he's been putting in plenty of work now, so he's one of the people less in need of a question to get them more into the game. @Straw, Are there any other conclusions you can draw from yesterdays End of Day,a part form the fact that you would have retracted your vote on Devotary? @Mr Doctor, You complained about people voting based on very flimsy reasoning yesterday. Do you think its better to not vote at all fi you can't solidly back it up, or vote based on gut so that people can see how you voted to try and judge your alignment? As an extension fo this question, do you think elims are more likely to vote with poorly justified votes, or find reasons to not vote at all if they don't have to? (and yes, I realize this is a fairly leading question. Apologies for that, but I think this is something you should think more about). @Val, Can you explain more what part about Devotary getting lynched doesn't look good? Do you think there is anything to be learned from that day despite an, apparently, undesirable outcome? @Sart, Do you think it is possible for an elim to make a false claim at the end of the day if they're being lynched? Why, or why not? @Coop772, please answer the question I asked of ElephantEarwax. @Mark IV, Same question as Coop. @Rebecca, Same question as Mark. @Rathmaskal, you've made note of Eternum's position in the votes several times now. Does anyone else's votes stand out to you? Why?
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Add a day to both?
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I have not problems with an extension, if a lot of people need it.
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Hey, no take-backsies
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JK devotary. see you at Iocane.
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Okay, what's it with me and getting lynched when I don;t have time to respond? The last two games I got lynched, (three if I get lynched this game) I got lynched while not being around to respond to the votes at all. I've barely read through the thread to properly understand the case against me, but one thing did stand out during my short skim, being Jondesu's argument for Village!me and village!Devotary. That (assuming devotary's claim is true) shows just a bit too much pre-info.
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This is going to sound a bit hypocritical, given that I won't be around fort he next cycle, but could everyone that does gt the chance to read through the serious vote down? Low voter turnout is to blame for a lot of the vils in the world, including elim victories. Less than half of the living players voted this cycle, and the leading wagons only had three votes each. Under those circumstances it'll be very difficult to lynch an elim unless the elim team is pretty much entirely inactive. Anyway, Len's death should help resolve the D1 discussion more at least. I'll need to go over the Sart wagon again as well. When I quickly read over the end of the day I felt like something was off (in addition to two of my suspects being on it), but I'll need to take another look at it to make further conclusions, and I might not actually have time to do that.
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Yeah, this is a pretty fair appraisal. You'll see me start to vote earlier in the later cycles as numbers drop and people get cleared but right now I try to keep as wide a focus as possible and evaluate everyone before making a decision.
