DeTess
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Everything posted by DeTess
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Welp, I'm just left with leaves Phattemer, Ark and Sart. I've already mentioned that based purely on interactions with Araris, phattemer looks the most suspicious. I'd also like to note that he's become way more active since those accusations arrived. of 14 posts, 9 have been made this cycle. However, outside of the interactions with Araris, his posts suggest more of a village mindset. He's been doing a decent chunk of analysis, and has been showing his results. Weighed against the interactions with Araris, I'd say that puts him at Neutral or slight village, for now. Ark/I'm pretty has also made it more difficult to find his posts by posting a lot elsewhere. ('An ISO button, an ISO button, my kingdom for an ISO button!') I have very little on him so far, as he's had a rather one-track suspicion of WfY. @I'm pretty, could you elaborate on that suspicion? Sart's also flown pretty much under my radar. He was pretty visible during the first cycle, given the way he pushed for the kill on ITIAH, but apart from that he's been jumping around with little reason given for his votes, which I don't like. @Sart, if you had to name one person to be most likely village, and one person to be most likely an elim, who would they be? Neutral/slight elim read, mostly based on him slipping under the radar after what happened to ITIAH.
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I don't consider them 100% cleared, but something Araris said seemed to sugest that there was only 1 (because he tried to create the impression there might be more than one). For now, I'll consider them less likely to be elims than everyone else.
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Vote tally Phattemer(1): Sart, steeldancer, WfY Randuir(1): Cadcom Kidpen(1): Phattemer, Rath Cadcom(1): Jondesu Steel(1): Phattemer WfY(1): Ark/pretty Stick(1): Sart I'm not sure If I'll be able to finish going over everyone in depth this weekend, but I'll try to. For now, I'll be going over _stick_, Jondesu, Kidpen and WfY. Regarding Stick, I'm somewhat unsure. There's the throw away comment that they'd considered voting on Araris D1, which is very slightly suspect. For the rest there is very little that stood out to me in one way or another. Stick is doing some analysis, isn't staying in the shadows too much, but she also isn't one of the driving forces behind the village. Neutral read. Jondesu hasn't posted all that much yet, but that's not unusual for him. One thing I've noted is that he's made a lot of statements, but didn't really back them up. He mentioned that he thought that everyone with votes on them last cycle where village, but he didn't really quantify that in any way. He then came up with a list of 5 people he suspected,a gain without explaining why. When one of them proved to be an elim, he mentioned that he felt this vindicated the list, and then went on to pick another person from the list as his vote. This is worrying me, as on a quick glance, his posts create the impression that he's doing things and analyzing, but on a deeper read, there's not actually any analysis or reasoning there. Elim read. Kidpen should post less in other threads while playing. It makes finding his posts a lot more difficult . Anyway, I don't think anyone answered his question about what 'hedging your votes' means. If you're hedging your votes, you're making a vote in a way that distances yourself from the lynch outcome. For example: "Its late in the cycle, so I really should put my vote down, but its still early in the game, and I'm really not seeing very solid arguments against anyone. I think I'm going to vote on Kidpen, but I could also totally see him doing what he did if he was village, so apologies if I'm wrong." (kidpen) Anyway, there's very little new I've got to add about Kidpen since my last post about him, which is notable in and of itself. @Kidpen, yous aid you had some analysis last niht cycle, but haven't gotten around to sharing it yet. Could you do so? Anyway, I'm still suspicious of Kidpen for the reasons I'd stated earlier. I don't have a solid read on WfY, mostly because they've been following the lead of other people rather than thinking for themselves. However, some of the things she's done (such as stating that she believed there only was one spiked in the synod, but missing that Phattemer had claimed synod, and araris was a ember of the synod) would be atypical for an elim, as thanks to the elim doc even newer elims would have pretty good awareness of what's what in the game. Part of me still wants to lynch her because if she is evil, seeing whose votes she's followed would be very interesting, but I'm not really seeing it right now. @Worldhopper From Yolen, if you've got the time, could you write down your reads on a couple of people. It doesn't have to be anywhere near as much text as I put down, but just a quick 'X looks suspicious because of this and this reason, and Y looks village because of this and that' would help us get a better read on you and would help you get a better grasp on the game. Right now, I'm a bit torn between Kidpen and Jondesu, but I'm settling on Jondesu for now, mostly because he seems to have passed under everyone's radar for now.
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@phattemer, did Alvron say anything in the Synod doc that'd reveal his identity and/or role? I'm wondering if the elims just got lucky hitting a full feruchemist, whether they got that info from the synod or whether they have someone capable of using tin.
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The Valerian files Incoming itneractions C1 Araris had some interactions with Elandera D1, but I'm not going to go into those, because we already know how Elandera flipped. The first thing of note was Phattemers vote on Araris. It happened towards the end of the day, but before the main wagons got started. In content, it could ahve been a D1 distancing vote, given that it wasn't accompanied by a case against Araris, but its timing is a bit off for that. I'd have expected a distancing vote to either hap[pen reallly early, or after another bandwagon had properly started. C2 During C2, steel flipped his vote to Araris after he'd hopped onto the bandwagon on me. Based on this vote, and him alter switching to Phattemer, I'd say steel and phattemer are unlikely to both be team-mates of Araris. next is my own analysis of Araris. I won't discuss that here, as it's not particularly useful, but I'll get back to it later in this post as a rebutal of what Cadcom said. Next is Rath. Rath mentions Araris' erratic votes, but also that Araris tends to get killed early as a villager. This could be a soft defense, but its also true. I'm not sure how much that particular observation contributed to the conversation at the time, as suspicion for araris wasn't exactly at an all-time high at that time. Phattemer mentions that his vote on Araris during C1 was meant as a joke. However, he started the post in which he voted for Araris with an explanation of why it is important to have a serious lynch discussion with the intention to kill. Throwing a complete joke-vote after that seems odd. Stick mentions that she'd considered voting for Araris D1, but didn't. She also mentions she had no particular reason for wanting to do that (rather than 'a gut feeling' or something similarly nebulous). If this info had been volunteered with no prompting it'd have been somewhat suspicious, but I did ask stick who else she'd considered voting for D1. Rath and WfY both vote on snipexe based on Araris reasoning. This could be an elim team wagoning together, but Araris argument wasn't bad, so this doesn't make me particularly suspicious of them. And that's pretty much it. based on incoming interactions I'm somewhat suspicious of Phattemer, as well as slightly suspicious of Rath. Now regarding my own analysis of Araris back during C2. On rereading it, I can see how Cadcom would come to his conclusion (especially given that last time I was an elim I got caught because I slipped up in a manner he's accusing me of doing again), but I think he's missing that I actually brought in new info. When I was mulling over elim!Elenion last time I was an elim I was mostly just rehashing the existing accusation and finding ways to spin it to not quite an elim read. When I was dealing with Araris I was actively bringing in new arguments against him, which elim!rand would have no reason to do (and a number of reasons not to do).
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Alright, let's take a look at Araris (I know cadcom just did this as well, but I'd prefer to do do my own analysis before going into those by others). First, outgoing interactions (IE: araris doing stuff to other people): D1 His first thing of note is a quick on/off vote ons teel during D1. It's potentially a pretty safe moment to do some distancing. Certainly he wouldn't be expecting Steel to be inactive during C1, so it doesn't make much sense as a poke vote. He also mentions that he reckons there's 1-2 elims in the synod doc. We now know he was one of those elims. I reckon he's probably the only one, as it'd be in his interest to guess high if there was only one, and emphasis there likely only being one if there where two. That way, if he died, the synod would be suspicious if they didn't have to be, or become complacent when they should still be suspicious. He votes on ITIAH citing his comment about the Synod, and we know how that ended. D2 He starts with a seemingly random vote on me, and I find myself somewhat in agreement with cadcom on that front. He certainly couldn't have expected to lynch me with that, and it only served to underscore the lack of logical base for that vote-train. I don't know what Araris hoped to achieve here (maybe Cadcoms reaction is the one he was hoping to cause in case he died, though the moves seems just a bit too sneaky for that), and I'll leave it up to others that don't have my personal bias to decide what they think of this move. Later in the day he does some Analysis. I think he ends up with me as Neutral, but I'm not quite sure. He mentions WfY in passing, but immediately starts discussing snipexe, leaving WfY as nothing more than a name-drop for completeness sake (though he manages to still write a paragraph in which he says basically nthoign about WfY). Lastly he village-reads Sart, mostly based on Sart's work to get ITIAH killed. I think this is a bit odd, given that ITIAH ended up village. Sart's role in that in and off itself is fairly NAI in my opinion, so I wonder if there's more to it. Lastly, he called out to those voting on Phattemer, asking them why they where voting on him while seemingly acting like he was interested in a Phattemer lynch. Asking people to better explain their vote is definitely one way to soft-defend someone, as it forces people to re-evaluate their vote, and gives those with an interest in keeping their target alive something they can refute. In conclusion, I can see reasons to be suspicious of Sart, Phattemer and WfY based on Araris' interactions with them. I'll have the incoming interactions up in a bit.
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I'll do a full analysis of Araris' interactions later today. Is there any reason why Araris' killer shouldn't claim the deed? That person would become hard-cleared, which might make them a bit more of a target for the elims, but would also help with analysis.
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Okay, I'm going to start working down the list. I should get Rath, Xino, Bort and cadcom done today*, with the rest done next cycle if I don't die. I'd been leaning village on Rath, but I'm starting to feel worse about him. There are two things about him that stand out to me in a negative way. First, he'd doinga lot of condensing of information, but very little of actual analysis on this info. At first glance this makes it appear like he's being very involved, but on clsoer inspection he's not really providing any insights in the game. The second thing is his frequent lampshading of things he's done or doing making him look suspicious. This post is a good example of what I mean: I think most villagers wouldn't really have their own appearance as a major worry, while its something elims would be constantly aware of. However, this post seems rather pure and villagery to me: Wanting to avoid starting an early bandwagon certainly isn't an elim concern, and the thoughts he shared pointed to him paying attention and actually looking into people, rather than just looking for a 'victim-of-the-cycle'. I'm keeping Rath at Neutral for now, but I really want to see more thoughts and fewer un-annotated vote summaries from him. Xinoeph, has only posted three times so far. Something interesting caught my eye in his last post though. @xinoehp512, am I to understand that you base your decisions for voting on people on the amount of votes they have, rather than the arguments people have brought with their votes? Another thing he brought up in that post was that he was first considering WfY, but then changed his mind. What I'd really have liked to see is the process behind this decision. he states he agrees with people's arguments against Snipexe without actually calling out with arguments he thought where most reasonable himself. In short, what's making me suspicious of Xinoeph so far is that I'm seeing no sign of him actually thinking for himself, but rather that he's riding on the coat-tails fow hatever is popular at the moment. This is something elims could get away with more easily, but villagers really need to be doing their own work rather than hope that everyone else figures it out. The one issue I've got with lynching Xinoeph in the next cycle is that the amount of info it'd get us would be very low because he has only posted a bit, but the low amount of game-solving I'm seeing in his posts is making me suspicious of him. Bort's only posted twice, both times to apologize for not doing much. I can understand that he's been rather busy, but I really do hope to see more from him sometime soon. I mostly like Cadcom's posts. He's inquisitive, he's asking questions and generally seems to be working to solve the game. I hope he'll start putting money where his mouth is and actually start voting sometimes soon. Apart from that, there isn't anything in particular that stood out about cadcom's posts. Tl;dr: I've got a slight village lean on Cadcom, don't have any info on Bort, lean neutral on Rath (but expect that to consolidate one way or another next cycle), and am leaning elim on XInoeph. *I'm working down the player list, and skipping over steel for now as he's the one player I've talked a lot about, and right now I want to get an idea of what everyone else is doing.
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Yeah, I just caught up and saw someone mention it. Should give you an idea if how out of it I was yesterday. Actual thoughts coming in a bit.
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We aren'tdoing any worse than usual, wfy. Also someone remind me which cycle was going to be 72 hours? I thought that was going to be last cycle, so I had time to rest up and cast a vote, but apparently I was wrong.
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Rath, the downside of that distribution being that it'll also mark everyone filling alignment detection metalminds and distribution detecting metal-minds... I'd been planning on doing another big analysis post today, but I'm pretty tired, so you guys'll have to do with some incoherent rambling instead. WfY is in the lead again. If she wasn't a new player, I could see the case against her. Her first post this cycle in particular seems like an elim overcompensating with empathy towards the village plight. If this had been her 3rd or 4th game, I'd definitely be up for lynching her on that, but its fairly NAI (non Alignment indicative) on someone's first game. @Worldhopper From Yolen, could you maybe share your thoughts on a couple of players. Seeing a bit more of your thought process and opinions will make it easier for everyone to read you. @xinoehp512 has yet to post today (as have some others, but I've got questions for him in particular). I'll speak more on him once I've seen his response to my question. Araris...just ninja'd me. I might as well wait till I see his analysis before I say more on him. Steel and Kidpen probably qualify as my two main suspects right now, for pretty much identical reasons (extreme hedging of votes during D1). One thing I note is that steeldancers last post of N1 looked really uncharacteristic for him. IIRC he's managed to win as a serial killer at least once, and has been an elim a number of times so I doubt its a sign of him cracking under pressure or something telling like that, but it still stood out to me. Rath had been staying to the sidelines for the first cycle, he had a couple of largish posts, but those mostly consisted of compilations of infromation without much real analysis attached to it. That having said, his post about the vote order was useful and easy to read. He's also been sahring some more actual reads during this cycle and has provided some interesting insights (his suspicion about me chilling on the lynch D1 points to him paying close attention, even if there was a different reason for my silence during the end of D1). ...Okay, I'm really not in the mindset for coherent analysis. In conclusion: Rathmaskal seems to be paying close attention to stuff, so he's maybe village. WfY is neutral, steel and kidpen look suspicious, and I need a larger sample size of posts from Xinoeph to get a read on him.
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Well, as I said, hindsight is 20/20. It still seems rather obvious why he'd make that link, given that he'd only played a couple of games (right? or is this once again a case of someone that I think is new has actually been around for 6+games)?
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Actually, if your fill condition does something with your vote (negates it, redirects it), you have to vote to fill your metalmind. Edit: that's one of the reasons I urged people to seriously consider voting last cycle, because if they don't, things like copper, zinc and tine will be very obvious.
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Right, sorry. I was referring to the post with the vote count and me confirming I was still suspicious of Coop, not the one in which the actual vote was made (those got blurred in my memory).
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@Rathmaskal, I didn't 'chill' on my vote on coop. I went to bed about 40 minutes after making that vote. If I hadn't, I probably would have retracted after he claimed, but hindsight is 20/20.
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So, the votes on ITIAH. Actually, before we get there, @phattemer, why exactly did you vote on Araris? You stated that he was one of the few people you could read, but that's not a reaons in and of itself. If anything, it'd be more logical to start out trying to get rid of people you can't read so you have a better chance at properly judging those remaining. Now, on to the votes on ITIAH. Sart made the first vote, and provided some reasoning. To summarize, I believe Sart was suspicious because ITIAH discouraged being suspicious of people talking in docs (because of the synod), cautioned against villagers putting in the generic kill, suggested lynches should be big wagons and because ITIAH hadn't actually voted yet. (that about right, @Sart?) I don't agree the all of those reasons, but they're better than just bandwagoning*. Speaking of which... Araris...wasn't actually wagoning. He provided a single reason for his vote, which was one of the reasons Sart brought up as well. What's odd is that Araris actually played in MR30 and was part of the village doc there, so it should have been fairly obvious where ITIAH was coming from with that comment, since he even referred to that game. Hindsight might be 20/20 though. @Araris Valerian, what made you dismiss ITIAH's referral to MR30 when he made that comment about the synod you found suspicious? Now we do get to the wagon though. First on was Elandera, but we already know what her alignment is. (but if I hadn't known, I'd have found the way she jumped on it slightly suspicious. That should tell you all you need to know about the accuracy of my elim-radar in the early game.) Next was stick. She expresses some worry about the wagon, but also states that she was going to vote even if the wagon hadn't been in place. She makes no real attempt to unload the 'blame' on others, but I am curious to know if she had anyone else in mind as a suspect at the time ( @_Stick_)? Xinoeph on the other hand is wholly committed to the bandwagon, citing a lack of other ideas. I'd already brought coop up as a serious lynch at the time, though it hadn't gained any momentum yet. Based on this post it seems like Xinoeph just jumped on the established wagon without looking if anyone was bringing any other options up, which makes me a bit suspicious. A villager, even one without ideas, would take the time to read the ideas of other people first, I'd imagine. Alvron decided to tie the vote. It's Alvron, so that's NIA. Phattemer then broke the tie, but didn't explain why he favored the ITIAH lynch over the coop lynch. He didn't have much time to provide those reasons, so I'd like to hear them now ( @phattemer), before I decide what I think about his vote. Of those voting for ITIAH, I like Xinoeph's vote the least right now. Araris vote also looks off to me given the reasoning he provided. *I agree that him opening up the generic kill IKYK rabbit-hole wasn't helpful and slightly suspicious, but the other read as fairly NAI to me, in part because I was part of the Scadrial game in which the doc-users where a village faction that ITIAH referred to.
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There was a game a while back in which one elim had a sevonday wincon in which he had to lynch a single elim teammate. @Drake Marshall can tell you more about that one.
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Thanks for that explanation @Cadmium Compounder. I'd like to ask the Synod to consider the possibility that coop had been identified in the Synod doc, and could have been a prime target for elims to lynch because of that. If you find that is the case, and you can figure out some way to let the thread know without risking revealing yourselves, I'd appreciate it. @Rathmaskal, of those abstentions, only Jondesu had actually posted in the thread during D1. They're definitely worth keeping an eye on, but of the 5, I only consider Jondesu's abstention to be premeditated (which does not mean its suspicious in and of itself).
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WfY, if you're voting with someone, its generally better to vote with someone that's voting with arguments, rather than their gut. (Araris, I figuratively don't even...) @Steeldancer, If possible I'd like to hear you expand a bit on your gut-read. its obviously something from D1, as you mention that you hadn't seen my accusation of you yet when this gut read came up. @_Stick_, why did you mention Coop being part of the Synod? That's a role, right, and nothing of the sort has been revealed about him. Anwyay, ITIAH ended up being village, which expands the group of potential elims significantly (namely, everyone who isn't dead yet), and weakens the case against Steel, Kidpen and Snipexe somewhat, though I still remain suspicious of the first two. It also means that the elims had no particular reason to be voting one way or another last cycle. I'll start by taking a look at those late on the ITIAH bandwagon in a bit (probably this evening, about 10 hours from now). One thing of note is the suspicions based on last-minute claims. I've been thinking back to the last bunch of games, and I can't remember a single instance of an elim trying to survive by false-claiming something (while I can remember several instances of a villager claiming to try and survive). I'm sure it happened in the past, but it seems to be a bit of a dead horse trope these days. Am I wrong?
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Okay, calling it now. If ITIAH is evil, the elim team is ITIAH, steel, kidpen and snipexe (+1 maybe one more if the villages has been stacked with full feruchemists). In all seriousness though, Snipexe stating his agreement with that bandwagon but then jumping the other way without going in depth on why he thinks the ITIAH wagon is good looks off.
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I wouldn't know what caused the quick response involving ITAH in particular, as I'd voted on Coop well before the ITIAH bandwagon had gotten started. If I had to guess, it was a combination of people liking the coop wagon more (though ITIAH ended up with more votes at the end of D1), and my recommendation that votes are consolidated, rather than spread out, to make it more difficult for the elims to identify roles. Edit: Assuming 4 elims (about 20% of 19), its indeed not unreasonable to assume there's 2 in each wagon, assuming there are no elims among the 6 that didn't vote. Statistically speaking, its more likely there's 2 in 1 group, 1 in another and a fourth among the non-voters, unless ITIAH is evil, in which case I expect there to have been as many elims in one group as necessary to help him survive, with any elims capable of self-nullifying their vote voting for ITIAH. Anyway, I've started looking into the votes from yesterday more. ITIAH, kidpen and steel voted on Coop after he'd claimed to be a copper ferring. ITIAH notes that coop is soft-claiming copper, but votes on him anyway because he thinks its a last minute claim to save his life. What's interesting to note is that he dismisses it as claim that can't be verified (while it could be quite easily verified given that coppers filling mechanic is quite unique and easy to verify), and also raises his vote on WfY as still ebing very odd, while knowing that he was filling copper, it was actually the safest place for WfY for coops vote to be. As it stands, ITIAH was the other main lynch candidate, so I can understand that he'd vote on coop in self preservation (which is a mostly NAI act if you don't have any reason to trust the other guy), but that's not part of his reasoning for voting on coop. I don't agree with Kidpen's reasoning that coop was being too vague about his role. The only way he could have been less vague is if he'd claimed outright, and that would have been (even) worse for his long-term survival. She(?)'s also hedging a lot on the vote, immediately bringing up D1 uncertainty. Lastly, she doesn't really mention ITIAH at all apart from noting that he's the other main candidate. If ITIAH is evil, I can definitely see Kidpen being a team-mate. Steel states that he doesn't like Coops evasiveness, which I can understand, but by the time he made his vote coop had pretty much explained why he made the vote. Like kidpen he tries to distance himself from the lynch by stating he liked neither option. Also like Kidpen he only discusses why he thinks coop is suspicious, not what he thinks makes ITIAH worth considering. Adding to that is his apologetic comment during the night cycle in which he also highlights that we learned nothing ('Really you guys, there's nothing to find there. Move along, nothing to see here'). If ITIAH is evil, I would be highly surprised if not at least 1 of kidpen or steel is evil, but even if ITIAH ends up good I don't really like how either of them went about placing their vote.
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I'd say we got plenty to look at at least. This comment being among the more interesting samples. Edit: in all seriousness, a heavily contested lynch like this one is always going to give us something to look at. No reason for defeatism (unless ITIAH is an elim, and the elims made an incredibly obvious effort to save him...)
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The worst thing is, in hindsight I can totally see why coop did what he did if he was a copper ferring, and I'd probably have retracted my vote if I had been around when he made the claim. With the information I had at the time, I couldn't help but see it as highly suspicious though. I'll be taking a look at those who voted on him after the claim, because copper ferrings would be a major target for the elims, and his claim was quite easily verifiable. I'm also fairly certain that @Cadmium Compounder(who announced this in advance), @Bort, @Rathmaskal and @Ark1002 haven't posted yet. Hey guys, the game's begun
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Day 1 Vote tally Steeldancer(0): Araris WfY(1): Sart, Coop Kidpen(1): Alvron Rath(0): Coop Stick(1): WfY Xinoeph(0): Elandera Coop(1): Rand araris(1): phattemer ITIAH(1): Sart We've currently got a new player in the lead. On is because he hand't posted yet ( @Sart), but now he has. And the other is because of reasons that have apparently nothing to do with his alignment. I see no reason to retract my vote from Coop right now, nor do I see any reason for not voting on him again tomorrow if he survives this lynch. Furthermore, I'd like to call on everyone to get a vote in. Even if you aren't particularly convinced of anyone's guilt, voting will do two things: It will give the village something to analyze about you. Even if you just follow the main wagon, it'll say something about the way you're approaching this game. It will allow those with important roles that require storing to not immediately stand out. Right now, people storing tin or copper or something else that requires a vote will stand out like a sore thumb if they're the only ones voting. I realize there is a similar issue with those storing pewter if everyone tries to vote, but at this time less than half of the people have voted, which is far too little. edit: ninja'd by Sart, vote tally edited to reflict this. Also, this'll probably be my last post today, unless something happens within the enxt 30 minutes or so.
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Coop ( @Coop772), you jumped on a 'slip' that could have meant any number of non-elim things rather quickly and put WfY in the lead doing so. Can you explain to me why you thought her comment was suspicious? Its odd, and really quite telling, but I really don't see how it would be indicative of her being an elim.
