Kasimir

Edited to add: Raven is obvious, could I ask you to spell out why me a little? @Aeternum Wrt the Bee-Raven exchange, AFAICT: About 4.5 hours to EoD C2, Raven mentions getting a PM from Bee. Raven comments about insinuating he had a message from the HP and being suspicious because the last time Bee PMed him, Bee was Evil (note that it was just kind of impossible for V!Bee to PM Raven in QF70.) Raven later notes he is confused about Bee saying pretty much everyone else wants to PM Raven. At that time, Archer's reaction is that he's interested in why Bee is PMing so late in the cycle, especially with Bee facing early pressure. My response is that since Raven can't c/p, Raven has to make the judgement call for himself about phishiness because it's kind of hard to when working (in the PM) off Raven's reporting and we can't see the original exchange. I ask Raven this cycle if he had received any claims/scans, given the paucity of PMs last cycle. Raven confirms the situation hasn't changed and his PMs are with me, Aet, and Bee. I ask Raven if he thinks it's plausible that Village players are the ones who hung back more wrt willingness to spend their one PM on Raven. Raven's reaction is that he's not sure but he feels Bee has been pressing him pretty directly on what the HP has been sharing with him. My thoughts on this issue: -I'm approaching this more from an outlier perspective: by and large, most Village players seem to have been conservative with PMs. I say this because exactly three players PMed Raven, and in fact, I myself didn't initiate the Raven PM I'm in. So I'm curious about whether: A. The Elims delegated one member to PM Raven B. PMing Raven should be V!indicative or not. I'm not sure there's a definite valence to scan curiosity in light of Raven dropping HP hints, but honestly to some extent this is a "do I trust Raven's judgement that it seemed phishy" or not sort of deal. But it's worth dropping now to discuss, and I arguably held this back a bit too long I guess. Edited to add 2: What is the info you believe we have gained, and how does it inform your position this cycle? To be clear, this is directly a "if you are V I don't wanna ML you" ask at this point.

Yeah. I find it an outlier because as TUA's admission reveals, very few players actually contacted Raven. In fact, there was no HP claimant, therefore no scan results. At this juncture, this leads me to believe there is no HP or an E!HP (the first is technically possible, the latter- Ah. Crem. I'm an idiot. Line of reasoning - I feel it is less likely that we are seeing a no HP game because it's usually a bit much for a GM to scam players into a game that is all regulars on steroids. It's technically possible, however. The lack of a claim to Raven suggests to me a new/low confidence E!HP who doesn't dare to do the claim/misleading. (In the world there is a V!HP, they're clearly not scanning, which is in itself a remarkable decision, alongside the decision to not claim to the confirmed Villager and if we screw up this cycle, we're at lylo next cycle, so I think the utility of dodging the issue has come to an end.) Here's the thing though. If E!HP, E!Bee knows there is no HP, so why is Bee asking Raven about the HP's scans? Do we postulate the Elims are concerned about a double HP world? Gonna re-read the group PM one more time to confirm I'm not misrepresenting Raven's phrasing.

He wasn't asking who was HP according to Raven - he was asking for HP scan info. I'd still like to hear his mentality because I've got Bee in the category/profile of players I struggle to read because new/erratic a little, but I feel the phishing is semi-remarkable in a landscape where pretty much no one PMed Raven. Trying to decide if you are Priest or Heretic! Red team or green team. In terms of direction, I guess I'd ask about whether you feel about the current situation. Does anyone seem heretical/suspicious, etc. We've had two rounds of going after people who turned out green after all. If you are green team, appreciate you are busy but do try to vote/stay engaged if you can! If we screw up this cycle, we lose if we vote wrong next cycle or if not all of us vote, so it's worth being on the ball. Maybe flip the other way - who do you trust rn?

Atm thread mood looks like Cash v. Bee. I'm also trying to get a sense of what I think about you. You were pretty chill about being put up for death C1 and you've been sheeping pretty unapologetically for both C1 and C2. Low reactions C1 could mean you're Village, but hard to make the call. Direct thought here is to get your views, indirect thought here is to solidify a thought on you.

More seriously, I'm just contemplating choices. @Wierdo Where's your top suspicions rn? If you are Village, you have to know that your vote is crucial, especially going into next cycle if we screw up this one. Lack of consensus next cycle if we botch this cycle means the Elims can hammer to win.

is this your divine command? execute the heretics in your honour?

@RoyalBeeMage Why were you trying to phish Raven for HP info?

Hmm. Actually. The three cycle rule suggests that if you don't see anything overtly V from TUA by C3, set him on fire. I'll do that re-read after doing the Cash re-read.

Any reason why Cash is your secondary? Suggestive here you're prioritising Wierdo as the more suspicious of the Wierdo/Cash pair. I don't have a strong TUA read. Theoretically it'd be vote-based, but TUA hasn't had much of a great record. Edited to add: Where's my emotional support Aman/Drake/Araris/Archer when I need 'em

Edited to add: Some additional thoughts for everyone to chew on. -I'm actually personally concerned I'm One Thinging Cash. This is the one thing (lol) that gives me pause, particularly in light of significant Cash ML history in his SE play. -I feel E!TUA has a history of opportunism and I'm concerned TUA is being opportunistic here. That being said, there's one thing E!him did that sets off personal alarm bells that hasn't emerged this time (yet.) -I just generally have Aet concerns. -I think it is worth putting this on the table, and that's that Bee and Aet had weird PMs with Raven, with Bee seeming to phish Raven for HP info (!) I think this is worth noting in a landscape where PMing/contacting Raven was the exception among players and not the rule, and it makes me question whether Elims: A. chose to only have one member contact Raven (thinking of the Aet/Bee not E/E deal) and B. whether therefore engagement with Raven is noteworthy seeing as it is generally not done and majority of players should have been Village. Edited to add: Crossed slightly back to V!Bee, but not in a definitive way. Bee's still overall in null territory for me. Minimally I was going to cite Bee's exchange with Neil and Stick in QF70b as being more solving indicative but honestly when I re-read those posts, I found Bee was just as prone to giving random reasons for votes, going on to issue gut reads under pressure. The random reasons bit doesn't seem too different from the Archer vote reason Bee offered. There's the bandwagoning element in the LG but QF!Bee at one point sheeped my vote and at another point, voted Neil (IIRC, could've been another player) just so Stick would stop yelling at everyone to vote Neil.

Funny thing is this might mean I've crossed the fence a little because I did see some similarity on doing a QF70 re-read for Bee but not overt. Bee's just in a slightly hard to read place. @RoyalBeeMage - Why did you feel Archer being random was Evil, are you able to spell out your thought process?

@Cash67 Hey a question occurred to me. If you were V leaning Archer even mildly, why didn't you voice any reservations to the Archer train? EDIT: @The Unknown Ajah Aet views? Also can you please explain the reasoning behind your team guesses you listed with Cash @Aeternum What is your current E team guess @RoyalBeeMage Same as the others Anyone else feel free to do without needing an @ from me

No, I'm just saying they cannot be teamed so there is at most one Elim between them. Again, cannot be teamed because A. cross-voted EoD C1, and B. were happy to endanger each other, therefore fairly unlikely they are E!teammates. It's possible they are both Village but if they are both Village, this narrows down the pool further: As a quick illustration, this is the suspect pool from my POV: <Aet, Cash, Bee, Spark, Kas, TUA, Weaver, Wierdo> I'm never gonna sus myself for obvious reasons. I think there are reasons to endorse V!Spark. Given that: <Aet, Cash, Bee, Spark, Kas, TUA, Weaver, Wierdo> Suppose Cash and Wierdo are both Village. <Aet, Cash, Bee, Spark, Kas, TUA, Weaver, Wierdo> A foteriori it's just four players, and we have at least a 50% chance of shooting an Elim in there. 75% if it's a three Elim team. The whole point of my mentioning they are not E together is because if your worldview entails E!Wierdo and E!Cash, then something has gone wrong and more likely than not, you need to revise something.

Any reason why you're narrowing to Wierdo and Cash? Edited to add: I don't have a solid/strong evaluation but I ask because I think TUA is kind of getting away without much pressure. I do have some reasons to endorse V!TUA but I also don't feel too strongly about them, and have other E!TUA views. Pre-narrowing to Wierdo/Cash feels odd to me in light of that. TUA having strong synergy with Wierdo or Cash feels like one answer to me, and I think we're also back to the problem of the Aeo and Kidpen kills. TUA does explain (IMO) a Kidpen shot, if only because he was online to see a strong shift off Kidpen. In that sense, Wierdo/Cash feels like a false dilemma to me because my main question is: well, why not TUA or anyone else? Bracketing all these concerns, I'd argue It Depends on what you find more troubling: -The anti-Wierdo case is Wierdo sheeping onto Cash C1 and getting @ for it. Wierdo is fairly chill about potentially getting exed, and sort of just follows Raven onto Archer/off Archer C2 and doesn't participate further. If you think that the Village wasn't really onto anyone C2 (I sorta lean that way for the moment? It could be V/E but this would cast you as having made the saving vote for Weaver but there are reasons to think you and Weaver aren't E/E.) -I've listed out the Cash reasons. If forced to, I would lean Cash ig. But the danger here in going for all the vocal suspicious people is that you get stuck with a painful set to sift through at lylo so there's some level of ceteris paribus argument for Wierdo. But yeah I guess I narrowly favour Cash regardless. Edited to add 2: FWIW: I don't really think Aet and Weaver are E/E, and neither are Aet and Bee. Cash and Wierdo also seem precluded. I don't have strong preclusions beyond that which indicates theoretically TUA is a bit of a LBD here, but the very last time I voted an LBD in a game we MLed a Villager so I don't know that I would do this on LBD grounds alone. I was hoping for stronger preclusions and a more narrow set to look at teams but it is what it is. Questions to ask ig: -Does an E!Bee team shoot Aeo with Aeo defending Bee? -How chill is an E!Weaver team with Weaver being in the top two trains? We had a high level of vote engagement last cycle with Weaver and Wierdo not voting. -Does E!Aet shoot Kidpen after also voting Kidpen? (I agree with Archer on this that this seems less likely a call and would necessitate E!Aet having a teammate on near rollover.) -Does E!Cash decide not to shoot me? (Theoretically I guess the answer here is I've been V!reading Cash somewhat until this cycle, though the fact I was @ing Cash over that vote last cycle should've been indicative.) Edited to add 3: I am minded to channel Stick's "I believe in pressure on all the slots" here tbh. But given activity levels, I also have more faith in V!Cash giving something to work with compared to (necessarily at any rate) V!Wierdo.

I'm largely pushing Cash off the Nero vote and the sense that Cash isn't really interested in solving as compared to the MR, with a side of 'why are you legit still pokevoting here.' The main problem with this theory is that I don't have an answer for why the Elims were fine with this all the way through EoD! This formation stayed for quite a while, with, IIRC, the main shift being Aet moving off Spark and onto Kidpen at my lobbying. This means Cash has been quite fine with this state of affairs. Now you could argue this is because E!Cash is fine with rolling the dice, but that still feels a bit ??? The reason I feel uncomfortable with this as a resolution is because the alternative is pretty weird too. Suppose a teammate was on, so no fear from Cash. That kinda just leaves you, but means you're aggressively bussing Cash rn, which is an odd position to be playing to since Village is basically screwed as long as you can force a ML this cycle and murder me. Losing one Elim is strategically worse in a two-Elim/three-Elim world due to the Lovers rule because it means you can do everything right and still die when the Village kills your partner. (The other contenders are Kidpen who flipped Village, and me, and I'm obviously a non-starter for myself.) (I green this because Wierdo is basically Village in an E!Cash world, straightforwardly. I'd argue that Cash's willingness to park on Spark basically softclears Spark in that world too, meaning potential teammates for Cash are stuck in the set of: <Weaver, Aet, RBM>, but that leaves us with some trouble due to Cash Nero energy on Weaver. ) Why so? Why so when Aet voted Archer? Ngl I am thinking Spark is V. Some of this has to do with the timing of Spark's post and the likelihood Spark feels this disengaged with a team doc, and some of this has to do with the fact that bracketing Aet, if you think I'm Village and you yourself are Village, then the primary vote movements on C1 happened from Villagers rather than Elims which suggests both a deep-lying team and complacency - Aet moved off Spark, indicating this wasn't enough to arouse Elim interest. (There's an additional level about Spark dramatising this/AtEing - I usually prefer to give the benefit of the doubt unless the player is known to poison the well, but moreover, I just kind of feel there was no reason to as Spark wasn't under substantive pressure, and Cash's solo vote from last cycle wasn't gonna do anything.) I will add there's a certain degree of ease in the thread on either C1/C2 that stuck out to me wrt claiming Elim that I'm not sure an Elim easily says, but yeah purity reads. That's what I'm asking, yeah. But I also believe it might very well be more destructive to deepwolf hunt here - the cost of error is taking out an active Villager into lylo, whereas if we get the other Elim, E!Aet dies anyway in a two-Elim world, and in a three-Elim world, becomes vulnerable next cycle. It's a borderline decision IMO but I kinda feel he can cook unless there's some reason to believe he's the best push for this cycle. Noting as an aside though that there some reasons I also believe Aeo is a you-kill, so I'm not fully committed to V!you at this juncture. Well, self-meta has its own issues, but it's worth hearing anyway. Keep in mind that Wierdo was an endgame train on EoD - only left contention because Kidpen swapped off Wierdo and onto Cash, then Raven. I'm not saying Wierdo has to be town here but I am saying that this has implications for Cash and the Elim disposition/mentality C1. Edited to add: I agree FWIW that in a V!Aet world, you can shoot Aet too, but I'm guessing E!you probably reckons V!Aet is a friendlier ML target than V!me. Edited to add 2: One response here could be a foteriori V!Cash, but I'm not necessarily comfortable with the other things. Still it's worth emphasising I think this is the one time not to lock in suspicions and to try to look down different avenues before EoC, since we really have no margin of error next cycle if we screw up this cycle. That being said, it is absolutely troubling to me that the main putative teammate for Cash IMO is TUA. Edited to add 3: Sorry I keep missing saying the one thing I wanna - like the Cash thing is troubling to me because it was suggested I was gonna be active through EoD (pace Archer) and I was on E!Cash until pretty late in the cycle, so is that a gamble they gonna take? It pretty much nearly backfired too because Kidpen went and voted Cash, which meant that Cash nearly died at that point - that's why I wonder if there's a teammate on at EoD.

Taking Neil's point about self-meta, having gotten the first game under your belt, think you'd try to pull a louder wolf on randing wolf in future? It's ironic in a way because I actually somewhat defend them and it's Stick who is more suspicious of them. But taking them at face value, you're committed to a team in Wierdo/Cash/TUA, with a me-side. You'd almost certainly have to swap me in because Cash and Wierdo cross-voted and left the votes there C1, which is weakly suggestive they don't really care about each other's welfare. (You could postulate that they were cool because of TUA, but I don't believe Kidpen stayed at a solid majority to EoD because I moved off Kidpen, so TUA was essentially coming on and gambling someone else would change things. Being content with your team forming 2/3 of the endgame votes through a decent chunk of EoD is way more chill than I plausibly expect!) My question to you is: is this a coherent team/where you gonna push? If not, then there's absolutely a problem with one of your purity reads. I would say my own experience with them is they can be right or wrong, just like any other form of analysis. I've seen people get Raven right on a purity read and I've seen Aman screw the Village with the Insanity purity read. So it's the implications of this many purity reads that I'm questioning rather than the technique in and of itself. Yeah so how's it informative if/when Archer flips V? Feels like it's only useful info-wise if you pre-flipped Archer E.

I mean honestly I'd still @ her if we need the votes, especially since we are at lylo, but I kind of also was moving towards V!Spark anyway on the basis of vote analysis. If PH comes in next cycle and we ML this cycle, we'd be at 3:3. You cannot afford to poke vote at 3:3, it's ML and lose. Don't understand this attitude here? Edited to add: This should read 'nearing' lylo, as in one cycle from it. I think that's partly the thing I'm pressuring you/Cash about - you're playing as though there's more time than we really have and I can't decide if this is just a Villager who hasn't internalised the dynamics of the situation yet or an Elim paving the way for a nonsense ML at lylo next cycle or even this cycle.

Gonna be blunt bro. Spark has outright said she's not enjoying this game and in my exchange with her, I've suggested she ask for a PH. You can have your views about the "I won't lie" meta (IMO it's an inverse Tani/Quirk 2.0 that has caused problems in the past and can be worth ignoring outright) but I think an 'I don't enjoy this and I am going to step out' is, regardless of Spark's alignment, a reasonable indicator that a vote ain't gonna change the incentive balance. Edited to add: Essentially I'm saying that most of what you've all been citing on these three players boils down to purity reads. I'm concerned about it for a bunch of reasons, including the threshold for these reads and the resulting team coherence. It surprises me more for Aeo as I have no real you-yardstick besides LG99 but I'm interested in... Hmm how about this. Why did you play so quiet in LG99? It was clear to me that game you were holding back but difficult to understand extent/why. Edited to add 2: Yes and no IMO. The strength of your Aeo town clear last cycle puts you in the shortlist of players who'd choose to NK Aeo, though after Aeo's longpost, that's pretty much a given anyway. Aeo's last push was Weaver, and prior to that, Aeo strongly defended RBM (duh.) I'm considering whether there's a connection kill. Given I had more explicitly committed to V!you than Aeo had, I could see preference reasons for keeping me alive v. Aeo. I'll put a full disclaimer here that in general I'm not fond of deepwolf para fighting especially close to lylo, but the fact TUA broaches it makes me wanna recheck all my thoughts, especially because I asked about what you expected to gain from an Archer info-vote (waiting on this.) To some extent, I think there's an argument to be made that there's no necessary reason to worry about deepwolf!you now because if we can take out an Elim this cycle, then killing your partner takes out deepwolf!you anyway, so we don't necessarily need to solve you. That being said, I think, to quote Aman, there's strong reason to believe we had better bloody see red in the flips for next cycle, so that does mean not ignoring things unnecessarily. In general you would still not be the first suspect I'm looking at this cycle. Edited to add 3: Conflicted between whether E!Cash pulls off Spark, or just sort of takes the same lazy push and runs with it.

Is there a reason you're still voting Spark? Edited to add: I just want to remind you that in the worst case world, by your own analysis, we are one cycle away from lylo. You seriously believe we're gonna wanna resolve RBM/Spark at lylo?

@The Unknown Ajah What were your Aet thoughts?

@Spark of Hope Would you consider asking for a PH if you're not enjoying it? I believe Quirk signed up as one, which allows you to be replaced instead of having to play on. You'd have to ask within your GM PM but that might form a neat resolution.

Spark and Bee unlikely E/E together. Leaning Bee as the E of the pair atm. There's an argument E!Bee doesn't shoot Aeo and I'm trying to decide how much I buy it because of the Kidpen shot.

Put in a separate post for length/messiness due to formatting. C2 Vote Analysis RAW BROKEN DOWN Side-note that the Bee timezone defense is wild to me because Bee and I are nominally in the same timezone. From my POV, the Weaver train has high purity so there's a solid chance with Weaver, but that isn't really indicative either. People who stand out: -Wierdo sheeps Raven onto Archer then hops back off again. Doesn't vote for the rest of the cycle or really re-appear. This should get @ more. -Spark-Bee herding onto Archer. Contextually cannot really be considered protective, but the one-trains in existence at that point are <Bee, Weaver, Wierdo, Aet.> -Weaver's non-reaction implies either a dgaf or a connection with Aet. I think I've stated elsewhere there's an Aet interaction with Weaver that doesn't look E/E so I gotta recheck that. I am not sure why I felt this was not E/E. Can kind of see it I guess. I'll stay with Cash for Nero energy for now. I think theorising an E!Cash world has implications for C1 so I'll go back and check for consistency. Four dead at this point means eight: 5:3. Misexeing this cycle means lylo. We really do not want to be at lylo because when you hit lylo, every cycle after that is lylo which is annoying af. (There's a 2-team world but we always want to be wargaming for the worst case scenario, not best case.) If the HP has not already contacted Raven, you should do so. Next cycle is absolutely not the cycle to deal with HP BS because that opens a new level of stress and a new can of wyrms for everyone. Raven is a confirmed Villager, and there is zero excuse not to contact Raven.

I don't disagree with relooking Aet (one of the other players I could see backing an Aeo shot), but I'm reluctant to issue a negative read on the basis of the playstyle 180 and the pushing for an Elim exe D1. Think it's easy to let Village sleepwalk here. I guess one final reason I have wrt the purity reads issue is: Suppose, for the moment, that we can adopt a coarse-grained sift for veterancy: Veteran: <Archer, Raven, Bee, Aeo, Kidpen, TUA, Kas, Cash> New: <Aet, Spark, Wierdo, Weaver> If you italicise Bee because Bee can be either group (third game), it's a bit stark: we regularly pressure in New and a bit out of it, but the people dropping dead are all Veterans. Clearing the New pool and shooting in Vet could be correct but from my POV, it'd have to be a <Bee, Cash, TUA> team. I'm fine voting Cash for now, but if you don't feel you have a coherent team in here, then someone in New has been cleared too quickly. And shooting in a pool the Elims are also happy to clear is probably suggestive there's something wrong going on. Anyway I've said enough about that. Well, the thing with me most players forget is I don't go for accuracy from the start, but I do lock down the thread, making it hard for Elims to gain thread control, and I correct over time. So I don't get killed too early, but the challenge is when there is a good time to kill me, so as to speak, and that needle is not always threaded correctly. tldr; I could see either way. Fair. I'll take it with a pinch of salt, but I think it does point to the idea whoever agreed to the kill decided to ignore Aeo's post, or just views being NKed as different from being exed. I'll clarify something now that Archer's dead: Archer wasn't doing it 'for fun' - he was running a reaction test because he made the same observation I did in LG99 which was behind my claiming to have found an Aeo tell - no matter how many games she tells you she plays, she retains a hypersensitivity to voting, and this can help you read her. I chose not to vote her this game because I did not like repeatedly exploiting this response by putting her under pressure just to elicit her yelling and it felt like being cruel (I think I alluded to this in a post), but that factor also did in part influence my Archer read. However, waking up to the test was a bit of a surprise for me, yeah. Archer didn't feel it was worth furth discussing the test/acknowledging it after Aeo's nth post, and I respected that. Edited to add: I have one with Archer and Raven. Also, admitting publicly to which PMs you have probably helps Elims HP hunt, so be careful. I don't necessarily believe the Elims are doing so since they shot Aeo, but am keeping in mind that the Aeo shot is consistent with Raven's HP declaration timing. That being said, I think it is possible we are in an E!HP world, or that there is no HP altogether. Edited to add 2: I want to see this, and question the info-exe framing. Edited to add 3: Why?

A lot of this comes down to Weaver and the vote movements IMO. I don't think it necessitates a Weaver flip but I need to go over it as the Archer train surge could be protective (need to check vote movements), which would indicate an Elim coming into contention, whether via Weaver or elsewhere. Wierdo and Weaver both did not vote, which is interesting on Weaver's part given the train volumes, and could be positive (but I'm not willing to push this as much cf. Bee.) I'll start with Cash for that Nero energy but would also consider TUA. Still fitting your kill MO so far imo. With regard to the purity reads, the last thing I wanted to say was in theory it's fine to have a lot of them if you have a coherent PoE afterwards but if you're left with a pool of players not super consistent with the Kidpen kill, then you should have questions, and that's the energy I was getting off the mass purity reads.