Kasimir

For the record, two things from last cycle: I acknowledge my Village read! I feel this post generally doesn't come from an Elim: E!Penguin asks his docmates, and not Ksauce who to vote for. E!Penguin...just doesn't even ask this question, it's just such a weird question to ask. My one point of hesitation is: ...Why not just random number vote when Ksauce asked for a shift? Why ask Ksauce where your vote would go otherwise? (Note: in a world where the trains were V/V, I don't think this is a big concern. I would argue even in a V/E world, it probably is maybe fine.) That being said, I think this is generally consistent so far with Penguin's lost behaviour for C1, and I'm ok with a mild to light Citizen read on Penguin. I don't know how to regard this post in that I don't understand: A. Why the maf would be trying to dogpile on KSauce - if you think KSauce has bad vibes (presumably weak null- at least), then why is it intruiging the maf aren't trying to dogpile KSauce? (For that matter, you yourself just mentioned why you wouldn't want to exe KSauce right now - going from that to 'but why aren't the maf trying to kill KSauce though?' is something I don't really understand as a line of thought.) B. I mean, KSauce pretty much kind of did get dogpiled on so I'm not sure where that conclusion came from. At one point at that EoD, KSauce had 4 votes (hi, guilty) - and before that, KSauce was stable on three. Considering most people were stagnant at one vote this cycle, and before TJ voted Polly, Polly also had one, isn't that pretty much a dogpile anyway? I think the bigger emphasis for me is: maf are not trying to dogpile KSauce - I'm considering if that's TMI, since [Edited to finish thought: we don't know the train composition on KSauce, though I do think Penguin is Village.] C. Suggesting the maf wanted to dogpile KSauce specifically (implied by "why are they not" suggests a TJ E!read but if not, why not vote TJ? However: I also don't know if E!Aster chooses to specifically make this post right before the flip, knowing that KSauce is gonna flip Village (due to the vote manipulation.) E!reading KSauce in that window is kinda bold, though I've known Aster never to pass up a bold play. Kinda makes me wanna V!lean ngl. I am not accepting complaints I wanna V!read anyone who isn't Polly

This is a QF. Uhhhh if you remember the combined phase thing Drake ran forever ago, the one y'all were not too hot on and were like "let's never do that again", it's that kind of thing, but you signed up for the 24 hour version rather than 48 hour version. I don't disagree but as TUN says, it takes a really specific comp. It's kinda like a frame kill where it requires some thread control, though it's a bit easier than a NK in some respects because there is a more obvious smoking gun. This means it is possible to do two generally mutually-exclusive possibility analyses for worlds and look for compatibility with our current gamestate. Not to mention vote analysis. I think we are likely going to have to flip TJ regardless - however, I will be dead and in my dotage before I consent to waste a cycle by deciding the exe less than two hours into it (not at you, this is a more general statement.) I'd like to hear TJ's views on his survival, too.

@Aster Am back but Shard has a fifteen minute automerge on messages. Might need you to send something, otherwise you gotta refresh for my new message to show up in the merge.

I think if TJ were Village, I can't see an upside to the vote manip here. Though there's also the question of when it was placed. RIP Ksauce. I really wanted a Pollyvot rather than either train.

LIVOT O'CLOCK Polly 2 EDIT: 2 but think Jo missed my vote because of merge. Not sure.

I s2g you are making me want to do this. KaladinKSoz wtf are reads anymore. EDIT: AAAAAAAAAAA F it. Polly POLLYVOT REAL? @A Jo in the Bush

RIP good luck bhai my bad

Bro makes me wanna self vote so I don't gotta deal with this crap

...Pollyvot anyone? EDIT: I honest to god don't like TJ's opening vibes I just also don't feel like this EoD comes from E!TJ.

Then why the f aren't you fing voting either of these people Bhai you are literally in this state because of your vote on you. If you don't like Ksauce you can resolve it here. If you can post, you can vote gdi EDIT: Like I feel I'm supposed to make an E TJ would gaf more in this landscape read here but tbh I don't remotely understand why you wouldn't go "x looks Evil", slap a forever vote down on them, and stop self-voting at the same time.

Okay, Penguin can stay in the Citizen Maybe tier.

Okay I see the issue - as soon as TJ votes, you get exed. Missed he still counts as self-voting. Given TJ is on GMT, I kinda think he should be able to vote but no guarantees, and don't particularly feel it implicates his alignment here as he's been getting busier. Lmao literally ninjaed by TJ, go me. Interestingly, I got a PM from TOW earlier asking about my TJ vote. I need to check against the votestate at that juncture but I doubt it's a pivot; TOW was phrasing it like "oh hey why do you sus TJ I think TJ sus too." Not really considering a TOW/TJ E/E world but it's an interesting choice if TOW's team said "Hey PM Kas and tell him that"

So here's the thing. Sometimes, individual player tendencies mean they are particularly opposed to dying and it is your first game. At the same time, if a player is particularly opposed to dying and radiating desperation, I also immediately tend to ask why, because in general, it is way worse for an Elim to die than it is for a Villager to die - it hurts your team more. They get a oneshot Mercy shot, and that still kills you. Vote vetoing doesn't tell us if a player is Elim, it just gives us an IKYK analysis to do. My problem is I might be leaning to now thinking both of you are Village, in which case I'd want a pivot, but I also have issues because even if a pivot happens, you're both carrying those votes into the next round.

I'm trying to decide: A. If E!TJ is comfortable with carrying three votes on him into the next round. B. If E!Kaysoh's teammates let him make a suggestion like this. Edited to add: Pivot, maybe? Edited to add 2: Low key wanna slightly give Null mild village points for this. If in Null's head, it was gonna be a tie before this, then E!Null should be flipping a chull.

Ties kill everyone involved. There is no 50%. Also I voted TJ so TJ is currently in the lead. Edited to add: My bad, I did not actually vote TJ yet. Now I'm gonna think about it

I am a simple man. I see RP, I upvote RP In terms of actual reads: I kind of E!lean TJ, although I agree it's D1 as usual, and it's gonna suck if I'm wrong which is...objectively pretty likely. The more I think about it, the more I don't like his entrance vibes - he's kinda deflecting a bit, I'm not a fan of, especially compared to Striker just owning it. Striker can keep the V credit for the moment. I want to give Aster credit for the pushback but /shrug as well. Excluded: Striker, Spirit, Aster, TUN, Penguin, Polly, Triple B PoE: Anyone not mentioned in the first category. Edited to add: I can kinda maybe see TOW being a Citizen (V!TOW for those who aren't used to the shorthand) in a V!TJ world.

I approved the ruleset and I forgot the Soothe existed or that ties kill everyone. I think it happens Someone did I'm not mentioning who because I don't need to shame them in thread for it Yeah. But it does show a certain dgaf about votes on her. It's not big yet, but it's something I'm noting, especially because my vote is currently also on Polly.

*grumbles in "I taught this to undergrads, don't make me watch people on the Internet do this"* Countertrain. Say in a game with a lead train of size 4, your CWs are probably the trains at size 3, maybe the lone size 2 train. (This is overly specific and may or may not emerge from experience.) Basically CW is shorthand for "this person might realistically get exed instead." PMs are 1-on-1 only btw.

I'm mainly considering the adage you shouldn't PM anything you're not willing to have said to the Elims so you might as well do it in the thread, barring a read. And then I did the necessary "is 3 pages enough to form a read, is this Elim TMI" moment

See, my main thoughts here RE that are: Village absolutely needs vote analysis. This is a vote-heavy game. The Elims have powers that are all vote-centric so NKA is gonna be more vote analysis. Elims have no kill. This means they are essentially required to force a favourable exe regardless. Just by overall distro rules, CWs are likely to be villager-dominant and to carry into next cycle (logically, if you're a competent Elim and your buddies are all on CWs, this is not a good EoD for you. I agree the Soothe might change things a little though. I forgot to account for how much that might shift things.) It's hard to ask for convergence in a game as distributed as this. We can worry about trailing votes, but realistically, convergence probably happens about now, or earlier, which drastically kills time we can spend discussing and doing actual meaningful thread things. (This is the part that makes me lean the most against it.) Edited to add: I'm interested in what this means about your reads this early But I know it's not out of character for you.

I'm divided on how I feel about this tbh. I kind of half did my thoughts on this in a PM with Aster and one with TUN but I was considering the extent to which it would really suck for the Village to be dealing with major CW votes carrying over to the next cycle and make things easier for the Elims. I'm now weakly convinced the costs of forcing early consolidation are too high and we just gotta live with it. I think the CW thing might just be something to watch going into endgame as we don't want to be blindsided by a rogue train then. But yeah tldr; I agree with Spirit after further reflection RE: votes but think we can't sacrifice the ability to force Elims to respond to CWs now.

Darker Shade of Black - Blackmore's Night

Yeah sorry I'm reading-challenged. I even wrote wiw an apology form tunnelling on her referring to it what can I say it's been a stressful week or so. i acknowledge the despoiler of laws

Did you just usurp wiw's vanity role >:P it's giving Yeah Drake spreading hostvoting to M&M corrupted you smh

Me rw the thread is full on free will v. determinism: P.S. It's Kalhavar @A Jo in the Bush Gotta be thematic and stay Vorin I like this from Spirit. I can see this coming from either alignment, but he gets a tiny bit of V cred for this at a time when thread tempo is very distracted. I liked Striker's opening vibes and would probably give him a tiny bit of V cred for it too, but Striker's old enough to be able to take that kind of question easily. TJ's vibes weren't as good, or at least I'm not sure what to make of them, so he doesn't get the credit. Polly