Kasimir

You have a Sailor, no?

I'm only on this many because of my wrist and Hael. Otherwise I'd probably game more, sadly. Joining you on The Sunlit Man! I just cleared Red Sky and wasn't really in the mood to move on to steampunk so Sunlit it is

Sailor feedback is so great

Is this the Shadow Campaigns I've been marathoning books a lot recently because of my wrist and because Hael and I are doing a 'read 52 books before the end of the year' goal/resolution thing. I just finished: -Children of Dune Part of a Dune marathon instigated by TJ and an essay about how Frank Herbert wrote Salafist themes into Dune. (I actually wanted to stop at DM because I knew if I did CoD I'd have to do GEoD before stopping, but there are fair reasons to go on to CoD instead of stopping at DM.) I got into re-reading it for lulz because everytime I read Duneiverse, I hate it, and I love it only after I'm done. I actually liked it a lot more this round, which might mean that my predominant memories of Dune are just reading the lot when I was fifteen or so because classmate I liked was super into it and then not getting everything that was going on and hating the everloving crem out of Frank Herbert's writing style. -The Tournament at Gorlan I like the Ranger's Apprentice series a lot. Yeah it's a kids book and arguably jumped the shark at Emperor of Nihon-Ja but in general it's simple and does a few bunch of things well, and sometimes it's nice to go back to a simple book to look at the craft and then do the simple thing well before writing anything more complicated. I liked the worldbuilding of the Ranger Corps, and watching younger Halt and Crowley get up to shenanigans is always fun. Also part of an ongoing marathon. Reading: -The Winged Histories (re-read) -God Emperor of Dune (please let me stop there please let me stop there) -Red Sky in the Morning (re-read) (I know there are three reads in progress - I have a system with two Kindles and a physical book. It's maybe not functional but mood is a thing for cattle or making love or reading )

1. If you deliberately "use AtM" as a tactic and have a long-known tendency to self-destruct, I consider you to have thoroughly poisoned the well - I'm not invested in keeping you alive or caring because there is equal probability of it being crocodile tears as well as it being genuine. Hell, I'll be more invested in letting new players live beyond a "oh this is not their literal first game so I can D1 them without guilt." This is absolutely a MU tactic I have zero patience for. Just because it's their second game does not immediately make D1ing them okay. 2. Space faeries did not lie I am the Quokka Whisperer. Congrats to the Elim team and thanks to Sart for running and letting me be Village! I was super out of this game/apathetic and I think I spent most of my time rejoicing to Araris that I dgaf and bemoaning that it took RL busy stress stuff to keep me dgaf.

Removed as requested! Since it's taking longer to get games set-up and also because I'm lazy and have the spreadsheet open for updates right now: MR List: 1. @Ookla of Colors (hasn't logged in since 13 Feb) 2. @Karnatheon (missing) 3. @Ashbringer 4. @Steeldancer (missing) 5. @JNV [Note: JNV is running a non-Sanderson game but does not need a pass as the free slot is currently available.] 6. @Kasimir (...I'd prefer not to.) 7. @shadow1 (missing) 8. @xinoehp512 Presuming we can find at least one GM in this set. We can expand it if not. Suggest Ash and JNV iron it out between themselves?

1. IMO no point shooting Hairy. Hairy last showed up on D1. @Sart, with Hairy failing to post past D1, does Hairy die during D3 or start N3? Ooer. Side-thought: Nasty complication for us I maybe didn't think about. Suppose for now Hairy is Village. (Worst case scenario, remember?) If so: -Aman misshoots -Elim kill succeeds 6/3 -> 4/3 Theoretically 4/3 is not lylo, but: Further suppose V!Hairy dies D3: 3/3 -> lylo V!Hairy dies N3: 4/3 -> ML takes us to 3/3 and Hairy perishing of inactivity and being keelhauled -> 2/3 V loss. 2. I will bracket this comment by noting I don't like to lean too heavily on GM meta. However: -Sart is known to want to choose randomly (+) -I still doubt most GMs would let that team through - it's a team that has no real support for the new players. You can argue that Araris and Szeth ran that team in QF64 but I'll note that team had you. (-) I'm not strongly convinced the team missed a kill. I'm still leaning towards the view they deliberately killed TJ because I generally feel inactivity hunting should be last ditch, not first effort, especially in our predicament. (It has corrosive effects on Village capacity IMO.) It's absolutely possible that my reluctance to do so will be lethal for us here, but that's why I'm looking at both you and Aman. (I've considered Drake and JNV again, but am still less convinced they fit for now.) The main things holding me back are that, as I said, it's kinda unhelpful to tell Aman frankly 'kys' ( ) though I've mentioned my suspicion of him more than once. The other reason I dislike the Raven/2 Newbies formulation: -Raven is too missing to do much reading into -Newbies too passive for this Essentially pushing them is going for a crapshoot because it doesn't feel there's much to go off. It's maybe a shocking statement coming from me, the believer in discussed exes, but the tepidity of the thread from the past two cycles is not leaving me too optimistic that we'll see an indicator we're hitting something. We could take this as a sign that we're not pressuring the right people, but where does that leave us? <Aet, Raven, Hairy> because Bee has faced lethal pressure and no one batted an eye, not even Bee. Raven is barely there, Hairy has not showed up since D1. That's a Hail Sithis shot if I ever saw one.

PoE + it seems harsh to tell Aman 'kys' and also lbr if he's Village that's a bad shout, if he's Evil, he's not gonna shoot himself.

No. Just actions.

Some puppies want to watch the world burn

Brevity is the soul of wit but alas in this game we are Witless Do not test me I will write u a dissertation

s m d f h

EDITED TO ADD: Probably pretty awkward as I'm beginning to question you all over again, but bracketing that, I think TKN makes sense here. Have not had bandwidth to look at the comparator games but if you bracket meta and do vote profiling, I'd argue TKN is probably the most sus of those on the D1 5-train on Aeo. Also generally not of the view the 5-train is pure. (JNV has also reminded me a missed kill is not impossible for TKN which harks back to your Barron theory.) My alternative hypotheses do include Aet and you as I feel your WiM has been lacking and you have been more reactive than I'm comfortable with. (Wrt to Aet on acronyms — WiM = "Want it More" — it refers to a player's drive and motivation to play/solve. Aman sometimes lacks it when Evil.) Your more recent posts/PMs are making me yet again reconsider on you though, since they feel more positive. IMO Drake is correct that we are at a turning point. I think if I go meta-blind just in case it is driving me off, and re-examine, then more opens up. EDIT2: Fair, it happens! Edited to add 3: Sorry, missed this as was scanning the thread on mobile earlier having just woken up. FNG = Freakin' New Guy. It's the play you only get to pull once (Aeo tried this, technically Araris tried this too, my E!team in my first ever game on this site told me to pull it as well) where you mask your capabilities, enter a game, and pretend to not know anything about what's going on. The aim is to get players to give you an easy pass to avoid suspicion and blindside them. Of course you can only do it once. Flipping is just another word for 'exeing', but it can be method-agnostic, i.e. shooting TKN/TBB with Crimson is also flipping TBB. All flipping means is that one way or another, you want to see the player's role and alignment show up in the write-up, so you know for sure. The discussion about pre-flipping on D1 was just that sometimes Evil players know how a player is going to flip already (since they know everyone's alignments) and so may slip up by having unwarranted confidence/knowledge of a player's flip. The other issue with regard to pre-flipping is that it's just bad Village play in general but there's a fine line between 'good Villager' and 'has the time to do it.' We try to vote the most sus player (with asterisks - I was not sure I fully believed E!Bee but also felt there was something to be said for people getting Bee out of their systems because you don't want to be a whisker away from losing at 3/3 and still debating Bee, hence my being willing to have Bee tied with Faerie.) However, even then, it's usually bad Village play to 'pre-flip' them and immediately assume they'll flip Evil and work on that assumption. Normally you'll want to try to work out what happens if they flip Village, which was the point of the 'what if Bee flips V though' discussion earlier - I just felt we weren't sufficiently clear and a lot of that seemed like us circling the same player pools without being able to go/have a solid indicator of "Okay, we are thoroughly wrong on this profile, and need to go look elsewhere." Maybe Bee still needed to be exed - that's a fair criticism. But it's still not a good sign if that's the best we can do RE: "oh ig Faerie next" (had Bee been exed) without some reflection on whether we were looking the right way or not in the first place. @DrakeMarshall is correct that things are getting tight for us, which means we need to put in actions and start claiming. I will remind everyone that if Aman misshoots tonight, we go into tomorrow 4/3. This means we lose if we misexe tomorrow. (We are currently 6/3 - assuming a standard Elim team of 3. I agree with Drake that it's unlikely to be otherwise - Sart loves to use the squareroot rule but probably has rounded down. Even if there's 2, we have to play on the assumption there's 3 because that's the worst case scenario.) What I am saying is everyone needs to buckle up and pony up because it's gonna get rough. Consider using your spores because you may not get a second chance tomorrow if Aman misshoots. It's true we can try to be lucky (wrt blocking or redirecting a kill tomorrow Night, if we end up being 3/3). I'm just reminding everyone two things: A. For tonight, keep in mind you don't want to hoard indefinitely either. Spores unused by the end of the game do not help your team. I'm not saying use it tonight, I'm saying consider using it tonight if not tomorrow Night. B. In the event I'm dead that when we're at near-lylo (cf. 3/3 or 4/3), then you may need to prepare to start claiming everything. Holding on to info when it's do or die time for the Village is unhelpful to everyone on your team. Edited to add 4: There's no natural connection between my being dead and y'all preparing to start claiming. This is more a "I know people get too invested in not saying things so remember this if I'm not here to aggressively remind you"

Dude why didn't you say this earlier when everyone was breaking their brains on D2. To be clear everyone: Either Aet is lying here or TJ died without using Zephyr. Pretty much unescapable because of the delta — no missing Zephyr spore.

Yeah. Which is what made me not wanna vote you since I feel like E!you would've been more on top of that. Even if you forgot, your team should have remembered.

You made a comment asking about the vote on you pretty late into the cycle - could've easily voted just about anyone else to save yourself at that point.

ffs Alright. Let's sub this back into D1. This is raw. This is with my credences substituted in: Unsure what I currently believe about Aman and TBB at this juncture. (For TBB, I actually want to systematically recheck against TBB's E games when I have the time, which won't be significantly until this weekend. Current V lean on TBB is on the basis of TBB being a bit ) Flagging that Raven and Hairy were barely present N1, so they could be Evil (sightly doubt for Raven, V!Raven so far has had this tendency to make unsystematic pushes based on personal desires) but it's irrelevant for the moment if we're doing a pool search. D1 still had low tempo, and we know the main two trains were Village. I still think this implies Elim complacency but the alternative is that this implies that the Elims were simply low activity. I currently believe the No Vote tier is more Village-dominated, so I'm slightly forced to examine the votes for where Elims are hiding. The main candidates here (pretty much more or less entailed I think) - TBB - I feel TBB's voting pattern is a bit too aggressive for E!TBB but also don't think it's impossible and need the bandwidth. If someone else wants to get on it for me, I'd like if if you can check the LG run by Szeth, in particular, along with QF64. Also potentially QF66 (I think that's the one I ran.) [Note: If TBB is Evil, it is very unlikely Royal is Evil. Do not believe TBB generally saves teammates - he's a bit more of an ignorer/softbusser, cf. the JNV game he referenced.] Raven - Could not have put in NK but vote parked on Aeo, which would fit the complacency profile. Do not really think Raven is Evil but this is a weak read on the basis of Raven's pushes. Aet - Personally, I slightly believe/sense that Aet is making a FNG play and I think Aet is following more than they'd let on, but am not strongly convinced of this. Aet's TJ park is a good place for an Elim to be. Royal - Honestly, Royal is that hard-to-deal with shade of new that looks Evil enough to be Evil or LHF, and I respect if people just want to flip them to know for sure because we don't want to repeat this ad infinitum. This is why I was fine with Royal being in the tie. There's something to be said for getting the ? out of your system. The main thing that swayed me enough to be cool tying Royal with Faerie was the sense that E!Royal should've just voted. Because, you know, why not. Easy enough for Royal to have at least forced a tie here, and self-pres always looks less sus - I think Royal's teammates should've reasonably yelled at him to self-pres. @Aeternum Did you grab a spore last Night/attempt to? Let's top it up with last Day's results: Extremely high disengagement here. Royal was in the lead and then vanished without signing back in. Aet was fine with a Faerie/RBM tie, as was presumably Raven. Credenced: @Sart When will Hairy die or be PHed, by your current count? @DrakeMarshall Want your take on this. I agree wrt the proactive defense issue but I'm not sold about the general apathy level/lack of reactive defense issue. The cycle felt very low tempo as well and I don't know if this means no hit, or in general this is everyone's energy level for this game.

Jebiga then. Faerie Final answer. Gtg. EDIT: Sart just clarified Zephyrs cannot redirect other Zephyrs. No time to deal with the implications but this makes the Night Verdant rush a bit more sus to me. Legit nfc how to process this info gtg.

I think the question here is: suppose Royal does in fact flip V. Where do we go from here? Which does go back to the voting Royal deal. I see this to some extent as choosing the low profile hypothesis for testing so—if Royal flips V, do we take this as falsification? Do we go to Faerie? If it isn't falsification, is this the value play? Royal, nominally speaking, edges out Faerie for me just a bit with regard to meta comparison (for what little value a single game has here—Faerie feels a tad more different from E!Faerie but...) I don't like the fact that Royal has a simple self-pres tie vote that Royal's not taking. This makes me worried it's not a hit and I'm low-key considering tying with Faerie. Edited to add: Probably ignoring a bunch of things here as I'm rushed for time.

The vote scattering here makes me wonder about the state of the vote. Royal. I don't like the fact this means I'm voting with Faerie but I think it's better to get vote responses earlier than later.

It's happened deliberately in a game Drake GMed, but I can't see it as a first choice scenario here. I would be more inclined to consider this but I did a check of account timestamps prior to Raven showing up. Raven and Hairy both last logged in at some point after Rollovet on D1 and missed all of N1. Not impossible Raven was on on the doc but I expect less doc presence in that landscape - TJ too was arguing jn favour of Raven, against Aeo. That's not necessarily the sort of kill that makes sense there for cover. I do have a theory TJ got deliberately killed because the Elims wanted to take out someone with Zephyr, but the problem with that theory is that the Elims don't seem to have bothered with claiming Zephyr at Night at all. Unless the theory is something like this: they prioritised a Zephyr kill because no one claimed Verdant in the Day, and then at least one of them made a Verdant grab at Night. I'm guessing they would not have all made a Verdant grab, too risky. Which means at least one of our Verdant takers was Evil. To me, parsimony here simply entails we accept TJ was targeted, or that the Elims forgot to submit the NK. Which...I agree with Drake that it is often more possible than one thinks, and often less likely to be what happened than one expects. JNV doesn't miss kills when Evil. They came on at Night, therefore would have put in a holding order. If there's a player I have confidence in meta-reading at all, it's probably JNV. I don't say this because I think they're in danger now, but I just want it solidly there if I'm dead tonight since I think they are readable. Repeating until I am blue in the face: I have said this before and will say it again. Some of you have also acknowledged I am right on this score and then promptly used it to misread JNV in QF70b, which was actually sad >> JNV has high WiM when Evil and low WiM when Village - I will never issue a high certainty JNV Village read prior to C3, but will also say they are in their Village low activity/inactivity meta for the moment. The high WiM shows up in things like unnecessarily performative presence posts, e.g. in QF70b C1, where they essentially made a 'nothing post' that had no real analysis but presence, and didn't remotely bother to vote. (I'll note their lack of a vote did throw me off, but the showiness was what stuck out to me ) Cf. Misreading JNV Meta Exhibit A: Misreading JNV Meta Exhibit B: It is absolutely possible they are throwing me off and this will end very badly for my correctly reading JNV streak. But I want to point out that the whole reason the tell has been resilient is the fact they have the mirror image of my Village tell, which is that the WiM inevitably means E!they can't stop themselves from just showing up and doing things, whereas V!they won't really show up unless they force themselves. This WiM issue is also why their tell has been fairly resilient so far: it's just hard to eradicate when you have differential motivation. This is why nothing posts stick out more especially when it was an active Day with voting and JNV had nothing to add to it at all. Just KIV as I am expecting to be next on the kill list tonight, and also partly busy. Watch for a pattern of engagement or disengagement, by C3. At that point they are basically pretty readable.

Spelling it out for the last time: The reason why it's helpful to know if there was a Zephyr/Verdant/Roseite action last Night: 1. The spore is a one-off. It's not like you can use it again. 2. It either helps us resolve the mystery of TJ's death in a way that identifies suspects for us, or it helps us very weakly clear a player (RE: Verdant - Verdant precedes Zephyr so anyone who roleblocked a player basically guarantees that player could not have made a kill last Night. It doesn't make them not Evil, but there are ten players left in this game, and neither Raven nor Hairy were online for all of N1. This creates a starting pool of eight that a roleblock and some analysis can further narrow.) 3. In the case of Roseite, given overall reluctance to claim, it is likely to entail a softclear of the player you protected. I slightly disagree with Drake in that I actually think that the fact we've been asking until we're blue in the face for a claim and there's been no claim should entail that there is just no such action to be postulated, but I also do want to spell it out to remove the possibility someone just doesn't realise why it is - not crucial, but important - to resolve this issue. My current stance is I just think we can't really postulate that, unfortunately. I have a slight theory FWIW on Zephyr interactions. @Sart What happens if a Zephyr user redirects another? Suppose TJ is redirecting Faerie to Bee. Meanwhile, Faerie redirects TJ to Aman. How is this resolved? Adding I am not going for a spore today after all. I like my PMs, thank you

The easiest way to resolve this is if anyone claimed Zephyr last Night. The delta is zero so if there's even a single Zephyr claimant, the delta can only be accounted for by TJ dying with his spore unused. This doesn't really help us wrt the case where an Elim claimed Zephyr, but since a positive here immediately rules this world out, it's worth asking for. Basically I think it's a good set of profiles to begin from but it has to go back to reads/basic D1 work, yeah. At some point given the paucity of information here we just have to accept this is what we've got and we're probably not making further progress with this. I'm starting to worry I'm tunnelling on Faerie but have no issue with the Royal lead thus far. I'm content with Aet pressure for the moment, however, but this is more due to vote profiling concerns. I think wrt Faerie it's also true she's been a more decisive E!voter so far, so Faerie's diffidence here feels ??? - but if I bracket the player meta issue, then yeah I don't really like Faerie's D1 with the hedginess + desistance wrt Aeo as it felt more like a combination of leaving options open and not wanting to be stuck on an E!train. Reconsidering Aman mildly for reasons but would not push Aman today. Awkward position for me because I generally feel you should vote no matter what but also am trying to understand your mindset there as it's rare for players to feel they absolutely have to vote. Edited to add: @The Bald Brandon Did you grab Zephyr last Night?

Oh, which one?

Day One Voting: Notes/Thoughts: -Immediate retaliatory vote on Aeo from Raven not unusual for Raven but parking and subsequent disengagement feels ??? - @Amanuensis, you mentioned believing it seemed more Village on balance, why? -RBM asking in-thread about rules issues: no doc discussion or? -Aet showing interest in spore claims but not solving. -I feel most of Faerie's reads apart from Aman still feel hedgey. -Drake voted Royal today and had Royal as a decent read D1. What's the shift? - @RoyalBeeMage - You mention you wouldn't know who else to vote for if not Aeo. Did you consider not voting? - @The Bald Brandon - Why the D1 vote? - @Faerie Braids - Why no D1 vote? Saw you were on and content and let the Aeo issue play itself out. - @Aeternum - Why the TJ vote? - The votes were pretty low tempo at the start until the Aeo train gained momentum but it was also poorly contested, which obviously suggests little sense of threat/endangerment. Working off personal credences for now. I expect to be wrong somewhere, but I have nothing to use if not my own credences. I'll weakly exclude Raven for inactivity reasons - he could still be E but he wouldn't have made the NK decision. At this moment, I think I'm going to Aet which is going to be awkward given my subsequent post but oh well. I am concerned I am tunnelling on Faerie, Royal has enough pressure, and I think parking on TJ is a good place to be in light of the Aeo 5-train. - No - that's only 4-world where we assume crem happens or something and the entire team did not make a kill. I'm forced to consider this more likely than I normally would buit less likely than 1-world variants - A and B are two possibilities under 1-world. It just so happens that the B team profile in 1-world is similar to the profile in 4-world. I'm saying that given no claims to a protect, block, or redirect right now, we are forced to consider these possibilities: 1. Elims killed TJ -> Why? -> A. Hyperconfidence, B. Foreign Meta/Assessments 2. Elims did not put in an order -> Why? -> C. Low Activity There is a strong overlap in membership between sets B and C, but this is largely because the players in Hyperconfidence are, for the reasons of set membership, also the people who wouldn't miss kills. Or to put it another way - if you are the sort of guy who can control the thread to the point you are down with shooting TJ, you are definitely not going to miss a kill. That's my issue, yes. I don't really expect the correct answer to be pure A or B or C, I just think it's a question of which profile is dominant, with asterisks.