Kasimir

I feel this can be partly mitigated by Stick NKing the exe target tbh. True. This just makes me really want to exe Faerie more tbh because it feels like a dangler strategy and I'm not willing to ignore this without a sense of what the actual payoff should be. Or maybe I should just get sleep instead of being cranky Who would you have voted? I can confirm this is true. Doesn't this basically narrow PoE down for Drake? Feels like vanity shot here. I could say the exact same to you. If you think my saying this to you is unsatisfactory, then maybe consider that's my exact reaction when you say it. It's not obvious to me at all. I don't think you are understanding where this is coming from. I'm about 95% committed to V!Stick, with the 5% of my brain considering that Drake is pulling something weird. Stick has claimed Informant, Drake has claimed Elim. Majority worlds have V!Stick. I'm not concerned about sheeping for Stick reasons - I trust her judgement and I don't trust mine in isolation. She's the player whose timezone is closest to mine since Drake is Evil af and therefore a non-starter. If I want to bounce thoughts off someone, she's my best bet. In that light, I'm not comfortable with her sheeping me because I am conflicted about the fact that I see Sart's tell and I also feel that in any other player, I would have auto V!read and never looked back. I was hoping Stick could help me make sense of this. I'm basically where I was wrt JNV on C1 of MR67 - I have the gut judgement but dislike it for various reasons and distrust myself enough IDK if I want to be sheeped - I want someone whose judgement I trust and believe to be Village to tell me why I'm crazy so I can figure out how crazy I am. If I fundamentally trust Stick's judgement at least as much as my own, it's reasonable or at least consistent I'm willing to defer to her if I don't feel strongly about the issue. RIP sis I feel this pain except I'm not getting up soddit I have a theory Stick has asked me not to share with the class and I semi-agree. Edited to add: I'm aware this becomes so much more of a Choice given: But you know. Drake had the bad taste to actually apparently be Evil af so I'm short on options right now ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add 2: I suppose I could add there's Aman too, but he had the bad taste to be both Evil and dead (leaving aside the fact I just up and voted him so technically it's a wee bit on me), so wcyd ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Most of my usual thought bounce options are just unavailable for one reason or other (e.g. TJ, GMing) and Stick's a pretty good shout so.

Yeah, understandable given Drake probably has at least ten stabby shenanigans hidden up his murderpuppy sleeves smhhhhh Edited to add: I don't envy you having to wrestle Drake I feel I lucked out here by not being the Informant

wtaf sis what why what's with y'all did y'all just not watch Infernal Affairs or something (I mean I know TJ didn't but) I am...not sure it's totally the worst? Like I think we could theoretically do link analysis. Constables (VILLAGE!) win if the last Elim and Informant/Contact die at the same time, meaning if we accidentally wagon the Contact today and hit the Insider tomorrow, Village wins. But I agree with you it's not ideal in that we enter sudden death mode for the game. But I actually think the most convincing argument for V!Sart is his declining to join you on Drake despite all of you agreeing Aman was going to die. In E!you world, that kills the Informant, which helps you simply use the NK to clean up, in Informant!you world, that kills Drake and Aman, meaning he can collect the NK and then kill the Contact subsequently. Is there a reason he would not go for this? Edited to add: No one @ me I'm watching Bleu with a friend.

Edited to add: Vc for anyone who might not be following: In retrospect JNV's vote on Aeo is interesting - Aeo's chaosplay (my theory) usually sets JNV off, but in this case, Aeo is actually...not doing much, so I'm surprised Aeo looks Evil to JNV. But anyway that's a problem for people who aren't me as I need sleep.

lmao. I guess I'll GM PM it then as I did the charts and analysis I think from raw profiling, there are two sets of Insider candidates: 1. <Neil, Faerie> 2. <Aeo, Sart> I currently lean against JNV, Royal, and Raven as Insiders for various reasons, which are not necessarily strong but are informing my views for this cycle. Lurker theory pre-supposes Insider behaviour, but in retrospect, I don't find it particularly or necessarily compelling as a response to the (fairly) unexpected/unprecedented triple Elim reveal. So maybe the better approach is to treat it as an approximate reaction test and to look for outliers. There's an asterisk here because the Insider isn't with that sort of TMI, but given the Insider's wincon, they should probably be mildly invested in the outcome. Summary: Nope. Not very useful. I guess there's going a bit more in depth? [Compliant] - Royal votes Drake on being asked to, citing annoyance with multiple posts. (I am leaning against this as Insider behaviour, and indeed, think the Insider would probably be more invested in working out what's going on. But it's worth noting both Aman and Stick had voted Drake at that point, meaning it's a vote an Insider should theoretically feel comfortable with, if packaged well. But usually-perception-focused Royal just...dgaf about the optics of this vote! Joining...two Elims on a third...without question? There's definitely the chance it's a higher level play, and I'm looking at the wrong layer, but for the moment, I like this look.) [Silence] - Aeo has exactly one post, and ignores the rest of the chaos. This is it. She does ask Aman about who his teammates are, so there's some interest. But she also doesn't do much else, which I find notable for a player who usually is way too noisy when there's chaos (there's probably a better way of phrasing this, bite me. I just mean that Aeo usually likes to be where the chaos is.) And she notably declines to shift her vote as well despite seeming to engage with the problem. [NOPE] - Faerie doesn't want to engage with the issue and explicitly peaces out, wanting more information. (I question, to a lesser extent, Faerie not wanting to get involved. I think it's possible E!Faerie sits this one out and figures the two Elims in the doc should solve this, but... I do wonder. I also do wonder if Faerie consistently missing that the Insider and the Informant don't flip normally is AI - I might weakly V!lean this.) Worth noting Drake engages with Faerie to remind her about the flips. Faerie doesn't respond. (Faerie - would this have changed your view on the end of C1?) [Circling-Vote] - Neil sort of stays there and observes and ???s a bit, but engages with Stick when she asks him to vote for Drake over Aman, before voting Drake. I differentiate this from the other responses because Neil doesn't just vote immediately like Royal does, and doesn't overengage the way Sart does. He just kind of sits in a corner and mulls a bit, asks a few questions, apparently rethinks Aman, but ultimately votes Drake. Worth noting Neil moves off Faerie and onto Drake: This has the effect of tying Drake and Stick, and also bringing Drake into contention. (If you think Neil didn't notice Aman's Stick vote due to only three minutes between the posts, then effectively, Neil thinks the vc is: Which is Neil being willing to stack onto a train with Aman and Stick on it.) [ENGAGEMENT] - Sart engages with the specifics of the claim, trying to work out what is going on, and then plans a Village course ahead. Sigh. Again, I'm torn. Because I personally feel that Sart's D1 feels Village and I would not hesitate to deem it Village...if it were any player other than Sart. (Note to self: re-read LG88.) Then again, I think on a closer look, a lot of it does feel like make-work rather than necessarily solving. Let's look at what Sart says: 1. This first post is a commentary post, which basically contends that our situation isn't great, and then suspects that the situation is a gambit. This is...an interesting response. Because I feel like Sart is the first player in the mass of reactions to suggest that a gambit might be happening. I don't fully think that's necessarily a thought anyone has articulated up to that point. It feels a little significant compared to what everyone else thinks. (Keep in mind that apparently-gambit-minded Faerie hasn't even suggested this!) 2. Sart asks Aman about the votestate in the doc. 3. Points out inconsistency in Aman's and Drake's reported vcs. 4. Asks Aman how the Village wins if he is the dying Informant. I think this is a fair question as it's normally not in the Informant's interest to claim. I like this post. 5. Asks Stick for the vc and claims Stick should've claimed normal Villager. I vibe with this sass tbh. 6. Sart returns to ask about the Informant v Insider NK situation. No further cogitation on the Aman/Stick/Drake situation. I'd like to V!read this as the Informant should theoretically know this, but IDK. 7. Sart suggesting the Village try to hit the Insider. Subsequent realisation a tied Honestly these two posts feel organic to me in development. SIGH. I really hate this. I really really hate this can I just ignore my sense there's a tell because I cannot. I cannot freakin' stand this. Ahhhhhhhhhhh He also makes a small slip here: @Stick. HELP. He seems to mistake the Informant for the Insider at some point. The first highlighted sentence in particular is weird because Stick and Drake killing themselves doesn't give the Informant complete control - Sart's already clarified this previously by asking who wins in a tussle between the Insider and the Informant. (#6) Part of me feels that Insider!Sart is less likely to make this kind of slip between the Informant and the Insider. Part of me feels that E!Sart is more likely to be concerned about the Informant. (Stick catches this, tbf.) 8. I feel like Insider!Sart here should be more cavalier about finding an excuse to vote Drake, because that's the winning recipe for him to get the kill. I really don't E!read this move. Sure, Insider!Sart could be trying to get Contact!Faerie killed, but having seen no takers, his next winning move is Drake. Recall: Aman dies, Drake dies, Sart gets the kill, and then kills Faerie. Stick has not seen this flaw yet. Yet, he explicitly repudiates this to go: [Edit from future Kas: @RoyalBeeMage So sorry to @ you in the middle of a long post. I'm curious how you feel about this argument, but I now believe that this vote here from Sart looks Villagery.] Ah jebiga then. I really cannot and it feels bad to be voting on a player to follow a tell when I also really like the rest of his posts ffs. If he fooled me, he fooled me that's a future problem ig. Sart, Faerie - I still theorise it might be Aeo, but I have a Faerie potential theory maybe. IDK. [Edit from future Kas: I've also taken a look at LG88 and believe there's some continuity with Sart's play in that game so I am going to bracket that for now.] [NOTHING] - Alv, JNV, Kas (all presumably not on. Not sure about Alv.) tldr; -Sart can look V for now -V!lean Alv for early D2 suggestion Believe JNV, Royal, and Raven are unlikely candidates for Insider, but reasoning here is weaker: -Royal's D1 vote in response to Stick doesn't feel intuitive for an Insider -This is masked by CNY but JNV appears out of it in a way that makes me think they might be Village (weak) -I don't strongly feel Raven is Jaining (I do suspect so but they're weak suspicions) and Raven's play doesn't strongly suggest Insider. This leaves me with a pool of <Neil, Aeo, Faerie.> Of the three of them: -I am probably/possibly tentatively willing to sheep Stick on Neil still, cf. considerations mentioned earlier. -I actually still think Aeo is a decent candidate here: Aeo's sudden disengagement IMO especially in the middle of a lot of chaos makes me theorise E!Aeo. (I think the defeater here is if E!Aeo doesn't try to seek Village cred here. But IDK.) -Faerie...I am tempted to think Faerie apparently not being aware of how the Insider and the Informant works looks a bit more V. Between the two of them, I'll probably go onto Faerie, but I am really tempted to just vote Aeo and be done with. I don't know if I can be on before rollover again, so I'll consider it a last effort. It's unlikely, but miracles sometimes happen right?

I guess to precisify: by kayana, I feel that V!Sart and I have typically orthogonal or radically differing views of the gamestate, to the point I question if we are playing the same game. It’s a very visceral read of "wtaf where is this coming from." With E!Sart, I tend to really vibe or get what he's saying, and our gamestate views converge. Anyway. Do you think it's worth uttering a theory I have about the identity of the Insider? This ignores my Sart read and comes at the issue from a different angle. My main concern here is it might be used to unmask the Contact as well but you and Drake are sharp enough I really don't see this as being a significant trade-off but IDK. Again I just need someone to think with sry

Well, I guess trade-offs right? Both of you voting in the PoE (bracketing the fact one of you will be Contact hunting) basically looks like a pool of two but it's actually a pool of one because we can't conclude anything about the player who didn't flip. You voting the exe target means that mininally we get an effective flip, and otherwise, a pool of two which has one effective dead member. (I am mostly thinking aloud, but also, if I'm missing something here...) Edited to add: I'll add I think it's worthwhile knowing if the dead player was a Villager because it enables better vote analysis than conditional analysis - which can be done or is a pain. P.S. If I'm dead, I'd request people to look at JNV's other two reads and reasoning with MR67 lenses in mind. I don't particularly V read them as of this point - they're just a null for me due to CNY confounding factors, which I think makes it harder to get any solid inactivity clear for them. Edited to add 2: Uggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhh I really really fing hate this. I am mindmelding with Sart so hard I should be willing to think he is Village but I have never mindmelded with V!Sart! I have always thought he is absolutely utterly batcrem kayana! Why am I mindmelding with Sart wtaf is going on here Edited to add 3: @neil the beguiled: What's your Alv read? I ask specifically in light of your D1 comment you and Alv are not E/E. @Aeoryi: Motivation behind early Faerie naked vote D1? @Faerie Braids: Motivation behind early Alv naked vote D1? @RoyalBeeMage: Motivation behind early Faerie naked vote D1? Also, why did you ask Stick what her read of you was? I'm currently going through D1 again and chasing down a theory. @Alvron Possible to solicit your general thoughts?

Edited to add: I suppose if you want me to add a few extra considerations: -I don't fully like my reaction to Sart because I kind of feel it's grotesque to vote for a player I'm mostly vibing with. -I do think Sart's emphasis on wanting to know for sure we've won doesn't fully make sense to me, and I feel that pushing for certainty tends to emerge from an Elim perspective. -I also do feel Sart looked Village from the last EoD, if I bracket my reaction to him. I can sympathise with this, but I feel there's a point where the cycles to loss (i.e. margin for error) balances out without requiring us to gun our way through the entire Village. Sart's never replied either with regard to Drake's challenge about how we can manage player numbers sufficiently. Cards on the table: if we can guarantee an endgame where it's Stick v Drake, it really doesn't matter which of the two of them is Evil. Village wins. The big problem is that it's a big if - as Drake points out, there are things he and the Insider can do to screw with this path to victory. They know they lose if we can get this endgame, so of course they will fight us for it. @RoyalBeeMage This is really the best extra thoughts I can give you, I think. @Stick. - Sudden thought. Is it worth trying to double on the exe target on your end? This guarantees that in any cycle where the kill is missing, we know whether the flipped player was a Villager or not. Edited to add 2: Sorry not quite, but we know that it's in a set of two: the dead player, or whoever Drake targeted, which is a nice set to have.

I leave it to your best judgement. As much as I am doing I suppose a better job of masking than I am last cycle, depressed!Kas brain is not in the mood for high-octane strategic stuff, even if solving is a good distraction. I've said as much in the thread: it's a highly subjective thing but unfailingly, when I vibe with Sart and he seems logical, he's usually Evil. For whatever the reason, I always think V!him is insane and has off-the-wall takes. It's how I've found E!him and V!him in multiple past games. I can link them if you like, but it's not helpful to you unless you think I am Village as well.

1. Drake has claimed to be an outed Elim, and Stick is the Informant, i.e. on our side. We can't vote them, because if we vote Drake, the last Elim gets the NK, and we lose the game in two cycles, which can be a bit tight. 2. These guys are all voting Neil. Aeo declined to offer reasons. Sart thinks Neil was lurking at EoD last cycle. Faerie thinks voting Neil will be informative. Drake is Evil so I dgaf about his reasons, but will note his willingness to vote Neil is unlikely to be a good sign, though Drake excels at mindgames. I am voting Sart because I think I have noticed Sart's E!tell appear in his play. Stick is voting Sart because she's willing to go with my read of Sart. JNV is being JNV. Neil is countervoting Faerie. To recap, we are trying to find the Insider (last Elim). Our problem is the Insider will flip Village so this boils down to just voting the person who looks most Evil right now.

I actually fully am willing to believe I!you because I see hints of Drake's E!meta lmao, but at the same time, the ??? just makes me feel HMM. I feel like I should just let go of the desire for everything to make sense and go with the flow Do you feel Faerie's continued inability to realise that the Insider flips V and the Informant flips E is AI? Moreover, what's your view on Sart's plan? I agree it's a future problem, but I do feel the Village has a fairly robust decision-tree with regard to deciding at what point we think things are clean enough to go shoot Drake. I'm concerned about your willingness to sheep my Sart read because I don't see it as being stronger than a 'just trust me bro.' Is there something that would change your mind on V!Neil? Finally, I suppose I'd ask: is there any indication you can give us on what the vote state in the Elim doc is rn? My sense is both of you shooting outside the doc might work because if one of you hits the Insider, then we can simply just vote the Insider and call it a day. Outside votes should trump inside votes IIRC. A lot of these tbh are not suspicion questions, they're just 'help I need someone in the thread to talk to' questions. Edited to add: What, specifically, are you struggling with?

So...how does Aman believe you are an Elim with him exactly...? Look sis can you do me a favour and walk me through exactly what happened from your point of view in the doc and in the thread, because some things don't add up and while it's certifiably insane for me to question you seeing as Drake has already claimed Elim my mind just cannot let go of the nonsense and wants to know why I believe my reaction to TJ when describing my plans for each role was: "If I'm the Informant, cry ig because wtf is my life even." Does this not make you believe V!Sart? I ask as I kind of want people to challenge me on this. I can't let go of the fact I think I've sighted Sart's E!tell but I'm also used to more people disagreeing with me on reading Sart and I'm concerned I'm wrong about Sart. Edited to add: Btw, TJ mentioned he's gonna be away for most of the cycle, so anyone who wants an updated tally of the votes should remember to use Tallybot, which Drake has already conveniently updated, thank you murderpuppy for helping the Village

But you claimed to have doubletapped Aman early because Aman made the mistake of vote locking. So how does that match...?

1. Why does E!Aman pres on Drake though? Both of them pressed on Drake, why not pres on Aman who was dying anyway? 2. Why Sart over Neil or Faerie?

The only helpful flip is a Contact flip. Clearly I'm claiming Insider which is why I want Sart dead. Well, but you see the point. If the Insider flips Village, then prima facie an Insider flip is not helpful because we will not, from the flip itself, get more info that helps us with knowing where to go so I don't understand Faerie's attitude here. If we take Faerie at face value then the best way to make sense of it is she thinks Neil is the Contact which is uh... Not something I am comfortable V leaning immediately. An early Contact flip is helpful in the form of connectives but it just goes against the grain, for me, to vote a Contact candidate. I regard the flip as a consolation prize. The goal is to hit the Insider ASAP. Edited to add: @|TJ| I cannot fing believe you fing got me to sign up for a FLIPLESS GAME ON STILTS AGAIN SMHHHHHHH

u still reading frieren? Edited to add: Current state of thoughts: -Alv -> V!lean -Aman -> BSing, E. - Aeo-> Slight E!lean, potentially willing to flip. -Stick -> Could be E gdaf not my problem rn -Drake -> 100% corrupt murderpuppy -Neil -> 50/50 ig. Stick's defense of Neil still doesn't feel E/E and while I'm tempted to just run with it, it's also C2. I didn't like Neil's suggestion we don't know what's happening in the Elim doc because as we can see, that's just...prima facie false. We can try to make inferences from differentials in play, e.g. bandwidth hypothesis, which was true of Drake and Aman both. -Raven -> I don't know if I like Raven's current thought processes as I feel he's overjustifying at points, but he's not my first pick for an Insider candidate. -Sart -> Offered my thoughts enough times. Sort of feel I've picked up his E!tell. -JNV -> CNY is a major obscuring factor here with my ability to read them. @JNV, when you check back in, can you offer me two other reads on people who aren't me? -Faerie -> I'm still not a fan of Faerie's avid lurking. Could have made a genuine mistake in this post but I'm currently theorising the Insider declining to get involved. I...maybe think there's a slight reason to lean against Faerie but I don't feel it's a strong one (Insider should be most aware of the flip complication because Insider flips Village no matter what.) -Royal -> Not a fan of Royal's only preoccupation being own read but don't feel Royal is lead candidate for Insider either. I think biggest candidate pool for me right now is in <Sart, Aeo, Neil> for my vote, with a Faerie side.

It is if Aman was the Informant. If not, and I'm really presuming an early Contact flip here, then the Elims still have to beat the Village for vote dominance as the Insider does not get a say in the kill until the Informant is the last one in the Octet doc. At endgame, everything else gets dicey, and to depressed!Kas brain, it's idgaf territory by that point because I simply don't have the mental bandwidth to want to spend too much time on the permutations.

Didn't you say you thought Aman was Village and also Stick? How so? I am just minded to vote with my heart at this point. I agree/vibe with Sart too much to feel comfortable with V!reading him. It's unfortunate that Sart's V!tell/E!tell for me is this way because it's just plain awkward to vote him only when I vibe with him and argue to protect him when I think he is kayana but this is sometimes just how life is. In theory, this position is compatible with Sart wanting every last Villager dead, I'm just arguing about prioritisation. I'll note if we accidentally do flip the Contact, we might be able to find the Insider via connections. It's worth keeping in mind it's not the end of the world. Edited to add: Smhhhh this is why I objected to Stick wanting to be derpcleared Even during the approvals and wargaming stage, TJ and I kept forgetting the damn rules, why would the Octet be any different smhhhh Stick I told u so sis If I vanish it's Dragon Year BS where relatives continue to ask me to have kids telling me I'd make a great dad, inconveniently bypassing the bit where they used to demand I get married soonest. Expect me to be dead from exasperation and pour a cold one out for my soul in Literature heaven

I'm saying it does out the Insider at that point, meaning if Evil loses the dice toss, they lose hard. ok thank u bro i appreciate the van devouring & ur logging into the doc for me

Edited to add: @neil the beguiled - my bad, I'm still sleepy. Conferatur, Lat. for 'compare to.' Honestly I'm not sure how I feel about this statement, and I always get gut Evil vibes off a player who pushes for certainty because IMO that never emerges organically from a Village mindset. I don't think I'll be moving my vote off Sart. Uh...no, it's just the 'we don't know when the Insider flips' problem. I was trying to work out Sart's logic here. Team Evil does, but how you gonna coordinate? Smhhh murderpuppy I was hoping for another dynamic team-up srs? Oh yeah catching up with my like gazillion pings for when I was sleeping everything off: I see a lot of things I'm not bothering to reply to because they're irrelevant at this juncture. Only one is Neil's which: Yeah, because I wasn't really offering a readslist, which is why I didn't label it as such. The fact Stick was on top, with multiple question marks and I explicitly said V!lean at best implies a lot about how depressed my reads were and how much everyone just looked Evil or bleh to me at the point I was signing off. While I felt Aman was my best shot since I wasn't going to be back again, I think I really would not have objected to anyone except Stick being exed.

Conferatur. I'm saying that regardless of Drake's being Evil, it's a potential spanner in the works. I am currently still voting with my heart and Sart isn't quite crazy enough for me to believe he's Village.

Cf. Drake's rejoinder. We do have to prioritise.

Not really sure how you think you're going to derail that?

I dislike the bit where this plan basically asks us to go for a cointoss because if we literally vote agnostic to the Insider and kill all Villagers, since the Insider flips Village, we're stuck with the eventual coint— Jebiga then. You're right I think. TJ ruled that if the Informant and the last Elim kill each other, the Constable wins. Can anyone see a way this won't happen? Because Drake saying we had eight chances seems to imply he missed this aspect of the rules. It means if we go down to just Drake and Stick left, as long as Aman wasn't the Informant, we win. But I'm still vibing with you and dislike this on principle >>

Edited to add 2: I think the fact that there is no Insider claim beyond Drake and Alv (?) suggests that the Insider is either someone who hasn't been on yet, or, IMO, more plausibly believes that the Informant is still alive. My problem is that Sart's biggest tell for me is that he's usually Evil when he seems sane. This included the LG we three played where my immediate read was that Sart was Evil and I mistakenly walked it back. Of course, I'm not really looking for your input on this one, smhhhhhh corrupt murderpuppy