Kasimir
-
Posts
8611 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
40
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by Kasimir
-
Low key theorising it's via a Spymaster add/scan, which might mean Spymaster involvement/implication in the messages. Claiming blindly like that is a big risk. I'd not expect them to do it unless they had someone they had good synergy with in this game. (tldr; I've seen some variant of this situation from both the village and Elim side, and the Elim run, neither Drake nor I claimed to each other, which caused us both to lose the game because despite our synergy we had massive distrust issues ) Does mean profiling the messages might really be promising but I'm hesitant to get everyone to focus on it because honestly if you can do post reads and/or are better at that sort of thing, messages also can be a distraction. I guess we all just contribute however we can. The bright side is that this might imply we should see some Elim TMI and coordination in voting. That's good because that brings some flavour of vote analysis back online for us. Edited to add: I recognise someone reading this might be like "gdi Kas what have you not played" to which my answer is, "WWE2k25 " But also yeah I went a bit overboard this year in terms of trying to expand my exposure to games and the result was burnout.
-
@DrakeMarshall: Does sending the exact same message but with a different list of people to different recipients burn up more than one message? Edited to add: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Shorthand for mindgames or just trying to distract/lead the Village down bad/wrong paths, cause Villagers to doubt good credences/reads, that sort of thing. Edited to add 2: Guys, odd thought. Can we then presume that whether or not the Elim was in the set of three, they presumably did not send in a kill order on any of the three players named? Be awkward to do this and have one of them drop dead. Edited to add 3: Actually it's interesting to me there's a Newt overlap across both sets. I'm trying to think of what could motivate two separate Elims working together to do this.
-
I guess there's also the world someone in the claim set is an Elim lying to spread FUD ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
-
Wait this is interesting. Fura claimed I was in the message he received. If this is true, then we're just seeing copies of this being sent out with different players listed - this likely indicates at least two Elims managed to hook up. I got a very weird message asking me to do a code. No list of names, durasteel not mentioned, and two authentication parts.
-
Do your homework bro. I gotta give a data analytics presentation on wrestling later (don't ask long story.) Ngl this is deeply weird to me because I then seem to be the only one who received the message I did, which makes me consider if the Elim in question felt like doing a more focused approach - that's a difference in MO and also confidence level. Unfortunately for them, they're also just wrong. Unfortunately for me, there was just no way I could bait a reveal from them.
-
Which two? Able to specify?
-
It's for a good cause man, this looks so good, thanks for sharing! What paper are you using? Is that a Visconti as the second pen? Old-school Pel for the first, no wait, the M100 Royal Blue something something? (Sorry for slow response, still recovering from the COVID/Influenza A thing and my energy levels in threads are not as good as they could be but I really appreciated the update on how the Hub went and am glad you had fun. Pen meets man, 100% finding our people there )
-
Ohhhh damn, okay, yeah, that clears it up, my bad, I was going nuts thinking the stories were not matching up >> If so, we have two messages today. Any chance you can tell me if there was anything stylistic about this one, e.g. the rancor pit like the last one?
-
ACE?
-
Okay. Some stuff I want to clarify because I don't think it is constructive for us to have these conversations in PMs and keep most of the Village in the dark: 1. Lotus has mentioned getting a different message from mine (I'll say more about mine in a bit) and that this message has a list of names, and resembles yesterday's durasteel message. [D3 Message #2] 2. I also wanna confirm - Lotus / Argenti: did Argenti receive or not receive a separate message yesterday, with the term duraluminum instead? This would be a third message circulating yesterday if so. I feel like I'm getting contradictory info from Lotus and from Argenti via Doc so I wanna know what is happening because someone is lying here and that's caught my attention. 3. Someone else (considering whether or not to out them, just a bit of a politeness worry ig) has claimed a message with a three-name long list. I'm not sure if this is the same as Lotus's and would like confirmation. 4. The message I received [D3 Message #1] involved a completely different word and required me to use the dead drop message and a thread message (hence public and private.) For whatever it's worth, I considered trying to bait but given I do not have 1337 Tineye powers, I didn't think the bait would work, so am not really gonna try it. 5. My current read is that while D3 Message #2 might be continuous with yesterday's durasteel message, the name list indicates it's reflective of a little more sophistication and potentially some FUD. I'd like the people who received D3 Message #2 to confirm if there was any mention of rancors or something stylistically similar in it. D3 Message #1 is very bare-bones, which makes me think it is not the same sender as yesterday's durasteel message. 6. Based on the replies, I have some very brief thoughts about the messages and potential senders, but we'll bracket them for now. 7. I don't want us to overfocus on the messages and forget basic bread and butter analysis. Just putting it out there. IDK if I'm in the headspace to do post deep-reads but I'm gonna revisit my thoughts on the STINK kill from D1 because that's at least game-related that isn't wading through messages. All of this was based primarily off post timings and the assumption that most of these players would probably try to deconflict a kill if possible. In particular: Newt, TOW, and to a lesser extent, Divergent would probably not put in a kill order on STINK within that set. (I italicised Exp and Storm back then because in my head, they're players who are screwy enough I don't feel confident making that assertion.) Within the second set, I V!read Lotus, slightly E!lean Argenti, Coder theoretically makes me a bit allergic because of asking for catch-up but that's very strictly NAI, and Doc says Hoid is likely to be replaced so IDK that matters at this point. Exp votes Fura, and this continues the tradition of returnee kills. I kind of feel like Elims would probably wanna leave a number of returness alive to hide (just as a demographic issue), so if there's continued skew, we need to look at the newer player set (which tbf we are doing anyway.) The point is fuzzed a little because this is probabilistic, but yeah. Worth noting: Light pressure to Newt from Exp as Exp doesn't vote there. I don't necessarily think this is a threat kill and it could be a demographic + low info kill, but I'm just musing aloud at this point.
-
Ngl, Argenti's response actually makes me want to double down and stick to my guns. It makes me more sus, funny enough. Like I think for players who've done this a while like Fura, I'm ok with sussing me because it feels like it comes from a fairly normal fog-of-war POV and also pushing me is not something an Elim presumably wants to do on their immediate entrance into the thread. It's high energy and high attention. For that, I do give Fura some V!credit. Also something else Fura did though that's kinda bad as a reason ngl. With Argenti, in context it's a very "no u!" (OMGUS if you play elsewhere, don't ask me to spell it out because it's not considered polite so we don't use the term here) retaliatory type reflex in response to copping flak/sus, and I think newer Elims are especially prone to it, particularly when uncoached. Not ruling out it could come from a Villager headspace, but it's where I'm currently at.
-
The 'new player' bit is what creates error bars IMO because they're just harder to read and tend to buck established meta. But my gameplan for today is to use the 'early' cycle time since I can be around later into the cycle (to lock in my vote or shift it) to try to fill out the last blank spots left in the PoE and then try to narrow down on whether anything jumps out in the players I've been up to this point V!reading by taking a closer look at how they're formulating their reads. Right now it's just a simple crude two-basket approach.
-
We don't lose on parity although parity is rough for us because they effectively control the vote, but might not be coordinated (since they DK who their allies are and who the Head Honcho is) so fog-of-war then protects our Head Honcho 2.0. Our wincon is taking out the Spymaster, no matter the cost. Our losscon is if the Head Honcho X.0 goes down. We're lucky the last Head Honcho found a good successor. It's basically just fog-of-war on stilts which is why I'm not overly concerned with modelling. Fura can be V!lean for now. Argenti, what's up? Edited to add: Specifically wrt the Lotus thing I was talking about since I was kind of rushed yesterday, Lotus approached me in a PM, IDR at what point, and then later claimed to be trying to appear sus or difficult to read so neither side could tell which team he was on. I felt it was interesting - like I can see some merit to being a bit tough to read but obviously en masse, it's a bad environment for the Village to work in, and Lotus further volunteered after some questioning to try to understand his mindset that this strategy emerged from a convo with STINK as a way to have fun in the game. A. I can see this organically emerging and I definitely think STINK is the sort of player to encourage another player to just have fun. B. I kind of feel like going "yeah btw a flipped Elim encouraged me to act sus and be hard to read and I'm going it" is a weird kind of thesis statement to make for your gameplay. There's some ? about how E!Lotus acts, but I feel like your instinct is normally not to immediately credit it to the flipped Elim. There's also a thing where both Lotus and I wanna say Newt are not connected with yesterday's rancor message (I'm not sure it's very STINK either) : I'd like a way to firm up a Coder/Argenti/ACE read. I theoretically have something on the rest even if it's misguided, so PoE kind of pushes me there for the moment. I probably am letting someone off in the <Doc, Storm, Divergent, Fura> set too quickly, but that needs me to have the mind to sit down and go through their posts slowly which is not happening in the next hour.
-
Another message. Trying to work out if this one is from someone smarter or not as this might actually work (not sure, tired tbh.) It's the message with a public/private component with a validation feature that might succeed. Likelihood is multiple people received it, but I'm considering how much to say since it might give the other Elims some idea of what they could try compared to whoever this is. Anyway: The last two days have been this meme man: At this point it's just depressing to be a fan they sending my demon off the bench then back to the bench then maybe off the bench then back to the bench then OFF THE BENCH WITH A GUY MENTIONED FOURTY-FOUR TIMES IN A LAWSUIT icl it's despair-inducing I would just like to not feel anything anymore. And if you PM me, you will bloody well hear about it! I'm coming around to the view FWIW that it's just going to be a maximal lost wolf game but given the Spymaster essentially has an inverse scan, the Spymaster and any docmates will start to acquire significant TMI late into the game. I think the TMI is detectable through weird village reads early in the game and that is probably something we should try to look for since the Spymaster will have less fog of war than most. (I think we also can say we don't need to worry about the Head Honcho being as easily confused in this case since even the Head Honcho has some uncertainty (unrecruited Rebel) whereas the only thing stopping the Spymaster (I think) is a once-a-game RB. Maximal lost wolf does mean there's an incentive for deepwolf play, or simply staying out of the way and letting the thread just make as many mistakes as possible (since on that view, as long as the Spymaster is alive and able to designate a decent successor, well.) I've been trying to look at people who fit the latter profile a little that I had no positive reasons to read, largely for pragmatist reasons of not wanting to open the deepwolf box early. (I suppose the other thing I would say is I do have some light sus of the people with a positive read on me, including you, Doc, and Storm given the levels of your play, and—not quite TMI concerns, more awareness of how Elims tend to prefer to handle me in a game, and there's some reason to think that approach might bear out here—but feel that's somewhat deepwolf territory due to some reason to have read you three positively prior to that (I do feel some of the read basis you've all expressed is a tad overcredenced which is probably why I am mildly concerned too), so I don't want to open that box before it's necessary, but it was at the back of my head and informing the post I made late last cycle urging the Village to remember we have to touch that box eventually. I slightly suspect the thread is subconsciously working with that view which is why we are voting in the low activity/disengaged pool, but at some point, have to really confront that possibility whether we want to or not. I just also think overparanoiding early into the game is bad, especially in a game with high fog-of-war like this because the last thing you wanna do is erode reads confidence or encourage other Villagers to do so. tldr; revise assumptions if late into game with little success, but early on you gotta at least trust your reads, if you undermine them too much then you're in trouble.) [ @Booknewt - spelling out the thoughts more behind what you asked, and also for "if you're Village and I'm dead then you know to take what I'm saying in light of my alignment, maybe consider bracketing some of the deepwolf worlds (you can still think about them that's fine, but don't get carried away) until later." tldr #2; I guess for the record it's 'ok still willing to keep the V!lean but I've a mental asterisk I probably should state for if/when I flip.' I'll be honest, I'm slightly concerned this is showing a skew towards voting perceived veterans for the Rebel kill. I'm not really concerned with dying, I'm concerned in terms of what this reflects about mindset. Edited to add: Apologies, meant to add I bolded the line because I agree with Divergent's question. And no, Divergent, bunch of people told you already but we don't have fancy ISO features. There was a scraper bot at one point but yeah the forum doesn't play nice with them anymore.
-
I made a group PM that included Unknown, STINK, Doc, Exp, etc. Not a trust group obviously, just did it for personal entertainment. Mostly been a "yo you were loltastic when I PMed you before so soddit lets do it again" except in a big group. Trying to decide if Unknown's one mention of [REDACTED] in there reflects a Village mindset.
-
Whoever asked— D2 PM wrt Lotus. Sorry typing and running is toxic.
-
Tldr; distinct chance Spymaster role passes to deepwolf (subwoofer) in late game if it drags on. Plsy incentives akso skewed this game Current reads rightfully ignore deepwolf worlds & village must never begin by hunting deepwolves in early gamme it is v bad strategy if u still need morevexplnaibatokn b/c this is not eboufg het sonwone else yo do 4 u im rushinh Search this sunforum for wgar i say on deepeolves too ig Ok bye sry train is somwonw else's problem FML morning rush vloody mobile typing
-
Sorry guys rushing out rn so I'll keep it short. 1. Don't recall talking about vets so whoever said I did it might've been thinking of someone else. 2. In answer to Doc's qns, italics reflect uncertainty with tier/group placement for whatever reason. 3. Lotus — if I'm dead just know I've expressed (D1) uncertainty around this slot but also feel Lotus made a statement in PMs that connects with STINK and I'm not sure an Elim immediately says they're taking slightly anti-Village tactical advice from a dead Elim. 4. Unknown — no clear read of slot, some lingering D1 reservations connecting with D2 disengagement. Probably one or two smaller Elim profile reasons. 5. At some point we're gonna have to consider a noisier control (maybe) Elim. I DO NOT THINK THE TIME IS NOW (John Cena noises) but this is "if I'm dead and it's D5 or something pls get over that allergy if I'm too dead to say it, I make bigger if I could." Try to be back sry.
-
No. But this is a game with no Elim doc and with friendly-fire enabled. Six is probably the upper limit. Drake actually doesn't really follow the 1/4 orthodoxy (he feels vanilla games should skew smaller, though this isn't one - three for this game on Drake's books, with maybe one extra due to roles, but this is for a non-vanilla game, doesn't take into consideration the fog-of-war.) Anyway I'm too tired so we're gonna assume he does. He mentioned a few times wanting to do a larger Elim team to balance for the no Elim doc and friendly fire capacity. This'd give us something in the vicinity of a +1 or +2 - that's five or six. Yeah my bad, I misunderstood what he meant by 'without replacement' as I see he clarifies later in the sign-up thread. This means that the Rebels actually either: A. Had two friendly-fire targets with STINK being the second one, or: B. Had STINK twice as a friendly-fire target. This probably shifts how convincing pool reasoning is, so I think I would put a little less weight on it but still want to look at it because I think STINK's death still has to reflect a particular set of reads/mindset/take on the threadstate. And while we're at it: So the people who chose not to send messages simply chose not to, or couldn't. Nothing to do with having something else to do.
-
You can't directly edit FWIW. Might need to revise the general rules again a bit Just to remind everyone, you can't c/p PMs too. If you edit, normally we put an edit marker to show what was added - you can't take away or change already-written stuff but you can add clearly-demarcated words, like what I did here: I gave him a null read btw. Chill isn't indicative for STINK. You should know that and should know I know that. But I was never gonna D1 STINK regardless. Edited to add: Can we suppose that the confusion means that neither Lotus nor Newt sent the Rancor message? I would assume that they'd not be able to make that kind of natural slip leading to confusion if they'd written it - there's TMI baked in there.
-
Rancor one's the same as the friends. (Ok but if we can share 'em, is there really any point in being coy about them? I tend to try to maximise info to Village especially if more of us knowing it means coordination problem.) AFAICT: Message #1: Rancor message Players with it: TUN, Newt Message #2: Specific word Players with it: Lotus, Doc Message #3: Sign-Off Players with it: Newt, Kas, TUN If we establish that specific word and rancor are the same messages, then there's just two that we've established. However, there's something a bit weird about the specific word and rancor message (note: it's not a very STINK message I don't think.) Mostly because it was mass sent and almost certainly would include a villager in the pick-up so would never work. So what's the point of it? Does it indicate a certain type of player temperament/experience level? The other thing we can maybe try to do is to match messages with reads, especially depending on who they targeted. The sign-off message IMO looks a bit more screwing around, FWIW, but the specific word and rancor one looks more targeted to me. Exp claimed a message but hasn't stated which. Edited to add: I gave him a null read btw. Chill isn't indicative for STINK. You should know that and should know I know that. But I was never gonna D1 STINK regardless.
-
If we can have disambiguated messages, we can probably work out the size of the Elim team at the very least, and add one more for the world in which they're smart enough to hold one back. (They won't know this so it's a risk, hence I think +1 works fine in terms of error margins.) I don't think we can c/p exact message text so I'll just ask you if the threatening one names any planets, and if so, if the planets appear in the Star Wars Original Trilogy only. @DrakeMarshall - How much of the messages can be shared btw? I only received one, for the record. I think text/phrasing might give us some ability to ID the sender too - Twei used that in MR2 (stop, I will accept no complaints about why I remember such a long ago game ) to identify Jo and someone else (I kinda wanna say Tulir) via linguistic analysis and the Village curbstomped the Elims with zero losses. Won't lean too hard on it but it's a possible avenue. I certainly used it to ID one Elim in MR4.
-
The write-up says STINK was hit by the kill. They could've deliberately voted STINK regardless but in general, unless they felt there was a decent chance STINK was the Head Honcho (i.e. really wanted STINK dead), there's no tactical value in overlapping and having the same guy potentially hit by your kill and your vote. That's why I think there's a chance to do some light pool analysis here. This means: Say we have six Rebels (IDK, just working with this number off vibes/similar reasons to TUH last cycle.) In our most "screw the Rebels in particular" unlucky world, this is what happens: 1. The exe has a 1/3 chance of hitting STINK. It has a 2/3 chance of hitting someone else and does. 2. Then, STINK's name is only submitted once for the kill. (STINK would never vote STINK.) 1/6 chance that Drake RNG picks STINK. 3. STINK is an Elim so Drake rerolls. Another 1/6 chance that STINK is picked and somehow, we still get the STINK pick. ( @DrakeMarshall btw pls correct me if I'm wrong.) [Note there is a slight modulation if Fura is an Elim due to Fura being inactive, meaning we're looking at 1/5 chances here. Either way I don't think there is a point in pursuing this for now until/unless Fura returns or is replaced.] This is why I'm kinda low-key thinking that probably more than one Rebel (but not STINK) wrote his name in. I would expect it to be hard to get high convergence, but hitting that one name both times is rough even if it's possible.
-
Sorry, having difficulty locking in because I got news my GOAT might be returning but his booking has sucked this year so I'm feeling both excitement and trepidation and I can't seem to think today. Also people hate on him, alas Anyway, thoughts off the cuff: -Good job KSauce. Unfortunate we voted you but the fact we haven't lost indicated KSauce did the most important thing correct. -Could be a series of unlucky rolls on the Elims part but I'm guessing more than one member submitted STINK. That's interesting because normally you'd expect a preference not to overlap with the exe for maximum coverage. I can see two worlds here: A. They really thought STINK was the Head Honcho (not sure, STINK has a tendency to mass PM in many games though, IDK if he did it here, and without comms, IDK how they would know.) B. It gives us a cut-off time for the Elims putting in the kill target, i.e. they did it before STINK came into contention, or just weren't paying enough attention/didn't bother. (Normally you'd prefer to kill outside of it, unless they somehow really thought STINK was the Head Honcho, in which case spread/overlap concerns stop mattering.) In this world, we're looking at: NOTE: First set isn't clean, second set isn't completely tainted by Rebel scum. We're just taking a probabilistic look here. Going with Lotus for the moment. -Anyone received an anon message about [REDACTED]? I don't think it's that difficult to research it up but I'm curious about the range and if the message structure might imply anything about the person that sent it, give us something to work on where the Elims are concerned. (I'll say more later, I just don't want to play my hand first in case there's a way of catching liars/disambiguating.)
-
I played in a game where we were limited to, I want to say, 5 or fewer posts per cycle with a strict character limit in each post. (Don't recall the exact number but it was dire.) There's just no back-and-forth to be had under those conditions so a lot of people had to go off early vibes and put more stock in them. I'm still surprised we found one Elim that way.
