Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I would also like to know how Liranil being NK'd means that Archer is definitely an elim mistborn. I'm not following the logic there.

[Quintessential she/her]

18 minutes ago, Biplet said:

How so?

11 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I would also like to know how Liranil being NK'd means that Archer is definitely an elim mistborn. I'm not following the logic there.

First of all it was a joke  Second of all, because Archer was the only person voting on Striker at the end of last cycle, and then Striker was targeted with an NK, and now Archer is the only person voting Liranil--so I just thought it'd be funny if she- yeah, you get it : P

Edited March 20, 2021 by Quintessential

[Gears]

Apologies for my extended absence. I had a robotics tournament and a mathematics competition and homework and a robotics tournament tomorrow and just general business. I'll be back in full swing soon. 

We can assume that Archer and Striker are dead. They are confirmed to be not a member of the faction that killed them, so they will have no urge to kill someone else, and they obviously have/had a role. Let them die. They are dead in a few cycles, even if they get Lurched a bit. The Lurchers have to alternate, so unless two Lurchers working without communications happen to alternate perfectly, they will die quite soon. No need to X them. Do not protect them if you are village. Their continued survival under the premise of no village protectors would confirm elim!Lurchers. There is the chance that one of them is Vin, but even then, protecting them is not sustainable. We would need public Lurchers and the public Vin claim for that, which would mean that both elim factions would be gunning for that person and the village Lurchers could easily be eviserated. The public Vin claim would also be an excellent way for an elim!Mistborn to claim and only get faction-killed by one group and thus only need one Lurcher since their group would know that they are lying while also gaining the trust and frantic mania of the village [reminiscent of MR46!Gears claiming TLR and instantly pocketing the thread]. The only way to stop that would be for the real Vin to counterclaim, which leads to the problems of public Lurchers needed as well. 

I will stipulate that X-ing Archer is fine, and if we want to ensure their death soon, that would probably be better because you can't Lurch the X. Worst possible case, Archer dies C4 if we don't X them and that faction X's them every time [Lurched C1, extra life C2, Lurched C3, killed C4. In this hypothetical scenario, they are almost certainly Mistborn with a Lurcher friend that protected them C1, if the Lurcher instead didn't protect them they die C3, if no Lurcher, they die C2]. Given the lack of quality X targets before us, I would lean towards X-ing Archer because the reasoning for Liranil seems flimsy at best. If I find an actual X candidate that seems to have merit behind its existence, then I would prioritise that above Archer. Then again, the elims might not kill Archer because they know we want to kill them. As such, we need to unionise our opinions. Do we want to X Archer XOR let the elims kill them? Given the current VC, they are probably dead, but I would like to consider alternate candidates.

To elims: You want the other elim faction dead, just like us. You can help us help you by taking out the probable Mistborn that survived. The one you tried to kill. Kill them. Or kill Liranil. That works too. We want to find the suspicious people. You want to find the suspicious people who aren't one of you. We can help each other. Kill the ones we suspect. Narrow the pool. Be our vigilantes. And we'll probably end up mix'ing a dozen times along the way, so do not fear being slaughtered by us. 

A post-by-post analysis of last cycle

1. TUO: Exists
2. Gears: Analysis, offers advice to elims. [I would like to point out that taking flak for that is actually helpful since it means that I'm less likely to be NK'ed in the early cycles. Many thanks.]
3. Mateo: Exists
4. Reading: Speculates 3-4 elims per team [Given the confirmation of only the Mistborn known, I'm leaning towards 3.]
5. Great and Mighty Game Master: No codes.
6. Taniel: How X? [A thought: Taniel isn't new. They played a game before. They voted on people before. Paranoia says it's playing up newness for credit, but without people telling them to do so, would they think of it themself?]
7. Reading: Gneorndin not canon.
8. Ash: Balance.
9. Archer: Analysis, assumes role madness [the reasoning for the assumption is flawed, but it's an acceptable assumption], speculating about elim strategies bad, don't lie [people have already commented], thinks Gears signalling [given that I was genuinely advising the elims, this is not a bad thought, but I do that a lot], votes Gears
10. Matrim: Misunderstandings, guesses 4
11. Pizza: Exists
12. Reading: Corrections
13. Matrim: Concur
14. Illwei: Changing style, notes that village will have a hard time linking elims to each other [especially since there are 2 unrelated factions to kill], don't control thread [while this [More specifically, don't assume people will do what you think they will.]
15. Liranil: Exists
16. Gears: Responses, elim honesty, 
17. Lumi: Elims have hard time too, might NK own [impossible, though could NK other faction], a flawed point about Archer's point [they said they thought it was elim signalling, id est elim!Gears signalling elim friends, which doesn't work if it was pre-written. That was my point.]
18. Ash: RP
19. Weill: Elim lack of coordination a help [This does change the elim strategy significantly. Envision each elim as a deep-cover agent. The goal is survival of the self [and potentially the important operative] because they cannot know anyone else. The goal is to live, and as such, the goal is to walk the line between suspicious and trusted to avoid the X and the NK of the other team. It's not especially difficult to survive that. You just have to seem like easy mix fodder but not actually get X-ed. While the elims as a unit will have a more difficult time acting and killing the optimal targets, as an individual, each elim will find it easier to survive because they don't have to risk themselves to save other people. The elim!Mistborn have the easiest time because they can prioritise saving themself above all else while the standard elims will have to save the Mistborn should they get in trouble.], don't chat about how elims find each other, votes Striker
20. Archer: Responses, don't lie [I think the problem is your phrasing. "It's safe to assume that anyone who lies is an elim." That's simply not true. Not lying is indeed helpful, but there are cases where a villager would lie.], possibly know all members, joking about plan [that was my plan...], retracts Gears, vote manip counts [that was about the elim vote count, not the village one], elims can't coordinate [see post 19 commentary, as a unit they are hampered but as a secret agent, they are helped because they can't be compromised]
21. Quinn: Elim advantage is TMI [Not necessarily. The elim advantage is that it's easier to fail than to succeed.]
22. Illwei: Won't need mix's [Conventional elim warfare is rendered unusable.]
23. STINK: Joke votes Illwei
24. Taniel: Exists, votes Liranil [for no reason]
25. Quinn: Votes STINK [for no reason]
26. STINK: Banter
27. Mateo: Reasoning? Boycotting meta.
28. Archer: Suspicious of Books for following the thread at the same time when TJ clarified something. Votes Quinn for agreeing [terrible reasoning, also not the definition of pocketing]
29. Ash: Fake-claiming isn't necessarily bad, strong roles try to hide, claiming Thug is strange.
30. Pizza: Yes.
31. Bip: Confusion
32. Wei: Confused
33. Bip: Sad cowboy
34. Illwei: Emoji
35. Striker: Alive, Vin don't claim, lying is good, don't out Vin [you either out one of the two paramount elims or the paramount villager. Hard to choose between that.]
36. Wei: Claim if being X-ed.
37. Bip: Cowboy
38. Striker: Always wrong somehow
39. Matrim: Archer's reasoning bad [concur]
40. Illwei: Trust Striker = Evil Striker
41. Mateo: Boycott meta
42. Ash: Should discuss what to do post-Mistborn discovery
43. Striker: Seeker shouldn't reveal Mistborn, avoid X-ing conf!Mistborn, consider them dead [true]
44. Mateo: Leave them be.
45. Ash: Misspeak? Once Mistborn dead can predict more easily
46. Great and Mighty Game Master: Clarifications
47. Lumi: Retracts STINK, votes Archer for "feeling off" [I don't see this, but valid]
48. Pizza: Self-votes, retracts
49. Reading: Don't double post
50. TJ: Don't
51. Pizza: OK
52. STINK: Bait
53. Tominel: Wanted reactions [never a good reason]
54. Mateo: Q kind of strange
55. Quinn: Wasn't a response
56. Striker: Typos, once dead Vin X Mistborn
57. GM: Ventyl gone
58. Archer: 4 person teams viable, claiming Thug unprompted weird, thinks @ing wei was strange, scanners should be public [it depends on the philosophy of the Mistborn and how we react to them, and how important they are], retracts Quinn
59. TJ: Pinchhitter
60. Mat: Votes Archer, suspects distancing but wouldn't work
61. Lumi: Was OK with voting STINK [They got X-ed later, which I note but can't connect to anything]
62. Mateo: Ah.
63. Weill: Confusion
64. Mateo: Clarity
65. Wei: Terrible reads
66. STINK: Banter
67. Casper: Banter
68. Whysper: Exists
69. Taniel: Votes Whysper in greetings, scanner commentary, don't out Mistborn, votes Archer for opinions, votes Illwei
70. Order: Votes Archer because "other information" [What?]
71. Taniel: Votes Archer [They did say why, but more "logical"?]
72. Pizza: Self-votes
73. Order: Banter
74. Mat: Get un-bored
75. Pizza: OK
76. Tani: VC
77. Mat: Wrong
78. Reva: OK
79. Mateo: Clarity
80. Tanielle: Ah
81. Ash: Reasoning on Archer? [Taniel had reasoning in their post]
82. Matrim: Voting Archer for their thoughts about Vin [Valid for D1, but their opinion is legitimate]
83. Taniel: Opinion about scanners [It's a perfectly valid opinion]
84. TUO: Voting Archer? 
85. Mat: No
86. Order: Tries and fails to vote Archer [This is all the alarm bells.]
87. Q: Archer?
88. TJ: Clarity
89. Illwei: Theorises e!M!STINK with e!Q [wrong in post]
90. Q: Theorises e!M!STINK with e!Archer [wrong in post]
91. Weill: ?
92. Mateo: Confusion
93. Quinn: Archer's reaction to STINK vote [if that's the reasoning for Archer suspicion, then it's terrible because STINK is vil]
94. Weill: Thinks e!M!STINK, votes [terrible reasoning here, but it happened]
95. Taniel: Greetings
96. Lumi: Wasn't convince [true]
97. Wei: Q making no sense [concur]
98. Taniel: Concurs with Wei, votes Wei
99. Mat: Responses
100. Wei: Random nonsensical thoughts
101. TJ: Popcorn
102. Quinn: Votes Illwei for telling Q that she's nonsensical [but that point was genuinely strange], a bit of frustration [*head pat*], clarity
103. Mateo: Good points
104. Tani: Banter
105. Lumi: Only conclusions possible when e!M
106. Mat: So 'Maybe"
107. Taniel: Banter
108. Quinn: So easier for elims, good arguments NAI [true, but that's just always true, not a "this game" thing. Elims can have good arguments]
109. Mateo: So hard to get anywhere
110. Lumi: What analysis?
111. Wei: Trying to escape thunderdome, responds [good responses, and I know the last time I said that, evil!Wei, but still]
112. Taniel: Votes Archer, thinks sensical!Wei
113. Liranil: Votes STINK for the same reasons as Qwei [which are terrible reasons, to be fair]. Noted.
114. Ash: Thoughts, wants concurrence about Mistborn
115. Lumi: Responses, good points, frustration [Qwei arguments fairly standard]
116. Archer: Votes Striker, STINK hasn't done anything [true], wants to murder Striker, Gears, Books [I don't see why]
117. Quinn: Mistborn won't seem evil [I do think that the foundation of the reasoning on STINK was terrible, but I wasn't around for it, alas], Archer is if e!M!STINK
118. Weill: Irrationality is irrational, bad reasoning, theory revolves around M!STINK [The fact that I've agreeing with Wei in the Qwei battles recently is concerning. Both sides have good points, as always]
119. Striker: Votes STINK for the reasoning making sense [when it doesn't in my humble opinion, but alas my mind is most likely coloured with the thoughts of the futuresighted]
120. Lumi: Retracts Wei, still Qweing.
121. Wei: Votes
122. Ash: Need a bingo card
123. Striker: Banter
124. Wei: Banter
125. Ash: Banter
126. Q: Banter
127. Ash: Banter
128. Qui: Banter
129. Liranil: Banter
130. Mateo: Doesn't agree with Quinn, just notes response, don't out Mistborn right away, murder is good [concur]
131. Lumi: Outed Seeker is dead [true]
132. Wei: Banter
133. Q: Banter
134. Taniel: Banter
135. Tani: Departing
136. Mat: People voting STINK for what other people did? [I know, it's strange]
137. Wei: Agrees, but vote doesn't change
138. Liranil: Want other target?
139. Matrim: Yes, current vote
140. Liranil: Who?
141. Whysper: Hello, sharing info good
142. Pizza: Confused
143. Whysper: Interrogation
144. Pizza: First game, pineapple
145. Bip: Votes STINK because confused [I don't like this reasoning]
146. Reading: STINK thing strange
147. Pizza: Pineapple
148. Striker: VC, asks for votes
149. Bip: Wants to vote [you don't have to vote D1. I don't usually vote D1]
150. Reading: Going to investigate Archer
151. Striker: Ties kill random, manip
152. TJ: No vote manip
153. Mat: STINK train bad, no manip, bip odd but one post
154. Ash: Vote manip different, reasoning on STINK?
155. Bip: Scientia potentia est
156. Lumi: Confused, no one thinks STINK is suspicious, votes Liranil
157. STINK: Confused, no defense for no offense
158. Ruby: Not voting
159. Whysper: Votes Gears for helping elims [valid]
160. Reading: Votes Liranil for piggybacking on reasoning, STINK train weird
161. Mateo: Elims might be hesitant [no, can be bold since trying to catch elims too. Just fewer elims]
162. Ash: Has time...
163. Reading: Can't understand Liranil vote
164. Lumi: Villagers train too
165. Books: Votes Gears for helping elims
166. TJ: VC
167. Weill: Typos
168. Quinn: Typos...
169. Matrim: Error of timezones
170. Q: No
171. Mat: Oh
172. Reading: No
173. Liranil: Voted for STINK so theories confirmed and no guessing later
174. Mat: Infokill for not doing anything ridiculous [concur]
175. Quinn: Mostly hypothetical
176. Ash: Finds interesting that people find others suspicious but link to e!M!STINK. Kill Archer
177. Q: Vote Liranil!
178. Liranil: Willing to vote anyone but self
179. Illwei: Then vote.
180. Ash: Votes Archer, doesn't know why.

Alt candidates from C1: Archer for thinking Seekers should out Mistborn, Liranil for piggybacking on reasoning. I note Lumi but do not find them suspicious. I vaguely remember noting Books but I don't remember why. Archer is an acceptable X. I would accept Liranil if only to escape the Archer/Quinn/STINK trio. I do think that the reasons on Archer amount to little, but the reasons on anyone else are also few and far between. I have been ninja'd dozens of times while writing this. If you want me to address something, just yell at me and I'll hopefully respond. 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Gears

[Biplet she/her]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

First of all it was a joke  Second of all, because Archer was the only person voting on Striker at the end of last cycle, and then Striker was targeted with an NK, and now Archer is the only person voting Liranil--so I just thought it'd be funny if she- yeah, you get it : P

OHHHHHHH okay now that makes sense lmao

[Liranil she/her]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Elim!Mistborn!Archer links to Liranil, Illwei, TUO, maybe Tani? Probably not Quinn. Would explain hit on Striker, although exactly what that means for Striker I'm not sure.

Why does Elim!Mistborn!Archer link to me and TUO?

I am not a big fan of how 3 people jumped onto voting Gears just because... he wasn't talking? I mean I get poke votes but that felt more like an attempt at a don't-exe-Archer countertrain. For that reason, Experience Archer.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

First of all it was a joke  Second of all, because Archer was the only person voting on Striker at the end of last cycle, and then Striker was targeted with an NK, and now Archer is the only person voting Liranil--so I just thought it'd be funny if she- yeah, you get it : P

Ah okay I see now. I was not understanding what the joke was about before.

Also, @Gears I appreciate the summary thing-y, but you probably should spoiler it? Though I guess I did actually read some of it since it wasn't spoilered....

[Biplet she/her]

I think that the info we could get from Archer's exe is pretty valuable, but they're also probably already a dead man walking. But I'm not liking any of the other trains. I'm not following the logic on Liranil, and I think voting for Gears just because he was busy/inactive seems counterproductive. Irl comes first.

Archer. Tentatively. This could easily change before rollover, but I want to get a vote out now. Quinn is right, it's pretty late into the cycle.

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Gears said:

reminiscent of MR46!Gears claiming TLR and instantly pocketing the thread

Realistically speaking, that only worked because you pocketed me and I basically am the thread

Also, Gears since the sole reason I was voting him before was that he hadn't posted  (I do recognize that his analysis wasn't great for the village but he always gives advice to both sides in those analyses, so it's NAI for him, and I don't think it's even near being worth a retribution-vote)

And Archer because honestly, there's no one else to vote for here, and exeing him will give us some amount of information anyway. (was ninja'd by both Bip and Liranil doing the same : P)

[Biplet she/her]

Some rapid fire changes happening just now. Here's a VC!

Archer (8): Striker, TUO, Whysper, Pizza, Matrim, Liranil, Bip, Quinn
Liranil (1): Archer
Gears (2): Illwei, Ash

11/17 players voted doin better gamers

[Liranil she/her]

Lollll now the lack of resistance is making me nervous...

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Liranil said:

Lollll now the lack of resistance is making me nervous...

eh, realistically in this game it shouldn't : P if he's a normal elim there's not actually anyone out there that knows that, and if he's e-Mistborn only 2 or 3 people do.

[---]

15 minutes ago, Liranil said:

but that felt more like an attempt at a don't-exe-Archer countertrain.

Heyo

for me it was, because I still think that we shouldn't kill Striker or Archer, because if the Elim team wanted them dead, then why are we killing them?

EDIT:

2 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Lollll now the lack of resistance is making me nervous...

Hey wait that's my line

Edited March 20, 2021 by Illwei

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, Liranil said:

Lollll now the lack of resistance is making me nervous...

It could just be that the elims are all of the non-voters and are just letting us duke it out. Or there's an elim or two or more voting on Archer and will move away if/when they get the opportunity. 

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

for me it was, because I still think that we shouldn't kill Striker or Archer, because if the Elim team wanted them dead, then why are we killing them?

...why do all of your posts talk like there's only one elim team? Like, the phrasing "the elim team" is super... idk, that feels off to me. Anyway, we're killing them because there are two elim teams, who want each other dead just as much was we want them dead. (edit: sorry, I meant to add more to this and Striker's post distracted me. Therefore, the fact that Striker and Archer were NKd doesn't mean they're not elim, and it's not even a tinfoily "what if it was a WGG" in this game. I don't think we would be voting Archer off, except that enough people were sus of him anyway for it to make sense to them that he might be e-Mistborn)

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

It could just be that the elims are all of the non-voters and are just letting us duke it out. Or there's an elim or two or more voting on Archer and will move away if/when they get the opportunity. 

...or the thing I said.

Guyyyssss when looking at votes and thinking about voting, remember that the elims don't know each other's identities, and that there are two different teams : P

Edited March 20, 2021 by Quintessential

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

...or the thing I said.

Guyyyssss when looking at votes and thinking about voting, remember that the elims don't know each other's identities, and that there are two different teams : P

To be fair, my thing was supposed to be a joke and you posted it right as I was trying to post mine.

[Biplet she/her]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

Guyyyssss when looking at votes and thinking about voting, remember that the elims don't know each other's identities, and that there are two different teams : P

This is something I keep forgetting lol

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Biplet said:

This is something I keep forgetting lol

My notes doc has a key at the top where I have different colors for the two different elim teams (for whenever an elim flips) so I have that visual reminder every time I open it XD which is probably part of why I remember.

[Biplet she/her]

Just now, Quintessential said:

My notes doc

O.o notes doc??

Shoot maybe I should be working harder in these games aksdjfhskd

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Biplet said:

Shoot maybe I should be working harder in these games aksdjfhskd

Eh, I wouldn't worry about it  I didn't bother up until MR48 (my... 10th? game edit: no it was my 9th game lol but still)--and then it was only 'cause I actually had stuff I wanted to write down and keep track of. 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Quintessential

[---]

2 minutes ago, Biplet said:

O.o notes doc??

Shoot maybe I should be working harder in these games aksdjfhskd

I don't have a notes doc, I have my GMPM

not sorry TJ

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

I don't have a notes doc, I have my GMPM

not sorry TJ

Have you hit 4 pages yet? We've just been having a conversation in my GM PM.

Also, @Biplet I know you are sitting right next to me, but you definitely don't need to worry about taking notes at all. I hardly ever do.

[Liranil she/her]

7 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

eh, realistically in this game it shouldn't : P if he's a normal elim there's not actually anyone out there that knows that, and if he's e-Mistborn only 2 or 3 people do.

5 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

It could just be that the elims are all of the non-voters and are just letting us duke it out. Or there's an elim or two or more voting on Archer and will move away if/when they get the opportunity. 

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Guyyyssss when looking at votes and thinking about voting, remember that the elims don't know each other's identities, and that there are two different teams : P

All good points.  I'm sure there's also a chance that Archer is an elim Thug.

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Also, @Biplet I know you are sitting right next to me, but you definitely don't need to worry about taking notes at all. I hardly ever do.

that might be because you always die so early tho

[---]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Have you hit 4 pages yet? We've just been having a conversation in my GM PM.

Alas, I'm at a lowly 7. Most of it is talking though. Well. Depending on your definition of talking. :P.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, Quintessential said:

that might be because you always die so early tho

......