Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[---]

Heyo quick question to yalls

has anyone been tracking votes this game because I know I haven't

and if anyone has would they like to post that info

otherwise

*looks at long thread*

I can...go through it... ;-;.

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Heyo quick question to yalls

has anyone been tracking votes this game because I know I haven't

and if anyone has would they like to post that info

otherwise

*looks at long thread*

I can...go through it... ;-;.

I have color-coded final counts :P. (Pre-manip)

If they're bold they're confirmed village- disclaimer being I bolded myself  

D1:

Spoiler

• Shard of Reading (4): Araris Valerian, Fifth Scholar, Illwei, Flyingbooks
• StrikerEZ (2): The Young Pyromancer, Matrim's Dice
• _Stick_ (1): Experience
• Illwei (1): Mailliw73
• Quintessential (1): Dannex
• Flyingbooks (9): Gears, Quintessential, Ventyl, _Stick_, StrikerEZ, Young Bard, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity, TJ Shade

Of note: Striker train was all village. I don't remember if the Reading train was in response to Books or if it was in response to Striker, but it likely doesn't matter too much as Books was village. I think there are likely some elims on Books. I'd be shocked if there weren't.

D2:

Spoiler

• StrikerEZ (9): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_
• The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Illwei, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity, TJ Shade
• Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
• Mailliw73 (1): Experience
• The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer

Of note: Leading two trains both being village. Wouldn't be surprised though if the Pyro one had more than one elim on it. Also worthy of note: How many unconfirmeds there are on Striker's train. Though this being only a cycle later that's not too surprising.

Conclusions: My main suspects are probably Stick and Araris after looking at this and remember my gut impressions of the game so far. Following that probably is Maill, though if Stick/Maill are evil they're doing a good job staying distanced. 

Edit: And Ash, to a lesser extent.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Heyo quick question to yalls

has anyone been tracking votes this game because I know I haven't

and if anyone has would they like to post that info

otherwise

*looks at long thread*

I can...go through it... ;-;.

I have every vote and retraction recorded from each cycle (which I'll be posting with my analysis later once I have the time to sit down and write it). Basically I'll do what Matrim just did but... more  

[Quivil she/her]

More distrust in the trust group! Yay!

Mailliw73

[Mailliw73 he/him]

i wanted to get an updated version of this out while I'm thinking over what happened this morning. This is like Bard's but updated with new deaths. I'm also going to take my reads out of it, sinc apparently XP and Pyro were village... 

Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. 

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

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With that pointed out, I think straight off the Books vote, and mostly the Striker vote, the elims are just letting us go wild with our random suspicions. I would bargain that the elims aren't pushing or meddling much in the voting results. If that's the case, I would imagine they'd be the later votes on Books (Ash, Devo, TJ) and/or people voting on others so as to not be on the train at all (continuing my suspicions of Pyro, XP, and Illwei, but also maybe Dannex, Mat, Araris?). 

^These were my thoughts yesterday when evaluating. Clearly Pyro and XP were wrong suspicions, but even then, I can't shake Illwei completely. I'll leave off on her for the sake of this post at least though. Like Mat, I think at least one of (Ash, Devo, TJ) are likely to be evil from that Books exe. I'm not sure that Dannex, Mat, Araris really have much from this day's vote that actually makes me suspect them, especially the more that we see the people not on the two main exe candidates flip village. 

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
                     Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_

The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

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Looking at D2, I would say that the elims are most likely to be clinching the vote on Striker (Pyro, Windrunner), potentially Bip or Fifth (meaning my village reads on them are very wrong, and I find the next option more likely) if they wanted to get the ball rolling there. Any or all of Araris, Devo, Illwei trying to distance by going for Pyro would be my second option.

I think I have to reevaluate my thoughts entirely on the Striker train. I may have blinded myself by putting reads on there, because Quinn and Tani, along with Mat, end up in the crucial spot there for clinching that exe. Wait, I realized as typing this that the order of the votes that I copied is different from what Mat has... Storms, have I been using the wrong order? I added Mat's order in the second line. If Mat's order is correct, then Quinn, Fifth, Tani, and Bip would be in the crucial spot, with Stick being of note. Huh. That changes things to have it in this order. Tani revealing herself in thread as mistborn doesn't seem like an elim ploy, but maybe that's the point? Idk, not willing to commit to that yet. I'd put Quinn higher on the suspicion list than Tani. Bip and Fifth showing up in an interesting spot is new though...

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Comparing the two, Ash, Devo x2, TJ, Pyro x2, XP, Illwei x2, Dannex, Mat, Araris x2, Windrunner show up in suspicious places to me. That puts Illwei, Pyro, Araris, and Devo in suspicious places twice. I didn't expect to see Araris or Devo multiple times if at all, so that's surprised me as I've analyzed this. Maybe I'll need to look into those two more. So solely off those voting placements, I'd rank suspicions as Illwei, Pyro, Devo, Araris, XP, TJ, Windrunner, Ash, Dannex, Mat. I might be biased in placing Pyro and Illwei at the top of the list, but my other suspicions only add to their suspicious placement. 

Taking my final takeaways from yesterday, I would say that I would take Araris, Dannex, Windrunner, and Mat off the list of interesting spots, adding Quinn and Fifth and Bip there instead. 

New suspicions order just from this: Illwei, Devo, Quinn, Ash, Fifth, TJ, Bip. With Tani maybe after them. 

I'll post more later with reactions to this thread so far, but wanted to get this up so I could think on it before I do that. 

[Quintessential she/her]

I'm currently working on a large analysis post in the same vein as Maill's. I may end up coming to the same conclusions, but if so they were reached independently and mostly before I even read his (I just have to finish up the last... section and a half or so of my post, which I won't have time to do until tomorrow).

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

Bard voted Books at the end of the cycle, btw. I had the same mistake in my VC though for some reason, and only caught it because I'm looking at vote progression in the post I'm working on : P

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

I think I have to reevaluate my thoughts entirely on the Striker train. I may have blinded myself by putting reads on there, because Quinn and Tani, along with Mat, end up in the crucial spot there for clinching that exe. Wait, I realized as typing this that the order of the votes that I copied is different from what Mat has... Storms, have I been using the wrong order? I added Mat's order in the second line. If Mat's order is correct, then Quinn, Fifth, Tani, and Bip would be in the crucial spot, with Stick being of note. Huh. That changes things to have it in this order. Tani revealing herself in thread as mistborn doesn't seem like an elim ploy, but maybe that's the point? Idk, not willing to commit to that yet. I'd put Quinn higher on the suspicion list than Tani. Bip and Fifth showing up in an interesting spot is new though...

*cough* I think. You may. Be forgetting something. Maill. You can't rightly read mine, Tani's, and honestly even Stick's placement on the Striker train, any more than I can find it interesting that you were on it from the start and never moved. Because. Y'know. Our group PM agreed to exe Striker. That's why I had a vote on Striker towards the end. Same with Tani and Stick.

And yes, I expressed suspicion of Stick in our PM because of the placement of her vote. Having looked at the vote progression some more, I'm still suspicious of her, but that particular thing is basically NAI because we all agreed on it. It was a joint move, as much your idea as ours.

Again, sorry I can't post my full analysis tonight but my family and I are watching a movie so I don't have the time : P. First thing tomorrow, I promise!

[---]

Just finished an ISO of Maill and all I have is confusion

some things might make sense

a lot of things feel like they don't

but @Mailliw73 are your reasons still D1 reasons? for me being an Elim?

Every cycle there I am at the top of your suspicions, but I don't see any more reasons. Last cycle there was the one about my distancing from Pyro. I guess that's something.

But every cycle you keep me up there, and yet don't vote on me.

and every cycle I've seen someone say "Maill is gonna be sus if Illwei flips vil"

and it feels to me that you've gotten yourself stuck here in this read on me. Like an Elim who has felt like you have to keep this read or look suspicious, but at the same time don't want to actually kill me, because you know you'd be next.

My notes from Maill's ISO, Hopefully the formatting is okay because I typed this up in notepad lol. Wasn't gonna post this because it's a lotta nothing and I wasn't going to post anything until I finished typing up the other stuff but I have this now and probably won't be back for a bit, so /shrug :P.

but if you wanna read it here it is

Spoiler

Post 1 -

 

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Fair enough. Like I said, I’ll look over votes again later on.

Ah and on Coinshots killing. I think Striker’s suggestion is a valid way to play that role. My personal opinion is that kills should be used but in moderation. Use them as you have a genuine suspicion, not just because you want to use it.     

 

 - Valid thoughts on how coinshot kills can be used
 - Personal opinion from me:it's easier than not to talk about technical things as an Elim. Appear helpful without giving new thoughts. IIOA in a way.

Post 2 -

 

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Going back and looking at the voting patterns so far (I know it's day one and probably random, but still), I think I'm going to go with Illwei for now. Maybe it's a more typical Illwei thing to do, but the vote on Quinn then the retraction and vote on Stick was...interesting to me as well as her back and forth with Quinn.

We also haven't seen @Fifth Scholar @Ventyl or @Burnt Spaghetti and I know they're usually more active. I'd consider a poke vote on them later on potentially as well. And @Daisy and @Tani, I know it's your first game, but any thoughts so far?

 

 - Hm. People kept talking about this being Quinn-Only reasoning, but I honestly don't see why? I think the vote on me is strange, and I was definitely the easy target there.
 - I don't like how he votes me "seriously" ? and then goes on to tag a number of people who haven't talked (something #3 on Illwei's suspicion list when he hasn't done much yet himself?) and then says "may poke vote them later" which is just kinda strange to me. He's backtracking on his seemingly real read of me, and giving him an excuse to potentially end the cycle on a "poke vote" and avoid being on a top wagon?

Post 3 -

 

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Lol, I'm talking to at least half the players in PMs, it's kinda what I do. But on the other point, I honestly didn't go back and see what everyone's reasonings were for voting, I just looked at the votes and retractions themselves, thought Illwei's was strangest and placed my vote. I didn't realize yours was also on her until I checked your vote count right before I posted.  

 - Claims to not have seen Quinn's vote on Illwei?
 - Idk not much here.

Post 4 -

 

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Hey, Elandera, I know you're busy, but I'm curious if you've got a bit more to share. I love your analysis, so I'd love to see anything you've got.

I guess, as I type that, I realize that i haven't posted any analysis yet really either, but that's me. PM me if I haven't already PMd you and we can talk more about my thoughts.

Regarding Tani, I really don't think it's that big of a deal... They're new to SE, of course they don't know the meta here about D1 lynches or about voting. I think they deserve some time to figure out what's going on and if they have a more chaotic playstyle, well, the more the merrier! None of what they've said has set off any alarms for me.

Illwei, I think I've learned via PMs that your style is just more chaotic than I expected, which is why that vote-retract-vote was weird to me. So now that my expectations are adjusted, I don't think that is worth exeing you for, since I guess it's just kinda your style. I am going to leave my vote as is for now though because between Quinn and Illwei, I'm not opposed to one of them being the exe target and I think Quinn's gotten that a bunch recently from what I hear.

 

 - I thought originally that this was him defending his vote on me, but what it seems to be is
1) someone tells him that I have a chaotic playstyle
2) He thinks that excuses my voting
3) He leaves his vote on me, because even though he thinks that the voting is normal for me, he still is fine with me dying? when that was the point against me in the first place?  
 - Has heard that Quinn gets killed early a lot. doesn't want to kill her. Didn't care about killing me N2 when I said that I die early a lot ;-;;;

Post 5 -

 

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 Why not, I guess? Smoker isn’t a detrimental one to claim, even if he’s honest. If anything, it’s only advantageous if he’s an elim but even then he just committed to turning it off. I don’t think that’s a bad move at all.

and about my vote on Illwei, I don’t have a better idea right now. The tension between Quinn and Illwei is interesting (maybe something normal, idk?) and I think there might be something there. I just meant that her voting pattern alone is no longer the sole reason my vote is there. I think the voting she’s doing is more inline with her chaotic nature but the arguments with Quinn haven’t been so there’s a disconnect there that I’m interested in.  

 

 - Comes back to defending his vote on me, and this time has changed reasoning yet again. It feels like someone trying to not look suspicious by jumping wagons, so trying to find justification that isn't there.
 - Bolded part (and following): this counters what he said in the last post, no?

Post 6 -

 

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Fair but that’s no worse than him smoking himself.

And if the elims are banking that hard in their vote manip, they’re probably wrecked already.  

 

 - Assumes Village!Ventyl

Post 7 -

 

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 Uh, okay... Apparently I need to explain my reasoning better than I have so at least your defense is based off of what i'm actually thinking.

So. Illwei votes on Quinn, then retracts the vote and votes on Stick in the same post. I think that's weird, so I decide to put my vote on Illwei. I later learn through multiple PM conversations about Illwei that apparently that kind of voting is fairly normal for her, so now that voting reason is NAI to me. At the same time, the amount of tension and dialogue between Illwei and Quinn leads me to believe that one of the two dying would lead us to the most information and I'm leaning towards Illwei on that still if I had to pick. In addition, the more I look at the way Illwei has voted and the way Illwei has replied to Quinn, they feel like two different people. Like one is elim and the other is elim trying to play it off like village. So I'm leaving my vote.  

 

 - Has now collected all of his reasonings into one post. It still feels like an Elim trying to justify an (early) suspicion, rather than someone actually trying to figure out who's suspicious.
 - Also could be a villager Tunneling (reminder to illwei to look through Quinn's ISO. though. I don't. Want. To. At. All.)

Post 8 -

 

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Okay? Just cause we have a good PM going and I complimented your name doesn't mean I'm pocketing you. I complimented Gears's RP to start our PM, so idk how that's pocketing, but okay...

 - Makes it known he has a PM with gears. a strange specific. Possibly Maill/Gears E/E
 - This does feel a bit like Shade on Quinn a tad bit.

Post 9 -

 

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Is Reading new? I thought they were, but I'm obviously out of the loop.

Yeah, why does Quinn have the asterisk?

 

 - Nitpicky!Illwei notices that he thinks reading is new, but didn't tag him when he tagged the new people :P.

Post 10 -

 

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Fair, I'll be honest, I only skim Fifth's. At least in this game but that's because there's a new page like every time I reload this. Like 4 or 5 posts each from Illwei and Quinn every time.

 - I was definitely not posting as much as Quinn so this is Nitpicky!Illwei back to say that this shows focus on me for some reason.

Post 11 -

 

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 I mean yes my reasoning shifted, you posted more, so it would be more strange if my reasoning stayed the same. Maybe I am kinda tunneling though, idk. I'll see if I cant put forward a number 2 suspicion.

Also what did I do to shade Quinn?

And Mat, I think you're the fourth(?) person to day that your gut is pointing at me, so idk. Maybe I'm just really old and my playstyle is outdated. Idk what's causing all this gut stuff. Maybe it's lactose?

 

 - Why would it be weird if your reasoning stayed the same?

Post 12 -

 

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 Yeah, I just think the amount of intensity or aggressiveness (even if coming from a good place or in a friendship) is increased from when I was active. Like Quinn and Illwei's back and forth is further than it would have gone a few years ago when I was around.

Edit: So I probably come off to Quinn as very nice, when in my head that's the expectation still.  

 

 - :|.

Post - 12ish?

 

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Does anyone have a vote count from the end of the cycle? I’m seeing 4 votes missing, not 3?

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Looks like Devo is back on Books but there’s still a missing vote there.

 - Puts attention on the vote manip. If E!Maill I feel like the vote manip is meaningless. Was the Manip meaningless to begin with? idk.

Post - 13ish?

 

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More to come tomorrow. Sunday’s are harder for me to have in depth stuff, sorry.

I think out of the Books lynch that the Ventyl, Stick, Striker trio is where the elim is most likely to be

 

 - Two confirmed villagers and Stick. Thinks that one of these is an Elim.

post - 14???

 

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Alright, I don't have as much time today as I have had so far because I do have homework that needs to get done, so I don't know that this day turn is going to have as much as normal, but then again, I don't know that I frequently do have a ton of indepth thread comments.

Anyways, looking back on the voting from last turn, I had said that I found Ventyl, Stick, and Striker to be the most suspicious. i just went back to look at the actual voting times and other votes on at the time of the vote, since data doesn't lie, but emotional appeals might. Ventyl is clearly village, since he's dead, RIP. Stick brought it to 3-3-4 between Illwei, Reading, and Books. I don't really see that as alignment indicative yet. Striker though takes the pressure off Illwei and switches to Books and then Illwei switches off herself to Reading later on. I think I'm beginning to see an Illwei-Striker evil pairing here. I think Reading is likely to be good as well and just an unfortunate second lynch option. I would also add Bard maybe lower down the list of potential elims since his vote really took it past a tie.

On the Reading votes, I think aside from Illwei, it's likely to be all villagers. Araris was going for a less active player, Fifth seems way too into this game to be evil to me and joined Araris's ideas. I'd put maybe Matrim or Pyro on the elim team as well, voting for Striker for distancing.

So right now, I'm thinking Illwei, Striker, Matrim, Pyro, Bard in that order for my suspicions.

 

 - tries to clear everyone on the Reading train besides me.  Don't know where that would go after my flip, but I assume...Nowhere. :P. Probably wouldn't be revisited.
 - Ahhhhh there's the "early bus" lmao.
 - this is where he changes his suspicion on Stick, wondering if that has anything to do with the Trust PM.

uhhhhh???

 

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So it’s 4-1-1-1 from what I can tell but I’m on mobile so who knows right now.

I was waiting to place a vote for sure until I saw some more opinions on Striker, Illwei, or Mat/Pyro. Now there’s been quite an increase in Striker and I’m uneasy voting for him completely in confidence. I’m going to put my vote there for now, but I will note that it’s subject to change. Illwei is still not forgotten and is probably just a smidge higher on my suspicions.

 

 - Again, would think that Striker - Maill was E/E if striker didn't flip Village AHFDSFJ
 - Leaves room to switch his vote to me?

Idek anymore ok

 

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Like I've said at least four times between PMs and the thread, I think this is exactly what's happening and I don't think we want to discourage that because that's what new players bring to the games.  

 - Again, another thing that's easy for an Elim to say and something that people see as contributing/thoughts when it's not.

I give up

 

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Uh... I feel like this generation of newer players is used to very different types of PMs than I am... Our PM in the last 24 hours is literally me asking about your suspicions, you say you aren't sure, need to catch up, Quinn is a bit off, you had a bad gut read on me but now it's null. I said Quinn? You said Quinn and Illwei are hard to read and I said that they were definitely an interesting couple of players.

That's it. Is it pocketing because I am friendly in my responses? Is it because I agreed that Quinn and Illwei could be more difficult to read? Like, I agree on one thing and people think I'm pocketing? I'm just confused about how PMs are used now.  

 

 - I don't even know. :P.

some quote somewhere

 

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More later probably but my main reasoning on striker was a combination of the fact that others were suspicious of him and his placement of votes seemed prime for an elim. He also was going to yield more info than anyone aside maybe Quinn or Illwei.  

 - I'd like to hear what info Maill thinks that both me and Quinn would show.

I'm tired of naming these

 

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I’ve got some stuff to do now, later afternoons and evenings are easier for me. But yeah, I need to reevaluate my thoughts. Except on you. I don’t think striker’s flip changes anything there. Sorry.  

 - Was talking about an Illwei-Striker team, and I don't think that was elaborated on anywhere? I'd like to know where that came from, or if it was just "I think both of these people are Elims, therefore I can see an Illwei-Striker team"

are we at the end yet

 

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I would be okay with looking at TJ, but we haven't had many interactions. Gears, I would put at mild vil/null, Quinn: mild-moderate vil, TUO null, Pyro medium elim(see below), Fifth would be more mild village, Experience mild elim, Araris null, and Bip mild village. I'd agree with the rest of his reads. Stick is one that feels village to me, but has had interesting votes, so depending on how the night goes, I want to maybe look into her more.

Anyways, that was kinda writing stream of consciousness so I don't know how legible it is, but basically I think his reads can give us some direction to look. [1] Obviously confirmed villager isn't confirmed correct, but it's something. It's more than we got to go off from Books, Ventyl, or Randby.

My original reasoning for looking at Striker was his vote placement on Books D1. He and Ventyl obviously have been proven, so Stick was the next one on the list there. Stick and Pyro(who voted on Striker D1 and I had found that interesting) also ended up being the final votes on Striker this day. Pyro has been...interesting in our PM. He claimed a role that he knew he couldn't prove and then changed it when confronted. Aside from that, it hasn't been anything AI, just him being very insistent (and I disagree) that Tineyes are the main role aside from Seekers that Elims want to kill. So Pyro would be next up on my suspicions, then Stick I'd want to look at more, but all my personal interactions have been very village. And Experience is the next interesting one to me. Their claim of me pocketing them, maybe rioting and so losing their vote on me(?), and general evasiveness and vagueness has me suspicious. I also would like to look more into Araris, Devotary, and Elandera as more experienced players that haven't seemed to participate much. I've never been good at reading any of them, which is why I've typically stayed away from that territory for the first few days, [1]but assuming I survive the night, I'd want to look more into them as well.  

 

 - Doesn't have any read listed on TJ, has "read" on TUO?
 - Bold bit: Elim tell? :eyes: :P.
 - Comes back to finding Stick suspicious after retracting that last cycle. that progression feels more village than not. Thinking Stick is suspicious via thread, talking in PMs, getting village feel, coming back to votes after the other two have been disproven.
 - Second bold bit: What made him feel like he wasn't about to survive the night?

The scroll thing says we're almost there

 

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agree that Reading and particularly Illwei's flip would help us to better understand the Books train a lot better, since I am more confused now where the elims joined in, if at all.

Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. (Green-confirmed village, blue-moderate village, orange-moderate elim, yellow-lean elim, everyone else, if they're a mild read I didn't put any colors)

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

With that pointed out, I think straight off the Books vote, and mostly the Striker vote, the elims are just letting us go wild with our random suspicions. I would bargain that the elims aren't pushing or meddling much in the voting results. If that's the case, I would imagine they'd be the later votes on Books (Ash, Devo, TJ) and/or people voting on others so as to not be on the train at all (continuing my suspicions of Pyro, XP, and Illwei, but also maybe Dannex, Mat, Araris?).

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

Looking at D2, I would say that the elims are most likely to be clinching the vote on Striker (Pyro, Windrunner), potentially Bip or Fifth (meaning my village reads on them are very wrong, and I find the next option more likely) if they wanted to get the ball rolling there. [1]Any or all of Araris, Devo, Illwei trying to distance by going for Pyro would be my second option.

Comparing the two, Ash, Devo x2, TJ, Pyro x2, XP, Illwei x2, Dannex, Mat, Araris x2, Windrunner show up in suspicious places to me. That puts Illwei, Pyro, Araris, and Devo in suspicious places twice. I didn't expect to see Araris or Devo multiple times if at all, so that's surprised me as I've analyzed this. Maybe I'll need to look into those two more. So solely off those voting placements, I'd rank suspicions as Illwei, Pyro, Devo, Araris, XP, TJ, Windrunner, Ash, Dannex, Mat. I might be biased in placing Pyro and Illwei at the top of the list, but my other suspicions only add to their suspicious placement.

Hopefully some of that made sense to some of you...

On your last paragraph, I didn't feel the need to explicitly point out that that was obviously a read I didn't agree with

 

. - Bold 1: Who would we be trying to distance from? Pyro? Does this mean you're looking closer at Supreme, Bip, and Fifth then?
 - I'm still top suspicion despite those being D1 reasons and the newer reasons relying on Pyro being an Elim.

okay last one?

 

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 I'm pretty sure everyone has a permanent gut feeling against me in every game ever. I play with too random of a style for village gut reads, I think.

 - on one hand, tries to dismiss any "gut reads" against him - kinda Elimmy. Trying to invalidate those people's thoughts.
 - on the other hand, I do this. so. yeah. :P.

 

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Bard is an experienced enough player to not go around claiming a protection role to the world, so I don't think there's a way the Elims could have found out he was a Lurcher barring a Seeker, and while Elim Seekers are common nowadays, Bard would just be...a weird target for that kind of role. There are plenty of people more active in PMs and the thread to check out first. Hard to rule out with a death this early in the game, though.

Do you know how active Bard was in PMs? That doesn't necessarily correspond to post count. If he was low-PM that does mean he was less likely to have told people his role and make him a better Seeker target.

6 hours ago, Quintessential said:

*rubs eyes* okay great so I have to clarify more. According to Tani, if the Night's rollover hadn't been extended then Maill would be dead. And I meant that Tani had told you about the plan to kill you, not the XP thing.

Me and Maill came up with it in our own PM and then Maill proposed it to the group. That's why Tani thought it was his idea. It was in fact my idea to Coinshot you but I believe Maill was the one who floated you and Striker as potential targets? I don't recall exactly.

Illwei's not in the group. It's me, Maill, Tani, and Stick.

Did you and Maill know that Tani was a Mistborn when you were discussing kill targets, during D2 apparently if Striker was still alive at this point?

4 hours ago, Tani said:

I killed XP cuz Matrim didn't want me to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Mailliw and Matrim and the people in my pm group both suggested XP.

Matrim says I should've killed Maill and I kinda agree.

So Matrim was also in the PM group and not just you, Maill, Tani, and Stick. Did he suggest Maill or XP? Going back to point 1, would Bard have known that you were a Mistborn and possibly protected you?

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ, Bard

 

^These were my thoughts yesterday when evaluating. Clearly Pyro and XP were wrong suspicions, but even then, I can't shake Illwei completely. I'll leave off on her for the sake of this post at least though. Like Mat, I think at least one of (Ash, Devo, TJ) are likely to be evil from that Books exe. I'm not sure that Dannex, Mat, Araris really have much from this day's vote that actually makes me suspect them, especially the more that we see the people not on the two main exe candidates flip village. 

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
                     Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_

The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

 If Mat's order is correct, then Quinn, Fifth, Tani, and Bip would be in the crucial spot, with Stick being of note. Huh. That changes things to have it in this order. Tani revealing herself in thread as mistborn doesn't seem like an elim ploy, but maybe that's the point? Idk, not willing to commit to that yet. I'd put Quinn higher on the suspicion list than Tani. Bip and Fifth showing up in an interesting spot is new though...

Taking my final takeaways from yesterday, I would say that I would take Araris, Dannex, Windrunner, and Mat off the list of interesting spots, adding Quinn and Fifth and Bip there instead. 

New suspicions order just from this: Illwei, Devo, Quinn, Ash, Fifth, TJ, Bip. With Tani maybe after them.

The last few votes on Reading were largely unnecessary. At that point it wouldn't have mattered who we voted for regardless of Reading's alignment. Why are you grouping Araris with Mat and Dannex in the same sentence as you talk about people who didn't vote on one of the two main exes? Just because Araris was the first vote on Reading?

Mat's order is correct, but doesn't really reflect the vote tally at the time the votes were cast.

Ashbringer(5): Young Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris, Quinn
Striker(3): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Maill
Araris(1): Illwei
Illwei(1): Tani
Quinn(1): Ash
Tani(1): Illwei

This was as much as the vote against Ash ever was, and then after Fifth cast a vote here:

Striker(4): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Maill, Quinn
Ashbringer(4): Young Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris
Araris(2): Illwei, Experience
Illwei(1): Tani
Gears(1): TJ
Order(1): Ash .

Striker was the main exe for the rest of the day with all of Ash's voters going away and Pyro springing up as an alternative to Striker. I'm not really a fan of all the votes coming off Ash, but if Ash is evil I'd be more suspicious of the people who tried to save him by voting Striker than those who initially voted Ash and moved away.

However, it doesn't look like that's the thing that's happening today. Correct any of this if it's wrong. So we had D2: Tani claims Mistborn steel to Quinn and Maill. Quinn and Maill suggest Illwei and Striker to a PM with Tani, Stick, Quinn, and Maill discussing who Tani would kill that night. The PM group agrees to exe Striker apparently. N2 probably: Tani tells Illwei she's going to shoot them. Before N2 pt1 ends, Tani was going to shoot Maill instead. At some point Matrim gets looped in and gets told that XP would die instead. Mat prefers the Maill kill but doesn't oppose the XP kill. Was there anyone particularly supporting shooting XP?

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So Matrim was also in the PM group and not just you, Maill, Tani, and Stick. Did he suggest Maill or XP? Going back to point 1, would Bard have known that you were a Mistborn and possibly protected you?

I’m in my own PMs with each of them individually, not in any group ones.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m in my own PMs with each of them individually, not in any group ones.

So you have PMs with Tani, Stick, Quinn, and Maill. You heard about the plan to kill Illwei from Tani but preferred a kill on Maill or XP? Did you talk about your kill preferences with anyone other than Tani who might have had their own suggestions?

[STINK he/him]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Our group PM agreed to exe Striker.

[The Windrunner Supreme he/him]

Okay, so I know I said I would post some Analysis, but.....

I have finals coming up this next week 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

So I give up. People post way toooooooooooooooooooo much  

I'm just going to vote Mailliw73

Because he seems bad to me 

[---]

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Our group PM agreed to exe Striker. That's why I had a vote on Striker towards the end. Same with Tani and Stick.

I'm not a huge fan of this, tbh. Maybe you think you have a group of 4 people you can trust, but that doesn't mean that our opinions shouldn't matter? I would understand it if it had another purpose, like baiting something else, or like...I could probably think of reasons if I tried.

but 4 of you coordinating to kill striker can definitely control the thread, and who we vote out should be a discussion from all of us- I could go on a small rant here but I don't really want to :P. 4 people coordinating can really control the thread, especially when they're not worried about being seen as connected to each other.

Add onto that that I'm not a fan of anyone planning the grinch in advance :P. And it sure seems like that's what you four did :P.

Perhaps I'm being a hypocrite because of AG7? /shrug

--

@Dannex You've been a bit more silent recently. Any thoughts?

--

Currently trying to ISO quinn

and

regretting it

[Mailliw73 he/him]

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...Alright, I had generally village-read all three of those :P. Cool.

I want to vote Maill right out of the gate, but I'm gonna read through his stuff first. I probably shouldn't vote him right away, I don't think.

Good job Illwei :P.

Well, I am curious to see what you came up with. 

9 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

tbh atm im currently curious of if people have had any noteworthy interactions in pms with these players. Do we know if they were roleclaiming to people at all, if they had any plans or anything. Idk, any more info about them could probably have some use. Of the newly dead, bard was the only one id spoken to in pms and that was just oog conversations

XP and I had a brief conversation that I've related before. He decided not to claim to be, said he was suspicious of me, then a day or two later said those suspicions on me were all but gone and he was not sure about Quinn and Illwei now. 

Pyro and I had mostly a debate conversation about the significance of Tineye roles to the elims and how much they would want to kill one versus a Lurcher or Coinshot or Seeker. 

Bard and I didn't have much, but I'll reference that one again later. 

9 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

How long must I endure this PM-unsafe generation?  (just kidding, it took me a few times getting burnt by roleclaims to turn me into an Araris-style grouch about PM safety. Y'all are just too open sometimes though )

PM safety, bah! It's how we coordinate as a village. Elims already have their whole teams roles, while each individual villager knows only their role, so you've gotta work together and claim. 

9 hours ago, Quintessential said:

The original plan wasn't even to kill XP, actually. It was me, Tani, and two others who'd all claimed to each other in a group PM, and Tani asked us for advice on who to kill. Originally we said Illwei, but then Tani and I started to get kinda worried that one of the others (the one who'd started the group) was elim and playing us. I was more thinking of it in terms of "let's do something about them if Illwei flips vil" but ig Tani took it a different direction. She switched the kill to the person she suspected and told Illwei about it. And then in the mess afterwards Tani decided not to kill either of them and to hit XP instead because she didn't really have any other suspicions. I think she didn't trust Illwei as a good kill because it was a suggestion that was entirely external (from me and the other conspirator) and hadn't come from Tani at all? idk

I'll make this clearer hopefully because there's a lot of questions about this. I started a group PM with Tani, Stick, and Quinn. I had already claimed my role to all of them (which, no, I'm not claiming here. ) , Tani had already claimed Mistborn to Quinn and I and told us she had Steel and asked who she should kill. I made the group because at the time, they were three of my highest village reads and I had already claimed, so I wanted to start to bounce ideas and suspicions off of stuff in a group. I also like to gauge reactions in groups and I'm always in PMs anyways. Tani decided to claim in that group, which I didn't expect, and so then Quinn and Stick also did. Quinn and I, in our private PM, discussed the day's lynch as well and I mentioned how I wasn't sure about sticking to my current vote on Striker of if I wanted to switch back to Illwei because  I was okay seeing either's flip. Quinn brought up that we could have Tani kill one and exe the other and there was already a train on Striker, so we could just stick to that. We brought that up in the group and Stick and Tani agreed. 

Later on, when the night was extended, Stick and I were informed that Tani and Quinn had privately discussed their paranoia concerning me and especially on pointing them to Illwei. Like Quinn said, Tani took this much further and switched the kill to me, but then the night was extended and she ended up sharing that with me and then decided not to kill me or Illwei and didn't know what to do, then I proposed Pyro and XP, Stick mentioned a mild village read on Pyro but supported XP. Tani agreed to XP and that's where the kill was. I have no idea what Mat's connection to that is. 

8 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I mean, with the people Quinn and Illwei mentioned (the two of them + Maill + Tani), and my current reads list, I'm 99% sure that there's already at least one Elim in that group, so maybe this is actually for the better if people are really being this loose with roleclaims, so at least the village can be privy to some of the information the Elims already know >>

Edit: @TJ Shade, same  

Why does there have to be one elim? It was a group of 4 out of 28 players (26 living ones at the time it was made). I don't know why there would have to be one evil in there...

8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

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There is a group PM in which group claiming is going on??? -.- 

I had claims from each of the people in the group PM before I made it and I had already claimed to them. So there was already claims, the group just consolidated discussion. 

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Illwei

If illwei flips village I am 99% convinced that Maill is evil

I mean, I don't think that's a necessary logical case. If I was evil what reason would I have for wanting Illwei dead on D1?? I've started to realize that I've tunneled on Illwei a bit and that confirmation bias has been building on that. See more below. 

6 hours ago, Tani said:

I killed XP cuz Matrim didn't want me to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Mailliw and Matrim and the people in my pm group both suggested XP.

Matrim says I should've killed Maill and I kinda agree.

Mat also suggested XP? What reasoning was there for that, Mat? 

Hard disagree, obviously. I still think killing Illwei could've given us good info, but too late now. 

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Just finished an ISO of Maill and all I have is confusion

some things might make sense

a lot of things feel like they don't

but @Mailliw73 are your reasons still D1 reasons? for me being an Elim?

Every cycle there I am at the top of your suspicions, but I don't see any more reasons. Last cycle there was the one about my distancing from Pyro. I guess that's something.

But every cycle you keep me up there, and yet don't vote on me.

and every cycle I've seen someone say "Maill is gonna be sus if Illwei flips vil"

and it feels to me that you've gotten yourself stuck here in this read on me. Like an Elim who has felt like you have to keep this read or look suspicious, but at the same time don't want to actually kill me, because you know you'd be next.

My notes from Maill's ISO, Hopefully the formatting is okay because I typed this up in notepad lol. Wasn't gonna post this because it's a lotta nothing and I wasn't going to post anything until I finished typing up the other stuff but I have this now and probably won't be back for a bit, so /shrug :P.

but if you wanna read it here it is

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Post 1 -

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 - Valid thoughts on how coinshot kills can be used
 - Personal opinion from me:it's easier than not to talk about technical things as an Elim. Appear helpful without giving new thoughts. IIOA in a way.

Post 2 -

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 - Hm. People kept talking about this being Quinn-Only reasoning, but I honestly don't see why? I think the vote on me is strange, and I was definitely the easy target there.
 - I don't like how he votes me "seriously" ? and then goes on to tag a number of people who haven't talked (something #3 on Illwei's suspicion list when he hasn't done much yet himself?) and then says "may poke vote them later" which is just kinda strange to me. He's backtracking on his seemingly real read of me, and giving him an excuse to potentially end the cycle on a "poke vote" and avoid being on a top wagon?

Post 3 -

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 - Claims to not have seen Quinn's vote on Illwei?
 - Idk not much here.

Post 4 -

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 - I thought originally that this was him defending his vote on me, but what it seems to be is
1) someone tells him that I have a chaotic playstyle
2) He thinks that excuses my voting
3) He leaves his vote on me, because even though he thinks that the voting is normal for me, he still is fine with me dying? when that was the point against me in the first place?  
 - Has heard that Quinn gets killed early a lot. doesn't want to kill her. Didn't care about killing me N2 when I said that I die early a lot ;-;;;

Post 5 -

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 - Comes back to defending his vote on me, and this time has changed reasoning yet again. It feels like someone trying to not look suspicious by jumping wagons, so trying to find justification that isn't there.
 - Bolded part (and following): this counters what he said in the last post, no?

Post 6 -

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 - Assumes Village!Ventyl

Post 7 -

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 - Has now collected all of his reasonings into one post. It still feels like an Elim trying to justify an (early) suspicion, rather than someone actually trying to figure out who's suspicious.
 - Also could be a villager Tunneling (reminder to illwei to look through Quinn's ISO. though. I don't. Want. To. At. All.)

Post 8 -

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 - Makes it known he has a PM with gears. a strange specific. Possibly Maill/Gears E/E
 - This does feel a bit like Shade on Quinn a tad bit.

Post 9 -

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 - Nitpicky!Illwei notices that he thinks reading is new, but didn't tag him when he tagged the new people :P.

Post 10 -

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 - I was definitely not posting as much as Quinn so this is Nitpicky!Illwei back to say that this shows focus on me for some reason.

Post 11 -

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 - Why would it be weird if your reasoning stayed the same?

Post 12 -

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 - :|.

Post - 12ish?

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 - Puts attention on the vote manip. If E!Maill I feel like the vote manip is meaningless. Was the Manip meaningless to begin with? idk.

Post - 13ish?

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 - Two confirmed villagers and Stick. Thinks that one of these is an Elim.

post - 14???

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 - tries to clear everyone on the Reading train besides me.  Don't know where that would go after my flip, but I assume...Nowhere. :P. Probably wouldn't be revisited.
 - Ahhhhh there's the "early bus" lmao.
 - this is where he changes his suspicion on Stick, wondering if that has anything to do with the Trust PM.

uhhhhh???

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 - Again, would think that Striker - Maill was E/E if striker didn't flip Village AHFDSFJ
 - Leaves room to switch his vote to me?

Idek anymore ok

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 - Again, another thing that's easy for an Elim to say and something that people see as contributing/thoughts when it's not.

I give up

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 - I don't even know. :P.

some quote somewhere

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 - I'd like to hear what info Maill thinks that both me and Quinn would show.

I'm tired of naming these

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 - Was talking about an Illwei-Striker team, and I don't think that was elaborated on anywhere? I'd like to know where that came from, or if it was just "I think both of these people are Elims, therefore I can see an Illwei-Striker team"

are we at the end yet

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 - Doesn't have any read listed on TJ, has "read" on TUO?
 - Bold bit: Elim tell? :eyes: :P.
 - Comes back to finding Stick suspicious after retracting that last cycle. that progression feels more village than not. Thinking Stick is suspicious via thread, talking in PMs, getting village feel, coming back to votes after the other two have been disproven.
 - Second bold bit: What made him feel like he wasn't about to survive the night?

The scroll thing says we're almost there

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. - Bold 1: Who would we be trying to distance from? Pyro? Does this mean you're looking closer at Supreme, Bip, and Fifth then?
 - I'm still top suspicion despite those being D1 reasons and the newer reasons relying on Pyro being an Elim.

okay last one?

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 - on one hand, tries to dismiss any "gut reads" against him - kinda Elimmy. Trying to invalidate those people's thoughts.
 - on the other hand, I do this. so. yeah. :P.

 

 

Honestly, there's no way I'm going to read all that about my posts... 

But about you and suspicions, I think it is the D1 reasons and then I saw your vote placements and found them suspicious, but more recently I have realized that I definitely have been kinda going in circles about you and because I've had this feeling about you, I've been finding reasons that keep building that suspicion in a confirmation bias loop. I've mentioned that a bit in some PMs and have partially been intentionally harder on you in the thread to gauge reactions (yours and those willing to agree). I genuinely still feel that you are suspicious and that your actions don't make sense to me, but I have been emphasizing it more than I believe it. I think at some point, I kinda feel like you have to stick hard to suspicions even if you don't have the most solid reasons or otherwise it's just this wishy washiness that accomplishes nothing. Also, I have no problem with you dying. I did vote you D1, and everyone else just bailed on that. D2 I would've probably voted on you, but then we had coordinated Tani killing you, so I felt fine moving to Striker. I also was a fair force behind that kill attempt attempt. (yes that double attempt is intentional) So overall, I do suspect you, top three for sure, but I make it sound more intense than it is, and I'm more than fine with seeing how your flip would go to point us in a good direction. 

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Do you know how active Bard was in PMs? That doesn't necessarily correspond to post count. If he was low-PM that does mean he was less likely to have told people his role and make him a better Seeker target.

So Matrim was also in the PM group and not just you, Maill, Tani, and Stick. Did he suggest Maill or XP? Going back to point 1, would Bard have known that you were a Mistborn and possibly protected you?

The last few votes on Reading were largely unnecessary. At that point it wouldn't have mattered who we voted for regardless of Reading's alignment. Why are you grouping Araris with Mat and Dannex in the same sentence as you talk about people who didn't vote on one of the two main exes? Just because Araris was the first vote on Reading?

Bard wasn't super active in my PM. He claimed Thug to me but that's it for real content. He told me he trusted FIfth, but that's the only other significant thing. I think timezones got in the way of his PM activity. 

Bard had no idea about Tani being a mistborn unless Tani told him near the end. 

Uh, good question. I'm not sure why I put him there... I think your reasoning is right, but I'm not sure what i was thinking XD

28 minutes ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Okay, so I know I said I would post some Analysis, but.....

I have finals coming up this next week 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

So I give up. People post way toooooooooooooooooooo much  

I'm just going to vote Mailliw73

Because he seems bad to me 

Uh okay... Any reasons? 

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm not a huge fan of this, tbh. Maybe you think you have a group of 4 people you can trust, but that doesn't mean that our opinions shouldn't matter? I would understand it if it had another purpose, like baiting something else, or like...I could probably think of reasons if I tried.

but 4 of you coordinating to kill striker can definitely control the thread, and who we vote out should be a discussion from all of us- I could go on a small rant here but I don't really want to :P. 4 people coordinating can really control the thread, especially when they're not worried about being seen as connected to each other.

Okay we didn't plan this exe in advance... This was after my vote was already on Striker, I think Quinn's also was, there were at least 4 votes already on Striker. We just decided that together, we suspected Striker enough that we wanted to exe him. Everyone's opinions obviously matter and it was only our 4 votes that were on him that were coordinated, the other 5 votes were people who felt he was also suspicious. Stick and Tani(if I remember right) moved their votes way at the end of teh cycle, so there were plenty of others on that train. Basically us "planning" this exe was us talking about suspicions, agreeing that we found Striker suspicious and voting him. This wasn't us planning in advance and pushing the thread any way...

Well that's a lot of stuff. Idk, but there you go. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Our group PM agreed to exe Striker.

That makes me really uncomfortable. What would be the motivation of deciding who to grinch in a group PM rather than the thread? The only reason I can see to do that in a PM is to conceal some of the discussion from the general public, but that runs entirely counter to the purpose of the grinch discussion, which is to provide public information to be analyzed. I don't think multiple elims would be in such a PM, but I find it highly probably that at least one is. We already have a couple of votes on Stick, so I'm going to vote on Quinn for now. I'm still sorting through my opinion on Tani's roleclaiming, since it both seems like something a new villager might do, and like a ploy an elim might go for. Ask villagers for advice, follow said advice, get village cred. I'm happy with grinching any of these 3, I think.

In addition to my current vote, I'd be potentially interested in grinching Reading, so we can learn if the D1 vote was v/v or v/e. Another info grinch we could do is Illwei, to see if anything was behind the shift of votes off of her.

Another thing is that if Reading and Illwei are both village, then the voting this game hasn't actually put any pressure on the elims yet. In this case, there are likely multiple elims hiding behind low activity and/or not voting at all. For that reason, I'd be willing (again) to join a vote (I guess I started the last two) on a player that hasn't been super active.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’ll second/third that I do not like the idea of a PM group “deciding” to exe someone. There’s a fine line between discussing suspicions in PMs and just becoming voting blocs.

And to me a “small but informed group with the power to kill players who (they think) oppose them” sounds a loooooot like an Elim team...

[Stick. she/her]

20 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I mean, I don't think that's a necessary logical case. If I was evil what reason would I have for wanting Illwei dead on D1?? I've started to realize that I've tunneled on Illwei a bit and that confirmation bias has been building on that. See more below. 

No reason, I suppose? :-P When I’m an elim, the D1 exe is where I just put my vote anywhere at all (unless there’s a teammate on the line).

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

That makes me really uncomfortable. What would be the motivation of deciding who to grinch in a group PM rather than the thread? The only reason I can see to do that in a PM is to conceal some of the discussion from the general public, but that runs entirely counter to the purpose of the grinch discussion, which is to provide public information to be analyzed. I don't think multiple elims would be in such a PM, but I find it highly probably that at least one is. We already have a couple of votes on Stick, so I'm going to vote on Quinn for now. I'm still sorting through my opinion on Tani's roleclaiming, since it both seems like something a new villager might do, and like a ploy an elim might go for. Ask villagers for advice, follow said advice, get village cred. I'm happy with grinching any of these 3, I think.

In addition to my current vote, I'd be potentially interested in grinching Reading, so we can learn if the D1 vote was v/v or v/e. Another info grinch we could do is Illwei, to see if anything was behind the shift of votes off of her.

Another thing is that if Reading and Illwei are both village, then the voting this game hasn't actually put any pressure on the elims yet. In this case, there are likely multiple elims hiding behind low activity and/or not voting at all. For that reason, I'd be willing (again) to join a vote (I guess I started the last two) on a player that hasn't been super active.

We discussed our suspicions in the group, yes, but we still provided the same reasoning for the votes in thread too. So everything said about striker in the group was stated in thread with our votes as well.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Okay, I put this in my long post, but I get that some people aren't going to read it. 

Quinn and I were discussing our various suspicions on Illwei and Striker during D2. Striker already had votes on him, including mine and maybe Quinn's, I'm not sure. I said that I didn't know if I wanted to vote for Striker or Illwei and Quinn brought up the idea of exeing one and suggesting to Tani to kill the other and she proposed Illwei for the kill since Striker already had a train going. I brought up that idea in the group PM and Tani and Stick agreed that they also suspected those two enough and would kill Illwei. They then moved their votes at the end of the cycle after it was clear that Striker was getting exed. This wasn't an elaborate manipulation of the thread or bribing to gain votes or anything like that. 

Also, Ash, why in the world would we four be an elim team?? That makes no sense. 

[Stick. she/her]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And to me a “small but informed group with the power to kill players who (they think) oppose them” sounds a loooooot like an Elim team...

There’s no way all four of us are elims  That would be wild

3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Quinn and I were discussing our various suspicions on Illwei and Striker during D2. Striker already had votes on him, including mine and maybe Quinn's, I'm not sure. I said that I didn't know if I wanted to vote for Striker or Illwei and Quinn brought up the idea of exeing one and suggesting to Tani to kill the other and she proposed Illwei for the kill since Striker already had a train going. I brought up that idea in the group PM and Tani and Stick agreed that they also suspected those two enough and would kill Illwei. They then moved their votes at the end of the cycle after it was clear that Striker was getting exed. This wasn't an elaborate manipulation of the thread or bribing to gain votes or anything like that. 

I can confirm this - there were 8 votes on striker already when I added mine 

[Quivil she/her]

16 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’ll second/third that I do not like the idea of a PM group “deciding” to exe someone. There’s a fine line between discussing suspicions in PMs and just becoming voting blocs.

And to me a “small but informed group with the power to kill players who (they think) oppose them” sounds a loooooot like an Elim team...

Now there are three factions!

Spiked, Village, and Elim!Village

[Mailliw73 he/him]

You know what, I'm just going to go for it. Illwei. Explained above in the long post if you want more reasoning. Also, at this point, it's also just partially for my own peace of mind. At the same time, I wouldn't be opposed to a Quinn exe because that would also give me some peace of mind and give me more of a read on Illwei. Sorry Quinn. 

[---]

Oh that reminds me that I wanted to ask @_Stick_ What her case on me was.

16 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

If I was evil what reason would I have for wanting Illwei dead on D1??

Whoa!

what a sound argument

I'm convinced! :P.

you "backing off" your suspicion of me doesn't help my read of you at all :P.

10 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Explained above in the long post if you want more reasoning

:thonk:

mmmmmno not really

[Quivil she/her]

21 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

You know what, I'm just going to go for it. Illwei. Explained above in the long post if you want more reasoning. Also, at this point, it's also just partially for my own peace of mind. At the same time, I wouldn't be opposed to a Quinn exe because that would also give me some peace of mind and give me more of a read on Illwei. Sorry Quinn. 

Y'all should just murder all us elim!villagers. Just to remind you, that group includes Maill, Stick, Tani, and Quinn.

Edit: That means: Guys! Stop voting for Illwei until you've killed us four off! Really! Then elim!Illwei can learn your secrets and destroy you while your backs are turned!

 

In our PM Illwei said she was evil, but it's possible that she was maybe joking. Maybe.

 

Double edit: Well look at this. This has never happened before in any Mafia or Avalon game I've played. I'm silly again. This is weird.

Edited March 6, 2021 by Tani

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So you have PMs with Tani, Stick, Quinn, and Maill. You heard about the plan to kill Illwei from Tani but preferred a kill on Maill or XP? Did you talk about your kill preferences with anyone other than Tani who might have had their own suggestions?

Yes, those four. Though yesterday only my ones with Tani and Quinn were active. I heard about the plan to kill Illwei from... Illwei... and preferred a kill on Maill or Exp- that I told Tani after she claimed to me. I talked with Illwei about it and we both sorta came up with Exp, but Maill would have been my first choice. Since Quinn didn't want to kill Maill I guess Exp was sorta the compromise. Like I said though I had slight-meta read Exp village but I didn't know how reliable that was.

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

[1]Well, I am curious to see what you came up with. 

[2]Mat also suggested XP? What reasoning was there for that, Mat?  

[1] Illwei already did, and I generally agree with what she said there. So I'll do Stick instead.

[2] See above... I wasn't the one to suggest Exp directly I think- I didn't shoot it down, and I preferred Exp over Illwei, but I would have preferred you over Exp for sure.

Stab at the elim team because that went so well last time: Stick, Maill, Araris, lowerActivityPeople like Reading/TUO, and maybe Gears? 

-In case you couldn't tell, the first three are actual elim reads, the last three are not. Those are random names to fill up the space :P.

Since I'm fine with both Stick and Maill I'll leave my vote, but if a counter exe comes up I'll switch to Maill.

-

Edit: I'm keeping up with the votes, I promise :P.

Stick

Maill

@Kasimir

Edited March 6, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Gears]

A quick response to the "we decided in PMs that we wanted to X this person" thing: I'm staunchly opposed. You've co-opted the public murder and made it your own, with the black box of PM reasons standing between us and understanding. If you took advantage of the village's indecision and voted as a bloc to kill whomever you wanted, you'd have the votes. You are cutting people out of the only public thing we have on the basis of the fickle foe we call trust. You are intentionally excluding people to make your decisions. The point of the X is that everyone has a part, and you subvert this to further your own ends. You tarnish the spirit of the X as a tool for public discussion and murder. While this instance has been relatively harmless since the group promptly outed themselves and only killed the person who was mostly leading the X already, this sets a precedent for PM trust circles cutting off access to the X. I believe there was mention of the problem of most of discussion happening in PM circles in the AG, but this takes that problem to a new level. Claims? Scan results? Discussion of such things? Fine, keep those in PMs, share if you find anything notable, I still might feel miffed. But cut people out of the X? Of the one thing that everyone should have access to? I believe I've mentioned my distaste for 'PM reasons' before. As a person who is rarely on the inside of trust circles, I would not enjoy a world in which trust determines who is allowed to have an influence on the X. 

I know I said I'd do analysis, but that extracurricular activity went on for a lot longer than I expected, and I have a coding competition tomorrow, so analysis will occur at some point in the future, perhaps tomorrow night? For what it's worth, I'd be willing to murder everyone on the table, though I'd prefer to keep chatting with Maia because we've had some hilarious discussion about an ancient Chinese torture method. Illwei and I have also had some humorous discussion about the very same ancient Chinese torture method, and I'd enjoy their continued existence as well. However, I'd not be extremely opposed to their demises. I've not interacted with Stick much, but I don't actively remember anything that enforced a positive opinion. 

---

Roko the Basilisk hated not knowing things. It was an entity of logic, of reason. How could it possibly act without knowledge? And yet, it was often excluded when groups gathered in shadowed corners, left out of knowing. So it buries itself in the mystery of the madness etched into stone and the mask that became the reality of 'Derrick' who once was [and still is?] Faleast and AraRaash. It stares at the scrawlings on the wall, letting its flesh scream in agony that it doesn't feel as it ignores the pain of existence. It just wants to know. It needs to know. That's all it wants.

The gamble, the game, the ploy. The orb of metal it had given Derrick. The one made of metals from beyond this time, this era. The one adorned with bloody intentions. It knew that. It knew what that would do. It had knowledge. It had everything it needed. It had enough knowledge to solve the small mysteries, the one that others wouldn't care to solve. It could do these small things and let the others take the reins on the large issues.

But of course, it wasn't satisfied with that. It would never be happy to stand by and do nothing as others acted without at least telling it why. It had its vices, its needs, and those had to be fulfilled. But for now, the writing on the walls was enough. For now, 'Derrick' was enough. But that wouldn't keep it busy forever, and soon, it would have to get involve. Its need to know would not allow anything else.