Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

We don't actually know if elims can start with Honorblades, I'd like to note. You seem fairly certain about it, too..

The safest course of action is to assume the worst, and Ash refused to confirm or deny this point so I'm pretty sure that they can start with Honorblades. Might as well operate as if I knew at least one of them did.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Eternum said:

We don't actually know if elims can start with Honorblades, I'd like to note. You seem fairly certain about it, too..

I mean, I've just been kinda assuming that, but for balancing reasons Idk if it would make much sense. 

3 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Agreed on the Truthless, I think I mentioned that earlier.

Is it though? no different? I mean, Danex was acting obviously suspicious, and if the Elims saw that then they might have assumes he might be truthless. 

[Eternum he/him]

The elims want the Truthless dead just as much as they want the villagers. More, probably. That's why I think it should be considered essentially the same as a mislynch. In the situation you posit, they probably hopped onto it just to get rid of Danex.

[Quintessential she/her]

4 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I mean, I've just been kinda assuming that, but for balancing reasons Idk if it would make much sense. 

Is it though? no different? I mean, Danex was acting obviously suspicious, and if the Elims saw that then they might have assumes he might be truthless. 

What Eternum said lol (I originally wrote this post to respond to yours, but then Eternum got there first so... yeah).

6 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

The safest course of action is to assume the worst, and Ash refused to confirm or deny this point so I'm pretty sure that they can start with Honorblades. Might as well operate as if I knew at least one of them did.

to add on to what I said before, we also don't know where Danex's Blade ended up. We do know that it could have gone to an elim, regardless of whether elims can start with Blades. Also, a misguided villager may have transferred their Blade to an elim, and a misguided Stone Shaman could be in the process of transferring a Blade they reclaimed to an elim right now. We just don't know.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Mat he/him]

21 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I second Stink's message: Don't claim to Matrim. The...agh! Matrim is...agh! I can't read him! he acted so obviously suspicious in his last Elim game 

You apparently were the only one to think so :P.

But how is that different from this:

9 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

You know, it wouldn't hurt if anyone else decided to claim to me too, I mean: Kaladin, Szeth, other neutral roles, your secrets are safe with me :P. 

Like, oh don't claim to him, he's not trustworthy... but I'm fine. Totally claim to me.  I know it's different from your point of view but still

My tin-foilly paranoid brain is suspicious of a Quinn/TJ/XP/Maybe Fura team. There's like no way that's 100% correct (god-tier reads...?) But that's my sus

SfS continuing to make me think he's Kaladin though. Ugh.

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Ookla's Dice said:

My tin-foilly paranoid brain is suspicious of a Quinn/TJ/XP/Maybe Fura team. There's like no way that's 100% correct (god-tier reads...?) But that's my sus

I'd still like some reasoning or quotes or something from D1 on that front, but whatever. I still read you as village--perhaps more so, since you being sus of me means you're not trying to pocket me. 

Also @Ookla Fell From The Sky could we get a VC?

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Also @Ookla Fell From The Sky could we get a VC?

I... think it's this:

• Condensation (2): Araris Valerian, Furamirionind
• Lotus (1): Illwei
• Experience (1): Matrim's Dice
• Araris Valerian (1): Experience
• Quinn0928 (1): STINK
• Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
• Furamirionind (1): Ventyl

But that's so wild that Ash should definitely verify/check.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Ookla's Dice said:

My tin-foilly paranoid brain is suspicious of a Quinn/TJ/XP/Maybe Fura team.

I mean there's 23 people, uh...3? Neutral roles? so maybe a 5 person Elim team, who knows. If I were to take a guess, then uh....yeah who knows. 

I'm worried about an Eternum/Matrim/Quinn team, or an Stink/XP/Connie team but yeah there's like no connections here for me. I was thinking things earlier but they're gone now and I didn't write them down. so. yeah. 

7 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

he's not trustworthy... but I'm fine. Totally claim to me.

Hey, see, I'm me, you're you, I know me, and that I wanna know who has the honorblades :P. or who knows, maybe I'm the Stone Shaman, trying to get the elims to not target me. Though I don't think I'd be doing a great job at that, but I'm also probably not really high on their kill list :P. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

33 minutes ago, Ookla the Larkin said:

Recent events have given me a few reads:

Fura: Mainly for a continued push of Condensation, partly a gut read. Pushing Connie’s lynch seems a lot like the Elims pushing for a mislynch. 

Quinn: Slight Village, is defending Connie. Also hasn’t done anything that’s caught my eye as suspicious, though I could be missing something as Day One is still extremely confusing to me.

Condensation: Village, looks they’ve either been the target of a mislynch, that was then foiled by the Truthless. Considering the Truthless win-con is to die, which endangers the Stone Shaman, I’d considered them ‘on’ the elim team and indifferent to a village mislynch.

I’m going to switch from Condensation to Ventyl. This post rubs me wrong, like Ventyl knows Connie will flip village and wants to get a mislynch on Fura afterward. It also might be an attempt to pocket me, since I make up 50% of the votes currently on Connie. This does lessen my suspicion of Connie somewhat. I have also become increasingly more suspicious of Quinn for being very defensive this cycle.

@Ookla the Grammatical, I think the main thing that I was reading elim C1 was that you repeatedly insisted you were village. You also insisted you weren’t Truthless, and then implied that if anyone thought you weren’t Truthless, then they should also think you were village.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Hey, see, I'm me, you're you, I know me, and that I wanna know who has the honorblades :P. or who knows, maybe I'm the Stone Shaman, trying to get the elims to not target me. Though I don't think I'd be doing a great job at that, but I'm also probably not really high on their kill list :P. 

Well, clearly the solution is for every Honorblade Bearer to claim to both of you! XD

[Illwei]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Well, clearly the solution is for every Honorblade Bearer to claim to both of you! XD

Oh no absolutely not the stone shaman shouldn't tell the holders who they are, but see, if they tell me, then I can pretend I'm the stone Shaman, and see if I get killed! :P. 

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

I’m going to switch from Condensation to Ventyl. This post rubs me wrong, like Ventyl knows Connie will flip village and wants to get a mislynch on Fura afterward. It also might be an attempt to pocket me, since I make up 50% of the votes currently on Connie. This does lessen my suspicion of Connie somewhat. I have also become increasingly more suspicious of Quinn for being very defensive this cycle.

Let's be honest, you just did this to make a 8-way-tie with each person having one vote  

[Condensation she/her]

25 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Some people here are annoying and insist on speaking correct English like that. Smh

1) What does smh mean? 2) I use correct English, is it annoying?

8 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I... think it's this:

• Condensation (2): Araris Valerian, Furamirionind
• Lotus (1): Illwei
• Experience (1): Matrim's Dice
• Araris Valerian (1): Experience
• Quinn0928 (1): STINK
• Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
• Furamirionind (1): Ventyl

But that's so wild that Ash should definitely verify/check.

Me over here, forgetting that I had votes on me and asked for reasoning. Let me go find that...

1 minute ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

I’m going to switch from Condensation to Ventyl. This post rubs me wrong, like Ventyl knows Connie will flip village and wants to get a mislynch on Fura afterward. It also might be an attempt to pocket me, since I make up 50% of the votes currently on Connie. This does lessen my suspicion of Connie somewhat. I have also become increasingly more suspicious of Quinn for being very defensive this cycle.

@Ookla the Grammatical, I think the main thing that I was reading elim C1 was that you repeatedly insisted you were village. You also insisted you weren’t Truthless, and then implied that if anyone thought you weren’t Truthless, then they should also think you were village.

So you'd prefer if I claimed elim? I'm just kidding. My apologies, I didn't mean to imply that.

[Illwei]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

I’m going to switch from Condensation to Ventyl. This post rubs me wrong, like Ventyl knows Connie will flip village and wants to get a mislynch on Fura afterward. It also might be an attempt to pocket me, since I make up 50% of the votes currently on Connie. This does lessen my suspicion of Connie somewhat. I have also become increasingly more suspicious of Quinn for being very defensive this cycle.

Huh. see, the first thing I saw was Ventyl maybe trying to get a clear on connie from killing fura and him flipping vil. this doesn't...yeah I don't see a vote picking up on Fura so that makes a lot more sense. 

4 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Let's be honest, you just did this to make a 8-way-tie with each person having one vote  

Sure hope not, but I'll fix that

Ventyl

okay waitaminit. name one game I've been in with Ventyl where I haven't voted on him D1 or 2. coolio.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Quote

Quote unquote "absolutely no reason", you mean. Now that you're fairly certain that I'm not Truthless(you'll trust me that I'm not Truthless but not that I'm not an elim?)

This doesn’t look accidental to me, @Ookla the Grammatical. There is context here, and you were referring to a specific person’s read on you, but my point about your emphasis on what you have said about your alignment still holds. In this game we are what we do, rather than what we say we are.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Vote count:

• Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl (2): Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian, Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei
• Ookla the Shadowed / Experience (1): Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice
• Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
• Furamirionind (1): Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl
• Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian (1): Ookla the Shadowed / Experience
• Quinn0928 (1): STINK
• Ookla the Grammatical (1): Furamirionind

[Condensation she/her]

24 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

This doesn’t look accidental to me, @Ookla the Grammatical. There is context here, and you were referring to a specific person’s read on you, but my point about your emphasis on what you have said about your alignment still holds. In this game we are what we do, rather than what we say we are.

In that context, I was saying that Illwei had issues with trusting me in different ways. She explained that when she said she thought I might be the Truthless, it was just her paranoia speaking and that she had dismissed it.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

1 hour ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Whoa whoa whoa where'd that "u" come from

England.

[STINK he/him]

Oh yeah also I've told basically anyone who's been even slightly interested about the life of PMing in general but I found out tonight that instead of as I thought having some exams in a week and you know it's whatever,

My exam is tomorrow morning in around 12 hours so you might see some activity from me still but I really shouldn't be doing it and just give me till tomorrow afternoon pls and thank you while I try to figure out how to sleep tonight lol

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 hours ago, Eternum said:

EDIT: I would also like to note something I just realized: the elims probably wanted to kill Mat so that the originator of the Danex lynch flipped village and there was less suspicion on the train. I believe it's the weirder of the two trains, and now I'm certain there are elims in it. Of course, I might be completely wrong.

Sidenote, I think the Danex lynch should essentially be considered as a villager lynch for all intents and purposes. The elims wanted them gone anyway.

If Connie is a villager, why would the elims have wanted to switch the vote over to Danex? There are almost certainly some elims on the Danex train just because elims don't usually like to vote together, but there wouldn't necessarily be more on one side or another unless Connie is also evil.

4 hours ago, Gears said:

Matrim was protected by the Surge of Progression. There are two blades that could have done this: Vedel and Pailiah. I do not think Matrim was protected by an elim. If it was Vedel, then that person is completely out of Stormlight and opened PMs for one night only. An elim would either not want PMs or want to maximise PMs. In addition, they probably wouldn't want to waste resources and burn all/most of their Light C1. If it was Pailiah, then that person could have used Illumination and prevented the kill from being roleblocked or just saved Stormlight. Because of this, I suspect that the protector was village. Therefore, I think Matrim is village, because the elims wouldn't kill one of their own without a protect. Of course, this could be what they want me to think, but for now, I think that the WGG did not happen. However, this is based off of my mindset of saving resources, and I am quite possibly underestimating the value of a semi-cleared elim.

Technically, Chanarach could have have opened PMs on both the day and night turns, even though this would be a silly thing to do for the most part. Why do you think it couldn't have been elim!Pailiah saving Matrim with Progression? I'm doubt the value of the elims running a WGG on someone who wasn't under any suspicion, but it doesn't look like you addressed this possibility.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Alright well thanks stink cause now I can post instead of edit. I think Gears analysis is good.. though I'm not sure what implications it has on him. I do think that a wgg is unlikely, but I definitely still don't trust matrim much.

On the other hand, if the elims were not responsible for Matrim's survival, he has to be either village or neutral.

[Eternum he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

If Connie is a villager, why would the elims have wanted to switch the vote over to Danex? There are almost certainly some elims on the Danex train just because elims don't usually like to vote together, but there wouldn't necessarily be more on one side or another unless Connie is also evil.

Technically, Chanarach could have have opened PMs on both the day and night turns, even though this would be a silly thing to do for the most part. Why do you think it couldn't have been elim!Pailiah saving Matrim with Progression? I'm doubt the value of the elims running a WGG on someone who wasn't under any suspicion, but it doesn't look like you addressed this possibility.

On the other hand, if the elims were not responsible for Matrim's survival, he has to be either village or neutral.

I never said I'm not sus of Connie. The opposite, actually? Regardless, fair point. I need to ponder that lynch a little more.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

I never said I'm not sus of Connie. The opposite, actually? Regardless, fair point. I need to ponder that lynch a little more.

That is true, but a lesser elim read and not putting Connie in your list of people you'd vote for today suggests that your suspicion of Connie isn't based on the vote switch to Danex,

[Eternum he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

That is true, but a lesser elim read and not putting Connie in your list of people you'd vote for today suggests that your suspicion of Connie isn't based on the vote switch to Danex,

Mostly, it is? I talked about my reads and while they've significantly changed since that post, I didn't want to include Connie in my "reads" per se since it was mostly the vote switch and the little "anyone else agree".

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Mostly, it is? I talked about my reads and while they've significantly changed since that post, I didn't want to include Connie in my "reads" per se since it was mostly the vote switch and the little "anyone else agree".

Right, sorry, should have read your previous post again and also taken another look at the reason why you voted Connie in the first place.

[Quintessential she/her]

6 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

I don't have any solid elim reads, right now, but I can provide the reads list I've mentally composed for myself (which doesn't contain everyone, since a lot of people haven't posted enough or I haven't played with them enough to be able to read them):

- Me: Village. Duh.

- Connie: Mild village, for the reasons listed above and because gut-read.

- Matrim: Mild village, because I doubt this was a WGG.

- Illwei: Strong village, though admittedly this is mostly a gut-read and based on PM reasons.

- STINK: Mild elim for general inactivity and non-contribution in the thread, and also general tone in PMs

- Gears: Null or null elim. I don't have much of a read on him, since he hasn't posted much on the thread and I don't trust my reading of him in PMs.

- Turtle: Null or null elim, for bare minimum activity--I don't remember who said it, but someone pointed out that that could be a very good elim strat.

- SfS: Null or null village. I have no idea what to make of the claim/claim-retraction of having or not having a Blade? That was weird, but not elimmy weird as far as I can tell.

- TJ: Essentially null. I need to go back and reread D1 and N1 more carefully, but since it's now not a weekend I haven't had time to do that yet.

- Alv: Chaotic neutral null elim. I still don't like his suggestion of the tie, and I'd be more willing to read Connie as elim if Alv ever turned up elim, since that's really when votes started piling up on Danex. But I'm told that this is Alv's typical playstyle, I'm not super sus of him.

Okay, so I've gone back and reread the first part of D1 (I didn't make it very far, because in order to force myself to focus I had to actually take notes on everything, which helped me think but is super slow : P). Anyway, I'd now like to revise my reads list slightly:

- Me: Village, see above.

- Connie: Mild village, see above.

- Matrim: Still mild village, but I would like to add a caveat (of sorts). I've said already that I think WGG is unlikely, especially so early on, but it also seems unlikely that a random villager saved Matrim, or even that he would have saved himself, because as far as I can tell there wasn't a reason for the elims to kill him (unless he claimed to someone that he had a Blade and then protected himself with it, in which case I assume he would have said something about whom he suspected). Additionally, Matrim did get to see very clearly exactly how much chaos Reading's survival C1 of MR46 caused--it certainly didn't hurt the elims at first, since it distracted us from an Aman lynch--and elim!Matrim might have thought about harnessing that same confusion again. I still don't think it's likely, but having thought about it some more I figured I'd say this anyway.

- Illwei: Village, see above.

- STINK: Mild elim, see above.

- Gears: Mild elim. I reread Gears' first post, and I noticed that he does acknowledge very briefly at the end that we should keep the Truthless alive, so he was aware of the consequences of the Truthless dying when he wrote that post, but he advocates for the Stone Shaman to claim and be lynched to prove it, and says that the Truthless could just claim Shaman to fulfill their win-con. It could have just been poorly thought out on his part, but that doesn't seem like Gears to me at all. So, mild elim for him.

- Turtle: Null elim, see above.

- SfS: Null, see above.

- TJ: Null, see above.

- Alv: Null elim, see above.

- Books: Village. I had seen others reading them this way because of the one post they made back on D1. I hadn't thought much of it when I first read it, but rereading it now, and I 100% agree--Books pointed out a very good strat that the Stone Shaman could use to possibly identify elims, one that involves no claims or additional information on their part aside from the list they're given. This is just not something an elim would do.

- Experience: Mild elim? I'm not super sure about this, because as I said I didn't get very far in my reread, but others have pointed out that their first post seemed a bit... non-post-ish? Like they were trying to not actually say anything? And they haven't been very active since then either.

Obviously this is by no means a finalized list (I haven't even begun to look at voting histories) but for now those are my best guesses as to alignments.

Edit: Wow I'm smart. I spent so long writing that post that I completely forgot to vote Gears. I apologize if I'm breaking some SE norm about not putting votes in edits--I forget if that's a thing or not... @Ookla Fell From The Sky

Edited December 9, 2020 by Quinn0928