Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Quintessential she/her]

5 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I don't win by holding honorblades :P. I win by killing the elims.

Wait, but that's the village win-con!

[|TJ| he/him]

13 minutes ago, STINK said:

This is the worse alternative, just tell us what happens when u win holding honourblades

Lmao this is fun xD 

My elim suspect pool consists of Gears, Lotus, Experience, and Somebody from Sel. Reasons stated during N1. 

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

3 hours ago, Ookla the Larkin said:

As I still really don’t have much of idea what’s even happening in this game, and I doubt I ever will due to the extremely long D1, all my suspicions are gut-reads only. And at this point I don’t have enough information to really make an actual good post describing why I read certain people as more elim. Hopefully I can try to tear apart day one soon. Yet again, I’m sorry that I probably won’t be as helpful in this game until the later cycles.

Feel free to do what I'm doing and not bother much with D1. Lol

Instead im taking my basic and gut reads from d1 and doing real analysis starting N1

2 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

I have a hard time remembering the Honorblades. For some reason, one is stuck in my head but I can't remember any of the others or what they do

I keep trying to remember what abilities Jezrien's blade has before remembering its not in this game lol.

May edit in response to page 3 as I'm on mobile

[STINK he/him]

Quinn 'cause why not

[Quintessential she/her]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

Quinn 'cause why not

Because I'm village and because "why not" is a terrible reason to vote for someone after D1. 

Edit: actually I'd say it's just a lack of reason, which is exactly what we're trying to avoid.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Alright well thanks stink cause now I can post instead of edit. I think Gears analysis is good.. though I'm not sure what implications it has on him. I do think that a wgg is unlikely, but I definitely still don't trust matrim much. 

I'm going to vote on Grammar

I was suspicious of you before, and you survived a lynch... that's pretty bad. Your flip also significantly tells us information on many other players. Plus another reason I may or may not share later on in the cycle.

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I was suspicious of you before, and you survived a lynch... that's pretty bad. Your flip also significantly tells us information on many other players. Plus another reason I may or may not share later on in the cycle.

She survived the lynch because the Truthless used vote-manip to add a vote to his own count, and for no other reason. Since nothing else happened to the vote-count even though the elims have a vote-manip 'cause Kaladin, and couldn't have known that Danex would do what he did, I'm inclined to believe that Connie is village for the moment.

[Eternum he/him]

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

She survived the lynch because the Truthless used vote-manip to add a vote to his own count, and for no other reason. Since nothing else happened to the vote-count even though the elims have a vote-manip 'cause Kaladin, and couldn't have known that Danex would do what he did, I'm inclined to believe that Connie is village for the moment.

She survived the lynch because a whole new train appeared and drew attention. Kaladin could have been doing an entirely different night action. Or they could have gone to sleep. Or they're inactive. Or, or, or..

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

11 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

She survived the lynch because the Truthless used vote-manip to add a vote to his own count, and for no other reason. Since nothing else happened to the vote-count even though the elims have a vote-manip 'cause Kaladin, and couldn't have known that Danex would do what he did, I'm inclined to believe that Connie is village for the moment.

I believe that's a bit of a simplistic way of looking at votes... she survived because people came out to defend her halfway through the cycle, and then people jumped on a counter lynch last minute... 

So assuming Connie was an elim, why didn't they use vote manip to make sure she survived? Well, it's possible they did. Danex could have, but he was minimally active, and may have forgotten to submit an action.

Perhaps also the elims were willing to risk a 50/50 chance because if they used vote manip its more likely Connie would just die the following turn, so by risking her life, they have a greater chance long term of her surviving.

These are both possible... while I don't think the first is likely, its still possible. I've also seen the second happen several times. Basically my point is I don't think your point detracts at all from Connie likely being evil. And while i don't like information lynches cause they're not fun, its worth mentioning even if she flips village we still learn a lot.

Edit: or any of the things eturnum said. Thats probably more likely than my examples... but there are lots of possibilities which was my point (made better by him)

Edited December 8, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, Eternum said:

She survived the lynch because a whole new train appeared and drew attention. Kaladin could have been doing an entirely different night action. Or they could have gone to sleep. Or they're inactive. Or, or, or..

The whole new train arose and drew attention because, as Matrim has pointed out, Danex got on the Connie train and then immediately got off again. Which, since he was Truthless, we now know was supposed to be sus on his part. Matrim then called him out for it and started the train. If you're suggesting Matrim/Connie e/e, then it could very well be that Matrim took advantage of Danex's sus behavior to save his teammate, but I personally don't think that WGG is likely, so I doubt this particular outcome. 

It would have been a Day action, not a Night one, because votes happen during the Day, and Kaladin (as I pointed out D1) only has one Day action: vote-manip. It's possible that Kaladin was asleep or inactive, but I find it unlikely that the elim's only vote-manip would do that.

Of course, anything is possible at this point. Anything is possible always, since we have no alignment-scan roles. But I find it unlikely based on these arguments that Connie is elim.

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I believe that's a bit of a simplistic way of looking at votes... she survived because people came out to defend her halfway through the cycle, and then people jumped on a counter lynch last minute... 

So assuming Connie was an elim, why didn't they use vote manip to make sure she survived? Well, it's possible they did. Danex could have, but he was minimally active, and may have forgotten to submit an action.

Perhaps also the elims were willing to risk a 50/50 chance because if they used vote manip its more likely Connie would just die the following turn, so by risking her life, they have a greater chance long term of her surviving.

These are both possible... while I don't think the first is likely, its still possible. I've also seen the second happen several times. Basically my point is I don't think your point detracts at all from Connie likely being evil. And while i don't like information lynches cause they're not fun, its worth mentioning even if she flips village we still learn a lot.

Edit: or any of the things eturnum said. Thats probably more likely than my examples... but there are lots of possibilities which was my point (made better by him)

People came out to defend her halfway through the cycle because she wasn't actually that suspicious in the first place; it was the D1 vote, and the first couple of votes were merely because of a slight play-style change on her part. Since she's only played three games before that's not all that surprising. 

Also, you're entirely wrong that it might have been the elims that vote-maniped because there is only one blade that adds a vote and Danex had it. The elims physically could not have vote-manipped in the way that we saw happen.

Again, it's possible that the elims didn't want to risk exposing one of their own D1 through a vote-manip, since they had no idea Danex was Truthless, but they also could easily have suggested that one of Connie's other defenders, or even Connie herself, or someone who was sus of Danex, vote-manipped if they'd removed a vote from her to protect her.

 

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

4 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

The whole new train arose and drew attention because, as Matrim has pointed out, Danex got on the Connie train and then immediately got off again. Which, since he was Truthless, we now know was supposed to be sus on his part. Matrim then called him out for it and started the train. If you're suggesting Matrim/Connie e/e, then it could very well be that Matrim took advantage of Danex's sus behavior to save his teammate, but I personally don't think that WGG is likely, so I doubt this particular outcome. 

I'm not sure if this conversation will go anywhere... but the counter lynch is still there. It doesn't have to be started by elims for elims to use it. Full stop. Lol.

6 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

People came out to defend her halfway through the cycle because she wasn't actually that suspicious in the first place; it was the D1 vote, and the first couple of votes were merely because of a slight play-style change on her part. Since she's only played three games before that's not all that surprising. 

So we had 23 players in this game. Up to 25% of these players could be elims. If one of those elims is put up for the lynch they will try to get each other out of it. Villagers might disagree with the lynch or might agree. This let's us establish patterns... like being the lynch target the entire cycle only to last minute have it shift to someone else.

It also doesn't matter why the votes were there initially. That was to generate content. It did, and I think that content to be condemning.

9 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Also, you're entirely wrong that it might have been the elims that vote-maniped because there is only one blade that adds a vote and Danex had it. The elims physically could not have vote-manipped in the way that we saw happen.

Again, it's possible that the elims didn't want to risk exposing one of their own D1 through a vote-manip, since they had no idea Danex was Truthless, but they also could easily have suggested that one of Connie's other defenders, or even Connie herself, or someone who was sus of Danex, vote-manipped if they'd removed a vote from her to protect her.

Thank you for pointing out my incorrect remembrance of the rules... however this doesn't take away from the point.

There are lots of possibilities to what could have happened in a cycle. That was my entire point. Lol

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

There are lots of possibilities to what could have happened in a cycle. That was my entire point. Lol

In most cases there are a lot of possibilities, yeah... that's most of what makes the game hard. I'm sticking with my village read of Connie, though--I don't really think the scenarios in which she's elim are likely, as I said above.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Who do you think is an elim at the moment?

[Eternum he/him]

9 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

The whole new train arose and drew attention because, as Matrim has pointed out, Danex got on the Connie train and then immediately got off again. Which, since he was Truthless, we now know was supposed to be sus on his part. Matrim then called him out for it and started the train. If you're suggesting Matrim/Connie e/e, then it could very well be that Matrim took advantage of Danex's sus behavior to save his teammate, but I personally don't think that WGG is likely, so I doubt this particular outcome. 

It would have been a Day action, not a Night one, because votes happen during the Day, and Kaladin (as I pointed out D1) only has one Day action: vote-manip. It's possible that Kaladin was asleep or inactive, but I find it unlikely that the elim's only vote-manip would do that.

Of course, anything is possible at this point. Anything is possible always, since we have no alignment-scan roles. But I find it unlikely based on these arguments that Connie is elim.

Mat's vote was on Danex far before Danex retracted their vote from Connie, so I believe you're misremembering.

That's true, good point. However there's the question of Stormlight consumption, and also I think timezones tend to thwart most attempts at staying awake for late-night actions. By the time I fell asleep, Danex had 1 or 2 votes at most. When I woke up, well, they'd won,, so..

Sure, that's fair. Connie is decidedly not my strongest elim read. But I do think there's a chance, and it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

2 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

As I said last cycle, the Shaman shouldn't pass all of the Honorblades which they retrieve to one specific person, especially if that person is publically known, since the elims could simply kill them to get an easy motherlode of Honorblades. This post slightly increases my suspicions of you because it seems very elim-y overall, since you ask for the Shaman to claim to you and give you blades now that you're trusted, which would both be very helpful to the elims.

I agree that that person shouldn't give it to somebody who is known, however, I'm pretty sure the Elims can only claim one blade, which would be beneficial.

2 hours ago, Lotus said:

I agree that may be a bad idea.

On the other hand, communication is essential...

But the truthless is dead, leaving the Shaman open to attacks....

Herm.

Yes, Herm.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Lmao this is fun xD 

My elim suspect pool consists of Gears, Lotus, Experience, and Somebody from Sel. Reasons stated during N1. 

I don't like this jump on me, the main reason is a didn't bandwagon on Connie. I said this in the day, I've been trying to not bandwagon as that is appearantly elimmy, see MR46.

23 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

. 

Also, you're entirely wrong that it might have been the elims that vote-maniped because there is only one blade that adds a vote and Danex had it. The elims physically could not have vote-manipped in the way that we saw happen.

 

 

Kaladin has Gravitation, he could of changed it.

 

[Quintessential she/her]

I don't have any solid elim reads, right now, but I can provide the reads list I've mentally composed for myself (which doesn't contain everyone, since a lot of people haven't posted enough or I haven't played with them enough to be able to read them):

- Me: Village. Duh.

- Connie: Mild village, for the reasons listed above and because gut-read.

- Matrim: Mild village, because I doubt this was a WGG.

- Illwei: Strong village, though admittedly this is mostly a gut-read and based on PM reasons.

- STINK: Mild elim for general inactivity and non-contribution in the thread, and also general tone in PMs

- Gears: Null or null elim. I don't have much of a read on him, since he hasn't posted much on the thread and I don't trust my reading of him in PMs.

- Turtle: Null or null elim, for bare minimum activity--I don't remember who said it, but someone pointed out that that could be a very good elim strat.

- SfS: Null or null village. I have no idea what to make of the claim/claim-retraction of having or not having a Blade? That was weird, but not elimmy weird as far as I can tell.

- TJ: Essentially null. I need to go back and reread D1 and N1 more carefully, but since it's now not a weekend I haven't had time to do that yet.

- Alv: Chaotic neutral null elim. I still don't like his suggestion of the tie, and I'd be more willing to read Connie as elim if Alv ever turned up elim, since that's really when votes started piling up on Danex. But I'm told that this is Alv's typical playstyle, I'm not super sus of him.

3 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

Kaladin has Gravitation, he could of changed it.

First of all, Gravitation is the night action that allows you to learn someone else's target. Second of all, Kaladin's vote-manip ability is Adhesion, which removes a vote. However, the only vote-manip we saw was that someone added a vote to Danex. Only one blade can do that. So it must have been Danex, which makes perfect sense with his alignment.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Recent events have given me a few reads:

Fura: Mainly for a continued push of Condensation, partly a gut read. Pushing Connie’s lynch seems a lot like the Elims pushing for a mislynch. 

Quinn: Slight Village, is defending Connie. Also hasn’t done anything that’s caught my eye as suspicious, though I could be missing something as Day One is still extremely confusing to me.

Condensation: Village, looks they’ve either been the target of a mislynch, that was then foiled by the Truthless. Considering the Truthless win-con is to die, which endangers the Stone Shaman, I’d considered them ‘on’ the elim team and indifferent to a village mislynch.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ookla the Larkin

[Illwei]

I wake up to Two new pages. 

3 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

llwei- Slight Village for Illwei reasons. Idk what else to say...

Coolio. Whatever that means

2 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Stone Shaman, if you ever want/need to claim to someone, or need a safe target to pass blades to, I’m your guy

I second Stink's message: Don't claim to Matrim. The...agh! Matrim is...agh! I can't read him! he acted so obviously suspicious in his last Elim game 

1 hour ago, STINK said:

honourblades

Whoa whoa whoa where'd that "u" come from

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

Don't reveal to anyone

Unless it's me. Shaman, you should claim to me. Or all the Honorblade holders. Or both! that'd be cool too! any combination of those works! I mean, I'm basically locktown now, amirite? nothing to go wrong from claiming to me

3 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

Kaladin has Gravitation, he could of changed it.

Gravitation moves votes, this was an Added vote. 

--

With the whole...well, not sure I can call it the connie thing...uh...Last cycle thing?

Quinn, personally I don't see a big difference in- there wasn't a lot of reasoning to swap to danex, and Matrim being village or not- man. I can't talk well

Personally I think that- 

I- Okay. If I had the energy, then I would go back and try to find the order of votes and all that, but I stopped counting things after page 10 of D1 because that's just too much :P. 

[Quintessential she/her]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Larkin said:

Considering the Truthless win-con is to die, which endangers the Stone Shaman, I’d considered them ‘on’ the elim team and indifferent to a village mislynch.

Well, because killing the Truthless allows the Stone Shaman to die, I'm pretty sure this is worse than a typical mislynch in some ways, even though it doesn't affect parity. Also, no one knew that Danex was Truthless. So, it effectively is a mislynch for the purposes of a vote analysis.

Edit: Gravitation has nothing to do with votes @Ooklil' the Wei and since Honorblade holders can be elims, claiming to them is not a good idea for the Stone Shaman. Ideally they shouldn't have to claim at all, but if for some reason they need a mouthpiece, they should claim to someone they personally feel is trustworthy, regardless of whether that person has a Blade or is you or Matrim. Also, "honour" is the British spelling.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Condensation she/her]

4 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I wake up to Two new pages. 

Whoa whoa whoa where'd that "u" come from 

Yikes, sounds fun!

Um... so my Pi does this, it could be just Stink's natural state. But it thinks that 'honor' is wrong and 'honour' is right. Like color and colour or favorite and favourite.

[Illwei]

9 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Edit: Gravitation has nothing to do with votes @Ooklil' the Wei and since Honorblade holders can be elims, claiming to them is not a good idea for the Stone Shaman. Ideally they shouldn't have to claim at all, but if for some reason they need a mouthpiece, they should claim to someone they personally feel is trustworthy, regardless of whether that person has a Blade or is you or Matrim. Also, "honour" is the British spelling.

Oh right, cool. Okay this feels like more intentional not knowing the role from SfS. didn't they have something earlier with like, Kaladin strats or something?

Whoa Whoa I never advocated for the Shaman claiming to an Honorblade holder, just that all of them should claim to me :P.
Why can't I just bully the british in peace?
I think that claiming to me would be fun. sure, you'd probably die, just think of what fun we could have trying to figure out who has what blade!

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Unless it's me. Shaman, you should claim to me. Or all the Honorblade holders.

 

Just now, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Whoa Whoa I never advocated for the Shaman claiming to an Honorblade holder, just that all of them should claim to me :P.

Uhhh well it sure looks like you did? Did you mean all the blade holders should claim to you?

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

3 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Oh right, cool. Okay this feels like more intentional not knowing the role from SfS. didn't they have something earlier with like, Kaladin strats or something?

Whoa Whoa I never advocated for the Shaman claiming to an Honorblade holder, just that all of them should claim to me :P.
Why can't I just bully the british in peace?
I think that claiming to me would be fun. sure, you'd probably die, just think of what fun we could have trying to figure out who has what blade!

I read your post the same way Quinn did for the record. Lol

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Yikes, sounds fun!

Um... so my Pi does this, it could be just Stink's natural state. But it thinks that 'honor' is wrong and 'honour' is right. Like color and colour or favorite and favourite.

Some people here are annoying and insist on speaking correct English like that. Smh

Edited December 8, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Illwei]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Uhhh well it sure looks like you did? Did you mean all the blade holders should claim to you?

oh yeah that's definitely what I mean. They should all claim to me

You know, it wouldn't hurt if anyone else decided to claim to me too, I mean: Kaladin, Szeth, other neutral roles, your secrets are safe with me :P. 

[Eternum he/him]

8 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Whoa whoa whoa where'd that "u" come from

Great Britain.

10 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Unless it's me. Shaman, you should claim to me. Or all the Honorblade holders. Or both! that'd be cool too! any combination of those works! I mean, I'm basically locktown now, amirite? nothing to go wrong from claiming to me

Gravitation moves votes, this was an Added vote. 

--

With the whole...well, not sure I can call it the connie thing...uh...Last cycle thing?

Quinn, personally I don't see a big difference in- there wasn't a lot of reasoning to swap to danex, and Matrim being village or not- man. I can't talk well

Personally I think that- 

I- Okay. If I had the energy, then I would go back and try to find the order of votes and all that, but I stopped counting things after page 10 of D1 because that's just too much :P. 

Nnnnno? You aren't?  Honestly, though, I wonder who'd take you up on that. And, I'll admit, I read it like Fura and Quinn dit at first Honorblade holders, go claim to Illwei. Why not. If we see some oddly targeted kills, we'll know who it is!

I'm.. trying to get a summary of D1 finished, as sort of a promise. I... suppose I'll try and do that for you. It's, well, essentially just what I'm doing anyway.

14 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Well, because killing the Truthless allows the Stone Shaman to die, I'm pretty sure this is worse than a typical mislynch in some ways, even though it doesn't affect parity. Also, no one knew that Danex was Truthless. So, it effectively is a mislynch for the purposes of a vote analysis.

Edit: Gravitation has nothing to do with votes @Ooklil' the Wei and since Honorblade holders can be elims, claiming to them is not a good idea for the Stone Shaman. Ideally they shouldn't have to claim at all, but if for some reason they need a mouthpiece, they should claim to someone they personally feel is trustworthy, regardless of whether that person has a Blade or is you or Matrim. Also, "honour" is the British spelling.

Agreed on the Truthless, I think I mentioned that earlier.

We don't actually know if elims can start with Honorblades, I'd like to note. You seem fairly certain about it, too..