Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Condensation she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I said them in D1 if you want to look... or at least I think I did. I'll make a reads list later and that should be in there more complete.

There's a difference between being a good elim and shamelessly pocketting a new player that you're friends with from another part of the Shard :P. Thanks, though.

Is there really that much of a difference, though? I don't feel like there is.

[Illwei]

6 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

There's a difference between being a good elim and shamelessly pocketting a new player that you're friends with from another part of the Shard :P. Thanks, though.

There's a difference between being a good Elim and Shamelessly bussing all of your teammates to survive

@Ookla's Dice @Ookla the Shadowed Can you give some reasonings? 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Experience he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

There's a difference between being a good Elim and Shamelessly bussing all of your teammates to survive

Well. You see. I have played in at least one game where a very good elim shamelessly bussed all of their teammates and won. *cough cough Araris(I think) cough cough*

EDIT: 

3 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

There's a difference between being a good Elim and Shamelessly bussing all of your teammates to survive

@Ookla's Dice @Ookla the Shadowed Can you give some reasonings? 

They voted on me. And also we're having some fun PM stuff going on so... that is very most likely going to change.  

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ookla the Shadowed

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Shadowed said:

Well. You see. I have played in at least one game where a very good elim shamelessly bussed all of their teammates and won. *cough cough Araris(I think) cough cough*

Ahh, right. I would be that good, if only I could Shamelessly bus. Unfortunately, I didn't manage to bus you after vapor, having felt so bad for bussing vapor so early. let me just...change my post...to "shamefully" ...

EDIT: also, reasoning for voting Matrim? Is it just because he voted you? because it's not D1 anymore, so that's not any sort of Valid reasoning.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Experience he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Ahh, right. I would be that good, if only I could Shamelessly bus. Unfortunately, I didn't manage to bus you after vapor, having felt so bad for bussing vapor so early. let me just...change my post...to "shamefully" ...

EDIT: also, reasoning for voting Matrim? Is it just because he voted you? because it's not D1 anymore, so that's not any sort of Valid reasoning.

I mean, partly, but not really. You can expect me to change it today.

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Ahh, right. I would be that good, if only I could Shamelessly bus. Unfortunately, I didn't manage to bus you after vapor, having felt so bad for bussing vapor so early. let me just...change my post...to "shamefully" ...

EDIT: also, reasoning for voting Matrim? Is it just because he voted you? because it's not D1 anymore, so that's not any sort of Valid reasoning.

Come on people, we're looking for Valid reasoning with a capital V!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Shadowed said:

Well. You see. I have played in at least one game where a very good elim shamelessly bussed all of their teammates and won. *cough cough Araris(I think) cough cough*

I only actually bussed Ash in LG69. I did put the rest of my team on my suspicion list (and then proceeded to vote for the only villager on said list), but that isn’t quite bussing.

For now I’m going to vote on Condensation/Grammatical. I’ll try and do a thorough reread of a few folks’ posts, but I definitely wa still suspicious of Connie by the end of last cycle.

Actually, hold that. I’m voting for Quinn.

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

Well... thank you Chanarach or Vedel, first of all.

This is a pretty clear instance of Thanking the Doctor, which is a common elim tell.

[Experience he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

I only actually bussed Ash in LG69. I did put the rest of my team on my suspicion list (and then proceeded to vote for the only villager on said list), but that isn’t quite bussing.

For now I’m going to vote on Condensation/Grammatical. I’ll try and do a thorough reread of a few folks’ posts, but I definitely wa still suspicious of Connie by the end of last cycle.

Actually, hold that. I’m voting for Quinn.

This is a pretty clear instance of Thanking the Doctor, which is a common elim tell.

Man I'm jumping around. This post is for some reason ringing bells like crazy for me, and I think that is a pretty good reason to vote for you cause I can't ever get a read on you... Araris.

[Illwei]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

This is a pretty clear instance of Thanking the Doctor, which is a common elim tell.

I would call this more "Thanking the Communications Guy" because Chanarach is Abrasion/Division. Slightly makes me read Araris more village for making this mistake. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm not sure about the reference to Chanarach, but Vedel gives progression and was almost certainly responsible for the blocked kill.

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure about the reference to Chanarach, but Vedel gives progression and was almost certainly responsible for the blocked kill.

Oh... I'm pretty sure Quinn was thanking them for opening PM's cause they can both do that.

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure about the reference to Chanarach, but Vedel gives progression and was almost certainly responsible for the blocked kill.

Isn't there more than one Progression blade? And Gears told Chanarach to do Day and Vedel to do Night, which makes it seem more unlikely to me. Why not do it then and make sure that you won't be overlapping? Wait, if two people do Abrasion then does it open PMs for longer? Like, both Vedel and Chanarach do Abrasion during the night?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Shadowed said:

Oh... I'm pretty sure Quinn was thanking them for opening PM's cause they can both do that.

This makes more sense. I didn't make the connection that those two give Abrasion. I think I would also have expected someone thanking for PMs to post during the Night turn. Anyway, I guess I'll move from Quinn to Grammatical.

[+Lotus she/her]

Ok... hmm. 
 

Well I feel like Mat is obviously somewhat cleared unless the Elims are being very tricky.

 

[+JesterLavorre she/they]

Oh, no. Not this again *MR46 flashbacks*.

Anyway, looking back, I feel like the Connie train was possibly an attempt by the elims to get Connie lynched, and they pulled out later to not look suspicious. That's just my gut feeling looking back at last cycle, and it explains so many people (including myself) reading Connie as village.

Why are people voting Lotus? Did I miss something?

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Well I feel like Mat is obviously somewhat cleared unless the Elims are being very tricky.

They're not :P. I have no clue who protected me.

[Condensation she/her]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

This makes more sense. I didn't make the connection that those two give Abrasion. I think I would also have expected someone thanking for PMs to post during the Night turn. Anyway, I guess I'll move from Quinn to Grammatical.

Do you have reasoning? It's nice when people post reasoning with their votes because then I can start to... is ruminate the right word there? Yes, it is. ... even if I have to get off of the computer.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

My reasoning is that I was suspicious of you last cycle and not very much has changed. I didn't like the tone of your posts. Maybe I'm confusing with someone else, but it might have been that you were too quick to read someone as village. 

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

My reasoning is that I was suspicious of you last cycle and not very much has changed. I didn't like the tone of your posts. Maybe I'm confusing with someone else, but it might have been that you were too quick to read someone as village. 

Um... I haven't said any reads, unless it was offhand. Plenty of other people have said that they read people as village.

[He who goes DORIYAH!! he/him]

How do you make a PM in a group?

Wait, I poked around a bit and I think I figured it out

 

edit: sorry for the double-post didn't understand what that was until now.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ookla who goes DORIYAH!!

[Condensation she/her]

No double posting, please! You can edit your posts, by the way.

[Eternum he/him]

First off, and you know who you are, thanks /s

Second, I'd be amenable to voting Lotus, Experience or Quinn. I still think it's really weird how the lynch moved from Condensation to Danex (huge props to Danex, for the record, that was fantastic), but I have less of an elim read on them.

Third, well, this is a pretty good outcome! It could absolutely be a WGG but after my PMs with Mat I'm inclined to trust him.

3 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Um... I haven't said any reads, unless it was offhand. Plenty of other people have said that they read people as village.

I think Araris might be referring to you defending Gears? Not sure myself.

EDIT: I would also like to note something I just realized: the elims probably wanted to kill Mat so that the originator of the Danex lynch flipped village and there was less suspicion on the train. I believe it's the weirder of the two trains, and now I'm certain there are elims in it. Of course, I might be completely wrong.

Sidenote, I think the Danex lynch should essentially be considered as a villager lynch for all intents and purposes. The elims wanted them gone anyway.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Eternum

[+JesterLavorre she/they]

19 minutes ago, Eternum said:

EDIT: I would also like to note something I just realized: the elims probably wanted to kill Mat so that the originator of the Danex lynch flipped village and there was less suspicion on the train. I believe it's the weirder of the two trains, and now I'm certain there are elims in it. Of course, I might be completely wrong.

This is an interesting thought. Maybe I’ll re-examine some of the people who voted Danex.

[Illwei]

5 hours ago, Ookla the Sprinkle said:

Why are people voting Lotus? Did I miss something?

People aren't voting lotus, it's just me, and that feels like a slight overreaction to me. 

6 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Isn't there more than one Progression blade?

I'm going to take this as someone who is unsure and bows to the superior knowledge of someone who reads the rules better than themselves. Which...doesn't sound like you from what I've seen...but oh well. we'll just go with that, as I don't wanna waste a day discussing you again. 

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

I would also like to note something I just realized: the elims probably wanted to kill Mat so that the originator of the Danex lynch flipped village and there was less suspicion on the train. I believe it's the weirder of the two trains, and now I'm certain there are elims in it. Of course, I might be completely wrong.

How specific this is worries me. I think I get why have been suspicious of me for theorizing Elim strats before, because I would never have thought of something like this. I'd assume that if an Elim thought of this, and wasn't just picking semi-randomly out of a pool of TJ, Araris, Matrim, Experience, and possibly gears, then that makes me think that they're an old/experienced player. Other than that, slight paranoia that it was a WGG. What are you sarcastically thanking someone for? taking Pailiah's blade from you?

5 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Do you have reasoning? It's nice when people post reasoning with their votes because then I can start to... is ruminate the right word there? Yes, it is

If your goal of asking for reasoning is to be able to consider/think about it, then you should be asking about every vote without reasoning, not just the ones on you. Asking just about the ones on you implies that the reason isn't that, but to defend yourself. Not something individually suspicious, but off-putting to me because that's not what you're saying. 

[Eternum he/him]

21 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

 How specific this is worries me. I think I get why have been suspicious of me for theorizing Elim strats before, because I would never have thought of something like this. I'd assume that if an Elim thought of this, and wasn't just picking semi-randomly out of a pool of TJ, Araris, Matrim, Experience, and possibly gears, then that makes me think that they're an old/experienced player. Other than that, slight paranoia that it was a WGG. What are you sarcastically thanking someone for? taking Pailiah's blade from you?

If your goal of asking for reasoning is to be able to consider/think about it, then you should be asking about every vote without reasoning, not just the ones on you. Asking just about the ones on you implies that the reason isn't that, but to defend yourself. Not something individually suspicious, but off-putting to me because that's not what you're saying. 

It was just a random theory that popped in my mind as I was considering what you said in our PM and the way Mat hesitated when the Danex lynch started building last cycle. I was trying to see if there was anything to gain by trying to reverse-engineer the elim psychology, realized quickly that doesn't get us anywhere, and then had this theory. And it could obviously be wrong, but I think it's worth thinking about.

Why that specific pool of people, out of curiosity?

Why do you ask? Why do you care?

Good point on vote reasoning. I've noticed multiple people only caring about vote justification when they're the one being voted, which feels hypocritical.