Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Illwei]

37 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Why do you not want to kill Connie or Gears, Illwei?

Because I'm getting worried and paranoid. did I mention I don't like killing people? Yeah, something I need to get over, of course, but -

I was planning on looking through and trying to find someone else I found suspicious but I've now waited too long :P. 

I can't read Connie, and though there are differences in her playstyle, there have also been differences between the past three games, which I pointed out in the past three games. my problem with that though is she didn't acknowledge that this game: she just said that she was playing this game differently than the last three. (even though, as I said, she wasn't playing the same in those three).

That's why I'm not sure. 

She seems to be hyper-aware of her changes, which is concerning
She talked as if she played the past three games the same, which she didn't

She was different in each of those games, and so that might mean her being different means nothing
I definitely felt like I had to play down my stress when people were voting on me (er, something I think I abandoned possibly. possibly not) so her 'acting' isn't exactly AI, kinda. 

23 minutes ago, Gears said:

Because I dislike your playstyle, I instinctively increase my suspicion on you.

Likewise. While you think I don't say enough, I think you speak too much. you say so many words it constantly worries me that you're hiding something in them.

23 minutes ago, Gears said:

I want you to work on explaining your actions before doing them and ensuring clear communication. 

Oof you can want that. 

When I used to explain myself people would use it against me. I'm not going to change my playstyle because people find it suspicious, as I have already done that and people still find me suspicious. I'm not going to play how you would, or how Araris would, or how Connie would. In addition to that, it's D1. I shouldn't need reasoning for a vote placed in the beginning of D1, (even though I did somewhat). If I do this again at lylo (or like any cycle where there's actual evidence) feel free to yell at me. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Quintessential she/her]

Hmmm come to think of it, would it be a terrible idea to create a tie between two of the people that have fallen under general suspicion on purpose, and ask the village not to interfere? Only one of them would die, and since we don't have any information on any of them, I don't think there's any solid objection to leaving it up to RNG. It's likely we would kill a villager this way, but it's also likely that we would anyway, so that's not really a fair objection.

Also, this way, so long as all of the villagers agree not to interfere, we can catch any elims who try to. If no elims interfere, then we don't necessarily get any info out of it, but we also have a higher chance of lynching an elim if there's one in the group at all.

If they do interfere, and then we'll know there's an elim in the group and it will allow us to narrow our search.

Then again, this is a total impossibility since I can't see a universe in which all of us agree to do this, but... well... it was a thought anyway.

[Illwei]

21 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

 Illwei is always more sus, so this doesn't actually say much. The fact that she's not trying to avoid suspicion makes me think she's village, though admittedly I've never played with her as elim so I can't speak to whether she does try then.

If you want an example of me as an Elim then QF46 or LG69 are there for you to look through :P. ...QF46 might be...different...so not the best one to look at :P. 

19 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Illwei is only sus for unvoting Connie if Connie flips elim

I- So I can't really self-meta or something here, because no one listens to that sorta stuff, (:P) but if I was an elim, knowing that if connie was an Elim and me backing off would look suspicious, I would stay on, not wanting to seem suspicious :P. (this is what happened to Vapor :P)

EDIT:

5 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

would it be a terrible idea to create a tie between two of the people that have fallen under general suspicion on purpose,

yes :P.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Who do you suspect? Personally I think there is a somewhat likely world right now where you and Condensation are both elims.

I mildly suspect Danex. Their retraction of Condensation felt a bit opportune. However, I often suspect those who post a lot without saying much. My D1 analysis is terrible.

4 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Hmmm come to think of it, would it be a terrible idea to create a tie between two of the people that have fallen under general suspicion on purpose, and ask the village not to interfere? Only one of them would die, and since we don't have any information on any of them, I don't think there's any solid objection to leaving it up to RNG. It's likely we would kill a villager this way, but it's also likely that we would anyway, so that's not really a fair objection.

The elims could tamper with the vote to ensure a mislynch on the person they save.

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Gears said:

I mildly suspect Danex. Their retraction of Condensation felt a bit opportune. However, I often suspect those who post a lot without saying much. My D1 analysis is terrible.

The elims could tamper with the vote to ensure a mislynch on the person they save.

Ah, fair enough... I forgot to consider the possibility that everyone we're suspecting is village... 

[Illwei]

Just now, Gears said:

I mildly suspect Danex. Their retraction of Condensation felt a bit opportune. However, I often suspect those who post a lot without saying much. My D1 analysis is terrible.

I agree with this, especially with them choosing to switch onto me then. Though it wouldn't make sense to me, unless Danex/Connie was e/e, and that doesn't make sense because Danex joined the initial train on Connie when they really didn't have to. 

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

7 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Ah, fair enough... I forgot to consider the possibility that everyone we're suspecting is village... 

Hmmm lol

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

Hmmm lol

It would work if we were reasonably certain that one of two people was elim, but not which... I wish I'd thought of this back in MR46, when I wasn't sure which of Gears or Reading was elim...

[Mat he/him]

17 minutes ago, Gears said:

I mildly suspect Danex. Their retraction of Condensation felt a bit opportune. However, I often suspect those who post a lot without saying much. My D1 analysis is terrible.

 

15 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I agree with this, especially with them choosing to switch onto me then. Though it wouldn't make sense to me, unless Danex/Connie was e/e, and that doesn't make sense because Danex joined the initial train on Connie when they really didn't have to. 

I'm voting on Danex for this reason. I think elim!Danex saw the Connie train and thought it would be easy enough and then backpedaled when he realized how it made him look, maybe after reading when I said that I would be sus of bandwagoners. If I could get you two, @Ookla the Araris Valerian, and @TJ Shade to switch to Danex I'm much more comfortable with that lynch.

~~Totally switching gears here for a minute~~

Say Connie does flip elim. Where would I stand?

• I'd probably still suspect Danex a little. Not as much, but a little.
• My suspicion of SfS would jump considerably. This is a huge stretch and just my paranoia, but SfS is a major bandwagoner when if comes to votes and I'm honestly shocked they haven't voted Connie yet. Also, I've seen them ask/say things about roles they have in thread, which reminds me of what they did with Kaladin earlier. So yeah, I'm sus of Kaladin!SfS, added by elim!Connie even if I don't view the second as likely.

[Quintessential she/her]

13 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I'm voting on Danex for this reason. I think elim!Danex saw the Connie train and thought it would be easy enough and then backpedaled when he realized how it made him look, maybe after reading when I said that I would be sus of bandwagoners. If I could get you two, @Ookla the Araris Valerian, and @TJ Shade to switch to Danex I'm much more comfortable with that lynch.

I... great, now I'm starting to wonder whether I should be voting Danex... did they ever give an explanation for removing their vote from Connie? 

Edit: Nevermind, looking back at Danex's vote and subsequent vote retraction on Connie, they actually had the exact same reasoning in both cases that I did. So I can't really be sus of them for that. The difference is that now they've switched their vote to Illwei, which... well, I don't agree with it, but I'd say it's understandable under the circumstances. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Illwei]

Gears - I always read him suspicious. I was hoping that after his Elim game I would be able to trust him more, but a combination of mechanics and me dying D1 made it hard to see anything on him. I think I have ideas, but I'll have to wait. Him not posting often isn't AI for him, especially because he had his debate thing (wait, is that still going on? how's it going so far/How'd it go?) but he has been posting less ideas and more responses.

Illwei - Now the problem here is the whole TWTBAW thing. I'm always reading people as TWTBAW and I'm wrong, and I realized it's because of my playstyle. I don't try to be village normally unless I'm an Elim, so I end up being read as Elim when I'm village and village when I'm an Elim (though I have only had one Elim game here, it has happened elsewhere, so I'm just going to call it a pattern.) and then I'm always wrong about them because sane people want to act village always. 

Quinn - hey seem to be thinking out loud a lot, so I'm inclined to read them village. though they have done a lot of "Elim slips" I don't think that that's something they would do as an Elim, so, yeah. I'm going to have to wait for more I guess, as she's been talking a lot. (I think this is due to the lack of PMs right now :P.) Nothing she has said has been strictly village, but- see here we are on TWTBAW again. She's slipping, which doesn't seem like something Quinn would do, which means she's probably not trying to act village, meaning she's probably village, ya know?

Matrim - So I can't really ever read Matrim- looking through past games I think I marked him suspicious every time. I haven't seen anything said by him that's been sooooo village, and he hasn't talked much at all in comparision to how he usually is. (school?) so those are two points against him for now. On one hand I could listen to him about reading me village, but on the other hand...he could be trying to pocket me because he thinks I know his tells. or something. idk. would make more sense to kill me off though. idk. I mean, he is acting differently from when I was elims with him....

Danex - Danex doesn't seem to be acting like Danex at all tbh. there might be outside things that are causing this, but usually Danex is very talkative and debate...a...tive...and has a strong opinion. Here, they just did a whole flippy floppy follow the crowd thing. the only problem, as I stated before, the whole flipping from connie to me thing makes little sense to me, coming from Elim!Danex

Sfs - Sfs hasn't really talked a lot, and tbh I don't remember how they were in the other games...They were pretty loud in the other games, but I'm not so sure they haven't been in this game. Though, by the fact that I can't remember if they have been or not, they probably aren't. So my main point against SfS is that they aren't as memorable as they have been in past games with them.

Araris - I got nothing for Araris. Never do. there's nothing I can think about for Araris until later cycles. They seem to be village from their posts so far, but again, I...can't Araris....

TJ - TJ defended connie and threw shaded almost everyone on her train, but then....marked them village in his reads...don't know what to do with this, as they haven't said much of anything else, and probably won't until night.      

XP - I don't think XP is being very suspicious. I can see a situation in where XP was hard defending a villager because he knew they were village, but again, I have done the same to gears because they die D1 so often. it also doesn't feel like something Elim!XP would do, so if XP flips Elim then Gears is more suspicious in my mind. 

Books - I agree with Matrim about that one books post that screams village. I don't think that they've said much else, but that post is enough for me to put them at the top of my list for now. might change later of course, but just something I don't see the point in an Elim pointing out. They were pretty good in their first Elim game though, so... :P.

Lotus - In their one post they try and shade me for...posting a lot? which is something I do normally. Don't understand it, and it...doesn't feel like lotus to me. Lotus is usually someone who posts a lot of posts but doesn't say a lot, and them not doing that this time, (when I've sussed them for it before) doesn't feel right to me. Might be external things, (and how long this thread is....) though.

Connie - Thoughts said earlier. I'm not going to recap them but I guess I'lll just:

53 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

though there are differences in her playstyle, there have also been differences between the past three games, which I pointed out in the past three games. my problem with that though is she didn't acknowledge that this game: she just said that she was playing this game differently than the last three. (even though, as I said, she wasn't playing the same in those three).

That's why I'm not sure. 

She seems to be hyper-aware of her changes, which is concerning
She talked as if she played the past three games the same, which she didn't

She was different in each of those games, and so that might mean her being different means nothing
I definitely felt like I had to play down my stress when people were voting on me (er, something I think I abandoned possibly. possibly not) so her 'acting' isn't exactly AI, kinda. 

Stink - Elim read. Might change. Who knows. 

Jester - They are actually saying things, unlike their last elim game. this makes me want to read them village, because they didn't neccessarily need to say anything: they got away well enough without it last time. then again they did only say one thing. so who knows. 

Alvron - I've only been in one game with Alvron, and they weren't very active (or at least not as much as this game so far) so I'm not sure about them. Their encouragement of gears doesn't seem suspicious to me (apparently like it did to TJ), but like someone encouraging a newer player to keep doing things. not AI, just a thought.

Eternum - They've been active, and somewhat in the conversation when they could ahve just ignored it. Either e/e with connie or v/v with connie Imo. there's no need for an Elim to engage in a v/v debate, so the fact that they did makes me read them...well, it depends on the flip. the only problem with that is their recent vote on connie, which makes no sense if I follow that logic. So- I guess it could also be v/e with connie flipping Elim. More suspicion on him from me if she flips Elim. 

Fura - They've been somewhat in the connie/Illwei debate, but not to the extent Eternum has, and not sure if...they're trying...to pocket...me...

[Quintessential she/her]

8 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Quinn - hey seem to be thinking out loud a lot, so I'm inclined to read them village. though they have done a lot of "Elim slips" I don't think that that's something they would do as an Elim, so, yeah. I'm going to have to wait for more I guess, as she's been talking a lot. (I think this is due to the lack of PMs right now :P.) Nothing she has said has been strictly village, but- see here we are on TWTBAW again. She's slipping, which doesn't seem like something Quinn would do, which means she's probably not trying to act village, meaning she's probably village, ya know?

First of all, thank you for saying that you don't think slipping is a thing I would do? I think that's a compliment? 

Second of all, what does TWTBAW mean? lol 

And third of all, how am I slipping exactly? I mean. Like. I literally have no clue how I seem to the other people playing this game right now lol

Edit: also yes, I'm talking a lot because no PMs. Someone please open PMs. Please. for my sake and everyone else's XD

Edited December 6, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Matrim - So I can't really ever read Matrim- looking through past games I think I marked him suspicious every time. I haven't seen anything said by him that's been sooooo village, and he hasn't talked much at all in comparision to how he usually is. (school?) so those are two points against him for now. On one hand I could listen to him about reading me village, but on the other hand...he could be trying to pocket me because he thinks I know his tells. or something. idk. would make more sense to kill me off though. idk. I mean, he is acting differently from when I was elims with him....

School is a thing, and will affect my activity a bit, but it'll stay about what it is now. I was busy yesterday, true, but honestly I like the level of activity I'm achieving. It's less than when I first joined but I think that's just me maturing as a player enough not to reply to every post ever posted.

If you do know my tells, which... I don't know my tells... then you would know, right? I mean I shouldn't be showing the tells if they're accurate, cause I'm not an elim, but I don't know what they are or even if you do...

And I wasn't ever elims with you either and at this point I figure it's purposefully a joke but idk!  

Also, uh, what's TWTBAW? (ninja'd)

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

TWTBAW

to wolfy to be a wolf. like- you slipping is suspicious, but it's too obviously suspicious for you actually to be an Elim :P.

welp, I mean it's just you saying suspicious things/theories and not realizing that it's a completely Elim theory and then you being like "oops right whoops I forgot"

Like- that's very suspicious. I just- yeah.

EDIT:

Just now, Ookla's Dice said:

And I wasn't ever elims with you either and at this point I figure it's purposefully a joke but idk!  

Forgot the ":P" at the end of it, yeah it was a joke :P. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

to wolfy to be a wolf. like- you slipping is suspicious, but it's too obviously suspicious for you actually to be an Elim :P.

welp, I mean it's just you saying suspicious things/theories and not realizing that it's a completely Elim theory and then you being like "oops right whoops I forgot"

Like- that's very suspicious. I just-

Oh that, yeah... XD I guess that is kinda sus now that I think about it. I would say I'll try not to be so sus in the future, but given that my being sus is what makes you think I'm village in the first place, maybe I should just keep not thinking things through? 

Also, I know this doesn't help my case but you realize that the next time I'm elim I'm going to do exactly what I'm doing this game and what I did last game, right? Except my excessive use of PMs will be to pocket people, not to gain info oof

Edit: yeah, come to think of it Matrim is acting differently from when I was elims with him; and I can actually say that seriously lol

Edited December 6, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Also, I know this doesn't help my case but you realize that the next time I'm elim I'm going to do exactly what I'm doing this game and what I did last game, right? Except my excessive use of PMs will be to pocket people, not to gain info oof

Well, I hope you realize that you're not doing the same things you did last game. 

[Quintessential she/her]

4 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Well, I hope you realize that you're not doing the same things you did last game. 

Well, sure, not exactly the same. But I bet I could get one of my fellow elims to pretend to totally pocket me  

Edit: Ah I misread that post. I thought you meant I won't be able to do things exactly the same the next time I'm an elim... Yes I realize I'm not doing things the same as last game. Partially because of the lack of PMs (also last time I had a role and actual elim reads on a couple of people)

Edited December 6, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Illwei]

So I don't know who said it, was it connie? Who asked "is this Illwei's normal playstyle" in reference to me seemingly random voting? I know a villager could ask that, but the last two times I was asked that it was Elims who wanted to start a vote on me without starting a vote on me. 

[Quintessential she/her]

7 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

So I don't know who said it, was it connie? Who asked "is this Illwei's normal playstyle" in reference to me seemingly random voting? I know a villager could ask that, but the last two times I was asked that it was Elims who wanted to start a vote on me without starting a vote on me. 

I tried to go back and find it (I thought for sure it existed 'cause I thought I remembered responding to it with "yes, it is") but I didn't see anything... though granted, I did skim quite a bit

[Flyingbooks]

I don't feel like Gears or Connie is an elim. Of the two, Connie feels a little bit more suspicious, but not by much. I'm going to read through people's posts and comple my overall thoughts about each person who's posted a few times but not too many since I'm too lazy & have too little time to reread all of the posts of the super-active people.

Gears: There's very little in their posts compared to how much people have been discussing them. A role analysis post at the beginning is apparently normal for them and after that their only post after that was pretty much just noting that their role analysis was inaccurate. The inaccurate roles analysis actually made me less suspicious of them because basic role analysis is something that an elim could easily do to get village cred without giving too much to the village, but anything that's suggested that's bad for the village would probably be noticed pretty easily and found suspicious & heavily discussed (as happened here). An elim would be more invested in not wanting so much negative attention and would probably pay more attention and any bad advice would probably be more subtle than a misreading of the rules. Overall null, leaning village.

Danex: Hypothesized about the secret roles, voted Connie because she's less defensive than usual, unvoted her because she explained that she's calmer because she doesn't have a special role. None of those seem alignment-indicative to me, so I'm reading them as null. (Update: after reading the most recent post (as of the writing of this update) by Matrim, Danex's retraction may have also been a backpedal to make hiim look like less of a bandwagoner. This makes me read him as on the elim-y side of null, so while he is not my top elim guess, I'd be willing to join a vote on him because I'm more suspicious of him than of Connie, Illwei, or Gears)

Somebody: Claimed elim, suggested giving all of the Honorblades to one person, would prefer an Illwei lynch to a Connie lynch. Claiming elim is NAI, though some people thought that it seemed village-y for some reason, which I don't really understand. If they had suggested the Honorblade dump as something that should be done, I would be very suspicious of them, but they suggested it as a thought and asked for criticism, which makes me less suspicious that they're an elim trying to get the Honorblades more easily. Overall null, if I had to choose which way they lean I'd say elim.

Araris: Says that the Truthless shouldn't claim Stone Shaman. (pretty much NAI, but leans a teeny bit village) Votes Experience because they said something that feels villager-y without actually saying anything. (feels slightly village to me, but not very) Says that it's very bad to lynch the Truthless. (NAI) Says that the elims have won a lot because there have been many low-activity, low-analysis players who are reluctant to vote. (NAI) Says that using role speculation as the reason for voting is a bad idea & that the D1 lynch only needs to threaten peole, not actually kill anybody. (Feels NAI to me) Says that the best part about being an elim is killing people. (NAI) Overall null, but if I had to choose which way they lean I'd say a village. However, somebody more experienced would probably be able to get more out of their posts, since I'm not very good at noticing subtle indications yet.

TJ: Votes Gears because they suggested that the Shaman reveal themselves, which would let the elims kill them immediately after the Truthless dies (pretty much NAI, but leans a teeny bit village). Wonders why Matrim read Somebody as village after they claimed elim. (pretty much NAI, but leans a teeny bit village) Reads STINK as village because they acted the same in a past village game. Reads Devotary, Illwei, Araris, myself, and Quinn as village-leaning, leans not-village on Alvron, Connie, Gears, and Danex. Overall, his posts aren't very alignment-indicative to me, but I'm gut-reading him as village.

Experience: Says that gears claims elim every game, and later that Gears claimed elim this game, then that they had misread Gears' post. They haven't really said anything that would be alignment-indicative, though Araris did think that they were suspicious because they posted without really adding anything, but I don't think there's enough information yet to judge. Overall, null.

Devotary: Says that there's no need to give the elims advice for how to use Gravitation, that Chanaranach and Vedel might not both be villagers, and that Nightblood could kill the Shaman even before the Truthless dies. Doubts that the elims started with Chanaranach's blade and says that Kaladin shouldn't falseclaim Ishar's Blade because the Shaman could tell. Gives an example possibility for a special role's win-con. Overall, I'm gut-reading them as mild village.

Lotus: Said that they don't have many thoughts, Doesn't want Illwei voted out but is a bit suspicious due to lots of posting. Other people have already said that posting just to say they don't have many thoughts is a bit strange and suspicious, and I agree. Listing their suspicions of Illwei as being because of lots of posting is very strange and feels like an excuse. Overall, reads as slight elim.

Alvron: Says that claiming Shaman is not a good idea since the elims want the shaman to be dead. Says that they like the big Gears role analysis posts, that Devotary turns out evil when they are read as village D1, that they often "give off neutral vibes," that we should always discuss D1 lynches, that players should give their estimated role distributions, and that they rarely read the rules before the game. Says that both having too few people vote and having everybody, no matter what, vote can both be helpful to the elims.

 

The people who posted a lot who I have fairly solid reads on but don't want to reread all of the posts of:

Connie: It feels like people are tunneling too much on her. This all started with a "be more careful" which got blown out of proportion. She's explained why she's more calm than usual, why she started the D1 lynch discussion, etc. to a degree when but many people are still on her.

Illwei: She feels sort of suspicious to me, but other more experienced people have said that she usually plays like this, so I guess I'll trust them. I'm still a tiny bit suspicious, though.

Quinn: I'm not going to through all of her posts, but overall, she's giving me village vibes.

 

This is my first big analysis post concluded. These take such a long time. I might have missed a few people & a few posts since I'm doing this in the middle of other stuff and this was started a while ago. I probably won't be able to be here much until after turnover because I still have tons of physics homework which I should definitely stop procrastinating on. 

My biggest elim read is Lotus, but I'd be willing to switch to Danex if others do because I'd rather Danex get lynched than Connie.

 

41 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Books - I agree with Matrim about that one books post that screams village. I don't think that they've said much else, but that post is enough for me to put them at the top of my list for now. might change later of course, but just something I don't see the point in an Elim pointing out. They were pretty good in their first Elim game though, so... :P.

You really think I did well in my first Elim game? Thanks!

 

@Ookla the Grammatical Sorry that I said that I'd be able to RP but never actually did. I underestimated the amount of homework that I had.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Flyingbooks42

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I might have missed a few people & a few posts

*cries*

It's fine  

(Again- anyone willing to join me on Danex?)

(I admit Connie will give good info on more people though. I just don't think she's an elim.)

[Flyingbooks]

Just now, Ookla's Dice said:

*cries*

It's fine  

(Again- anyone willing to join me on Danex?)

(I admit Connie will give good info on more people though. I just don't think she's an elim.)

Sorry for not including you. I don't really have any concrete reads on you and I don't want to reread the entire thread, so the only very-active people who I wrote about are the ones who I have a clear image of. I guess I'll go off of Lotus and onto Danex for the reasons which I said in my previous post and because I want my vote to actually matter (Danex is a lynch which I think has a higher chance of succeeding than Lotus)

[Illwei]

So, Danex ISO (not that this will actually tell me much, but It'll make it easier for others too. :P)

First post: 

Spoiler

On 12/5/2020 at 0:47 AM, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

Belatedly adding a RP character: Dtham-son-Havam.

Dtham, like many others, had heard of the plan proposed by Radek-son-Jhoun. Switching the honorblades among them? A dangerous move. However, Dtham would accept this duty with dignity were it to come upon him.

Yay I’m here now. This game is gonna be fun!  I don’t have a ton to say, haven’t analyzed much yet, but I did notice this in the starting RP:

I think this is Ash hinting at the 2 secret roles. We have three groups here, the “large group” is presumably the Elims, while the 2 other factions could represent the secret roles. 
I’ll be calling them The Strangler and the Vanisher, until we have a better idea of what they are. I think it’s safe to say that the 2 secret roles are against the village, as in the RP they are attacking the Shin. I think The Strangler might be some form of Awakener, (Awakened rope?) so maybe it’s worth looking at past games Ash has been in with an Awakener role? See what those abilities were? No idea about the Vanisher though. Surge of Transportation radiant? Jasnah? 
 

Obviously this is all assuming that this wasn’t just meaningless flavor text. It very well might be. 

Speculation about secret roles. not exactly AI in my opinion, but not something that might be at the top of a villager's to-do list. then again, the top of my to-do list in LG71 was finding out who the Hemalurgists were :P. Danex does comment that they think the roles are anti-village, so that's maybe why they're thinking it, but idk how they arrived at that conclusion? could possibly show some form of TMI from elims, but this is a stretch here.

Also a soft claim and a like "trust me if you need to give away your honorblades" in the form of RP. 

Post 2:

Spoiler

On 12/5/2020 at 0:49 PM, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

I can get behind a D1 Connie lynch. I agree, it seems like she is acting a bit different from previous games. As someone who’s tunneled on Connie before, (sry about that btw) I don’t think she’s being anywhere near as defensive as she usually is.

They back the Connie vote because Connie seems different because she's not being as defensive as normal. 

Post 3:

Spoiler

On 12/5/2020 at 0:56 PM, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

Also, I’ve thought a bit more about the 2 secret roles and the tiny hints we maybe have about them, and I think The Strangler is Vasher. We have precedence for having characters be roles with Kal and Szeth, and it fits with the guard being strangled in the RP. Vasher has been known to fight with awakened rope.

I bet his WinCon is something like “have control of Nightblood” for a certain amount of time. Or maybe die as the bearer of Nightblood. Or kill a certain person or faction with Nightblood. 

Edit: This doesn’t really affect the game in any way, as it’s impossible to verify, I’m mainly just speculating so that if I’m right I can say that I called it 

Back to speculation about the secret roles. NAI...most likely. 

Post 4:

Spoiler

23 hours ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

Hmm. Fair enough. Connie.

Connie said she was working on her acting, Danex took that as enough to take away their vote. 

Post 5:

Spoiler

18 hours ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

@Ookla Fell From The Sky can I get a vote count?

Danex asks for a votecount, right after Ash gives a vote count. Also after they took their vote off of Connie. If I thought harder maybe I could try and think of why they would ask for a vote count, but no. 

Post 6:

Spoiler

18 hours ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

Well okay then. 

A response to me quoting Ash's vote count

Post 7:

Spoiler

2 hours ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

I agree with what Eternum said, but I arrive at a different conclusion. Illwei.

Putting Eternum's post in here for reference: 

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

Why are you people getting off of Connie? That's so weird. I don't like this at all.

Quinn expressing severe doubt about the whole thing, now Illwei removing their vote?

Why do you not want to kill Connie or Gears, Illwei? Isn't Connie at this point the kill that gets us the most info? You've been so vehement about this the whole time (unless I missed a post or something? multiple pages of the thread are the back-and-forth between you two) and now you just.. back off with essentially no explanation?

I'm voting Ookla the Grammatical/Condensation. I don't know what, exactly, is happening here but all I know is that it feels weird and it makes no sense to me why you'd remove your vote.

EDIT: And, to add onto that, you removing your vote from Connie puts Gears, the other person you didn't want lynched, in the running to be lynched. What does that get you? Gears has had significantly less discussion around him than Connie or you.

Post 8:

Spoiler

2 hours ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

Eternum said this:

Quote

Why do you not want to kill Connie or Gears, Illwei? Isn't Connie at this point the kill that gets us the most info? You've been so vehement about this the whole time (unless I missed a post or something? multiple pages of the thread are the back-and-forth between you two) and now you just.. back off with essentially no explanation

and I agreed. They ended up voting Connie, but I think Illwei is more sus.

Uh yeah. 

This took me way too long for some reason. yeah. sorry about posting it early. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[+Lotus she/her]

Hi sorry I keep being unable to keep up with this thread.

I don’t feel strongly like Gears or Connie are a Elim-actually Eternum is my strongest Elim read although I don’t think I’ve played many games with them.

I think SFS is village just because I feel like claiming Elim would be a very non-elim thing to do.

mildy suspicious of Illwei, mostly gut and I feel like they are slightly.... off?

Dont know how to think about Danes. Will review their posts.

[Channelknight Fadran]

Can I join this? Sorry for the lack of formatting, but I’m not particularly proficient in mobile posting.