Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Mat he/him]

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

• Matrim - See, I started suspicious of him, disliking his wording 'tentative vote' and 'I'm voting but that's likely to change'. Like, yeah that's obvious. You change your vote if you find someone else suspicious. Him specifically stating it didn't sit right with me. But his recent reads about Lotus and Danex feels village, since I feel similar as well. Unsure. Leaning very mild village.

Mmm ok fair. I use those words cause I just type as if I'm talking, but I see where that's coming from.

Are you trying to pocket me?

I admit this last post of yours feels elim to me for an inexplicable reason. Maybe it's the amount you agreed with me, maybe it's something else, but my gut got a negative reaction to it which is unfortunate cause 1. You agreed with me a ton and 2. It's a well thought out post that I want to trust and you're a good player that I want to trust. But something feels off and I'll be watching.

2 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

What about my recent posts? My voting for Connie? 

You haven't posted anything of game relevance since the posts I quoted in my big one last night, they were all general conversations. Your voting of Connie I disagree with because I think she is village but I can't remember if the timing of the vote was elim or not. You voted-unvoted-voted, correct?

Speaking of Connie, I don't think she is going to be on much today, if at all. So don't expect a defense/'last post'/vote from her.

[Eternum he/him]

I've begun to realize my quest of trying to analyze this whole thread in a post is impossible. I'm not used to LGs

I'm just gonna go over the thread again and make a full reads post. For now, I'd like to note that Mat's giving me a pretty different vibe from the time we were elim together, so I'm leaning slightly village on him. As for everyone else (Mat included, this is subject to change as I read through his posts more carefully), reads coming soon.

[Quintessential she/her]

23 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

You haven't posted anything of game relevance since the posts I quoted in my big one last night, they were all general conversations. Your voting of Connie I disagree with because I think she is village but I can't remember if the timing of the vote was elim or not. You voted-unvoted-voted, correct?

Yes, I did. 

[Mat he/him]

25 minutes ago, Eternum said:

I'm just gonna go over the thread again and make a full reads post. For now, I'd like to note that Mat's giving me a pretty different vibe from the time we were elim together, so I'm leaning slightly village on him. As for everyone else (Mat included, this is subject to change as I read through his posts more carefully), reads coming soon.

...We were never elims together.

Not sure what that means for me

17 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Yes, I did. 

Gotcha. Hmm. I'll check the exact timing later.

I'll be unavailable for the next three hours.

[Eternum he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

...We were never elims together.

Not sure what that means for me

Huh. I was thinking of someone else entirely! Lmao. My bad. Scratch that then, you're back to square 1

[Quintessential she/her]

Okay, so I'm conflicted about my Connie vote:

On the one hand, if I take my vote off of her, then sans vote-manips it will be a tie between Gears and Connie. I don't want Gears to die, because he dies early a lot of the time and because he's one of the people I'm more comfortable bouncing ideas off of and talking to in PMs (assuming those ever open). I also don't want to seem like I'm last-minute-ish trying to save Connie, especially if she either wins the tie and continues on or if she dies and flips elim. And I don't like the idea of adding my vote to her, removing it, adding it again, and then removing it again. Especially given the discussion we had earlier about how more people should vote or at least give reasoning, and I don't have much actual reasoning to support either leaving my vote where it is, removing it, or putting it on someone else.

On the other hand, my reason for putting my vote on her the first time was the whole mess with D1 lynch discussions, and Mat cleared that up more or less to my satisfaction. My reason the second time was that Illwei is at this point my only village read, since she has a very distinctive play-style as a villager and so far she hasn't deviated from it. I don't want her to die, both because of that and because she died to the C1 lynch in the previous game. However, now that she's not in danger of being lynched (again, sans vote-manips; who knows what those will do?), should I take my vote off of Connie, since my major reasoning for that vote was to protect Illwei? I have no actual read on Connie...

Anyway, I guess I was curious to see what other people thought?

[Mat he/him]

45 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Anyway, I guess I was curious to see what other people thought?

Illwei is in no danger at the moment, so if your Connie vote was solely for that it's pointless unless you find her suspicious. You said you have no actual read on Connie, do you have an actual read on anyone else?

[Quintessential she/her]

17 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Illwei is in no danger at the moment, so if your Connie vote was solely for that it's pointless unless you find her suspicious. You said you have no actual read on Connie, do you have an actual read on anyone else?

Not really. Most of the people I've played with before have died early on in those games, or I didn't talk to them much. I've only played with you when we were both elims. Gears and I... well, I spent all of QF48 trying to deceive him in PMs, and he spent all of MR46 trying to deceive me in PMs. He seems normal enough so far, but... well, I don't know that I'd be able to tell, since there are currently no PMs. 

Edit: the exceptions to this are TJ and Ash. Obviously Ash is out of the picture here, and since TJ wasn't actually a villager in MR46 either and I spent a good portion of the game reading him as elim or elim-aligned, I don't know that my opinions on him are to be trusted either (he seems normal enough to me right now, but who knows what that means). Overall, nothing really stands out to me except that right now I'm fairly certain Illwei's village.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

7 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Sure, I read the one post she made at the time as village. She caught a contradiction to the rules that no one noticed. Paying attention to such stuff is more likely a villager than an elim. 

Idk, this might be true for newer players, but it absolutely isn't for players like Devotary. Personally when I'm an elim I put way more effort into understanding the rules.

7 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

That reminds me, I've heard about a certain dossier or psychological profiles you had created about players. How many Honorblades would you require to consider bartering with them?

Lol people have tried bargaining for a glimpse… Also... subtle acknowledgement of being the stone shaman? : P

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

I've begun to realize my quest of trying to analyze this whole thread in a post is impossible. I'm not used to LGs

I'm just gonna go over the thread again and make a full reads post. For now, I'd like to note that Mat's giving me a pretty different vibe from the time we were elim together, so I'm leaning slightly village on him. As for everyone else (Mat included, this is subject to change as I read through his posts more carefully), reads coming soon.

2 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

...We were never elims together.

Not sure what that means for me

I mean, Mat is acting very different than when we were elims together... But I believe he was a new player then so it doesn't mean anything. xD

 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

I mean, Mat is acting very different than when we were elims together... But I believe he was a new player then so it doesn't mean anything. xD

I was also never elims with you...

Did you do that on purpose?

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

5 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I was also never elims with you...

Did you do that on purpose?

But... I... umm....

MR42... I thought... I just checked... no...

Who were my teammates in MR42?

Im so confused

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

But... I... umm....

MR42... I thought... I just checked... no...

Who were my teammates in MR42?

Im so confused

MR42 I was Lord Winsting, The villager  

But yeah. Also my first game and I had no idea what I was doing. 

Your teammates were... Straw, Pyro, BR, Mist, Coda, Silber, and... Experience? I think, I'm just remembering off the top of my head.

Edit: Yeah, and Reading. (Thanks Illwei)

Edited December 6, 2020 by Ookla's Dice

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Who were my teammates in MR42?

I was about to say something lol.

I thought it was Reading?

Anyways Uh Some stuff to respond to and I'll try but i have stuff to do today so I apologize if I'm not often here. I don't want to kill Connie or Gears right now I don't think

[Eternum he/him]

Why are you people getting off of Connie? That's so weird. I don't like this at all.

Quinn expressing severe doubt about the whole thing, now Illwei removing their vote?

Why do you not want to kill Connie or Gears, Illwei? Isn't Connie at this point the kill that gets us the most info? You've been so vehement about this the whole time (unless I missed a post or something? multiple pages of the thread are the back-and-forth between you two) and now you just.. back off with essentially no explanation?

I'm voting Ookla the Grammatical/Condensation. I don't know what, exactly, is happening here but all I know is that it feels weird and it makes no sense to me why you'd remove your vote.

EDIT: And, to add onto that, you removing your vote from Connie puts Gears, the other person you didn't want lynched, in the running to be lynched. What does that get you? Gears has had significantly less discussion around him than Connie or you.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Eternum
made vote easier for Ash to read

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Quinn expressing severe doubt about the whole thing, now Illwei removing their vote?

Well I'm not removing my vote now. Like I said, I don't want Gears to die, at least not this early. I'm expressing "severe doubt" as you put it (though I would say it's more like "severe indecision") because I have no read on Connie; though, it is true that lynching her could give us information. And that since things are tied right now, if Gears or Connie is an elim it will likely force Kaladin to use Adhesion, so it could tell us which one.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Experience. I just did a reread of the thread, and I’d definitely rather lynch Connie over Gears. I’m really not a fan of the multiple instances of village claims. Those are entirely pointless. I don’t really have anything elim on Gears (not anything village either), but I agree with the sentiment that he dies too early too often. I was suspicious of Quinn for being unwilling to suspect people, but that is largely gone now with the vote on Connie.

I do also still suspect Experience. I know TJ expressed similar suspicion. I would be happy to switch back, but I’d prefer my vote to have some meaning, which it wasn’t.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

6 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Well I'm not removing my vote now. Like I said, I don't want Gears to die, at least not this early. I'm expressing "severe doubt" as you put it (though I would say it's more like "severe indecision") because I have no read on Connie; though, it is true that lynching her could give us information. And that since things are tied right now, if Gears or Connie is an elim it will likely force Kaladin to use Adhesion, so it could tell us which one.

Can Kaladin use adhesion turn one? Also, Kaladin might leave it up to the rng gods and perhaps save the Elim as they would die either way.

[Gears]

Huzzah, I am free! [Ignoring all those tests that are coming up, but...] For those who would like to know, I lost the tournament. General populace, you talk too much. I have quite a bit to read.

The cycle thus far can be divided into two phases.

Phase 1: Gears discussion. Gears gave poor strategies and there was some confusion over syntax. People linked: STINK [voted Gears, explained later that they don't like long role analysis posts], TJ [voted Gears for bad strategies], Quinn [agrees with Gears], Matrim [just gave context to lack of elim claim], Experience [somewhat, misinterpreted statements], Illwei [mentioned willingness to comment on Gears's elim history], Alvron [noted poor strategies, complimented Gears], Devotary [told Gears not to advise elims], Condensation [advocates Gears's analysis posts as useful]

Phase 2: Condensation and Illwei discussion. Condensation asks that "we be more careful than in my past games". Illwei is brought up as a counterlynch. People linked: Illwei [votes Condensation, no reasoning. Later states that they don't like obvious statements. Later says that they suspect Condensation is Truthless. Later retracts], Matrim [votes Condensation for gut. Later retracts and votes for Danex], Quinn [votes Condensation for having confusion over D1 lynch when we already discussed this in previous games they were in. Later retracts.], Books [votes Condensation because reads], Danex [votes Condensation for unusual behavior. Later retracts because Condensation has good reasoning], Fura [reads Condensation as elim, votes Condensation], Eternum [mentions suspicion of Condensation for "anyone else agree". Later votes Condensation because things are weird]. Books [votes Illwei since both lynches will provide information but thinks Illwei is more suspicious]

In my biased opinion, Condensation's lynch [or Illwei's, but that doesn't appear likely] will provide more information than my own, and the reasoning for my lynch does not amount to much. I do not particularly suspect Condensation, but I think that they are the best lynch of all the targets that are available, and I don't particularly want to die.

Sidenote: @Ooklil' the Wei, I don't like your playstyle. You're erratic and strange, with an emphasis on little to no reasoning. Because I dislike your playstyle, I instinctively increase my suspicion on you. Because you died C1 last game, I will refrain from suggesting your lynch, but I want you to work on explaining your actions before doing them and ensuring clear communication. 

[dannnex male]

I agree with what Eternum said, but I arrive at a different conclusion. Illwei.

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Ookla the Disproportionate
Ninjad by gears and sfs and araris

[Quintessential she/her]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

I agree with what Eternum said, but I arrive at a different conclusion. Illwei.

Why?

Edit: @Somebody from Sel Ash confirmed earlier in the thread that everyone with an Honorblade starts off the game with two Light and both Radiants start with three. Since Adhesion is a Day action, I assume Kaladin can use it first turn.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Quinn0928

[dannnex male]

Eternum said this:

Quote

Why do you not want to kill Connie or Gears, Illwei? Isn't Connie at this point the kill that gets us the most info? You've been so vehement about this the whole time (unless I missed a post or something? multiple pages of the thread are the back-and-forth between you two) and now you just.. back off with essentially no explanation

and I agreed. They ended up voting Connie, but I think Illwei is more sus.

 

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

Eternum said this:

and I agreed. They ended up voting Connie, but I think Illwei is more sus.

 

 Illwei is always more sus, so this doesn't actually say much. The fact that she's not trying to avoid suspicion makes me think she's village, though admittedly I've never played with her as elim so I can't speak to whether she does try then.

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said:

Eternum said this:

and I agreed. They ended up voting Connie, but I think Illwei is more sus.

Illwei is only sus for unvoting Connie if Connie flips elim, and I very much doubt this situation is e/e. So I'm having a hard time understanding this reasoning without knowing your stand on Connie.

[Ashbringer he/him]

14 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Why?

Edit: @Somebody from Sel Ash confirmed earlier in the thread that everyone with an Honorblade starts off the game with two Light and both Radiants start with three. Since Adhesion is a Day action, I assume Kaladin can use it first turn.

This is correct.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Vote count taken from GM

Ookla the Grammatical / Condensation (5): Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei, Furamirionind, Quinn0928, Eturnum, Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian, Gears
Gears (2): STINK, TJ Shade
Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei (1): Ookla the Disproportionate / Danex,
Ookla the Disproportionate / Danex (1): Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice
Ookla the Shadowed / Experience (0): Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian

Just going to throw out there that vote manip is a thing since people start with stormlight. There are 2 Honor blades with vote manip, and Kaladin also has vote manip. There are a lot of people connected to Connie (Gears, Quin, Matrim, and I think one other I'm not remembering right now)

In a game with 23 players, there could be up to 6 elims... Given the ruleset I think 5 is more likely... but technically it could be 6. If the honor blades are purely random, the elims almost definitely have at least 1...

Ok I was saying this to get more people to vote, but more people have voted. I've updated the count hopefully accordingly.

Honestly Illwei's playstyle seems like mine on steriods... So I'm not sus on her for taking her vote off. Lol

21 minutes ago, Gears said:

In my biased opinion, Condensation's lynch [or Illwei's, but that doesn't appear likely] will provide more information than my own, and the reasoning for my lynch does not amount to much. I do not particularly suspect Condensation, but I think that they are the best lynch of all the targets that are available, and I don't particularly want to die.

Who do you suspect? Personally I think there is a somewhat likely world right now where you and Condensation are both elims.

21 minutes ago, Gears said:

Sidenote: @Ooklil' the Wei, I don't like your playstyle. You're erratic and strange, with an emphasis on little to no reasoning. Because I dislike your playstyle, I instinctively increase my suspicion on you. Because you died C1 last game, I will refrain from suggesting your lynch, but I want you to work on explaining your actions before doing them and ensuring clear communication. 

Well, I don't like your playstyle, Gears... Roasted. Lol
In all seriousness, if we want to have a meta discussion about what respectful ways to play the game are, let's do that... But lets try to have that discussion in a respectful way?

Edited December 6, 2020 by Furamirionind
edited in full gears quote upon rereading it