Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[---]

13 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Edit: Wow I'm smart. I spent so long writing that post that I completely forgot to vote Gears. I apologize if I'm breaking some SE norm about not putting votes in edits--I forget if that's a thing or not...

Mostly it's because GMs won't normally see votes if they're edited in. Idk, because you edited it right away, but I know some GMs like to be tagged in edits with votes.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Mostly it's because GMs won't normally see votes if they're edited in. Idk, because you edited it right away, but I know some GMs like to be tagged in edits with votes.

Added, just in case Ash is one of them  

[Ashbringer he/him]

*Shrug*

Just don’t edit it in after someones already posted.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

7 hours ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Huh. see, the first thing I saw was Ventyl maybe trying to get a clear on connie from killing fura and him flipping vil. this doesn't...yeah I don't see a vote picking up on Fura so that makes a lot more sense. 

Sure hope not, but I'll fix that

Ventyl

okay waitaminit. name one game I've been in with Ventyl where I haven't voted on him D1 or 2. coolio.

I don’t like this... please give me mercy for once Illwei.

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

Matrim: Still mild village, but I would like to add a caveat (of sorts). I've said already that I think WGG is unlikely, especially so early on, but it also seems unlikely that a random villager saved Matrim, or even that he would have saved himself, because as far as I can tell there wasn't a reason for the elims to kill him (unless he claimed to someone that he had a Blade and then protected himself with it, in which case I assume he would have said something about whom he suspected). Additionally, Matrim did get to see very clearly exactly how much chaos Reading's survival C1 of MR46 caused--it certainly didn't hurt the elims at first, since it distracted us from an Aman lynch--and elim!Matrim might have thought about harnessing that same confusion again. I still don't think it's likely, but having thought about it some more I figured I'd say this anyway.

So you don’t think it was a WGG but you think it might be one anyway? :P.

Illwei already posted a list of the players after cutting out new, returning, killed early a lot, etc players and it had about four, including me. Furthermore, Eternum pointed out that showing that the Danex train started as village could throw analyzers off the trail, if that was the elims intent (I think that was what he said) so I see plenty of reasons I was chosen as the kill target- something I slightly suspected would happen anyway. I’m just lucky enough someone else did too.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Ookla's Dice

[+Lotus she/her]

It’s finals week so please excuse me if I somewhat disappear for the next two days.

Uhhh reads right. Illwei not so fond, Arias not so fond, Connie meh, somewhat trust mat.

[Flyingbooks]

Just now, Lotus said:

It’s finals week so please excuse me if I somewhat disappear for the next two days.

Uhhh reads right. Illwei not so fond, Arias not so fond, Connie meh, somewhat trust mat.

What is your reasoning for those reads? And what about other people?

[+Lotus she/her]

17 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

What is your reasoning for those reads? And what about other people?

Nope. Only thing Is that Mat I don't think is a Elim because the elims tried to kill him.

Illwei and Arasis are just gut n stuff

[|TJ| he/him]

9 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I don't like this jump on me, the main reason is a didn't bandwagon on Connie. I said this in the day, I've been trying to not bandwagon as that is appearantly elimmy, see MR46.

No? My main reason is that I can't see your actions from a village perspective. Reasons from N1:

Quote

Genuinely convinced SfS is an elim or has one of the Secret roles because there's no way I believe anyone wants to sacrifice themselves to potentially protect an Honorblade village because a. it's about chances as there's no guarantee that the elims would hit an honorblade bearer in the first place b. Vanilla villager can do as much damage with analysis as any role. c. Vanilla villager can be a future potential Honorblade holder and d. If it was really SfS' intentions, he wouldn't have revealed it. 

So no, I don't find you suspicious for not bandwagon-ing. And 'jump' seems quite excessive, considering that I'm the first person to be voting for you. 

[Quintessential she/her]

9 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

So you don’t think it was a WGG but you think it might be one anyway? :P.

Illwei already posted a list of the players after cutting out new, returning, killed early a lot, etc players and it had about four, including me. Furthermore, Eternum pointed out that showing that the Danex train started as village could throw analyzers off the trail, if that was the elims intent (I think that was what he said) so I see plenty of reasons I was chosen as the kill target- something I slightly suspected would happen anyway. I’m just lucky enough someone else did too.

Yes, I think you're Schrödinger's cat and you were 50% WGGd and 50% saved by someone else. In all seriousness though, that is basically what my brain does to me all the time in these games. Every time I think I trust someone, there's this little voice that whispers all the reasons I maybe shouldn't. I have an unfortunate track record of listening to that voice when it's wrong and ignoring it when it's right.

Oh, right, good point. I remember you did something like that (making a list of players and labeling the ones we shouldn't kill immediately) at the start of QF48. I'm just surprised that someone else thought to save you. But I guess that process of elimination does make it seem more likely the the elims killed specifically you, and someone else saved specifically you, if they were all thinking roughly along those lines, or considering that the elims would try to prove the Danex train was village.

Of course, that probably means it wasn't. So... I know Matrim and I were on that train, but apart from that, who else?

Edited December 9, 2020 by Quinn0928

[---]

13 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Every time I think I trust someone, there's this little voice that whispers all the reasons I maybe shouldn't.

Hehe.

13 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Of course, that probably means it wasn't. So... I know Matrim and I were on that train, but apart from that, who else?

I'll just uh, put this here for easy access?

• Ookla the Disproportionate / Danex (7): Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice, Flyingbooks42, Gears, Ookla the Grammatical / Condensation, Quinn0928, Alvron
• Ookla the Grammatical / Condensation (6): Furamirionind, Eternum, Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian, Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei, Somebody from Sel, Ookla the Hypodedadel Devotary of Spontaneity
• Gears (2): STINK, TJ Shade
• Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei (1): Ookla the Disproportionate / Danex

If we are assuming that Eternum is village, and that...that's actually what the Elims were doing, then Connie, Alv, and Gears are suspects if I assume that Quinn, Mat, and Books are village. 

haha. dedadel

Edited December 9, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[ShrubSeph he/him]

Someone has probably said this already, or I'm missing something, but why would a village save Connie? There's no way for a village to be certain of her alignment. If it were me, I would just let RNG take it's course instead of using my stormlight. I think it's most likely that she was protected by an elim, because there is also no way for the elims to have known Danex was the Truthless. The elims might have wanted to cause confusion, so this doesn't mean she's an elim for sure, but I think an elim saved her. 

[Quintessential she/her]

23 minutes ago, Ookla the Watcher said:

Someone has probably said this already, or I'm missing something, but why would a village save Connie? There's no way for a village to be certain of her alignment. If it were me, I would just let RNG take it's course instead of using my stormlight. I think it's most likely that she was protected by an elim, because there is also no way for the elims to have known Danex was the Truthless. The elims might have wanted to cause confusion, so this doesn't mean she's an elim for sure, but I think an elim saved her. 

I'm sort of confused... if you're talking about the vote-manip on Danex? That was Danex. A vote was added to his count, not removed from Connie's, and he had the only Blade that can add votes. So it had to have been him; there were no elims involved in that, and the point was to kill Danex, not save Connie.

[ShrubSeph he/him]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

I'm sort of confused... if you're talking about the vote-manip on Danex? That was Danex. A vote was added to his count, not removed from Connie's, and he had the only Blade that can add votes. So it had to have been him; there were no elims involved in that, and the point was to kill Danex, not save Connie.

I need to read writeups closer. Never mind that post then. *depressed sigh* 

[Quintessential she/her]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Watcher said:

I need to read writeups closer. Never mind that post then. *depressed sigh* 

lol it's fine; the write-up itself didn't point that out--I noticed that there's only one Blade with Cohesion when I was writing a post somewhere in this thread. At least it means we're certain about some things... Unfortunately, though, all of them have to do with someone who's dead.

[ShrubSeph he/him]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

there's only one Blade with Cohesion

Unless secrets

[Quintessential she/her]

Well, yes, but it also makes sense that Danex would use his ability on himself, since he wanted to die to the lynch and that was a way of ensuring that it happened.

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

If we are assuming that Eternum is village, and that...that's actually what the Elims were doing, then Connie, Alv, and Gears are suspects if I assume that Quinn, Mat, and Books are village. 

My problem with that I guess is I don't actually suspect any of those three :P. I dunno what the elim's motives were, and I don't think I will until I read their doc after the game. I don't think Eternum said that to throw us off the trail, not at all, he's my largest trust right now.

@Ookla Fell From The Sky, can I get a vote count?

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

My problem with that I guess is I don't actually suspect any of those three :P.

Well, it probably isn't all of those three--I doubt that half or more of the elims would ever get on the same train. This train of thought is "if the elims were trying to save their teammate" so obviously Connie would be an elim in that scenario (which still doesn't seem likely to me, but as a thought experiment I'll consider it). That leaves probably one of Alv or Gears as elim. Since Alv was the one who really started the Danex train, I'd think it was him, except that apparently RNG is his play-style so it could just as easily have been elim!Gears taking advantage of village!Alv's love of chaos.

Thinking about it, though, I think it's possible that the elims could have chosen to kill Matrim so that we would think of precisely this line of inquiry and possibly pursue a mislynch on Connie. Not super likely, but at this point none of the individual scenarios seem super likely to me. 

[The Windrunner Supreme he/him]

Im just going to say hi, I havent read through everything, and now I have school, so i'll post something later tonight, hopefully

[Ashbringer he/him]

Vote count:

• Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl (2): Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian, Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei
• Ookla the Shadowed / Experience (1): Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice
• Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
• Furamirionind (1): Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl
• Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian (1): Ookla the Shadowed / Experience
• Quinn0928 (1): STINK
• Ookla the Grammatical (1): Furamirionind
• Gears (1): Quinn0928

[Furamirionind]

I believe the day is ending soon. I'm fine with a lynch on Ventyl, Gears, and Grammar... Maybe experience but probably not? I'd have to reread him. No idea where the vote on Araris came from. I think Quinn is open-wolfing and she's relatively new (I think) so I don't think she's evil right now... Subject to change later. Also not sure why Sel is up for lynhc. Didn't people say they usually bandwagon, yet they are being voted on for bandwagoning? I think?

Would have to reread through D1 again but I'm concerned why no one is talking about either Illwei or Grammar. Usually v/v lynches in my experience don't just stop existing after they are miraculously diverted away... 

but with 5(?) hours until rollover, we need to start consolidating votes as there is 3 vote manip things out there, and for all we know the elims might have gotten Kelek's blade... (Though I don't actually think they could use it yet as the wielders probably doesn't have stormlight)

[Quintessential she/her]

13 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I believe the day is ending soon. I'm fine with a lynch on Ventyl, Gears, and Grammar... Maybe experience but probably not? I'd have to reread him. No idea where the vote on Araris came from. I think Quinn is open-wolfing and she's relatively new (I think) so I don't think she's evil right now... Subject to change later. Also not sure why Sel is up for lynhc. Didn't people say they usually bandwagon, yet they are being voted on for bandwagoning? I think?

Would have to reread through D1 again but I'm concerned why no one is talking about either Illwei or Grammar. Usually v/v lynches in my experience don't just stop existing after they are miraculously diverted away... 

but with 5(?) hours until rollover, we need to start consolidating votes as there is 3 vote manip things out there, and for all we know the elims might have gotten Kelek's blade... (Though I don't actually think they could use it yet as the wielders probably doesn't have stormlight)

What is open-wolfing? Yes, I'm new--this is my third game (or fourth if you count the current QF as my third, since it'll end before this one does). 

Also I haven't actually calculated the odds that Kalak's Blade miraculously landed in the hands of someone with Stormlight, but I think it would be... 4/11, or around 36%? Okay, now I have calculated the odds. Assuming neither of the secret roles get Stormlight, that neither Kaladin nor Szeth started with a Blade, the Stone Shaman didn't start with a Blade, and that each person started with a maximum of one Blade, the probability that Kalak's Blade is currently held by someone who can use it is 36% (since 9 people started with Stormlight, one died, and there are now 22 people in the game). The probability would be lower if Kaladin, Szeth, or the Stone Shaman started with a Blade, or if people started with more than one Blade, since fewer than 9 would have started with Stormlight. It would also be lower if someone has used up the Stormlight they started with already. It would be higher if one or both of the secret roles started with Stormlight. (Edit: or if Tension has been used on someone who didn't have Stormlight before). But, 36%? There's a 2/3 chance that Kalak's Blade is out of commission until D4.

I don't know how useful that actually is lol but I was curious, so now you all know. Anyway, there are still almost certainly two other vote-manips out there. so you're still right that we need to shore up the lynch. So with that in mind I'd be willing to join the lynch on Ventyl, unless you think it likely that you can convince others to join me in voting Gears. I don't think Connie/Grammar is elim.

Edit: I messed up the name of the Blade in my original post (Katak instead of Kalak) so I've fixed that now  

Edited December 9, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Furamirionind]

13 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

What is open-wolfing? Yes, I'm new--this is my third game (or fourth if you count the current QF as my third, since it'll end before this one does). 

rereading my post I actually might have misused the term so my bad. It's a weird term, I just used it as a short hand for what I was trying to say cause I'm tired. Lol 

What I meant is that you're like... You seem so obviously an elim to me I don't think you are one. There really isn't any hard evidence to support you're an elim, it's just your tone, who you're defending, how much, things like that. But you so consistently seem mafia to me I think it's your playstyle. I think if you were mafia it would likely be less consistant and I would flip flop more on you as you try to suppress suspicious tendencies.

Edit: granted, I do flip flop a lot on you, but not for the reasons I think I should be if you were elim... So essentially I've temporarily cleared you in my head for a cycle, to re-evaluate with more information and context

ED2T: Also I find numbers and percentages very useful. What that means is while unlikely, its very possible someone could use the blade today

Edited December 9, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Mat he/him]

I personally think Ventyl's lynch won't provide enough info to make it be worth it. I don't think he's posted enough to build a good argument against.