Mid-Range Game 46: A Broken Imperium

[Ghanderflaffle]

Whoever it is, we probably won’t worry about it too much until the next cycle.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

2 hours ago, Danex said:

The Elims obviously. 

Also, changing my vote to Ventyl. Somebody made some ok points in PM. I’m still suspicious of them, but they removed enough suspicion for me to remove my vote. 

Also also, Matrim, do you want us to green out old votes if we’re doing a new vote in the same post? Straw didn’t need us to in LG71, but every GM is different. 

Why are you voting me? Because I agreed with Books? I wouldn’t call what I did bandwagoning, considering I also made my own arguments against the plan. Or well, more I just pointed out one more flaw. 

Also, did @Somebody from Sel make points as to why not to lynch them in the PM, or why to lynch me? A combination of both?

EDIT: 

I’m going to sleep now, so don’t do anything too exciting while I’m gone.

Edited November 16, 2020 by Ventyl

[danex]

2 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

How about we carry out the plan, but then, instead of lunching the most PMd-about person, simply keeping it in mind as potential bonus evidence against anybody who's mentioned if they're acting a bit elimish. This would prevent the elims from using it to choose who to lynch while also using it to gain information.

That was always kinda the plan, especially since it’s possible that @Shard of Reading is just the Lord Ruler. 

2 hours ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

Whoever it is, we probably won’t worry about it too much until the next cycle.

Yeah, give the chain a while to spread. 

19 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Why are you voting me? Because I agreed with Books? I wouldn’t call what I did bandwagoning, considering I also made my own arguments against the plan. Or well, more I just pointed out one more flaw. 

Also, did @Somebody from Sel make points as to why not to lynch them in the PM, or why to lynch me? A combination of both?

It felt pretty Bandwagony to me. You did make your own argument...kinda. I don’t necessarily have you down as hard, 100% Elim, but I feel like I oughta vote someone, and right now you’re my best guess. 
SfS gave me reasons to not vote them. You did not come up. 

[|TJ|]

Hold on, hold on. That's a lot of pages to wake up to. Why do we want to muddle up the source of the message by allowing it to pass multiple times? Why do we not just lynch the person mentioned in PMs, and if they turn up village, then claim who messaged us to find the source of the message? Mislynches are common in C2. If we let the message run to the next cycle, then lynch the person in the PMs next cycle and they turn up village, and the cycle after that we would attempt to find the origin of it, by then the messages would be too muddled for us to find the origin of it. So this way, we can find at least one elim by the end of next cycle. 

I don't think Reading is actually the TLR. After Ash mentioned his activity, I went and checked, and he had been active only for the first 24 hrs of C1. I don't find it likely that someone would have made the decision to join an alignment in the first half-cycle of the game.

Edited November 16, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Amanuensis]

Well that was certainly an eventful cycle. Knowing that yesterday's lynch was a V/V between myself an illwei, I'm a bit suspicious of people that were present at EoD and didn't vote. More so, I'm surprised that Ventyl was present enough to comment on Illwei's voting for Vapor, but not enough to remove his poke vote off of me, let alone comment on the lynch at all. 

[|TJ|]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Well that was certainly an eventful cycle. Knowing that yesterday's lynch was a V/V between myself an illwei, I'm a bit suspicious of people that were present at EoD and didn't vote. More so, I'm surprised that Ventyl was present enough to comment on Illwei's voting for Vapor, but not enough to remove his poke vote off of me, let alone comment on the lynch at all. 

I'm telling you it's eerie how I was thinking the same thing. I was just noting down the voting sequence for the last cycle and found it very weird that he didn't retract or even speak about the fact that he voted for you. I'm wary of following Aman but he wanted to give up his life so Bearer doesn't die so I'm cautious reading him village. Ventyl
Aman, what are you thoughts on Reading's survival?

I'm reading Somebody as village as well. They were the 3rd player to vote on Aman and shifted to be the 3rd player to vote on Bearer, which showed clear purpose. An elim would see no difference between the two. In fact they might have preferred the lynch of more experience Aman. They would also be afraid of how they would look if Bearer flipped village as they were the last person to vote for them. 

Reading Books as village for their attack on Danex. I'm not sure about Danex, but I'm leaning v/v on Danex-Books. Leaning elim for Turtle for their vote on Illwei last cycle.

Edited November 16, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Amanuensis]

37 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm telling you it's eerie how I was thinking the same thing. I was just noting down the voting sequence for the last cycle and found it very weird that he didn't retract or even speak about the fact that he voted for you. I'm wary of following Aman but he wanted to give up his life so Bearer doesn't die so I'm cautious reading him village. Ventyl
Aman, what are you thoughts on Reading's survival?

I'm reading Somebody as village as well. They were the 3rd player to vote on Aman and shifted to be the 3rd player to vote on Bearer, which showed clear purpose. An elim would see no difference between the two. In fact they might have preferred the lynch of more experience Aman. They would also be afraid of how they would look if Bearer flipped village as they were the last person to vote for them. 

Reading Books as village for their attack on Danex. I'm not sure about Danex, but I'm leaning v/v on Danex-Books. Leaning elim for Turtle for their vote on Illwei last cycle.

I've received a PM that indicates a player was roleblocked, so I'm inclined to believe said player is an Inquisitor. The likelyhood of Reading being TLR is very small, and I doubt the elims would be so bold to falsely accuse someone. Said player did not post a lot of analyzable content the previous turn, however, so I would like to see how they approach the game from here before lynching them. One of the problems of getting rid of elims too early is that we have no leads from there, and it becomes very easy for their allies to bus them for village credit.

[+JesterLavorre]

Well, I finally had enough time to get a post in.

Ok, so here’s my analysis so far:

Ventyl: poked Aman cycle 1, which almost caused a lynch of Aman. Though, unless he was the canton of resource who removed a vote from Illwei, he would have no way to know his poke would go anywhere. TJ read one of his posts as a possible pocket of Books. I don’t read it as pocketing, though. Was suspicious of Dannex and agreed with books. Very slight elim.

Aman: Had a possible pocket attempt on TJ, though I don’t read it as such. Also was the first vote on Illwei, but justifiably switched when Bearer started acting a little sus. I’m N/A on him.

Somebody: Said D1 that he thought Aman and Illwei or Aman and TJ were elims together. This seems like fine logic based on my analysis of Aman above, though I’m not sure if he is correct in his suspicions. Mild village.

Fadran: Not much of a read, here. If he was elim, I feel like he would be trying to leverage his status as new to be a little more accusatory without drawing suspicion. Slight village.

Quinn: Wondered out loud whether the elims know if they were roleblocked or hit TLR. This reads to me like an elim asking a question they already know the answer to too try and seem like vil. Also advocated that TLR join the elims. Overall, her posts seem a little off to me. Mild elim.

Dannex: Started the roleblock PM train. I’m generally pretty supportive of crazy plans, but this does seem like a way for an elim to muddy the waters a bit. Overall, though, I’m reading village. I’m not sure why an elim would propose that plan, knowing it would draw suspicion. N/A.

I’m going to go with Quinn for now, but I could be convinced of Ventyl or Aman, too.

[Gears]

My apologies for not keeping up with this for a bit. I was busy then went to sleep. I do believe that my typical niche of analysing votes was not yet filled, so here is a vote history of last cycle.

Mist pokes Chasmgoat (I would like to note that I see no value in a poke vote, but the current meta seems to favor it.)

Illwei votes Mist for theorising elim strats, then promptly theorises elim strats, which was mildly hypocritical. (I can never read Illwei. It's the playstyle, methinks. Too crazy. Also my tendency to read people as elim for being inconsistent, but mostly their playstyle).

[Mist is replaced by Fadran!]

Ventyl pokes Amanuensis.

Chasmgoat pokes Condensation.

Chasmgoat retracts Condensation. 

Happy Obligator pokes Ghanderflaffle and asks for thoughts

Mist/Fadran retracts Chasmgoat.

Happy Obligator retracts Ghanderflaffle on the receival of thoughts.

Somebody votes and retracts Somebody as part of a question.

turtle pokes Experience.

Amanuensis votes Illwei for being chaotic and tunnelling.

Bearer tries to vote Illwei but doesn't know how to do colors.

Illwei retracts Mist/Fadran and votes Gears because they have to be elim eventually.

Whysper votes Amanuensis for suspected pocketing and shading.

TJ votes Illwei because they tend to be less confident as an elim.

turtle votes Illwei for poke voting when they don't like poke votes. (It's not really a poke vote, just law of averages. If they do that every time, odds are they'll vote me out as elim eventually. Sadly, on that road lies my repeated demise.)

Somebody votes Amanuensis. Thinks Aman and Illwei are elims together and that either TJ or Illwei are elims. (I wish people would provide reasoning for things like this.)

Bearer tries to vote Illwei again but fails colors.

Bearer successfully votes Illwei.

Illwei votes Bearer for apologising.

Amanuensis votes Bearer as a way off Illwei and because they seemed eager to lynch Illwei.

Somebody retracts Aman and votes Bearer (Again with no reasoning.)

Aman retracts Bearer to keep new players alive. 

Illwei votes Gears again (without retracting)

Illwei votes Vapor (again without retracting and this time without reasoning)

Thoughts: @Somebody from Sel needs to offer reasoning more. They keep saying things without anything. @Bearer of all agonies needs to provide reasoning as well. @Illwei, I ask why you voted Vapor.

The vote count: A vote was removed from Illwei. This could be to kill Aman or to protect Illwei. Either way, the culprit probably lies among Aman voters, as everyone else could have simply voted Aman then vote manip-ed to ensure the desired outcome.

The kill: Apparently, roleblocks show in the write-up. I've never encountered this before. This does decrease my certainty that Reading is TLR. 

The roleblock plan: It doesn't work in practice, since elims can send co-ordinated chains. Theoretically, we could trace this back, but that would reveal the origin of the chains.

6 minutes ago, JesterLavorre said:

Quinn: Wondered out loud whether the elims know if they were roleblocked or hit TLR. This reads to me like an elim asking a question they already know the answer to too try and seem like vil. Also advocated that TLR join the elims. Overall, her posts seem a little off to me. Mild elim.

All of your other reads are ones I either agree with or don't remember enough about the person to say anything against, but I don't agree with you on this one. I think that an elim wouldn't want to draw attention to the option of being roleblocked, since that instantly narrows the pool of possible kill submitters. A villager wants to ask questions and get answers. I too advocated that TLR join the elims, and you have nothing on me. I can understand a gut read, but I think your reasoning is flawed.

[Channelknight Fadran]

What would happen if the elim happened to be one of the quiet players?

[Amanuensis]

32 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

What would happen if the elim happened to be one of the quiet players?

To clarify, by "quiet players" do you mean those whom were present for EoD but didn't speak up?

ED1T:

EoD means End of Day, in case you're not familiar with the term; i.e. the final stretch of a turn before the new one

 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Amanuensis

[Quintessential]

56 minutes ago, JesterLavorre said:

Quinn: Wondered out loud whether the elims know if they were roleblocked or hit TLR. This reads to me like an elim asking a question they already know the answer to too try and seem like vil. Also advocated that TLR join the elims. Overall, her posts seem a little off to me. Mild elim.

I’m going to go with Quinn for now, but I could be convinced of Ventyl or Aman, too.

 

48 minutes ago, Gears said:

All of your other reads are ones I either agree with or don't remember enough about the person to say anything against, but I don't agree with you on this one. I think that an elim wouldn't want to draw attention to the option of being roleblocked, since that instantly narrows the pool of possible kill submitters. A villager wants to ask questions and get answers. I too advocated that TLR join the elims, and you have nothing on me. I can understand a gut read, but I think your reasoning is flawed.

So Gears more or less made my argument for me; I don't like this trend of accusing people of being an elim for theorizing about what the elims would do or what they know. Making people wary of trying to share their thoughts on what the elims are doing will most likely benefit the elims more than us. With that in mind, I'm tentatively voting JesterLavorre.

[Channelknight Fadran]

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

To clarify, by "quiet players" do you mean those whom were present for EoD but didn't speak up?

ED1T:

EoD means End of Day, in case you're not familiar with the term; i.e. the final stretch of a turn before the new one

Just the players who're in the game but haven't really posted.

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Just the players who're in the game but haven't really posted.

It's fairly common for eliminators to hang out in the background when their ally's lives aren't on the line. This is why it's important for villagers to actively contribute as often as they can, in order to give elims less room to blend in and hopefully force them into speaking up. It's our responsibility to figure out who's only interest is getting villagers killed.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Well that was certainly an eventful cycle. Knowing that yesterday's lynch was a V/V between myself an illwei, I'm a bit suspicious of people that were present at EoD and didn't vote. More so, I'm surprised that Ventyl was present enough to comment on Illwei's voting for Vapor, but not enough to remove his poke vote off of me, let alone comment on the lynch at all. 

I didn’t see a need to remove it, mainly because I am suspicious of you.

EDIT;

@Matrim's Dice, can we get a vote count?

Edited November 16, 2020 by Ventyl

[Turtle]

@Quinn0928 What are your thoughts on the votes on you?

[Quintessential]

Just now, eltruT said:

@Quinn0928 What are your thoughts on the votes on you?

There's only been one so far, and I responded to it a few comments up.

[Shard of Reading]

Soooo.... It appears that I survived. (And murder hornets are cannon now.)

I skimmed this thread, but I need to go catch up on the last one. This is just to say that I'm here and because I'm not TLR RB's claim to me. It would give me a better idea who might be submitting the kill.

[|TJ|]

1 hour ago, Gears said:

I too advocated that TLR join the elims

Didn't you tell that TLR would be basically useless if they joined the elims and then proceeded to make a case for them to join the village? Where did you advocate TLR to join the elims?

Edited November 16, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

Soooo.... It appears that I survived. (And murder hornets are cannon now.)

I skimmed this thread, but I need to go catch up on the last one. This is just to say that I'm here and because I'm not TLR RB's claim to me. It would give me a better idea who might be submitting the kill.

Actually, RB's, that might not be the best idea. It's possible that Reading is TLR, has aligned with the elims, and is hoping to use the information of who all of the village roleblockers are to help the elims. Obviously, it's also possible Reading is village and was saved by a roleblock, but if I were a roleblocker I'm not sure I'd want to take that chance.

[Gears]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Didn't you tell that TLR would be basically useless if they joined and elims and then proceeded to make a case for them to join the village? Where did you advocate TLR to join the elims?

I was referring to my statements that TLR should ally with the elims if they are doing well. While I did state that TLR should ally with the village in the case of actually wanting to make a difference in this world, I also said that TLR should join the elims in the event of probable victory. I probably overstated this in the post you quoted.

[Mat]

40 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

@Matrim's Dice, can we get a vote count?

• Ventyl (3): Danex, Amanuensis, TJ Shade
• Danex (2): Flyingbooks42, Ventyl
• Quinn0928 (1): JesterLavorre
• JesterLavorre (1): Quinn0928

25 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

(And murder hornets are cannon now.)

Only for you... 

[ShrubSeph]

19 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

It's possible that Reading is TLR, has aligned with the elims, and is hoping to use the information of who all of the village roleblockers are to help the elims.

I don't think TLR has a rolescan, just alignment. 

I'm not sure what the points are against Ventyl, but maybe I just need to read over the last pages more in-depth.

 

[Shard of Reading]

22 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Actually, RB's, that might not be the best idea. It's possible that Reading is TLR, has aligned with the elims, and is hoping to use the information of who all of the village roleblockers are to help the elims. Obviously, it's also possible Reading is village and was saved by a roleblock, but if I were a roleblocker I'm not sure I'd want to take that chance.

That is true. It's a risk, but I'm not TLR and even if I did I'd probably side with Village. (That seems more fun to me.) I'm trying to gather information to try and figure out an elim (might totally backfire, I don't know) And this will only work if RB's participate.

[Quintessential]

Just now, Kings_way said:

I don't think TLR has a rolescan, just alignment. 

I'm not sure what the points are against Ventyl, but maybe I just need to read over the last pages more in-depth.

I know that. I posted that comment in response to Reading's suggestion that roleblockers tell them who they were and who they blocked. That would give Reading knowledge of who all the village roleblockers are.