Long Game 69: The Politics of the Passions

[Illwei]

4 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I had no intention of making Mint or Mist die. I am very sorry and if I had been there I would have saved her.

You...would have saved them...by....killing yourself? I mean- your vote was on Mint?

I'm unsure if i should take you saying that as suspicious, or as a villager who is trying to keep their sibling in the game because they're nice. I mean, could also be an elim trying to...be...nice? I'm more confused now this is fine

Edited September 1, 2020 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I had no intention of making Mint or Mist die. I am very sorry and if I had been there I would have saved her.

 

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

You...would have saved them...by....killing yourself? I mean-

The only thing you could've done was vote on yourself...

[Experience he/him]

Ok, well. I guess I can start to get some analysis now that something has happened. 

Illwei is first other than myself, so here's their posts from Day 1 and my analysis.

Illwei -- Slight village lean.
1) Dissects Table 3 --  Mostly NAI I think.
2) Joke about Matrim voting on a spectator -- NAI
3) Votes on Vapor because of their poke votes. Says vapor is third on their suspicious list. -- Slight lean on maf because their top three includes a poke voter. Not sure though because there wasn’t much to go off of. 
4) NAI talk about rollover
5) More NAI talk about rollover
6) Kinda jokingly says how they would find it suspicious if anyone followed their reasoning for voting on Vapor, which is sorta unusual. 
7) Claim they don’t have many suspicions. Contradictory to 3rd post, but I dunno. 
8) Says they think voting on people because their inactive D1 isn’t the best move, which actually makes their vote on Vapor make more since they were poke voting, so leaning slight village lean now. 
9) Asks if the cycle ended yet. -- NAI.
 

[+Lotus she/her]

I’m not sure if I can really be giving this round the amount of attention I need to. I have a lot more going on then I originally thought, and I just don’t know.

So, Elims if your seeing this, I wouldn’t mind being killed. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Lotus

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Experience said:

3) Votes on Vapor because of their poke votes. Says vapor is third on their suspicious list. -- Slight lean on maf because their top three includes a poke voter. Not sure though because there wasn’t much to go off of. 

7) Claim they don’t have many suspicions. Contradictory to 3rd post, but I dunno. 

I believe that Illwei meant that Vapor had exhibited the 3rd most suspicious activity to him, not that Vapor herself was on a suspicions list.

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I believe that Illwei meant that Vapor had exhibited the 3rd most suspicious activity to him, not that Vapor herself was on a suspicions list.

That might be the case, the wording was a little iffy. @Illwei, can you confirm one way or the other?

[Illwei]

25 minutes ago, Experience said:

Says vapor is third on their suspicious list

I would like to clarify that they were not third on my suspicion list, but that they were performing one of my top three activities I find suspicious. list currently includes, in no particular order: 
 - Tagging other people to come talk when they themselves aren't talking
 - Posting vote counts unprompted
 - uh...I don't remember what this one is but I'll get back to you when I remember. 

EDIT: idk what it was, maybe there was only ever two, but I'm going to add "Asking questions but not answering them yourself" to the list I guess that's the new number three, and if i remember the old one I guess that's going to be number 4

Edited September 1, 2020 by Illwei

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I would like to clarify that they were not third on my suspicion list, but that they were performing one of my top three activities I find suspicious. list currently includes, in no particular order: 
 - Tagging other people to come talk when they themselves aren't talking
 - Posting vote counts unprompted
 - uh...I don't remember what this one is but I'll get back to you when I remember. 

Ok, that changes what I thought, and seems more NAI. I'm almost done with my next analysis, and will post it soon.

[Experience he/him]

Matrim's Dice -- Slight Elim Lean

1) RP, NAI talk about RP and school. Mentions that there we can’t use action distribution to find alignment. -- NAI.
2) Says they don’t want to reveal what table they will be using, though claims they won’t use table 3 as much. Votes on Gears. Says is just a poke vote. -- NAI imo
3) Realizes that Gears is a spectator, and removes vote. Pokes on Vapor. Claims they agree on suspicion of Elkanah. Says they would rather poke D1 to get discussion going. Mostly NAI i think.
4) Removes vote from Vapor.
5) Responds to 3 of Elks votes. NAI.
6) Think’s Illwei’s vote on Vapor makes sense, but not enough to put his vote on as well. Might be trying to hide from attention? 
7) Thinks that so far has been a lot of discussion about nothing. Probably wouldn’t bring up if maf, cause they like that. Slight village.
8) Puts vote on Kynedath, says because of gut feel. 
9) Says they maybe jumped too far on Kynedath vote, but doesn’t retract. Feels like they are trying kinda hard to not bring attention to themselves. First they vote on Kyn, then immediately says they might be wrong, so I dunno. Slight elim lean. 
10) Removes vote from Kynedath. Gives vote count. 
11) Votes on Vapor to get controlled lynch. Says because the reasoning on votes on Vapor are the ones they agree with most. Slight elim feel, because earlier they said they didn’t really agree with the Vapor vote.
12) NAI discussion.
13) Tries to convince Elandera to remove vote from themselves, which is pretty NAI imo
14) NAI response about Elandera removing vote from Matrim.
15) Claims they don’t like Lotus’s vote on Mist, and doesn’t want Mist to die. NAI, because Mist turned out village. 
 

It seems a little like Matrim is trying to blend in and doing what other people want pretty quickly, but I dunno. Maybe I’m being a bit too strong about this. They are my top suspicion right now, but that's probably because they are just the second person I've analyzed. I do realize that Matrim has posted the most(I think), and I don't want to kill conversation, but I feel that if I'm still suspicious of them next turn I'll vote on them, unless I find someone more suspicious, because it can also give us more information. 

EDIT: (Sorry for the double post)

Edited September 1, 2020 by Experience

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

What are people's thoughts on Lotus?

[|TJ| he/him]

Quote

This is from a very early D1 post so it's... odd. Not suspicious, just odd.  I'm surprised there hasn't been more commentary on it. TJ, I'm wondering if maybe you'd be willing to reveal the reason for your vote at this point? Maybe you're planning on revealing it next turn.

@Frozen Mint, I have a feeling that I figured out an elim tell, so I will not be telling my reasons now because if Sart is an elim, he'd avoid doing it in the future. 

Quote

I could vote on a new lynch target but I don't really have anyone I want to vote on. So I'll add a vote to Mist and see what happens, although I suspect Sart might remove their vote on Mist since Mist placed a vote.

Got a question in return. Why would you assume Sart's vote on Mist was a poke (as I saw no much indication), and if you thought he was going to remove his vote, why were you inclined to vote for someone you thought might not get voted out. 

Quote

Shoot.. I typed the wrong name! Matrim. I said specifically earlier I didn't want to lynch you because you were active.

@Elandera, what was the correct name? Whom did you intend to vote on initially?

Quote

I'd rather vote Frozen Mint than Vapor/Mist. It's not much evidence, but it's mine, and much more than anything I have on the others.

@Ashbringer, what evidence? I can't find our reasoning to vote on Mint anywhere in the post from which I quoted. 

Quote

I don't really like Lotus's vote, tbh. And I realized Mist was D1 mislynched last LG, so sorry if that repeats :P.

This sort of feels like @Matrim's Dice throwing shade on Lotus just before rollover, like he knew there's a chance Mist would die, and he knew her alignment. I would have understood if he made this statement right after Lotus voted, because I agree with him, and it's uncharacteristic of Lotus as she usually refrains from voting (when village) if she's not sure whom to vote for in the first cycle. She has never "I voted because I felt I had to vote for someone". So, for the moment, I'm more suspicious of Lotus than Matrim. Votes on Vapor were from Illwei, Matrim and Mist, and as Mist flipped village, and I find Illwei village, in case Matrim is village too, that means some sort of deliberate attempt to save her, so Lotus' vote is even more suspicious in that context. It is further supported by Vapor's claims that she would have saved Mist, because as y'all have said, the only way she could have done it is to vote on herself, and "being nice to sister" is seriously doubtful because the Mist was voting on Vapor.  

So top suspicions - Vapor, Lotus. If Lotus flips village, focusing on Mat.

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

what was the correct name? Whom did you intend to vote on initially?

Hmm. That was phrased poorly (my initial statement, not yours). It wasn't really that it was the wrong name, but that I didn't mean to vote Matrim because of my earlier thinking. Let's see if I can recall my logic there. 

My options were Vapor, Mist, Mint, Kynedath, Matrim, and Sart.

I knew I didn't want to vote Vapor or Kynedath. I saw the reasoning and didn't really agree. I'd just removed my vote from Mint since she'd arrived. I didn't have any strong feelings one way or the other about Mist and Sart, and hadn't remembered seeing any reasoning for either. 

In the moment, that left me with Matrim, but I'd forgotten earlier that I'd specifically said I didn't want to lynch someone that active (those thought processes are difficult for me to remember while I'm at work and have a lot of other things distracting me). 

That ended with me placing and then removing the vote. I didn't vote on anyone because someone else tied it and I didn't have any particular motivation or reason to change it.

Sorry about the confusion. Again, I tend to have less logical progressions of thought while at work, and I type what comes to mind first rather than what's necessarily accurate. 

[|TJ| he/him]

Well, okay. That seems genuine enough. 

[Experience he/him]

Lotus -- Neutral(maybe slightish elim?)
1) NAI about something coming up IRL.
2) RP, Says won’t be very active, says don’t have any suspicious yet. NAI
3) NAI talk about rollover.
4) Says they will vote. -- NAI
5) Votes on Mist, says because they seem to be overly suspicious of sart, and wants to tame that. I believe that Sart voted on mist, so they followed that. Slight elim-y but really NAI, might be hiding reason of voting behind doing same as sart. I believe it had been at least mentioned before that sart is genreally mistrusted, so they might be hiding behind this. Not sure
6) NAI post.
Well, not much to go off of here. Really only NAI posts, so not much to go off of. Their vote on Mist is the only thing that could really mean anything, and I'm not even sure if that is AI. 

[Vapor she/her]

10 hours ago, Illwei said:

You...would have saved them...by....killing yourself? I mean- your vote was on Mint?

I'm unsure if i should take you saying that as suspicious, or as a villager who is trying to keep their sibling in the game because they're nice. I mean, could also be an elim trying to...be...nice? I'm more confused now this is fine

No, I would have defended her and stuff. Honestly, that would probably have just guaranteed that one of us died because of the suspicion on me.

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

I would like to clarify that they were not third on my suspicion list, but that they were performing one of my top three activities I find suspicious. list currently includes, in no particular order: 
 - Tagging other people to come talk when they themselves aren't talking
 - Posting vote counts unprompted
 - uh...I don't remember what this one is but I'll get back to you when I remember. 

EDIT: idk what it was, maybe there was only ever two, but I'm going to add "Asking questions but not answering them yourself" to the list I guess that's the new number three, and if i remember the old one I guess that's going to be number 4

I didn't post any vote counts. I'm not sure where you got that. What questions did I ask? I know I did tag people to come, but not to talk. I wasn't sure that they had seen this yet.

[Ashbringer he/him]

8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Ashbringer, what evidence? I can't find our reasoning to vote on Mint anywhere in the post from which I quoted

My reason was essentially that Mint was trying to get you to say why you suspected Sart, and that she seemed to be thinking it would be suspicious of you not to share. I don’t like that.

It also seemed like she was diverting attention after nearly getting contribution-crusaded.

[Mat he/him]

10 hours ago, Experience said:

9) Says they maybe jumped too far on Kynedath vote, but doesn’t retract. Feels like they are trying kinda hard to not bring attention to themselves. First they vote on Kyn, then immediately says they might be wrong, so I dunno. Slight elim lean. 

I was gonna retract then, but Ash voiced agreement on what I had said about Kyne, so I let it sit awhile longer. The vote itself was weird because I voted Kyne

1. Because I wanted to get a vote out there
2. Because I had zero concrete suspicions and at a glance Elk's comment on Kyne rang true to me
3. That's weird because the only suspicion I had voiced prior was Elk :P. Which I understand how that can be weird to look at from an outside angle.

10 hours ago, Experience said:

11) Votes on Vapor to get controlled lynch. Says because the reasoning on votes on Vapor are the ones they agree with most. Slight elim feel, because earlier they said they didn’t really agree with the Vapor vote.

I didn't mean I didn't agree with the Vapor vote earlier, just that I didn't agree with it enough to change my vote from Kyne right then. Once Elandera convinced me to switch off Kyne, Illwei's mention of Vapor was then the suspicion voiced that I agreed most with. I didn't love any of the lynch candidates last cycle, but it would've been useless to vote on another person with zero votes at that time.

8 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

What are people's thoughts on Lotus?

I think Lotus's vote on Mist last cycle was strange, as highlighted by my first post of this turn. It seemed a conscious decision over Vapor, in that there was little reasoning for Mist- if any- and the votes on Vapor were backed with a lot more evidence. Even if that evidence was D1 minimal. Also, her reason for voting Mist was around that Sart voted Mist, and Lotus always suspects Sart, so she's trying to tame that suspicion down with a vote on who Sart voted for. Or something, I find that reasoning strange.

8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

This sort of feels like @Matrim's Dice throwing shade on Lotus just before rollover, like he knew there's a chance Mist would die, and he knew her alignment. I would have understood if he made this statement right after Lotus voted, because I agree with him, and it's uncharacteristic of Lotus as she usually refrains from voting (when village) if she's not sure whom to vote for in the first cycle. She has never "I voted because I felt I had to vote for someone". So, for the moment, I'm more suspicious of Lotus than Matrim. Votes on Vapor were from Illwei, Matrim and Mist, and as Mist flipped village, and I find Illwei village, in case Matrim is village too, that means some sort of deliberate attempt to save her, so Lotus' vote is even more suspicious in that context. It is further supported by Vapor's claims that she would have saved Mist, because as y'all have said, the only way she could have done it is to vote on herself, and "being nice to sister" is seriously doubtful because the Mist was voting on Vapor.  

So top suspicions - Vapor, Lotus. If Lotus flips village, focusing on Mat.

I made the statement because of her vote, so I couldn't have made it before. I almost saved that comment for N1, but I threw it out there in the last seconds of the turn because I found the vote weird and reacted. I didn't have time to analyze it any further, so that was what my first posts were this turn. The possibility that Lotus made a conscious effort to save Vapor is one I'm investigating too, and it'd be a shame to lynch me if I'm wrong for the sole reason that I was wrong.

So, I am most suspicious of Vapor/Lotus as well, but I think it's either both or neither. I also still have the slight gut elim reads on Elk and Kyne, which is... interesting as Elk finds Kyne suspicious. This is the opposite of Vapor/Lotus, where I think either of Kyne/Elk could be an elim but not both. I also have a slight gut elim on Experience, idk if his analysis felt fake, or what (maybe it was that he finds me suspicious :P) but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now as a returning player.

I have a gut village read on Illwei, TJ, and a slight gut village on Mint, but-

Still wish to hear @Sart and @Frozen Mint's reasoning for their votes on Mist  

Edited September 1, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
Clarity

[+Lotus she/her]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So, I am most suspicious of Vapor/Lotus as well, but I think it's either both or neither. I also still have the slight gut elim reads on Elk and Kyne, which is... interesting as Elk finds Kyne suspicious. This is the opposite of Vapor/Lotus, where I think either of them could be an elim but not both. I also have a slight gut elim on Experience, idk if his analysis felt fake, or what (maybe it was that he finds me suspicious :P) but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now as a returning player.

Wait, there’s a contradiction here. In the first sentence you say that you think either both me and vapor are elims or neither, and then later you say either of us could be Elims but not both.

I’m not saying I find this suspicious, I just want clarity.

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Wait, there’s a contradiction here. In the first sentence you say that you think either both me and vapor are elims or neither, and then later you say either of us could be Elims but not both.

I’m not saying I find this suspicious, I just want clarity.

Yay lack of proof read wins again... -_-.

I was saying that I thought either you/Vapor were both elims or neither of you were, and that is contrary to Elk/Kyne, who I think one of either of them could be an elim but not both. The second one is referring to Kyne/Elk, apologies for lack of clear formatting :P.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[+Lotus she/her]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yay lack of proof read wins again... -_-.

I was saying that I thought either you/Vapor were both elims or neither of you were, and that is contrary to Elk/Kyne, who I think one of either of them could be an elim but not both. The second one is referring to Kyne/Elk, apologies for lack of clear formatting :P.

Ok, thank you. 

[Illwei]

2 hours ago, Vapor said:

I didn't post any vote counts. I'm not sure where you got that. What questions did I ask? I know I did tag people to come, but not to talk. I wasn't sure that they had seen this yet.

I never said you posted vote counts or asked questions. I- I said you performed one of the three activities. You seem awfully defensive there? but I mean villagers can be defensive too.

I thought the last post was a lot clearer on what I meant than the other post, but-

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Illwei

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

13 hours ago, Lotus said:

Yeah last minute I was like ‘wait we shouldn’t lynch Mist again’ but I didn’t want to make a last minute vote change...

Right, my thoughts on lotus: This seems a lot like covering to me. Sets off my suspicions, though that's just gut, so I asked others what they thought. No one else pointed out this post in specific, so I'm mostly willing to pass it off as just me.

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, my thoughts on lotus: This seems a lot like covering to me. Sets off my suspicions, though that's just gut, so I asked others what they thought. No one else pointed out this post in specific, so I'm mostly willing to pass it off as just me.

I did notice, and just didn't say anything specifically referring to that in my posts about her.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I did notice, and just didn't say anything specifically referring to that in my posts about her.

...why not?

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

...why not?

Because I already had a lot to say, and sorta just lumped that post into my reasoning that her vote on Mist was weird, both in timing and reasoning.