Magestar he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said: I mean, I don’t think we’ve played together enough for you to say ‘notorious’, but okay. Is there anything I could do to help your reads? Hmm. I don't really remember which games we've played together, or have a way to cross reference them, so I can't say for certain, but I distinctly remember consistently reading you as Elim in at least two or three games. I'm also pretty sure you weren't Elim in all of them. Perhaps notorious isn't quite the right word... in the very least, I don't feel very confident in my ability to read you. That's all I was really trying to say. Eh. Idk. I'll speak briefly about my read on you in the post after this one. 18 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: I've currently got Experience flagged for more things than any other player. However, to diversify the votes, at least initially, I'll place on Magestar. Again, none of my suspicions/reasons are concrete enough to be worth arguing over in the thread yet, so I'm not going to offer further explanation. Araris, I'm confused. Your voting is confusing me. 6 hours ago, TJ Shade said: Speaking about Araris: Started the vote on Mist with full intention on lynching them. Does not believe in poke votes. Does not seem to believe in tied votes either. Would rather vote on an already voted person to build a train. That's why their vote on Experience is odd. I believe no one had voted for Experience when they voted for him. Cited vague reasons. Then ended up voting for the same person Experience voted for. If you do not trust them, why do you vote with them? Similar odd behavior this cycle, their voting style opposite to that in the first cycle as they look to 'diversify' votes rather than build a train on their main suspect. 4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Responding to the post above: Just to quickly respond to this: I have a different voting pattern when I feel like the village knows nothing, and when there is enough information for an informed (or at least semi-informed) lynch. Early lynch trains force discussion to happen. Clearly, lots of good discussion is happening this cycle without me starting a lynch train (also, I think my vote on Mist C1 was pretty ineffective). [Italics mine] See, this is what's confusing me. Doesn't it make more sense to put some backing behind your votes if you're against poke votes and are trying to provoke discussion? I get not wanting to tip people off to what's making you suspicious of them; that's why I don't post suspicions unless it's for a lynch. That I understand. It prevents them from changing their behavior based on your input. But if you're really actively going to pursue a lynch, it doesn't make sense not to provide backing for it. Even if you don't have a lot of evidence, it's better than nothing. I get possibly having different types of voting patterns, but none of your votes make a lot of sense to me. I don't think I've played a ton with you, and it's possible I could just be misreading what's actually just your play style, but I'm getting Elim vibes. Kind of odd since I like a lot of what you're saying. But your posts and your voting just reads Elim to me. Not necessarily very strongly, but strong enough for an early second-cycle vote. Araris. I don't get the Experience lynch. I'm not seeing the evidence, I'm only seeing gut reads. Personally, I'm not getting those vibes from Experience. Interestingly, by voting on Araris, I'm kinda doing what he wants. I'm diversifying the lynch and I'm doing it not even halfway through the cycle. Discuss! Edited June 7, 2020 by Magestar grammar i guess 1
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 Araris had some suspicion D1 as well. Hm. If they flip village, it might be a maf play to try and get rid of a powerful player. But if the mafia were concerned about that, they wouldn’t have gone after devotary. Guess it’s possible the kill got redirected by a slider, but I find that unlikely. So I’d say the people after Araris now are most likely village, or at least not elims making a serious push. I agree with magestar in that the experience lynch seems a little weird. Sometimes people shake up their play styles to try something new, and I feel that we as a community should be accepting of that. Re:Coda, the other reason I wanted to keep him alive is because I knew he was a seeker, and felt that could be useful in certain scenarios. Especially when combined with certain other abilities. Magestar, I look forward to seeing your analysis of me! Also, please comment if you were stolen from, and how much. This could help us calculate how soon a theoretical elim thief could buy lerasium. 1
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 Devotary, huh? Not gonna read too much into it 'cause D1 kills are usually decided fairly randomly and noncommittally, but in general, killing a lower profile player says to me that the elims are fairly comfortable with the D1 lynch outcome and don't feel a need to get aggressive. Says they think there's at least a decent prospect of getting recently active villagers lynched. These are my reads, no explanation or context provided (will be provided on request): Drake- Village, Obviously Ashbringer- Village Araris- Slight Village Pyromancer- Slight Village Hats- Very Slight Village Experience- Neutral Elandera- Neutral Matrim's Dice- Neutral Mist- Neutral Xino- Neutral Karnage- No Read Elkanah- No Read Reading- No Read Emi- No Read Lahilt- No Read Walin- No Read God King- No Read TJ Shade- Slight Suspcion Ventyl- Slight Suspicion Kynedath- Slight Suspicion Magestar- Slight Suspicion It's getting harder to analyze what elims would do since I haven't been one in so long... Not as easy to put myself in their place (assuming you believe I'm not one in this game, that is). But a comprehensive reads list is helpful to the village, even if I don't know what I'm doing which is probable. More posts incoming. 1
Magestar he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said: Magestar, I look forward to seeing your analysis of me! Also, please comment if you were stolen from, and how much. This could help us calculate how soon a theoretical elim thief could buy lerasium. No wait now there's pressure. It's not that good. I'm not good at analysis. Also I wrote it before you said anything. Whatever. Here it is. Another point of discussion I keep seeing come up is suspicion of Pyro... as I said earlier, I'm not terribly good at reading them. But in the very least, I can confirm that their play style has always been very chaotic, at least when I've played with them. That's what I remember from before my hiatus, that's what I've heard has been the case since, and it's also what probably led me to read them as Elim as often as I did. I can't be entirely sure, but I'm getting a fairly village read on them, taking into account the fact that most of my "elim" read on them would just be from what's basically their normal play style. Plus, I don't think they'd have done the Shouty Shout thing as hard as they have if they were an Elim. That's the big thing for me. Pyro has been really active in that PM, and from what I know has also been pretty active in a lot of other PMs. That tends to make me think they're not also in a doc, unless the doc they're in is super quiet. Other reads I don't mind sharing... I'm having trouble getting a read on Elandera. Pinch hitters are tough. They also pinged all the people I wanted to ping, which reads well, I guess? I'm going to have to take another look at the person they subbed in for before making any comments, but my early read on them is balanced. I'm getting equal parts Elim vibes and Village vibes from them. The other people I'd like to hear more have mostly been pinged already... I don't think @xinoehp512 or @Emi have been pinged yet, or commented this cycle. I know Emi has been on, too. I haven't been stolen from. I don't have much coin. And that’s all for this post. Pyro, that’s my read on you right now. Hesitant village read. More posts to come. Edited June 7, 2020 by Magestar questions 1
Araris Valerian he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 The two main things I have against Experience are the early vote on Joe, and a comment on Mist having 3 votes. Also, Experience was invovled in the most posts war, and I'm mildly suspicious of everyone there (at least more than if they weren't). They are both sort of small things, which can probably be explained easily. But I still feel like an elim would be more likely to do each of them. @The Young Pyromancer The elims are basically guaranteed to get the lerasium if they want it, since they can pass boxings, and steal 20% on kills. They don't need a thief. I'd also like to echo the call for @Lahilt to explain the vote on Experience. I doubt you have the same reasons for voting on them as I did. Also, for what it's worth, either Xino is trying to fool everyone, or he's a Gasper. Each of his D1 posts that I looked at had exactly 200 words (ignoring the quotes), which means he gets cash, and can still store. He also, by my incomplete tally, probably has more money than any living player as well. @DrakeMarshall could you clarify the difference between "no read" and "neutral"? Also, I feel like Karnage has been involved enough to get a read on, so I'm curious why you have no read on him.
Mist she/her Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 @Araris Valerian, boxings cannot be passed. Items can. 1
Magestar he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 (edited) On the Twinborn discussion; I'm willing to admit to the thread that I am indeed a Twinborn. My personal theory was that Twinborn were a way for Striker to get some of the strategically "weaker" or less exciting roles into the game without having any player have too boring or too useless of a role... although if everyone's a Twinborn maybe that's just me. It does raise the question of game balance... I can't help but wonder what the Elim team looks like. I don't really know how Striker does his distributions, but Role Madness games tend to be odd to begin with so I'm curious what this Twinborn filled game will look like after it's over. I'm also interested that there was only one kill last night. Do we have a cautious or inactive village coinshot, or none at all? It seems there's a lot of possible protection in this game, so I'd be surprised if there was no village coinshot at all. I'd bet on cautious or inactive. 20 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: These are my reads, no explanation or context provided (will be provided on request): Drake- Village, Obviously Ashbringer- Village Araris- Slight Village Pyromancer- Slight Village Hats- Very Slight Village Experience- Neutral Elandera- Neutral Matrim's Dice- Neutral Mist- Neutral Xino- Neutral Karnage- No Read Elkanah- No Read Reading- No Read Emi- No Read Lahilt- No Read Walin- No Read God King- No Read TJ Shade- Slight Suspcion Ventyl- Slight Suspicion Kynedath- Slight Suspicion Magestar- Slight Suspicion Cool. I'll request some explanation, for the sake of discussion. You're the second or third person to read me as Elim, and while that's not entirely abnormal for me, I'm curious what it is that makes me give that vibe. 12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: The two main things I have against Experience are the early vote on Joe, and a comment on Mist having 3 votes. Also, Experience was invovled in the most posts war, and I'm mildly suspicious of everyone there (at least more than if they weren't). They are both sort of small things, which can probably be explained easily. But I still feel like an elim would be more likely to do each of them. @The Young Pyromancer The elims are basically guaranteed to get the lerasium if they want it, since they can pass boxings, and steal 20% on kills. They don't need a thief. I'd also like to echo the call for @Lahilt to explain the vote on Experience. I doubt you have the same reasons for voting on them as I did. Also, for what it's worth, either Xino is trying to fool everyone, or he's a Gasper. Each of his D1 posts that I looked at had exactly 200 words (ignoring the quotes), which means he gets cash, and can still store. He also, by my incomplete tally, probably has more money than any living player as well. @DrakeMarshall could you clarify the difference between "no read" and "neutral"? Also, I feel like Karnage has been involved enough to get a read on, so I'm curious why you have no read on him. Drake Marshall's posts also tended to have about 200 words in the night cycle. Several of them had 199, which seemed bizarre to me. Not sure how important it is. I didn't count all of them, so I don't know for sure it's a pattern. For me, the difference between no read and neutral is that no read means I've got nothing on them and neutral means my Elim and Village reads balance. I'm kind of surprised you didn't defend yourself. You didn't even mention my vote or analysis. Edited June 7, 2020 by Magestar one of my stuck out tongue faces disappeared. I need all of them. :P
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 Wow, this thread is heating up! @DrakeMarshall, can you explain you reading on me?
Araris Valerian he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Magestar said: I'm kind of surprised you didn't defend yourself. You didn't even mention my vote or analysis. I don't think you made a coherent enough argument against me to defend from. You mostly said that you didn't understand if what I was doing was part of my playstyle or not. Also, I don't think enough people have me on their suspicion radar that there is any pressure to defend. I think I also had a slight suspicion of Ventyl, but I can't recall what it was for, I'll have to go back and check. However, a lack of substantial contribution to this cycle's lynch discussion is a bit of a red flag. 1
Magestar he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I don't think you made a coherent enough argument against me to defend from. You mostly said that you didn't understand if what I was doing was part of my playstyle or not. Also, I don't think enough people have me on their suspicion radar that there is any pressure to defend. Dang that hurts. Guess I'll come back when I can make coherent arguments.
Ashbringer he/him Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 In addition to Coda not having any Feruchemy abilities, I can confirm that not everyone has multiple roles. I’m just a Misting. I want a Feruchemy spike... Ventyl knows my role (and I know his, assuming he told me the truth, but I’m not telling), but he seemed easily convinced of my innocence. Other than that, he seemed a little off toward how quickly he went from suspecting me to confiding in me. I trust him, but more out of the hope that village!Ventyl and I working together can be a good team than any real reading. I still read him neutral, but am wary (which is essentially how I’m reacting to most people... As to the lynch, poking Karnage. @Karnage, I’d like to see your take on what happened with the voting on Friday. The more viewpoints we can get on the situation, the easier we can pin down if someone (and who) was behind it all, or if it was just a bandwagon that lost a wheel or three.
Karnage Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 Well, lets see. I have no idea why so many people voted on me near the end. Maybe some ploy by the elims to get a near- inactive like Devotery. Honestly all I did was store last round so, I didn't do anything with vote manipulation, not that my ability can do anything. I am not sure what made the bandwagon fail but I am glad that it did fail. As for now I will put a vote on Emi. No reason other than just to hear their thoughts.
xinoehp512 he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) All this discussion in and about PM's is leaving me confused... I've never been good at using PM's myself, nor at analyzing other's usage of them. I am glad people exist that can take advantage of them, because I’ve seen great things done by using them in the past, but I myself have never been able to fully grasp them. Guess my non-sociality rubs off in SE... Keeping up with the thread and maintaining my post rate last cycle nearly wiped me out. I’m glad to see that the highest activity reward has been adjusted to discourage high-volume low-content posting. Unfortunately, I’ve been rather busy so far this cycle, and am likely to be unable to get on tomorrow at all. I feel sympathy for @Karnage… although I am curious what comments they have about the lynch train that formed on them. As for my vote, I don’t really have the time to do a full dig-through of the mountain of posts that was last cycle right now… in the interest of getting a vote out, Araris. You’ve been kind of quiet about your reasonings, and I’m curious as to where you’re pulling these suspicions from. Edit: ninja’d by Karnage. Edited June 8, 2020 by xinoehp512
Ashbringer he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 The defendant is present and pleads “I have no idea”. His alibi stands that he was storing at the time of the incident. Hmm. Really it’s not your actions but your predicament that place you under my suspicion. It could be just an inactive lynch that derailed itself, but the only vote manipulation besides Reading’s singular vote on Mist was the one Soothing on Hatz. By that point, you should have been safe from the lynch, and Soothing Hatz would have been contradictory toward your own attempted vote. Your vote shall stay, for now, but I am interested in hearing from and about some of the people more active last round who have yet to show in force. Emi, along with @Matrim's_Dice and @Kynedath. Any thoughts? Suspicions? Anyone willing to claim or hypothesize to Hatz’s Soother? Plus, I’m interested to see if Pyro’s vote will stick around this time. But I’m fine with lynching another target. (Ninja’d by Xino, although not to much effect.) 1
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 Quoting posts I want to respond to one by one. This is gonna be broken into multiple posts. If you've mentioned me, I will get to it eventually and respond, I'm just responding in chronological order. 20 hours ago, Ashbringer said: My suspicion was that if Karnage is elim, having a group get him very close to being lynched and reversing it very last-minute would be a good way to draw suspicion away from Karnage. And Pyro organized both the Karnage voting and the swap to Hatz. I will just say here and now that I don't personally suspect Karnage any more or less from the fact that they got voted on for a short period of time before the votes switched to somebody else, and I kind of disagree with the reasoning of anyone who does. I will also say I didn't think the reasons for switching off of Karnage were particularly unclear? But more on that later. 17 hours ago, TJ Shade said: This is such a bad strategy. Why would you rather lynch someone who has given no possible indication as to whether they are village or elim? Granted not many people give such indication this early in the game, but something can be inferred from the posts here. Would you rather lynch a possible inactive villager than a possible elim suspect no matter who small the suspicion is? I'd imagine the elims would prod their inactive teammate to be a little more active. Going under the radar seems to be no. 1 suspicion for being an elim so they'd try to blend in. I'd reckon the chances of an inactive villager in C1 is much higher than an inactive elim in C1. Not necessarily bad strategy. If you trust all the people you have reads on, it follows that you should lynch somebody you don't have a read on. Also, eliminators sometimes have it a little too easy hiding in the pool of less active players. From a meta perspective I think that being part of that pool of players should always come with a risk of being singled out and lynched. Active players aren't particularly more likely to be eliminators and they do tend to make the game more interesting regardless of alignment.
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) @Ashbringer soothing doesn't work like that. You've repeatedly gotten confused about this. Soothing cancels the vote OF a player, not a vote ON a player. EDIT: Flame On! Edited June 8, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer
Shard of Reading he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 So, I clarified on my PM with striker and it is storing that canceled my vote.
Ashbringer he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said: @Ashbringer soothing doesn't work like that. You've repeatedly gotten confused about this. Soothing cancels the vote OF a player, not a vote ON a player. EDIT: Flame On! Ohhhh. So someone could have Soothed a vote before it got changed. That makes more sense. Edit: Right? Edit Edit: Gotcha Reading, although you may have said that already. It’s not something that really points to anything. Edited June 8, 2020 by Ashbringer
Magestar he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Ashbringer said: Ventyl knows my role (and I know his, assuming he told me the truth, but I’m not telling), but he seemed easily convinced of my innocence. Other than that, he seemed a little off toward how quickly he went from suspecting me to confiding in me. I trust him, but more out of the hope that village!Ventyl and I working together can be a good team than any real reading. I'd like to hear more from @Ventyl about their thoughts on the game in general. Just now, Shard of Reading said: So, I clarified on my PM with striker and it is storing that canceled my vote. Ah. Well that's good to know. It does begin to confirm my earlier suspicion that no soothers were involved with the D1 lynch shenanagins, although it's still possible that there was a single soother. 7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Also, eliminators sometimes have it a little too easy hiding in the pool of less active players. From a meta perspective I think that being part of that pool of players should always come with a risk of being singled out and lynched. Active players aren't particularly more likely to be eliminators and they do tend to make the game more interesting regardless of alignment. I agree with this. I believe someone said earlier that Elims would tend to nudge each other into being more active, but from my experience being on Elim teams, this is neither always effective nor always the case. Lynching actives can also be dangerous to the village. I'm not sure how I feel about the Karnage lynch. If we're going for someone inactive, there are better choices, and I'm not really seeing the suspicions. Ash's suspicions are more related to the scenario surrounding yesterdays vote, and Pyro seems to be of the philosophy that any lynch is a good lynch. I guess I'm just interested to see how it progresses. If anyone has any real suspicions of Karnage from the thread, I'd love to hear them. If not, I'm just a teeny bit paranoid it's an Elim diversion. I'll probably do some RP in a bit, then call it a night and see what the thread looks like in the morning, unless something big comes up in the next half hour or so.
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magestar said: and Pyro seems to be of the philosophy that any lynch is a good lynch. More like how Araris puts pressure on people with his stab-thingy. Newbie mafia often notice that their teammate is under pressure, and so rush to defend them.
Experience he/him Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) Don't have much time to post right now. @Lahilt, do you have a reason that you're voting on me? Edited June 8, 2020 by Experience Happy Pyro?
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