Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[DeTess she/her]

2 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Why would you be opposed to lynching Pyro this cycle? Bartenders can't kill until next cycle. 

I know, but lynching pyro this cycle makes the lynch pretty much a foregone conclusion, which reduces the amount of info from discussion we get. Unless you have reason to believe pyro has role we need to take off the field right now, I think lynching Pyro this cycle rather than leaving him to the bartenders will do more harm than good because it means we lose quite a bit of momentum wrt discussion.

[little wilson she/her]

esp given the lack of momentum we had last turn with discussion given straws lynch. yes we got a lot of info but that was more just luck than anything else

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Yep

Hmm. I dunno. Fura's name was specifically mentioned in your first post.

Just now, DeTess said:

I know, but lynching pyro this cycle makes the lynch pretty much a foregone conclusion, which reduces the amount of info from discussion we get. Unless you have reason to believe pyro has role we need to take off the field right now, I think lynching Pyro this cycle rather than leaving him to the bartenders will do more harm than good because it means we lose quite a bit of momentum wrt discussion.

This is a good point. Pyro is probably a stalker which would give the elim team more info every cycle, that's what he claimed yesterday and I'm inclined to believe him. Stalker is an okay role but I think if we have a suspect for bleeder, with Flogs supposedly revealed we should deal with them ASAP.

For now, Pyro Elkanah

[Karnage]

1 hour ago, Shard of Reading said:

Someone had to otherwise you would be dead.

What are you talking about. All I accounted for was the Bleeder Kill. Do you know something otherwise. Some inside info perhaps?

With the discussion about Pyro, I think it could make sense to leave him in, anything he does might give us info and we will always have a elim lynch ready to go when we need it. We might want to focus more on finding the other elims for now.

I am not sure who else I am suspicions of tho. With the three of my main suspicions dying last night. Anybody have a suspicions with stuff to back it up. I think I might spend a little time in a few hours looking back through the threads.

Pyro, We will lynch when we want to. How about that. The only problem with leaving them alive is that we don't know what abilities they have. Should we be scared enough of them to lynch them now instead of trying to find other elims?

I see that two people have voted Elk, why is that?

Edited May 29, 2020 by Karnage

[Elkanah he/him]

8 minutes ago, little wilson said:

unlikely the elims have a bartender and if they did i dont think theyd attack striker - its easy to think that now when we see that he had two good roles but multiple people were sus of him so id think that kill would be more likely from a village bartender.

and elk its always good to kill elim aman no matter what. thats just good practice - esp since he's done it not once but twiiiiiccce. why people leave him alive when hes known elim i dont getttt it.

but as i said pyro not aman. i not worried so much about him if we leave him alive for a turn or two until the bartender(s) can clear him out. esp when he's a (self-claimed but im inclined to believe most of the self-defeatist things pyro said last cycle after claiming elim) stalker.

anywayz i know why elks voting pyro - hes probs bleeder and he wants to make the pyro lynch as inevitable as the straw lynch last cycle. but why you other people going after the elim when we gots a bleeder out there?

shouldnt we be kinda thinking about that? yes the elims are a threat and we gotta clear them out but given that karnage has claimed flogs (which im not actually skeptical of that claim - i was inclined to believe it from the second he said it while maintaining enough doubt to kill him if things didnt add up with his claim in a couple cycles but i was like 95% believing of that claim) and we kiiiiinnnda dont want flogs to die.

guessin you missed this little answer from joe about double taps.

pyro seemed pretty honest when he mentioned it in the thread. self-defeatist and straightforward about it. dont like you being evasive.

Ah, so I did. 

As promised, I will reveal one of my abilities is a Smuggler. I invite anyone else to explain where Araris'vote went cycle one. Why, you ask, did I soothe his vote. I wanted to orchestrate a tie. Surely if one death cycle one got us information, three or even four would have helped exponentially.

Sadly, rollover is at three am my time and I slept through the alarm I set to help ensure the deaths.

I invite anyone who wants to to counterclaim. If no one comes, I am a Smuggler and therefore not bleeder. Pyro outing me shows I'm not a constable

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Karnage said:

I see that two people have voted Elk, why is that?

Current Bleeder suspect. Also, why is your Pyro vote green? Is it a retract without a vote, cause you forgot?

[little wilson she/her]

5 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

As promised, I will reveal one of my abilities is a Smuggler. I invite anyone else to explain where Araris'vote went cycle one. Why, you ask, did I soothe his vote. I wanted to orchestrate a tie. Surely if one death cycle one got us information, three or even four would have helped exponentially.

I invite anyone who wants to to counterclaim. If no one comes, I am a Smuggler and therefore not bleeder. Pyro outing me shows I'm not a constable

you could be both bleeder and a smuggler - doesn't mean you smuggled anyones vote c1. see araris voted alongside 6 other people and we dont know if it was araris vote that got cancelled. there was an impersonator that turn as well and we dont know if the impersonator voted on straw or karnage since both are missing votes. this is not a definitive claim imo.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

22 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Did I? I know Young Pyromancer claimed I did to Wilson, and it looks like that was a way to take some heat off of Fura who did the killing. [Joe], would double taps show up in the write up? If so, that's all the evidence you need that I didn't kill Araris. If not, then I can share one of my roles.

You addressed Pyro's claim by saying:

Quote

Also, I promise it's not what you think, [Pyro]. I am not Bleeder.

which suggests that his scan was accurate. Did you get rid of a vote this past cycle? I don't really see a reason for you to have done so, but there were a lot of vote manipulations anyway.

11 minutes ago, Karnage said:

What are you talking about. All I accounted for was the Bleeder Kill. Do you know something otherwise. Some inside info perhaps?

Most people need bodyguard protection not to die, but if you are Flogs+tycoon and your lynch immunity meant you didn't lose your extra life, you could have survived even without protection. I can see why Striker would have chosen to kill instead of protect you, but if there are other bodyguards around they should probably guard you this cycle.

Nobody bothered to tell me that renowned only get one role chosen randomly even after I claimed otherwise, but with that being the case it will be difficult to check Elkanah's dual role claim.

[Kynedath]

I'm indecisive about lynching pyro this turn. On one hand if we leave them alive as a known elim then we can focus on other players and have good discussion that doesn't get bogged down with a surefire lynch. I really like that idea, I do! I think it would be a smart move so long as we trust the bartenders to actually kill them, which I feel is a reasonable assumption to make.

On the other hand, I remember one of the games Aman did that, it was my first game actually. It was later game so it had more of an impact than it would probably have here, however it still had a fairly large impact on the game. and the elims ended up winning handsomely because Aman was so hecking good at poiting us in the wrong directions. While Pyro may not be on the same level as Aman, it's still going to be very difficult for me personally to ignore what they're saying, and I am afraid that they're trolling is going to subliminally affect decisions I make.

Not to mention that if we leave them alive it will leave the elims with a player who can take the vote action without having to risk another stalker finding them. Sure there is an escort to deal with, but then it just turns into an IKYK.

For now I think that the pros of leaving them alive outweigh the cons, but it's a close race in my estimation. So here are my other suspicions.

Elkanah seems to be handling this situation pretty oddly, I think that their roleclaim is odd. Like wilson pointed out it is full of holes and doesn't prove they aren't Bleeder. I didn't suspect them until people started accusing them which makes sense I think if they were bleeder since the added pressure of being accused would make them crack a bit I feel. It would do so to most players. On the other hand, Elkanah did provide a possible explanation for their targeting of Araris, and there can really only be so many vote manip roles, and I have a hard time seeing Bleeder use their first action to not use one of their bleeder abilities.

I'm suspicious of Elkanah, but at the moment I'm having trouble not looking at both sides of the coin and double guessing myself. I think  I'll stop my analysis here and come back when I have a clearer mind. I'll pop my vote on Elkanah for now, but I don't know if it'll stay there until the end of the cycle.

[Mat he/him]

Spoiler

8 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I'm indecisive about lynching pyro this turn. On one hand if we leave them alive as a known elim then we can focus on other players and have good discussion that doesn't get bogged down with a surefire lynch. I really like that idea, I do! I think it would be a smart move so long as we trust the bartenders to actually kill them, which I feel is a reasonable assumption to make.

On the other hand, I remember one of the games Aman did that, it was my first game actually. It was later game so it had more of an impact than it would probably have here, however it still had a fairly large impact on the game. and the elims ended up winning handsomely because Aman was so hecking good at poiting us in the wrong directions. While Pyro may not be on the same level as Aman, it's still going to be very difficult for me personally to ignore what they're saying, and I am afraid that they're trolling is going to subliminally affect decisions I make.

Not to mention that if we leave them alive it will leave the elims with a player who can take the vote action without having to risk another stalker finding them. Sure there is an escort to deal with, but then it just turns into an IKYK.

For now I think that the pros of leaving them alive outweigh the cons, but it's a close race in my estimation. So here are my other suspicions.

Elkanah seems to be handling this situation pretty oddly, I think that their roleclaim is odd. Like wilson pointed out it is full of holes and doesn't prove they aren't Bleeder. I didn't suspect them until people started accusing them which makes sense I think if they were bleeder since the added pressure of being accused would make them crack a bit I feel. It would do so to most players. On the other hand, Elkanah did provide a possible explanation for their targeting of Araris, and there can really only be so many vote manip roles, and I have a hard time seeing Bleeder use their first action to not use one of their bleeder abilities.

I'm suspicious of Elkanah, but at the moment I'm having trouble not looking at both sides of the coin and double guessing myself. I think  I'll stop my analysis here and come back when I have a clearer mind. I'll pop my vote on Elkanah for now, but I don't know if it'll stay there until the end of the cycle.

 

This basically sums up my thoughts pretty well. I'm feeling pretty similar about lynching Pyro, if we don't this cycle then we shouldn't probably next cycle since by then bartenders will be a factor. I agree with you in saying pyro's trolling will affect my responses whether I want them to or not, unfortunately.

I still want to hear more in depth analysis from  @Lord_Silberfarben, @Dot, and @The_God_King as they have either had little-none because of RP, or just have generally stayed quiet.

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

I went back to do some analysis, and there are a lot of posts to sift through! 

Elkanah

Did not vote C1 and voted on Fura C2. They approached the outing of Straw very cautiously, yet decided not to vote on them, instead focusing on Fura.

Quote

I need to sleep, for now I'll vote on Furamirionind. Straw is very lynched so it doesn't especially matter for whom I vote.

I read this as distancing. Elk expressed mild suspicion of Fura throughout C2, but there they didn't bring much evidence forward. Since we know that Fura was a Constable, this puts Elk in a better light, but its seems their vote on Fura was more of a distraction from the main Straw lynch. Add in this role conundrum and I'm pretty suspicious of them.

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

I know, but lynching pyro this cycle makes the lynch pretty much a foregone conclusion, which reduces the amount of info from discussion we get. Unless you have reason to believe pyro has role we need to take off the field right now, I think lynching Pyro this cycle rather than leaving him to the bartenders will do more harm than good because it means we lose quite a bit of momentum wrt discussion.

Understandable. I agree. I'm putting my vote on Elkanah for now, but like Kynedath, I'll see how the cycle progresses.

[Elkanah he/him]

57 minutes ago, little wilson said:

you could be both bleeder and a smuggler - doesn't mean you smuggled anyones vote c1. see araris voted alongside 6 other people and we dont know if it was araris vote that got cancelled. there was an impersonator that turn as well and we dont know if the impersonator voted on straw or karnage since both are missing votes. this is not a definitive claim imo.

Ah, but therin lies my fiendish cunning. 

A. Why would bleeder waste time smuggling even if she could?

B. I have to assume Matrim, Wilson, Devotary and Kynedath did not soothe any of those votes or they'd have said so. No one else did. Only I and I can tell you which vote was soothed. Until someone else claims to have soothed a vote off Karnage, Occam's razor shows I am not bleeder.

55 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You addressed Pyro's claim by saying:

which suggests that his scan was accurate. Did you get rid of a vote this past cycle? I don't really see a reason for you to have done so, but there were a lot of vote manipulations anyway.

Most people need bodyguard protection not to die, but if you are Flogs+tycoon and your lynch immunity meant you didn't lose your extra life, you could have survived even without protection. I can see why Striker would have chosen to kill instead of protect you, but if there are other bodyguards around they should probably guard you this cycle.

Nobody bothered to tell me that renowned only get one role chosen randomly even after I claimed otherwise, but with that being the case it will be difficult to check Elkanah's dual role claim.

I see. As a matter of fact I did soothe a vote last cycle, because I figured I might as well. As you State, it's far less important who this time.

[Shard of Reading he/him]

1 hour ago, Karnage said:

What are you talking about. All I accounted for was the Bleeder Kill. Do you know something otherwise. Some inside info perhaps?

If you were attacked someone had to protect you because you don't have the bodyguard ability like bleeder.

Also I won't be able to post this weekend. Just a heads up.

[Karnage]

Oops I forgot to red highlight my new vote. Elkanah. Still not so sure about that vote but I will be back in a while.

[Mat he/him]

25 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

If you were attacked someone had to protect you because you don't have the bodyguard ability like bleeder.

He's got Gambling Tycoon ability, that protected him. Presumably. 

[Bugsy he/him]

8 hours ago, DeTess said:

Given the amount of extra kills, there were at least two village bartenders, though one of those might have been Striker. Still, that means we've got one left. For this reason, I'd like to say I'm against lynching Pyro this cycle, despite them being a revealed elim. We know there are village bartenders that could take care of that, and going for a lynch on another revealed elim again could end up with us short on info afterwards. So, having said that I'm going to put a vote on the archivist for now. Among those living and not pyro, I'm most suspicious of Archivist and Sart right now.

I really don't like this. I think it's likely the Elims have a bodyguard, and there's no way that bodyguard doesn't protect Pyro on Cycle 4. It also opens the door for an extortionist to redirect the kill, or for Pyro to be a Tycoon, or any other number of complicating factors that keep us from getting what should be a sure kill. 

2 hours ago, little wilson said:

me actually agree with tess bout the pyro - mostly cuz me is hoping leaving pyro alive for a little longer might give info. of course me saying this turns everything he says into an iyky but iiiiiii doooooonnntt caaaarrreee.

he not aman. he being outed elim left alive dont scare me.

not sure where to vote yet. maybe archivist? maybe br following the dead orlok's hunch? my phone wants to capitalize orlok's name. me must reteach it that the lowercase way is the correct way. the only way.

Hmm. I'm suspicious about Tess, but you seem good this game and I think I trust your instinct on this one. 

IIRC, Orlok was suspicious of BR and Shard, right? I'm going to take a deeper look at some of his posts tonight, but if you know some of his reasoning from PMs I'd love to hear it. 

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Ah, so I did. 

As promised, I will reveal one of my abilities is a Smuggler. I invite anyone else to explain where Araris'vote went cycle one. Why, you ask, did I soothe his vote. I wanted to orchestrate a tie. Surely if one death cycle one got us information, three or even four would have helped exponentially.

Sadly, rollover is at three am my time and I slept through the alarm I set to help ensure the deaths.

I invite anyone who wants to to counterclaim. If no one comes, I am a Smuggler and therefore not bleeder. Pyro outing me shows I'm not a constable

I don't think this is very persuasive. We know one of the seven votes on Karnage was cancelled, but we have no proof that it was Araris', and whoever it was might have good reason not to claim.

If I'm remembering right, the Dowser is a village smuggler, and I doubt they'd claim smuggler publicly unless they want to make themselves the target of the 8th Octant Constable. I think it's entirely plausible you're bluffing and just hoping the Dowser isn't willing to counterclaim. Or it could even be that you're hoping they do, depending on who exactly you are.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

To whomever redirected me to myself:

You really think I would execute the elim kill? Even though I was outed?

[DeTess she/her]

3 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

I really don't like this. I think it's likely the Elims have a bodyguard, and there's no way that bodyguard doesn't protect Pyro on Cycle 4. It also opens the door for an extortionist to redirect the kill, or for Pyro to be a Tycoon, or any other number of complicating factors that keep us from getting what should be a sure kill. 

I mean, if people decide its too risky we can always decide to lynch Pyro at the end of this cycle. But lets do so after having had a proper lynch discussion first.

(speaking of discussion, I'll promise I do more than just respond to me being quoted before the cycle is over, but today really wasn't a good day for me. I'll see what I can do tomorrow though)

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

To whomever redirected me to myself:

You really think I would execute the elim kill? Even though I was outed?

To my understanding the elim kill is decided on in the doc, right? By all the elims. How would you 'execute an elim kill'? Or do I just not understand something.

[Bugsy he/him]

9 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

To whomever redirected me to myself:

You really think I would execute the elim kill? Even though I was outed?

Hah, I actually thought there was a chance you'd do it this cycle, and that was one of the more plausible reasons I saw to let you live today  

Guess that plan is shot. Oh well  

Edit: @Matrim's_Dice One of the Elims has to send in the kill as their action each cycle. Only one of them can do it. Apparently, an extortionist got the idea of making Pyro target himself last turn, in the hopes that he'd use the elim kill and be forced to attack himself. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Bugsy

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Yeah. I think I was the one who actually suggested using extortionists to force an elim to execute the kill, so the extortionist was probably a newbie.

[Bugsy he/him]

1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Yeah. I think I was the one who actually suggested using extortionists to force an elim to execute the kill, so the extortionist was probably a newbie.

Could be. That's an oversight I made too, though, so it could just be an older player who's rusty   

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

@little wilson, get back in the elim doc. I have a question for you.

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

@little wilson, get back in the elim doc. I have a question for you.

trololololooloollooollloollolo

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Well of course I didn't actually mean wilson. I meant someone else.