Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat

[StrikerEZ]

Well shoot, I definitely had the votes mixed up in my head. If I had realized that Aman had 4 votes, I definitely would’ve added a vote on Fifth. At least that way we could’ve lynched someone I was more certain was actually likely to be the inquisitor. 

Also, I must’ve forgot that Aman had switched his vote off himself before I took my vote off him last cycle. Either way, I still think he left his vote on himself a lot longer than I would’ve expected from an Inquisitor. I guess I was right. 

[DeTess]

Okay, just a quick comment before I go to bed. One thing that helped the village during LG32 was the soothers using their powers to essentially make themselves confirmed good as long as their soothes went through. This made them basically inconvertible and unlynchable, while also being an obvious target for the night kill and therefore often getting protection. Aman's death effectively shuts a repeat of that strategy down, assuming that the inquisitor didn't already have a spike to make it more difficult. I wonder if the inquisitor knew this, and if it influenced their stance towards the Aman lynch. Its not much to go by, but if I find enough spare time in the coming days I'll see if this tread leads to anything.

[Fifth Scholar]

To Aman; my apologies, obviously, for the unwarranted suspicion, but I was acting on the information I thought best at the time, and your stances on allowing the Inquisitor to convert didn’t sit well with me. In the end, though, I suppose you did get what you wanted

One more helpful aspect of Aman’s death is that we can broaden our focus slightly; we were all a little guilty, myself included, of too exclusive a focus on him. In particular, those who I feel hedged a bit much on yesterday’s lynch, as well as the ones who seemed content to remain on the fringes of discussion, merit a closer look. We’ll see what the Night brings, though. 

[Haelbarde]

1 hour ago, RayOfSunshine said:

Sup guys, I'm here.

I'm vanilla btw. So we killed a misting already?

Argh. Don't roleclaim immediately...

---

Sigh, that was a lot to happen. I'll need to read through it all again carefully.

RIP Aman. Really wish you hadn't died...

@Straw Is a conversion an action?

[Straw]

22 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Argh. Don't roleclaim immediately...

 

---

Sigh, that was a lot to happen. I'll need to read through it all again carefully.

RIP Aman. Really wish you hadn't died...

@Straw Is a conversion an action?

Conversion is an action.

[+Ark1002]

3 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

we were all a little guilty, myself included, of too exclusive a focus on him.

I wasn't

 

2 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Argh. Don't roleclaim immediately...

 

did it.

[Young Bard]

OK. So, there are a few people I think we can rule out from the previous day (I was considering waiting until tomorrow so I wouldn't put a "GOOD CONVERT" sign on these people with flashing neon lights, but I suspect most people would come up with a fairly similar list anyway, and me putting this message here means that it becomes much more of an IKYK gamble for the Inquisitor to convert them. )

Unlikely Inquisitors:

Devotary - Their tone and behaviour seems fairly villager-y to me as a gut read, where normally they seem pretty neutral to me - I think it was Fifth that mentioned the exact same feeling independently, which makes me more confident that Devotary's probably a villager.

BR - I have a pretty good gut read on BR right now.

Araris - Araris has been very open with their thoughts - from experience, I'm fairly certain Inquisitor Araris would be much more likely to lurk in the shadows.

Stink - Controversial pick here, and the only one that I think I really have to justify in this list. I (like most people, it seems) am in a PM with them, and I really just can't picture them as the Inquisitor - I'm getting much more of a care-free vibe from them than I'd expect if they were the Inquisitor. It's the one that's most likely to change as I see more of their opinions and we have more information, but I think for now I'm comfortable placing them in this category.

There are some people who I don't think there are enough posts to analyse yet, and so I'm not going to bother analysing yet because I'll only make myself paranoid:

Ark (Ray of Sunshine), Doc (I'm in a PM with Doc right now, but it's mainly just catching up/NAI content), Snipexe, shanerockes, Rathmaskal, and Sart.

So that leaves potential Inquisitors that I want to do analysis on as:

Hael, Burnt, Striker, Lumgol, Randuir, and Fifth.

Of those, I think the most likely Inquisitors would be Lumgol, Hael, and then Burnt or Rand, in that order, but that's going off the top of my head before I've done any proper analysis, and may change once I do. Striker and Fifth I don't think are the Inquisitors, but I don't have quite enough trust in them to rule them out of my analysis just yet, and want to do a bit more analysis first.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay so last cycle Aman asked me towards the end (which I saw after rollover cuz I closed at work) why I thought fifth was village. But I'd like to point out that I never said he was. I only voted Aman when I did because he was in the lead and I was trying to avoid a tie (counting in Aman's soothing) because a lot of people seemed to either forget that a tie would kill all of the people or they didnt care which is kinda concerning to me. Y'all are really bloodthirsty this game xD

I didn't want to tie a lynch on the first day cycle when 1 of them was for certain a villager since there's currently only 1 elim and there was a good chance they both are/were village. I didn't think it was a good idea to dwindle our numbers so quickly.

I don't understand why we want to speed along the elim team so quickly when they're surely not going to use every conversion right away. Not unless the inquisitor is just really suicidal xD

oh that reminds me, we should know that there's always a chance for conversion until it shows up in the writeup that the inquisitor died. Because we know then that they used the last one and we'll know how many elims there are at that point. So I doubt that will happen early on.

Anyways, rest in peace Aman. If you were right about this plan then apologies for doubting you but at least now there might be a conversion like you wanted. xD

[DeTess]

7 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I don't understand why we want to speed along the elim team so quickly when they're surely not going to use every conversion right away. Not unless the inquisitor is just really suicidal xD

I think ti was mostly because a 1-man elim team or a 2-man elim team makes a pretty big difference. A 1-man elim team would act fairly indistinguishable from a villager, because they don't have a team they'd want to keep alive. Once there's 2 elims then ideally we'd start seeing signs of potential team-work.

Also, just as a heads-up for everyone: My activity is about to go down significantly. I should still be able to check in regularly and post  1-2 times a day, but I likely won't have time for any really in-depth analysis as I kinda need to finish writing a master's thesis over the next month  

[BrightnessRadiant]

23 minutes ago, Randuir said:

I think ti was mostly because a 1-man elim team or a 2-man elim team makes a pretty big difference. A 1-man elim team would act fairly indistinguishable from a villager, because they don't have a team they'd want to keep alive. Once there's 2 elims then ideally we'd start seeing signs of potential team-work.

Right. That's very true. That's what I get for posting early in the morning after getting only 6 hours of sleep. xD I knew I had agreed with Aman's plan enough to advocate doing it in a few cycles before but I couldn't remember why I wanted that. Lolz

Also nooooooo our Rand activity. :'( what is your major out of curiosity?

Edit: RP:

Doreen barely flinched when she accidentally pricked herself with the needle. She'd been sewing since she was a child. She now ran the business that her mother once had. Making dresses for all of the stuffy noble women. 

She remembered as a child she'd always dreamed of putting on the beautiful gowns her mother would make and going to a fancy ball with all of the twinkling lights, lilting music, and graceful people. The older she got the more she had seen how those same people had treated her mother. They yelled at her for not working faster, not getting the details the way they imagined them, or the dress making them look fat when that was all their doing. 

She brushed the fine silk between her fingers, sewing careful gentle strokes and remembering her mother hard at work every day and night of her life. Those spoiled pigs didn't deserve such finery. Doreen sighed. It was a living. She couldn't deny that she still loved seeing the finished products on display. She was proud of her handiwork.

She heard that someone had been killed in the city and it hadn't been human. That sent a shiver down her spine. Even after that, people were still going out and about tonight to their grand parties. She doubted even a war would stop them.

Edited July 30, 2019 by BrightnessRadiant
Added RP

[Rathmaskal]

Rebel sneezed.  The ash was heavy tonight.  As with most nights, he was out on the streets, no real shelter available to him.  He was a rebel after all.  It's funny how that happens sometimes.  The name you are given starts to define who you are.  He hadn't planned on being a rebel.  But growing up, he's always been treated as such and had just kind of grown into it.  He'd heard about the inquisitor in town.  No good could come of that.  Well, he was awake now.  Time to figure out how he was going to eat today.

~~

So, good news is that Aman's sacrifice may not be in vain.  And, if I'm interpreting everything correctly, we're going to see either a kill or a conversion tonight, but not both?

Some thoughts on D1:

• 9 votes leaves us right in the sweet spot even if there was a full elim team where I think it could be either V/V or V/E up for lynch.  So I'm not really going to try to read much into the voting.  OK, I liked, I am actually thinking that it's unlikely that any of the votes on Aman were from the Inquisitor.  So, I'm soft clearing Lum, STINK, and Brightness (as well as Aman :/)
• As for Young Bard's analysis.
  • Well, not sure I agree on Devotary.  Devotary can sound extremely village all the time.
  • I'm reading pretty strong village so far on Fifth, so I'm curious to see what your analysis is at this point.
  • Brightness, I kind of agree with <see above>
  • Araris...well, Araris actually seems less aggressive than usual now that I think about it.  I'm actually going to have to think on that one.  It might just be a change in strategy since Araris seems to get killed early on fairly often due to his aggressiveness, but I'm going to have to think on that...and I'd like to hear other thoughts.
  • STINK.  I haven't played too many games with STINK, but based on the couple I have, STINK's reputation, and reading through some older games, I don't think there are many better ways to describe STINK than 'carefree', so I'm not sure I buy this piece of analysis.
• With the clarification on conversions (thanks Straw) I'm actually thinking Aman's strategy may work out OK.  Grabbing the soother role for a friend could work out fairly well for the inquisitor, so I'd expect that's what we'll see tonight (rather than a kill), although our lurcher(s) (assuming we have any) should still be active tonight.  (No point in not doing so, right?)  So, tomorrow, there should actually be a team of sorts out there.

Anyway, there are my morning musings.

[BrightnessRadiant]

2 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, I'm soft clearing Lum, STINK, and Brightness (as well as Aman :/)

Soft clearing Aman made me chuckle since his alignment was revealed. Guess paranoia of him never dies:P

Edited July 30, 2019 by BrightnessRadiant

[STINK]

28 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

I don't think there are many better ways to describe STINK than 'carefree'

I'm not 'crazy' anymore woohoo

[Araris Valerian]

@Rathmaskal I would sort of say I was less aggressive, although I also was committed to a lynch from the start. No early death can scare me from a D1 lynch . It's more that Aman totally dominated the discussion, while also trying to kill himself, which made it awkward to be aggressive. 

26 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Soft cleaning Aman

I'm not sure what Aman feels about this .

[DeTess]

3 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

What is your major out of curiosity?

Space exploration. So a mix of general rocket science (orbital dynamics, propulsion maths, etc.) and planetary sciences (how to interpret data from remote sensing instruments and general knowledge regarding our solar system).

[BrightnessRadiant]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure what Aman feels about this .

I dunno what you're talking about 

1 minute ago, Randuir said:

Space exploration. So a mix of general rocket science (orbital dynamics, propulsion maths, etc.) and planetary sciences (how to interpret data from remote sensing instruments and general knowledge regarding our solar system).

Daaaaaaang that's awesome!

[Rathmaskal]

2 hours ago, Randuir said:

Space exploration. So a mix of general rocket science (orbital dynamics, propulsion maths, etc.) and planetary sciences (how to interpret data from remote sensing instruments and general knowledge regarding our solar system).

I agree with BR...that's quite an awesome major.  Is that a custom major that you created or does your university actually offer that?

2 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I dunno what you're talking about 

Unsure if you're playing coy here...but I chuckled at the typo as well...  soft cleaning

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

 

5 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay so last cycle Aman asked me towards the end (which I saw after rollover cuz I closed at work) why I thought fifth was village. But I'd like to point out that I never said he was. I only voted Aman when I did because he was in the lead and I was trying to avoid a tie (counting in Aman's soothing) because a lot of people seemed to either forget that a tie would kill all of the people or they didnt care which is kinda concerning to me. Y'all are really bloodthirsty this game xD

I didn't want to tie a lynch on the first day cycle when 1 of them was for certain a villager since there's currently only 1 elim and there was a good chance they both are/were village. I didn't think it was a good idea to dwindle our numbers so quickly.

The point of crafting a tie between Aman and someone else was to get something out of the lynch other than killing a misting for the Inquisitor to use for converting. With Aman being far too willing to die for the Inquisitor, a secondary lynch anywhere else would at least target an actual Inquisitor suspect, even if the odds of success were low.

3 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, good news is that Aman's sacrifice may not be in vain.  And, if I'm interpreting everything correctly, we're going to see either a kill or a conversion tonight, but not both?

Some thoughts on D1:

• 9 votes leaves us right in the sweet spot even if there was a full elim team where I think it could be either V/V or V/E up for lynch.  So I'm not really going to try to read much into the voting.  OK, I liked, I am actually thinking that it's unlikely that any of the votes on Aman were from the Inquisitor.  So, I'm soft clearing Lum, STINK, and Brightness (as well as Aman :/)
• As for Young Bard's analysis.
  • I'm reading pretty strong village so far on Fifth, so I'm curious to see what your analysis is at this point.
  • STINK.  I haven't played too many games with STINK, but based on the couple I have, STINK's reputation, and reading through some older games, I don't think there are many better ways to describe STINK than 'carefree', so I'm not sure I buy this piece of analysis.

The Inquisitor has one action, and has the ability to kill or convert.

Lum's vote for Aman is the least indicative of the three, as the votes were 3-2-2 between Aman, Fifth, and Lum with a decent chance that she would die if Aman retracted his vote. It looks like her vote for Aman over Fifth was for the purpose of getting a misting killed for the Inquisitor. The theory that BR purposely tried not to vote is almost certainly false, as even for an Inquisitor such a ploy would only make ties more challenging to force/avoid.

[DeTess]

14 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

I agree with BR...that's quite an awesome major.  Is that a custom major that you created or does your university actually offer that?

It's one of the two space-focused tracks that's offered by the aerospace engineering faculty (the other is focused on the technical details of making spacecraft works, such as power generation and heat management and the like).

I should probably attempt to say something useful in addition to talking about my studies

Anyway, I've quickly skimmed over those last-minute voting shenanigans again, and I've got to say that fifth's vote is quite interesting. Every other post or so off his has been giving me elim vibes, especially that first post of his this night cycle. However, moving his vote like that really isn't an elim thing to do unless the inquisitor has some sort of vote manip power that made him feel safe, so this makes me lean more village towards him, unless some evidence of inquisitor uber-rioting or whatever surfaces.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Randuir

[Araris Valerian]

@Randuir I highly doubt that the Inquisitor would rely on vote manipulation to survive, because that would block both conversion and killing at night, unless the emotional allomancy didn't cost an action. 

[DeTess]

18 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Randuir I highly doubt that the Inquisitor would rely on vote manipulation to survive, because that would block both conversion and killing at night, unless the emotional allomancy didn't cost an action. 

Hmm, you're right. I think I had some rules from a different game in my head where there was both a day and a night action, but I assume that's not the case in this game. It wasn't in LG32, at any rate.

[Fifth Scholar]

23 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well shoot, I definitely had the votes mixed up in my head. If I had realized that Aman had 4 votes, I definitely would’ve added a vote on Fifth.

Thanks 

12 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Stink - Controversial pick here, and the only one that I think I really have to justify in this list. I (like most people, it seems) am in a PM with them, and I really just can't picture them as the Inquisitor - I'm getting much more of a care-free vibe from them than I'd expect if they were the Inquisitor. It's the one that's most likely to change as I see more of their opinions and we have more information, but I think for now I'm comfortable placing them in this category.

There are some people who I don't think there are enough posts to analyse yet, and so I'm not going to bother analysing yet because I'll only make myself paranoid:

Ark (Ray of Sunshine), Doc (I'm in a PM with Doc right now, but it's mainly just catching up/NAI content), Snipexe, shanerockes, Rathmaskal, and Sart.

So that leaves potential Inquisitors that I want to do analysis on as:

Hael, Burnt, Striker, Lumgol, Randuir, and Fifth.

Of those, I think the most likely Inquisitors would be Lumgol, Hael, and then Burnt or Rand, in that order, but that's going off the top of my head before I've done any proper analysis, and may change once I do. Striker and Fifth I don't think are the Inquisitors, but I don't have quite enough trust in them to rule them out of my analysis just yet, and want to do a bit more analysis first.

It’s been pointed out, but certainly worth repeating that a casual style is true of STINK irrespective of his alignment; one need only look at QF25 for proof that the carefree and jestful nature he employs extends across both alignments. That said, I’m also reading him mostly as village, if only off gut. 

12 hours ago, Young Bard said:

So that leaves potential Inquisitors that I want to do analysis on as:

Hael, Burnt, Striker, Lumgol, Randuir, and Fifth.

Of those, I think the most likely Inquisitors would be Lumgol, Hael, and then Burnt or Rand, in that order, but that's going off the top of my head before I've done any proper analysis, and may change once I do. Striker and Fifth I don't think are the Inquisitors, but I don't have quite enough trust in them to rule them out of my analysis just yet, and want to do a bit more analysis first.

This is an interesting shortlist; I liked your point on Lum, but am generally uncertain where the suspicion on Hael is coming from; was it his posts last cycle in defence of Aman? I’ve been getting a villager read, if anything, off them. As for Burnt I have a PM with her but haven’t seen much one way or the other, and feel generally worse about Rand than I usually do, though it’s partly from lack of content, and he’s already clarified that he’ll be busy, so I’m not minding it as much as I usually would. I do need to reread the thread before giving any further opinions, though.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The theory that BR purposely tried not to vote is almost certainly false, as even for an Inquisitor such a ploy would only make ties more challenging to force/avoid.

Any reason this is blue, out of curiosity? 

[Straw]

The turn is now over!

[Straw]

During the night, the people of Luthadel chose to put aside their differences to live in peace and harmony. As they slept, the Inquisitor crept into the graveyard and drove a spike through the dead body of MaiKall...

---

A spike was used, and a player was converted!

GM Notes:

UberTin is a spike that grants the following ability: You can choose two players, and spy on any PM that is made between them.

Tineye message order will be randomized each night.

PMs are open.

The Day will end on August 1st, at 4:00 PM EST. I'm travelling that day, but I should still be able to do turnover at the correct time.

Tineye Message #1:

If you wish for happiness, you must follow the path of the Tineye.

Look, before you act.
Listen, before you speak.
Taste, before you swallow.

Only when you have mastered the art of patience, can you truly know peace and contentment.

Tineye Message #2:

Let's make some spiked punch. Going down the string of names last night, looks like we have some raspberries today, strawberries, more raspberries... ooh, a different shade this time. Going to be very colorful today. Figs, too, although that would be rather strange in punch. Honeydew would be nice though. Nice and sweet.

One person should know who I am right now. I don't suspect that person as of now, but I would advise for my fellow Tineyes to keep their guard up and stay hidden. I suspect the Inquisitor may want us on their side.

Tineye Message #3:

Ladieswandagentlemen,tI'dclikehto?herebyvanounce=thatdIQdidwyou4allwa9greatWfavorgthisXcycle.cIndeed,QI used my nigh omnipotent powers to provide you all with PM's yesterday. Unfortunately, chances are high that I can't be bothered to employ my nearly infinite capabilities in such a mundane fashion again today. To this end, I urge those more naturally suited to this activity to pick up the slack, while I move on to greater things.

-Signed, a bored Mistborn

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)

4. StrikerEZ (Variel)

5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)

6. Lumgol (Teraval)

7. Ax's Boyfriend (Voidapple)

8. shanerockes (Bill)

9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)

10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill)

11. Amanuensis (MaiKaal) Soother

12. BrightnessRadiant (Doreen)

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)

17. Sart (TBA)

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

 

[STINK]

Bard