Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[A Joe in the Bush]

Spoiler

 

Ahahaha, now that that's done, let's see who the Eliminators got banned?

@May I suggest The Only Joe? They banned the Resident Code Monkey? Well crap, now who is going to keep the site running? Ah well. I'm sure they'll figure something out.

Player List

Votes:

Bard (3) - Fura, Drought, Walin
Drought (6) - Bard, Lum, Fifth, Aman, Steel, Sapphire
Walin (3) - Randuir
Kidpen (1) - Elandera

[Amanuensis he/him]

Sorry Drought 

[DeTess she/her]

I can see the logic behind banning them to check whether the naming scheme worked out, but ockams razor was very much against it, as if he was an elim, either a whole bunch of other player where lying, or a whole bunch of role manipulation was going unclaimed.

Anyway, since @Kidpen's vote manipulation failed to materialize, I'd say we've found another spammer.

[CadCom he/him]

Since we're back to the weekend, I suppose it's time for the Joe disease to spread, and there is a possibility that I won't my use other role until the next turn, therefore giving me an opportunity to spread the Joe Disease. And so, I'd like to ask everyone real quick(Or at least Lumgol) Who all has been converted so far. That has got to be a part of the team of Joes. We must know who has and hasn't been converted, so we don't all throw our eggs in one basket and convert the same person at the same time.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder
grammatical fixes

[Kidpen he/him]

Shoot. I was focused on homework last night and forgot that it was the end of the cycle. I totally get it if a lynch forms on me, but ideally I'd like it if a second choice is either tied with me or one behind me. That way I die if I'm lying, and if I'm not I have at least a 50/50 chance of surviving.

[Furamirionind]

2 hours ago, Kidpen said:

Shoot. I was focused on homework last night and forgot that it was the end of the cycle. I totally get it if a lynch forms on me, but ideally I'd like it if a second choice is either tied with me or one behind me. That way I die if I'm lying, and if I'm not I have at least a 50/50 chance of surviving.

Sounds reasonable to me.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

I redirected Drought to Itiah last night.

[Furamirionind]

Sorry for double posting

8 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Since we're back to the weekend, I suppose it's time for the Joe disease to spread, and there is a possibility that I won't my use other role until the next turn, therefore giving me an opportunity to spread the Joe Disease. And so, I'd like to ask everyone real quick(Or at least Lumgol) Who all has been converted so far. That has got to be a part of the team of Joes. We must know who has and hasn't been converted, so we don't all throw our eggs in one basket and convert the same person at the same time.

N1: Lum -> Elandera
N2: Lum, Elandera -> Rath, ??
N3: Lum, Elandera, Rath -> CadCom, Fura.
So currently, the list is Lum, Elandera, CadCom, Fura, and possibly one other. (Though I suspect it is just us 4)

It has been a quiet couple days (And by quiet, I mean SE average, but quiet for this game). However, I am back! (For 2-3 days, then I am gone again) So I will try to do what I can!
 

Xino - I can confirm that Xino did swap Drought and Itiah last night, and indirectly roleblocked me by doing so. : /
I general think that Xino is unlikely to be the convert target, so I am placing Xino as a  strong village read

Lumgol - Her role of "JOE" has basically been confirmed, I think she would have make an excellent convert the first couple cycles.  The thing is, she abstained from the vote with Alv. At that time, the spammers had already lost 3 of their number.  They wouldn't willingly give up a 4th. It would have been pretty simple for Lum to break the tie in favor of CadCom like she was originally planning, under the guise of trying to make him win.  If the convert comes before the lynch, it is possible Alv may have converted Lum the same day, however at that point, I think there would be other people more suited to the convert.  Lum's willingness to bandwagon and change votes repeatedly, while often a sign of a spammer, seems reminiscent of last game where she was village.

Ada - By far the most cleared eliminator this game. While I can't recall them ever roleclaiming, they have had a strong hand in getting each of the four spammers killed this game.  Makes them a prime suspect for a conversion, though that is highly IKYK.  If they were converted, I suspect it would have been C2. The play Alv made looks like an all in play, and has been called one by a few people.  However, the spammers would know that he only had a 25% chance of making it through unscathed. In a 4 way tie, they absolutely could have saved him.  This makes me think they must have had a backup plan.  Either the other spammers were/are inactive, and therefore unable to save Alv, or they were Okay with the 75% chance of him getting caught.  If they were Ok with him getting caught, I am sure at least one spammer was voting on him.
I have Ada as a slight village as I think this is too obvious pick a convert, and my suspicions for him are in many cases the same I have for Elandera.  However I recognize that this is all very IKYK.

Elandera - I am not going to get into the Fifth/Elandera argument right now as I haven't read through it thoroughly enough yet.  However, Elandera's claimed role is, I believe "Disciple of Herowannabe".  An easy claim to make as IIRC Jondesu had already died at that point.  She claimed that as Mailliw got another Disciple of Herowannabe claim, the third must be lying.  As neither Mailliw nor Elandera seemingly followed up on this, it does look a bit strange.  However, Maill didn't speak up against Elandera either.
Elandera has been very active in lynch discussions.
Elandera's vote on Alv is, in my opinion, just as suspicious as Ada's.  If the spammers are in fact active, they must have planned on gaining something from Alv's death.  Elandera being further cleared would do that.

I was planning on going into more detail on Elandera, then doing Fifth, but I ran out of time.  I will try to expand a bit more tonight.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Furamirionind

[CadCom he/him]

34 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Sorry for double posting

N1: Lum -> Elandera
N2: Lum, Elandera -> Rath, ??
N3: Lum, Elandera, Rath -> CadCom, Fura.
So currently, the list is Lum, Elandera, CadCom, Fura, and possibly one other. (Though I suspect it is just us 4)

Thanks, I will plan on converting someone not on this list tonight. 

I also apologize for my inactivity. I have a theory that due to the weekend, as well as the fact that we don't have any very solid suspicions, that discussion has slowed down drastically. Hopefully there will be a fair amount of beneficial scan actions or other sorts of actions tonight that will give us some insight going forward.

 

[Lumgol she/her]

Yeah, the list as far as I know is myself, CadCom, Fura, and Elandera. I've just sent in an action to convert Rand.

[Elandera she/her]

57 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

N1: Lum -> Elandera
N2: Lum, Elandera -> Rath, ??
N3: Lum, Elandera, Rath -> CadCom, Fura.
So currently, the list is Lum, Elandera, CadCom, Fura, and possibly one other. (Though I suspect it is just us 4)

I didn't convert N2, but scanned Rath instead. That's when I got the return of Metacognition, Joe and village elim.

58 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Elandera - I am not going to get into the Fifth/Elandera argument right now as I haven't read through it thoroughly enough yet.  However, Elandera's claimed role is, I believe "Disciple of Herowannabe".  An easy claim to make as IIRC Jondesu had already died at that point.  She claimed that as Mailliw got another Disciple of Herowannabe claim, the third must be lying.  As neither Mailliw nor Elandera seemingly followed up on this, it does look a bit strange.  However, Maill didn't speak up against Elandera either.
Elandera has been very active in lynch discussions.
Elandera's vote on Alv is, in my opinion, just as suspicious as Ada's.  If the spammers are in fact active, they must have planned on gaining something from Alv's death.  Elandera being further cleared would do that.

My original role was Disciple of Herowannabe. Joe revoked that role when Jon died, and I was given two options for a new role. The one I chose actually turned out to be Fifth's claim, which is why I initially cleared him when he roleclaimed. I knew the role name (since it was given to me), and how he described the mechanics matched what I'd been told by Joe. 

I had claimed to Mailliw on D1, proving my role by telling him who he had PMs with. I was the DoH claimant, and misunderstood when he'd said in thread that Jon was the third Disciple role he'd heard of up to that point. I was concerned initially (because I misunderstood) that it meant three DoH claimants including Jon, but it turned out the third was likely Rae as Disciple of Gamma (who through PMs, I knew they'd been talking and claiming to each other). That's why I haven't returned to the problem of three DoH claims. There just wasn't any.

When my DoH role was revoked, Joe explained it to those who I had claimed to so they didn't immediately turn on me for 'lying'. That's why Mailliw had that cryptic post saying he still trusted the claim.

My new role is Roleplayer (I know, not helpful because Fifth's already claimed that). The first night I received something from the new role (N2) I got Blue Drafter from QF18. That's the ability I used to scan Rath. N3, I received Kindness from MR22. It didn't matter, since I didn't get lynched. I have a new ability this turn, though I'd rather not say until the day turn when I can use it to help prove things if needed.

And about the vote on Alv. I'm not entirely sure why people think it was suspect. Until I voted, Alv wasn't even up for the lynch as part of his gambit. I made sure to put him there so the stakes increased. If I were a spammer, along with Alv, I could easily have voted on someone else to make it a 4-way tie that didn't include him. He had a 25% chance of having his gambit pay off (25% chance to guess the correct person to die). But with him in the running, the chances of making it through actually decreased, since not only did he have a 75% chance of not guessing the right target and thus being lynched the next day, but a 25% chance to die right away. No spammer ability (aside from a possible convert ability) would have saved him from the lynch.

[CadCom he/him]

I just want to remind everyone that just because someone has become converted to the JOE faction, this does not change their original wincon. Lum, me, Elan and Fura should not be any more or less cleared of being a spammer due to us being in the JOE disease. 

I also believe that tomorrow I will have the combination of motivation and time necessary to put forth some sort of basic analysis, and hopefully continue contribute more once again.

[xxGaea]

I managed to unban myself @A Joe in the Bush =P

Roughly 8 hours and 45 minutes remain in this cycle--don't forget to place any action orders~

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

And lo, the saints sang a resounding chorus of “blegh, I’ve been reading the thread but have had basically no time to post...”

Later tonight, I’ll hopefully craft an analysis of a few people. If you’d like to make suggestions, that might be helpful in giving me a bit of a focus. 

Edit: Got distracted by schoolwork and debates in Discord, which figures. >> Somebody please hold me to analysis of Metabard, Kidpen and Elandera tomorrow.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Seventh Saint

[I think I am here. he/him]

Hello! I am back! Analysis will come later.

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 hours 15 minutes.

[Walin he/him]

Well, that’s a shame. Drought was a good player. In terms of suspicion, I’m thinking either CadCom or Kidpen could be an elim, on account of having two syllables in their usernames. Two is the same number of syllables that “elim” has, and the number of characters in all three words are multiples of two!

Beyond that, this is Weekend 4–two multiplied by two—and the total posts in this thread so far from CC and KP is a multiple of two—4, to be precise.

It all adds up. One of them is an eliminator, and is using the other to cover their tracks.

————

Welp. I ran out of ideas for internet references in my posts; I’ve done SCP, greentext, copypastas, and reddit thread titles. Now, I did a variant on Half-Life 3/Illuminati confirmed jokes.

Anyone got more material I could use?

[xxGaea]

12 minutes remain in the cycle, my darlings~

[A Joe in the Bush]

Spoiler

Kidpen was banned! He was a Discussion Leader!

Player List

[xxGaea]

The cycle has ended, please wait for the new one to be posted, darlings~

[Amanuensis he/him]

Whelp. Contribution Crusader, we need to let each other who we plan on targeting during the weekend because I wasted my action discovering Kid did nothing, only for them to die to who I'm pretty sure was you. I checked and they didn't meet the criteria, and there is no way the Spammers feel comfortable enough to ruin a potential lead like that, imo. It's possible the last one is inactive.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Adavantos

[Elandera she/her]

I'm very concerned that it seems two nights in a row the spammers haven't appeared to submit a kill. Either they're biding their time, hoping we'll kill each other off while they appear inactive, or they actually are inactive. However, it could also be them setting up an IKYK kind of situation, where they are killing off the top suspicions to make it appear like they are misplaced village kills.

I'm going to put a vote on Araris for being one of the least active, but likely to be a convert players thus far.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Or, they're trying to kill me? Not sure if it even shows up if they try to kill me. There are certainly advantages to having stolen a spammer role. With the mighty power of Eliminator, Spammer, and Troll, nothing can really stop me. 

Edited April 2, 2019 by NotASteelClone

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, interesting.  I find that very unexpected.  Whoever is calling the kills is definitely not choosing the obvious ones.  The people most inclined to do this are, in my experience, the more experienced players...

I historically have set too much store by who "should" and "shouldn't" have died on a given night.  However, Kidpen was under suspicion.  He would have wasted valuable discussion time today.

Ninja'd by Ada

1 hour ago, Adavantos said:

Whelp. Contribution Crusader, we need to let each other who we plan on targeting during the weekend because I wasted my action discovering Kid did nothing, only for them to die to who I'm pretty sure was you. I checked and they didn't meet the criteria, and there is no way the Spammers feel comfortable enough to ruin a potential lead like that, imo. It's possible the last one is inactive.

Umm, well, In my last post, I assumed that the final spammer(s) were active, however, if Alv was the last active one, then that would also justify an "all-or-nothing" plan like what he had, as he was under lots of suspicion at the time as well. People who would qualify would seem to be Snipexe and Araris.  While Xino and Walin haven't posted much game related data, they have both posted enough I would expect them to be submitting actions.

While this is a possibility worth considering, I ONLY think it is worth considering if the Crusader claims their kills.  It is also very possible that there is only one spammer left, and it is the convert.  In that case, they are very possibly using their action to maintain their village persona.  If this is the case, they are likely a trusted member of the village at this moment... waiting to strike...

I will go through and do more analysis tomorrow, but for now, this is my basic list.

Spoiler

Eliminator = Green
Neutral = Gray
Spammer = Red

Elandera
Xino
Bard
Rand
Steel
ITIAH
Fifth
CadCom
Lumgol
Snipexe
Araris
Ada
Walin

I unfortunately do not have any spammer reads right now.  But I have lots of people I am unsure about.  Please don't take that list too literally, as it was made off the top of my head.  I will cross reference that list with my current thoughts later.

For now, I suspect the convert is hidden among us.  This person would be known to be a villager, and probably has shared they have a role and are expected to use it. To build off of Ada's old list of roleclaims:

Quote

• Elan - Disciple of Herowannabe/JOE
• Xino - redirected Lum to Rath?
• Rand - Band Wagon Leader
• Steel - Multi-Boxer
• Fifth - Roleplayer
• CadCom - Also Roleplayer???
• Lum - JOE
• Aman - Super Active
• Snipexe - Some kind of healer

Those that are not bolded may not be expected to take actions.

Elandera - Maill trusted her early on, so assuming she was village then and spammer now, she would have been converted likely C2 like I suggested last post.  Have been getting a general village vibe from her, but I have until now been looking for players that started as spammers, not a convert.  So I will reread in case I missed something.

Xino - Seemed inactive the first half of the game.  Seemingly got significantly more active the last couple cycles.  This is interesting as this is when the convert likely would have happened, however, he has commented a couple times on trying to avoid the CC, which I can understand.  Xino seems generally like a bad choice of convert to me as he had contributed little to discussion and definitely wasn't trusted in any sense by that point.

Rand - Has been looking closely at inactives.  A tactic I tried as spammer elim in LG50, was I didn't put in a kill when I was the last one in the off chance I would be able to convince people the final elim was inactive.  However, though lacking in analysis on active players, he has been questioning other player's analysis and not antagonizing people for their mistakes.  So while I was planning on voting on him originally, I am probably going to wait.

Lum - An interesting one.  Lum has been a good convert target all game in my opinion.  Claiming to be a conversion role is also interesting, and has been making me subconsciously think that Lum *can't* be the convert, while obviously that is untrue.  Her starting with the JOE role is basically undeniable... Has been active... Idk.  Can confirm she has been converting players, so can't be killing people if a spammer.

Aman/Ada - I don't really have anything to add onto what I said before.  I am tempted to vote on Ada... But the reasoning is purely speculative, so I will hold off until I get to my real analysis.

Snipexe - Claimed healer after being prompted last night.  The thing is, If Snip was the convert, I don't see why he would ever bother using his action.  He would just be killing people and just claim he has been healing the wrong people each night.

---

I am going to put a temporary vote on Lum, but I will be looking again at this

Lumgol/Mailliw

 

EDIT: Also, I think I would like to hear @I think I am here. roleclaim... (Even if it is encoded)

---

Edited April 2, 2019 by Furamirionind
Added "EDIT"

[DeTess she/her]

Elandera Furami (edit: oops)is looking in an interesting direction by looking at which players have 'free' night actions, but I'll have to disagree on the  (maybe) lack of elim kills being an elim ploy. If there where less of us alive I could see it, but right now there's at most 2 elims left on a total of 14 players, so that gambit would get discovered before it did irrecoverable damage(as the last two possible inacitve elims are Araris and Walin). What might be possible is that, for whatever reason, the convert has a role they need to use every night or risk getting found out, stopping them from putting in the elim kill, with either no OG eliminators left, or the last OG eliminator being inactive.

On that front, I'm once again curious about the crusader. As far as I can tell they refrained from killing for several cycles, and now seem to be back after I stated some suspicion for their lack of action in the thread yesterday, so it might be that they're the convert. They're also the only player I can think off outside the Joes with a visible enough night action that it might force their hand. As I don't know who they are, I'll leave it to Ada to figure that one out for now.*

Speaking of the Joes, I just got converted, and assuming that all other Joes have converted as well, after next night we'll have our secondary win-con complete as everyone should have been converted.

*anyone wants to take a bet that Ada is both the convert and the crusader, and his claimed role was intended to fake us all out?  

Edited April 2, 2019 by Aranduensis