Long Game 51: A Traitor in the Obligators

[Jondesu]

19 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

16. Jondesu (Remart)
One of my highest suspicions after disappearing after almost getting lynched. Also has an activity level that seems to fit our traitors. 

I suspect my activity level is a pretty poor fit for someone who would have been converted, and I'm obviously not the Seer.  Maybe you should rethink that part...

I'm going to side with Aman on the Araris lynch this cycle.  Sorry, I don't have much to add to the reasoning, but I'm trusting his logic in this case.  Plus it's Christmas and my brain is fried.

[Mailliw73]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

(1) Araris Valerian: Amanuensis, 

(1) Karnatheon: Furamirionind,

I was about to ping a ton of people to try to get them voting but then I realized this turn doesn't end for another 3 days??? Needless to say that was a surprise.

Oh, yeah, that’s good to know. I didn’t catch that at first either. 

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

I suspect my activity level is a pretty poor fit for someone who would have been converted, and I'm obviously not the Seer.  Maybe you should rethink that part...

I'm going to side with Aman on the Araris lynch this cycle.  Sorry, I don't have much to add to the reasoning, but I'm trusting his logic in this case.  Plus it's Christmas and my brain is fried.

Sorry, I didn’t explain that super well. I meant that I’m looking at those who have been active enough to participate in discussion but remain on the fringes and disappear for the most part, if that makes sense. If it doesn’t make sense, I’ll try again another time to explain what I mean. 

[Rathmaskal]

So, I started making this post for the night cycle, but didn't get around to finishing it...let's see if I can get this done today.

First off, great job everyone on the Itiah lynch.  Looking back at the lynch and how the votes appeared, I would have to say that mine actually looks as one of the more bussy votes...

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the elim team decided to bus the seer here for a couple reasons:

• At this point, Itiah was already under a decent amount of scrutiny, so it's a good time to bus a teammate at that point.
• The seer seems like too important a role to bus, but once out of atium, kind of loses their extra usefulness.  Depending on who was converted, the seer may be the most useless of the remaining elims.

I honestly find this quote from Snipexe kind of odd (and I believe someone else pointed this out as well - ahh, it was Coop, found it):

Quote

Awww crap, I just realized that you are not in the pm I thought sent to you. No wonder you aren’t responding. I bet people are going to think that I am lying so...

itiah Snipexe

I suddenly realize why there’s a lynch against me  

I wasn't basing my vote on Itiah entirely on the previous Snipexe post, but that definitely made me feel a lot better about my vote.  I'm not sure if this should clear Snipexe or put him squarely in our crosshairs for the next lynch.  I could see arguments for both sides:

• Snipexe.elim
  • didn't realize how effective the Itiah lynch would be and was trying to deflect votes/suspicion last-minute - this doesn't hold a ton of water, though, since Itiah was already the vote leader and this only pulled two more votes
  • could have set this up with Itiah (possibly with the influence of other elims) to seem more village...not a bad play if so
  • Coop brought this up previously, but worth noting again, this brought the vote to 5-5 - as I mentioned earlier, there wasn't much point in specifically protecting the seer at this point, but that still could have saved Itiah.
• Snipexe.village
  • playing with imperfect information
  • got lucky on an accusation made with incorrect information

Next, I don't think any has mentioned yet that there seems to have been some vote manipulation to put another vote onto Itiah, so it seems likely that the village has at least one vote manip role remaining.

At this point, the seeker (assuming just one...if there are multiple, awesome...but I doubt that) should be able to set up a network of trusted players, which is quite good.

Next, I'm looking through interactions between Itiah and other players that seem to have anything AI-related:

• Quote

  I don't have any significant suspicions, but I do have some minor ones of Guacless (itiah I think?) and CadCom.  The Guacless suspicion is just a gut read I suppose, but in a game with only 1 elim Cycle 1, I don't know if I really want to trust my gut if it has anything to do with that cycle...

  Fura D2

• Itiah votes on Alvron D2...not worth looking into

• Itiah votes on Lumgol D3 - noted as basically random and reason for the next couple votes at least - Itiah later defended the vote a bit.

• Gancho votes on Itiah D3

• CadCom votes on Itiah D3 (following Gancho's lead)

• Fura votes on Itiah D3 (this is kind of what I was looking for with regards to Fura...not changing viewpoint about Itiah)

• Itiah is lynched

• Alvron posts requesting a coinshot hit Itiah after Itiah survives lynch...  CadCom follows up with " ^^^^That^^^^  "...Fura follows up with " ^^^^That^^^^   "...  Gancho follows up with " ^^^^That^^^^^ "

**Note, at this point I'd be willing to commit to the idea that Itiah would not have converted anyone else after getting lynched once, likely due to lack of atium.  If Itiah had 4 beads, then this may be incorrect - conversions N1 and N2, lynch D3, conversion N3, lynch D4.  If Itiah had 3 beads, then it would have been conversions N1 and N2, lynch D3, lynch D4...so it all kind of depends on how many beads you think were distributed this game...I'm willing to bet 3 though**

• Gancho votes on Itiah D4 - I'm willing to clear Gancho
• Alvron votes on Itiah D4 - RIP
• Lumgol votes on Itiah D4 - might be willing to clear Lumgol...definitely leaning village
• Snipexe votes on Itiah D4 - analysis above
• Rath votes on Itiah D4
• Fura votes on Itiah D4 - I think I was already willing to clear Fura...although if Itiah had 4 beads...converting Fura N3 would have been a bold play that could have worked out rather well.  Overall, with the number of players and the inherent advantage of being able to have elims fly under the radar through the early parts of the game (due to conversion) I'm really expecting there to only be 3 beads.
• Itiah defends against Snipexe
• Snipexe switches vote to self - again, analysis above

So, from that, I'm willing to at least soft clear Gancho, Lumgol, and Fura...likely CadCom as well.

Overall, though, there's not a TON of information between Itiah and other players.  So, who doesn't show up at all in that conversation?

• Araris
• Mailliw
• Coop
• Karnatheon
• Nohadon
• Amanuensis
• Jondesu (although I think I just didn't note a quick post about Itiah mentioning Jondesu...feel free to fact check this)
• STINK (although I believe STINK has been mostly afk from the site since noting computer problems)

OK, and my work computer isn't great...and already crashed on me once in the middle of writing this...so I'm going to post now and continue my thoughts - time to post some suspicions.

Also, I'm unlikely to be very active tomorrow through Friday - my parents are coming into town for the rest of the week to visit.

Edit: Since no one seems to be browsing right now except Straw

I started doing an analysis on Mailliw, specifically with regards to some of the general posts being made about suspicions and such, fully expecting to come away with an airtight case for Mailliw.elim...  And I'm coming away with nothing for now.  I was specifically looking here for any inconsistencies with noted suspicions or voting patterns that may imply a conversion and here's what I saw on this line of thought:

D2: Vote on Rath
D3: Suspicion on Araris, Alvron, CadCom, Rath
D3: Vote on Araris
D3: Switch vote to CadCom (also notes that he? sees the reasoning behind the current lynch train but doesn't want to join - guess I missed this in my Itiah analysis in my last post)
N3: Not as suspicious of Rath due to PMs
D4: Focusing on inactive players: Stink, Jondesu, Snipexe?, Aman, Karn, Coop; vote on Stink
D4: Switch vote to Karn after Fura mentioned that Stink was likely afk due to technical problems
D4: Switch vote to self
D4: New thoughts for lynch - Jondesu, Snipexe, CadCom, Aman; also notes would be OK with Coop, Nohadon, or Stink
D4: Switch vote to Snipexe
D5: Assuming I'm interpreting the post correctly, Rath, Snipexe, Jondesue, followed by Karnatheon and Amansuensis with CadCom in question as well

The main thing I'm seeing (and probably what brought Mailliw to my attention in the first place) is the inconsistency on me.  First gut read, then vote, then not as suspicious, then back near the top of the list.  After actually analyzing these posts, though, I'm less convinced - seems like most of us this game where it's tough to nail down suspicions, especially now that we have lynched the only person who was elim from the start.

Edited December 24, 2018 by Rathmaskal
Changed parenthesis to period at the end, blued activity post, then added thoughts

[Snipexe]

Yay! We got em’ 

To clarify what happened in regards to the messages and why I voted for myself at the end of last cycle, I had essentially attempted to forward a pm chain to ITIAH (before he was lynched the first time) but due to some complications between switching tabs, and being on Mobile, I must have somehow not included ITIAH himself in the pm, and didn’t realize. I only realized last cycle when I was checking the chain I had sent to him.

I completely understand the suspicions people had and still had now. Because I had imperfect information I was basically really lucky. As a counterpoint to those who are suggesting that I was trying to deflect votes, or distract from the ITIAH lynch, I think its safe to say that it make more sense for an elim to bus an already under suspicion rather then deflecting them in an incredibly obvious way.

[CadCom]

On 12/23/2018 at 3:40 PM, Amanuensis said:

It's not a perfect list, but this is where I stand. I'm offering Gancho my trust because he voted for ITIAH twice and most importantly, didn't hedge at all when voting for him the second time. Mailliw I'm trusting because apparently as of last night it's been confirmed by a Seeker that they're a Smoker. I'm trusting Lumgol for now because of how hard ITIAH was going after them. Snipexe is green because he was similarly at odds with ITIAH.  @STINK has been too inactive to be a valid conversion target tho I would be happy if he started getting involved soon.

So, I was going to vote for Maill, because, like others have expressed, his posts have just felt off to me this game. But while reading over today's posts, prior to analyzing all of Maill's posts, I saw this post, where Aman mentions that Maill was confirmed to be a Smoker.

Can anyone else confirm this? Because if so, that would essentially clear Maill, considering that some believe that no conversion happened last night, and also considering that Mail was scanned. It's not a 100% case, because it always is possible that Itiah had one last piece of Atium and gave it to him. But, I'm willing to soft clear him if someone else can confirm this. Also, since we still have a seeker, as long as we can confirm that the messages we are receiving are actually coming from seekers, we should be able to hard clear any further reads. 

Also, speaking of this, post by Aman, It has caused me to want to re-analyze Aman's posts and Lumgol's posts, to see if anything is fishy in either of theirs

On 12/24/2018 at 9:55 AM, Rathmaskal said:

At this point, the seeker (assuming just one...if there are multiple, awesome...but I doubt that) should be able to set up a network of trusted players, which is quite good.

Considering that There are still traitors out there, how is it safe for seekers to set up networks of trusted players? 

 

I hope to get a real analysis post put up before too long, but I'll see if that actually comes to fruition. 

[Amanuensis]

(2) Araris Valerian: Amanuensis, Jondesu,

(1) Karnatheon: Furamirionind,

So, I know everyone has been busy with the holidays. Can we get some more votes in, though? Today is the last day of the turn and it would really be a shame to waste a chance to gather data from today's lynch.

@Araris Valerian, @Karnatheon, what do you guys think about the votes on you? Who would you rather us lynch today?

@Mailliw73, @Rathmaskal, @Snipexe, @Cadmium Compounder, you guys have posted since people voted. What about your perspectives?

@Gancho Libre, @Lumgol, @STINK, @Coop772, @Nohadon, are you all still alive? Same questions.

[Araris Valerian]

I think Nohadon and STINK are probably village due to their extreme inactivity. I started to be suspicious of Jondesu because of his activity pattern, which could have caused a failed N2 kill. He also hasn't contributed that much to discussion. Of all the votes during Itiah's first lynch, I find Mailliw's the most suspicious:

Quote

On 12/18/2018 at 11:21 AM, Mailliw73 said:

@Ookla the Duck @Ookla the Libre Do these messages have any kind of time frame given about when these people were scanned? It would help to know if they were scanned N1, when everyone but the Seer would’ve come back clear, or N2. 

Sorry, I mean to tag @Ookla the Lumgol instead of CadCom, got the messages mixed up in my mind. 

And woah, now we’ve got a lynch train going. I’m not really sure where this entirely came from but I do see the reasoning behind it. I don’t agree enough to join it, and I am definitely more suspicious of CadCom now. I’d especially like to hear from Gancho if he knows when the scan took place? If it was N2 as well, I’ll probsvly remove my vote. If N1, I’m going to stick to it. 

Araris. 

I'm not quite sure what people find suspicious about me in this lynch, since my vote on Cadcom happened before Itiah was a lynch option. The second one I come off a bit worse on, and I'm honestly surprised at myself for not voting for Itiah in retrospect. If I get lynched this game I feel my vote that cycle justifies it :/.

I just noticed that right after we lynched Itiah the first time, Rath posted a list of players he thought likely to contain the Seer, and it doesn't have Itiah in it. That could be oversight, but it seems odd considering that anyone with an extra life is a reasonable suspect for Seer.

I think I'll vote on Rath. I don't think anybody picked up that his analysis didn't include anything about the previous lynch, which seems elimy to me. He also did a large analysis post this cycle but didn't back it up with a vote.

No hard feelings if I die, since I probably deserve it for my Snipexe vote.

[CadCom]

It turns out I have less time available than I thought I would have. My gut has told me something has been off about Maill, but because I can't substantiate it, and it sounds like no one else has been able to either, except that it appears that he did not support the Itiah lynch. I don't think Elim!Mail would do that when it's almost certain that another elim would be lynched 

So, despite the off feeling from their posts. I'm inclined to let him go for now. Now, tie lynches aren't good for the village, since a random player will be lynched in that case, so I don't want to make the lynch tied, therefore, my vote will not be for Karn, 

I was about to vote for Rath, based off of other, less strong gut feelings but then got Ninja'd by Araris. And since I don't have much in the way of evidence, I don't want to place my vote there yet either, because that will cause a tied lynch. I will wait for a couple of hours, and see if I manage to have time to do some real analysis, and then if not, I'll follow my gut, and vote for Rath. 

Edited December 26, 2018 by Cadmium Compounder

[Mailliw73]

So I’ve got to go to work in a minute, and while there, I’ll probbaly only be able to occasionally view the thread, but I’ll try to post if I get a break. 

For now though, just a couple things: CadCom, you mentioned that Itiah could’ve given me his last bead of atium, but he was lynched and I was scanned last night, I presume. So it’d have been after he used his last bead to convert. 

Seeker scans so far: N1: CadCom, N2: Fura, N3: Karn, N4: Maill. So far all village roles. We should be able to trust completely all of the scans from N4 on, unless as Fura mentioned, the Seeker was converted. That makes me more likely to trust Karn and Fura, but only a bit, since they’d be good conversion options. 

I want to make sure we have another good lynch and there aren’t many votes right now. Since I’m not sure if I’ll be able to get on much, I’ll put my vote on Rath since he’s in my top couple of suspicions as of now and the only one from there with a vote. 

[Araris Valerian]

@Mailliw73, can you confirm that you deactivated your coppercloud last cycle?

[Mailliw73]

25 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Mailliw73, can you confirm that you deactivated your coppercloud last cycle?

Yep, I’m not sure how I’d have been seeked otherwise. 

[Araris Valerian]

I just wanted to make sure that a converted Seeker wasn't taking advantage of a revealed role.

[CadCom]

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

For now though, just a couple things: CadCom, you mentioned that Itiah could’ve given me his last bead of atium, but he was lynched and I was scanned last night, I presume. So it’d have been after he used his last bead to convert. 

True. For some reason, I was telling myself that Itiah was killed this cycle. 

I will also place my vote on Rath now, as it appears that should break a tie. 

Anyway, I still don't trust the fact that someone has said that someone was scanned as village means they're village, it's too easy for Elims to fake. If I were an eliminator, and I knew the role of my fellow eliminator, I would be able to create a PM that said "so and so has been scanned and is a village thug." 

Even if I wasn't known to be a seeker, I could add the prefix "You are the last person in a chain. Please pass this information on to the thread. 

Whoever was the first to do that, it was a good idea, but it's also very easy for an eliminator to hide behind.

[Furamirionind]

I dont have as much time as I thought I would this cycle... Hopefully I will be able to get on again before rollover, but no promises.

I am going to switch my vote to Rath due to Araris' reasons.  I dont think my vote on Karn is really doing anything useful at the moment...

Karn

Rath

Edit: ninjad CadCom

@Cadmium Compounder that is the issue I have with the PM chain thing. (Which I think I brought up to a couple people in PMs).

Personally, I havent been seriously trusting the Seeker or vote manip claims in thread.  I doubt I will truly trust them until I know which player is the role that is claiming.  I doubt the seeker will contact me, but I do currently have 1 vote manip player I trust, so that is something...

Edited December 26, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Straw]

Sorry for the late cycle end, I was travelling. Day's over.

[Straw]

[Insert writeup]

---

Rathmaskal is dead! He was an Obligator.

Vote Count:

Rathmaskal (4): Araris Valerian, Mailliw73, Cadmium Compounder, Furamirionind

Araris Valerian (2): Amanuensis, Jondesu

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

The Night will end at 5:30 PM EST on December 27th.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Ookla the Phoenix (AKA xinoehp512) (Neddih) Obligator

2. Ookla the Guacless (AKA I think I am here) (The Legendary Guacless) Seer

3. Araris Valerian (Ookla the Inherited)

4. Malliw73 (Matarn Wachtrot)

5. Alvron (Nameless Obligator #5) Obligator

6. Ookla the Lumgol (AKA Lumgol) (Teraval)

7. Coop772 (Ihcnoux)

8. Ookla the Ring (AKA Karnatheon) (Bessum)

9. Ookla the Gambler (AKA Nohadon) (Velrond Tarot)

10. Amanuensis (Xemalun Renaud)

11. Ookla the Duck (AKA Cadmium Compounder) (Palessi)

12. Ookla the Libre (AKA Gancho Libre) (Erbil Ohcnag)

13. Rathmaskal (Lord Flamingo) Obligator

14. Ookla the Heretical (AKA Devotary of Spontaneity) (Jesorden) Smoker

15. Ookla the Skeptical (AKA Snipexe) (Snipexe)

16. Jondesu (Remart)

17. STINK (Flans Mastic)

18. Ookla the Walinevitable (AKA Walin) (Nedran) Obligator

19. Furamirionind (Furamirionind)

 

[Amanuensis]

5 hours later and no one has commented  because of how little votes there were it's very hard to tell if eliminators even participated. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by Amanuensis

[Mailliw73]

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

5 hours later and no one has commented  because of how little votes there were it's very hard to tell if eliminators even participated. 

Yeah, sadly, the holidays usually kill game activity for a while. 2015 holiday games were like this too when I was playing. They start out strong and then drop of quickly. Hopefully this one comes back in a day or two. 

[Jondesu]

I know I've had a lot going on, and I leave tomorrow morning for a trip during which I'll have very low if any activity. There's always less to say at night anyways, and the holidays are likely taking a big toll.

[CadCom]

So, with only 6 votes, and three candidates at any point throughout the cycle, if an eliminator did vote, that vote would most likely be random. But on the off chance it wasn't at random, It would be best to look at response votes. Also, there's not much more analysis that I think can be done, so without further ado:

So, I'm going to perform an analysis assuming that each candidate is elim.

Assuming Araris is Elim, Fura voted for an alternate lynch option, So did Araris themself. Later, Fura changed their vote so as to secure a lynch past typical vote manipulation. Later Maill voted for the same person Araris voted for, tying the lynch. Then CadCom followed suit, and then as mentioned Fura secured the lynch against him. Assuming Araris is an elim, then my order of most to least suspicious accomplices of the remaining 5 would be 1. Fura, 2. Maill, 3. CadCom, 4. Jondesu, 5. Amanuensis 

Assuming Karn is elim,  The first response was a vote against Araris by Jon, followed by Rath by araris, making it so there were 2 other options on the table. Actually, after that was the entire bandwagon on Rath. Maill, me and Fura. But fura was also the first to vote on Karn in the first place. Assuming Karn is an elim, my order from most to least suspicious accomplices would be  1. Araris, 2. Maill, 3. Jon, 4. CadCom, 5. Aman 6. Fura

We know Rath was village, so there's no purpose in performing an analysis of his elim status. 

If we totalled the numbers from the two, and ordered them from lowest to highest, we would get

Araris(1+x)

Maill (4)

Fura (6)

CadCom (7)

Jondesu (7)

Aman (10)

It's possible that this entire analysis was a complete waste, because it's possible that Araris and Karn ar both village, and in that case, if any elims voted, it could have been anywhere. 

[Araris Valerian]

@Cadmium Compounder I'm not sure how useful or honest it is to out yourself down in any of your suspicion lists, since you know your own alignment.

[Furamirionind]

If araris is an elim, cadcom and Maill would be possible elim candidates due to their pushing the lynch past Araris.

But honestly, I think we are better off doing analysis from previous cycles, as there was so little activity here.  

 

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Cadmium Compounder I'm not sure how useful or honest it is to out yourself down in any of your suspicion lists, since you know your own alignment.

I mean fair enough, but a few games ago, I did analyses where I said to the effect of "I know my own alignment, so I will leave that out, and someone told me that they thought that I should also provide further information about myself. I can't remember exactly what they said, but the message that stuck with me was to do analysis of myself as if I wasn't myself, so others could see how I analyzed myself. 

[Araris Valerian]

That makes sense. I guess my take on it is that elims are already in the mindset of doing "fake analysis", so including themselves in a post like that would be easy.

[Straw]

Night's over. Sorry about all the late rollovers lately, I've had to travel and deal with family stuff.